SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA — North Korean state media on Thursday criticized the United States for a nuclear submarine deal with Australia under the AUKUS partnership signed in 2021, calling it a “threat to regional peace.”

A commentary carried by KCNA said Washington should be wary of consequences for what it said were nuclear alliances, naming AUKUS and the trilateral cooperation with South Korea and Japan.

Australia just made its first $500 million payment to the U.S. under the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal.

Under AUKUS, Australia will pay the United States $3 billion to boost the capacity of the U.S. submarine industry, and Washington will sell several Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia in the early 2030s.

The KCNA commentary also argued the U.S. sees North Korea as an obstacle to its establishment of hegemony in the region and said nuclear states will not sit idly by, referring to itself.

North Korea has been criticizing the trilateral military cooperation between South Korea, Japan and the U.S. and has called the relationship “the Asian version of NATO.”

South Korea’s defense ministry on Thursday said that a joint air drill was held with the U.S. with at least one B-1B strategic bomber taking part.

The drill was to show extended deterrent capabilities by the United States in response to threats from North Korea’s nuclear and missile program, the ministry said in a statement.
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TAIPEI, TAIWAN — Philippine defense officials say they will hold a large, 10-day military training exercise next month, aiming to strengthen the country’s ability to respond to any crisis caused by an “external threat.”

Although Manila did not name China explicitly when it announced the drills — the biggest in recent years — they come as Beijing has increased the frequency of its maritime patrols and coast guard maneuvers around several disputed reefs that lie within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone, or EEZ.

Several of those patrols have resulted in clashes and the use of aggressive maneuvers and accusations of vessel ramming. China, which claims almost all of the South China Sea as its own despite an international ruling to the contrary, insists that its actions have been in accordance with the law.

The Combined Arms Training Exercise, or Catex, will take place March 3-12, involving approximately 6,000 soldiers and live-fire drills involving some of the Philippines’ most advanced artillery weapons.

Expanded drills

In the announcement on Monday, defense officials said that unlike past exercises, this year’s Catex will be conducted across the archipelago, including the northern island of Luzon, the island of Visayas in Central Philippines, and the southern island of Mindanao.

The expanded drills will “strengthen our command-and-control capabilities, further enhancing our preparedness to respond to any challenge that may threaten our national security,” Philippine Army Chief Lieutenant General Roy Galido told media during a news conference on Monday.

Typhon missile system

While the Philippine military is expected to test the Autonomous Truck-Mounted Howitzer Systems, its largest artillery weapon, during the live-fire drills, Galido said the U.S.-made Typhon missile system, which has prompted concerns from China, won’t be part of the large-scale exercise.

The Philippine military is still “appreciating the system and being able to understand how to utilize it in our defense concept,” he told Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post in an interview on Monday.

The deployment of the Typhon missile system to the northern Philippines has prompted concerns from China. During a press conference Friday, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang urged Manila to “remove the [Typhon] system as soon as possible.”

Analysts say the Philippines should focus on building up anti-ship missile capabilities and procuring more unmanned aerial vehicles rather than buying expensive items like submarines, which the Philippines is reportedly considering purchasing from India.

“The anti-ship missiles can survive in a modern war with China, and it can really force the Chinese military planners to rethink their strategies,” Zachary Abuza, an expert on Southeast Asian affairs at the National War College in Washington, told VOA by phone.

Other experts say the military drills and the ongoing efforts to acquire missile or air defense systems are part of the Philippines’ attempt to strengthen its sea capabilities and deterrence against China.

“Given the Philippines’ limited materiel capabilities, these efforts are part of a long-term endeavor that will need continuity to ensure the Philippines will be able to muster the capabilities to pursue the objective of countering China’s maritime aggression,” Don McLain Gill, a lecturer in international studies at De La Salle University in the Philippines, told VOA in a recorded voice message.

‘Aggressive’ China action

The announcement of the drills comes amid another uptick in tensions between China and the Philippines after a Chinese navy helicopter allegedly flew within 10 feet of a Philippine patrol plane near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on Tuesday.

The Philippine coast guard characterized the Chinese aircraft’s actions as “aggressive and escalatory” and said they remained “committed to asserting our sovereignty, sovereign rights and maritime jurisdiction” in the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, Southern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army — China’s military — accused the Philippine aircraft of “illegally” intruding on the airspace above Scarborough Shoal, which China views as its territory, and said its troops “are resolute in defending national sovereignty and security as well as peace and stability in the South China Sea.”

Weakest link?

Experts say the latest incident reflects Beijing’s attempt to test the Philippines’ defense capabilities and the United States’ commitment to supporting Manila, which has a mutual defense treaty with Washington.

“China sees the Philippines as the weakest link in the U.S. security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region, so they are testing how effective Manila can push back against its assertive behaviors,” Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at International Christian University in Japan, told VOA by phone.

He said while it’s important for the Philippines to strengthen defense cooperation with like-minded democracies, including conducting joint patrols and military exercises, Manila should also carefully calibrate its responses to Chinese aggression.

The Philippines’ response should “reciprocate the pressure that the Chinese are putting on them because the Chinese strategic mindset is based on the idea of active defense, which means when they pressure their opponents to escalate the conflict, that gives them the right to escalate their behaviors,” Nagy said.

New legal challenge possible

In addition to strengthening defense capabilities, the Reuters news agency reported last month that the Philippines may soon initiate a second legal challenge against China over the South China Sea by suing Beijing for allegedly damaging the marine environment.

Despite the report, Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo said in response to a question from VOA during a public event held by the London-based think tank Chatham House on Tuesday that Manila has no plan to launch a legal challenge against China right now.

Joshua Espena, a lecturer of international relations at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines, told VOA that since the Philippines is gearing up for the parliamentary election in May, Manila is unlikely to initiate a new legal challenge against China at this point. “The 2016 South China Sea Arbitration ruling gives the Philippines sufficient ground to do what the government needs to do,” he said.

As the U.S. focuses on facilitating a peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, Nagy said, China will likely maintain its pressure campaign against the Philippines in the coming months.
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New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said on Wednesday his country must “reset” its relationship with the Cook Islands government after its Pacific neighbor signed agreements with China without consultation.

In a speech to the Pacific Island Political Science Association in Wellington, Peters said Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown’s opaque dealings with Beijing was the latest attempt to test constitutional ties with New Zealand.

“While the connection between the people of the Cook Islands and New Zealand remains resolutely strong, we currently face challenges in the government-to-government relationship,” he said.

“We are going to need to reset the government-to-government relationship.”

The Cook Islands is a self-governing nation and maintains free association with Wellington, sharing a head of state and citizenship rights. It is permitted an independent foreign policy, but the two countries are required to consult on security, defense and foreign policy issues.

Brown’s visit to Beijing this month resulted in a strategic partnership with China spanning education, the economy, infrastructure, fisheries, disaster management and seabed mining.

It set off alarm bells in New Zealand due to concerns with China’s growing presence in the region and the potential threats to the country’s national security.

While the Cook Islands government has released details of the strategic partnership, Peters said New Zealand had not seen a number of memoranda of understanding also signed with China.

“New Zealand and the Cook Islands people remain, as of this evening, in the dark over all but one the agreements signed by China and the Cooks last week,” Peters said.

Brown’s deal with China follows an attempt by the Cooks to create its own passports and citizenship, a proposal New Zealand said would require the islands to become fully independent to do.

Separately, Peters also addressed tensions with Kiribati after its government canceled a planned visit by New Zealand officials at short notice.

Kiribati has also signed a series of bilateral deals with China in recent years.

Peters said Wellington had committed more than $57 million in aid to the Pacific island nation over the past three years and needed to reassess how funds were being used.

 
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As pro-democracy publisher Jimmy Lai spoke in his defense at a Hong Kong court Tuesday, his son Sebastien Lai was in Geneva calling for the United States and other world leaders to help secure this father’s release. 

Speaking on Tuesday at the latest hearing in his national security trial, Lai, 77, denied any intention to incite violence among protesters.

He defended an opinion piece published in 2019 in the now-shuttered Apple Daily newspaper that he founded in which he suggested that pro-democracy protesters establish a leadership structure to weed out those who wished to engage in violence during protests that year.  

“By saying they should choose a leadership group, [it means that] they should put down some principle or bottom line for the valiant acts which, basically, is for them to stop the violence,” Lai said in court.

The British national has been standing trial for more than a year on charges of collusion with foreign forces and sedition under Hong Kong’s national security law.  Lai rejects the charges, which foreign governments and press freedom groups have said are politically motivated. 

Hong Kong authorities deny that the trial is unfair and have previously told VOA that the government respects press freedom and the rule of law.

Lai has been in solitary confinement since late 2020. Sebastien Lai raised concerns about his father’s health as he advocated for him in Geneva.  

“I ask that you join my call to free Jimmy Lai and champion him for all he’s given in the hope of freedom,” the younger Lai said Monday at the annual Human Rights and Democracy summit in Geneva.  

When Beijing’s national security law was enacted in Hong Kong in 2020, Sebastien Lai said his father knew he would be a target.

“But he refused to leave,” he said. “Six decades after landing on the shore of this island in pursuit of freedom, he decided to stay and stand with his fellow protesters.” 

Jimmy Lai was born in Guangzhou, China, and fled to Hong Kong when he was 12. He worked in a garment sweatshop before eventually founding the successful clothing brand Giordano. He later moved into media, founding Apple Daily in 1995.

Both the United States and Britain have criticized Hong Kong’s case against him. During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump in October said he would “100%” get Lai released, without specifying details.

Sebestien Lai said Trump’s comment gave the family “a lot of hope.”

But he cautioned that time is running out for his father, who has diabetes. The publisher’s international legal team says he isn’t receiving adequate medical care, which authorities deny.

“His body is breaking down,” Sebastien Lai told Reuters ahead of the summit. “Time is running out for my father.”  

Lai’s international legal team urged global leaders to stand up for press freedom at the U.N. Human Rights Council next week. 

“How the world responds will send a vital message to authoritarians across the world,” Caoilfhionn Gallagher, head of Lai’s international legal team, told Reuters.  

Gallagher and her team at the London law firm Doughty Street Chambers have faced significant harassment for their role defending Lai.

On social media and in email, Gallagher has faced threats of death, rape and dismemberment, The Guardian reported. She has also been targeted with hundreds of attempts to hack her bank account.  

The Bar Council, the representative body for barristers in England and Wales, expressed concern about the harassment.  

Some information in this report came from Reuters.  
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Manila, Philippines — The Philippines has detected foreign attempts to access intelligence data, but its cyber minister said on Tuesday no breaches have been recorded so far.

Attempts to steal data are wide-ranging, said minister for information and communications Ivan Uy. Advanced Persistent Threats or APTs have repeatedly attempted but failed to infiltrate government systems, suggesting the country’s cyber-defenses have held firm.

APTs are a general term for cyber actors or groups, often state-backed, that engage in malicious cyber activities.

“These have been present for quite some time, and threats come from many actors, but a big majority of them are foreign,” Uy told Reuters.

Some of these threats, which Uy referred to as “sleepers,” had been embedded in systems before being exposed by government’s cyber security efforts.

“Why are these things operating in those systems, without even anybody calling it out?,” he said.

So far, the government has not seen any cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, he said.

“Hopefully it’s because our cyber defenses and cyber security are strong enough,” he said.

Uy acknowledged the difficulty of attributing cyber intrusions to specific attackers, as they sometimes leave misleading digital traces.

However, the government is working through diplomatic channels and sharing intelligence with the military, including with other countries, to validate threats and strengthen defenses, he said.

Last year, the Philippine said it thwarted attempts by hackers operating in China to break into websites and e-mail systems of the Philippine president and government agencies, including one promoting maritime security.

Uy described the escalating cyber threats as part of a global arms race, where nations and criminal organizations exploit digital vulnerabilities for financial or strategic gain.

“World War III is happening and it is cyber,” Uy said. “These weapons are non-kinetic. They are cyber, digital, virtual, but it’s happening. The attacks and defenses are happening as we speak, without any physical manifestation.”

Beyond cyberattacks, Uy has also flagged a surge in deepfakes and what he referred to as “fake news media outlets” aiming to manipulate public opinion ahead of the Philippines’ mid-term elections in May, and the ministry has deployed tools to combat them.

“Misinformation and disinformation are riskier with respect to democracies like ours, because we rely on elections, and elections are based on personal opinion,” Uy said.
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WASHINGTON/TAIPEI — Taiwan is exploring buying arms worth billions of dollars from the United States, sources briefed on the matter said, hoping to win support from the new Trump administration as China continues to apply military pressure on the island. 

Three sources familiar with the situation, speaking to Reuters on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation, told Reuters that Taiwan is in talks with Washington. 

The package is meant to demonstrate to the United States that Taiwan is committed to its defense, one of the sources said. 

A second source said the package would include coastal defense cruise missiles and HIMARS rockets. 

“I would be very surprised if it was less than $8 billion. Somewhere between $7 billion to $10 billion,” the source added. 

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. However, U.S. national security adviser Mike Waltz has said he wants to speed delivery of weapons to Taiwan. 

Taiwan’s defense ministry declined to comment on specific purchases but said it is focused on building its defenses. 

“Any weaponry and equipment that can achieve those goals for building the military are listed as targets for tender,” it said. 

China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan strongly objects to China’s sovereignty claims and says only the island’s people can decide their future. 

Trump-Taiwan relations 

U.S. President Donald Trump unnerved chip powerhouse Taiwan on the election campaign trail by saying the island stole American semiconductor business. This month, he threatened tariffs on chip imports. 

But his administration maintained diplomatic support for the Chinese-claimed island. 

Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba issued a joint statement on Feb. 7 opposing any attempt to change the current situation in the Taiwan Strait through force or coercion. The U.S. State Department also removed language on its website that it does not support Taiwan independence, a move praised by the island’s government. China has urged the U.S. to “correct its mistakes.” 

Taiwan plans to propose a special defense budget that prioritizes precision ammunition, air-defense upgrades, command and control systems, equipment for the reserve forces and anti-drone technology, a third source familiar with the matter said. 

During his 2017-2021 term, Trump established regular arms sales to Taiwan, including multibillion-dollar deals for F-16 fighter jets. The Biden administration continued these sales, though often with smaller price tags. 

Taiwanese officials see encouraging signs from Trump’s administration even as tariff threats weigh on that optimism. 

Taiwan does not believe Trump is looking to make a “grand bargain” with Chinese President Xi Jinping to sell out Taiwan’s interests, one of the sources said. Trump is more concerned with putting tariffs on semiconductors, the source said. 

In another sign of U.S. commitment to Taiwan, the top U.S. diplomat in Taiwan, Raymond Greene, will retain his post, three sources told Reuters, even as other U.S. diplomatic postings undergo major reshuffles. 

A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said Greene remains director of the American Institute in Taiwan, the unofficial U.S. Embassy in Taipei.
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Taipei, Taiwan        — China has launched a new round of diplomatic outreach to European countries amid rising tension between the United States and its European allies.

While top U.S. officials and European leaders clashed over issues such as values, democracy and Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi held bilateral meetings with several top European officials, including EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

“There is no fundamental conflict of interest or geopolitical conflicts between China and the EU,” Wang said during his meeting with Kallas on Saturday, adding that Beijing “supports all endeavors conducive to peace and backs Europe in playing a significant role” in the peace negotiation process regarding the war in Ukraine.

The EU response was somewhat more reserved, with Kallas saying the EU was ready to “continue with dialogue and cooperate in selected areas, such as trade, economic affairs, and climate change.” He urged Beijing to halt exports of dual-use goods to Russia, which she said fuels Moscow’s ongoing war against Ukraine.

Wang’s remarks were in stark contrast to U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s criticism of European countries. Instead of highlighting the threats posed by Russia and China, Vance accused European government of censoring right-wing parties and failing to control migration.

“What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America,” he said in a defiant speech that stunned European officials in Munich.

Several European leaders quickly rejected Vance’s remarks, with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius saying the U.S. vice president’s characterization of European policies was “unacceptable.”

The rare open clash between the U.S. and European countries came as top U.S. officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, national security adviser Mike Waltz, and Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff flew to Saudi Arabia on Sunday for talks about the Ukraine-Russia war with Russian diplomats.

To the surprise of many European leaders, U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg said in Munich that European countries wouldn’t be part of any peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which would be mediated by the U.S.

Analysts say China’s effort to strengthen engagement with Europe is part of Beijing’s plan to take advantage of divisions between Washington and its European allies.

“China’s posture is about exploiting the perceived mistakes of any U.S. administration,” said Mathieu Duchatel, director of international studies at the French policy group Institut Montaigne.

He told VOA by phone that the current tension between the U.S. and European countries has created an opportunity for Beijing to “weaken the transatlantic alliance on China policy.”

Given that U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on European countries, other experts say the growing tension in transatlantic relations could force the EU to moderate its policies towards China.

“Since Europe can’t afford to wage two trade wars at the same time, it will be difficult for the EU and EU member states to maintain critical policies toward China,” Matej Simalcik, executive director of the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, told VOA in an interview in Taipei.

In recent weeks, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has pushed the EU to adopt more assertive policies against China, has repeatedly said the bloc is open to improving relations with China.

Europe “must engage constructively with China – to find solutions in our mutual interest,” she said during a keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month.

US-European ties expected to hold

While European countries may consider adjusting their China policies, some European analysts say it’s unlikely for these attempts to turn into a fundamental shift of European policies towards China and the U.S.

“The U.S. and Europe are each other’s most important trading partners, so I don’t think there will be a [complete] transatlantic break,” said Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

European countries “are testing the grounds and seeing what can be done, but at the same time, European officials have said whatever happens with China, it must be fair,” she told VOA by phone, adding that these factors will prevent the EU from “walking back” their earlier positions on China entirely.

Additionally, Duchatel at Institut Montaigne said Beijing’s decision to appoint former Chinese ambassador to France Lu Shaye, a prominent “wolf warrior diplomat,” as its special representative for European affairs means China is unlikely to make major concessions in its relations with the EU.

“Lu’s appointment represents inflexibility on everything that matters,” he told VOA, adding that some European diplomats said the new Chinese special envoy would “turn any diplomatic meeting into some sort of ideological confrontation that leads to no common position” between Beijing and European countries.

While China and the EU’s fundamental differences over issues such as Beijing’s partnership with Russia and the trade imbalances remain unresolved, some Chinese academics say the growing tension between the U.S. and European countries still offers an opportunity for Beijing and Europe to “increase mutual trust.”

“The growing tension in transatlantic relations has created a new environment for China to moderate relations with the EU, but it doesn’t mean European countries will reduce their criticism over Beijing’s partnership with Russia or China’s human rights record,” Shen Ding-li, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, told VOA by phone.
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SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has paid his respects at a family mausoleum to mark the birthday of his late father and former leader Kim Jong Il, state media KCNA said on Monday.

Kim Jong Il’s birthday, which falls on Feb. 16, is widely celebrated as a major holiday in North Korea, called the Day of the Shining Star.

But it was the first time in four years that the young Kim visited the Kumsusan Palace of Sun in the capital Pyongyang, which houses the embalmed bodies of his father and grandfather, for the anniversary.

Accompanied by Kim Yo Jong, his sister and a senior ruling Workers’ Party official, among other aides, Kim Jong Un paid homage “in the humblest reverence,” KCNA said.

“He expressed his solemn will to devote himself to the sacred struggle for the eternal prosperity of the country, the security of the people and the promotion of their well-being,” it said.

The Kim dynasty that has ruled North Korea since its founding after World War II and has sought to strengthen their grip on power by building cults of personality around them, though Kim Jong Un has shown signs of increasingly trying to stand more on his own feet without relying on his predecessors.

In another dispatch, KCNA said Kim attended a groundbreaking ceremony on Sunday for the final phase of his pet project to build 50,000 new homes in Pyongyang.

The ambitious initiative was launched in 2021 as part of Kim’s five-year plan to boost the economy and designed to distribute at least 10,000 new apartments in Pyongyang each year, though some analysts have questioned its feasibility amid international sanctions and economic woes.

During the ceremony, Kim lauded construction workers and officials for achieving nearly 400% progress last year compared to 2020 and pledged another plan to continue expanding the city.

The project would “usher in a new era of prosperity of Pyongyang in which the ideal streets of the people to be proud of in the world are built every year,” KCNA said.
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TAIPEI, TAIWAN — China and the Cook Islands on Friday signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, but the lack of transparency around the details has alarmed New Zealand, the South Pacific state’s closest democratic ally.

While details of the agreement remain unclear, public statements from Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown and the islands’ Seabed Minerals Authority signaled that the Cook Islands and China would look to deepen cooperation in areas such as deep-sea mining, infrastructure enhancement, climate resilience, and economic cooperation.

The signing of the agreement is part of Brown’s seven-day diplomatic tour to China, during which he visited several Chinese research institutions and met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in the northern city of Harbin.

Li said Beijing is willing to “deepen political mutual trust and expand practical cooperation with the Cook Islands,” while Brown said his country will “strengthen multilateral coordination on climate change and in other areas, and push for the sustained, in-depth development of the bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership.”

Analysts say the agreement is Beijing’s latest effort to increase its influence in the Pacific region amid growing tension between some Pacific countries, including the Cook Islands and Kiribati, and such democratic allies as New Zealand and Australia.

“China benefits from friction between longstanding partnerships in the Pacific as it seeks to position itself as an alternative partner,” said Anna Powles, an associate professor in security studies at Massey University in New Zealand.

New Zealand has expressed serious concerns about the deal between the Cook Islands and China, criticizing the South Pacific country for lack of transparency and consultation with Wellington over the details.

The Cook Islands has a free association agreement with New Zealand, which allows it to manage its foreign affairs while requiring it to consult Wellington on issues related to foreign policy.

“Under our constitutional arrangements, we expect, you know, matters of defense and security to be transparently discussed between partners. That’s all we’re asking for here,” New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon told a news conference Monday.

Despite New Zealand’s concerns, Brown has characterized conversations around the deal as “guided by what is best for the Cook Islands” and said “there is no need” for Wellington to get involved in the negotiation of the agreement with China.

Meanwhile, China said its relationship with the Cook Islands “does not target any third party, and should not be disrupted or restrained by any third party.”

In addition to the lack of transparency and consultation, some experts say the China-Cook Islands agreement could also contain “dual civil-military use technology and infrastructure.”

“This directly affects New Zealand and Cook Islands’ security and defense,” Anne-Marie Brady, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand, told VOA in by email.

Tensions between Kiribati and democratic allies

Tension is also rising between New Zealand and Kiribati, another South Pacific state. After failing to secure a meeting with Kiribati President Taneti Maamau in January, New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said Wellington would review development funding to Kiribati following the diplomatic snub.

“The lack of political-level contact makes it very difficult for us to agree on joint priorities for our development program and to ensure that it is well targeted and delivers good value for money,” Peters’ office said in a statement issued late last month.

In addition to Peters, Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles did not secure a meeting with Maamau during a trip to Kiribati last month, but he stuck with the original plan by delivering a patrol boat to the Pacific Island country.

Powles in New Zealand said Maamau’s decision not to meet with Peters and Marles may reflect a shift in Kiribati’s diplomatic focus.

“Kiribati’s primary bilateral relationships appear to be Fiji, Nauru, and China, and the lack of engagement with partners such as New Zealand reflects this,” she told VOA by email.

Other experts say that while Kiribati and the Cook Islands are not necessarily looking to abandon their partnership with New Zealand, China will be looking to “capitalize” on recent events.

“China would seek to undermine those relationships and say ‘the West is paternalistic and colonialist and doesn’t genuinely have your interests at heart as China does,’” Blake Johnson, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told VOA by phone.

Beijing’s attempts to increase diplomatic efforts in the Pacific also come as the United States freezes funding for foreign aid and New Zealand threatens to review development funding for Kiribati.

Since most Pacific Island countries rely heavily on foreign aid, Johnson said a potential lack of funding from democratic allies could force countries in the Pacific region to seek support from China. “China can be responsive when it wants to fill those [funding] gaps,” he said.

To counter China’s attempt to increase diplomatic presence in the Pacific region, Parker Novak, a nonresident fellow at the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, said democratic countries, including Australia and the United States, should continue to provide support to Pacific Island countries.

Australia, the U.S., and other like-minded countries should continue “to foster positive, consultative relationships that help Pacific Island countries meet their development needs and provide a credible alternative to PRC inducements,” he told VOA by email. 
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TAIPEI, TAIWAN — The Philippines is increasing efforts to strengthen defense cooperation with several like-minded democracies amid ongoing tensions with China in the disputed South China Sea. 

Manila is trying to conclude major defense pacts with Canada and New Zealand and explore possibilities of expanding joint military drills with the United States, its main defense partner.

Analysts say the development is part of Manila’s effort to counter China’s aggressive maritime activities near several disputed reefs in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims almost the entirety as its territory.  

“The Philippines is trying to boost their capabilities to sufficiently deter China by putting a lot of emphasis on the Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States while broadening the net of cooperation to other like-minded democracies,” said Collin Koh, a maritime security expert at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.  

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. described the defense pacts with Canada and New Zealand as part of Manila’s efforts to “build and strengthen” alliances with like-minded countries.  

“The status of visiting forces agreement with New Zealand is an important part of … both countries’ and multilateral countries’ initiatives to resist China’s unilateral narrative to change international law,” he told journalists on the sideline of an event on Feb. 6.  

Meanwhile, the Canadian ambassador to the Philippines, David Hartman, said at a press event on Feb. 7 that the visiting forces agreement would enable Canada to “have even more substantive participation in joint and multilateral training exercises and operations with the Philippines and allies” in the Indo-Pacific region.  

Some Philippine analysts describe the signing of the agreements as part of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s efforts to “reset” the country’s long-term strategic interests. 

As China continues to challenge different countries’ territorial claims across the Pacific region, “the Philippines’ efforts to consolidate more agreements with allies fits Manila’s need to defend its maritime territories and safeguard the freedom of navigation in the region,” Joshua Espena, a resident fellow at the Philippine-based International Development and Security Cooperation, told VOA by phone.  

Since about one-third of global trade passes through the South China Sea, Koh in Singapore said other democratic countries view signing defense agreements with the Philippines as a way to safeguard their strategic and economic interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

While the Philippines’ efforts to strengthen defense cooperation with other democracies may not fundamentally change China’s behaviors in the South China Sea, “it is still a concern for China when you have so many partners being militarily involved with Manila,” Koh told VOA by phone.  

Apart from negotiating defense pacts with Canada and New Zealand, the Philippines is also looking to expand joint military exercises with the United States.  

During a call on Tuesday, the Armed Forces of the Philippines chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. and U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff Gen. CQ Brown talked about the “military modernization initiatives, Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement sites and increasing the scope and capacity of joint exercises in the Philippines,” according to U.S. Joint Staff Spokesperson Navy Capt. Jereal Dorsey. 

In addition to the discussions, the Philippines has conducted a series of joint drills with the U.S. and Canada since last week, a development that China said undermines “peace and stability in the South China Sea.”

While countries around the world are bracing for uncertainties extending from the foreign policy of the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, some experts say recent developments suggest the U.S. may continue to uphold its defense partnership with the Philippines.  

“The people [that] the Trump administration has put into key security roles are mostly China hawks, so they see the China threat as being very real, and the Philippines remains on the front line [of that threat,]” said Raymond Powell, director of Stanford University’s Sealight project, which tracks Chinese maritime activities across the Indo-Pacific region.  

He said the Philippines may “stand to gain” from the Trump administration’s foreign policy direction. Manila “may have one of the strongest arguments” to convince the U.S. to shift resources to the Indo-Pacific region because “they are on the front line,” Powell told VOA by phone.   

As the U.S. and the Philippines continue to uphold their defense cooperation, China has described the partnership as “extremely dangerous.” 

“China will not sit idly by when its security interests are harmed or threatened,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said during a regular press conference on Wednesday.

To counter the Chinese coast guard’s aggressive operations in the South China Sea, Brawner Jr. said Wednesday that the Philippines hoped to buy two more submarines and BrahMos missiles in India. The Reuters news agency reported that New Delhi is expected to sign a $200 million missile deal with Manila in 2025. 

Powell said the additional missiles could strengthen the Philippines’ deterrence against China, while Manila may need to put a lot of effort into familiarizing its military forces with the submarines.   

Despite Philippine President Marcos Jr.’s recent attempt to “offer a deal” to reduce tension in the South China Sea, Powell said Beijing’s aggressive posture will make it hard for the proposal to materialize.

“We’re seeing much heavier [Chinese] Coast Guard and militia activity around Scarborough Shoal, and I don’t see a lessening of tension there,” he said, adding that tensions between Beijing and Manila in the South China Sea will likely “plateau” in the near future.
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PENTAGON — U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has called for NATO’s European members to increase their role in the defense of Europe as the United States focuses on defending the alliance’s Pacific flank.

It is a move that he says will likely require European allies to significantly increase defense spending from 2% of GDP to about 5% of GDP.

“We can talk all we want about values. Values are important, but you can’t shoot values, you can’t shoot flags, and you can’t shoot strong speeches. There is no replacement for hard power,” Hegseth told reporters on Thursday at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

Last year, NATO’s European allies collectively spent 2% of their GDP, amounting to about $380 billion, for the first time after setting a 2% defense spending goal in 2014. The U.S. currently spends about 3.5% of its GDP on defense. Canada, the other non-European NATO ally, currently spends about 1.4% of its GDP on defense.

“NATO is a great alliance, the most successful defense alliance in history, but to endure for the future, our partners must do far more for Europe’s defense,” Hegseth said. He emphasized that deterrence of Chinese aggression “in the Pacific is one that really can only be led by the United States.”

He said the U.S. does not seek conflict with China, nor does it feel that conflict with China is inevitable, but he contended the administration must work with allies to ensure deterrence in the Indo-Pacific is “hard power deterrence, not just reputational.”

Russia-Ukraine war

On Wednesday, Hegseth said keeping Ukraine’s pre-invasion boundaries is an “unrealistic objective” in its war against Russian aggression, as was the expectation that Ukraine would join NATO. He advocated for a negotiated end to the war with security guarantees backed by European and non-European troops that would not include U.S. forces.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO and whether it should concede any territory should not be decided before peace talks start, referring to Hegseth’s comments as “concessions” made by the United States.

“Vladimir Putin responds to strength,” Hegseth said on Thursday when asked whether the U.S. was decreasing Ukraine’s leverage.

“No one’s going to get everything that they want, understanding who committed the aggression in the first place,” he added, referring to Putin.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated his support for higher defense spending and appeared to defend Hegseth’s comments on Ukraine not joining the alliance. Rutte said on Thursday that while NATO must “make sure that Vladimir Putin never ever tries again to attack Ukraine,” he said, “it has never been a promise to Ukraine that as part of a peace deal, they would be part of NATO.”

The European Union’s top diplomat warned that any peace deal struck between the United States and Russia — without Ukraine or the EU — will fail.

“Trump says that the killing should stop. Putin can stop the killing by stopping bombing Ukraine. This is doable if there is a will,” said Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. She added that any agreement without Ukraine at the table amounts to appeasement.

Kallas’ comments reflected those of many NATO allies at Thursday’s meeting following U.S. President Donald Trump’s call with Putin and Trump’s signaling that talks on Ukraine between the two were imminent.

After Thursday’s NATO ministerial gathering, Hegseth travels to Poland for what the Pentagon said will be talks with leaders about “bilateral defense cooperation, continued deterrence efforts along NATO’s eastern flank and Poland’s leadership as a model ally in defense investment and burden-sharing in NATO.”

Some information for this report was provided by The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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London — China’s demand for road and air transport fuels may have passed its peak, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday, citing data showing that the country’s consumption of gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel declined marginally in 2024. 

Combined consumption of the three fuels in China last year was at 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd), which was 200,000 bpd lower than in 2021 and only narrowly above 2019 levels, the IEA said in a monthly report. 

“This strongly suggests that fuel use in the country has already reached a plateau and may even have passed its peak,” it said. 

After decades of leading global oil demand growth, China’s contribution is sputtering as it faces economic challenges as well as making a shift to electric vehicles (EVs). 

The decline in China’s fuel demand is likely to accelerate over the medium term, which would be enough to generate a plateau in total China oil demand this decade, according to the Paris-based IEA. 

“This remarkable slowdown in consumption growth has been achieved by a combination of structural changes in China’s economy and the rapid deployment of alternative transportation technologies,” the IEA said. 

A slump in China’s construction sector and weaker consumer spending reduced fuel demand in the country, it said, adding that uptake of EVs also weighed.  

New EVs currently account for half of car sales and undercut around 250,000-300,000 bpd of oil demand growth in 2024, while use of compressed and liquified natural gas in road freight displaced around 150,000 bpd, it said. 
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