Bangkok — Thailand’s newest pro-democracy party says it is determined to continue the fight for human rights and democracy despite facing a number of legal and political obstacles.

The People’s Party was formed in August after the dissolution of the reformist Move Forward Party and is already looking ahead to the 2027 general elections.

But some observers and analysts are concerned whether the opposition party will survive and whether its controversial promises will ever be fulfilled.

“In the next the three years it’s a matter of how we can beat the battle for the majority seats in parliament. I have to accept it’s not an easy task to do, but I truly believe it’s possible to achieve,” Natthaphong Reungpanyawut, leader of the People’s Party, told the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand on Sept. 26.

“Our main priorities and policies will be still the same … to protect human rights and to bring full democracy to Thailand. We want to bring power back to the people, and no one can stop that. For the next election, I believe we have to get at least 20 million votes to get the majority seats in parliament,” he added.

The party’s predecessors – the Future Forward Party and the Move Forward Party – received 8 million and 14 million votes, respectively, in the past two national elections.

Thitinan Pondsudhirak, a renowned political scientist in Thailand, says the new party’s ambitious goal isn’t that far-fetched, given the trajectory of recent elections.

“They have good prospects at the polls,” he told VOA. “They’re being deliberately ambitious, but at the same time, it’s not unrealistic, given the jump [from] the popular votes from Future Forward to Move Forward.

“The brick wall that they’re against is not the polling booth. The brick wall is against the royalist establishment,” he said.

The People’s Party has maintained it will continue with one of the Move Forward Party’s main pledges, which is amending Thailand’s “lese majeste” law, which prohibits criticism of the Thai royals.

This is despite Thailand’s Constitutional Court dissolving the Move Forward Party on August 7 after ruling the group’s pledges threatened to overthrow the monarchy. The party’s leaders were also banned from politics for 10 years.

Prior to that, Move Forward had won the most votes in the 2023 general election, before the Thai Senate blocked the party from forming a government, also because of its campaign pledges.

The Future Forward Party was also dissolved in 2020 by Thailand’s Constitutional Court, which ruled the party accepted a donation from its leader, violating election law. The party said it had received the money as a loan, not a donation.

Natthaphong says one of his party’s policy aims is to limit the powers of the judiciary.

“The article-by-article constitution amendment, to limit the power of the Constitutional Court, to not overrule the government that is elected by the people, that is a very practical thing we can do as an opposition party over the next three years,” he said.

But two months into its existence, the future of the People’s Party is already in doubt after Thailand’s National Anti-Corruption Commission said it was investigating 44 lawmakers who formerly belonged to the Move Forward Party. Twenty-five of those lawmakers are current MPs for the People’s Party.

The probe alleges the lawmakers broke ethics rules for supporting a bill that was to amend the lese majeste law.

Sirikanya Tansakun, deputy leader of the People’s Party, is one of the lawmakers being investigated. She told the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand on Sept. 26 that the case doesn’t make sense.

“We are the members of the House of Representatives, and our duty is to pass the laws,” she said. “As we endorsed the law to amendment of Article 112 of the Criminal Code, I don’t think it’s considered a violation of ethics at all, but in this country, anything is possible and totally unpredictable and they don’t think in rational, logical sense.”

Some analysts believe the People’s Party is fighting an almost impossible cause for continuing to achieve these controversial policies.

“The future of the People’s Party is, I think, very murky,” Tita Sanglee, an independent analyst, told VOA. “There are definitely many voters willing to give it a chance, including many conservatives, who’ve become disillusioned by the whole Thaksin-joining-forces-with conservative-parties saga and are desperate for a ‘fresh’ option.”

On the other hand, she added, the party will almost definitely face legal challenges. And even if they stop trying to amend the constitution, many of their proposals remain sensitive.

“Even if The People’s Party wins by a landslide and takes office in the next election, I doubt it can achieve half of what it promises,” Sanglee said.

The party wants to implement more than 300 policy goals, including ending military conscription, promoting labor protections and making it legal to criticize the royal family.

The party labels this as the three “D’s” – demonopolization, demilitarization and decentralization – which began under Move Forward’s leadership.

Pravit Rojanaphruk, a veteran journalist for Khaosod English in Thailand, says both voters and conservatives may not see the People’s Party as anything different to their predecessors, and that may work against the group.

“[The Move Forward Party] have failed to form a government despite having won most seats in 2023 and some voters may doubt if they are really capable of forming a government after the next general election, since all major parties have basically vowed to not join a coalition with them due to their stance on the lese majeste law and the monarchy,” he said.

“The not so obvious obstacle is how they can shake off the image of being branded as the new main threat to national security by conservative people and how to keep their members motivated if they fail to form the government again in 2027,” he added.

But Sirikanya remained confident that change will happen.

“Every time that the system tries to beat us, they have used up their own political capital from those funny rulings or verdicts,” he said. “If we keep fighting this fight, and people back us more and more, someday, maybe in my next generation or the next one, if we keep fighting, we will win.”
…

Taipei, Taiwan — As Israel continues to launch airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, China is stepping up its efforts to play the role of peacemaker in the Middle East, issuing statements of condemnation, but Beijing’s actions are also exposing the limits of its ability to de-escalate tensions, analysts say.

“Beijing wants to create an impression that it is pushing for greater peace and stability in the Middle East, but I’m not sure what all the statements amount to,” said Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore.

After Hezbollah confirmed Saturday that its long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike that took place in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated Beijing’s concern over the escalating conflict and urged all sides, especially Israel, to take steps to “cool down the situation.”

“China opposes the infringement on Lebanon’s sovereignty and security, opposes and condemns any action against innocent civilians, and opposes any move that fuels antagonism and escalates regional tensions,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in a statement released Sunday.

The ministry statement added that said since the escalating tension between Israel and Hezbollah is “a spillover of the Gaza conflict,” the priority now is to “implement relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions, end the fighting in Gaza as soon as possible, and earnestly safeguard peace and stability in the Middle East.”

Sunday’s statement follows Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s meeting with his Lebanese counterpart last Monday on the sidelines of U.N. meetings in New York. During his meeting with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib, Wang also stressed Beijing’s support for Lebanon’s efforts to safeguard its sovereignty and security and called for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza.

In recent months, China has sought to play a bigger role in the Middle East as its trade and diplomatic ties with the region expand.

Earlier in July, Beijing brokered meetings that led to reconciliation between rival Palestinian factions. In March 2023, Beijing helped broker a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to reestablish diplomatic ties between the long-time rivals.

Chong said that while brokering the reestablishment of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia and reconciliation between rival Palestinian factions were low-hanging fruits for China, it remains unclear what Beijing may do to tackle more complicated regional issues, such as escalating tension between Israel and Hezbollah.

“It depends on what Beijing is willing to do [regarding the current conflict], and I suppose they could try to lean on Tehran, which they supposedly have good relations with,” he told VOA by phone, adding that it is unclear how far they can get with Iran on issues related to the Middle East.

Leveraging conflict against US

As part of the attempt to present itself as a peacemaker in the Middle East, some observers say China is focusing on depicting Israel and the United States as aggressors in the ongoing conflict while portraying themselves as siding with “the victims.”

“They are painting this narrative that Israel and the U.S. are on the side of injustice and hegemony, and China is on the side of fairness and justice,” Tuvia Gering, a non-resident fellow at Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, told VOA by phone.

In comments to Chinese state media, some Chinese analysts have argued that it is the U.S. “that allows, tolerates, or even instigates the escalation” of the crisis in the Middle East.

The United States has been pushing for a cease fire between Israel and Hezbollah to avoid further escalation of the conflict and a wider war in the region.

Chong said the ongoing conflict in the Middle East may help to amplify Beijing’s preferred narrative that Washington and its allies are creators of instability, particularly among some developing countries.

“The current situation in the Middle East certainly opens up opportunities for those narratives to perhaps take hold, especially in parts of Africa, Latin America and Asia,” he told VOA.

However, he adds, while China may gain some leverage through this tactic, it needs to put forward something more concrete, such as a tangible peace plan to “capitalize on the sentiment.”

While China seeks to leverage the crisis in the Middle East against the U.S., Chong said the continued escalation of the conflict could also mean more economic pressure for Beijing, as well.

China is the world’s largest importer of oil and after Russia, the Middle East is a key source of energy imports for Beijing to keep its economy running.

“If there is a wider conflict within the Middle East, at a minimum, it may affect energy prices and supplies, which could add to some of China’s ongoing economic woes,” he told VOA.

However, since its primary trading partners in the Middle East are wealthier countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iran, accounting for more than $300 billion in 2023 in exports and imports, some experts say the impact of the ongoing conflict on China’s economic interests is likely to be limited. 

“I would imagine the current situation is very worrying for China and many other countries, but so long as the conflict is primarily limited to Israel dealing with different proxies and militias in its immediate surroundings, I don’t necessarily think that it would translate into a direct threat of Chinese interests,” Mohammed Alsudairi, a lecturer in politics and international relations at the Australian National University, told VOA in a phone interview.
…

Bangkok — A Thai court Monday approved the extradition of a human rights activist to his native Vietnam, where rights groups say he faces a high risk of torture and cannot be guaranteed a fair hearing from his country’s courts. 

Y Quynh Bdap says he fled to Thailand in 2018 to evade arrest for his human rights work on behalf of the Montagnards, a predominantly Christian group of ethnic minorities who live in Vietnam’s central highlands. Thai police arrested him in Bangkok in June at Vietnam’s request. 

Vietnam wants Bdap back for his alleged role in fomenting a riot last year that left nine people dead, including four police officers, according to state media. Bdap says he had nothing to do with the riot. A Vietnamese court convicted him on related terrorism charges in absentia in January and sentenced him to 10 years in prison. 

Vietnam’s government has also labeled his group, Montagnards Stand for Justice, a terrorist organization. 

Bdap’s lawyer, Nadthasiri Bergman, said the judge ignored Thailand’s anti-torture law, which forbids deporting people to countries where they may face torture, claiming it was up to the government — not the courts — to enforce. 

The government has 90 days to decide whether to carry out the extradition request now that the court has approved it, unless Bdap and his lawyer appeal the verdict. Bergman said they would appeal, and that the 90 days would then begin only after the appeals process is over, should they lose again. 

If Bdap is ultimately forced back to Vietnam, Bergman said her client would be at serious physical risk, adding that the threat had been corroborated by the United Nations’ refugee agency, the UNHCR. 

Although Thailand does not legally recognize refugees, the UNHCR’s team in Thailand had granted Bdap one of its own refugee cards after assessing his claims. 

“So long as he has [U.N.] refugee status, it means that he cannot go back to his home country, the country that he fled, because there is an existing and imminent threat to his life,” said Bergman. 

A spokesperson for the Thai government could not be reached for comment. 

Sunai Phasuk, a senior researcher for Human Rights Watch in Thailand, called Monday’s decision by the court “shocking and disappointing” for ignoring both the country’s international obligations and its own law against refoulement. 

“Vietnamese authorities have a long record of mistreating political dissidents, especially those who are on the wanted list like Y Quynh Bdap. So, there are concerns that he will be mistreated in custody of Vietnamese authorities; that includes torture, that includes enforced disappearance,” he told VOA. 

In May, Human Rights Watch published a detailed report alleging Thailand had made itself increasingly dangerous for foreign asylum-seekers over the past decade by engaging in an informal “swap mart” with its neighbors, forcibly returning each other’s dissidents regardless of whether they may be arrested, tortured or killed back home. 

The passage of Thailand’s anti-torture law in 2022 raised hopes that the practice might wane. 

Sunai, though, said Bdap’s case was the first major test of the law’s refoulement clause, and that Thailand had failed. 

“Not only [does] the court decision today put the life of Y Quynh Bdap in danger; it also sets a very dangerous precedent,” he said. “Now, basically, repressive foreign governments can seek cooperation with Thai authorities to hunt down and extradite dissidents who live in exile in Thailand because Thailand cannot ensure their safety.” 

He said countries backing Thailand’s current bid for a rotating seat on the U.N.’s Human Rights Council should use their support as leverage to urge the government not to follow through with Bdap’s extradition. 

Several of the U.N.’s independent rights experts have also urged Thailand to reject Vietnam’s extradition request.
…

…