US aid freeze spells uncertain future for international media

WASHINGTON — On the front lines of the war in Ukraine, local newspapers are vital lifelines in areas where Russia has destroyed cell towers and internet infrastructure.

Journalists provide information about evacuation routes, document alleged Russian war crimes and troop movements, and counter Moscow’s propaganda.

Even a temporary freeze of U.S. foreign aid can mean financial difficulties for small media organizations that rely on outside donors to keep working.

“Many Ukrainian media may now face the threat of closure or significant reduction in operations in the coming weeks,” Sergiy Tomilenko, president of the National Union of Journalists of Ukraine, told VOA.

Ukraine is not alone.

News outlets on the front lines of war and authoritarianism from Ukraine and Belarus to Myanmar are among the organizations affected by a freeze on U.S. foreign aid.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Jan. 20 mandating all federal government agencies pause all foreign development assistance for 90 days.

The directive took effect on Jan. 24 and includes foreign funding from the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID.

A federal judge on Tuesday temporarily blocked a White House directive that ordered a freeze on federal aid programs, but that does not apply to the foreign aid pause.

“Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a Jan. 26 statement. “Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?”

Worldwide impact

Many independent news outlets around the world rely on State Department and USAID funding because they report in repressive environments, according to the JX Fund, a Berlin-based group that supports exiled media.

With the current freeze, news outlets around the world are scrambling to find alternative sources of funding in an attempt to continue delivering the news to their audiences and avoid shutting down, multiple analysts told VOA.

“The general feeling is panic. Panic is the only way to describe the situation,” Karol Luczka, who works in Eastern Europe at the International Press Institute in Vienna, told VOA.

JX Fund managing director Penelope Winterhager agreed. These outlets “are thrown back to emergency mode,” she said.

The measure is estimated to be affecting dozens of independent news outlets in more than 30 countries, according to the Brussels-based European Federation of Journalists, or EFJ.

Maja Sever, EFJ president, called on potential donors to fill the gap.

“The European Union and other donors cannot abandon to their fate journalists who are the best bulwark for defending the rule of law and democracy in countries where they are under threat,” Sever said in a statement Tuesday.

During the 90-day pause, relevant U.S. departments and agencies are required to review their foreign funding and determine whether the aid will continue, be modified or cease altogether, according to the executive order.

Neither the State Department nor USAID replied to VOA’s requests for comment.

In Ukraine

Tomilenko said the aid freeze is creating a dire situation for Ukrainian news outlets on the front line of the war.

“In many areas close to the battle lines, local newspapers are often the only reliable source of information,” said Tomilenko, who is based in Kyiv.

Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has ramped up global propaganda efforts while further restricting independent media inside Russia.

The war has also limited the advertising market in Ukraine, which would ideally be a primary source of financial independence for Ukrainian news outlets, said Tomilenko.

The USAID website says it supports programs that “promote free and independent media” in more than 30 countries. VOA could not determine how much U.S. aid goes to support media outlets in these countries.

In the case of Ukraine, Luczka said, “The previous administration in the U.S. saw the importance of supporting civil society in Ukraine in order to make sure that this country keeps standing.”

The United States has been the strongest player when it came to supporting independent media outlets, according to the JX Fund’s Winterhager.

But even though these outlets receive foreign funding, Winterhager emphasized that “their reporting is independent.”

In Myanmar

Several Myanmar news outlets that rely on financial support from USAID and Internews also find themselves in a precarious situation. Internews is a USAID-affiliated nonprofit that supports independent media.

After launching a coup in 2021, Myanmar’s military arrested journalists and banned news outlets. The crackdown forced entire outlets to flee into exile.

Some outlets now report from the Thai-Myanmar border, while others manage to operate from rebel-controlled regions of Myanmar.

Funding has been among the biggest problems for Myanmar media since the coup.

“It is difficult — or even impossible — for many of them to make commercial revenue in this environment,” Ben Dunant, editor-in-chief of the magazine Frontier Myanmar, told VOA last year. “This underlines the vulnerability of these media organizations whose operations are dependent on the whims of donors in faraway countries.”

Mizzima, one of the most prominent of the country’s news outlets and an affiliate of VOA, is among those affected by the aid freeze, according to local media reports.

Founded in exile in 1998, the media outlet covers news on the resistance against the junta and China’s growing influence in the region.

Another outlet, Western News, has already cut staff, according to its chief editor, Wunna Khwar Nyo.

“We are struggling to survive,” Wunna Khwar Nyo told VOA. “Ultimately, this will also hurt the Burmese people.”

If the funding freeze forces news outlets to shutter, the IPI’s Luczka warned that state-backed propaganda from countries such as Russia could fill the gap.

“When media outlets disappear, they create a void,” Luczka said. “And that void needs to be filled by something.”

VOA’s Burmese Service contributed to this report.

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Myanmar’s rebels closing in around junta into fifth year of civil war 

Bangkok — Myanmar’s rebel groups made historic gains last year, the fourth of a civil war set off by a military coup in February 2021, seizing wide swathes of the country’s west and northeast and overrunning two of the regime’s regional command bases for the first time.

As the war enters its fifth bloody year Saturday, experts tell VOA the rebels are positioned to keep gaining ground in 2025, closing in on more cities and weapons factories vital to the military despite mounting efforts by China, which has billions of dollars invested in the country, to keep the junta afloat.

“The military has lost significant control, and in 2025, based on that trajectory over late 2023 and 2024 … it will still continue to lose control,” said Matthew Arnold, an independent analyst tracking the war.

A BBC World Service study found the junta in full control of only 21% of Myanmar as of mid-November, a patchwork of rebel groups holding 42% and both sides contesting the rest.

With the ground they gained over the past year, Arnold says the rebels have transformed the war by linking up what were mostly pockets of armed resistance into long stretches across the country which the military can no longer penetrate overland.

“The military does not face rebels in this valley or that valley, or this mountaintop or that mountaintop. They say these rebels can now attack us across hundreds and hundreds of miles of contiguous territory where they have absolutely full control,” he said. “It just fundamentally shifted the nature of warfare in the country.”

The rebels’ latest gains have not been even across the country.

In northeast Myanmar’s Shan state, China pressured one of the largest rebel groups in the area, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), into a ceasefire with the military in mid-January after the group had made major advances. Experts tell VOA that China has also started leaning on Myanmar’s largest rebel group, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), to cut back on weapons sales to other groups.

Both the MNDAA and UWSA keep close ties with Beijing, and while the latter are not fighting the Myanmar military themselves, they have been a major source of arms and ammunition for rebel groups that are.

Without their help, other groups have been forced to scale back their push toward Myanmar’s second largest city, Mandalay, which remains in junta control, says Min Zaw Oo, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

He said the squeeze on munitions has even helped the junta reverse gains another group, the Karenni National Defense Force, had been making in Kayah state, just south of Shan.

“They had to stop the offensive and they had to abandon, and now they are losing ground. One of the key factors was they … acquired less ammunition and weapons from UWSA,” said Min Zaw Oo.

Elsewhere, though, rebel groups have continued to press ahead, even defying Beijing’s interests.

In Myanmar’s far north, the capture of rare earth mines that supply China by the Kachin Independence Army in November compelled China to resume some of the border trade it had cut off to try and slow down the KIA’s march south, said Min Zaw Oo.

In the west, the Arakan Army (AA) has nearly completed its sweep across Rakhine state and surrounded an oil and gas terminal on the shores of the Bay of Bengal central to China’s energy projects in Myanmar.

Arnold and Min Zaw Oo say the AA is now pushing farther east with other allied groups into Ayeyarwady, Bago and Magwe regions in Myanmar’s center. Magwe, they add, with its many factories churning out weapons for the military, would be an especially big prize for the rebels and a painful loss for the junta if it were to fall next.

The military’s recent losses to the AA also highlight one of the military’s main problems, says Morgan Michaels of the U.K.’s International Institute for Strategic Studies — a lack of manpower.

Under pressure by rebel groups on nearly all sides, he said, the military could muster few reinforcements late last year as the AA bore down on its regional command base for western Myanmar, which it took, dealing the junta another heavy blow.

The junta began enforcing a dormant conscription law in April to bolster troop numbers being worn down by desertions, defections and battlefield losses, and toughened the rules earlier this month to try and cut down on draft dodgers.

“Basically, the military cannot respond to protect or … wage counter attacks at these very sensitive and important strategic areas because of the manpower issue,” said Michaels.

“Opposition forces have their own limitations,” he added. “But if the military can’t respond, then it’s going to bit by bit lose these areas.”

The rebels’ own problems, the experts say, include an ever-short supply of ammunition and limited strategic coordination between the groups — many fighting for territory for any one of the country’s myriad ethnic minorities — across the whole of the country.

Even so, they say they still expect most of the rebel groups in the fight to keep advancing on the junta into the year ahead.

Conflict data crunched by Michaels and his team at the International Institute for Strategic Studies show no letup in the overall level of violence. Estimates of civilians and soldiers killed in the fighting stretch into the tens of thousands. Over 3 million people have been displaced, and half the country now lives in poverty.

Bolstered by a steady stream of weapons and diplomatic cover from China and Russia, the experts also say the junta remains resilient but add that the collapse of a military battle-hardened by decades of counterinsurgency and once seen as all but invincible now looks plausible.

Much will depend on how much longer Beijing in particular believes the junta has a useful role to play in protecting China’s economic and strategic interests in the country, says Arnold.

“China’s very straightforward, they’re very logical in what they see,” he said. “And at some point, if the military doesn’t really stabilize the situation, China will have to make hard decisions about how much is it willing to support a military that is still losing control. And I think that will be the question for 2025.”

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Experts: Trump faces tough task to denuclearize North Korea 

washington — The White House says President Donald Trump is going to pursue the denuclearization of North Korea, although analysts say that is easier said than done.

White House National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes told VOA Korean via email this week that “President Trump had a good relationship with [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un,” and that Trump’s “mix of toughness and diplomacy led to the first-ever leader-level commitment to complete denuclearization.”

Trump and Kim met three times in 2018-19, in Singapore, Hanoi and over the inter-Korean border at Panmunjom.

Trump, who has recently called North Korea “a nuclear power,” said in an interview with Fox News last week that he would reach out to Kim again, adding, “He liked me, and I got along with him.”

Commitment to denuclearization

Former U.S. government officials say there is no doubt that Trump is serious about resuming talks with Kim.

Susan Thornton, a former senior U.S. diplomat for Asian affairs, told VOA Korean on Wednesday via email it “seems clear that President Trump plans to pick up where he left off with Kim Jong Un in his first administration.” 

 

Thornton, who was acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs during the first Trump administration, said Trump would “like to hold Kim and North Korea to the 2018 Singapore joint statement that included Kim’s commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”  

 

However, “much has changed since then, and Kim’s hand is stronger, so it won’t be easy,” Thornton said, referring to Pyongyang’s development of more advanced weapons.

The state-run Korean Central News Agency, or KCNA, reported Wednesday that Kim said it was “indispensable” to bolster nuclear forces, as North Korea continues to face “confrontations with the most vicious, hostile countries.”

Last Saturday, the North test-fired what it said were sea-to-surface strategic cruise-guided missiles. Kim, who inspected the test launch, said the country’s war deterrence means are “being perfected more thoroughly,” according to KCNA.

Evans Revere, former acting secretary for East Asia and Pacific affairs during the George W. Bush administration, told VOA Korean on the phone Wednesday that Kim would agree to come back to the table if he believed reengaging with Washington “could help him attain any of his own goals with respect to his nuclear and missile programs and relations with the United States.”

Revere is skeptical that any of Kim’s goals would include his regime’s denuclearization.

“The North Koreans might dangle the possibility of a discussion about denuclearization to attract the United States into a dialogue, but it would not be a serious proposal,” he said. “Quite frankly, they are determined to keep their weapons, keep their capabilities, which they regard as essential to their own existence.”

Daunting task

Frank Aum, a senior expert on North Korea at the U.S. Institute of Peace who worked at the Department of Defense from 2010 to 2017, said denuclearization is not a realistic goal to achieve in the near or medium term. 

 

“The best thing Trump can do to increase the odds of North Korea’s engagement is to resolve Russia’s war in Ukraine, which would decrease North Korea’s leverage and signal that a U.S. offer better than the one in Hanoi might be on the table,” Aum said in an email to VOA Korean.

North Korea has sent about 10,000 troops to Russia to help Moscow in its war against Ukraine. In return, North Korea has received military or financial assistance, according to U.S. and South Korean officials.

The February 2019 talks, in which Trump and Kim met for the second time, collapsed after Kim asked for full lifting of sanctions in exchange for the dismantling of the country’s main nuclear complex in Yongbyon, about 100 kilometers north of Pyongyang. Trump demanded more should be done on Kim’s end.

Aum said Kim would likely not have budged from his position then. 

 

“Trump may probe to see if he can get Kim to accept partial sanctions relief instead, like he tried at Hanoi, or offer more for Yongbyon,” Aum said. “It seems clear that Kim will not offer any more security concessions than Yongbyon.”

Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told VOA Korean via email on Wednesday that “for now, it is unlikely any meeting, if it takes place, will reasonably be related to denuclearization.”

“Trump will likely seek to keep the ultimate goal of denuclearization alive while exploring ways in which to reduce the threat,” Seiler said.

Referring to recent comments by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the failure of sanctions to halt the North Korean nuclear program, Seiler speculated that sanctions relief may be offered for significant steps in the new talks between Washington and Pyongyang.

Seiler added that military exercises and extended deterrence may also be reduced in terms of their frequency, volume and scale, in exchange for a halt or slowing of Kim’s long-range missile launches and nuclear tests.

In June 2018, Trump decided to suspend major military exercises with South Korea in an apparent gesture of good faith, right after his first meeting with Kim in Singapore. It raised some fears among South Koreans that such a move could weaken defense against the North.

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Economic hardship affects Lunar New Year celebrations in China

TAIPEI, TAIWAN — The Lunar New Year, also called the Chinese New Year or the Spring Festival in China, is traditionally celebrated with tables piled with food and red envelopes filled with cash for children.

In past years, smoke from outdoor fire pits filled the air throughout the morning and afternoon, as people burned paper money to ensure that even the ancestors can feel the financial boon that the biggest holiday of the year usually brings to the living.

In recent years, however, China’s economic slowdown has altered the atmosphere of Chinese New Year. Facing increasing financial burdens, young people are reexamining long-held traditions as they welcome the Year of the Snake, opting for more frugal alternatives during this year’s eight-day-long national holiday.

A 30-year-old legal worker from Shanghai, who did not want to use his name for fear of reprisal, told VOA that stores selling trinkets and supplies for the holiday appeared unusually deserted.

He said people appear to be forgoing large purchases, which manifests mostly in the custom of giving money-filled red envelopes — the color symbolizes good luck and prosperity in the new year.

“As with goods purchased for the new year, red envelopes have become more simple and less thick,” the Shanghai resident said.

He told VOA he usually gives his niece an envelope with around $140 inside, but this year, he plans to give her $90.

Talk on social media

Frustration with the economy is being expressed on social media — young people are saturating online threads with images and comments describing the pressure and criticism they will encounter during the holiday.

An account on RedNote called “I don’t give a damn about the banana” posted a series of funny images detailing the levels of anxiety young, unmarried and unemployed people will face during the holiday.

“You haven’t earned any money but you still have to give the younger kids a red envelope,” the user wrote, over a picture of a woman giving a small bill to a cat.

Many others offer advice to ease fears of being scrutinized by the family.

“Unique-me” wrote on the Chinese social media platform Weibo: “Now the economy is not good, it’s good to just have an income. If you are in a difficult situation, you can admit that you don’t make much. There is no need to be generous. Just show your appreciation. Those who have opinions about you because of the size of your red envelope, let them have opinions.”

Faced with economic woes, some local governments are advocating frugality. Baise City, Guangxi, suggested that the amount of money in a red envelope should not exceed $3.

The initiative also encourages the younger generation to give their elders “blessing gifts” with commemorative significance or emotional value instead of red envelopes.

This move has attracted widespread attention, with many social media users expressing their support for the program’s positive impact on financial and mental health. Some suggested that blessing gifting be promoted nationwide.

Workplace anxiety

The size of red envelopes exchanged in the workplace and increasing leniency on new year vacation day allowances have stoked fears of job insecurity among employees.

“The economic downturn is not only reflected in my meager salary, but also in the red envelopes given by the boss every year,” “Life with Greed” said on Weibo.

A user called “Let’s try to be happy” commented on Weibo: “My company is in a slump. New Year gifts have not been issued. In previous years, the maximum New Year holiday was 20 days, but this year it was more than a month. I don’t know what it will be like next year. It feels like it is on the verge of bankruptcy.”

A 39-year-old government worker in Dalian, who spoke to VOA on the condition of anonymity because of security fears, said despite having a family and a stable job, she will limit her holiday spending.

“We have to reduce some unnecessary expenses, such as buying less candy and snacks, and we try to buy simple things outside when worshiping,” the wife and mother said.

The changes in Chinese Spring Festival customs are affected by many factors, but the economy is most critical, said Sun Guoxiang, a professor in the international affairs and business department at Nanhua University in Taiwan.

“The economic downturn has led to a decline in consumption capacity. Young people pay more attention to rational consumption and actual needs, which reduces the relatively high-cost parts of traditional Spring Festival customs,” Sun said, adding that pressure from family about issues that include work, marriage and education cannot be ignored as drivers of this trend.

He said the future of Chinese New Year and how it will be celebrated will depend heavily on China’s development and whether the country can overcome its current economic decline.

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Philippine president offers deal to China: Stop sea aggression and I’ll return missiles to US

MANILA — Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. offered on Thursday to remove a U.S. missile system from the Philippines if China halts what he called its “aggressive and coercive behavior” in the disputed South China Sea. 

The U.S. Army installed the Typhon mid-range missile system in the northern Philippines in April last year to support what the longtime treaty allies described as training for joint combat readiness. 

China has repeatedly demanded that the Philippines remove the missile system, saying it was “inciting geopolitical confrontation and an arms race.” 

Asked by reporters about China’s criticism of the missile system, Marcos said he did not understand the Chinese position because the Philippines does not comment on China’s missile systems which “are a thousand times more powerful than what we have.” 

“Let’s make a deal with China: Stop claiming our territory, stop harassing our fishermen and let them have a living, stop ramming our boats, stop water cannoning our people, stop firing lasers at us and stop your aggressive and coercive behavior, and we’ll return the typhoon missiles,” Marcos told reporters in central Cebu province. 

“Let them stop everything they’re doing and I’ll return all of those,” he said. 

Chinese officials did not immediately comment on the Philippine leader’s remarks. 

The U.S. Army’s mobile Typhon missile system, which consists of a launcher and at least 16 Standard Missile-6 and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, was repositioned about two weeks ago from the northern Philippines to a strategic area nearer the capital, Manila, in consultation with Philippine defense officials, a senior Philippine official told The Associated Press. 

The Philippine official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of a lack of authority to discuss the sensitive issue in public, said the U.S. missile system is now nearer an area where Chinese and Philippine coast guard and navy forces have been involved in increasingly tense faceoffs in the South China Sea. 

Tomahawk missiles can travel over 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers), which puts parts of mainland China within their range. The missile system will remain in the Philippines indefinitely, the Philippine official said. 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said last week that the Philippines is “creating tensions and antagonism in the region and inciting geopolitical confrontation and an arms race” by allowing the U.S. missile system to be positioned in its territory. 

“This is a highly dangerous move and an extremely irresponsible choice,” Mao said. 

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro has rejected China’s demand that the missile system be removed as interference in Philippine internal affairs. 

The U.S. and the Philippines have repeatedly condemned China’s increasingly assertive actions to press its territorial claims in the South China Sea, where hostilities have flared over the past two years with repeated clashes between Chinese and Philippine coast guard forces and accompanying vessels. 

Aside from China and the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have overlapping claims in the busy waterway, a key shipping route which is also believed to be sitting atop large undersea deposits of gas and oil.

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Chinese app shakes up AI race

A small Chinese company sent shockwaves around the tech world this week with news that it has created a high-performing artificial intelligence system with less computing power and at a lower cost than ones made by U.S. tech giants. Michelle Quinn reports.

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Generative AI makes Chinese, Iranian hackers more efficient, report says

A report issued Wednesday by Google found that hackers from numerous countries, particularly China, Iran and North Korea, have been using the company’s artificial intelligence-enabled Gemini chatbot to supercharge cyberattacks against targets in the United States.

The company found — so far, at least — that access to publicly available large language models (LLMs) has made cyberattackers more efficient but has not meaningfully changed the kind of attacks they typically mount.

LLMs are AI models that have been trained, using enormous amounts of previously generated content, to identify patterns in human languages. Among other things, this makes them adept at producing high-functioning, error-free computer programs.

“Rather than enabling disruptive change, generative AI allows threat actors to move faster and at higher volume,” the report found.

Generative AI offered some benefits for low-skilled and high-skilled hackers, the report said.

“However, current LLMs on their own are unlikely to enable breakthrough capabilities for threat actors. We note that the AI landscape is in constant flux, with new AI models and agentic systems emerging daily. As this evolution unfolds, [the Google Threat Intelligence Group] anticipates the threat landscape to evolve in stride as threat actors adopt new AI technologies in their operations.”

Google’s findings appear to agree with previous research released by other large U.S. AI players OpenAI and Microsoft, which found a similar failure to achieve novel offensive strategies for cyberattacks through the use of public generative AI models.

The report clarified that Google works to disrupt the activity of threat actors when it identifies them.

Game unchanged 

“AI, so far, has not been a game changer for offensive actors,” Adam Segal, director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy Program at the Council on Foreign Relations, told VOA. “It speeds up some things. It gives foreign actors a better ability to craft phishing emails and find some code. But has it dramatically changed the game? No.”

Whether that might change in the future is unclear, Segal said. Also unclear is whether further developments in AI technology will more likely benefit people building defenses against cyberattacks or the threat actors trying to defeat them.

“Historically, defense has been hard, and technology hasn’t solved that problem,” Segal said. “I suspect AI won’t do that, either. But we don’t know yet.”

Caleb Withers, a research associate at the Center for a New American Security, agreed that there is likely to be an arms race of sorts, as offensive and defensive cybersecurity applications of generative AI evolve. However, it is likely that they will largely balance each other out, he said.

“The default assumption should be that absent certain trends that we haven’t yet seen, these tools should be roughly as useful to defenders as offenders,” he said. “Anything productivity enhancing, in general, applies equally, even when it comes to things like discovering vulnerabilities. If an attacker can use something to find a vulnerability in software, so, too, is the tool useful to the defender to try to find those themselves and patch them.”

Threat categories

The report breaks down the kinds of threat actors it observed using Gemini into two primary categories.

Advanced persistent threat (APT) actors refer to “government-backed hacking activity, including cyber espionage and destructive computer network attacks.” By contrast, information operation (IO) threats “attempt to influence online audiences in a deceptive, coordinated manner. Examples include sock puppet accounts [phony profiles that hide users’ identities] and comment brigading [organized online attacks aimed at altering perceptions of online popularity].”

The report found that hackers from Iran were the heaviest users of Gemini in both threat categories. APT threat actors from Iran used the service for a wide range of tasks, including gathering information on individuals and organizations, researching targets and their vulnerabilities, translating language and creating content for future online campaigns.

Google tracked more than 20 Chinese government-backed APT actors using Gemini “to enable reconnaissance on targets, for scripting and development, to request translation and explanation of technical concepts, and attempting to enable deeper access to a network following initial compromise.”

North Korean state-backed APTs used Gemini for many of the same tasks as Iran and China but also appeared to be attempting to exploit the service in its efforts to place “clandestine IT workers” in Western companies to facilitate the theft of intellectual property.

Information operations

Iran was also the heaviest user of Gemini when it came to information operation threats, accounting for 75% of detected usage, Google reported. Hackers from Iran used the service to create and manipulate content meant to sway public opinion, and to adapt that content for different audiences.

Chinese IO actors primarily used the service for research purposes, looking into matters “of strategic interest to the Chinese government.”

Unlike the APT sector, where their presence was minimal, Russian hackers were more common when it came to IO-related use of Gemini, using it not only for content creation but to gather information about how to create and use online AI chatbots.

Call for collaboration

Also on Wednesday, Kent Walker, president of global affairs for Google and its parent company, Alphabet, used a post on the company’s blog to note the potential dangers posed by threat actors using increasingly sophisticated AI models, and calling on the industry and federal government “to work together to support our national and economic security.”

“America holds the lead in the AI race — but our advantage may not last,” Walker wrote.

Walker argued that the U.S. needs to maintain its narrow advantage in the development of the technology used to build the most advanced artificial intelligence tools. In addition, he said, the government must streamline procurement rules to “enable adoption of AI, cloud and other game-changing technologies” by the U.S. military and intelligence agencies, and to establish public-private cyber defense partnerships. 

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VOA Mandarin: Taiwan mulls reaction to Trump’s tariff plans

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on semiconductors. How do analysts and people from Taiwan’s chip industry view the potential tariffs?  

Click here for the full story in Mandarin. 

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Year of the Snake is underway with Lunar New Year festivities

BEIJING — Lunar New Year festivals and prayers marked the start of the Year of the Snake around Asia and farther afield on Wednesday — including in Moscow.

Hundreds of people lined up in the hours before midnight at the Wong Tai Sin Taoist temple in Hong Kong in a bid to be among the first to put incense sticks in the stands in front of the temple’s main hall.

“I wish my family will be blessed. I hope my business will run well. I pray for my country and wish people peace. I hope this coming year is a better year,” said Ming So, who visits the temple annually on the eve of the Lunar New Year.

The holiday — known as the Spring Festival in China, Tet in Vietnam and Seollal in Korea — is a major festival celebrated by diaspora communities around the world. The snake, one of 12 animals in the Chinese zodiac, follows the just-ended Year of the Dragon.

The pop-pop-pop of firecrackers greeted the new year outside Guan Di temple in Malaysia’s capital, Kuala Lumpur, followed by lion dances to the rhythmic beat of drums and small cymbals.

Ethnic Chinese holding incense sticks in front of them bowed several times inside the temple before sticking the incense into elaborate gold-colored pots, the smoke rising from the burning tips.

Many Chinese who work in bigger cities return home during the eight-day national holiday in what is described as the world’s biggest annual movement of humanity. Beijing, China’s capital, has turned into a bit of a ghost town, with many shops closed and normally crowded roads and subways empty.

Traditionally, Chinese have a family dinner at home on New Year’s Eve and visit “temple fairs” on the Lunar New Year to watch performances and buy snacks, toys and other trinkets from booths.

Many Chinese take advantage of the extended holiday to travel in the country and abroad. Ctrip, an online booking agency that operates Trip.com, said the most popular overseas destinations this year are Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, the United States, South Korea, Macao and Vietnam.

Russians cheered, waved and took smartphone photos of a colorful procession with drummers, costumed dancers and large dragon and snake figures held aloft that kicked off a 10-day Lunar New Year festival in Moscow on Tuesday night.

Visitors shouted “Happy New Year” in Russian and expressed delight at being able to experience Chinese food and culture in Moscow, including folk performances and booths selling snacks and artwork.

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India and China to restore direct flights as they move to stabilize ties

In a signal that India and China are moving to repair ties damaged by a border standoff, the two countries have decided to resume direct flights. Analysts say while their festering border dispute continues to remain a concern for India, relations are likely to improve as both countries prepare to face economic uncertainties. Anjana Pasricha has a report from New Delhi.

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Year of the Snake underway with Lunar New Year festivities

BEIJING — Lunar New Year festivals and prayers marked the start of the Year of the Snake around Asia and farther afield on Wednesday — including in Moscow.

Hundreds of people lined up in the hours before midnight at the Wong Tai Sin Taoist temple in Hong Kong in a bid to be among the first to put incense sticks in the stands in front of the temple’s main hall.

“I wish my family will be blessed. I hope my business will run well. I pray for my country and wish people peace. I hope this coming year is a better year,” said Ming So, who visits the temple annually on the eve of the Lunar New Year.

The holiday — known as the Spring Festival in China, Tet in Vietnam and Seollal in Korea — is a major festival celebrated by diaspora communities around the world. The snake, one of 12 animals in the Chinese zodiac, follows the just-ended Year of the Dragon.

The pop-pop-pop of firecrackers greeted the new year outside Guan Di temple in Malaysia’s capital, Kuala Lumpur, followed by lion dances to the rhythmic beat of drums and small cymbals.

Ethnic Chinese holding incense sticks in front of them bowed several times inside the temple before sticking the incense into elaborate gold-colored pots, the smoke rising from the burning tips.

Many Chinese who work in bigger cities return home during the eight-day national holiday in what is described as the world’s biggest annual movement of humanity. Beijing, China’s capital, has turned into a bit of a ghost town, with many shops closed and normally crowded roads and subways emptied out.

Traditionally, Chinese have a family dinner at home on New Year’s Eve and visit “temple fairs” on the Lunar New Year to watch performances and buy snacks, toys and other trinkets from booths.

Many Chinese take advantage of the extended holiday to travel both in the country and abroad. Ctrip, an online booking agency that operates Trip.com, said the most popular overseas destinations this year are Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, the United States, South Korea, Macao and Vietnam.

Russians cheered, waved and took smartphone photos of a colorful procession with drummers, costumed dancers and large dragon and snake figures held aloft that kicked off a 10-day Lunar New Year festival in Moscow on Tuesday night.

The Chinese and Russian governments have deepened ties since 2022, in part to push back against what they see as U.S. dominance of the world order.

Visitors shouted “Happy New Year” in Russian and expressed delight at being able to experience Chinese food and culture in Moscow, including folk performances and booths selling snacks and artwork.

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Analysts: Rubio charts a course for countering China

WASHINGTON — U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Southeast and East Asia strategies will be aimed at countering China by toughening U.S. policies to secure regional peace and maximize American interests, analysts say.

Rubio gave a glimpse of what U.S. foreign policy will look like as he began his first day as the head of the State Department last week.

Speaking to his staff after he was sworn on Jan. 21, Rubio said, “Our job across the world is to ensure that we have a foreign policy that advances the national interest of the United States.”

Referencing President Donald Trump’s objective, Rubio continued that the “overriding goal of global policy is the promotion of peace, the avoidance of conflict.”

Putting “America First” and achieving “Peace through Strength” are twin pillars on which Trump said he will prop up the U.S. as he took office on Jan. 20.

Rubio is currently likely to consult with country directors of the region and coordinate with the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to formulate Asia Pacific strategies, said Richard Armitage, who served as deputy secretary of state during the Bush administration, to VOA Korean on Jan. 24.

“Secretary Rubio’s Southeast Asia policy will focus on countering China through stronger U.S. trade, security partnerships and supply chain diversification,” said Mark Kennedy, director at the Wilson Center’s Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition, to VOA on Jan. 23

On Pyongyang and Moscow, “Rubio will ask China – as Trump did – to help convince North Korea to resume negotiations with the U.S.,” said Joseph DeTrani, who served as special envoy for six-party denuclearization talks with North Korea during the George W. Bush administration.

“If successful, with or without China’s help, this may help to distance North Korea from Russia,” DeTrani told VOA on Jan. 24.

Rubio’s roots

In shaping and executing regional policies, Rubio’s strong opposition to authoritarianism, communism, and human rights violations is likely to “color his approach at the State Department,” said Evans Revere, who served as acting secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs during the George W. Bush administration.

The former senator grew up in Miami with Cuban immigrant parents and has exhibited an aversion toward communist governments throughout his political career.

This stance, mixed with the twin foreign policy pillars, are likely to result in tough strategies for countries like North Korea and China and their activities in the region, according to analysts.

Rubio signaled this on a call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday, stressing that “the Trump Administration will pursue a U.S.-PRC relationship that advances U.S. interests” and “the United States’ commitment to our allies in the region.” China’s official name is the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

He also expressed “serious concern over China’s coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea.”

In line with the policy goal of avoiding conflict, Rubio may support Trump’s personal diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said Gary Samore, former White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction during the Obama administration.

North Korea said Sunday it conducted a sea-to-surface strategic cruise missile test the previous day.

Rubio, doubtful initially about Trump’s summits with Kim during his first term, said at a confirmation hearing earlier this month that Trump’s personal diplomacy was able to stop the country from testing missiles.

He spoke by phone with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul last week emphasizing the alliance is the linchpin of peace on the Korean Peninsula and across the Indo-Pacific.

In a meeting also last week in Washington, Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi discussed North Korea’s ties with Russia.

Rally against China

Among Southeast Asian countries, Rubio last week held calls with the foreign ministers of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, each time stressing stable maritime security in the South China Sea.

Particularly in his calls with Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo, Rubio underscored “PRC’s dangerous and destabilizing actions in the South China Sea.”

With Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son, Rubio expressed concern over “China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea.”

Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told VOA on January 23 that the Trump administration “will look primarily to the Philippines and outside partners like Japan and Australia to defend freedom of the seas in the South China Sea.”

One of the first meetings Rubio held was with the Australian, Japanese and Indian leaders of the Quad security dialogue last week in Washington where they expressed opposition to unilateral actions to change the status quo of the region by force or coercion and vowed to keep the Indo-Pacific free and open.

Poling continued the administration will look “secondarily to Vietnam, Singapore, and Indonesia to deepen practical maritime cooperation.”

Rubio “may push Indonesia to take a stronger stance vis-à-vis Chinese activities in disputed waters, particularly in light of controversial Indonesia-China maritime development deal signed in November 2024,” Anreyka Natalegawa, associate fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS told VOA on Jan. 23.

Indonesia and China signed a $10 billion deal in November agreeing to develop fisheries, oil and gas exploration, among other things, across their private sectors.

Diplomatic balancing

Analysts say Washington’s push to have regional countries align more closely with Washington could lead to some tensions. Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar tend to lean more toward Beijing, and Indonesia tends to balance its engagement with China and the U.S.

Robert McMahon, a foreign relations expert at The Ohio State University, said Rubio’s harsh stance on China could put Indonesia in a “difficult position, since it has not been willing to join the anti-China bandwagon.”

He told VOA in December after Rubio was nominated as the secretary of state that “to the extent that the United States tries to pressure Indonesia to move in that direction, that could lead to some conflict.”

Rubio said to his State Department staff last week that he expects other countries “to advance their national interests” but hopes “there will be many – in which our national interests and theirs align.”

Seng Vanly, an assistant dean and lecturer at the Techo Sen School of Government and International Relations at the University of Cambodia, said Washington is likely to increase pressure on Cambodia over concerns for human rights, democratic setbacks, and restricted civil society activities, coupled with its growing ties with China.

However, analysts say U.S. foreign policy under Rubio will likely balance issues such as human rights with regional security and economic goals.

Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow for the Southeast Asia program at the Lowy Institute, said, “Washington will be more practical.”

“While it could raise human rights issues with regional countries, the Americans understand if they disengage from the region because of human rights, China will fill in the void,” Yaacob said.

Han Noy from Khmer Service, Yuni Salim from Indonesian Service contributed to this report.

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China sees boom in feasts for pets on Lunar New Year’s Eve

TAIPEI, TAIWAN — As pet parents in China usher in the Year of the Snake and host Lunar New Year’s Eve dinners with their loved ones, some are also making sure that their fur babies, or “mao hai zi,” are not left out.

Over the past month, a growing number of consumers have been ordering pet-friendly versions of the traditional New Year’s Eve reunion dinner, ranging from freshly made meals to gift boxes of dried food.

A search for “dogs’ and cats’ Lunar New Year’s Eve dinner” on Douyin, the Chinese version of Tiktok and the most popular short-video app in China, lists dozens of choices.

‘Lucky’ dumplings

Some vendors even tout traditional Chinese delicacy dishes such as “Buddha jumps over the wall,” which includes seafood and meats, and “eight treasures duck rice” in addition to common ones such “lucky” dumplings and rice cake, adapted for dog palates.

The prices range from 19.9 to 168 yuan ($2.8 to $24) per set.

One vendor on Douyin, LAOTOU Pet Bakery, told VOA in a written reply Monday that it sold out of the special holiday pet meals more than a week before the Lunar New Year, which starts on Wednesday this year.

Lou Yu, vice president of Favor Pets Company in Beijing, also that the pet service firm has seen a boom year in holiday sales of pet food.

Business peaked during the Dragon Boat Festival in June, Mid-Autumn Festival in September and the Christmas holidays in December, when, respectively, rice dumplings, moon cakes and special Christmas treats were offered for pets, he said.

Booming holiday sales

“For [pets’] reunion dinner on Lunar New Year’s Eve, we’ve probably seen a 45% to 50% growth in sales this year, compared to a year ago, when sales were still tepid,” Lou told VOA by phone on Monday.

The company ran out of stock before the eight-day-long holiday began this week as a growing number of owners splurge on their pets.

Festive Fido and feline food have become an emerging and “under-supplied” niche market that is bucking the trend despite China’s economic slowdown. China’s “cat and dog parents” total more than 120 million, more than double from a decade ago, according to Lou.

Last year, there were some 9.54 million babies born in China. Pets are expected to outnumber children under 4 years of age by a ratio of 2 to 1 by 2030 — a shift that will likely create a substantial $12 billion market for pet food in China, U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs forecasted in a report late last year.

Authorities in China ended the country’s one-child policy in 2016 and started encouraging young couples to have three children in 2021 as the country’s population ages and the number of newborns declines.

Pets over kids

By contrast, many couples who find it too expensive to raise children are instead choosing pets over kids.

On Saturday, 11 dogs were treated with plates of shredded chicken and lettuce — a special Lunar New Year meal — in a Shanghai restaurant. Their owners were all female.

“He’s my soulmate! He gives me a lot of emotional support … and he’s a good friend that I’d like to be with and enjoy the New Year atmosphere together,” attendee Momo Ni told Reuters news agency, referring to her border collie, Yakult.

Daisy Xu, another 28-year-old owner, said her dog, named Niu Niu, is already a beloved member of the family.

“We will make her another dog meal. … When it comes to New Year gifts, I think my parents will probably give their granddaughter a red envelope,” Xu told Reuters. Adults traditionally give red envelopes containing money to children during the Lunar New Year.

Rich people’s world

While some Chinese social media users share postings of their pets’ special holiday treats, some users were not as enthusiastic, with several complaining that “these dogs and cats are better fed than I am.”

A Guizhou province-based Weibo user named “magnolia0526” said, “The luxurious lifestyle of cats and dogs highlights the uneven distribution of resources in human society, which is not cute at all.” The post was in response to the hashtag “sales of reunion dinner and dumplings for pets has seen a 480% growth.”

Another Shandong province-based user mocked the trend, saying “this is the world of the rich people.”

Aside from pet food, Favor Pet’s Lou said China has experienced a booming pet economy in recent years with growing business opportunities from pet grooming and sitting services, especially during holiday seasons.

He said that a growing number of job seekers have signed up for the company’s training programs as they shift career paths to find opportunities in the pet service sector.

This article originated in VOA’s Mandarin Service.

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Fast-moving fires torch national parks in southeast Australia

SYDNEY — Firefighters were desperately trying to stop a cluster of fast-moving blazes in southeast Australia on Tuesday, as thousands of acres of national park burned and a farming community was forced to evacuate.

Lightning strikes on Monday evening ignited several fires in the Grampians National Park, a forested mountain range about 300 kilometers west of Victoria’s state capital Melbourne.

A separate fast-moving fire in Little Desert National Park in the west of the state has torn through almost 65,000 hectares in less than 24 hours, emergency services said, scorching an area almost as large as Singapore.

That fire had forced the evacuation of rural Dimboola before threat levels were downgraded on Tuesday afternoon.

“I’m incredibly thankful that no lives have been lost and we have no reports of injury either,” emergency management commissioner Rick Nugent told reporters.

Chris Hardman from Forest Fire Management Victoria warned that weather conditions over the next few days are increasing the possibility the fires will spread.

“Right now firefighters are planning to do everything in their powers to protect communities,” he said.

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Kevin Parkyn said stifling heatwave conditions would settle over parts of Victoria on Saturday, escalating fire risks.

“When we look at the next seven to 10 days, the main message is that there will be a hot dome over Victoria.

“Once we get into the weekend don’t be surprised if we see heatwave conditions unfold across the state, and continue to intensify into next week.

“The landscape is dry, and if we continue to see these hot conditions, it will continue to dry the landscape out further.”

Hotter temperatures are fueling increasingly severe natural disasters across Australia, researchers have found.

Scientists have documented a marked increase in extreme fire weather across the country since the 1950s.

The unprecedented “Black Summer” bushfires of 2019-2020, for example, killed 33 people and millions of animals, razed vast tracts of forest and blanketed major cities in thick smoke.

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New Zealand reviews its aid to Kiribati after the Pacific island nation snubs an official’s visit

WELLINGTON, New Zealand — New Zealand is reconsidering all development funding to the aid-dependent island nation of Kiribati, following a diplomatic snub from the island nation’s leader, government officials said.

The unusual move to review all finance to Kiribati was prompted by the abrupt cancellation of a planned meeting this month between President Taneti Maamau and New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters, Peters’ office told The Associated Press on Monday.

It followed months of growing frustration from Australia and New Zealand — jointly responsible for more than a third of overseas development finance to Kiribati in 2022 — about a lack of engagement with the island nation. Tensions have risen since Kiribati aligned itself with China in 2019 and signed a series of bilateral deals with Beijing.

A strategically important island nation

The bond between Kiribati — population 120,000 — and its near neighbor New Zealand, a country of 5 million people, might not appear the South Pacific’s most significant. But the acrimony reflects concern from western powers that their interests in the region are being undermined as China woos Pacific leaders with offers of funding and loans.

That has provoked a contest for influence over Kiribati, an atoll nation that is among the world’s most imperiled by rising sea levels. Its proximity to Hawaii and its vast exclusive economic zone — the world’s 12th largest — have boosted its strategic importance.

Powers vie for sway with aid

Kiribati, one of the world’s most aid-dependent nations, relies heavily on international support, with foreign assistance accounting for 18% of its national income in 2022, according to data from the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank. About 10% of development finance that year came from New Zealand — which contributed 102 million New Zealand dollars ($58 million) between 2021 and 2024, official figures show.

However, officials in Wellington and Canberra have expressed frustration over a lack of engagement from Tarawa regarding development projects. Frictions escalated when Kiribati suspended all visits from foreign officials in August, citing a need to focus on the government formation process after elections that month.

Kiribati switched its allegiance from pro-Taiwan to pro-Beijing in 2019, joining a growing number of Pacific nations to do so. Self-governing Taiwan is claimed by China and since the shift, Beijing has increased aid to Kiribati.

An official snub provokes backlash

Peters was scheduled to meet Maamau, who has led the country since 2016, in Kiribati on Jan. 21 and Jan. 22, Peters’ office said, but was told a week before the trip that Maamau could not accommodate him. It would have been the first visit by a New Zealand minister in more than five years.

“The lack of political-level contact makes it very difficult for us to agree joint priorities for our development program, and to ensure that it is well targeted and delivers good value for money,” a statement supplied by Peters’ office said. New Zealand will review all development cooperation with Kiribati as a result, the statement added.

The government of Kiribati did not respond to a request for comment, although Education Minister Alexander Teabo told Radio New Zealand on Tuesday that Maamau had a long-standing engagement on his home island — and denied a snub.

New Zealand cautioned that the diplomatic rift could have broader consequences, including impacting New Zealand resident visas for Kiribati citizens and participation in a popular seasonal work scheme that brings Pacific horticulture and viticulture workers to New Zealand. New Zealand — home to large populations of Pacific peoples — is a popular spot for those from island nations to live and work.

“In the meantime, New Zealand stands ready, as we always have, to engage with Kiribati at a high level,” said the statement.

Australia’s softer approach

The decision to review all development funding is a “different, and more forceful approach” than New Zealand has taken before, said Blake Johnson, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and contrasted with a different tack taken recently by Australia — which is Kiribati’s biggest funder.

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles traveled to the island nation this month as planned to deliver a patrol boat promised to Kiribati in 2023 — even though he did not meet with Maamau. Australia’s foreign ministry said in a statement Tuesday that the country “remains committed to its longstanding partnership with Kiribati.”

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China’s DeepSeek AI rattles Wall Street, but questions remain

Chinese researchers backed by a Hangzhou-based hedge fund recently released a new version of a large language model (LLM) called DeepSeek-R1 that rivals the capabilities of the most advanced U.S.-built products but reportedly does so with fewer computing resources and at much lower cost.

High Flyer, the hedge fund that backs DeepSeek, said that the model nearly matches the performance of LLMs built by U.S. firms like OpenAI, Google and Meta, but does so using only about 2,000 older generation computer chips manufactured by U.S.-based industry leader Nvidia while costing only about $6 million worth of computing power to train.

By comparison, Meta’s AI system, Llama, uses about 16,000 chips, and reportedly costs Meta vastly more money to train.

Open-source model

The apparent advance in Chinese AI capabilities comes after years of efforts by the U.S. government to restrict China’s access to advanced semiconductors and the equipment used to manufacture them. Over the past two years, under President Joe Biden, the U.S. put multiple export control measures in place with the specific aim of throttling China’s progress on AI development.

DeepSeek appears to have innovated its way to some of its success, developing new and more efficient algorithms that allow the chips in the system to communicate with each other more effectively, thereby improving performance.

At least some of what DeepSeek R1’s developers did to improve its performance is visible to observers outside the company, because the model is open source, meaning that the algorithms it uses to answer queries are public.

Market reaction

The news about DeepSeek’s capabilities sparked a broad sell-off of technology stocks on U.S. markets on Monday, as investors began to question whether U.S. companies’ well-publicized plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in AI data centers and other infrastructure would preserve their dominance in the field. When the markets closed on Monday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index was down by 3.1%, and Nvidia’s share price had plummeted by nearly 17%.

However, not all AI experts believe the markets’ reaction to the release of DeepSeek R1 is justified, or that the claims about the model’s development should be taken at face value.

Mel Morris, CEO of U.K.-based Corpora.ai, an AI research engine, told VOA that while DeepSeek is an impressive piece of technology, he believes the market reaction has been excessive and that more information is needed to accurately judge the impact DeepSeek will have on the AI market.

“There’s always an overreaction to things, and there is today, so let’s just step back and analyze what we’re seeing here,” Morris said. “Firstly, we have no real understanding of exactly what the cost was or the time scale involved in building this product. We just don’t know. … They claim that it’s significantly cheaper and more efficient, but we have no proof of that.”

Morris said that while DeepSeek’s performance may be comparable to that of OpenAI products, “I’ve not seen anything yet that convinces me that they’ve actually cracked the quantum step in the cost of operating these sorts of models.”

Doubts about origins

Lennart Heim, a data scientist with the RAND Corporation, told VOA that while it is plain that DeepSeek R1 benefits from innovative algorithms that boost its performance, he agreed that the general public actually knows relatively little about how the underlying technology was developed.

Heim said that it is unclear whether the $6 million training cost cited by High Flyer actually covers the whole of the company’s expenditures — including personnel, training data costs and other factors — or is just an estimate of what a final training “run” would have cost in terms of raw computing power. If the latter, Heim said, the figure is comparable to the costs incurred by better U.S. models.

He also questioned the assertion that DeepSeek was developed with only 2,000 chips. In a blog post written over the weekend, he noted that the company is believed to have existing operations with tens of thousands of Nvidia chips that could have been used to do the work necessary to develop a model that is capable of running on just 2,000.

“This extensive compute access was likely crucial for developing their efficiency techniques through trial and error and for serving their models to customers,” he wrote.

He also pointed out that the company’s decision to release version R1 of its LLM last week — on the heels of the inauguration of a new U.S. president — appeared political in nature. He said that it was “clearly intended to rattle the public’s confidence in the United States’ AI leadership during a pivotal moment in U.S. policy.”

Dean W. Ball, a research fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center, was also cautious about declaring that DeepSeek R1 has somehow upended the AI landscape.

“I think Silicon Valley and Wall Street are overreacting to some extent,” he told VOA. “But at the end of the day, R1 means that the competition between the U.S. and China is likely to remain fierce, and that we need to take it seriously.”

Export control debate

The apparent success of DeepSeek has been used as evidence by some experts to suggest that the export controls put in place under the Biden administration may not have had the intended effects.

“At a minimum, this suggests that U.S. approaches to AI and export controls may not be as effective as proponents claim,” Paul Triolo, a partner with DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, told VOA.

“The availability of very good but not cutting-edge GPUs — for example, that a company like DeepSeek can optimize for specific training and inference workloads — suggests that the focus of export controls on the most advanced hardware and models may be misplaced,” Triolo said. “That said, it remains unclear how DeepSeek will be able to keep pace with global leaders such as OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Mistral, Meta and others that will continue to have access to the best hardware systems.”

Other experts, however, argued that export controls have simply not been in place long enough to show results.

Sam Bresnick, a research fellow at Georgetown’s University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology told VOA that it would be “very premature” to call the measures a failure.

“The CEO of DeepSeek has gone on record saying the biggest constraint they face is access to high-level compute resources,” Bresnick said. “If [DeepSeek] had as much compute at their fingertips as Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, etc, there would be a significant boost in their performance. So … I don’t think that DeepSeek is the smoking gun that some people are claiming it is [to show that export controls] do not work.”

Bresnick noted that the toughest export controls were imposed in only 2023, meaning that their effects may just be starting to be felt. He said that the real test of their effectiveness will be whether U.S. firms are able to continue to outpace China in coming years.

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China captures scam center suspect with Thailand’s help

BEIJING — Police have detained a man suspected of involvement in the case of a Chinese actor who was duped into travelling to Thailand for a film job and then trafficked to Myanmar, China’s Public Security Ministry said.

The joint efforts of the ministry’s task force and the Chinese Embassy in Thailand, helped by Thai law enforcement, led to the arrest of a “major criminal suspect” on Saturday, the ministry said in a notice late on Sunday.

The ministry added that the suspect was surnamed Yan and returned to China on Saturday, but did not elaborate.

Wang Xing, a 22-year-old Chinese actor, traveled to Thailand early this month after receiving an unsolicited offer to join a film that was shooting in Thailand.

When Wang got to Bangkok, he was kidnapped, authorities said, and taken to an online scam compound, one of hundreds of thousands of people the United Nations says have been trapped into working for criminal networks running fraudulent telecommunications operations across the region.

Wang’s case drew national interest after his girlfriend began a social media campaign about his plight, and he was later freed by Thai police who found him in Myanmar.

The ministry said the police would step up their efforts to crack down on the scam centers, deepen international law enforcement cooperation, and coordinate with countries involved to detain the criminals and rescue Chinese citizens.

The scam compounds that have proliferated in Southeast Asia since the COVID-19 pandemic defraud people across the globe and generate billions of dollars every year for organized crime groups, many of Chinese origin.

Last week, officials from China, Myanmar and Thailand reached a consensus on eradicating the centers in Myanmar.

China and Thailand also agreed to set up a coordination center in Bangkok to investigate and combat the scam complexes that have mushroomed along Thai borders with Myanmar and Cambodia. The initiative is expected to start operations next month.

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Jannik Sinner beats Alexander Zverev for 2nd Australian Open title

MELBOURNE, Australia — There’s all sorts of ways beyond merely the score to measure just how dominant Jannik Sinner was while outplaying and frustrating Alexander Zverev during the 6-3, 7-6 (4), 6-3 victory Sunday that earned the 23-year-old Italian a second consecutive Australian Open championship. 

The zero break points Sinner faced. Or the 10 he accumulated. The 27-13 advantage in points that lasted at least nine strokes. Or the way Sinner accumulated more winners, 32 to 25, and fewer unforced errors, 27 to 45. The way Sinner won 10 of the 13 points that ended with him at the net. Or the way he only let Zverev go 14 of 27 in that category, frequently zipping passing shots out of reach. 

Well, here’s is one more bit of evidence: what Zverev said about Sinner. 

“I’m serving better than him, but that’s it. He does everything else better than me. He moves better than me. He hits his forehand better than me. He hits his backhand better than me. He returns better than me. He volleys better than me,” Zverev said. “At the end of the day, tennis has five or six massive shots — like, massive factors — and he does four or five of them better than me. That’s the reason why he won.” 

High praise from a guy who is, after all, ranked No. 2. Sinner has held the No. 1 spot since last June and is not showing any signs of relinquishing it. This was the first Australian Open final between the men at No. 1 and No. 2 since 2019, when No. 1 Novak Djokovic defeated No. 2 Rafael Nadal — also in straight sets. 

“It’s amazing,” Sinner said, “to achieve these things.” 

The “things” include being the youngest man to leave Melbourne Park with the trophy two years in a row since Jim Courier in 1992-93, and the first man since Nadal at the French Open in 2005 and 2006 to follow up his first Grand Slam title by repeating as the champion at the same tournament a year later. 

Sinner was asked later whether he felt more relief or excitement when he raised his arms after the last point was his. 

“This one was joy. We managed to do something incredible this time, because the situation I was in was completely different from a year ago here,” he said. “I had more pressure.” 

Probably true, but it’s hard to tell. 

Go to the start of 2024 and take stock. In that span, Sinner has won three of the five major tournaments, including the U.S. Open in September, meaning he now has claimed three straight hard-court Slams. His record is 80-6 with nine titles. His current unbeaten run covers 21 matches. 

“There’s always something that can get better,” said one of his two coaches, Simone Vagnozzi. “He is playing really well right now and everything comes easily. But there will be tough moments ahead.” 

The only thing that’s clouded the past 12 months for Sinner, it seems, is the doping case in which his exoneration was appealed by the World Anti-Doping Agency. He tested positive for a trace amount of an anabolic steroid twice last March but blamed it on an accidental exposure involving two members of his team who have since been fired. Sinner initially was cleared in August; a hearing in the WADA appeal is scheduled for April. 

“I keep playing like this because I have a clear mind on what happened,” Sinner said Sunday. “I know if I would be guilty, I would not play like this.” 

While he became the eighth man in the Open era (which began in 1968) to start his career 3-0 in Grand Slam finals, Zverev is the seventh to be 0-3, adding this loss to those at the 2020 U.S. Open and last year’s French Open. 

Those earlier setbacks both came in five sets. This contest was not that close. Not at all. 

“I’ll keep doing everything I can,” Zverev said, “to lift one of those trophies.” 

Just before Zverev began speaking into a microphone during the trophy ceremony, a voice cried out from the stands, making reference to two of the player’s ex-girlfriends who accused him of physical abuse. 

During the match, there truly was only one moment that contained a hint of tension. It came when Zverev was two points from owning the second set at 5-4, love-30. But a break point — and a set point — never arrived. 

A year ago, Sinner went through a lot more trouble to earn his first major, needing to get past Novak Djokovic — who quit one set into his semifinal against Zverev on Friday because of a torn hamstring — before erasing a two-set deficit in the final against 2021 U.S. Open champion Daniil Medvedev. 

This time, Sinner applied pressure with an all-around style that does not really appear to have holes. 

“The facts speak for themselves,” Zverev said. “He’s in a different universe right now.” 

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South Korean president indicted as ‘ringleader of an insurrection’ 

Seoul — South Korean prosecutors indicted impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol Sunday for being the “ringleader of an insurrection” after his abortive declaration of martial law, ordering the suspended leader to remain in detention. 

 

Yoon plunged the country into political chaos with his December 3 bid to suspend civilian rule, a move which lasted just six hours before lawmakers defied armed soldiers in parliament to vote it down. 

 

He was impeached soon after, and earlier this month became the first sitting South Korean head of state to be arrested. 

 

That came after a weekslong holdout at his residence, where his elite personal security detail resisted attempts to detain him. 

 

In a statement, prosecutors said they had “indicted Yoon Suk Yeol with detention today on charges of being the ringleader of an insurrection.” 

 

He has been held at the Seoul Detention Center since his arrest, and the formal indictment with detention means he will now be kept behind bars until his trial, which must happen within six months. 

 

The indictment was widely expected after a court twice rejected requests by prosecutors to extend his arrest warrant while their investigation proceeded. 

 

“After a comprehensive review of evidence obtained during investigations [prosecutors] concluded that it was only appropriate to indict the defendant,” they said in a statement. 

 

The need to keep Yoon behind bars was justified by a “continued risk of evidence destruction,” they said. 

 

The specific charge — being the ringleader of an insurrection — is not covered by presidential immunity, they added.  

 

‘Process of accountability’ 

 

The opposition hailed the indictment. 

 

“We need to hold not only those who schemed to carry out an illegal insurrection, but also those who instigated it by spreading misinformation,” said lawmaker Han Min-soo. 

 

Without providing evidence, Yoon and his legal team have pointed to purported election fraud and legislative gridlock at the opposition-controlled parliament as justification for his declaration of martial law. 

 

Yoon has vowed to “fight to the end”, earning the support of supporters who have adopted the “stop the steal” rhetoric associated with U.S. President Donald Trump. 

 

“This indictment will provide a sense of relief, reaffirming that the constitutional order is functioning as it should,” said Bae Kang-hoon, co-founder of political think tank Valid. 

 

Yoon also faces a series of Constitutional Court hearings, to decide whether to uphold his impeachment and strip him formally of the presidency. 

 

If the court rules against Yoon, he will lose the presidency and an election will be called within 60 days. 

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Taipei pet shop strives to break down anti-snake prejudice

TAIPEI, TAIWAN — As the Year of the Snake approaches, a pet store in Taipei is offering adventurous customers an opportunity to enjoy the company of snakes while sipping coffee, hoping to break down some of the prejudice against the animal.

Taiwan has been plastered with images of the reptile ahead of the start of the Lunar New Year, which starts on Wednesday and whose zodiac animal this year is the snake.

The snake has a mixed reputation in traditional Taiwanese and Chinese culture as a symbol of either good or bad.

Some of Taiwan’s Indigenous peoples venerate snakes as guardian spirits, and while the island is home to species potentially deadly to humans, including vipers and cobras, deaths are rare given the wide availability of anti-venom.

Luo Chih-yu, 42, the owner of the Taipei pet shop Pythonism which opened in 2017, is offering potential snake owners the chance to interact with snakes over a cup of coffee.

“I provide a space for people to try and experience, finding out whether they like them without any prejudice,” he said.

Liu Ting-chih took his daughter to the shop, who looked curiously at the animals in their cages.

“Through this activity she can learn how to take care of small animals and cherish them,” Liu said.

Sub-tropical and mountainous Taiwan is home to some 60 native snake species. 

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CIA: COVID likely originated in a lab, but agency has ‘low confidence’ in report

WASHINGTON — The CIA now believes the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic most likely originated from a laboratory, according to an assessment released Saturday that points the finger at China even while acknowledging that the spy agency has “low confidence” in its own conclusion.

The finding is not the result of any new intelligence, and the report was completed at the behest of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns. It was declassified and released Saturday on the orders of President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the agency, John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in Thursday as director.

The nuanced finding suggests the agency believes the totality of evidence makes a lab origin more likely than a natural origin. But the agency’s assessment assigns a low degree of confidence to this conclusion, suggesting the evidence is deficient, inconclusive or contradictory.

Earlier reports on the origins of COVID-19 have split over whether the coronavirus emerged from a Chinese lab, potentially by mistake, or whether it arose naturally. The new assessment is not likely to settle the debate. In fact, intelligence officials say it may never be resolved, due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.

The CIA “continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible,” the agency wrote in a statement about its new assessment.

Instead of new evidence, the conclusion was based on fresh analyses of intelligence about the spread of the virus, its scientific properties and the work and conditions of China’s virology labs.

Lawmakers have pressured America’s spy agencies for more information about the origins of the virus, which led to lockdowns, economic upheaval and millions of deaths. It’s a question with significant domestic and geopolitical implications as the world continues to grapple with the pandemic’s legacy.

Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Saturday he was “pleased the CIA concluded in the final days of the Biden administration that the lab-leak theory is the most plausible explanation,” and he commended Ratcliffe for declassifying the assessment.

“Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world,” Cotton said in a statement.

China’s embassy in Washington did not immediately return messages seeking comment. Chinese authorities have in the past dismissed speculation about COVID’s origins as unhelpful and motivated by politics.

While the origin of the virus remains unknown, scientists think the most likely hypothesis is that it circulated in bats, like many coronaviruses, before infecting another species, probably racoon dogs, civet cats or bamboo rats. In turn, the infection spread to humans handling or butchering those animals at a market in Wuhan, where the first human cases appeared in late November 2019.

Some official investigations, however, have raised the question of whether the virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan. Two years ago, a report by the Energy Department concluded a lab leak was the most likely origin, though that report also expressed low confidence in the finding.

The same year then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said his agency believed the virus “most likely” spread after escaping from a lab.

Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump’s first term, has said he favors the lab leak scenario, too.

“The lab leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence, and common sense,” Ratcliffe said in 2023.

The CIA said it will continue to evaluate any new information that could change its assessment.

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China’s support for Myanmar regime backfires; scam syndicates thrive

WASHINGTON — Reports of Chinese citizens trafficked into scam centers along the Thai-Myanmar border are prompting renewed questions about Beijing’s reliance on Myanmar’s military regime to tackle transnational crime.

Analysts warn China’s strategy in Myanmar leaves citizens vulnerable while potentially bolstering criminal networks in the conflict-ridden Southeast Asia country.

Recent high-profile abduction cases have sparked outrage among the Chinese public, including the reported luring of Chinese actor Wang Xing to Myawaddy, a Thai-Myanmar border town, by scammers posing as film producers. Chinese embassies in Myanmar and Thailand have warned citizens about high-paying job offers that often lead to forced labor.

Thai officials reported that actor Wang Xing was trafficked into a scam syndicate operating in areas controlled by an ally of Myanmar’s military, the Karen Border Guard Force, or BGF.

Speaking to local media, Brigadier General Saw Maung Win of the BGF Battalion 3 confirmed that the BGF had handed Chinese actor Wang Xing over to Thai authorities but denied involvement in the trafficking, claiming only to have assisted in the rescue operation.

“These incidents involving Chinese citizens trafficked to Myawaddy are handled cautiously by Chinese authorities,” said Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar analyst. “But when action is required, China tends to pressure Thailand rather than directly addressing the situation in Myanmar.”

Jason Tower of the United States Institute of Peace echoed similar concerns.

“China’s support for the Myanmar military comes at great cost to its own population,” Tower said, referencing a publicly available database with close to 2,000 names of people across China who have gone missing in Myanmar in recent years.

Subsequently, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Southeast Asian nations to take decisive action against online gambling and telecom fraud, emphasizing the need for “relevant” countries to fulfill their responsibilities without explicitly naming Myanmar.

At a meeting with ASEAN envoys on Jan. 16, he highlighted the growing threat these crimes pose, particularly along the Thai-Myanmar border, which has endangered citizens of China and other countries.

Chinese and Thai police have jointly arrested 12 suspects connected to trafficking, with investigations ongoing and efforts underway to apprehend more suspects.

On Friday, China’s Ministry of Public Security said it was “making every effort” to crack down on the scam compounds and “rescue trafficked people.”

China’s ‘carrot’ approach

Tower said that China appears to favor a “carrot” approach in its dealings with Myanmar’s military.

In 2024, the Chinese Ministry of Public Security awarded its highest honor, the Golden Great Wall Commemorative Medal, to Myanmar’s home affairs minister, Lieutenant General Yar Pyae, for joint efforts against transnational crime. However, analysts argue that despite China’s support, Myanmar’s military focuses on territorial battles rather than combating scam operations.

According to Tower, Myanmar’s military lacks the capacity and the political will to address these syndicates effectively because the Myanmar military must rely on militia leader Saw Chit Thu to maintain control over Myawaddy, a crucial trade hub.

Saw Chit Thu, the leader of the BGF, has been sanctioned by the United States, United Kingdom and European Union for his role in protecting Chinese gangs and scam operations.

Scam networks reshuffle

China’s aggressive crackdowns on scam networks along its northern border with Myanmar in recent years have pushed many scam operations to relocate to Myawaddy, Karen State, far from Beijing’s immediate oversight. Unlike northern Myanmar, where China has exerted direct pressure, Myawaddy’s geographical distance and political dynamics pose unique challenges to Beijing.

Hla Kyaw Zaw said that China has seen some success in cracking down on online scams near its borders, but these efforts are largely localized. The measures have been less effective in other areas, such as Myawaddy, and scams continue to thrive.

“China closely monitors illegal activities in and around Myawaddy but depends on Thailand’s cooperation to address these issues,” Hla Kyaw Zaw said.

In response to VOA’s inquiries regarding scam operations, the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar highlighted recent joint combat efforts by China and Myanmar against online scam operations.

According to the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar’s announcement on Tuesday, China will soon launch the second phase of its “Jingyao Joint Law Enforcement Operation” initiative, a multinational effort with Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam to combat telecom fraud and transnational crime, following a first phase that resulted in over 70,000 arrests regionally and the rescue of 160 victims, mainly from northern Myanmar along the China border.

Social media uproar

Chinese actor Wang’s abduction sparked outrage on Chinese social media platforms, along with a growing database of families whose relatives have disappeared under similar circumstances.

A joint letter from the families of 174 people believed to be trapped in Myanmar went viral on China’s social media platform, Sina Weibo, on Jan. 9.

A political and strategic dilemma

As scam networks grow more sophisticated, analysts say Beijing faces a challenging balancing act between protecting its citizens and maintaining its strategic interests in Myanmar. Experts such as Tower are urging Beijing to reassess its priorities.

“China’s strategy is failing,” Tower argued. “The reality is, as you can see, how easily Chinese [civilians] are still trafficked into the Myanmar military Border Guard Force territory,” he said. “It’s not able to deal with these problems with the military.”

However, balancing crackdowns without destabilizing the Myanmar regime presents a challenge.

“China seems to be losing on both fronts,” Tower said. “This is a really tricky issue. On one hand, China doesn’t want the Myanmar military regime to collapse. And it recognizes that if it goes back to using that stick, it’s going to speed up the collapse of the Myanmar military.”

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US pressure mounts on Thailand over 48 Uyghur detainees as hunger strike continues

WASHINGTON — The plight of 48 Uyghur detainees in Thailand has drawn international scrutiny as the group’s hunger strike protesting their possible return to China stretches into day 15 with the U.S. State Department, U.N. officials and activists voicing concern.

“By international human rights standards, such a prolonged hunger strike requires authorities to address grievances and ensure the detainees’ well-being,” said Rushan Abbas, executive director of the Campaign for Uyghurs and chairperson of the World Uyghur Congress executive committee.

The group of Uyghurs has been held in Bangkok’s Immigration Detention Centre (IDC) since 2014, fleeing alleged persecution in China’s Xinjiang region. After more than a decade of detention there, their future remains precarious amid mounting calls for Thailand to uphold its human rights commitments.

US and Thai response

A U.S. State Department spokesperson told VOA late Thursday that Washington is “following this situation closely” and “deeply concerned by the reports.”

The spokesperson told VOA that the United States is engaging with the Royal Thai Government on the matter.

“We continue to urge the Royal Thai Government to respect the principle of non-refoulement and to uphold its respective non-refoulment obligations under international law,” the spokesperson said. “As Secretary [of State Marco] Rubio indicated during his confirmation hearing, he is prepared to use diplomacy and leverage the longstanding U.S.-Thailand alliance to engage the Royal Thai Government on the reported imminent repatriation of Uyghur detainees to China.”

At a press conference on Friday, Thailand’s Foreign Ministry said “no decision has been made” regarding the Uyghur detainees.

“Any decision on this matter will be based on relevant domestic legal frameworks, human rights principles, especially the principle of non-refoulement, including Thailand’s obligation to refrain from returning people to where they will face torture or enforced disappearance,” said Nikorndej Balankura, the ministry’s director general of information. “For the time being no decision has been made. I can assure their safety.”

Advocates sound alarm

Despite assurances from Thai officials, human rights advocates remain skeptical, warning of the severe consequences if the Uyghur detainees are repatriated to China.

The 48 men, arrested in 2014 alongside over 300 other Uyghurs attempting to cross into Malaysia via human trafficking routes from China’s Yunnan province, have been detained in Thailand for more than a decade. In 2015, 109 of the Uyghurs were forcibly deported to China, sparking international outrage, with their fates still unknown. Meanwhile, 173 women and children were resettled in Turkey, and five detainees, including two children, have died since 2014.

Abbas expressed alarm over the uncertain future of the Uyghur detainees, drawing a parallel to the “devastating precedent” set in 2015.

“These 48 men could face the same dark fate as those deported nearly a decade ago. The Thai government must not repeat the mistakes of 2015,” Abbas said. “At that time, despite making similar assurances as today’s, Thai authorities sent 109 Uyghur men to China. They likely disappeared into the black hole of a regime infamous for torture and genocide.”

Abbas also cited concerns that the deportations could occur imminently, possibly before the Thai prime minister’s scheduled visit to China on Feb. 4.

“It seems they are trying to gain leverage from China by acting before the visit,” she told VOA in a phone interview.

The stakes in 2025, Abbas emphasized, are even higher than in 2015.

“If Thailand chooses to deport these Uyghurs despite the U.S. genocide determination and the U.N. finding of crimes against humanity, it would be a grave violation of international law and an affront to the principles of human rights,” she said. “Thailand should prepare for a tsunami of condemnation and face severe economic and political consequences.”

In 2021, the U.S. formally designated China’s treatment of the Uyghurs as genocide, and in a 2022 report, the U.N. human rights office stated that China’s actions in Xinjiang may amount to crimes against humanity, including torture, forced labor, and forced sterilization.

China’s response

China has repeatedly denied the U.N. and U.S. determinations of genocide, asserting that its actions in Xinjiang are aimed at combating separatism, extremism and terrorism – what Beijing refers to as the “three evils.”

The Chinese Embassy in Bangkok weighed in last Wednesday, alleging the Uyghur detainees had terrorist affiliations.

“A small number of individuals, enticed by external forces, fled abroad and even joined the ‘East Turkestan Islamic Movement’ [ETIM], a terrorist organization recognized by the United Nations, becoming terrorists themselves,” the embassy stated on its website.

However, the narrative surrounding ETIM has evolved. While the group was designated a terrorist organization by the U.N. in 2002, the U.S. delisted it in 2020. A report by the Congressional Research Service at the time cited a lack of “clear and convincing evidence of ETIM’s existence.”

Health deterioration

According to U.N. experts, the detainees’ health is rapidly deteriorating. In a statement earlier this week, they said 23 of the 48 suffer from serious health conditions including diabetes, kidney disfunction, lower body paralysis, skin diseases, gastrointestinal illnesses, and heart and lung conditions.

“It is essential they be provided with the necessary and appropriate medical care,” the report said.

U.S. Representative Gregory Meeks, ranking member of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, issued a statement on Wednesday condemning any potential deportation.

“If these Uyghurs are deported back to the PRC, Thailand would be violating the customary practice of nonrefoulement and its commitments as State Party to the UN Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment,” he said, using the acronym for China’s official name, the People’s Republic of China.

Meeks called on the Thai government to guarantee the detainees’ protection, provide them with access to asylum procedures, and ensure they receive the medical care they need.

Nike Ching and Rattaphol Onsanit contributed to this report.

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Lunar New Year travel offers boost to China’s economic woes

China’s annual mass migration ahead of the Lunar New Year will peak with billions of trips anticipated during this year’s holiday, which begins Tuesday.

An estimated 9 billion trips are expected. This year’s holiday lasts from Jan. 28 through Feb. 4 and marks the arrival of the Year of the Snake. Authorities in China extended the annual break an extra day, so the public holiday will last eight days this year.

During the holiday, travel is expected to pick up domestically and internationally. The government said it expects trips by train to surpass 510 million, with 90 million more traveling by air. Inside the country, most will travel by car.

For trips overseas, travel to Southeast Asia has surged, with ticket volumes to Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia rising by more than 50%, according to data from the World Travel and Tourism Council. Additionally, demand for travel to Hong Kong has nearly doubled, and Japan is seeing a 58% increase in airline ticket purchases.

While the Lunar New Year is known as a festive time characterized by colorful lanterns, parades and lion dances, it holds more than just cultural significance to Chinese authorities who see the period as an opportunity to boost a sluggish economy.

That is one key reason authorities increased the holiday to eight days. They also launched several efforts to help revive weak consumer spending, such as promoting winter-themed holiday destinations and ensuring affordable airfares, according to officials at a State Council press conference in Beijing.

Despite the efforts, Reuters reported businesses and consumers appear to be spending less than usual during the holiday season, citing concerns over a prolonged property slump and worries over job security.

Throughout the past year, China has implemented a series of measures aimed at addressing those concerns, including stimulus measures such as cutting interest rates, increasing pensions and widening trade-in programs for consumer goods.

One industry that appears to have gotten a boost from the festival season is cinema.

The film industry in China had struggled recently, seeing a 22.6% decrease in total box office revenue in 2024. However, according to data from Maoyan, a Chinese ticketing platform, movie tickets exceeded $55 million by Jan. 23, the fastest presales for the Lunar New Year season.

A large part of that increased demand has been from the film “Legends of the Condor Heroes,” starring Xiao Zhan, an actor and singer who is also a brand ambassador for luxury goods companies such as Gucci and Tod’s.

Shops and restaurants also hope to see an increase in spending that mirrors the film industry over the course of the holiday.

Some information in this report came from Reuters and The Associated Press.

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