The Nature news team recently published an analysis of the retraction rates of academic articles by institutions around the world over the past decade. The analysis found that from 2014 to 2024, Jining First People’s Hospital ranked first in the world in the global retraction rate ranking, with a total retraction rate of more than 5%, which is 50 times the global average. Among the top 10 institutions, another six are from China. 

Click here for the full story in Mandarin. 
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SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA — South Korea’s spy agency said Thursday that North Korea appears to have sent additional troops to Russia after its soldiers deployed on the Russian-Ukraine fronts suffered heavy casualties.

The National Intelligence Service said in a brief statement it was trying to determine how many more troops North Korea has deployed to Russia.

The NIS also assessed that North Korean troops were redeployed at fronts in Russia’s Kursk region in the first week of February, following a reported temporary withdrawal from the area. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in an address on Feb. 7, confirmed a new Ukrainian offensive in Kursk and said North Korean troops were fighting alongside Russian forces there.

North Korea has been supplying a vast number of conventional weapons to Russia, and last fall it sent 10,000 to 12,000 troops to Russia, according to U.S., South Korean and Ukraine intelligence officials.

North Korean soldiers are highly disciplined and well trained, but observers say they’ve become easy targets for drone and artillery attacks on Russian-Ukraine battlefields because of their lack of combat experience and unfamiliarity with the terrain.

In January, the NIS said about 300 North Korean soldiers had died and 2,700 had been injured. Zelenskyy earlier put the number of killed or wounded North Koreans at 4,000, although U.S. estimates were lower at around 1,200.

Earlier Thursday, South Korea’s JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, citing unidentified sources, reported that an additional 1,000 to 3,000 North Korean soldiers were deployed to Kursk between January and February.

South Korea, the United States and their partners worry that Russia could reward North Korea by transferring high-tech weapons technologies that can sharply enhance its nuclear weapons program. North Korea is expected to receive economic and other assistance from Russia, as well.

During talks in Saudi Arabia last week, Russia and the U.S. agreed to start working toward ending the war and improving their diplomatic and economic ties. Ukrainian officials weren’t present at the talks. That marked an extraordinary shift in U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump and a clear departure from U.S.-led efforts to isolate Russia over its war in Ukraine.
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washington — As more countries enact cybercrime legislation, analysts warn that efforts to combat legitimate concerns could also allow for easier targeting of critics.

Analysts have warned that amendments in Pakistan and Myanmar in recent months could add to already repressive environments. 

Some point to Nigeria as a test case. Since passing its cybercrime law in 2015, watchdogs have documented 29 cases of journalists being charged, including four who were charged in a Lagos court in September.

“What we are seeing is a steady criminalization of journalists around the world, and it’s a huge threat to press freedom,” said Jonathan Rozen, a senior researcher at the Committee to Protect Journalists, or CPJ.

In Pakistan, the government in January amended the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act of 2016 (PECA). Authorities said the changes would curb cybercrime, online harassment and the spread of hateful content that could instigate violence.

Pakistan’s federal information minister, Attaullah Tarar, said the law was needed “to regulate social media.”

“Countries across the world have some codes or standards under which social media operate, but there was none in our country,” he told reporters last month.

The amendment led to protests by journalists and civil society, who said the changes would make it easy for authorities to prosecute people whose opinions are not in line with those of the government.

Analysts pointed to broad terms, including definitions of “unlawful” content and “person,” with the latter now including state institutions and corporations. 

Another amendment proposed the creation of a Digital Rights Protection Authority that can remove content from social media platforms.

Critics and media rights groups worry this could expose journalists and social media users to increased restrictions and legal action, restrict dissent and open doors for the powerful military establishment to target and harass civilians.

Before the reforms, watchdogs recorded more than 200 cases of journalists being investigated since PECA was passed.  

Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the changes in Pakistan’s cybercrime law would make an “already repressive online atmosphere even worse and restrictive.”

Pakistan’s military has imposed a “much tougher crackdown” in the past year, said Kurlantzick.

“They have gone well out of their way to target individuals, civil rights activists, journalists, and use anti-freedom laws to target those people, and often put them in jail,” he said.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Information did not respond to VOA’s request for comment.

Similar concerns are shared in Myanmar, where the junta last July passed an expansive cybercrime law. The law targeted virtual private networks, or VPNs, that allow internet users to circumvent blocked websites and censorship.

The junta said the new law was needed to protect against cyberattacks and cybercrimes that could threaten the country’s stability.

Since seizing power in a coup in February 2021, Myanmar’s military has revoked broadcast licenses, blocked access to websites and jailed journalists. The country is the third worst jailer of journalists, with 35 detained, according to the latest CPJ data.

An expert with the Myanmar Internet Project, a digital rights group, told VOA at the time that the law was more focused on suppressing rights than protecting the public.  

“All the provisions of the law are designed to suppress rather than protect the public,” the expert, who asked to be identified only as U Han, said. “We believe that the junta will use this bill as a weapon prepared for this purpose.”

Kurlantzick, however, believes the military would struggle to restrict the online space.

“Myanmar’s military has no power to restrict online dissent anymore, as 70% of the country is in control of the opposition groups,” he said. “The government, which can’t provide power, water or other services even in the biggest cities, doesn’t have the ability to crack down on the internet now.”

In Nigeria, the 2015 Cybercrimes (Prohibition, Prevention, Etc) Act has been used to file cases against journalists who investigate corruption. But the government has made some reforms based on civil society and press freedom group recommendations.

Two sections of the cybercrime law had been of particular concern because of the “very broad and vague wording” that allowed the arrest of journalists for sending what were deemed  “annoying” or “defamatory” messages, said CPJ’s Rozen.

Changes made in 2024 narrowed the language. 

“It constrained the opportunity for authorities to arrest journalists only if the messages were knowingly false, or if it was causing a breakdown of law or causing a threat to life,” said Rozen, who added that other areas remain “overly broad and could be abused.”

One section he cited allows for law enforcement to access information from service providers without a court order.

Nigeria’s police have used this to access data of journalists, said Rozen, noting that four journalists are currently facing prosecution under the cybercrime act. 

Rozen agrees that “misinformation and disinformation are challenges for society, but what is being observed,” he said, “is a criminalization of journalists on accusations that they are sharing false information, and in many cases, this is used as a shorthand to smother or crush” dissenting voices.

With more reporting and publishing taking place online, the tools some governments use to suppress journalists are adapting to the modernization of the industry, Rozen said. 
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TAIPEI, TAIWAN — A new survey by Chinese media shows that housing rents in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have fallen to 2015–2017 levels, while rents in Guangzhou, Chengdu and Tianjin have dropped to the early 2010s levels.

Analysts attribute the decline in rents to falling household incomes, which have weakened demand.

Click here for the full story in Mandarin.
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Manila — A young kidnap victim clad in pajamas and missing a finger was rescued from the side of a busy Manila thoroughfare this week after his abductors ditched him during a police pursuit, Philippine authorities said Wednesday.

The kidnappers, like their teenaged target, were Chinese nationals, said the interior department’s Juanito Victor Remulla, and part of a “sophisticated” syndicate with ties to the now-banned offshore gambling sites known locally as POGOs.

Notorious as fronts for human trafficking, money laundering and fraud, POGOs were banned by President Ferdinand Marcos last year, sending those who worked for them in search of new income streams.

“We are definite that the syndicate behind the kidnapping were former POGO operators,” Remulla told reporters, adding those involved had lost a lucrative living when the sites were shuttered.

The kidnappers tried and failed to obtain a ransom — at one point sending the parents a video of the victim’s finger being severed — before they were tracked down on Tuesday and pursued by police who homed in on their cellphone signal.

“The choice was pursuing the vehicle or securing the child. Obviously, the [police] prioritized the child,” Remulla said. A manhunt remains underway.

The boy’s driver, who had picked him up outside an exclusive private school days earlier, was found murdered inside another vehicle in Bulacan province north of Manila.

“These [cases] arose in January after all POGOs were closed; they got into kidnapping,” Remulla said, without providing statistics.

AFP is aware of at least two other kidnapping cases involving Chinese nationals living in the Philippines this year.

While describing the incident as “Chinese against Chinese” crime, Remulla said disaffected former Filipino police or soldiers were likely used as foot soldiers in some cases.

Gilberto Cruz, chief of the Philippines’ anti-organized crime commission, told AFP that government figures showed there were still about 11,000 Chinese nationals in the country after the gambling sites they worked for were shuttered.

“Some have turned to other crimes, but we can’t provide numbers as of now,” he said, before adding that some had likely ventured into “kidnapping operations.”

At a press conference on Wednesday, the immigration department said about 300 foreign nationals linked to POGOs were being held at a detention facility built for 100 while awaiting deportation.

In a separate statement, the department said 98 Chinese nationals had been repatriated to China aboard a chartered Philippine Airlines flight on Tuesday night.

The Chinese embassy said the joint repatriation marked “another step in the law enforcing cooperation of the two countries after the ban on POGOs.”
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PENTAGON — President Donald Trump’s nominee for deputy secretary of defense is warning that China’s military is resolute on surpassing the United States and is calling for a fix to “significant” military shortages at a time when administration leaders are trying to make big budget cuts.

“China is incredibly determined, they feel a great sense of urgency, and they’ll be fully dedicated to becoming the strongest nation in the world and having dominance over the United States,” Steve Feinberg told members of the Senate Armed Service Committee on Tuesday.  

Feinberg, a businessman and investor, said the U.S. military shortages include “shipbuilding, nuclear modernization, aircraft development, cyber defense, hypersonics, counter space, defending our satellites [and] counter drones.”

“We really need to plug these shortages, focus on our priorities, get rid of legacy programs, be very disciplined, while at the same time focusing on the economics. If we do that, given America’s great innovative capability, entrepreneurship, we will defeat China. If we don’t, our very national security is at risk,” Feinberg said.

The hearing comes as Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has called on the department to cut 8% — roughly $50 billion — to reinvest in priorities aligned with a “more lethal fighting force.”

Senator Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, on Tuesday pushed back against the move saying, “Slashing the defense budget will not create efficiency in our military. It will cripple it.”

The concern about cuts to the military has echoed on both sides of the aisle.

Republican committee Chairman Roger Wicker told the Breaking Defense news organization last month that he hoped to increase defense spending by as much as $200 billion in coming years.

And Republican Senator Dan Sullivan on Tuesday called for prioritizing solutions to shipbuilding to counter threats from China and others.

“We’re in the worst crisis in shipbuilding in over 40 years. The Chinese are building a giant navy. It’s already bigger than ours,” he said.

China’s military has about 370 warships, according to the Pentagon’s latest China Military Power Report, while the U.S. military has about 300.

Feinberg acknowledged that the shipbuilding shortage is “a tough problem” for the military.

“Our supply chain is definitely weak. Our workforce needs to be improved. But a big piece of improving our supply chain is working more closely with our private sector. We have companies that can get at where our needs are, where our shortages are, and we need to work more closely with them. We need people inside of government that understand their issues,” Feinberg said.

Several Democrats on the committee were critical of interference at the Pentagon by the Department of Government Efficiency, saying it could create a major vulnerability should its members not handle data more carefully.

“They [DOGE] just sent an unclassified email with CIA recent hire names in an unclassified space. As a former CIA officer, you just blew the cover of someone who was going to risk their life abroad to protect our country,” said Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin.

“Do you know how appetizing it is for our adversaries to have this data? … It is quite literally an issue of safety and security,” she added.

Democrats also raised concern about plans to let go more than 5,000 Pentagon civilian employees this week, while Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin countered that cutting 5,000 jobs amounted to less than 0.5% of the workforce.

“Our national debt is now costing us more to just pay interest than we spend on our military. That’s a huge national security risk,” he said. “And so, at what point do we start making cuts?”
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TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwanese authorities are investigating a Chinese-crewed ship suspected of severing an undersea communications cable in the latest such incident adding to tensions between Taipei and Beijing. 

Taiwan’s coast guard intercepted the Togolese-flagged cargo ship Hongtai in waters between its main island’s west coast and the outlying Penghu Islands early Tuesday, according to a statement by the coast guard. 

The coast guard had earlier been notified by telecommunications provider Chunghwa Telecom that one of its undersea cables had been severed 6 nautical miles (11 kilometers) northwest of Jiangjun Fishing Harbor. 

The Hongtai had been anchored in that same area since Saturday evening, the coast guard said. From Saturday until early Tuesday, authorities in the nearby Anping Port in Tainan had sent signals to the vessel seven times but had received no response. After the Chunghwa Telecom cable damage report, the coast guard approached the ship, which had begun to sail northwestward, and escorted it to Anping Port. 

Taiwanese authorities said the ship’s entire eight-person crew were Chinese nationals and the case was being handled “in accordance with national security-level principles.” 

“The cause of the underwater cable break, whether it was due to intentional sabotage or simply an accident, is still pending further investigation for clarification,” the coast guard said. 

“The possibility of this being part of a gray-zone incursion by China cannot be ruled out,” it added. 

Communications on the Penghu Islands were not disrupted because Chunghwa Telecom had successfully activated a backup cable, the coast guard said. 

This is the latest in a series of incidents in recent years in which undersea Taiwanese cables have been damaged — with Taipei in some instances blaming China. Earlier this year, a Chinese cargo ship was suspected of severing a link northeast of the island. 

In February 2023, two undersea cables serving Taiwan’s Matsu Islands were severed, disrupting communications for weeks. 

Taipei fears China might damage its underwater communications cables as part of attempts to blockade or seize the island, which Beijing claims as its own. 

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said during a regular press briefing on Tuesday that he was not aware of the issue and it did not pertain to diplomacy. 
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The top U.S. Army officer for the Asia-Pacific region began a two-day visit to Cambodia Monday in a trip designed to expand and improve frayed ties between the two nations.

General Ronald P. Clark, the commanding general of the United States Army Pacific met with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and senior Cambodian military officials in Phnom Penh.

Ties between the U.S. and Cambodia have been strained with Washington’s criticism of Cambodia’s political repression and human rights violations.

However, the U.S. and other countries are also greatly concerned with Cambodia’s close ties with China. Of special interest is China’s access to the Ream Naval Base near the disputed South China Sea, a waterway China claims almost in full.

In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague rejected China’s sweeping claims. The naval base is strategically located in the Gulf of Thailand, which borders the western section of the South China Sea. The base’s renovation was funded by China.

China has contributed massive amounts of money to Cambodia’s updating of its infrastructure with the help beginning when the prime minister’s father, Hun Sen, was leading the country.

That funding continues and later Monday, Manet met with Yin LI, a member of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, according to a post on the prime minister’s Telegram account.

The post said the Li praised the progress on “all cooperation in all fields” between Cambodia and China.

During the meeting, Clark also expressed his admiration for Cambodia for sending U.N. peacekeepers to several international locations, according to the prime minister’s office.

The prime minister also thanked the U.S. for its assistance in helping to clear explosives from Cambodia after years of war that left Cambodia in the late 1990s with 4 million to 6 million land mines and other unexploded ordnance, including unexploded U.S. bombs.

Clark also met Monday with General Mao Sophan, Cambodia’s military chief.

The two military generals had “constructive discussions,” the army said in a statement. Topics of their talks included defense, trade, tourism, counterterrorism, peacekeeping and demining, the Cambodian army said.

Their discussion also included the possible revival of the Angkor Sentinel exercise, the joint military exercises previously held by the U.S. and Cambodia that were abandoned nearly 10 years ago, the army said.

Some information provided by The Associated Press and Agence France-Presse.
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Beijing — China’s rising demand for food calls for increased efforts to boost grain production even after record-high output in recent years, China’s Central Rural Work Leading Group said on Monday.

“More than 1.4 billion of us want to eat, and we want to eat better and better,” Han Wenxiu, a director from China’s Central Rural Work Leading Group told a news conference.

More people eat meat, eggs and milk in greater volumes, which requires a large-scale increase in grain for feed, Han said.

China is the world’s largest agriculture producer and importer, bringing in more than 157 million metric tons of grain and soybeans last year, when it also reported record grain production of 706.5 million tons.

In its annual rural work policy blueprint released on Sunday, known as the No. 1 document, the State Council sharpened China’s focus on self-sufficiency and supply stability to counter potential disruptions to agricultural trade with the United States, the European Union and Canada.

Last year’s bumper harvest helped to stabilize prices and relieved consumers’ concerns, Han said.

But he cited “the current complex and severe domestic and international environment,” and said the need to buffer shocks from extreme weather conditions called for increased output.

“The central government’s policy is clear: grain production can only be strengthened, not relaxed. We must not say that grains have passed the test just because of a momentary downturn in prices,” he said.

China has further potential to develop and integrate biotechnology, strengthen equipment support and build a diversified food supply system to ensure food security, he said.

The agriculture ministry aims to increase grain production by 50 million tons by 2030, which would be a 7% increase over 2024’s grain harvest.
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Bangkok — In a record year for internet shutdowns, countries in the Asia-Pacific region imposed the most restrictions, according to a new report. 

Myanmar is the worst-affected country worldwide, with 85 shutdowns last year, research by the digital rights group Access Now found. 

Its report, released Monday, Feb. 24, shows authorities worldwide imposed at least 296 shutdowns in 54 countries. Conflict — followed by protests, school or university exams and elections — was the biggest trigger, Access Now found. 

For the Asia-Pacific region, the report finds 202 shutdowns in 11 countries or territories. It is the highest number ever recorded by Access Now in a single year for the region.

The three countries with the worst record are all in Asia: 190 cases in Myanmar, India and Pakistan accounted for around 64% of all recorded shutdowns in 2024. India, often referred to as the biggest democracy in the world, had 84 recorded cases.    

VOA contacted Myanmar’s military administration, and the Washington embassies for India and Pakistan for comment. As of publication, VOA had not received a reply. 

Raman Jit Singh Chima, the Asia Pacific policy director at Access Now, warned of a rise of digital authoritarianism in Asia.

“Shutdowns destabilize societies, undermine digital progress, put entire communities at risk, and provide a cloak of impunity for human rights abuses,” he said in a statement. “Authorities from Myanmar to Pakistan are isolating people from the rest of the world with impunity, reflecting the rising digital authoritarianism in Asia.”

Access Now collects data on shutdowns, which include cables being cut, equipment confiscated, platforms being blocked, and orders to telecommunication companies. 

‘Rebirth’ of radio

Since seizing power in a coup in February 2021, the junta in Myanmar has regularly blocked access to the internet. The junta says the blocks are to maintain “stability” and prevent what it calls the spread of disinformation and fake news. 

At the same time, the junta has jailed dozens of journalists and revoked media licenses. 

Out of the 85 shutdowns imposed in Myanmar last year, 31 coincided with documented human rights abuses and at least 17 correlated with airstrikes on civilians, the Access Now report found.

The record puts the country among the worst for digital rights for the fourth consecutive year, the report found. 

Toe Zaw Latt, a veteran journalist from Myanmar, told VOA it was “no surprise” that the country tops the list.

“Myanmar has one of the worst censorship [records] on digital platforms,” he said. “[The military does this] so most of the people can’t access independent information or internet mainly, especially young people. They just want one version of truth, the army’s version of truth.”

Zaw Latt said the junta is trying to prevent “independent access of information on the internet.”  

A journalist for decades, Zaw Latt is also secretary of the Independent Press Council Myanmar. He said the internet blocks have seen a “rebirth” in radio. 

“Globally, radio is dying but it’s having a rebirth in Burma because it’s cheap and accessible,” he said, using the country’s former name. “Even some people go back, very primitive, back to print because of these internet shutdowns.”

Still, Zaw Latt said, it is not possible to completely cut off the internet, “because people will find a way.”

Alongside shutdowns the junta has passed laws to further control the information narrative.

On Jan. 1, a cybersecurity law was enacted in Myanmar, banning the use of Virtual Private Networks, or VPNs, that people use to access blocked or censored content. The law penalizes those who share information from banned websites. Experts say it’s another attempt from the junta to suppress public information.

Two other Asian countries — Malaysia and Thailand — also made the list for the Southeast Asia region for the first time.

Thailand was included after it shut electricity and internet connections on its border with Myanmar following an attempt to crack down on scam centers that have lured thousands into forced labor and scammed billions from internet users worldwide.

Overall, press freedom in East Asia continues to see a decline, according to Reporters without Borders. The global watchdog reports that 26 out of 31 countries in the Asia-Pacific region have seen a decline in press freedoms between 2023 and 2024.
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Moscow — Myanmar and its close ally Russia signed a memorandum on investment cooperation in a special economic zone in Dawei, including construction of a port and an oil refinery, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development said on Sunday.  

The document was signed by the head of the Russian ministry, Maxim Reshetnikov, and Myanmar’s minister for investment and foreign economic relations, Kan Zaw, during a visit of a Russian delegation to the Southeast Asian country.  

“The text of the memorandum contains the basic parameters of several large infrastructure and energy projects that are being implemented jointly with Russian companies in Myanmar,” the Russian ministry cited Reshetnikov as saying in a statement.  

“We are talking about projects to build a port, a coal-fired thermal power plant and an oil refinery.” 

He added that “oil refining is still the most complex element,” and there was no final decision on construction of a refinery. 

“As for the refinery — there is a desire of the Myanmar side to have a refinery. Our companies are still studying the economics of such a project, it is very complicated from the point of view of economic feasibility,” Interfax news agency cited Reshetnikov.  

According to the Russian ministry, the Dawei special economic zone is a 196 square-kilometer project in the Andaman Sea which is planned to house high-tech industrial zones and transport hubs, information technology zones and export processing zones.  

Russia has become Myanmar’s closest ally since the military coup that overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected civilian government in February 2021. 

Moscow and Naypyidaw have been discussing a deeper energy cooperation, including Russia’s participation in the construction of a gas pipeline to the Myanmar’s main city Yangon. Russia has also had plans for a nuclear research reactor in the country. 
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HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM — Analysts are pointing to management and funding issues for Vietnam’s planned north-south, high-speed rail initiative and express concerns over potential “debt traps” and growing Chinese influence as Beijing funds a railway connecting the two countries.

The comments come as Vietnam is expanding its infrastructure by building railways using Chinese and Vietnamese funding, projects that could help the country’s outlook in the long term. As part of the effort, Vietnam’s National Assembly on Feb. 19 gave near-unanimous approval to legislation allowing the country to use Chinese loans for a new $8.3 billion rail link from the port city of Haiphong to China.

Nguyen Hong Minh, then the transport minister, announced Vietnam’s plans to use the Chinese loans for the 391-kilometer passenger and freight line from Lao Cai on the Chinese border and passing through Hanoi.

“Vietnam’s current railway system is outdated, and the country needs a new system to support its economic development,” Minh, now the construction minister, said, adding that construction is expected to begin this year and be completed by 2030.

The National Assembly vote followed its November approval of construction of a high-speed railway connecting Hanoi to the country’s southern economic hub, Ho Chi Minh City. That project is Vietnam’s most ambitious infrastructure initiative to date and is projected to cost Vietnam $67 billion. Authorities said construction should begin in 2027 and be completed by 2035.

Ha Hoang Hop, chair of the Hanoi-based Think Tank Viet Know, told VOA on Feb. 17 that while both projects could modernize the country’s transport network and improve its economy, “public sentiment is cautious.”

“There have been several publicly funded railway and infrastructure projects in Vietnam that have led to public frustration due to delays, cost overruns and poor-quality outcomes,” Hop said.

“Public skepticism is also fueled by fears of debt traps associated with Chinese loans,” he said.

Hop cited fear the construction of the high-speed rail project could be dogged by the country’s “historical issues with project management and corruption.”

“There is indeed concern that the north-south, high-speed rail could face similar challenges given the scale and complexity of the project,” Hop said.

Mismanagement and corruption

Albert Tan, associate professor at the Asian Institute of Management in Manila, told VOA on Feb. 18 that while Vietnam’s railway modernization will improve the country’s supply chain efficiency, the major problem is corruption.

“The corruption level in Vietnam is so high that when you have that amount of money that the Chinese are pumping in, I’m sure there will always be leakages,” he said.

Tan said railway funds ending up in “someone’s pocket” have caused delays and cost overruns for Vietnam’s two city Metro lines. In 2021, the Chinese-funded Cat Linh-Ha Dong Metro line began running in Hanoi, five years behind its originally planned opening. The first line of the Ho Chi Minh City Metro, primarily funded by Japan, opened in December 2024, six years behind schedule. Costs ballooned for both Metro lines while under construction and delayed payments to contractors slowed the process.

“Somehow the money doesn’t go back to the contractor. Money goes somewhere to other stakeholders,” Tan said.

For the north-south, high-speed rail, Hop said the country is planning to rely on domestic funding with capital likely to come in the form of “government bonds, public investment and possibly some low-interest loans.”

“A $67 billion project will still be a significant challenge requiring careful financial management,” Hop said.

Chinese influence

Hanoi’s decision to pursue domestic funding for its high-speed rail shows the country’s drive to “maintain strategic autonomy,” Hop said. As it looks to Chinese loans for another rail project, though, “there remains a significant portion of the populace wary of increasing economic dependency on China,” he added.

Tran Anh Quan, a Vietnamese social activist currently living in exile, told VOA on Feb. 18 he fears the Chinese-funded railway will leave Hanoi indebted to Beijing and could be a weak point if conflict were to break out between the countries.

“This is definitely a debt trap,” he said. “Expanding the railway to China would be very dangerous if China attacked Vietnam.”

Tan also shared concerns over the “one-way” flow of money. He said the Chinese loans are likely to be paid to Chinese firms that will “retain control over construction and maintenance, with little technology transfer to local engineers.”

Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, told VOA that Chinese influence in the region is already “massive.” He said Chinese funding for the Vietnamese railway is in line with Beijing’s goal to expand its influence in Southeast Asia.

The railway “fits right into China’s efforts to link the Mekong region, and to connect them to China,” he wrote in an email.

Kurlantzick said that in Vietnam’s delicate balancing act between Washington and Beijing, China is taking the upper hand as he sees U.S. influence waning with the withdrawal of funding to Vietnam through USAID and weakening public diplomacy more broadly.

“China is by far the dominant economic power in Southeast Asia already, increasingly the dominant security power, and now, with the U.S. giving up its soft power in the region, China will increasingly bolster its soft power in the region, too, making it even more dominant,” Kurlantzick said.

Minh Son To, a research assistant focused on Vietnamese and Chinese politics at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, told VOA February 20 Hanoi has looked to Laos with concern after a China-funded high-speed rail threw the country into an “existential debt crisis.” Still, he said many are eager to see Vietnam develop.

“Any ‘China’ label is bound to evoke some concern, though I wouldn’t overstate that,” he told VOA. “Vietnamese know that they need development and infrastructure, regardless of where it comes from.”
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