TOKYO — A Japanese high court ruled Friday that Japan’s refusal to legally recognize same-sex marriage is unconstitutional, the latest victory for same-sex couples and their supporters seeking equal rights.

Friday’s decision by the Nagoya High Court, in central Japan, marks the ninth victory out of 10 rulings since the first group of plaintiffs filed lawsuits in 2019.

The decision was also the fourth high court ruling in a row to find the current government policy unconstitutional, after similar decisions in Tokyo, Fukuoka and Sapporo.

After a fifth court ruling expected later this month in Osaka, the Supreme Court is expected to handle all five appeals and make a decision.

The Nagoya court said Friday that not allowing same-sex couples the legal right to marry violates a constitutional guarantee of equality. The court also upheld the right to individual dignity and the essential equality of both sexes.

The current civil law, which defines marriage as being between a man and a woman, is discrimination based on sexual orientation and lacks rationality, the ruling said.

The government has argued that marriage under civil law does not cover same-sex couples and places importance on natural reproduction. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters after the ruling Friday that the government will monitor pending lawsuits and public opinion.

The plaintiffs and their lawyers say the overwhelming winning record of 9-1 in the courts is already enough and the government should quickly take action.

More than 30 plaintiffs have joined the lawsuits on marriage equality filed in five regions across Japan since 2019. They argue that civil law provisions barring same-sex marriage violate the Constitutional right to equality and freedom of marriage.
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WASHINGTON — North Korea continues to shun international humanitarian workers despite ongoing humanitarian needs in the country, U.N. officials say.

Elizabeth Salmon, U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in North Korea, said this week that human rights conditions in North Korea continue to deteriorate as a result.

“International staff of the United Nations and humanitarian and development organizations have not been able to return to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” Salmon said in her report to the 58th session of the U.N. Human Rights Council.

“That means that the humanitarian and development assistance that the United Nations could provide is constrained, and an independent assessment of the humanitarian situation is not possible,” Salmon continued.

North Korea’s official name is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

The country’s pandemic border restrictions in 2020 forced international aid groups, foreign diplomatic corps, and tourists to leave the country.

Ongoing humanitarian needs

The U.N. office that oversees humanitarian work in North Korea said it has been talking with Pyongyang for a possible date for its staff to resume their work. The deadline set for completing its planned goals in North Korea is set to expire at the end of the year.

“There is currently no firm date for the return of international staff to Pyongyang, but discussions are continuing on timing and modalities,” said a spokesperson for the office of Joe Colombano, the U.N. resident coordinator for North Korea.

“We reiterate that the United Nations in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea stands ready to resume its regular activities to implement the Strategic Framework for Cooperation between the United Nations and the Government of the DPRK,” the spokesperson told VOA on Wednesday.

The U.N. Resident Coordinator Office works with about seven U.N. humanitarian agencies, including the United Nation’s children agency UNICEF, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO), to implement a set of goals agreed to in the Strategic Framework.

Some of the goals are “improving people’s well-being” economically and socially, providing “technical assistance and transfer of knowledge, based on the U.N.’s own normative values” and “sharing and transferring international principles and values, standards and know-how.”

The window for completing the goals, initially set from 2017 to 2021, was extended to 2024, but in 2023, the U.N. and Korth Korea agreed to extend it to 2025, according to a letter the two signed.

VOA asked North Korea’s U.N. Mission in New York when Pyongyang plans to allow international aid workers back but did not receive a reply.

Possible reasons

Jerome Sauvage, former U.N. resident coordinator for North Korea, said Pyongyang may not be ready to admit international aid workers back into the country.

“Humanitarian aid workers in the country require an expensive infrastructure from the North Korean side,” such as setting up officers and security, said Sauvage. “This apparatus was dismantled in 2020” with staff reassigned and units dismantled and “is not easy for DPRK to rebuild.”

“DPRK has never enjoyed the presence of humanitarian aid workers,” Sauvage added, saying, North Korean leader “Kim Jong Un called humanitarian aid a ‘poison pill.'”

Bradley Babson, a former World Bank adviser and current advisory council member of the Korea Economic Institute of America, said North Korea “does not want to be seen as weak and needing aid.”

“Economic engagement as opposed to humanitarian engagement might be more productive if there was a way to create a space for more normal economic interactions,” Babson continued. “The Trump administration might want to use an economic rather than a humanitarian rationale for opening up a different kind of conversation.”

Diplomats returning

Following the reopening of North Korean borders in 2023, China, Russia, Mongolia and Cuba resumed their missions in Pyongyang.

In September, North Korea reinstated Swedish diplomats to resume their activities in Pyongyang, with Sweden becoming the first Western country to reopen its mission since 2020.

Last week, the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) told VOA Korean Service that its ambassador in Beijing formally assumed his post for North Korea.

Poland sent its diplomats to Pyongyang in November to restore its mission, and Nigeria said in December it is preparing to reopen its embassy in Pyongyang.

Soyoung Ahn contributed to this report. 
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WASHINGTON — A recent crackdown on online scam operations, launched earlier this year, has left more than 7,000 people from various countries stranded in a Myanmar border town awaiting repatriation.

The operation, coordinated by Thailand, Myanmar and China, began after Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s visit to Beijing in February, where she assured Chinese leader Xi Jinping that Thailand would take action against scam syndicates.

While China’s pressure has accelerated the repatriation of Chinese nationals, critics argue that its primary focus is protecting its own citizens rather than dismantling the entire criminal network.

In an exclusive interview with VOA, lawmaker Rangsiman Rome, who chairs the Thai House Committee on National Security and is deputy leader of the opposition People’s Party, casts doubt on the effectiveness of the crackdown, calling it more symbolic than structural.

Rome said that without deeper reforms, intelligence-sharing, and global cooperation, these syndicates will continue adapting and operating in different locations, making the current efforts a short-term fix rather than a lasting solution.

While thousands have been rescued during the ongoing crackdown, the United Nations has previously estimated that more than 200,000 have been forced to work in scam centers.

The following interview has been edited for length and clarity.

VOA: In your opinion, what should Thailand do differently to make the crackdown more effective and ensure these operations are truly dismantled?

Rangsiman Rome: I think this crackdown is just for show. It’s not really solving the problem. We have found evidence that construction is still ongoing in some areas, particularly in Shwe Kokko, where scam compounds continue to expand. It seems like the authorities are only making small, visible efforts to create the impression that they are addressing the issue. In reality, the scale of these crackdowns is very limited, and no significant progress has been made in truly dismantling these networks

Once public attention fades, I believe these scam operations will resume as before, because the root causes have not been addressed. Without continued pressure, the same criminal networks will simply rebuild and operate as they did before.

VOA: How much pressure is China putting on Thailand, and is that pressure actually leading to real changes in the crackdown on scam networks?

Rangsiman Rome: I believe China plays a crucial role in this situation. With the Chinese government’s initiative, Thailand has aligned with China on the shared goal of stopping border crimes. While I understand that China is acting to protect its own interests, Thailand must also prioritize its own national security and stability.

The cooperation between Thailand and China has led to progress, particularly in repatriating Chinese nationals from Myawaddy back to China. However, this is not enough. China has largely achieved its goal by bringing its citizens home, but Thailand’s objective goes beyond that — we need to ensure that these scam operations do not return.

To truly dismantle these networks, we must identify and target the key figures behind them. These may include Chinese nationals, Thai mafia, corrupt officials or other powerful individuals involved in sustaining these operations. Thailand must continue its crackdown and expand its focus beyond Myawaddy. We should also pay attention to Cambodia, where large-scale scam operations continue to thrive. Stopping these networks requires ongoing efforts and regional cooperation to prevent them from simply relocating and rebuilding elsewhere.

VOA: How can Thailand and the international community work together to prevent these networks from simply shifting locations and continuing their operations elsewhere?

Rangsiman Rome: The scam crisis is not just Thailand’s problem — it is an international issue that affects people worldwide. Many victims not only lose large sums of money, but also face severe human rights abuses, including forced labor and even organ trafficking. This is a serious criminal enterprise that requires global action.

I see Thailand as a key partner in a global initiative to dismantle scam networks. Thailand has the potential to take the lead in the region to combat these crimes, but we cannot do this alone.

We need support from multiple countries, not just China. We must work closely with Japan, the U.K., the EU and others to share intelligence and track the financial assets of these organized crime syndicates. Many victims are waiting to recover their lost money, and we must locate the hidden assets of Chinese mafia groups and other criminals. It is essential to ensure that no country provides a safe haven for these syndicates — they must be held accountable for their human rights violations.

There is still much work to be done, and Thailand cannot fight this alone. If we work together with international partners, Thailand can take the lead in the region, but we need global cooperation to bring real change.

VOA: Right now, many people are facing difficulties with the repatriation process which involves multiple countries. As a result, some are stuck in Myawaddy or experiencing delays in immigration procedures. How do you think this problem can be resolved to ensure a smoother and faster repatriation process for those affected?

Rangsiman Rome: First and foremost, many countries need to work together to rescue more victims. Based on what I’ve heard, over 7,000 people are currently trapped in Myawaddy, and they need urgent assistance. They should not be left there any longer.

In Thailand, we have a system called NIM, which helps us separate victims from those actively involved in scam operations. It is important to conduct thorough interviews and gather detailed information to identify key figures — the individuals running and operating these scam compounds. By doing this, we can target the leaders behind these crimes and, hopefully, bring them to justice in the future. Our goal is to ensure that these criminal operations do not return.

However, Thailand cannot handle this problem alone. It is extremely difficult for us to combat these syndicates without international support. We need cooperation from many countries, including nations in Africa where some victims originate. By working together, we can respond more quickly, gather information more effectively, and provide translators who can communicate with victims in their native languages. This level of coordination is essential to fully dismantle these networks and ensure that they do not return in the future.
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UNITED NATIONS — Women’s rights regressed last year in a quarter of countries around the world, according to a report published by UN Women on Thursday, due to factors ranging from climate change to democratic backsliding.

“The weakening of democratic institutions has gone hand in hand with backlash on gender equality,” the report said, adding that “anti-rights actors are actively undermining long-standing consensus on key women’s rights issues.”

“Almost one-quarter of countries reported that backlash on gender equality is hampering implementation of the Beijing Platform for Action,” the report continued, referring to the document from the 1995 World Conference on Women.

In the 30 years since the conference, the U.N. said that progress has been mixed.

In parliaments around the world, female representation has more than doubled since 1995, but men still comprise about three-quarters of parliamentarians.

The number of women with social protection benefits increased by a third between 2010 and 2023, though 2 billion women and girls still live in places without such protections.

Gender employment gaps “have stagnated for decades.” Sixty-three percent of women between the ages of 25 and 54 have paid employment, compared to 92% of men in the same demographic.

The report cites the COVID-19 pandemic, global conflicts, climate change and emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), as all new potential threats to gender equality.

Data presented by the UN Women report found that conflict-related sexual violence has spiked 50% in the past 10 years, with 95% of victims being children or young women.

In 2023, 612 million women lived within 50 kilometers of armed conflict, a 54% increase since 2010.

And in 12 countries in Europe and Central Asia, at least 53% of women have experienced one or more forms of gender-based violence online.

“Globally, violence against women and girls persists at alarming rates. Across their lifetime, around one in three women are subjected to physical or sexual violence by an intimate partner or sexual violence by a non-partner,” the report said.

The report sets out a multi-part roadmap to address gender inequality, such as fostering equitable access to new technologies like AI, measures toward climate justice, investments to combat poverty, increasing participation in public affairs and fighting against gendered violence.
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China on Wednesday set its economic growth target at 5%. That figure is unchanged from last year, despite mounting economic challenges, including escalating trade tensions with the United States. More from VOA’s Bill Gallo in Seoul.
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U.S. President Donald Trump signed an “America First” investment policy memorandum last week, pledging to “use all necessary legal instruments” to restrict China-affiliated investors from strategic sectors in the U.S.

The news has sparked concern among Chinese companies listed in the U.S., who could face a potential new round of auditing standards review, and those who want to come to the U.S. market.

Click here for the full story in Mandarin.

 
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TOKYO — Firefighters were Tuesday battling Japan’s worst wildfire in half a century, which has left one dead and forced the evacuation of nearly 4,000 local residents.

White smoke billowed from a forested area around the northern city of Ofunato, aerial TV footage showed, five days after the blaze began after record-low rainfall.

The fire also follows Japan’s hottest summer on record last year, as climate change pushes up temperatures worldwide.

As of Tuesday morning, the wildfire had engulfed around 2,600 hectares, the fire and disaster management agency said — over seven times the area of New York’s Central Park.

That makes it Japan’s largest wildfire since 1975 when 2,700 hectares burnt in Kushiro on northern Hokkaido island.

It is estimated to have damaged at least 80 buildings by Sunday, although details were still being assessed, the agency said.

Military and fire department helicopters are trying to douse the Ofunato fire, a city official told reporters.

“At the moment, there is no indication that the fire is under control,” the official said.

Snow is expected overnight, changing to rain, but the official said he could not say whether it would help extinguish the blaze.

“The poor weather may prevent helicopters from dropping water,” he warned.

Around 2,000 firefighters — most deployed from other parts of the country, including Tokyo — are working from the air and ground in the area in Iwate region, which was hard-hit by a deadly tsunami in 2011.

An evacuation advisory has been issued to around 4,600 people, of whom 3,939 have left their homes to seek shelter, according to the municipality.

The number of wildfires in Japan has declined since its 1970s peak, but the country saw about 1,300 in 2023, concentrated in February to April when the air dries and winds pick up.

‘No rain’

Ofunato had just 2.5 millimeters of rainfall in February — breaking the previous record-low for the month, of 4.4 millimeters in 1967, and below the usual average of 41 millimeters.

Since Friday, “there has been no rain — or very little, if any” in Ofunato, a local weather agency official told AFP.

Some types of extreme weather have a well-established link with climate change, such as heatwaves or heavy rainfall.

Other phenomena like droughts, snowstorms, tropical storms and forest fires can result from a combination of complex factors.

Some companies have been affected by the wildfire, such as Taiheiyo Cement, which told AFP its Ofunato plant has suspended operations for several days because part of its premises is in the evacuation advisory zone.

Ofunato-based confectionery company Saitoseika warned that “if our headquarters or plants become a no-go zone, we may need to halt production,” describing the situation as “tense.”

Japanese baseball prodigy Roki Sasaki, who recently joined the Los Angeles Dodgers in the U.S., has offered a $67,000 donation and 500 sets of bedding, Ofunato city’s official account posted on X.

Sasaki was a high school student there, after losing his father and grandparents in the huge 2011 tsunami.
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TOKYO — Japan is fighting a forest fire that has damaged dozens of homes and forced hundreds of residents to evacuate in a northeastern coastal city.

The fire has burned about 2,100 hectares (5,190 acres) of forest in Ofunato since it started Wednesday, according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency.

The agency said at least 84 homes have been damaged, and over 1,200 people evacuated. The fire has subsided in some areas. More than 2,000 troops and firefighters have been deployed from across the country.

A man was found dead on a road Thursday, and authorities are examining if the death was linked to the fire, the agency said.

The northeastern regions, including Ofunato, have had their driest winter since 1946, when the Japan Meteorological Agency started collecting data.
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TAIPEI, TAIWAN — China kicks off its biggest political meetings of the year this week as additional tariffs from the United States loom and the leadership in Beijing looks to address what Chinese President Xi Jinping has called “complex and multifaceted” economic challenges.

Starting on Tuesday, thousands of Chinese elites and lawmakers will begin gathering in the Chinese capital for the “Two Sessions,” or “lianghui,” which will set and discuss a wide range of policy agendas for 2025.

A gathering of a broad swath of representatives, from business and academia to those inside the government and the party, called the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, meet on Tuesday. The day after that, China’s rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress, or NPC, will begin its annual legislative session.

Premier Li Qiang will deliver the highly anticipated government work report at the opening meeting of the NPC, outlining the Chinese government’s economic growth target for 2025 and other key economic policies.

This year’s meetings come amid a sluggish economy, weak domestic demand, low investor and consumer confidence, a lingering property sector crisis and a looming trade war with the United States. The additional 10% tariff that the U.S. government has threatened to impose on all Chinese imports is set to take effect on Tuesday.

Faced with a slew of domestic and external challenges, analysts say this year’s NPC will be an important occasion for the Chinese leadership to project “political unity” and demonstrate that “China is on the right track to greatness under the leadership of Xi Jinping.”

“For Beijing, strong leadership from the Chinese Communist Party and strengthening China’s economic and technological resilience against external shocks are more necessary than ever – and the only way to ensure China’s long-term rise,” said Nis Grunberg, an expert of Chinese politics at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, or Merics, in Germany.

In an article published in the Chinese Communist Party’s magazine Qiushi on Saturday, President Xi Jinping said some top priorities for economic work, which he characterized as “complex and multifaceted,” include facilitating an efficient relationship between the market and the government, ensuring a balance between supply and demand, optimizing the allocation of resources and balancing quality and scale in development.

As the Chinese economy continues to face “difficulties and challenges,” some experts say Beijing’s 2025 official growth target will be “around 5%,” matching the GDP increase in 2024. 

The 5% target “reflects a tacit acknowledgement of economic headwinds but signals continuity and stability,” said Lizzi Lee, a fellow on Chinese economy at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Since all Chinese products exported to the U.S. could face a 20% tariff starting Tuesday, Lee said the Chinese government will focus on rolling out policies to boost domestic demand and consumption.

“We are likely to see stronger policy efforts to revitalize spending beyond just trade-in subsidies for cars, home appliances and digital products,” she told VOA in a written response. She added that Chinese policymakers are likely to pour resources into live-stream commerce and that the “silver economy” – goods and services for the elderly – will be areas that Chinese policymakers will likely pour resources into.

Additionally, Lee thinks China may also raise the fiscal deficit, set up state-backed investment funds to support strategic industries, and roll out policies to “push banks to support struggling local economies.”

Tech innovation and the private sector

In addition to boosting domestic demand and consumption, the Chinese government is looking to expand high-tech manufacturing and drive innovation by boosting private sector sentiment and encouraging leading tech giants to expand both domestic and international operations.

During a symposium with leaders from several Chinese tech giants on Feb. 17, Xi “urged efforts to promote the healthy and high-quality development of the country’s private sector.” He also vowed to dismantle obstacles that prevent private companies from “competing in the market fairly.”

Those remarks stood in sharp contrast to a series of crackdowns that the Chinese government has initiated against tech giants such as Alibaba, Tencent and Ant Group since 2020.

Some analysts say Beijing may reinforce state-led support for companies working on artificial intelligence or semiconductors, while ensuring these private companies are aligned with the national priorities to help China remain strong in the ongoing competition with the U.S., including in several high-tech sectors.

“The private sector has an important role to play, but always under the guidance of the party,” Antonia Hmaidi, a senior analyst at Merics, said during a webinar on Feb. 27.

While “AI is a fundamental priority for party and state, a comprehensive law is unlikely to emerge at the Two Sessions as the party-state grapples with using AI for development while ensuring its safe use,” she added.

Tariffs countermeasures

On the foreign policy front, the international community will be closely watching how China decides to counter the tariffs that the U.S. government has vowed to impose on Chinese imports.

Lee at ASPI said the Chinese government may double down on supply chain resilience, diversifying export markets and strengthening its domestic tech ecosystem.

“I expect policies that emphasize boosting domestic demand to offset trade risks, increasing fiscal support for industrial upgrading and further deepening economic ties with ASEAN, the Middle East and the Global South,” she told VOA.

On Monday, Chinese state-run tabloid Global Times reported that the Chinese government is “studying and formulating” countermeasures against the U.S. tariffs, including potentially targeting U.S. agriculture and food products with tariff and non-tariff measures.

In light of the changes in foreign policy that the U.S. has implemented since President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, Wen-ti Sung, a Taipei-based political scientist for the Australian National University, said China will try to “project an image of continuity and certainty” in terms of foreign policy during the Two Sessions.

“It used to seem like China was the revisionist power in the international system, but as the U.S. changes the rules of the game that it set up, China will try to repackage itself as the pro-status quo power,” he told VOA by phone.
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TOKYO — Nearly 1,700 firefighters are battling Japan’s biggest forest fire in three decades, officials said Monday, as some 4,600 residents remain under an evacuation advisory.

One person died last week in the blaze in the northern region of Iwate, which follows record low rainfall in the area and last year’s hottest summer on record across Japan.

The fire near the city of Ofunato has burned through some 2,100 hectares since Thursday, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency said Monday.

Firefighters from 14 Japanese regions, including units from Tokyo, were now tackling the blaze, with 16 helicopters — including from the military — trying to douse the flames.

It is estimated to have damaged 84 buildings by Sunday, although details were still being assessed, the agency said.

Around 2,000 people have left the area to stay with friends or relatives, while more than 1,200 evacuated to shelters, according to officials.

Early morning footage from Ofunato on national broadcaster NHK showed orange flames close to buildings and white smoke billowing into the air.

The number of wildfires in Japan has declined since the peak in the 1970s, according to government data.

But there were about 1,300 across the country in 2023, concentrated in the February to April period when the air dries and winds pick up.

Ofunato saw just 2.5 millimeters of rainfall in February, breaking the previous record low for the month of 4.4 millimeters in 1967 and below the usual average of 41 millimeters.
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NEW DELHI — China is in the midst of a sweeping anti-corruption campaign that has seen a growing number of high-ranking military officials removed from their posts. The campaign has been so expansive that when China hosts the Two Sessions next week – Beijing’s biggest political event of the year – more than a dozen military officials will not be able to attend.

In late February, just days before the Two Sessions begin on March 4, authorities in China announced that Tan Ruisong, former chairman of the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China, or AVIC, was the latest target of the government’s anti-corruption campaign. AVIC is a major defense contractor and aircraft manufacturer that is on Fortune’s Global 500 list. The anti-graft watchdog, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), said Tan took huge bribes and “lived off the military sector.”

There has been no public response from Tan or AVIC.

Analysts say the purges are part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s efforts to ensure personal loyalty towards himself within the rank and file of the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, and less about corruption. More than 14 senior officials have been punished in the past two years.

There have been several reports that China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun, a naval officer, may have been put under investigation, although the Foreign Ministry previously denied that was the case late last year. Analysts say they will be watching closely to see if Dong attends the Two Sessions meetings next week.

China’s leader has also fired General Li Yuchao, the head of the PLA’s Rocket Force unit — which is responsible for the country’s rocket and missile systems — as well as his deputy. Those sacked are part of the ongoing second wave of disciplinary actions that have included four generals, eight lieutenant generals and two major generals. At least three more aerospace defense executives have been expelled from China’s top political advisory body.

In his remarks to senior military leaders last June, Xi was clear about the intention of the crackdown.

“We must uphold the party’s absolute leadership over the military,” he said, adding that “the gun barrel must always be grasped by people who are loyal and reliable to the party.”

Xi’s remarks echoed a phrase that Communist Party’s founder Mao Zedong coined, “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.”

Some see the ongoing anti-corruption campaign as a sign of political struggle within the party.

“Purges are likely a manifestation of growing challenges against Xi by other party leaders. Those military leaders suspected to be less loyal to Xi are likely to be subjected to pre-emptive removal,” Yoichiro Sato, a professor at the College of Asia Pacific Studies in Japan’s Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, told VOA.

“Corruption in the military is nothing new. Corruption charges are a tool of Xi for going after potential challengers to his rule,” he said.

The anti-corruption drive is also causing a good amount of political confusion because the targets include those regarded to be close to Xi. They included Miao Hua, who held one of China’s most powerful positions as a member of the Central Military Commission and was head of its Political Work Department.

Two consecutive ministers of defense, Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, also were removed and punished in 2023. Li was removed while in office, and Wei after he had stepped down.

Wei served as China’s Defense Minister from March 2018 to March 2023. Before that, he was the commander of the PLA Rocket Force.

Miao’s suspension showed that the drive had expanded to the Political Work Department, which acts as the Communist Party’s eyes and ears within the military force. Previously, the anti-corruption campaign concentrated on military departments involved in defense procurement like the Rocket Force unit and the Equipment Development Department, which are regarded as hotbeds of corruption.

Analysts say the purges may further strengthen Xi’s position, but they may have negative implications for China as well. They would not just affect the military’s morale but could also hamper its ability to fulfil the party’s plans to take over Taiwan.

“If Xi cannot be sure that the PLA would be able to prevail in the case of a conflict, he is less likely to take on the risks that an operation against Taiwan or in the South China Sea, for example, would entail,” said Helena Legarda, lead analyst at the Berlin-based Mercator Institute of China Studies. “In the short run, and at least while this second anti-corruption drive takes place, Beijing’s appetite for initiating an open conflict might be reduced.”

Rocket Force hit hard

Xi has himself raised questions about the PLA’s ability to accomplish essential functions of a modern mission command and accused it of suffering from “peace disease,” said Roy Kamphausen, senior fellow for Chinese security at the Washington-based National Bureau of Asian Research.

“The decade-long campaign against corruption in the PLA has had a negative impact on morale and thus ability to accomplish its missions, despite technological advances,” Kamphausen told VOA. “All of this suggests that whatever inclination Xi might have to take Taiwan by force is reduced,” he said.

The Rocket Force – which would play a critical role in a potential Taiwan conflict – has been hit hard by anti-corruption purges, Mohan Malik, a non-resident fellow at the Washington-based Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, told VOA.

“Morale and capability suffer when leaders skim off the top or push subpar gear. This suggests the PLA may be less effective than it appears on paper, even as China fields advanced missiles, stealth fighters, and an expanding navy,” he said.

Xi cannot permit dissenting generals to continue in crucial positions because of the evolving international situation and the potential for a future global conflict, said Evan Ellis, a Latin America research professor at the U.S. Army War College.

“Xi is conscious that he will have to call on the PLA in a global war with the U.S. in the not distant future. It is vital that he eliminate any risk of dissent or challenge to his political authority on the military,” Ellis told VOA. 
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WASHINGTON — On the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine earlier this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow in a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Chinese state media.

“China-Russia relations have strong internal driving force and unique strategic value,” Xi said, according to the official readout from state media. He also called Russia a “true friend” and a “good neighbor.”

The sentiment is not new. Moscow and Beijing have long touted the strength and long-term nature of their relationship.

But according to a new report from Filter Labs, a U.S.-based political research and analysis company, Russia and China’s relationship may be weaker than they want the rest of the world to believe.

“Their partnership is vulnerable,” Filter Labs founder Jonathan Teubner told VOA. “This ‘no limits’ partnership is much more complicated.”

‘Infused with doubt’

While the governments and state-run media from both countries work to project the image of a strong partnership, their relationship may be underpinned by more tension, mistrust and competing interests than previously thought, according to an extensive analysis of news media and social media posts by Filter Labs.

“The axis is infused with doubt, ripe for disruption,” the report said.

Teubner added, “The monolith theory of the China-Russia relationship isn’t necessarily the way it has to be.”

But not all experts agree that the Russia-China relationship is fragile.

“The China-Russia relationship continues to deepen and widen, and occasional disagreements are dwarfed by the scale and momentum of their strategic cooperation,” Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine wrote in a 2024 Council on Foreign Relations report.

From the Chinese perspective, according to the Filter Labs report, there are doubts over the true resilience of Russia’s economy, whether Russia’s military is as strong as it says it is, and what Russia’s true intentions are in the long term.

Meanwhile, says Filter Labs, Russian doubts pertain to quality concerns about Chinese goods, how militarily committed China actually is to Russia, and whether Chinese investment in Russia is really that substantial.

Chinese state media is generally positive about the state of the Russian economy and often criticizes Western sanctions.

However, Chinese netizens are increasingly worried about the impact that secondary sanctions could have on China.

The United States has threatened to use secondary sanctions against Chinese businesses viewed as engaging with Russia, pushing some Chinese netizens to weigh the value of China’s relationship with Russia against its ability to trade with the United States.

Once those sanctions are enforced on China, Teubner predicts, it will lead to changes in the Russia-China relationship.

“The sanctions on Russia actually have a pretty important countering Chinese effect, too,” said Teubner, who thinks the sanctions are the biggest source of friction between Beijing and Moscow.

Quality concerns

Meanwhile, the most common doubt among Russians about China pertains to quality concerns about Chinese goods, according to the report. In Russia, Chinese goods have a reputation for being affordable but of poor quality.

“We see more persistent complaints about Chinese goods,” Teubner said.

“That’s paired with Russian anxiety over pairing itself so deeply to China,” Teubner added. “That comes through very strongly in Russian anxieties toward being subordinated to the Chinese economy.”

One consequence of Russia’s war in Ukraine has been that it has pushed Russia and China closer together, prompting some governments to default to treating the autocratic duo as a bloc, according to Teubner.

“It will increasingly be that way unless we do something to keep them apart,” Teubner said.

The report recommends that the United States and its allies and partners take advantage of the fault lines to drive a wedge between Russia and China.
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