Britain to Almost Double Troops in Afghanistan after US Request

The British government is planning to almost double the number of its troops in Afghanistan after a request from U.S. President Donald Trump for reinforcements to help tackle the fragile security situation there.

Prime Minister Theresa May announced the government will send an extra 440 troops, which would bring Britain’s total to about 1,100, to help Afghan troops fighting Taliban and Islamic State insurgents.

The extra troops will be taking part in a NATO-led training mission, called Resolute Support, to train and assist Afghan forces. They will be based in Kabul and will not be in a combat role. British troops ended combat operations in 2014.

The announcement comes the day before a NATO summit in Belgium that could turn contentious over Trump’s insistence that allies pay more for their defense.

Trump, who announced the United States would send thousands more troops to Afghanistan last year, has asked Britain and other NATO countries to send more reinforcements to the country.

“In committing additional troops to the Train Advise Assist operation in Afghanistan, we have underlined once again that when NATO calls the U.K. is among the first to answer,” May said. “NATO is as vital today as it ever has been and our commitment to it remains steadfast. The Alliance can rely on the U.K. to lead by example.”

The increase in British troops comes ahead of parliamentary elections in Afghanistan in October, which are seen as a crucial test for democracy in a country at war for four decades.

The extra British troops will initially come from the Welsh Guards, with around half arriving in August and the rest in February next year.

Hundreds of civilians have been killed and wounded in attacks in Kabul this year. At least 57 people were killed when a suicide bomber blew himself up outside a voter registration booth in April and about 100 people were killed in January by a bomb in an ambulance.

Thousands more U.S. troops have been sent to Afghanistan to help train the army, and commanders have been given greater authority to carry out airstrikes against the militants in a major reversal of the previous policy of phased withdrawal of American forces. But almost 17 years since the United States tried to topple Afghanistan’s Taliban, who had harbored al-Qaida militants behind attacks on New York and Washington, the West remains entangled in an effort to stabilize the country.

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Bosnia Region Expands Veterans’ Rights, Defying IMF

Bosnia’s autonomous Bosniak-Croat Federation approved a new law granting wider benefits to war veterans, in a pre-election sweetener that defied warnings by the International Monetary Fund that it may jeopardize long-term fiscal stability.

In an urgent session called amid a protest staged by several hundred veterans of the 1992-95 Bosnian War, deputies in the 98-seat parliament approved the new legislation with 58 voting in favor.

The measure ignores advice by the IMF, which postponed a final meeting last month to review Bosnia’s loan program that would have unlocked fresh aid, because of new spending measures by its two autonomous regions.

The lender has said a new mission will have to visit Bosnia to look at the effects of the legislation, which puts at risk the completion of the review of Bosnia’s 553 million-euro ($647.01 million) loan program.

The IMF said the law on benefits for veterans was flawed, because the number of beneficiaries and the cost of the benefits had not been worked out. 

Bosnia is made up of two autonomous ethnic regions, the Bosniak-Croat Federation and the Serb Republic, and most IMF funds go directly to the regional authorities.

The lender has said the Serb Republic violated terms agreed under its loan deal after its parliament last week approved a bill raising public sector wages by up to 12.5 percent.

The laws in both regions are seen as sweeteners ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections in October.

In February, the IMF disbursed a 74.6 million-euro tranche to Bosnia after its aid program was unblocked following an 18-month halt over delays to reform.

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Leaders Urge Global Support for Women, Girls in Africa’s Sahel

Several high-level women are calling for more international support focused on helping women and girls in Africa’s Sahel region respond to the impact of conflict, terrorism and underdevelopment.

The foreign minister of Sweden, the U.N. deputy secretary-general, and the African Union’s special envoy on women, peace and security just wrapped up a joint visit to Niger and Chad where they met with women from all areas of society.

“The countries we visited and the Sahel region are located between hope and despair,” Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallström told a special meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday. “Hope, because the Sahel is blessed with abundant human, cultural and natural resources. … Despair, because of chronic underdevelopment, terrorism and violent extremism, a lack of respect for human rights and the negative effects of climate change.”

The delegation said women and girls in the Sahel disproportionately suffer the consequences of these negative factors, as well as harmful cultural practices such as early marriage.

Mitigating terrorism’s toll

One of the biggest obstacles to development is the battle against Islamist radical groups such as Boko Haram.

“The response to security challenges faced by the regions that we have just visited requires investment in the development of the individual human being to prevent the radicalization and violent extremism, which has become the scourge of the Sahel,” said AU envoy Bineta Diop. 

But limited resources often mean the military’s needs take precedence over the people’s.

“Security comes at a price,” said U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed. “Too often, it comes at the expense of development.”

Diop urged the international community to step up assistance.

“Everything hinges on prevention — which can be achieved through sizable investment in education, management of natural resources such as water, in job creation, in the protection of women and young girls, and in the promotion of the role and leadership of women and young girls in the quest for peace,” the AU envoy said.

While women are often victims of terrorist acts, they are also increasingly being exploited to carry them out.

“The increased use of female suicide bombers — two-thirds of suicide attacks in 2017 were carried out by women or girls — illustrates the cruel way in which terrorists seek to exploit the perceived ‘goodness’ of women to maximize harm,” Wallström said.

From victims to leaders

“We heard a universal and increasingly frustrated call by women for greater inclusion, representation and participation in all areas of society,” the U.N.’s Mohammed said.

“And we were encouraged to see that in both countries, women were coming together in networks to address the challenges they face,” the Swedish foreign minister added.

They underscored the message that women are no longer just victims, but with the right support can also be effective agents of change.

“They are intelligent and smart, and have initiatives they wish to share to respond to the challenges they are faced with,” Diop said. 

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Iran Drops Effort to Set Single Exchange Rate as Rial Sags

Iran formally opened a secondary market for hard currency Tuesday, abandoning after three months an effort to dictate a single exchange rate for the rial against the dollar as the threat of U.S. sanctions pressures the Iranian currency.

The new market will cater to small exporters and importers from the private sector, the Tasnim and Fars news agencies reported. Fars said the first transaction exchanged rials for United Arab Emirates dirhams, at a rate equivalent to 75,000 rials to the U.S. dollar.

A central bank official said the secondary market would allow exchange rates to fluctuate freely.

“The price of the foreign currency will be set based on supply and demand,” Mehdi Kasraeipour, the central bank’s director of foreign exchange rules and policies, was quoted as saying on Monday by the IRNA state news agency.

Authorities had announced in early April they were unifying official and free-market rates for the rial in favor of a single rate set by the central bank, and warned that those caught trading the dollar at other rates would face arrest.

The move aimed to halt a plunge in the rial to record lows against the dollar that was fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from world powers’ 2015 deal with Iran on its nuclear program.

Sanctions coming back

Some U.S. sanctions against Iran’s economy are to be reimposed in August and some in November, and the prospect has triggered a panicky flight of ordinary Iranians’ savings into dollars.

The single-rate system failed to stabilize the rial, however, and in late June, the currency sank to record lows of around 90,000 per dollar in black market trade. It was around 80,000 on Tuesday, compared with about 43,000 at the end of 2017.

Worse still, the new system starved importers, other private businesses and Iranians traveling abroad of hard currency, because few holders of dollars were willing to sell at the unattractive central-bank set rate, now 43,010.

Only government agencies and some importers of “priority” goods could obtain dollars at the official rate, prompting complaints by Iranian business leaders and two days of protests by some market traders in Tehran, who shut their shops.

The secondary market was launched Tuesday to ease the hard currency shortage, although Kasraeipour did not elaborate on how it would work or say whether the government might intervene if the rial fell too sharply there.

Tehran has tried twice previously in the past two decades to create a single-exchange rate system for the rial, but both attempts quickly failed because of inadequate dollar supplies, corruption and speculation against the Iranian currency.

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Key Positions Unchanged in New Ivory Coast Government

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara named a new government on Tuesday, but the key positions of finance, defense and agriculture were unchanged, a presidential spokesman said.

Ouattara dissolved the administration last week because of a row between his RDR party and its ruling coalition partner, the PDCI of Henri Konan Bedie, whose support helped the president get elected in 2011 and 2015.

Few of the 36 ministerial jobs were changed in a re-jigging that was largely cosmetic. A handful of extra jobs went to the PDCI and one key post went to an ally of national assembly head Guillaume Soro.

Soro is a former rebel leader who loosely controls armed factions of the military that have staged several mutinies in the past few years.

Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly will retain the finance portfolio, Hamed Bakayoko retains defense and Mamadou Coulibaly Sangafowa remains agriculture minister, said Patrick Achi, secretary general of the presidency.

Foreign investment and a plethora of lucrative cash crops, including 40 percent of the world’s cocoa, have enabled Ivory Coast to become one of Francophone Africa’s most prosperous economies. But political squabbling, which sometimes spills over

into ethnic conflict, periodically threatens its stability.

It was divided for nearly a decade between a government-controlled south and rebel-held north, ending in a short civil war that killed 3,000 people after a disputed poll

in 2010. Many fear that old rivalries over power and land could easily flare up again at the 2020 election.

Government spokesman and Ouattara loyalist Bruno Kone was moved to construction and urbanization minister. His replacement was Claude Isaac, a senior PDCI member. Jean Claude Kouassi, also PDCI, became the new minister of energy and mines – to replace a minister who left in April.

Sidiki Konate, a close Soro aide, was made minister of arts and culture.

The two parties had fallen out over the PDCI’s insistence on a candidate of its choosing in the 2020 election. The party last month spurned the idea of a joint ticket if this condition was not met. It was unclear whether this will resolve the spat.

Several PDCI members, including a party spokesman, did not respond to requests for comment. Julien Kouao, a political analyst in Abidjan, doubted Ouattara’s reshuffle would appease the PDCI.

“This newly formed government could deepen divisions,” Kouao said. “We are far from achieving the political cohesion necessary to resolve this.”

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Sierra Leone Launches Corruption Inquiry Into Former Government

Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio will launch a commission to investigate accusations of widespread corruption under his predecessor Ernest Koroma, the government said.

A report commissioned by Bio and released last week accused Koroma of taking the economy to the brink of collapse — though the former leader’s APC party dismissed it as a witch-hunt.

Koroma, who stepped down in April after two terms in office, was not immediately available for comment but has denied any wrongdoing in the past and has said the report is part of a smear campaign.

Since Bio took over, former Vice President Victor Foh has been charged with embezzling money while former mines minister Mansaray Minkailu has been charged over his role in the sale of a stake in a mining project.

Lawyers for Foh and Mansaray could not be reached for comment.

“The President has directed the Attorney-General and Minister of Justice to immediately lead on the establishment of a judge-led Commission of Inquiry,” said a government statement released late on Monday. Judges will be named “shortly,” it added.

Sierra Leone, recovering from a decade of civil war that ended in 2002, saw its economy hit by a slump in global commodity prices and an Ebola epidemic that peaked in 2014.

The report accused the previous administration of exploiting the Ebola outbreak to award contracts to companies with close ties to APC party officials.

The party dismissed the accusations, saying they were an attempt to distract attention from Bio’s first 100 days in office, which it called a “complete failure.”

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Bulgaria Makes Bank Pledges in Bid to Join Euro Waiting Room

Bulgaria has committed to strengthening its banking sector, European Union officials said Tuesday, two days before a eurozone finance ministers meeting that could shed light on the Balkan country’s progress toward joining the euro.

Bulgaria meets the nominal criteria to adopt the European common currency, with its lev currency pegged to the euro, low inflation and healthy public finances. But it is also the EU’s poorest country, and widespread graft and troubles at some of its banks have cast a shadow over its prospects of joining.

Eurozone states and authorities have demanded that Sofia step up checks at its lenders and accept external oversight before it can join the bloc’s ERM-2 exchange rate mechanism — usually a two-year waiting room that precedes euro membership.

After initial bickering, the Bulgarians have offered some commitments in a letter to the eurozone authorities.

The precise pledges have not been disclosed, but two EU officials, who asked to remain anonymous, judged the letter a positive move and one said it included commitments on the banking sector.

“We have received from the Bulgarian authorities a letter of prior commitments in view of their firm intention to join ERM-2 and the Banking Union,” a spokesman for Mario Centeno, the head of the Eurogroup, said Tuesday.

The Eurogroup includes the finance ministers of the 19 eurozone member states, which are also members of the banking union project meant to enhance the bloc’s financial stability.

Countries that want to join the eurozone are not legally required to be members of the banking union, but EU authorities have demanded this commitment of Bulgaria to extract more guarantees from the country, and to try to set a pattern for other future members.

In this, Bulgaria is “a kind of guinea pig,” an EU official said.

Banking union member countries transfer to EU bodies the powers to oversee their top banks and deal with ailing lenders.

The Bulgarian letter was sent before the meeting of eurozone finance ministers on Thursday in Brussels that will discuss with the European Central Bank and senior Bulgarian financial representatives the next steps for the Balkan country.

EU officials said the outcome was open-ended, but one official said the meeting could set a target date for Bulgaria’s membership in the ERM-2.

The assessment of the country’s commitments could take more than a year, the official said. Only after that could Bulgaria could join the ERM-2.

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Can AU Tackle Security Challenges in the Sahel?

African leaders meeting in Mauritania last week pledged to redouble efforts aimed at curtailing and defeating extremist groups on the continent, especially in the Sahel region.  

The pledge followed a rash of attacks by jihadi terrorist groups in two Sahel countries, including an attack that killed 10 Nigerien soldiers in the country’s southeast and an attack on the headquarters of the regional anti-jihadist G5 Sahel Force in Sevare and two other attacks in Mali. 

But some experts are warning that there is not much the African Union can do to enhance the capabilities of the G5 force that was established last year.

“I can’t think of anything the AU (African Union) could do to help,” says Michael Shurkin, a senior political scientist with the Rand Corporation.  “The militaries from which it is drawn are weak and lack many basic capabilities. Turning them into an effective coalition takes time.”

French anti-terror efforts in the Sahel

On Monday, an al-Qaida branch in Mali, Group to Support Islam and Muslims (Jama’atu Nusrat al-Islam Wa al-Muslimin), claimed responsibility for the recent attacks in Mali, saying it was a message to French president, Emmanuel Macron.

At the time, Macron was heading to Mauritania to discuss fighting terror in the region with leaders of the G5 Force countries on the sidelines of the AU summit held in Nouakchott.

“This exchange will be an opportunity for me to mark my commitment to renew the link between France and the African continent … on issues of security, counter-terrorism and education,” said Macron.

France has about 4,000 troops fighting jihadi groups in the Sahel under the banner of Operation Barkhane. The troops, along with their Malian counterparts, were the targets of Sunday’s suicide attack that killed four civilians and injured many soldiers, including French in Gao, northern Mali.

Alix Boucher, an assistant Research Fellow with the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, says there is more France could do to strengthen the security services of Mali and other G5 members.

But, Boucher says extremist groups in the Sahel could use an increased French military presence in the area for propaganda and recruitment, “by allowing them to claim that regional governments can’t be relied upon to provide security and that French troops are trampling on their sovereignty.”

What the African Union can do

The biggest challenge facing the G5 Sahel now is that of funding and equipment. Many analysts say direct funding of the Force by the Africa union would not be feasible.

 “The African Union funding the mission would only transfer funding challenges to the AU,” says Boucher. 

The chairman of the G5 Sahel Group of Countries, President Mahamadou Issoufou of Niger, said the group will pursue direct funding from the United Nations as a sure way of funding the force.

“We have agreed to continue advocacy to put the G5 Sahel Force under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which will address the issue of long-term funding for the Joint Force,” the Nigerien Press Agency quoted him as saying.

Analysts like Wendy Williams, adjunct research fellow at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, believe that authorities in Sahel countries like Mali need to wake up to their responsibilities of providing services to all of their people, not just to some.

“Not only has the Malian government not provided consistent public services or security to the communities outside the southern part of the country, it has encouraged the creation of local militias to provide protection to communities instead of the military,” she said.

Williams said when the military appears, it tends to treat everyone, including the militia, as if they were part of the militants.  

“This has only had the effect of driving some of militias toward the jihadist groups for training, weapons, and support,” she said.

President Issoufou of Niger agreed with the point that the military force is only a temporary solution in the fight against terrorism.

“We are fighting militarily to beat terrorism, which is a short-term solution, but in the long run the solution is economic and social development, because poverty breeds terrorism,” he told ANP.

For analysts like Shurkin of the Rand Corporation, a better hope for the G5 Sahel Force lies with the French.

“The G5 Sahel Force’s best hope for becoming something effective would be if it is de facto, if not de jure, an auxiliary to the French, however bad that looks,” he said.

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Israel Plans to Land Unmanned Spacecraft on Moon in February

An Israeli nonprofit group plans to land an unmanned spacecraft on the moon in February in the first landing of its kind since 2013.

The craft, which is shaped like a round table with four carbon fiber legs, is set to blast off in December from Florida’s Cape Canaveral aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, said Ido Anteby, chief executive of the SpaceIL nonprofit.

It aims to transmit pictures and videos back to Earth over two days after it lands on Feb. 13, as well as measuring magnetic fields.

“Our spacecraft will be the smallest ever to land on the moon,” said Anteby.

Since 1966, the United States and the former Soviet Union have put around 12 unmanned spacecraft on the moon using braking power to perform “soft” landings and China did so in 2013.

SpaceIL was founded in 2011 by a group of engineers with a budget of about $90 million, and they had to sacrifice size and operational capabilities for more efficient travel.

The craft, unveiled Tuesday at state-owned defense contractor Israel Aerospace Industries, stands about 1.5 meters high and weighs 585 kg (1,290 lb). The spacecraft has four carbon fiber legs and fuel takes up two-thirds of its weight.

At 60,000 km (37,000 miles) above Earth, the spacecraft will deploy. It will orbit Earth in expanding ellipses and, about two months later, cross into the moon’s orbit. It will then slow and carry out a soft landing causing no damage to the craft.

“The landing is the most complicated part. The spot chosen is relatively flat and the spacecraft has eye contact with Earth for communication,” Anteby said. “From the moment the spacecraft reaches the point that it begins the landing, it will handle it totally autonomously.”

SpaceIL is backed mainly by private donors, including U.S. casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and billionaire Morris Kahn who co-founded Amdocs, one of Israel’s biggest high-tech companies.

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US Adds Iran-backed Bahraini Militant Group to Terror List

 Al-Ashtar Brigades, a Bahraini Shi’ite militant organization with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has been identified as a specially designated global terrorist organization by the United States, the U.S. State Department announced Tuesday.

A statement from the State Department said al-Ashtar Brigades earlier this year adopted the IRGC branding and pledged loyalty to Tehran. It accused the group of enhancing Iran’s agenda in the Gulf region and working to overthrow the U.S.-backed government of Bahrain.

“From Africa, Europe, North America, Asia, and the Gulf, Iran is using terrorist proxies to extend its malevolent influence and upend international peace and stability,” said the department’s counterterrorism coordinator Nathan A. Sales.

“Al-Ashtar is yet another in a long line of Iranian sponsored terrorists who kill on behalf of a corrupt regime. Today’s designation serves notice that the United States sees plainly what Iran is trying to do to Bahrain through its proxy, the terrorist group Al-Ashtar,” Sales said.

The Shi’ite Saraya al-Ashtar, or al-Ashtar Brigades, was established in 2013 with the main goal of resisting the monarchy in the small Arab island of Bahrain in the Persian Gulf. It claims to represent the angry voices of the country’s Shi’ite population who, despite being an overwhelming majority, are ruled by the Sunni al-Khalifa clan.

The group is held responsible for about 20 attacks in Bahrain, mostly against police officers and security forces. It also has conducted attacks outside the country, including a March 2014 bombing in the United Arab Emirates that killed two local police officers.

Axis of resistance

In January 2018, the group changed its logo to reflect Iran’s IRGC branding and announced itself as part of “the Axis of Resistance,” a term used by Iran and its proxies across the Middle East that refers to groups opposing the influence of the U.S. and its allies.

The State Department said the organization’s members have received weapons and explosives from Iran and have been trained at IRGC-funded camps in Iraq.

The State Department’s statement added that the group’s leaders have been taking sanctuary in Iran to avoid prosecution by Bahraini authorities.

The designation Tuesday will sanction the group to limit its ability to carry out attacks and prohibit any dealings with it. 

“These designations support a larger campaign to deter Iran’s malign behavior and stop its support for terrorists around the world,” the statement said.

The U.S. government has imposed a series of sanctions against the Iranian regime and its allies in the Middle East and beyond since May when the U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

The U.S. Treasury Department on Monday blacklisted Malaysian sales agent Mahan Travel and Tourism Sdn Bhd for ties with the sanctioned Iranian airline Mahan Air.

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Pompeo to Urge More Pressure on Iran on NATO Sidelines

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Brussels on Tuesday, where he plans meetings on the sidelines of a NATO summit aimed at stepping up

pressure on Iran and reassuring allies about alternative oil supplies, a State Department official said.

Pompeo flew from Abu Dhabi, where he discussed Iran with leaders of the United Arab Emirates. Senior State Department officials have also completed three days of talks on Iran in Saudi Arabia, and “discussed new ways to deprive the regime of revenues,” a State Department official told reporters traveling on Pompeo’s plane.

“In our meeting with the Saudi energy minister, we discussed maintaining a well-stocked oil market to guard against volatility,” he said. “We discussed U.S. oil sanctions to deny Iran revenue to fight against terrorism. We talked about minimizing market disruptions and helping partners find alternatives to Iran oil.”

At NATO, Pompeo will discuss Iran with ministers from Britain, France and Germany, and in other bilateral meetings, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

He said a meeting with political directors of the so-called E-3 countries of France, Germany and Britain, who signed an international agreement on Iran that the Trump administration has withdrawn from, would now be held in Brussels on Wednesday or Thursday. He said it was postponed for a couple of days because of scheduling issues.

​U.S. withdrawal

The United States pulled out of a multinational deal in May to lift sanctions against Iran in return for curbs to its nuclear program. Washington has since told countries they must halt all imports of Iranian oil beginning November 4 or face U.S. financial measures, with no exemptions.

Since Trump’s decision to withdraw from the agreement, European states have been scrambling to ensure Iran gets enough economic benefits to persuade it to maintain the nuclear curbs required in the deal.

But so far it has proven difficult to offset the impact of continued U.S. sanctions, with European firms reluctant to risk far-reaching U.S. financial penalties to do business in Iran.

“No matter how much people write about transatlantic rifts, in the case of Iran we agree on much more than we disagree,” the U.S. official said. “The European nations are as frustrated as we are with Iran’s missile program, the missile attacks that they are facilitating.”

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Trump Pardons Oregon Ranchers Behind 2016 Stand-Off

U.S. President Donald Trump has pardoned two Oregon ranchers whose five-year prison sentences sparked an armed occupation of federal property.

The White House announced Tuesday that Trump has ordered the full pardon of rancher Dwight Lincoln Hammond, Jr. and his son Steven Hammond.  The two were convicted in 2012 of a 2001 arson on a wildlife refuge that abuts their cattle ranch.

A White House stamen said, “The evidence at trial regarding the Hammond’s responsibility for the fire was conflicting.”

Further complicating the matter, the judge who sentenced them in 2012 gave the father, now in his 70s, three months in prison.  The son was given one year in prison, despite a federally mandated five-year minimum sentence for the charges on which they were convicted.

Upon a federal appeal, however, the Hammonds were re-sentenced and returned to prison in 2016, despite having served out their initial sentences.

In response, supporters of the Hammonds staged an occupation of the wildlife refuge from January 2, 2016, to February 11 of that year, saying the federal officials were guilty of overreach.

The occupation ended a few days after the ringleader of the movement was arrested and another man was shot dead in a confrontation with Oregon State Police.

In its statement, the White House said Dwight Hammond, 76, has served about three years in prison now, while his son has served nearly four years.  The statement also said the men have also paid $400,000 to resolve a related civil suit.

“The Hammonds are devoted family men,” the statement said, “respected contributors to their local community, and have widespread support from their neighbors, local law enforcement, and farmers and ranchers across the West.  Justice is overdue for Dwight and Steven Hammond.”

President Trump had hinted before Tuesday’s pardons that he was considering the move on behalf of the Hammonds.

Since taking office, he has provided pardons for a number of high-profile figures.  They include author Dinesh D’Souza, who was convicted of illegal campaign contributions; former Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who was convicted of criminal contempt of court for failing to enforce regulations meant to prevent racial profiling; and Alice Johnson, a grandmother serving a life sentence on drug charges.

Trump provided the pardon for Johnson after reality star Kim Kardashian visited him at the White House to plead Johnson’s case.

 

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Abortion Issue Likely to Dominate Top Court Pick Hearings

If recent history is any indication, the confirmation hearing of Brett Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump’s latest Supreme Court pick, is likely to be dominated by questions about his views of Roe v. Wade.

The landmark 1973 Supreme Court ruling, which held that the U.S. Constitution protects a woman’s right to a have an abortion, stands as one of the high court’s most controversial and divisive decisions of the past century.

While polls show a majority of Americans support legal abortion, Roe v. Wade continues to divide broad swaths of society, pitting advocates, who see the decision as giving women power over their lives, against foes, who view it as an affront to the sanctity of life.

But the fracas over abortion predates Roe v. Wade. According to Peter Charles Hoffer, a historian and author of Roe v. Wade: The Abortion Rights Controversy in American History, the debate goes back to the 1861-65 American Civil War.

With the war wiping out nearly 2 percent of the American population, many doctors and pundits at the time claimed “the white race was in danger of disappearing” and states began to criminalize abortion, according to Hoffer.

The anti-abortion laws survived into the 20th century. And though several states legalized the practice later in the century, aborting a fetus remained a crime in most states prior to Roe v. Wade. That led to a bustling underground industry in often dangerous “back alley” abortions.

​Texas origins

The case that came to be known as Roe v. Wade was brought by Norma McCorvey, a k a Jane Roe, a 23-year-old expectant mother in Texas who could not afford to support a child and did not want to undergo an illegal procedure. She sued Henry Wade, then the Dallas district attorney known for prosecuting abortion doctors. 

The U.S. Supreme Court sided with Roe, ruling that the right to privacy alluded to in the Constitution extended to a woman’s right to have an abortion and that states could not legally ban the procedure.

In his book, Hoffer calls Roe v. Wade “a watershed event in American women’s history.”

“This is an issue that sits right across the divide between liberal, modernist opinions and more conservative, traditional religious opinions,” Hoffer, a professor at the University of Georgia, said in an interview.

Supporters of abortion rights brand themselves as “pro-choice” advocates.To them, Roe v. Wade became a symbol of women’s rights, the power to take control of one’s reproductive life without government interference.

To opponents of abortion, Roe v. Wade is an affront to the sanctity of life, and abortion is the murder of an unborn child.

Yet the political divisions over abortion are not always so cut and dried. There many moderate Republicans who support abortion rights, and many socially conservative Democrats who oppose them.

But since the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan, who won on a wave of support from pro-life Christian evangelicals, abortion has become a decisive issue in American electoral politics, according to Hoffer.

In recent years, Democratic presidential candidates have almost always run on a pro-choice platform, while their Republican opponents have campaigned against abortion.

Trump’s views on abortion have shifted over the years. As a presidential candidate, he promised to appoint conservative, pro-life justices to the Supreme Court to undo Roe v. Wade. But he’s since said he has no litmus test on Roe v. Wade for picking high-court nominees other federal judges.

​Some fear tilt

Nevertheless, with the nomination of Kavanaugh to replace the retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy, who was a swing vote on many social issues, liberals fear the high court is likely to tilt further to the right, threatening to undermine landmark decisions such as Roe v. Wade.

“It’s absolutely at risk of being overturned, and certainly at risk of being hollowed out,” said Marge Baker, executive vice president of People for the American Way, a liberal-leaning advocacy organization.

But Trump allies are downplaying the risk that Roe v. Wade will be overturned.

Leonard Leo, vice president of the conservative Federalist Society who advises Trump on Supreme Court nominations, called the Democratic warnings that the court would overturn Roe v. Wade a “scare tactic.”

“We’ve seen this kind of hysteria for the last 36 years,” Leo told Fox News on July 2. “Every time, they say Roe v. Wade is going to be overturned. Now, what we have after 36 years is one justice on the court — Clarence Thomas — who’s explicitly said he’s going to overturn Roe.”

But abortion rights advocates say there are other things the justices can do to chip away at the decision without overturning it.

“There are lots of ways to hollow out Roe v. Wade,” Baker said. “Short of overturning it, there are ways to make it essentially impossible for women to have access to abortion.”

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US Puts Visa Restrictions on Myanmar, Laos

The U.S. is placing visa restrictions on Myanmar (also known as Burma) and Laos for failing to accept their nationals when the U.S. seeks to deport them.

“Burma and Laos have denied or unreasonably delayed accepting their nationals ordered removed from the United States,” the Department of Homeland Security said in a news release.

The State Department Tuesday ordered consular offices in the two countries to begin visa restrictions on certain categories of visas. They are as follows:

BURMA: Discontinuing “issuance of all B1 (work) and B2 (travel) nonimmigrant visas for current officials at the Director General level and above from the Burmese Ministries of Labor, Immigration, and Population (MOLIP) and Home Affairs (MOHA), and their immediate family members, with limited exceptions.”

LAOS: Discontinuing “issuance of all B1, B2, and B1/B2 nonimmigrant visas for current officials at the Director General level and above from the Lao Ministry of Public Security (MPS) as well as their immediate families; and all A3 and G5 (diplomatic and employees of international organizations) nonimmigrant visas to individuals employed by Lao government officials, with limited exceptions.

The DHS release adds that “without an appropriate response” the sanctions “may be expanded to a wider population.” And they will be continued until DHS determines that “cooperation on removals has improved to an acceptable level.”

Both Myanmar and Laos are on the U.S. recalcitrant country list. The list includes nine countries that refuse to accept citizens deported from the U.S.

Sanctions are a step beyond being placed on the recalcitrant list. DHS says without a travel document to confirm identity and nationality, it cannot complete the deportation process.

“Burma and Laos have not established repeatable processes for issuing travel documents to their nationals ordered removed from the United States,” DHS said. “For this reason, ICE has been required to release Burmese and Lao nationals into the United States, some with serious criminal convictions.

 

 

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Kenya Signs Deal to Return Stolen Wealth From Switzerland

Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Swiss counterpart Alain Berset have signed an agreement aimed at helping Kenya recover illegally acquired assets that were stashed in Swiss banks.

Kenyatta and Berset signed the agreement Monday during the Swiss president’s two-day visit to Kenya.

The agreement, known as the Framework for the Return of Assets from Corruption and Crime in Kenya, or FRACCK, creates a mechanism for Kenya to recover money swindled from state coffers by corrupt individuals and hidden in Switzerland.

The agreement is the latest move in Kenyatta’s campaign against corruption, which he launched in his second term as president.

 

In June, the Kenyan leader announced that all public servants would undergo a compulsory “lifestyle audit” to account for the sources of their income and assets. He said Monday that corruption will not be tolerated.

“Corruption directly threatens Kenya’s future, as it denies our children the education they deserve, it denies Kenyans the public good that their hard work has earned them, and it also degrades the quality of our government as well as erodes investor confidence,” said Kenyatta.

 

In most African countries, where state looting of public coffers is rife, money stolen by powerful elites end up stashed in foreign offshore accounts. According to the U.N. Economic Commission on Africa, capital flight and illicit financial flows cost the continent up to $150 billion per year.

Other African governments with newfound democracies are attempting to recover money stored in foreign accounts. In June this year, the Swiss government repatriated to Nigeria more than $1 billion stashed by former head of state Sani Abacha.

Beret said his country is willing to return assets to Kenya as well.

“We have a history and a policy of freezing and returning stolen assets and we need partners like Kenya in all those two duties. It is also through a partnership that an agreement can be reached on how to return this assets in a way that benefits the people of the country concerned,” he said.

 

Some of the assets targeted by the new framework include money stolen through the Anglo Leasing scandal, a government procurement facilitated corruption scandal in Kenya that was revealed in 2004. Switzerland has blocked financial assets linked to the scandal.

According to Monday’s agreement, the two countries will name a steering committee to implement the deal.

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Trump’s Supreme Court Pick Woos Senators Amid Partisan Storm

One day after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated him for the Supreme Court, federal judge Brett Kavanaugh arrived at the Senate to meet with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and other top Republicans, accompanied by Vice President Mike Pence.

 

“President Trump has made a superb selection,“ McConnell, who represents Kentucky, said ahead of the encounter. “Judge Kavanaugh possesses an impressive resume, an outstanding legal mind, and an exemplary legal temperament.”

 

Kavanaugh, 53, took part in investigations of former President Bill Clinton, helped former President George W. Bush prevail in the 2000 Florida vote recount battle, and served in the Bush administration before Bush nominated him to the federal bench. If confirmed, he would replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, for whom Kavanaugh once served as a clerk.

 

His nomination sparked immediate and furious opposition from many Senate Democrats still bitter over Republicans’ refusal to process former President Barack Obama’s final high court nominee and fearful of the impact an even more rightward-leaning court could have on America’s legal landscape.

 

“President Trump did exactly what he said he would do on the campaign trail [in 2016]: nominate someone who will overturn women’s reproductive rights and strike down health care protections for millions of Americans,” Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said, adding that “civil rights, labor rights, environmental rights, LGBTQ [sexual minority] rights” are at risk.

 

Schumer urged voters to mobilize against Kavanaugh’s nomination.

​“Now is the time for the American people to make their voices heard, loudly, clearly, from one end of this country to the other,” the New York Democrat said.

 

Kavanaugh is one of two dozen jurists Trump listed as potential Supreme Court nominees during the 2016 campaign, a list that generated significant enthusiasm among social conservatives who have long sought to overturn abortion rights in America, among other causes.

 

Whatever Kavanaugh’s leanings may be on hot-button topics, Republicans accused their Democratic colleagues of elevating political considerations over the nominee’s qualifications as a jurist.

 

“We’ll do well to remember that we are evaluating a judge, not debating a candidate for political office,” McConnell said, noting that several Democrats had signaled their opposition to Trump’s pick before the nomination was made public.

 

At the White House late Monday, Trump called Kavanaugh a “brilliant jurist” who has “devoted his life to public service.”

WATCH: Trump nominates Kavanaugh to Supreme Court

Kavanaugh, for his part, said, “I revere the [U.S.] Constitution. … If confirmed by the Senate, I will keep an open mind in every case.”

 

Republicans hold a slim, one-seat Senate majority, and a party-line vote would lead to Kavanaugh’s confirmation by the narrowest of margins.

 

The nominee’s fate may rest with two Republican senators who back abortion rights, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Collins has said she will not vote for a nominee who would overturn the Supreme Court’s landmark 1973 decision, Roe versus Wade, that legalized abortion nationwide.

 

But any Republican defections could be offset by centrist Democrats campaigning for re-election in conservative-leaning states Trump won handily in 2016. Conservative political action groups have already announced media campaigns to pressure them to back Kavanaugh.

 

While many Democratic senators swiftly issued statements rejecting Kavanaugh late Monday, Indiana’s Joe Donnelly was noncommittal, pledging to “carefully review and consider the record and qualifications of Judge Brett Kavanaugh.”

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China Pledges $20 Billion in Loans to Revive Middle East

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday pledged a package of $20 billion in loans, and about $106 million in financial aid, to Middle East nations, as part of what he called an “oil and gas plus” model to revive economic growth in the region.

Beijing has ramped up engagement in the Middle East in recent years as Arab nations play an important role in Xi’s signature Belt and Road foreign policy plan for strong trade routes linking China with central and southeast Asia.

Development was key to resolving many security problems in the Middle East, Xi told a gathering with representatives of 21 Arab nations in the Chinese capital.

“We should treat each other frankly, not fear differences, not avoid problems, and have ample discussion on each aspect of foreign policy and development strategy,” he said.

China would offer aid worth 100 million yuan ($15 million) to Palestine to support economic development, besides providing a further 600 million yuan ($91 million) to Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, he added.

A consortium of banks from China and Arab nations, with a dedicated fund of $3 billion, will also be set up, he said.

It was unclear what the relationship between the bank consortium, financial aid and the overall loan package would be.

The loans will fund a plan of “economic reconstruction” and “industrial revival” that would include cooperation on oil and gas, nuclear and clean energy, Xi said.

He urged “relevant sides” to respect the international consensus in the Israel-Palestine dispute, and called for it to be handled in a just manner, so as to avoid regional disruption.

China, which traditionally played little role in the Middle East conflicts or diplomacy, despite its reliance on the region for energy supplies, has been trying to get more involved in resolving long-standing disputes.

China says it sticks to a policy of “non-interference” when offering financial aid and deals to developing countries, which, coupled with development, can help resolve political, religious and cultural tension.

It applies this pattern of economic support, as well as a strict security regime, to its restive western region of Xinjiang. But rights groups have criticized the approach, saying the clampdown has further stoked, not eased, tension between the Muslim Uighur minority and the ethnic Han majority.

($1=6.6033 Chinese yuan renminbi)

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Trump to Open Trip by Meeting With Nervous NATO Leaders

President Donald Trump’s four-nation European tour has allies fretting over the risk of damage he could do to the decades-old NATO alliance. They’re also worried about his potential embrace of Russia’s Vladimir Putin during a summit in Helsinki.

The trip that begins Tuesday in Brussels will also take Trump to London, where Prime Minister Theresa May’s government is in turmoil over her plans for exiting the European Union.

Trump has been pressing NATO countries to fulfill their goal of spending 2 percent of their gross domestic products on defense by 2024. During his presidential campaign, he suggested he might only come to the defense of NATO nations that fulfilled their obligation. He continues to criticize NATO countries for not paying their fair share.

NATO estimates that 15 members, or just over half, will meet the benchmark by 2024 based on current trends.

“The United States is spending far more on NATO than any other Country. This is not fair, nor is it acceptable,” Trump tweeted Monday, insisting that NATO benefits Europe “far more than it does the U.S.”

“On top of this the European Union has a Trade Surplus of $151 Million with the U.S., with big Trade Barriers on U.S. goods. NO!” he protested.

Trump, who has compared the Brexit vote to leave the EU to his own election, will be making his maiden presidential trip to Britain at a fraught time for May. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis resigned within hours of each other in protest of her plan.

Trump’s visit is expected to attract large protests in London and elsewhere in Britain.

Trump’s weeklong trip to Europe will continue with a stop in Scotland before ending with a sit-down in Helsinki with Putin, whose country the U.S. intelligence community has concluded interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump win.

The meeting will be closely watched to see whether Trump will rebuke or embrace Putin, who has repeatedly denied the allegations of election meddling, in spite of evidence to the contrary.

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UN: 1 in 4 Children Live in Country of Conflict or Disaster

About a quarter of the world’s children — about 535 million — are living in a country affected by conflict or disaster, the head of the U.N. children’s agency said Monday.

Henrietta Fore told a Security Council meeting Monday on children and armed conflict that it is “almost beyond comprehension” that one of every four young people are caught in that situation.

She pointed to children and young people whose lives are being shattered by conflicts, including in Yemen, Mali and South Sudan. She also cited youngsters recruited to fight, killed by a land mine or an attack on their school, and “losing hope not only in their futures, but in the futures of their countries.”

Sweden, which holds the Security Council presidency this month, organized the open meeting on the theme “Protecting Children Today Prevents Conflict Tomorrow” and sponsored a resolution unanimously adopted by the 15 members to strengthen U.N. actions to ensure the care and safety of youngsters.

“We are not doing nearly enough to protect our children,” Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, who presided at the meeting, said, stressing that “350 million children are affected by armed conflict today.”

The resolution states for the first time that children recruited or caught up in armed conflict should be treated primarily as victims, he said.

It urges all countries “to consider non-judicial measures as alternatives to prosecution and detention that focus on the rehabilitation and reintegration for children formerly associated with armed forces and armed groups.”

Lofven said the resolution also for the first time makes the point that the needs and vulnerabilities of girls and boys are different and stresses that access for all youngsters to education and physical and mental health care is essential.

It also sets out a framework to reintegrate children associated with armed groups or armed forces into society, which “places children as part of the solution, not part of the problem,” he said.   

U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley told the council that “more than 60 percent of people in conflict-affected countries are under the age of 25.” In countries like Afghanistan, an entire generation has never lived in peace, she said.

She stressed the importance of education as “a way to recover from conflict and prevent it in the future,” warning that children who grow up uneducated, unskilled and resentful “will be prime targets for recruitment by extremists and armed groups.”

Virginia Gamba, the U.N. special representative for children and armed conflict, said she is “profoundly shocked” by the more than 21,000 violations of children’s rights in 2017 recently reported by the U.N., a significant increase from 2016.

“The majority of these despicable acts were perpetrated by armed groups although government forces and unknown armed actors played an important part,” she said. “Each and every one of them led to unspeakable suffering for children, families and entire communities.”

Gamba said the level and severity of the latest violations demonstrate the need for united action “to change the tide of history,” including by focusing on prevention and reintegration “to break cycles of violence” against children.

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Names Revealed of Iranian Women Arrested for Dancing in Videos

New details have emerged about several Iranian women recently arrested in Iran for posting videos of themselves dancing on social media – arrests that have sparked an international social media backlash.

A person familiar with the situation told VOA Persian that about one month ago, authorities arrested Instagram star Maedeh Hojabri and two other young women who posted popular dancing videos.

Hojabri, a 19-year-old from Tehran, had built a large following on Instagram, posting clips of herself dancing at home to popular Western and Iranian music. Some reports said her account had attracted 600,000 followers before being suspended. In recent days, fans have used other Instagram accounts bearing Hojabri’s name to share her video clips. But she has not posted any clips herself since her arrest. 

The source identified the other two women as Elnaz Ghasemi and Shadab, whose last name was not known. Videos of both women have attracted tens of thousands of views on YouTube.

Watch: YouTube video of recently arrested Iranian dancer Elnaz Ghasemi

Watch: YouTube video of recently arrested Iranian dancer Shadab

The source said all three women were released on bail after three days, but also were required to appear on Iranian state TV as part of a public shaming. One of them, Ghasemi, has since left Iran, while Hojabri has been barred from doing so and Shadab’s whereabouts are unknown. 

Aired last week, a state TV program named “Wrong Path” showed images of several young woman whom it said had violated the moral norms of the Islamist-run state.

One of the women, whose face was obscured, answered an interviewer’s questions about why she posted dancing videos on social media. The woman, whom fans identified as Hojabri, said she made the videos for those fans, not intending to encourage them to do to the same.

Rights activists said Hojabri’s appearance in the program represented a forced confession of wrongdoing – a tactic that they say Iran often uses to stifle dissent.

There have been no reports in Iranian state media of the arrest of Hojabri and the other two women or the charges against them.

But the U.S.-based Center for Human Rights in Iran said the head of Tehran’s cyberpolice, Touraj Kazemi, made an announcement coinciding with the broadcast of “Wrong Path” that people who post “indecent” material online would be pursued for crimes against national security.

Since Hojabri’s arrest became apparent from her state TV appearance, Iranian women and men inside and outside the country have led a social media backlash, expressing support for the teenager by sharing videos of themselves dancing and using the hashtag #dancing_isnt_a_crime in Farsi. 

Rights group Amnesty International joined the backlash on Monday, tweeting a video of its female campaigners doing a solidarity dance on a London street. 

Iran’s Islamist laws only forbid women from dancing in public and in front of men who are not close relatives. 

But the growing popularity of social media videos of Iranian woman dancing at home has prompted authorities in Iran to crack down on that phenomenon as well. In recent months, Iranian authorities have vowed to take action against Instagram celebrities they deem to have posted vulgar or obscene videos. 

This report was produced in collaboration with VOA’s Persian Service.

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Trump Nominates Conservative-Leaning Kavanaugh to Supreme Court

In what is likely to be one of the most consequential decisions of his presidency, Donald Trump has selected Brett Kavanaugh as his nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy.

“There is no one in America more qualified for this position, or more deserving,” the president said of Kavanaugh during Monday night’s prime-time television announcement from the White House East Room. He called Kavanaugh a “brilliant jurist” who has “devoted his life to public service.”

Prior to his time as a judge he oversaw an investigation into the death of a deputy counsel for President Bill Clinton. It was ruled a suicide, but conspiracy theorists were not so certain. Kavanaugh also did preliminary work that led to Clinton’s impeachment for an affair with a White House intern. And he worked on the vote recount in the state of Florida that made George W. Bush president. After that he became a staff secretary for Bush, often traveling with the president.

Known as a devout Catholic, Kavanaugh’s position on one of America’s most politically charged issues – abortion – has raised concern on both sides. Those who promote a woman’s right to choose an abortion were upset with a Kavanaugh ruling against an immigrant teenager in federal custody who sought an immediate abortion. But some conservatives expressed dismay that Kavanaugh did not declare that the teen had no constitutional right to an elective abortion.

Earlier, Trump had announced he had narrowed his choice to several contenders, building anticipation for the announcement, which generated criticism.

The executive editor of the Lawfare blog, Susan Hennessey, who is also a Brookings fellow in national security in governance studies, called it “completely bizarre that the president has imposed an artificial, TV ratings-driven deadline on such a consequential choice.”

Others, however, perceived time was of the essence.

With Republicans hoping to confirm a justice before the court resumes its session in October, as well as prior to the upcoming midterm congressional election in November, “Trump did not move too fast in naming a nominee,” says Trevor Burrus, a research fellow at the Cato Institute’s Robert A. Levy Center for Constitutional Studies.

What is almost certain — and those across the political spectrum agree — is that Kavanaugh’s selection will spark a major confirmation battle in the U.S. Senate, where Republicans hold a narrow 51-49 majority and opposition Democrats say they will fight to prevent the high court from swinging further to the right.

A handful of Senate Democrats running for re-election in states that Trump won handily in 2016 could face a difficult vote on the court nominee, potentially providing Republicans with an additional buffer if they decide to support the president.

Kennedy was often a member of five-to-four majority decisions on the high court. Those included a number of high-profile cases, including same-sex marriage and upholding a woman’s right to an abortion.

Kennedy’s departure “leaves the court in a calcified state of a hardened left and right with nobody in that middle position,” says Jonathan Turley, a George Washington University constitutional law professor.

“Most of the time Kennedy swung to the conservative side, especially on questions of the limits of congressional power, the First Amendment, and the Second Amendment,” Burrus, who also is managing editor of the Cato Supreme Court Review, tells VOA.

“He swung to the other side on the question of gay rights and abortion, and those are the particular issues that concern those on the left.”

The Supreme Court, sitting atop one of the three branches of American government, ”has grown in importance over the past few decades,” Burrus said. “This is partially due to the cases it has been asked to decide, such as the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, and it is partially due to the divided nature of American politics.”

Unlike presidents or members of Congress, however, Supreme Court justices in the United States do not have terms – they usually serve until they resign or die, giving presidents who select them a judicial legacy sometimes lasting decades beyond their terms in office.

Kennedy, who is 81, had been nominated for the court by President Ronald Reagan in 1987.

Trump, just days after becoming president in January of last year in a similar televised event, selected the reliably conservative Neil Gorsuch to succeed Antonin Scalia, who had died at the age of 79 in February 2016.

The names of Kavanaugh and Gorsuch were on a list of judicial candidates deemed suitable by the Federalist Society and the Heritage Foundation.

Critics accused Trump of outsourcing his selection to the conservative groups.

“I’ve never seen a president of the United States, in effect, make himself a puppet of outside groups and choose from a group of right-wing fringe ideologues that are prepared on this list,” Senator Richard Blumenthal, a judiciary committee member, said Sunday on an ABC News program.

Burrus says that while “Trump’s method of choosing a justice is not exactly traditional, but it is not that objectionable given the circumstances. As an outsider candidate, people wanted to know who he might put on the Supreme Court, particularly since there was an open seat on the court for the next president to fill, which is rare.

“By publishing a short list, and sticking to traditional conservative justices, he allayed many fears about who he might appoint to the Court. With his second appointment he’s sticking to that general process,” Burrus added.

Jim Malone contributed to this report.

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As Trump Confounds, Mattis Seen as Quiet Champion Among NATO Allies

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis will only play a supporting role to President Donald Trump at this week’s NATO summit — an event that by definition is focused on heads of state from the trans-Atlantic alliance.

But Mattis’ small part belies his high standing among NATO allies, which has only risen as they become increasingly bewildered by Trump’s policies on trade and Iran and anxious about his outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin, European diplomats, officials and experts say.

In recent months, it has become clear that Mattis has a limited ability to influence Trump, who is increasingly confident in his own foreign policy instincts as he settles into his presidency.

But Mattis, by staying above the political fray and avoiding contradicting Trump, has been quietly helping bolster the NATO military alliance over the past 18 months in ways that are too granular to grab much attention in Washington.

“In the Trump administration, he is seen as the most articulate adult in the room,” said one senior European official, who has attended meetings in Europe with Mattis.

The July 11-12 summit is set to enshrine reforms that include creating two new military commands aimed at deterring Russia, one of which the U.S. military has agreed to host.

Mattis, a retired Marine Corps general and former NATO commander, also helped clinch agreement on a plan known as 30-30-30-30. It would require NATO to have 30 land battalions, 30 air fighter squadrons and 30 ships ready to deploy within 30 days of being put on alert.

“There is a real questioning in Europe about the commitment by the President of the United States to the post-war European order” including NATO, said Ivo Daalder, a U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama. “But on the sub-structure, which is the day-to-day business of the alliance … Mattis has led an effort to double down.”

In another example, Mattis has helped oversee a 91 percent increase in Pentagon funding requests for the U.S. military’s European Deterrence Initiative, which was created to help reassure nervous European allies after Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

European allies are increasing their spending on defense, partly because of Trump’s public scolding. Mattis has reinforced that message publicly and privately, to the relief of many European security officials, who long thought their nations’ spending was insufficient.

“The summit should therefore be a moment (for Trump) to take a victory lap,” wrote Derek Collet, a former Pentagon official under Obama’s administration, who is now at the German Marshall Fund. “Instead, for the Europeans, the measure of success at the meeting has been reduced to getting through two days relatively unscathed by a presidential rant or tweetstorm.”

Russia concessions?

Regardless of what happens in Brussels, NATO states will still be anxious about the Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16. NATO allies are wondering if Trump might make security concessions to Moscow to improve ties.

“There are great concerns in the alliance about what agreements Trump and Putin could reach,” Peter Beyer, transatlantic coordinator for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling coalition, told a German newspaper chain.

Mattis, who has made clear his concerns about Moscow, has sought to keep political tensions between the United States and Europe from bleeding into U.S. defense relationships.

At the last NATO defense ministers meeting in June in Brussels, Mattis, speaking at a closed-door NATO dinner, steered clear of the steel tariffs that Trump had just imposed on NATO allies on national security grounds, one NATO official said.

Instead, Mattis’ remarks stuck strictly to military issues like the NATO training mission in Iraq, the official said.

Dismayed European allies have also been struggling to salvage the Iran nuclear deal and preserve their Iranian trade after Trump pulled the United States from the landmark accord and ordered sanctions reimposed on Tehran.

Mattis had once backed staying with the deal, although he softened his public stance on the issue in the weeks before Trump withdrew.

European officials say there is frustration that even though they have good relations with Mattis this has not meant they have been able to effectively communicate their concerns to Trump.

“We tried to develop a relationship with our direct counterparts in Washington to try to reach the president and that didn’t work,” one official said.

European officials and diplomats said Mattis has a personal charm that works well, even with Europeans skeptical of the United States.

But for Europeans, there is growing concern that Trump might pay less and less attention to his defense secretary. 

In an administration that has seen a high degree of turnover, former NATO official Alexander Vershbow said some of his European contacts ask him from time to time about the possibility that Mattis might leave the job.

“That’s the nightmare scenario for the Europeans, that Mattis could depart,” said Vershbow, who was deputy secretary general of NATO until late 2016.

 

 

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South Sudan’s 7th Anniversary Overshadowed by Rejected Peace Plan

The seventh anniversary of South Sudan’s independence Monday was overshadowed by the latest setback in peace talks to end the country’s civil war.

Rebel groups rejected a proposed power-sharing agreement, just hours after the government announced the deal had been accepted by both sides. 

President Salva Kiir and his opponents have been unable to negotiate a lasting peace agreement despite heavy pressure from South Sudan’s neighbors and the “troika” countries of the United States, United Kingdom and Norway.

South Sudanese refugees residing in Arua, Uganda, praised the efforts of regional leaders to push the country’s warring parties toward a lasting peace deal, but some doubt their own leaders’ sincerity.

One of the doubters is Gie Rose, a refugee who is living in Arua District’s Imvepi settlement.

“They sat together, they discussed about peace. When they come together to Juba, they sit there and also they start fighting. So we cannot say they are going to have peace. We don’t think so,” Rose told VOA’s South Sudan in Focus.

Yengi Chaplain, another refugee at Imvepi, believes South Sudan’s leaders are simply caving in to pressure from the region and international community, but are not sincere about achieving peace.

“The thing should come from the heart, not being forced to do it. If it is something that is forced by other people, then even though I shake hands with you, still in my heart, I still have that pain,” Chaplain told VOA.

South Sudanese refugee Bidal Jeffers at Arua’s Rhino settlement said the previous peace talks placed too much emphasis on power sharing among the rival leaders and not enough on tending to the basic needs of citizens.

“Put the people first and what the people need. Let them forget about their differences in power struggles,” Jeffers said.

As South Sudan commemorates its independence day, some refugees at Imvepi said they have nothing to celebrate, as painful memories continue to haunt them.

“Celebration comes when we have happiness and happiness is when there is peace and you are at your home,” refugee Bidal Enoch said.

Pompeo: Stop the bloodshed

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo released a statement Monday, saying, “This should be a day of celebration marking South Sudan’s emergence as an independent state and the beginning of a new era of greater peace.” But instead, he added, “the conflict continues to impose immense suffering on South Sudan’s diverse citizens.” 

Pompeo called on the South Sudan government “and all parties to the conflict to immediately stop the bloodshed” and resolve their differences through dialogue that includes “a broad spectrum of society.” He said only when the fighting stops “can South Sudan begin on a path towards inclusive economic growth and genuine reconciliation.”

Pompeo said the United States remains a friend of the South Sudanese people and will work with “responsible leaders willing to deliver the peace, opportunity, and justice” South Sudanese have long awaited.

Hope in negotiation

A South Sudanese political analyst sees hope in the fact that President Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar are at least discussing a power-sharing proposal. 

“The fact that the leaders of the warring parties went to Uganda then made a breakthrough that they can form a government of national unity and that Dr. Riek can come back and be the first vice president, that is the breakthrough of Entebbe,” said James Okuk, a political science lecturer at Juba University.

Aside from reinstating Machar as “first vice president,” the proposal calls for a total of four vice presidents, including a woman, and would expand the number of ministers and members of parliament. 

SPLM-In Opposition spokesman Mabior Grang said Monday that the SPLM-IO is “not negotiating for positions, but wants to address the root cause of the conflict in South Sudan,” and that his group rejects the proposal because “it only focuses on the accommodation of politicians.”

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Ex-Foes Ethiopia, Eritrea Eye Peace Dividend After Historic Deal

After declaring an end on Monday to a costly two-decade military stalemate, Ethiopia and Eritrea — one a rising African star, the other among the world’s most isolationist nations — appear poised to reap a lucrative peace dividend.

The dramatic announcement of an end to the “state of war” between the neighbors came at the climax of a two-day visit to Eritrea by Ethiopia’s reform-minded Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has led the push for a pacifying of relations.

“This move opens prospects for real, regional economic integration. Get the economic underpinnings of the region right and you get stability,” said Alex Rondos, the European Union’s special representative for the Horn of Africa.

Eritrea, formerly a province of Ethiopia, waged a 30-year war for independence and seceded in 1993. But relations soon soured and around 800,000 people died in a 1998-2000 war.

Ahmed has promised to finally implement the peace accord that ended that conflict, a move that could allow both countries to rein in defense spending and redirect funds to areas with greater long-term benefits, such as schools or roads.

“Having those resources on both sides channeled back to their economies is a significant positive impact,” Belachew Mekuria of the Ethiopian Investment Commission told Reuters. “You can’t imagine how wasteful it is to secure a border which is more or less artificial.”

Of perhaps even greater economic significance, however, was an agreement to jointly develop Eritrea’s ports, a development that would give landlocked Ethiopia, among Africa’s fastest-growing economies, a vital outlet to the Red Sea.

Ethiopia is developing its light manufacturing and apparel sectors by building industrial parks that have attracted the likes of U.S. fashion giant PVH, Dubai-based Velocity Apparelz Companies and China’s Jiangsu Sunshine Group.

It is also attracting significant foreign investment into agriculture and horticulture, making use of climatic conditions resembling neighboring Kenya to become a major source of cut flowers to Europe.

However, for maritime exports Ethiopia has been heavily dependent on ports in tiny neighbor Djibouti.

According to the Ethiopian Textile Development Institute, it takes up to 44 days for clothing consignments leaving Ethiopian factories to reach buyers in Europe, compared to an average 28 days in Bangladesh and 21 days in China.

Eritrean ports could ease bottlenecks. And while the required upgrades are likely beyond the means of Eritrea, financial backing from Ethiopia could make them realistic.

“There are enormous potential complementarities between the two countries if the recent political advances are consolidated,” said Andrew Mold, who heads the East Africa office of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.

Long road

In the first concrete signs of a healing of relations, the two countries re-established telephone connections. Ethiopian Airlines is also due to begin flying to the Eritrean capital Asmara next week.

Reflecting investor optimism, Ethiopia’s dollar-denominated 2014 bond soared for the third-straight session Monday to trade at its highest level in 10 weeks.

However, challenges remain.

Ethiopia faces heavy debt related to an infrastructure drive that included a $4 billion, Chinese-built railway to Djibouti.

The need to finance further upgrades, this time in erstwhile enemy Eritrea, will test its borrowing capacity.

Though growth has averaged nearly 10 percent for the past decade — starting from a very low base — analysts say the Ethiopian economy is choked by dollar shortages caused mainly by heavy public investment in mega-projects.

Both sides will also probably face opposition to the rapprochement from entrenched hawks at home.

Two people were killed in a grenade attack on a pro-Ahmed rally in Addis Ababa last month with suspicion falling on those opposed to the prime minister’s reform agenda.

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s government is notoriously isolationist and its initial silence in the face of Ethiopia’s overtures was interpreted by some as skepticism.

But its decrepit economy, which forces thousands of young Eritreans to flee every year, most of them to Europe, and the prospect of relief from international sanctions could give the government an incentive to stick to the deal.

“The economy in Eritrea is in very dire straits. It would be logical for it to also want re-engagement,” said Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at London’s Chatham House think tank. “But this will be a slow process with fits and starts.”

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