Trump hosts Japan’s Ishiba amid early moves that have rattled some allies

WHITE HOUSE — U.S. President Donald Trump hosts Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the White House on Friday, in a visit that Tokyo hopes will reaffirm the U.S.-Japan alliance amid Trump’s early foreign policy moves that have rattled allies and adversaries.

Trump and Ishiba are expected to discuss increasing joint military exercises and cooperation on defense equipment and technology, ramping up Japanese investments to the United States, and American energy exports to Japan, a senior Trump administration official said in a briefing to reporters Friday.

The official said they also will talk about improving cybersecurity capabilities, bolstering space cooperation and promoting joint business opportunities to develop critical technologies, including AI and semiconductors.

Ishiba’s visit comes amid anxiety in Tokyo as Trump has put pressure on some U.S. allies and partners, saying he wants to absorb Canada as a U.S. state, acquire Greenland from Denmark and take control of the Panama Canal.

“We would like to first establish a higher relationship of trust and cooperation between two countries, especially the two leaders,” a senior Japanese government official told reporters during a briefing Thursday.

The U.S. president has imposed fresh 10% tariffs on China and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico — although the latter two have been at least temporarily delayed. He has warned of possible tariffs against other countries, especially those with whom the U.S. holds a trade deficit, such as Japan.

“We all know that President Trump pays a lot of attention to the deficit as an indication of the economic strength of the relationship. So, I’m sure discussions will happen about that,” the Trump administration official said.

Other strains on the U.S.-Japan relationship include former President Joe Biden’s blocking of a $15 billion acquisition bid by Japan’s largest steel producer, Nippon Steel, for Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel.

Biden blocked the deal during the final weeks of his term, citing national security concerns. Trump has said he also opposes the deal.

The White House has not responded to VOA’s query on Trump’s current position on Nippon Steel. The Japanese prime minister’s office did not respond to VOA’s query on whether the issue will be raised today.

Continuity on security front

Under then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Japan became a key player in what the Biden administration called a “lattice-like strategic architecture” to bolster deterrence against the two main U.S. adversaries in the Pacific: China and North Korea.

Biden’s approach connected Tokyo with other allies in trilateral formats and other groupings, including with South Korea, Australia and the Philippines, to deter regional threats in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula.

Japan is anxious to maintain ties forged in recent years, during which time Tokyo has increased defense spending and intensified joint military exercises with the U.S. and other regional allies.

Japan needs a “multilayered network of security” to defend itself, the senior Japanese official said.

The Trump administration will continue to support trilateral efforts and some of the working groups that have come out from under those over the last few years, the Trump official said. “There may be some adjustments to where the focus is on trilateral cooperation, but I think largely you will see continuity.”

Under his first term, Trump and then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed on the “free and open Indo-Pacific” framework to promote peace and prosperity in the region. The two countries also agreed to elevate what’s known as the Quad grouping with India and Australia.

The fact that the Trump administration sees those formats as a critical part of its strategy in the Pacific is important, said Jeffrey Hornung, the Japan Lead for the RAND National Security Research Division.

A key indicator to watch is whether the leaders will come out with a joint statement on a free and open Indo-Pacific. While it may sound like a diplomatic cliché, it would deliver a strong message to Beijing to not be provocative toward Taiwan, Hornung told VOA.

In dealing with the threats from Pyongyang, the Trump official underscored the U.S. is “committed to the complete denuclearization of North Korea.”

Making deals with Japan

While maintaining the security alliance, analysts say Trump may use the visit as an opportunity to broker deals that would further his “America First” agenda, using what he sees as Tokyo’s interests as leverage.

“Part of President Trump’s negotiating stance for almost all issues is that we don’t really know where he wants to land in the end,” said Kenji Kushida, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“If the promise to allow Nippon Steel to acquire U.S. Steel can be used as bargaining leverage, he may use this to get Japan to pay much more than they’re already committed, to help contribute to U.S. military bases and other defense costs,” he told VOA.

Ahead of Ishiba’s visit, Nippon Steel said its proposed acquisition is aligned with Trump’s goals of a stronger United States.

“From Japan’s perspective, they want to position themselves as the staunch ally of U.S. interests in Asia, and so fitting into that set of interests is Nippon Steel’s strategy here,” Kushida said.

Tokyo is aware of what Trump wants — investments in key industries such as AI and semiconductors, increasing Tokyo’s defense spending and American energy purchase.

“Those are all areas that Japan does have shared interests. They have technology. They have the money to invest in some of these areas, and so they’re able to use their leverage in a very strategic manner,” Hornung said. “At the same time, trying to promote with Trump the things that they’re interested in: making sure that U.S. forces remain in Japan, making sure that the U.S. remains committed to the Indo-Pacific.”

The best-case scenario for Ishiba is that Trump doesn’t ask beyond what Tokyo already expected, said Kushida.

“Perhaps an increase in the defense sharing burden, mainly buying U.S. military equipment, expansion of U.S. bases, perhaps, and then perhaps some other financial commitments, but nothing that would upset the sort of geopolitical status in East Asia to Japan’s disadvantage,” Kushida said. “Nothing very extreme, or to get mixed in with some of the issues In the Middle East in ways that Japan has been trying to keep out.”

The leaders are expected to hold a press conference later Friday.

Calla Yu and Kim Lewis contributed to this report.

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VOA Russian: Momentum lost for North Korean troops in Russia

Thousands of North Korean troops helped Russia regain some of its territory in the Kursk region following Ukraine’s counterattack, but the Russian army is now using them less on the front line and have pulled some back. VOA Russian spoke to experts who noted that despite initial successes, the losses in manpower among North Korean recruits became overwhelming as they were unprepared and not trained for the current war in Ukraine. 

Click here for the full story in Russian.

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US service member, 3 contractors die in plane crash in Philippines

MANILA, PHILIPPINES — One U.S. service member and three defense contractors were killed Thursday when a plane contracted by the U.S. military crashed in a rice field in the southern Philippines, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said.

The aircraft was conducting a routine mission “providing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance support at the request of our Philippine allies,” the command said in a statement. It said the cause of the crash was under investigation.

The Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines also confirmed the crash of a light plane in Maguindanao del Sur province. It did not immediately provide other details.

The bodies of the four people were retrieved from the wreckage in Ampatuan town, said Ameer Jehad Tim Ambolodto, a safety officer of Maguindanao del Sur. Indo-Pacific Command said the names of the crew were being withheld pending family notifications.

Windy Beaty, a provincial disaster-mitigation officer, told The Associated Press that she received reports that residents saw smoke coming from the plane and heard an explosion before the aircraft plummeted to the ground less than a kilometer from a cluster of farmhouses.

Nobody was reported injured on or near the crash site, which was cordoned off by troops, Beaty said.

U.S. forces have been deployed in a Philippine military camp in the country’s south for decades to help provide advice and training to Filipino forces battling Muslim militants. The region is the homeland of minority Muslims in the largely Roman Catholic nation.

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Japan’s Ishiba faces balancing act in first meeting with Trump

Seoul, South Korea — When Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba meets with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Friday, his goal, according to Japanese officials, will be straightforward: reaffirm the U.S.-Japan alliance and build a strong rapport with Trump.

But many in Tokyo see Ishiba’s goal as even simpler: to avoid a diplomatic disaster with a newly re-elected Trump, whose “America First” foreign policy has returned with even greater intensity than during his first term.

Not even three weeks after retaking office, Trump has escalated pressure on U.S. allies and partners, often in abrupt and unpredictable ways.

He has threatened tariffs on Mexico and Canada while raising the possibility of military action against cartels and suggesting Canada become the 51st state. He has floated seizing Greenland from fellow NATO member Denmark, and warned Panama that if it doesn’t curb Chinese influence, the U.S. could forcibly take back control of the Panama Canal.

The developments have rattled many in Tokyo, which relies on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and has long aligned itself with the concept of a U.S.-led, rules-based international order.

“If you watch Japanese media or listen to what Japanese people say, they’re just hoping that Ishiba can get out of this meeting without being a victim of some kind of new attack from America,” said Jeffrey J. Hall, a Japanese politics specialist at Kanda University of International Studies.

Emulating Abe?

So far, Japan has been spared Trump’s second-term criticism. Last week, while announcing his meeting with Ishiba, Trump declared, “I like Japan,” citing his friendship with Shinzo Abe, the country’s deceased former prime minister.

Abe, who led Japan for nearly all of Trump’s first term, carefully cultivated the relationship through personal diplomacy and flattery – often playing golf with Trump and even gifting him a gold-plated golf club. Many Japanese commentators hope Ishiba can take a similar approach to maintain smooth relations with Trump.

But that may be difficult. Unlike Abe, Ishiba leads an unstable minority government and faces the possibility of his party losing its Upper House majority in crucial elections later this year.

Analysts also say Ishiba’s less charismatic personality may make it hard for him to form a personal bond with Trump.

“He doesn’t do the bullet points and assertive style of communication that Trump seems to appreciate,” said Philip Turner, a former senior New Zealand diplomat now based in Tokyo. “If flattery is the solution, then Ishiba probably is not very good at it.”

Better to stay quiet?

The situation is so volatile that some in Japan question whether Ishiba should be meeting Trump right now at all. Instead of walking into danger, they ask, why not try to stay off Trump’s radar for as long as possible?

But a quiet approach may not work either, said Mieko Nakabayashi, a former Japanese lawmaker. “Some people say, ‘Don’t wake the sleeping baby,’ but this time Ishiba may have to do it,” said Nakabayashi, a professor at Tokyo’s Waseda University.

If Trump eventually threatens Japan with tariffs, Nakabayashi said it will be better for Ishiba to have established a personal relationship with him beforehand to manage the crisis.

“You have to take a risk if you want to have a better relationship with Mr. Trump,” she added.

To head off potential pressure, analysts say Ishiba may highlight Japan’s role as the largest foreign investor in the United States. He may also want to raise economic issues like Nippon Steel’s attempted takeover of U.S. Steel, which was blocked by the administration of former U.S. president Joe Biden.

But some analysts predict Ishiba may scale back his ambitions, aiming simply to pave the way for a Trump visit to Japan, where officials would try to demonstrate the importance of the alliance firsthand.

Hall said that approach may be successful, if only because “Trump seems to have his plate full with a lot of other things right now and Japan is a sort of reliable partner that doesn’t stir things up.”

“But we’ll have to see. We really can’t predict America and how it will act right now,” he added. “It’s just at a level of uncertainty that Japan has never experienced before.”

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South Korea’s impeached prime minister says Cabinet had concerns over martial law

SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA — South Korea’s impeached prime minister told parliament on Thursday that “everyone” in a hastily arranged meeting of ministers expressed concerns about President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law plan before he announced it on Dec. 3.

Han Duck-soo, who was briefly acting president after Yoon was impeached and suspended from power on Dec. 14, before being impeached himself, on Thursday joined acting President Choi Sang-mok, the finance minister, in facing parliamentary questioning over their role in the shock martial law decision.

“Everyone objected and expressed worry and raised the problems with this decision to the president,” Han told a special committee, referring to the meeting where Yoon told some cabinet members of his intention to declare martial law.

The martial law lasted around six hours before Yoon rescinded the order in the face of opposition from parliament, but it sent shockwaves through Asia’s fourth-largest economy and sparked a spiraling political crisis.

Choi told the committee that the biggest challenges in the country right now include the livelihood of the people and changes in the international order.

“There’s the need to stabilize government administration,” he said.

Yoon appeared on Thursday at a hearing in his impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court, which will decide whether to reinstate him or remove him permanently from office.

Senior military officials testified in the court about their role in deploying to parliament that night.

“My mission was to blockade the parliament building and the members’ hall, and secure those buildings,” said Army Colonel Kim Hyun-tae, who personally led about 97 special forces troops on the ground.

Kim said after they entered the building, his commander, Kwak Jong-geun, ordered him to get in the main chamber of the building where lawmakers had gathered to lift the martial law.

“(My commander) asked if we could get in because he said there shouldn’t be more than 150 people,” Kim testified, though he said he did not know the significance of that number at the time, or whether his commander meant lawmakers.

Kwak, the commander of the Army Special Warfare Command, has said he was told to stop 150 lawmakers or more from gathering, the quorum needed to vote down the martial law decree.

Kim said he told Kwak his troops were not able to enter the chamber. Eventually 190 lawmakers defied the cordon to vote against Yoon’s decision.

Kwak took the stand at the court later on Thursday and faced Yoon in the same courtroom. Kwak has been saying that Yoon directly ordered him to “drag out” lawmakers but Yoon did not ask him to protect civilians or withdraw his troops, contradicting Yoon’s claims.

Yoon has flatly denied any wrongdoing and allegations about attempted arrests of politicians. He has defended the martial law announcement two months ago as his right as the head of the state.

Yoon is in jail and separately faces a criminal trial on insurrection charges. 

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Greenlanders explore Pacific Islands’ relationship with Washington

WASHINGTON — Greenland’s representative in the United States met recently with at least one ambassador from the Pacific Islands to learn more about a political arrangement that some think could create an opportunity for the Arctic island and Washington, VOA has learned.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his interest in either buying or taking control of Greenland, a resource-rich semiautonomous territory of Denmark, noting its strategic importance and position in the Arctic Ocean where Russia and China are rapidly advancing. But there has been pushback from the island’s residents, political leaders, Denmark and Europe.

Greenland representatives have declined to comment to VOA on their meeting that focused on a framework that Pacific Island nations have with Washington — known as the Compacts of Free Association, or COFA. The compacts give the United States military access to three strategic Pacific Islands — the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of Palau — in exchange for economic aid.

Jackson Soram, ambassador to the United States from the Federated States of Micronesia, told VOA that the discussions took place at the end of January and focused on “basic questions” on the “provisions of economic assistance, and also the security and defense provisions of the compacts.”

Soram said he met with representatives from Greenland and the Faroe Islands, another self-ruled Danish territory.

Alexander Gray, a former National Security Council chief of staff during the first Trump administration who worked on Pacific Island issues, told VOA he encouraged the Pacific Islands’ ambassadors to conduct these meetings.

“[The Greenlanders] want independence from Denmark,” Gray, who is now a managing partner of American Global Strategies, said in an emailed response. “An independent Greenland, with a tiny population and the second-least densely populated geography on the planet, will quickly become dominated and its sovereignty undermined by Beijing and Moscow.”

Russia has been reopening bases in the region even as Beijing has invested more than $90 billion in infrastructure projects in the Arctic Circle. Both the United States and Denmark have military bases in Greenland.

Gray said arctic dominance by Moscow and Beijing poses “a unique strategic threat” to the United States. He said a COFA “would allow Greenland to maintain its sovereignty, while allowing the U.S. to ensure that sovereignty is truly protected.”

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has repeatedly told Trump that Greenland is “not for sale.” But Monday, she said Copenhagen welcomes additional U.S. military investment in the strategic island.

“So, if this is about securing our part of the world, we can find a way forward,” she said.

US-Greenland defense agreement

Some analysts say that neither Washington nor Nuuk needs a COFA agreement to increase the U.S. military presence in Greenland. In 2004, the United States, Greenland and Denmark signed the Igaliku Agreement to reduce the U.S. military presence in Greenland to a single air base, the Thule Air Base, which has been renamed Pitfuffik Space Base. It provides Washington with missile defense and space surveillance.

The 2004 agreement provides for “any significant changes to U.S. military operations or facilities” in Greenland to be made through consultation between Washington, Nuuk and Copenhagen.

“Washington can already achieve its objectives through working with Greenland and Denmark,” Otto Svendsen, an associate fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote last month on CSIS’s website.

A Danish Institute for International Studies policy brief in 2022 pointed out that COFA has created economic dependence between the Marshall Islands and the United States, as U.S. donor money makes up 70% of the Marshall Islands’ total GDP. This is the opposite of what Greenland’s leaders say they want.

Search for independence

A 2009 law called the Act on Greenland Self-Government outlines a “road map” —-drawn up by Nuuk and Copenhagen — for an independent Greenland, which requires a successful referendum.

In his New Year’s address, Greenland Prime Minister Mute Egede said, “The upcoming new election period must, together with the citizens, create these new steps,” opening the door for a referendum during parliamentary elections in April.

A 2019 survey suggested that more than two-thirds of Greenlanders want independence at some point. Yet in a poll released in January by two newspapers in Denmark and Greenland, 85% say they do not want to be part of the United States. Fifty-five percent, however, see Trump’s interest in Greenland as an opportunity.

Gray told VOA that the U.S., Denmark and Greenland should enter trilateral discussions for a compact.

“Working together, Washington, Copenhagen, and Nuuk can find common ground and move forward on a post-independence arrangement that works for all parties,” he said in an emailed response.

As far back as 2010, Greenland told the United Nations it was exploring the idea of negotiating independence through a “free association” with Denmark.

Egede said he is ready to meet with Trump, but, “We do not want to be Danes. We do not want to be Americans.”

Soram said he is trying to get ambassadors from Palau and the Marshall Islands to attend additional meetings with Greenland, the Faroe Islands and Denmark.

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VOA Mandarin: Chinese firms relocated to Mexico face new problems amid Trump tariffs

President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, temporarily put on hold this week, could disrupt the strategy of Chinese companies that have relocated to northern Mexico in recent years. By moving production closer to the U.S. market, these firms have been able to bypass U.S. tariffs toward China through the USMCA trade deal. Experts warn that these companies now face two significant challenges. 

Click here for the full story in Mandarin.

 

 

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VOA Mandarin: China retaliates by imposing tariffs on US goods

TAIPEI, TAIWAN — The Chinese government on Tuesday launched four consecutive trade measures against the United States, including 10%-15% tariffs, an antitrust investigation on Google, a blacklist of two U.S. companies, and export controls on five types of metals. Analysts said that Beijing’s four consecutive countermeasures were intended not only to retaliate against the United States but also to increase bargaining chips in negotiations with the U.S.

Click here for the full story in Mandarin. 

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Thai Prime Minister heads to China amid growing global uncertainties

Taipei, Taiwan — Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra kicks off a four-day trip to China on Wednesday that is expected to focus on economic and trade ties. During the visit, which will include a meeting with China’s leader Xi Jinping, analysts say the prime minister will also seek Beijing’s help in boosting Chinese tourists’ confidence in traveling to Thailand.

Paetongtarn’s trip comes amid growing concerns among Chinese tourists about the risks of traveling to Thailand. In January a television actor from China, Wang Xing, was abducted from the Southeast Asian country and forced to work in a scam center in neighboring Myanmar.

“China is pretty concerned about what’s going on in Thailand, especially the cyber scam centers, so the Thai Prime Minister’s visit is to assure the Chinese that the Thais are doing whatever they can to deal with the scam center [issue],” said Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia program.

In recent weeks, Thai and Chinese law enforcement joined forces publicly to crack down on the dozens of cyber scam operations dotting the Chinese-Thai-and-Myanmar border, including the arrest of a man suspected of involvement in the abduction of the Chinese artist Wang Xing.  

Chinese and Thai officials agreed to further enhance cooperation in the fight against the cyber scam gangs, including setting up a coordination center in Bangkok.

“Thai Prime Minister may allow Chinese police freer rein to operate in Thailand, including working more formally with Thai police and establishing Chinese police stations in Thailand,” Paul Chambers, an expert on Southeast Asian affairs at Naresuan University in Thailand, told VOA in a written response.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, foreign tourism to Thailand plunged, pummeling the economy. Numbers have started to recover and some 35 million visited the country in 2024, with more than 6.2 million from China. The recent abduction case, however, has presented a new challenge.

“Bringing back tourism is so important for Thailand, and they need the Chinese government’s support due to Beijing’s control over the media,” said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, who focuses on Southeast Asia politics.

While the cyber scam centers have posed challenges to Thailand and China, some analysts say this issue won’t fundamentally change relations between the two countries.

“Some recent cooperation on this front [between China and Thailand] signals that both countries are going to be pragmatic about this and not let the overall concerns rock the official relationship,” Hunter Marston, a research fellow at La Trobe University in Australia, told VOA by phone.

Improving economic ties

In addition to tackling illegal cyber scam operations, experts say the Thai prime minister also will seek to strengthen bilateral cooperation in areas such as infrastructure development with China during her trip. “Thailand may offer China some new choices for infrastructure projects,” Paul Chambers in Thailand said.

One project that is likely to be high on the agenda is the 609-kilometer-long high-speed rail project that Thailand hopes to finish building by 2030. The railway, when complete, will connect Thailand with southern China by traveling through neighboring Laos.

“The high-speed rail will be the priority for Thailand when it comes to their engagement with China, and China sees this project as beneficial to their regional vision for connectivity in the long run,” Marston said.

Despite the mutual interest in deepening collaboration over infrastructure projects, Thailand also faces challenges posed by the influx of cheap Chinese goods. Last year, the Thai government set up a task force made up of 28 agencies to review and revise regulations to curb the threats to Thai businesses posed by cheap Chinese imports.  

While these challenges remain serious, Yaacob at Lowy Institute in Australia said Bangkok is likely to focus on more than just trade concerns.

“The Thai government will be keen to look at what areas they can work with the Chinese, such as attracting Chinese investments that could create jobs for the Thai people,” he told VOA in a video interview through Zoom.

Hedging between U.S. and China

Ahead of Paetongtarn’s trip to China, rights groups and countries around the world, including the U.S., have called on Thailand not to deport 48 Uyghur detainees back to China. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had suggested that he would use diplomacy and the “longstanding U.S.-Thailand alliance to keep that from happening.

Marston says the Thai government may comply with Beijing’s demands.

“Thailand might use China’s request for the deportation of Uyghurs to ask for some deliverables from China, such as receiving Chinese support to become an advanced economy or to dominate certain sectors,” he told VOA.  

Yaacob believes Thailand is likely to continue its longstanding foreign policy stance of hedging between Beijing and Washington. However, he adds that if the Trump administration comes down hard on Southeast Asia in terms of trade policies, it could give Beijing more room to seek closer ties with Bangkok.

“Southeast Asian countries rely on trade, so if they are affected [by the Trump administration’s policies], they may look at China as an alternative,” Yaacob told VOA.

In his view, security is an area where Beijing may seek to reduce Washington’s influence in Southeast Asia.

“The U.S. has played a major security role in Southeast Asia and China is quite interested in reducing American influence in that domain since they view Southeast Asia as their backyard,” Yaacob said. 

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Thailand to cut power to Myanmar border areas linked to scam centers

BANGKOK — Thailand will suspend electricity supply to some border areas with Myanmar in an effort to curb scam centres, its government said on Tuesday, amid growing pressure on the illegal compounds that have ensnared vast numbers of people of multiple nationalities.

According to the United Nations, hundreds of thousands of people have been trafficked by criminal gangs and forced to work in scam centers and illegal online operations across Southeast Asia, including along the Thai-Myanmar border. A 2023 U.N. report estimated the fast-growing operations generate billions of dollars annually.

“We must take action to cut off the electricity immediately,” Thai Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters, adding authorities would instruct the Provincial Electricity Authority that supplies power to these areas to cut it off.

The scam compounds have come into renewed focus after Chinese actor Wang Xing was abducted after arriving in Thailand last month. He was later freed by Thai police who found him in Myanmar.

Thailand has been concerned about the impact on its vital tourism sector and has sought to allay safety concerns of visitors from China, a key source market.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said talks would be held on Tuesday with the National Security Council on various measures to address the scam compounds, including stopping the power supply.

“What happened has had a huge impact on many Thai people and the image of the country,” she said.

Asked when power would be cut off, she said: “Today, if we talk and it’s clear, then we can do it today.”

The security council’s chief on Monday said evidence showed transnational crime syndicates operating in Myanmar’s Tachileik, Myawaddy, and Payathonzu – outlining areas that the power supply cuts may target.

Myanmar’s state-run Global New Light of Myanmar, in a rare article on scam centers last month, said basic essentials, including power and internet, are not provided by Myanmar but by other countries, in a veiled reference to Thailand.

It said “foreign organizations” were investing in this infrastructure.

Myanmar’s military government has since October 2023 repatriated more than 55,000 foreigners, overwhelmingly Chinese, who were forced to work in scam compounds to their home countries, the newspaper said.

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Rice stockpile eyed as Japan PM orders swift relief from rising prices

TOKYO — Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has ordered the swift implementation of measures to give consumers relief from inflated food prices, including an unprecedented release of stockpiled rice to bring down costs, a minister said on Tuesday.

At a news conference, Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said Ishiba had instructed the cabinet to proceed quickly with countermeasures as the prices of rice, vegetables and other living costs have soared in recent months.

“Citizens are suffering greatly and feeling pain,” he said, noting that the elevated price of rice had been unexpected.

The average transaction price of rice produced last year jumped 55% to $153 per 60 kg, from the previous year, according to government data.

The agriculture ministry last week agreed on a new policy that would allow the government to sell stockpiled rice to farm cooperatives on the condition that the buyers would sell back the equivalent amount to the government within a year. It would be the first time stockpiled rice has been released to bring down prices.

Details such as the sale price and timing are yet to be decided, a ministry official said on Tuesday.

Japanese consumer prices rose 3.6% in December from the previous year, marking the biggest jump in almost two years, while the share of households’ spending on food hit a four-decade high last year.

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Australia hits right-wing online network ‘Terrorgram’ with sanctions

Sydney — Australia on Monday imposed sanctions on extreme right-wing online network “Terrorgram” as part of its efforts to combat a rise in antisemitism and online extremism, following similar moves by Britain and the United States. 

Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the government’s action would make it a criminal offense to engage with “Terrorgram” and help prevent children from becoming caught up in far-right extremism. 

“Terrorgram is an online network that promotes white supremacy and racially-motivated violence,” Wong said in a statement. 

“It is the first time any Australian Government has imposed counterterrorism financing sanctions on an entity based entirely online.” 

Offenders will face up to 10 years in jail and heavy fines, she said. 

The Australian government also renewed sanctions on four right-wing groups: the National Socialist Order, the Russian Imperial Movement, Sonnenkrieg Division and The Base, Wong said. 

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration in January designated “Terrorgram,” which primarily operates on the Telegram social media site, accusing it of promoting violent white supremacy. Britain in April made it a criminal offense in the country to belong to or promote the group. 

In a statement, Telegram said calls to violence have no place on its platform. 

“Moderators removed several channels that used variations of the ‘Terrorgram’ name when they were discovered years ago. Similar content is banned whenever it appears,” it said. 

Australia has also seen an escalating series of attacks on synagogues, buildings and cars since the Israel-Gaza war began in October 2023, sparking fear among Australia’s nearly 115,000 Jewish people. 

Police last week arrested members of a neo-Nazi group in the South Australian city of Adelaide when the country marked its National Day and charged a man for displaying a Nazi symbol.

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US markets pare losses after Trump pauses tariff on Mexican imports

U.S. stock markets fell sharply in early trading Monday but pared their losses after President Donald Trump paused a planned 25% tariff on Mexican imports.

The three major U.S. stock indices — the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 blue chip stocks, the broader S&P 500 and the tech-heavy NASDAQ — all dropped nearly 2% or more on fears that Trump’s new tariffs targeting Canada, China and Mexico would threaten the global economy.

But the losses were cut in half after Trump paused the levy on Mexican goods for a month, even though his planned 25% tariff on Canadian goods and a 10% levy on Chinese imports were still set to take hold at midnight.

Trump was planning further discussions mid-afternoon Monday with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Stock markets in Asia fell Monday amid investor concerns about the tariffs.

Japan’s Nikkei index closed down 2.66%, while South Korea’s KOSPI index finished off 2.5%. 

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down more than 2% in early trading before rallying to close down just .07%.

Britain’s FTSE index, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC40 all dropped more than 1%.

Canada and Mexico both announced tariffs on U.S. goods in response to Trump’s move before Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum told Trump she would send 10,000 National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border to try to curb the flow of the deadly opioid fentanyl into the U.S. and Trump paused his tariff on Mexican imports.

China has pledged to file a protest with the World Trade Organization over the Trump tariff increase on its exports to the U.S. 

Canada, China and Mexico are the top three U.S. trade partners. 

Some information for this story came from The Associated Press and Reuters.

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Rising floodwaters force evacuations in eastern Australia

SYDNEY — Fast-moving floodwaters rose Monday in northeastern Australia after forcing many to flee, blacking out homes, and sweeping away a chunk of a critical bridge.

Storms have already dumped more than a meter of rain in two days in parts of Queensland, engulfing homes, businesses and roads in muddy waters, authorities said.

Aerial footage showed rural communities surrounded by the floodwaters, cut off from nearby roads.

“We are going to see widespread rain and storms spread across much of northern Queensland,” the state’s premier, David Crisafulli, warned in a news conference.

“We remain prepared for the ongoing prospect of more rain and the likelihood of more flooding, both flash flooding and riverine flooding,” he said.

Emergency services carried out 11 “swift water rescues” overnight, the premier said.

Areas of flood-hit Townsville, a popular coastal tourist destination that lies near the Great Barrier Reef, had been declared a “black zone,” he said.

“Our advice to residents in the black zone at the moment is to stay out of that zone and stay safe.”

The authorities told 2,100 people in the town to evacuate at the weekend, though about 10% refused, emergency services officials said.

‘Bridge torn in two’

One woman in her 60s was killed Sunday when the rescue boat she was in flipped over in the flood-hit rural town of Ingham, about 100 kilometers from Townsville, police said.

Her body was recovered later.

The floods swept away a section of a concrete bridge over a creek, cutting off the state’s main coastal road, the Bruce Highway, the state premier said.

“It’s not every day you see a bridge torn in two. That’s what has happened at Ollera Creek, and it is significant,” Crisafulli said.

Almost 11,000 properties remained without power across north Queensland,  Ergon Energy said, with no timeframe given for when electricity will be restored.

Townsville acting mayor Ann-Maree Greaney said the floods were expected to peak on Tuesday morning.

“The roads at the moment are cut off, so communities are isolated,” she told AFP.

The town was pressing for power to be restored and working with major supermarkets to deliver food, the mayor said.

As global temperatures rise because of climate change, scientists have warned that heatwaves and other extreme weather events, such as severe flooding, droughts and wildfires will become more frequent and more intense.

    

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Japan launches navigation satellite on new flagship rocket  

TOKYO — Japan’s space agency said Sunday it successfully launched a navigation satellite on its new flagship H3 rocket as the country seeks to have a more precise location positioning system of its own. 

The H3 rocket carrying the Michibiki 6 satellite lifted off from the Tanegashima Space Center on a southwestern Japanese island. 

Everything went smoothly and the satellite successfully separated from the rocket as planned about 29 minutes after the liftoff, said Makoto Arita, H3 project manager for the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA. 

Officials said it is expected to reach its targeted geospatial orbit in about two weeks. 

Japan currently has the quasi-zenith satellite system, or QZSS, with four satellites for a regional navigation system that first went into operation in 2018. The Michibiki 6 will be the fifth of its network. 

Michibiki’s signals are used to supplement American GPS and will further improve positioning data for smartphones, car and maritime navigation and drones. 

Japan plans to launch two more navigation satellites to have a seven-satellite system by March 2026 to have a more precise global positioning capability without relying on foreign services, including the U.S., according to the Japan Science and Technology Agency. By the late 2030s, Japan plans to have an 11-satellite network. 

Sunday’s launch, delayed by a day due to the weather, was the fourth consecutive successful flight for the H3 system after a shocking failed debut attempt last year when the rocket had to be destroyed with its payload. 

Japan sees a stable, commercially competitive space transport capability as key to its space program and national security and has been developing two new flagship rockets as successors to the mainstay H2A series — the larger H3 and a much smaller Epsilon system. It hopes to cater to diverse customer needs and improve its position in the growing satellite launch market. 

 

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1 dead, thousands urged to evacuate as Australia’s northeast battles floods

SYDNEY — One person died on Sunday in Australia’s north Queensland state in heavy flooding, authorities said, urging thousands of people to move to higher ground because of torrential rains.

Queensland authorities said major flooding was underway in coastal Hinchinbrook Shire, a locality of about 11,000 people about 500 kilometers north of state capital, Brisbane. Several suburbs in the nearby city of Townsville were also affected, authorities said.

North Queensland has large zinc reserves as well as major deposits of silver, lead, copper and iron ore. Townsville is a major processing center for the region’s base metals. In 2019, severe floods in the area disrupted lead and zinc concentrate rail shipments and damaged thousands of properties.

“Residents in low-lying areas should collect their evacuation kit and move to a safe place on higher ground. This situation may pose a threat to life and property,” regional emergency management authorities said on Sunday morning.

The flooding was triggered by heavy rain from a low-pressure system rich in tropical moisture, Australia’s weather forecaster said on its website, adding that 24-hour rainfall totals were likely up to 30 centimeters.

“The potential for heavy, locally intense rainfall and damaging winds may continue into early next week subject to the strength and position of the trough and low,” it said.

Frequent flooding has hit Australia’s east in recent years including “once in a century” floods that inundated the neighboring Northern Territory in January 2023 during a multiyear La Nina weather event. 

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Myanmar scam operations move south along Thai border

BANGKOK — Myanmar’s scam operations are expanding south along Thailand’s border, authorities have told VOA in recent days, and will continue operating as long as their access to SIM cards, Starlink satellites, electricity and the key human resources — scammers — continues.

The Myawaddy area in Myanmar, opposite the Thai border town of Mae Sot, is the “global capital” of scams, opposition People’s Party lawmaker Rangsiman Rome told VOA on Wednesday.

“We are talking about an empire,” he said, estimating the number of scammers in at least 40 major compounds there at around 300,000.

“They have scammed more than the entire gross domestic product of some countries, and there is no end to their operations in sight,” said Rangsiman, who is chair of the House of Representatives Committee on National Security and Border Affairs.

Powered by billions of dollars of illicit money from their scams, the crime bosses are already moving to new sites further south from Myawaddy along the Thai border, police, politicians and former scammers have told VOA.

New scam bases have already been set up hundreds of kilometers south of Mae Sot, in border areas of Myanmar held by ethnic rebels across from Thailand’s Sangkhlaburi district, a security attaché at a Southeast Asian embassy in Bangkok who deals directly with scam victims told VOA, requesting anonymity.

“The scam compounds are expanding far south of Myawaddy,” the source said.

A toxic mix of cross-border criminal interests, the protection of ethnic armed groups and Myanmar’s junta, has enabled the scam gangs to flourish, virtually in the open.

“What I’m most concerned with is about how Thai ‘grey money’ has operated as the wings for Chinese ‘grey money’ which makes enforcing the law even more impossible,” Rangsiman said, without elaborating on who he believes is backing the scam gangs.

Billions in losses estimated

A United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime report last year estimated losses of between $18 billion and $37 billion from scams across East and Southeast Asia in 2023 alone.

The scam networks are mainly operated by Chinese criminals in China or elsewhere, using foreign nationals from around the world to carry out elaborate romance or investment scams, hunting for victims online or through cold calls. Many of them have been tricked into traveling to Thailand for well-paying jobs but are trafficked into Myanmar instead to work as scammers against their will.

Last year Chinese authorities crossed into Myanmar and arrested over 50,000 of their nationals operating in scam factories along the eastern border with Yunnan province.

New scam rooms are cropping up to the south, including along Myanmar’s border with Thailand’s Kachanburi province — Rangsiman pointed to the border along Thailand’s Phop Phra district, 35 kilometers south of Mae Sot, and Payathonzu, in Myanmar’s Karen state and across from Sangkhlaburi, 300 kilometers from Mae Sot.

China’s deputy minister of public security, Liu Zhongyi, visited Mae Sot on Wednesday, a trip signaling Beijing’s prioritization of the scam issue in Myawaddy, according to Thai Police General Thatchai Pitanilabut, who is head of the Combat Call Center Crimes and Human Trafficking Task Force.

“Beijing is taking this matter very seriously,” he told reporters after the visit.

As “a transit route” to the scam rooms, Thailand needs to tackle the problem, as it is “giving us a bad image as someone who is an accomplice to human trafficking for the call center gangs,” he said.

Thai law enforcement authorities, which are working with the UNODC and other entities on the issue, have said they are committed to assisting and protecting victims of human trafficking as well as investigating and prosecuting perpetrators of call center crimes and human trafficking.

The scrutiny comes after a flurry of high-profile rescues of Chinese citizens tricked into scamming in Myawaddy. They include actor Wang Xing, who was rescued in early January after his case went viral on social media.

Thatchai said there are immediate measures Thailand can take to rein in the scam gangs.

“First and foremost, we must intercept and block all the supplies, including receivers, antennas, SIM boxes, and Starlink satellite internet dishes from leaving our borders,” he said, referring to the portable kits providing access to high-speed internet from Starlink, which have become essential tools for the scammers.

Rangsiman confirmed the movement of scam centers further south and added that the Thai Interior Ministry, acting through its Provincial Electricity Authority, could cut the power into Myawaddy, which is under consideration, but is yet to do so.

Questions are also being asked by foreign embassies about how vast numbers of foreigners from such disparate countries as Kenya and Japan have been able to cross a remote Thai border into Myanmar, seemingly without the knowledge of Thai authorities. It should be noted, though, that the Thai-Myanmar border is marked by the Moei River, which at some points can be as narrow as 10 meters.

Three police chiefs in charge of three Mae Sot police stations were transferred from their roles this week pending a probe into failing to stop human trafficking into Myanmar.

China holds the key to shutting down the Myawaddy scam base, said Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand’s former premier and a powerful tycoon whose daughter, Paetongtarn, is prime minister.

“China has major clout over Myanmar. We can’t speak to the Myanmar government directly … so we need China to help us,” he told reporters Thursday, referring to Myanmar’s post-coup junta.

Trafficking victims or not

With a crackdown seemingly imminent, human rights groups are urging Thailand to ensure foreigners tricked into working in the scam rooms are freed and treated as human trafficking victims.

Others who have recently left Myawaddy scam rooms paint a more complex picture of the motives of some of the rank-and-file scammers.

“It’s in the news everywhere, social media, it’s impossible for them not to be aware,” a Filipino woman who voluntarily went into one of the most notorious scam rooms told VOA, requesting that her name not be used.

“It’s sad but true … money is the only reason, and it is luring people into work,” she said.

The fear of a major Chinese-led crackdown has meant the scam bosses are now recruiting people who know what they are getting into rather than trafficking unsuspecting people, the woman said.

“The new ‘policy’ is that people need to be aware of what type of job they are taking on,” she said.

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New Zealand mountain is granted personhood, recognizing it as sacred for Maori

WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND — A mountain in New Zealand considered an ancestor by Indigenous people was recognized as a legal person on Thursday after a new law granted it all the rights and responsibilities of a human being.

Mount Taranaki — now known as Taranaki Maunga, its Maori name — is the latest natural feature to be granted personhood in New Zealand, which has ruled that a river and a stretch of sacred land are people before. The pristine, snow-capped dormant volcano is the second highest on New Zealand’s North Island at 2,518 meters and a popular spot for tourism, hiking and snow sports.

The legal recognition acknowledges the mountain’s theft from the Māori of the Taranaki region after New Zealand was colonized. It fulfills an agreement of redress from the country’s government to Indigenous people for harms perpetrated against the land since.

How can a mountain be a person?

The law passed Thursday gives Taranaki Maunga all the rights, powers, duties, responsibilities and liabilities of a person. Its legal personality has a name: Te Kahui Tupua, which the law views as “a living and indivisible whole.” It includes Taranaki and its surrounding peaks and land, “incorporating all their physical and metaphysical elements.”

A newly created entity will be “the face and voice” of the mountain, the law says, with four members from local Maori iwi, or tribes, and four members appointed by the country’s conservation minister.

Why is this mountain special?

“The mountain has long been an honored ancestor, a source of physical, cultural and spiritual sustenance and a final resting place,” Paul Goldsmith, the lawmaker responsible for the settlements between the government and Maori tribes, told Parliament in a speech on Thursday.

But colonizers of New Zealand in the 18th and 19th centuries took first the name of Taranaki and then the mountain itself. In 1770, the British explorer Captain James Cook spotted the peak from his ship and named it Mount Egmont.

In 1840, Maori tribes and representatives of the British crown signed the Treaty of Waitangi — New Zealand’s founding document — in which the Crown promised Maori would retain rights to their land and resources. But the Maori and English versions of the treaty differed — and Crown breaches of both began immediately.

In 1865, a vast swathe of Taranaki land, including the mountain, was confiscated to punish Maori for rebelling against the Crown. Over the next century hunting and sports groups had a say in the mountain’s management — but Maori did not.

“Traditional Maori practices associated with the mountain were banned while tourism was promoted,” Goldsmith said. But a Maori protest movement of the 1970s and ’80s has led to a surge of recognition for the Maori language, culture and rights in New Zealand law.

Redress has included billions of dollars in Treaty of Waitangi settlements — such as the agreement with the eight tribes of Taranaki, signed in 2023.

How will the mountain use its rights?

“Today, Taranaki, our maunga, our maunga tupuna, is released from the shackles, the shackles of injustice, of ignorance, of hate,” said Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, a co-leader of the political party Te Pati Maori and a descendant of the Taranaki tribes, using a phrase that means ancestral mountain.

“We grew up knowing there was nothing anyone could do to make us any less connected,” she added.

The mountain’s legal rights are intended to uphold its health and wellbeing. They will be employed to stop forced sales, restore its traditional uses and allow conservation work to protect the native wildlife that flourishes there. Public access will remain.

Do other parts of New Zealand have personhood?

New Zealand was the first country in the world to recognize natural features as people when a law passed in 2014 granted personhood to Te Urewera, a vast native forest on the North Island. Government ownership ceased and the tribe Tuhoe became its guardian.

“Te Urewera is ancient and enduring, a fortress of nature, alive with history; its scenery is abundant with mystery, adventure, and remote beauty,” the law begins, before describing its spiritual significance to Maori. In 2017, New Zealand recognized the Whanganui River as human, as part of a settlement with its local iwi.

How much support did the law receive?

The bill recognizing the mountain’s personhood was affirmed unanimously by Parliament’s 123 lawmakers. The vote was greeted by a ringing waiata — a Maori song — from the public gallery, packed with dozens who had traveled to the capital, Wellington, from Taranaki.

The unity provided brief respite in a tense period for race relations in New Zealand. In November, tens of thousands of people marched to Parliament to protest a law that would reshape the Treaty of Waitangi by setting rigid legal definitions for each clause. Detractors say the law — which is not expected to pass — would strip Maori of legal rights and dramatically reverse progress from the past five decades. 

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US aid freeze spells uncertain future for international media

WASHINGTON — On the front lines of the war in Ukraine, local newspapers are vital lifelines in areas where Russia has destroyed cell towers and internet infrastructure.

Journalists provide information about evacuation routes, document alleged Russian war crimes and troop movements, and counter Moscow’s propaganda.

Even a temporary freeze of U.S. foreign aid can mean financial difficulties for small media organizations that rely on outside donors to keep working.

“Many Ukrainian media may now face the threat of closure or significant reduction in operations in the coming weeks,” Sergiy Tomilenko, president of the National Union of Journalists of Ukraine, told VOA.

Ukraine is not alone.

News outlets on the front lines of war and authoritarianism from Ukraine and Belarus to Myanmar are among the organizations affected by a freeze on U.S. foreign aid.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Jan. 20 mandating all federal government agencies pause all foreign development assistance for 90 days.

The directive took effect on Jan. 24 and includes foreign funding from the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID.

A federal judge on Tuesday temporarily blocked a White House directive that ordered a freeze on federal aid programs, but that does not apply to the foreign aid pause.

“Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a Jan. 26 statement. “Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?”

Worldwide impact

Many independent news outlets around the world rely on State Department and USAID funding because they report in repressive environments, according to the JX Fund, a Berlin-based group that supports exiled media.

With the current freeze, news outlets around the world are scrambling to find alternative sources of funding in an attempt to continue delivering the news to their audiences and avoid shutting down, multiple analysts told VOA.

“The general feeling is panic. Panic is the only way to describe the situation,” Karol Luczka, who works in Eastern Europe at the International Press Institute in Vienna, told VOA.

JX Fund managing director Penelope Winterhager agreed. These outlets “are thrown back to emergency mode,” she said.

The measure is estimated to be affecting dozens of independent news outlets in more than 30 countries, according to the Brussels-based European Federation of Journalists, or EFJ.

Maja Sever, EFJ president, called on potential donors to fill the gap.

“The European Union and other donors cannot abandon to their fate journalists who are the best bulwark for defending the rule of law and democracy in countries where they are under threat,” Sever said in a statement Tuesday.

During the 90-day pause, relevant U.S. departments and agencies are required to review their foreign funding and determine whether the aid will continue, be modified or cease altogether, according to the executive order.

Neither the State Department nor USAID replied to VOA’s requests for comment.

In Ukraine

Tomilenko said the aid freeze is creating a dire situation for Ukrainian news outlets on the front line of the war.

“In many areas close to the battle lines, local newspapers are often the only reliable source of information,” said Tomilenko, who is based in Kyiv.

Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has ramped up global propaganda efforts while further restricting independent media inside Russia.

The war has also limited the advertising market in Ukraine, which would ideally be a primary source of financial independence for Ukrainian news outlets, said Tomilenko.

The USAID website says it supports programs that “promote free and independent media” in more than 30 countries. VOA could not determine how much U.S. aid goes to support media outlets in these countries.

In the case of Ukraine, Luczka said, “The previous administration in the U.S. saw the importance of supporting civil society in Ukraine in order to make sure that this country keeps standing.”

The United States has been the strongest player when it came to supporting independent media outlets, according to the JX Fund’s Winterhager.

But even though these outlets receive foreign funding, Winterhager emphasized that “their reporting is independent.”

In Myanmar

Several Myanmar news outlets that rely on financial support from USAID and Internews also find themselves in a precarious situation. Internews is a USAID-affiliated nonprofit that supports independent media.

After launching a coup in 2021, Myanmar’s military arrested journalists and banned news outlets. The crackdown forced entire outlets to flee into exile.

Some outlets now report from the Thai-Myanmar border, while others manage to operate from rebel-controlled regions of Myanmar.

Funding has been among the biggest problems for Myanmar media since the coup.

“It is difficult — or even impossible — for many of them to make commercial revenue in this environment,” Ben Dunant, editor-in-chief of the magazine Frontier Myanmar, told VOA last year. “This underlines the vulnerability of these media organizations whose operations are dependent on the whims of donors in faraway countries.”

Mizzima, one of the most prominent of the country’s news outlets and an affiliate of VOA, is among those affected by the aid freeze, according to local media reports.

Founded in exile in 1998, the media outlet covers news on the resistance against the junta and China’s growing influence in the region.

Another outlet, Western News, has already cut staff, according to its chief editor, Wunna Khwar Nyo.

“We are struggling to survive,” Wunna Khwar Nyo told VOA. “Ultimately, this will also hurt the Burmese people.”

If the funding freeze forces news outlets to shutter, the IPI’s Luczka warned that state-backed propaganda from countries such as Russia could fill the gap.

“When media outlets disappear, they create a void,” Luczka said. “And that void needs to be filled by something.”

VOA’s Burmese Service contributed to this report.

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Myanmar’s rebels closing in around junta into fifth year of civil war 

Bangkok — Myanmar’s rebel groups made historic gains last year, the fourth of a civil war set off by a military coup in February 2021, seizing wide swathes of the country’s west and northeast and overrunning two of the regime’s regional command bases for the first time.

As the war enters its fifth bloody year Saturday, experts tell VOA the rebels are positioned to keep gaining ground in 2025, closing in on more cities and weapons factories vital to the military despite mounting efforts by China, which has billions of dollars invested in the country, to keep the junta afloat.

“The military has lost significant control, and in 2025, based on that trajectory over late 2023 and 2024 … it will still continue to lose control,” said Matthew Arnold, an independent analyst tracking the war.

A BBC World Service study found the junta in full control of only 21% of Myanmar as of mid-November, a patchwork of rebel groups holding 42% and both sides contesting the rest.

With the ground they gained over the past year, Arnold says the rebels have transformed the war by linking up what were mostly pockets of armed resistance into long stretches across the country which the military can no longer penetrate overland.

“The military does not face rebels in this valley or that valley, or this mountaintop or that mountaintop. They say these rebels can now attack us across hundreds and hundreds of miles of contiguous territory where they have absolutely full control,” he said. “It just fundamentally shifted the nature of warfare in the country.”

The rebels’ latest gains have not been even across the country.

In northeast Myanmar’s Shan state, China pressured one of the largest rebel groups in the area, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), into a ceasefire with the military in mid-January after the group had made major advances. Experts tell VOA that China has also started leaning on Myanmar’s largest rebel group, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), to cut back on weapons sales to other groups.

Both the MNDAA and UWSA keep close ties with Beijing, and while the latter are not fighting the Myanmar military themselves, they have been a major source of arms and ammunition for rebel groups that are.

Without their help, other groups have been forced to scale back their push toward Myanmar’s second largest city, Mandalay, which remains in junta control, says Min Zaw Oo, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

He said the squeeze on munitions has even helped the junta reverse gains another group, the Karenni National Defense Force, had been making in Kayah state, just south of Shan.

“They had to stop the offensive and they had to abandon, and now they are losing ground. One of the key factors was they … acquired less ammunition and weapons from UWSA,” said Min Zaw Oo.

Elsewhere, though, rebel groups have continued to press ahead, even defying Beijing’s interests.

In Myanmar’s far north, the capture of rare earth mines that supply China by the Kachin Independence Army in November compelled China to resume some of the border trade it had cut off to try and slow down the KIA’s march south, said Min Zaw Oo.

In the west, the Arakan Army (AA) has nearly completed its sweep across Rakhine state and surrounded an oil and gas terminal on the shores of the Bay of Bengal central to China’s energy projects in Myanmar.

Arnold and Min Zaw Oo say the AA is now pushing farther east with other allied groups into Ayeyarwady, Bago and Magwe regions in Myanmar’s center. Magwe, they add, with its many factories churning out weapons for the military, would be an especially big prize for the rebels and a painful loss for the junta if it were to fall next.

The military’s recent losses to the AA also highlight one of the military’s main problems, says Morgan Michaels of the U.K.’s International Institute for Strategic Studies — a lack of manpower.

Under pressure by rebel groups on nearly all sides, he said, the military could muster few reinforcements late last year as the AA bore down on its regional command base for western Myanmar, which it took, dealing the junta another heavy blow.

The junta began enforcing a dormant conscription law in April to bolster troop numbers being worn down by desertions, defections and battlefield losses, and toughened the rules earlier this month to try and cut down on draft dodgers.

“Basically, the military cannot respond to protect or … wage counter attacks at these very sensitive and important strategic areas because of the manpower issue,” said Michaels.

“Opposition forces have their own limitations,” he added. “But if the military can’t respond, then it’s going to bit by bit lose these areas.”

The rebels’ own problems, the experts say, include an ever-short supply of ammunition and limited strategic coordination between the groups — many fighting for territory for any one of the country’s myriad ethnic minorities — across the whole of the country.

Even so, they say they still expect most of the rebel groups in the fight to keep advancing on the junta into the year ahead.

Conflict data crunched by Michaels and his team at the International Institute for Strategic Studies show no letup in the overall level of violence. Estimates of civilians and soldiers killed in the fighting stretch into the tens of thousands. Over 3 million people have been displaced, and half the country now lives in poverty.

Bolstered by a steady stream of weapons and diplomatic cover from China and Russia, the experts also say the junta remains resilient but add that the collapse of a military battle-hardened by decades of counterinsurgency and once seen as all but invincible now looks plausible.

Much will depend on how much longer Beijing in particular believes the junta has a useful role to play in protecting China’s economic and strategic interests in the country, says Arnold.

“China’s very straightforward, they’re very logical in what they see,” he said. “And at some point, if the military doesn’t really stabilize the situation, China will have to make hard decisions about how much is it willing to support a military that is still losing control. And I think that will be the question for 2025.”

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Experts: Trump faces tough task to denuclearize North Korea 

washington — The White House says President Donald Trump is going to pursue the denuclearization of North Korea, although analysts say that is easier said than done.

White House National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes told VOA Korean via email this week that “President Trump had a good relationship with [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un,” and that Trump’s “mix of toughness and diplomacy led to the first-ever leader-level commitment to complete denuclearization.”

Trump and Kim met three times in 2018-19, in Singapore, Hanoi and over the inter-Korean border at Panmunjom.

Trump, who has recently called North Korea “a nuclear power,” said in an interview with Fox News last week that he would reach out to Kim again, adding, “He liked me, and I got along with him.”

Commitment to denuclearization

Former U.S. government officials say there is no doubt that Trump is serious about resuming talks with Kim.

Susan Thornton, a former senior U.S. diplomat for Asian affairs, told VOA Korean on Wednesday via email it “seems clear that President Trump plans to pick up where he left off with Kim Jong Un in his first administration.” 

 

Thornton, who was acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs during the first Trump administration, said Trump would “like to hold Kim and North Korea to the 2018 Singapore joint statement that included Kim’s commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”  

 

However, “much has changed since then, and Kim’s hand is stronger, so it won’t be easy,” Thornton said, referring to Pyongyang’s development of more advanced weapons.

The state-run Korean Central News Agency, or KCNA, reported Wednesday that Kim said it was “indispensable” to bolster nuclear forces, as North Korea continues to face “confrontations with the most vicious, hostile countries.”

Last Saturday, the North test-fired what it said were sea-to-surface strategic cruise-guided missiles. Kim, who inspected the test launch, said the country’s war deterrence means are “being perfected more thoroughly,” according to KCNA.

Evans Revere, former acting secretary for East Asia and Pacific affairs during the George W. Bush administration, told VOA Korean on the phone Wednesday that Kim would agree to come back to the table if he believed reengaging with Washington “could help him attain any of his own goals with respect to his nuclear and missile programs and relations with the United States.”

Revere is skeptical that any of Kim’s goals would include his regime’s denuclearization.

“The North Koreans might dangle the possibility of a discussion about denuclearization to attract the United States into a dialogue, but it would not be a serious proposal,” he said. “Quite frankly, they are determined to keep their weapons, keep their capabilities, which they regard as essential to their own existence.”

Daunting task

Frank Aum, a senior expert on North Korea at the U.S. Institute of Peace who worked at the Department of Defense from 2010 to 2017, said denuclearization is not a realistic goal to achieve in the near or medium term. 

 

“The best thing Trump can do to increase the odds of North Korea’s engagement is to resolve Russia’s war in Ukraine, which would decrease North Korea’s leverage and signal that a U.S. offer better than the one in Hanoi might be on the table,” Aum said in an email to VOA Korean.

North Korea has sent about 10,000 troops to Russia to help Moscow in its war against Ukraine. In return, North Korea has received military or financial assistance, according to U.S. and South Korean officials.

The February 2019 talks, in which Trump and Kim met for the second time, collapsed after Kim asked for full lifting of sanctions in exchange for the dismantling of the country’s main nuclear complex in Yongbyon, about 100 kilometers north of Pyongyang. Trump demanded more should be done on Kim’s end.

Aum said Kim would likely not have budged from his position then. 

 

“Trump may probe to see if he can get Kim to accept partial sanctions relief instead, like he tried at Hanoi, or offer more for Yongbyon,” Aum said. “It seems clear that Kim will not offer any more security concessions than Yongbyon.”

Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told VOA Korean via email on Wednesday that “for now, it is unlikely any meeting, if it takes place, will reasonably be related to denuclearization.”

“Trump will likely seek to keep the ultimate goal of denuclearization alive while exploring ways in which to reduce the threat,” Seiler said.

Referring to recent comments by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the failure of sanctions to halt the North Korean nuclear program, Seiler speculated that sanctions relief may be offered for significant steps in the new talks between Washington and Pyongyang.

Seiler added that military exercises and extended deterrence may also be reduced in terms of their frequency, volume and scale, in exchange for a halt or slowing of Kim’s long-range missile launches and nuclear tests.

In June 2018, Trump decided to suspend major military exercises with South Korea in an apparent gesture of good faith, right after his first meeting with Kim in Singapore. It raised some fears among South Koreans that such a move could weaken defense against the North.

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Economic hardship affects Lunar New Year celebrations in China

TAIPEI, TAIWAN — The Lunar New Year, also called the Chinese New Year or the Spring Festival in China, is traditionally celebrated with tables piled with food and red envelopes filled with cash for children.

In past years, smoke from outdoor fire pits filled the air throughout the morning and afternoon, as people burned paper money to ensure that even the ancestors can feel the financial boon that the biggest holiday of the year usually brings to the living.

In recent years, however, China’s economic slowdown has altered the atmosphere of Chinese New Year. Facing increasing financial burdens, young people are reexamining long-held traditions as they welcome the Year of the Snake, opting for more frugal alternatives during this year’s eight-day-long national holiday.

A 30-year-old legal worker from Shanghai, who did not want to use his name for fear of reprisal, told VOA that stores selling trinkets and supplies for the holiday appeared unusually deserted.

He said people appear to be forgoing large purchases, which manifests mostly in the custom of giving money-filled red envelopes — the color symbolizes good luck and prosperity in the new year.

“As with goods purchased for the new year, red envelopes have become more simple and less thick,” the Shanghai resident said.

He told VOA he usually gives his niece an envelope with around $140 inside, but this year, he plans to give her $90.

Talk on social media

Frustration with the economy is being expressed on social media — young people are saturating online threads with images and comments describing the pressure and criticism they will encounter during the holiday.

An account on RedNote called “I don’t give a damn about the banana” posted a series of funny images detailing the levels of anxiety young, unmarried and unemployed people will face during the holiday.

“You haven’t earned any money but you still have to give the younger kids a red envelope,” the user wrote, over a picture of a woman giving a small bill to a cat.

Many others offer advice to ease fears of being scrutinized by the family.

“Unique-me” wrote on the Chinese social media platform Weibo: “Now the economy is not good, it’s good to just have an income. If you are in a difficult situation, you can admit that you don’t make much. There is no need to be generous. Just show your appreciation. Those who have opinions about you because of the size of your red envelope, let them have opinions.”

Faced with economic woes, some local governments are advocating frugality. Baise City, Guangxi, suggested that the amount of money in a red envelope should not exceed $3.

The initiative also encourages the younger generation to give their elders “blessing gifts” with commemorative significance or emotional value instead of red envelopes.

This move has attracted widespread attention, with many social media users expressing their support for the program’s positive impact on financial and mental health. Some suggested that blessing gifting be promoted nationwide.

Workplace anxiety

The size of red envelopes exchanged in the workplace and increasing leniency on new year vacation day allowances have stoked fears of job insecurity among employees.

“The economic downturn is not only reflected in my meager salary, but also in the red envelopes given by the boss every year,” “Life with Greed” said on Weibo.

A user called “Let’s try to be happy” commented on Weibo: “My company is in a slump. New Year gifts have not been issued. In previous years, the maximum New Year holiday was 20 days, but this year it was more than a month. I don’t know what it will be like next year. It feels like it is on the verge of bankruptcy.”

A 39-year-old government worker in Dalian, who spoke to VOA on the condition of anonymity because of security fears, said despite having a family and a stable job, she will limit her holiday spending.

“We have to reduce some unnecessary expenses, such as buying less candy and snacks, and we try to buy simple things outside when worshiping,” the wife and mother said.

The changes in Chinese Spring Festival customs are affected by many factors, but the economy is most critical, said Sun Guoxiang, a professor in the international affairs and business department at Nanhua University in Taiwan.

“The economic downturn has led to a decline in consumption capacity. Young people pay more attention to rational consumption and actual needs, which reduces the relatively high-cost parts of traditional Spring Festival customs,” Sun said, adding that pressure from family about issues that include work, marriage and education cannot be ignored as drivers of this trend.

He said the future of Chinese New Year and how it will be celebrated will depend heavily on China’s development and whether the country can overcome its current economic decline.

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Philippine president offers deal to China: Stop sea aggression and I’ll return missiles to US

MANILA — Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. offered on Thursday to remove a U.S. missile system from the Philippines if China halts what he called its “aggressive and coercive behavior” in the disputed South China Sea. 

The U.S. Army installed the Typhon mid-range missile system in the northern Philippines in April last year to support what the longtime treaty allies described as training for joint combat readiness. 

China has repeatedly demanded that the Philippines remove the missile system, saying it was “inciting geopolitical confrontation and an arms race.” 

Asked by reporters about China’s criticism of the missile system, Marcos said he did not understand the Chinese position because the Philippines does not comment on China’s missile systems which “are a thousand times more powerful than what we have.” 

“Let’s make a deal with China: Stop claiming our territory, stop harassing our fishermen and let them have a living, stop ramming our boats, stop water cannoning our people, stop firing lasers at us and stop your aggressive and coercive behavior, and we’ll return the typhoon missiles,” Marcos told reporters in central Cebu province. 

“Let them stop everything they’re doing and I’ll return all of those,” he said. 

Chinese officials did not immediately comment on the Philippine leader’s remarks. 

The U.S. Army’s mobile Typhon missile system, which consists of a launcher and at least 16 Standard Missile-6 and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, was repositioned about two weeks ago from the northern Philippines to a strategic area nearer the capital, Manila, in consultation with Philippine defense officials, a senior Philippine official told The Associated Press. 

The Philippine official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of a lack of authority to discuss the sensitive issue in public, said the U.S. missile system is now nearer an area where Chinese and Philippine coast guard and navy forces have been involved in increasingly tense faceoffs in the South China Sea. 

Tomahawk missiles can travel over 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers), which puts parts of mainland China within their range. The missile system will remain in the Philippines indefinitely, the Philippine official said. 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said last week that the Philippines is “creating tensions and antagonism in the region and inciting geopolitical confrontation and an arms race” by allowing the U.S. missile system to be positioned in its territory. 

“This is a highly dangerous move and an extremely irresponsible choice,” Mao said. 

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro has rejected China’s demand that the missile system be removed as interference in Philippine internal affairs. 

The U.S. and the Philippines have repeatedly condemned China’s increasingly assertive actions to press its territorial claims in the South China Sea, where hostilities have flared over the past two years with repeated clashes between Chinese and Philippine coast guard forces and accompanying vessels. 

Aside from China and the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have overlapping claims in the busy waterway, a key shipping route which is also believed to be sitting atop large undersea deposits of gas and oil.

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Chinese app shakes up AI race

A small Chinese company sent shockwaves around the tech world this week with news that it has created a high-performing artificial intelligence system with less computing power and at a lower cost than ones made by U.S. tech giants. Michelle Quinn reports.

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