WASHINGTON — Taiwan’s former President Ma Ying-jeou is scheduled to make an 11-day trip to China in early April.

The trip will include stops in the southern city of Guangdong, the northwestern province of Shaanxi, and the capital Beijing, where Ma, according to reports, may meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Some experts say that if the meeting happens, not only can Xi use it to send signals to Taiwan and the United States, but it could help Washington learn more about Xi’s intentions toward the island.

Earlier this week, Ma’s office announced that the visit will begin on April 1. The trip will include a speech at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangdong, a worshiping ceremony for the Yellow Emperor at the Shaanxi Huangdi Mausoleum, and a speech at Peking University.

Taiwanese online news site The Storm Media reported that the meeting between Ma and Xi will be held on April 8. However, Hsiao Hsu-tsen, director of Ma Ying-jeou Culture and Education Foundation, said in a radio interview on March 26 that the itinerary ­has not been finalized.

Lu-chung Weng, an associate professor of political science at Sam Houston State University, told VOA Mandarin in an emailed response that if Ma and Xi really meet, Xi will probably use this occasion to emphasize Beijing’s one-China principle and that the 1992 Consensus remains the basis for cross-strait exchanges and dialogues.

“The signal Xi wants to send to both sides of the Taiwan Strait would be to emphasize that peaceful reunification is still Beijing’s priority and that anyone who accepts the one-China principle can negotiate,” he said.

“Relatively speaking, it also highlights that if President-elect Lai Ching-te insists on not accepting the 1992 Consensus as the premise of one China in his inaugural speech on May 20, it will be difficult for the two sides to have a dialogue. In other words, Xi would use Ma to emphasize that the ‘1992 Consensus’ is the basis for exchanges,” he added.

Although Ma accepted the “1992 Consensus” while he was in office, the current President Tsai Ing-wen did not, and China rolled back tourism and other exchanges in response. Lai, who is from the same party as Tsai, is expected to follow in her footsteps.

For some, the “1992 Consensus” is the same as accepting Beijing’s position that democratically ruled Taiwan is a part of China. Others believe it can be interpreted as meaning that there’s one China, with both the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China, Taiwan’s official name, free to define what that means.

Weng said that during the meeting, Xi may also respond to recent U.S. concerns about China’s possible invasion of Taiwan in 2027. U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that Beijing has ordered its military to be prepared by that year to invade Taiwan.

Adm. John Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said during a congressional hearing last week that despite China’s economic slowdown, the People’s Liberation Army is still actively modernizing its military. He said all signs show the People’s Liberation Army is following Xi’s instructions to “prepare to invade Taiwan by 2027.”

Weng said a Ma-Xi meeting will be an opportunity to gain more insight into Beijing’s plans for Taiwan.

“If Xi really meets former President Ma, the U.S. can be sure that Xi’s challenges are indeed not small,” Weng said. “It will also send a signal that he will be focused more on ‘peaceful reunification,’ and that he will not take action in the short term.”

This does not mean China will not change its path in the future, he added, but at least for now “the U.S. can use the Ma-Xi meeting to determine that there is still time to prepare in the short term.”

Ma’s trip to China comes just weeks before the inauguration of Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te. Lai’s inauguration will be held on May 20 and many will be watching his speech for signs of how he will approach relations with China.

Chiaoning Su, a professor at the School of Communication at Oakland University in Michigan, told VOA Mandarin that while Lai’s inaugural speech will give priority to domestic affairs, relations with China will inevitably come up.

“Lai Ching-te has repeatedly said that he will continue Tsai Ing-wen’s framework, so both sides of the Taiwan Strait welcome closer dialogue and exchanges on the premise of equality and dignity, and that he does not want any conflicts to occur,” she said.

Lai “will maintain this tone and make some pledges regarding his cross-strait policies.”

Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
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Bangkok — Thailand’s lower house passed a same-sex marriage bill Wednesday, as the country inches towards becoming the first Southeast Asian nation to recognize LGBTQ nuptials, a seismic legal shift lauded as a “fantastic first step” towards full gender parity.

The measure comfortably passed – 399 for to 10 against in the elected House of Representatives – some of whom waved rainbow flags during the landmark vote. To become law, it now has to be approved by the unelected upper chamber, the Senate, and then receive a royal assent. 

Once the law is passed, Thailand will join only Nepal and Taiwan in Asia in recognizing same-sex marriage.

Gay rights advocates say the progress after years of false starts shows Thailand’s changing cultural space and offers the country up as a legal sanctuary in Asia, where gay rights are virtually non-existent in many Muslim-majority and Communist-led nations.

“The repercussions are huge. My friends have spoken about feeling unshackled from their place as second-class citizens,” Paron Mead, 39, a Thai-British LGBTQ artist told VOA.

“We are thinking of the enormous number of queer people in Asia who have their eyes on Thailand as we navigate what this marriage bill leads to, both legally and culturally. This will undoubtedly help millions of queer people both in and out of Thailand feel a little safer.”

The government of Srettha Thavisin has prioritized the marriage equality bill seeing its potential to bring a ‘soft power’ win to Thailand, including potentially a boost in LGBTQ tourism.

But the bill is also a popular progressive win for his administration after it was criticized for allying with conservative hardliners who have blocked many other structural reforms to take power after an election last year.

Thailand has long had a reputation as a safe place for LGBTQ people to visit and live, despite the law failing to keep up shifting social attitudes towards gender.

The law was specifically amended within the Civil and Commercial Code, a piece of legislation that has proven notoriously hard to rewrite. 

“We’re making the impossible possible,” said Nada Chaiyajit, a transgender woman law lecturer and an advisor to the commission tasked with amending the Marriage Equality Law.

“We’ve come so far to demand rights for same sex couples, laying groundwork for the society including removing all the discriminatory terms towards women from the existing law, adding provisions to protect individuals.”

While the bill has practical outcomes such as inheritance, tax breaks and medical power of attorney for married LGBTQ couples, it says same sex couples who adopt children under the law cannot be called “parents” but instead must still use the gender specific terms “father” and “mother.”

“Passing the law is a fantastic first step,” said Aitarnik Chitwiset, who was an advisor to the panel which drafted the same sex marriage bill. “But it’s just a first step.”

Recognizing the lingering unease among some conservative parts of Thai society – including the country’s Muslim population – a spokesperson for the Pheu Thai party which leads the governing coalition, moved to reassure heterosexual couples will not be “deprived” of their legal rights.

Instead, it aims to it fix long standing injustice towards LGBTQ Thais, Danuporn Punnakan, of the Pheu Thai Party, who chairs the Same-sex Marriage Committee told parliament.

“I invite you all [members of parliament] to create a new chapter in Thai history together.”

After years of rejection by governments dominated by conservative elders, LGBTQ advocates say the law change will signal a new dawn for equality.

“We are in debt to the cultural leaders… who have fought for this reality,” Mead added.

“To empower anyone to love wholeheartedly is one of the simplest things we can do to shape a more peaceful world.”
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Bangkok — Since Thaksin Shinawatra’s late-February parole from a police hospital in Bangkok, public support for Thailand’s former prime minister has been evident.

The 74-year-old received a hero’s welcome Tuesday when he visited the headquarters of Pheu Thai, the party he founded, which now leads Thailand’s government.

But his return to Thailand after 16 years in self-imposed exile has only added to questions about how much political power Thaksin now holds.

Pheu Thai lawmakers have insisted Thaksin’s appearance at party headquarters — which follows a visit to his hometown of Chiang Mai, where he was also mobbed by supporters — has no political significance.

Experts, however, say the mere fact of his renewed presence puts him in a position of political influence.

“Thaksin has been making sure he won’t simply become obscure by making a high-profile visit to Chiang Mai, which attracted widespread reporting by the Thai press,” Pravit Rojanaphruk, a veteran journalist and political analyst, told VOA.

“Given Thaksin’s persistent popularity … and the fact that his daughter [Paetongtarn Shinawatra] heads the ruling Pheu Thai party, it seems [Prime Minister] Srettha [Thavisin] will have to quickly prove his worth by delivering results that [are] visible to the voters, he said.

“Otherwise, the risk of him being replaced by Paetongtarn will be high,” Pravit added. “As for Thaksin: he’s clearly playing the role of kingmaker if not chairman of the current administration, with more influence than the PM himself.”

A popular but divisive figure in Thailand, Thaksin served as prime minister from 2001 through 2006, when he was ousted by a military coup. Faced with charges of corruption and tax evasion, he fled into exile in 2008.

Changing political landscape

While the billionaire businessman’s Pheu Thai movement championed an ideology of populism, reform and opposition to military rule, those same values made Thaksin unpopular with Thailand’s upper class and royalists.

Nearly two decades on, the Southeast Asian country’s political landscape has changed. Thaksin’s return in August coincided with Pheu Thai’s return to governance, with Srettha as the kingdom’s 30th prime minister.

Still subject to eight years in prison when he returned, Thaksin received a royal pardon that reduced his sentence to a year, triggering speculation among some observers that a secret deal would allow for his political rehabilitation amid Pheu Thai’s return to power.

Thaksin’s permanent transfer to Bangkok’s Police General Hospital just hours into his sentence — unspecified health issues were cited by officials — spurred additional rumors of a political arrangement.

Thaksin’s activities have already been followed closely by the press since he was paroled from the hospital last month. He has already received a visit from former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, who passed power to his son Hun Manet last year.

Napon Jatusripitak, a political scientist at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singapore-based think-tank, believes Thaksin is aiming to expand his base in Thailand’s political landscape.

“I think Thaksin is sending a clear and unmistakable signal that the Shinawatra political machine is not only up and running again, but also in a position, now more than ever, to influence the direction of this government, especially in its dealings with Cambodia,” he told VOA.

“This is most likely geared towards reconsolidating his political base, among both actors in the government and in the electorate, after Pheu Thai’s poor election performance and betrayal of its supporters’ mandate,” Napon added.

Following elections last year, Pheu Thai formed a coalition that includes rival military parties, drawing criticism from supporters.

Thaksin’s influence could also stifle the rise of the reformist Move Forward Party, which won the most votes in the general election but was blocked by the Senate from leading the government because of its pledge to amend a law that criminalizes criticism of the monarchy.

“If he fails to serve as an effective buffer for the conservative establishment against the Move Forward Party, he’ll no longer be needed as an ally,” Napon said.

Despite Thaksin’s popularity and importance to Pheu Thai, not everyone is happy with the Thai tycoon. Dozens of demonstrators protested his parole when they gathered at a makeshift rally point outside of Thailand’s Government House last month.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University, wrote that Thaksin’s influence is not what it was.

“Mr. Thaksin’s hand in politics is weaker than it used to be,” Thitinan wrote in an op-ed for the Bangkok Post.

Calling Move Forward’s electoral wins “an unprecedented defeat” for Pheu Thai, which had dominated elections for the last two decades, Thitinan said Move Forward’s rise is evidence of Thaksin’s age and waning influence.

The Shinawatra family, he suggested, now has less of a monolithically top-down structure and is limited to exercising influence and power only in collaboration with others. 

But Thaksin’s reappearance on the political scene could squeeze Prime Minister Srettha, a former finance minister who Thitinan says is “beholden to Thaksin” and under “pressure to perform” as he guides Thailand’s economy, which unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter of 2023.

 
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washington — Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Energy announced a record conditional loan of $2.26 billion to tap the largest known lithium reserves in North America. The loan is an important step in an effort by the U.S. government to reduce reliance on China for the metal used to make batteries.

Analysts, however, say that it may be too late to move away from reliance on China completely when it comes to metal processing and the production of batteries.

The DOE’s Loan Programs Office (LPO) says the funds, if approved after review, will help the Lithium Americas Corp. construct a lithium carbonate processing plant at the Thacker Pass mine project in Humboldt County, Nevada.

The LPO says the project would help “secure reliable, sustainable domestic supply chains for critical materials, which are key to reaching our ambitious clean energy and climate goals and reducing our reliance on economic competitors like China.”

Lithium Americas Corp. on its official website says battery materials could be “completely sourced and manufactured in the U.S., bringing down the overall carbon footprint, transport costs and supply chain risks.”

The LPO says lithium carbonate from Thacker Pass could eventually support the production of batteries “for up to 800,000 electric vehicles (EVs) per year, saving 317 million gallons of gasoline per year.”

Although the U.S. has made pioneering and groundbreaking contributions to the development of the lithium ion battery, industry experts say lithium processing and EV battery production is dominated today by China.

“Parts of our key supply chains, including for clean energy, are currently over concentrated in China,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in prepared remarks March 2 when she visited a U.S. lithium processing facility in Chile, which holds the world’s largest reserves of the metal.

“This makes America more vulnerable to shocks in China, or whatever country dominates production, from natural disasters to macroeconomic forces, to deliberate actions such as economic coercion.”

A report last year by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said China increased restrictions on its exports of critical minerals ninefold between 2009 and 2020.

Data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows the output and scale of lithium mines in Australia and Argentina far exceed China’s. In 2022, Australia’s lithium mine output was more than three times China’s.

Refining, processing still issues

But industry experts say while Western countries have poured a lot of investment into developing raw minerals, they have paid little attention to refining and processing, areas in which China dominates.

Ellen R. Wald, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, tells VOA, “Lithium is not useful just as it is. You have to refine it to make what’s used in the batteries. And that’s really where China controls the supply chain because almost all of the refining for lithium that creates it into the substance that can be used to make batteries is done in China.”

According to the Chatham House, Chinese companies accounted for about 72% of global lithium refining capacity in 2022.

China also dominates much of the global market for battery-related equipment, leaving limited options for U.S. companies that want to showcase their domestic production credentials.

American Battery Factory Inc., or ABF, is an emerging battery manufacturer that says it is “the first network of entirely U.S.-owned vertical manufacturing, supply chain and R&D for Lithium Iron Phosphate battery cells in the United States.”

But to secure custom automation equipment and machinery for use in its first large-scale rechargeable battery factory in Tucson, Arizona, it has formed a partnership with Lead Intelligent Equipment, a Chinese company.

Dependent on China

In an article in January, Wald said China is in a good position to restrict access to lithium-ion batteries to certain countries or companies as it wishes, and if the U.S. military suddenly finds itself in need of more specialized batteries, the Pentagon may not be able to obtain them.

In February 2022, China announced sanctions against Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-35 fighter jet, and Raytheon Technologies, the world’s largest missile manufacturer. Although China did not specify the details of the sanctions, it is generally considered to be a possible threat to cut off the Western countries’ supply of critical minerals.

Wald told VOA, “The U.S. defense industry is basically dependent on China for these specialized batteries that they need in all of their drones and their surveillance systems and all sorts of things.”

David Whittle, adjunct professor in resource engineering at the Department of Civil Engineering at Monash University in Australia, told VOA even if “the world develops a robust, independent supply chain for lithium, up to the point of battery chemical production, at present, China would still be the largest customer for those chemicals, since it is the largest cell manufacturer, the largest battery pack manufacturer, the largest E.V. manufacturer and the largest market for E.V.s.”

The Thacker Pass lithium mine is located at the southern end of the McDermitt Caldera, and is considered to be one of the largest in the world.

The record loan to Lithium Americas Corp. is the largest such loan the U.S. has offered for the development of a lithium mine project since the country stepped up its efforts to build a domestic supply chain for critical minerals in recent years.

The Thacker Pass lithium project is not expected to start production until 2028, and even then, Wald said, that goal may be too ambitious. The mine plans to extract lithium from clay, but Wald says it has never been mined in this way on a commercial scale. In addition, the mine is in a remote and sparsely populated location, requiring the company to build housing for workers and their families and to reassess its environmental impact.

Despite the challenges, Wald said creating a secure supply chain is not impossible for the U.S.

“I don’t think it’s too late,” Wald said. “Will they be able to compete with China globally? Probably not. But can we create non-Chinese sustainable and secure supply chains? Yeah, we can do it.”

Whittle said Western countries being “resilient to challenges from China” can’t mean “isolated from China” anymore, but resilience is still possible.

The DOE’s LPO said while their announcement shows intent to give the loan, the company must first satisfy certain technical, legal, environmental and financial conditions before the funds will be released.

Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
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FRANKFURT/BERLIN — A fresh pledge by Beijing to treat foreign companies like domestic rivals drew a cool response from one of its biggest trading partners, Germany, where industries called for concrete actions rather than words to create a true level-playing field.

Germany’s engagement in the world’s No.2 economy has been in focus, partly because China remains its biggest trading partner but also because Berlin has asked companies to diversify away from what it calls “partner, competitor and systemic rival.”

Beijing’s efforts to make sure international companies stay engaged come as inbound foreign direct investment shrank by 8% in 2023, partly a result of broader anti-espionage laws, exit bans and raids on consultancies and due diligence firms.

German direct investment in China, however, rose to a record high of 11.9 billion euros ($12.9 billion) last year, underscoring how relevant the market remains despite efforts to reduce exposure.

In a bid to attract more foreign money, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Guo Tingting told the China Development Forum in Beijing that the country would “fully guarantee national treatment for foreign companies,” without elaborating further.

“We are seeing more and more of what I’ll call friendly signals,” said Oliver Wack, Asia expert at German engineering association VDMA, which represents heavyweights including Siemens and Thyssenkrupp.

“But in terms of content, this is not exactly earth-shattering.”

More than words?

Wack said efforts by Beijing included a Dec. 12 meeting with the head of economics at China’s consulate general in Frankfurt who asked what had to be done to encourage more of the VDMA’s members to invest in China.

As part of a series of events this week in the Chinese capital with foreign companies, the Ministry of Commerce will hold the Invest in China Summit 2024 on Tuesday, where Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla and AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot are due to speak, according to a schedule.

AstraZeneca declined to comment, and Pfizer confirmed Bourla is attending the China Development Forum and speaking on a panel at the Invest in China Summit but declined to comment further.

The Wall Street Journal separately reported that Chinese leader Xi Jinping plans to meet a group of U.S. business leaders this week after the forum as Beijing steps up efforts to woo American firms amid an exodus of foreign capital.

VDMA’s Wack said to make effective changes China should join the World Trade Organization’s Government Procurement Agreement and the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Both would be tangible steps to create equality among companies.

Dirk Jandura, president of the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services, also poured cold water on hopes that the latest Chinese push would really change things.

“We are familiar with these kind of promises. Unfortunately, in the past, it has often remained just words, or changes have been made in small steps … The extent to which foreign entrepreneurs can make a contribution here — remains unclear.”
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sydney — New Zealand said Monday a free trade agreement with the European Union would come into effect on May 1, after the country’s parliament ratified the deal.

New Zealand notified the European Union it ratified the agreement earlier on Monday, Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay said in a statement.

Wellington and Brussels signed the deal in July 2023, with the European Parliament ratifying its side of the agreement in November.

New Zealand expects the deal to benefit its beef, lamb, butter and cheese industries, as well as removing tariffs on other exports like its iconic kiwi fruit.

The EU will see tariffs lifted on its exports including clothing, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and cars, as well as wine and confections.

The EU is New Zealand’s fourth-largest trade partner, according to government data, with two-way goods and services trade worth $12.10 billion in 2022.
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Ho Chi Min City/Washington — Analysts say this month’s resignation of Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong, one year into his five-year term, indicates infighting within the Communist Party and shakes the country’s reputation for political stability, a key driver of foreign investment. 

On March 20, the party’s Central Committee held an extraordinary session in which it agreed to allow Thuong to give up the presidency and all official duties. Thuong’s resignation comes amid an anti-corruption drive led by the party’s leader, 79-year-old General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong.

The office of the Party Central Committee said in a written statement that day that an investigation from the Central Inspection Commission revealed that Thuong had committed violations of party regulations.  

Nguyen Khac Giang, visiting fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute,  told VOA March 23 that the government’s statement on Thuong’s dismissal is vague but many suspect his resignation is connected to his time serving as party secretary of Quang Ngai province from 2011 to 2014.

On March 8, the province’s chairman, Dang Van Minh, and former chairman Cao Khoa were arrested in relation to an ongoing investigation into Phuc Son real estate group. According to government statements, police found that the real estate firm had committed acts of forgery, perjury, and selective bookkeeping which caused $26 million in losses to the state budget.

“Thuong served as a party secretary at that time so those are linked together and people allege that probably Thuong was forced to step down because of that,” Giang said.

Succession struggle

Giang added that Thuong’s resignation is an “extremely rare and surprising incident” particularly because he is the second president to step down in less than two years.

Thuong’s predecessor, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, was forced to give up the role in January 2023. Phuc’s downfall is believed to have been due to his alleged connection to the inflation of COVID-19 test kit prices. 

“One man was brought down in the anti-corruption campaign and the next man that was brought in to replace that position … one year later he was forced out for the same reason,” Giang said of the two presidents. 

“This doesn’t sound really good for the party’s organization and for the party’s image as the protector of stability,” he said.

Florian Feyerabend, the Vietnam representative of German political foundation Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung, struck a similar chord, telling VOA that Phuc and Thuong’s successions in such a short time “raises unavoidably questions about the predictability, reliability, and inner workings of the system.”

“While the system as such remains stable, the internal balance of power seems to be in limbo ahead of the next party congress,” he said. 

The timing of Thuong’s resignation is significant, experts said, as it comes ahead of planned  changes to the country’s top echelon of leadership at the 14th National Congress in 2026.

Carl Thayer, emeritus professor with the University of New South Wales in Australia, said Thuong’s resignation would have the effect of speeding the process of selecting candidates for the new Central Committee and “exposing differences within the leadership.”

At 54 years old, Thuong was the youngest member of the Politburo and considered to be a potential candidate for the leading position of general secretary.

“[Thuong] was clearly going for something larger. … There were reasons to believe that he might be an appealing choice for a party increasingly out of touch with the younger generation,” Zachary Abuza, Southeast Asia expert and professor at the National War College in Washington, told VOA on March 20.

“It was a pretty spectacular fall,” Abuza said.

Although it is unclear what political motivations led to Thuong’s downfall, Abuza said that Public Security Minister To Lam appears to be vying for the country’s most powerful position. Are we talking president or general secretary here?

“We still don’t know who wanted to take [Thuong] down,” Abuza said. “All eyes are on the minister of public security because he has been pretty ruthless in taking down rivals. He clearly eyes the top job for himself.”

Thayer told VOA that the two likely candidates to succeed Thuong are Lam and Truong Thi Mai, head of the Central Committee’s Organization Commission. He said that the fact that the case has surfaced after 12 years “leads to the supposition” that Lam is getting rid of possible rivals in an attempt to stay in power after the 2026 party congress. 

Duy Hoang, executive director of Viet Tan, an unsanctioned political party that promotes democracy in Vietnam, also said he sees Thuong’s fall as a result of a power struggle.

“This is probably a proxy war for who’s going to be the leader of the Communist Party in the foreseeable future,” he told VOA on March 20. 

Economic challenges

The political shake-up poses a threat to the country’s economy, Abuza said. Along with the two presidents and high-profile arrests in the private sector, officials including a deputy prime minister, two ministers, and more than a dozen provincial leaders have also been dismissed since 2021.

“For a country that prides itself on political stability as one of its key selling points to foreign investors, it sure isn’t looking very stable,” Abuza said.

Feyerabend also said that political stability is important among the factors that make Vietnam attractive for foreign direct investment. He said, though, that recent political events do not immediately affect the overall stability of Vietnam’s political system or its attractiveness for foreign direct investment.

Hoang of Viet Tan pointed to concerns for the livelihoods of the country’s more than 100 million citizens.

“I think it’s going to affect people’s lives because there’ll be economic disruption,” Hoang said. He added that corruption is endemic in Vietnam but due to the anti-corruption campaign many officials are “concerned that they are going to be drawn into the blazing furnace.” General Secretary Trong has described his anti-graft campaign as a “blazing furnace.”

“Permitting decisions are being dragged out and people can’t make decisions,” Hoang said. “Things are so frozen because of this power struggle.”

Still, Giang at ISEAS said there is room for optimism. He said foreign direct investment is the country’s key economic engine and remains the Communist Party’s priority.

“We’ll muddle through the current uncertainty and we’ll continue to perform well no matter who’s in charge,” he said. “Vietnam still wants to maintain … high sustainable economic growth, political stability, and balancing well between China and the U.S. no matter which factions or people are in charge.”

Linh Dan of VOA’s Vietnamese Service reported from Washington.
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HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM — Experts and activists are voicing concern over a purported internal Vietnamese Politburo directive, which they say could worsen already deteriorating human rights and the toll on the economy caused by increased scrutiny of foreign companies. 

The 88 Project, a U.S.-based nonprofit focusing on human rights in Vietnam, disclosed the document, entitled Directive 24, which it said orders government agencies to increase media censorship, crack down on civil society, increase surveillance of Vietnamese citizens, and quell the influence of outside powers and foreign businesses operating in the country. 

The rights group published its analysis along with the English translation of the directive on March 1.

Vietnam’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, in a March 19 response to a query from VOA’s Vietnamese service, did not address the document specifically, but expressed its opposition to “false information” aimed maliciously at Vietnam, which it called interference in internal Vietnamese affairs.

The document is dated July 13, 2023, and its stated goal is to ensure “national security in the context of comprehensive and deep international integration.” 

It orders government ministries to closely monitor Vietnamese who travel and study abroad, and to stop the formation of independent political movements, labor organizations, and protests. It also states the need for heightened surveillance and awareness to prevent national security threats, including ideological shifts and cultural erosion that it asserts could be caused by closer ties with outside nations.  

Tran Anh Quan, a Ho Chi Minh City-based social activist, told VOA March 13 that he believes the directive will further degrade the rights of Vietnamese citizens.  

“Directive 24 is a springboard for the police force to use force to suppress people more strongly,” he wrote in Vietnamese via the messaging app Telegram. “The Communist Party is determined to eliminate human rights in Vietnam.”  

Zachary Abuza, Southeast Asia expert and professor at the National War College in Washington, told VOA the same day that the crackdown on civil society is not novel for the regime. But, he said, portraying foreign enterprises and the tens of thousands of Vietnamese studying abroad as a threat is a turn for Hanoi. 

While the government’s ability to closely monitor Vietnamese traveling and living abroad is limited, Abuza said he worries the increased surveillance of foreign businesses could hinder the economy. 

“Vietnam’s security and economic growth is completely dependent on internationalization,” he said. “They really, really need to be doing whatever they can to make foreign investments. … Yet they’re sending completely the wrong signal.” 

Moving toward Beijing’s treatment of enterprises 

Abuza said he sees the message in the directive as moving closer to Beijing’s treatment of foreign enterprises, which could be a hindrance to the flow of capital into Vietnam as corporations look to “de-risk” from China. 

“For them to put into writing and say these firms need to be carefully watched and managed, so that they do not foment any color revolution – to me that is something that clearly shows China’s influence. I’ve never seen that in a Vietnamese document,” he said. 

The directive orders government entities to be wary of foreign investors that “’hide in the shadows,’ take over domestic markets and businesses and occupy vital economic sectors, while holding influential positions in defense and security that adversely affects our independence, economic autonomy and political stability.” 

Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh, a Vietnamese activist known by her pen name Mother Mushroom, told VOA March 14 that it is not a coincidence that Hanoi issued Directive 24 in July, roughly three months before it upgraded ties with Washington to the highest level in its diplomatic hierarchy. 

She said Hanoi sees closer ties with the United States and other countries as the best means to improve the economy but also as the potential downfall of the Communist Party.  

“Directive 24 is just to protect the communists,” she said from Texas, where she has been living since she was allowed to travel to the United States in 2018 after being jailed in Vietnam on anti-state charges. “The government is very afraid of civil society, especially when the connection between Vietnam and the U.S. changed.” 

Human rights 

Phil Robertson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Asia Division, told VOA in a March 13 email that implementation of the directive is well underway and is the clearest evidence to date that the Communist Party sees human rights as a threat to its hold on power.  

“The human rights and democracy activist movement has been essentially wiped out, leaving only the relatives of those imprisoned to commiserate and organize solidarity for one another, and even those actions are coming under hostile scrutiny by the state,” Robertson wrote. 

He added that individuals with no history of political activism are being arrested for complaining online about local government. 

Quynh, the activist, also stated that people in Vietnam are fearful and the government is going after people she knows who were involved in early civil society movements approximately a decade ago but have not been open critics of the government. 

“People now are more scared,” she said. “It looks like we are back to zero on the steps to democracy.”  

Despite the clampdown, Ho Chi Minh City-based Quan said the worsening environment for human rights may lead to future political movements. 

“When people are oppressed to the extreme, there will inevitably be resistance,” he said. “People may not talk about politics in the short term, but in the long term there will be many protests that the authorities cannot predict.” 

‘False and fabricated information’ 

In its statement to VOA, Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson said the ministry opposes “false and fabricated information with malicious intentions aimed at Viet Nam,” which it called “an interference in Viet Nam’s internal affairs, plotting to sabotage Viet Nam’s socio-economic development and separating Viet Nam from the international community.” 

The consistent line of Vietnam and its Communist Party, the statement said, is that Vietnam “continues to proactively engage in a comprehensive and extensive international integration as a responsible member of the international community” and is committed to its international commitments, including those in trade and human rights.” 

“Taking account of the complicated developments of the world and the region, Viet Nam has issued various documents and conducted different measures to strengthen its national security, including close coordination with other countries with a view to safeguarding national security, human security, and to ensuring the peaceful and happy life of the people,” the statement said. 

VOA’s Vietnamese Service contributed to this report.
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Sydney — Australia and the United Kingdom signed a new defense and security cooperation agreement Thursday that deepens the strategic relationship between the two nations, makes it easier for their defense forces to operate together in each other’s countries, and boosts a fledgling nuclear-powered submarine program with the United States.

Australia has said the new security and defense treaty updates its longstanding relationship with Britain “to meet contemporary challenges.”

Australia Defense Minister Richard Marles said in a statement that as “the world becomes more complex and uncertain, we must modernize our most important relationships.”

The new accord signed Thursday builds on the 2021 AUKUS alliance, which is designed to allow Australia to build a new multibillion-dollar fleet of nuclear-powered submarines with help from the United States and Britain.

Marles later told reporters in Canberra that a far-reaching pact with Britain was fundamental to Australia’s national security.

“It does reflect a relationship that has become much more strategic, a relationship which has a much bigger national security dimension,” he said. “To that end, the U.K. has a much greater presence in the Indo-Pacific than we have seen in a very long time. We also spoke today about AUKUS, which is, perhaps, at the heart of the contemporary strategic relationship between our two countries.”

Britain’s defense minister, Grant Shapps, is in Australia for the annual Australia-U.K. Ministerial (AUKMIN) meetings, which were first held in 2006. Officials said bilateral talks would also include support for Ukraine, peace in the Middle East, gender-based violence in the Pacific, climate change and trade.

The defense treaty signed Thursday includes provisions to make it easier for Australian and British forces to work together in each other’s countries, much like the joint training of Ukrainian troops in Britain. There will also be closer collaboration on undersea warfare, intelligence and military exercises.

Shapps told a news conference in Canberra that the treaty would enhance global efforts to maintain peace.

“We stand shoulder-to-shoulder in all of these many, many different ways, and the thing which has struck me most in my first few hours with you here today is the extent to which distance is absolutely no object to us at all because we stand united in our view of the world and what needs to be done and we are proactive nations that are prepared to stand up and make sure that we do maintain the world order,” he said.

The announcement of the new defense accord between Canberra and London comes a day after Australia hosted a visit by China’s most senior diplomat, the foreign minister Wang Yi.

Analysts have said that China’s increasing assertiveness is a key motivation behind the trilateral AUKUS agreement, but China has accused Australia, Britain and the United States of a “Cold War mentality,” saying the alliance was embarking on a “path of error and danger.”

Thursday, the Canberra government has also announced a new multi-million-dollar deal to send army vehicles to Germany. In one of the biggest defense export deals in Australian history, 100 Boxer armored vehicles will be sent to the German army.
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