Beijing, — China conducted “combat patrols” Sunday in the South China Sea, its army said, the same day the Philippines, the United States, Japan and Australia held their first joint drills in the disputed waters.

The maritime activities took place days before U.S. President Joe Biden was due to hold the first trilateral summit with the leaders of the Philippines and Japan, with growing tensions over the hotly contested South China Sea on the agenda.

Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command said it was organizing “joint naval and air combat patrols in the South China Sea”.

“All military activities that mess up the situation in the South China Sea and create hotspots are under control,” it said in a statement, in an apparent swipe at the other drills being held in the waters.

The Philippine military said its drills with the United States, Australia and Japan “demonstrated the participating countries’ commitment to strengthen regional and international cooperation in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific through interoperability exercises in the maritime domain.”

Dubbed the “Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity”, the drills included naval and air force units from all four countries.

They performed a communication exercise, division tactics, and a photo exercise, the Philippine statement said Sunday.

The Japanese embassy in Manila said in a previous statement that “anti-submarine warfare training” would be included in the drills.

Further details about the Chinese military activities in the waterway were not announced.

The United States has sought to strengthen defense cooperation with its allies in the region to counter China’s growing influence.

Top U.S officials have repeatedly declared the United States’ “ironclad” commitment to defending the Philippines, a treaty ally, against an armed attack in the South China Sea — to the consternation of Beijing.

China claims nearly all of the waterway despite competing claims from other countries, including the Philippines, and an international ruling that its stance has no legal basis.

China’s Coast Guard said Saturday it had “handled” a situation at a disputed reef on Thursday, when it claimed several ships from the Philippines were engaged in “illegal” operations.

“Under the guise of ‘protecting fishing’, Philippine government ships have illegally violated and provoked, organized media to deliberately incite and mislead, continuing to undermine stability in the South China Sea,” spokesman Gan Yu said.

“We are telling the Philippines that any infringement tactics are in vain,” Gan said, adding that China would “regularly enforce the law in waters under [its] jurisdiction.”

Relations between Manila and Beijing have deteriorated under Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, who has taken a stronger stance than his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte against Chinese actions in the sea.

There have been several confrontations between Philippine and Chinese vessels near contested reefs in recent months, including collisions.

Marcos issued a statement on March 28 vowing the country would not be “cowed into silence, submission, or subservience” by China.

He also said the Philippines would respond to recent incidents with countermeasures that would be “proportionate, deliberate, and reasonable.”
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President Joe Biden will host the leaders of Japan and the Philippines Thursday. The first trilateral summit between Washington and its two Asian allies is set to launch initiatives including bolstering maritime cooperation in the South China Sea. White House Bureau Chief Patsy Widakuswara reports.
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washington — U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is on a five-day visit to China, where she expressed concern to Chinese officials Friday about state subsidies that fuel manufacturing overcapacity in industries such as electric vehicles, solar panels and semiconductors.

U.S. officials and economists have warned that China’s overcapacity — when its production ability significantly exceeds what is needed in markets — will further drive down prices and cost jobs, especially if China seeks to offload excess production through exports instead of domestic consumption.

U.S. President Joe Biden, in a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping Tuesday, said China’s “unfair” trade policies and “non-market” practices harm the interests of American workers and families.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin gave reporters at a regular briefing Wednesday a rundown of the conversation the two leaders had on trade, according to Beijing. He said “the U.S. has adopted a string of measures to suppress China’s trade and technology development and is adding more and more Chinese entities to its sanctions lists. This is not ‘de-risking,’ but creating risks.”

So, when is an industry at overcapacity?

Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that for capital-intensive industries such as steel, oil refining and semiconductors, when capacity utilization is below 75% for an extended period of time, most observers would label that excess capacity.

Hufbauer told VOA that China’s massive government-stimulated and bank-financed investment has resulted in almost all the country’s capital-intensive manufacturing industries having overcapacity.

“If China does pursue a massive export ‘solution,’ that will hurt manufacturing firms in Japan, the E.U., Korea and other industrial countries. But low prices will be welcome in many developing countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia,” he said.

A report last week by the New York-based Rhodium Group, which researches the Chinese market, shows that the utilization rate of China’s silicon wafer capacity dropped from 78% in 2019 to 57% in 2022. In 2022, China’s lithium-ion battery production reached 1.9 times the domestic installation volume, showing that the problem of overcapacity in clean energy fields is emerging.

China’s exports of electric vehicles, solar cells and lithium batteries have increased even more significantly. Data shows that in 2023, China’s electric vehicle export volume was seven times that of 2019, while its solar cell export volume in 2023 was five times that of 2018, an increase of 40% from 2022.

The report notes that while temporary overcapacity may be harmless and a normal part of the market cycle, it becomes a problem when it is perpetuated by government intervention.

The Rhodium Group’s report says that China’s National People’s Congress in March focused on industrial policies that benefit high-tech industries, while there is little financial support for household consumption.

“This policy mix will compound the growing imbalance between domestic supply and demand,” says the report. “Systemic bias toward supporting producers rather than households or consumers allows Chinese firms to ramp up production despite low margins, without the fear of bankruptcy that constrains firms in market economies.”

Overcapacity a decade ago

China’s structural overcapacity problem is not a new phenomenon. Rhodium Group’s report says the last time China had large overcapacity issues was from 2014 to 2016, a few years after the government launched a massive stimulus package in response to the global financial crisis that began in 2008. The stimulus package centered on infrastructure and real estate construction, triggering major capacity build-up in a range of associated industries.

In 2014, as the demand for real estate and infrastructure construction weakened, there was obvious overcapacity in heavy industrial products such as steel and aluminum.

“Ultimately, China’s excess capacity is due to state interference in the market,” said Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “Genuinely private participants can’t sustain excess capacity for long because it causes losses. But state support for production of some goods and services, called “strategic” or something like that, enables companies to survive despite these losses.”

Scissors said China’s overcapacity in the new energy sectors of electric vehicles, solar panels and batteries concerns the Biden administration as it wants to expand those sectors in the U.S.

“The U.S. has raised concerns about Chinese overproduction for years,” he told VOA. “What’s changed is there is now emerging American industrial policy clashing with long-standing and widespread Chinese industrial policy.”

The Rhodium Group’s report says China’s surge in exports of new energy products over the past few years could be devastating for market-constrained producers in advanced economies such as the U.S.

Beijing’s policy planning will exacerbate the growing imbalance between domestic supply and demand, it reads, putting China on the road to trade confrontation with the rest of the world.

Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
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WASHINGTON — Deputy Minister of Human Rights of Myanmar’s shadow government, the National Unity Government (NUG), Aung Kyaw Moe told VOA that the Myanmar people distrust the ruling military leader’s recent claim that he is interested in restoring democracy in the country. In a recent interview with VOA, the minister, also the NUG’s first Rohingya minister, called for caution in assessing China’s efforts to facilitate the repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh and delved into the Rohingyas’ aspiration to align themselves with the Rakhine people against the junta, which overthrew a democratically elected government in 2021. 

The following interview has been translated into English and edited for length and clarity. 

VOA: The Myanmar junta’s senior general, Min Aung Hlaing, gave a speech at their Armed Forces Day parade on March 27th in which he claims he is holding power only “temporarily” to strengthen democracy. What is your opinion on that? 

Aung Kyaw Moe, NUG Deputy Human Rights Minister: The main leader of the military junta is Min Aung Hlaing. Almost every word that comes out of his mouth belies his intentions. From day one, when he first attempted to seize power, he has not been accountable for his words, and there is no accountability within the organization he leads. Therefore, listening to his words would be a waste of time and only serve to exhaust people seeking a genuine political solution. 

His political vision and the reality he faces are completely opposed. When the military attempted to seize power, their political calculation did not anticipate such a collective resistance from the public. They never expected such widespread opposition. This latest statement, although insincere, is calculated to craft a narrative that he can present to the international community, one that is more likely to be accepted by countries allied with them. This narrative is also an attempt to deceive the people amidst a rising political tide against his military government. However, the people are aware of the misinformation spread by the junta, and they won’t believe these false messages. 

VOA: Senior General Min Aung Hlaing also said in his speech that, by the end of this year, they will complete a new accounting of the voter pool in Myanmar. He didn’t say exactly when an election would be held but said that to hold this election, there must be unity between the people and the military. How do you see the prospects for unity before a new election? 

Aung Kyaw Moe: That election would be rigged — a fake election. They consistently claim that they view the election as a political exit strategy from their attempted seizure of power. Firstly, they haven’t been able to accomplish anything, let alone prepare for an election. Secondly, we already have a parliament composed of representatives elected by the people, who clearly emerged victorious in 2020. With this mandate from the people and the parliament, the junta have no justification for calling another election during this term. The public doesn’t accept it, ethnic revolutionary organizations don’t accept it, and democracy activists don’t accept it. Such statements by the junta cannot be tolerated in the current intense political climate in Myanmar. 

VOA: The United Nations has taken the lead in addressing the Rohingya crisis, but China has also gotten involved, for example, in the repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh back to Myanmar. How do you see China’s role in the Rohingya crisis going forward? 

Aung Kyaw Moe: It’s undeniable that China holds significant sway in Myanmar’s political landscape as a neighboring superpower. However, China needs to understand that the transition towards the rule of law in Myanmar is not a threat to its interests. Regarding the Rohingya, China calculates its interests carefully. The Rohingya issue doesn’t directly affect China’s borders, but Chinese investments in Rakhine State, including deep-sea ports and the Shwe Gas natural gas pipelines project, are substantial. Perhaps China’s desire for peace and stability in Rakhine State aligns with its national interests. However, China’s attempts to garner international acceptance for the military junta, potentially by facilitating Rohingya repatriation, could grant the junta the legitimacy it seeks in international relations. It’s also plausible that China is indirectly creating diplomatic room to legitimize the junta. 

VOA: Currently, the Rohingya community remaining in Rakhine faces pressure from both the junta and the Arakan Army (AA), particularly during the AA’s recent offensive, which saw military tactical positions and entire towns being occupied. The Rohingya are essentially caught in the crossfire between the military junta and the AA, as the group seeks autonomy from Myanmar’s central government in Rakhine state. Given this complex situation, how do you perceive the possibility of coexistence between these two communities, especially considering the differing perspectives on ethnic identity? 

Aung Kyaw Moe: There are two crucial aspects to consider here. Firstly, as a government member and a Rohingya myself, in the complex political landscape of Myanmar, I see my individual and collective rights intricately linked to my identity and circumstances. In a political environment shaped by identity, the promise of equality means little if we’re denied the right to identify ourselves as we choose. Hence, the assertion of our Rohingya identity is essential for safeguarding our rights and cultural heritage. 

Secondly, peaceful coexistence hinges on addressing political aspirations accurately. While we strive to dismantle the junta and forge our own destinies, it’s imperative to avoid replicating the very racism we condemn. Our unity must be grounded in moral integrity and responsibility, not reactive emotions. When addressing organized provocations by the junta, our response should prioritize the common interests of all ethnic groups in Rakhine state. By aligning with the Rakhine people’s interests, we counter the junta’s attempts to marginalize us, and we uphold our collective well-being. Embracing moral principles and responsibilities empowers us to resist exploitation by the junta while fostering genuine unity based on shared values and aspirations.
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HUALIEN, Taiwan — Rescuers in Taiwan faced the threat of further landslides and rockfalls in their search Friday for a dozen people still missing from this week’s earthquake, as the death toll rose to 12 and some of the stranded were brought to safety.

Searchers discovered two more bodies after Wednesday’s quake of magnitude 7.2 struck the sparsely populated, largely rural eastern county of Hualien, stranding hundreds in a national park as boulders barreled down mountains, cutting off roads.

As some 50 aftershocks rattled the area overnight, some felt as far away as Taipei, rescuers said about 400 people cut off in a luxury hotel in the Taroko Gorge national park were safe, with helicopters ferrying out the injured and bringing supplies.

“Rain increases the risks of rockfalls and landslides, which are currently the biggest challenges,” said Su Yu-ming, the leader of a search team helping the rescue effort.

“These factors are unpredictable, which means we cannot confirm the number of days required for the search and rescue operations.”

Taiwan’s fire department said two bodies were found in the mountains, but did not immediately update the death toll. It put the number of missing at 18, three of them foreigners of Australian and Canadian nationality.

It dropped from the list of missing an Indian national whose inclusion it called a mistake but did not elaborate.

A group of 50 hotel workers marooned on a road to the national park are now mostly safe.

“I am lucky to survive,” said David Chen, 63, a security manager at the hotel, after his rescue. “We were terrified when the earthquake first happened. We thought it was all over, all over, all over, because it was an earthquake, right?”

Rocks were still tumbling down nearby slopes as the group left, he added. “We had to navigate through the gaps between the falling rocks, with the rescue team out front.”

Chen’s 85-year-old mother wept in relief on being reunited with her son, as the family had not known for some time if he had survived.

“I was happy when he returned,” said the mother, Chen Lan-chih. “I didn’t sleep at all last night and couldn’t eat anything.”

The quake came a day before Taiwan began a long weekend holiday for the traditional tomb sweeping festival, when people head to their homes to spruce up ancestral graves.

Many others visit tourist spots, like Hualien, famed for its rugged beauty, but the earthquake has crushed business, with many bookings canceled, some businesses said.

“This is a disaster actually for us because no matter (whether) hotel, hostel, restaurants (everything) really depends on tourism,” said hostel owner Aga Syu, adding that her main concern was the well-being of guests. “I hope this won’t destroy their image of Hualien.”

Taiwan lies near the junction of two tectonic plates and is prone to earthquakes. More than 100 people were killed in a 2016 quake in its south, while one of magnitude 7.3 killed more than 2,000 in 1999.
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BANGKOK — Panicked passengers jumped into the sea to escape a raging ferry fire in the Gulf of Thailand early Thursday, and all 108 people on board were safe. 

The overnight ferry from Surat Thani province was about to arrive at Koh Tao, a popular tourist destination off the Thai coast, when one of the passengers suddenly heard a crackling sound and smelled smoke. 

Maitree Promjampa said he saw billowing smoke and fire less than five minutes later, and that was when people started shouting and rang the alarm. 

“We could barely get the life vests in time,” he told The Associated Press. “It was chaotic. People were weeping … I also teared up.” 

Of the 108 people on the ferry, 97 were passengers, Surat Thani officials said on Facebook. The province’s public relations department posted that everyone was rescued with no casualties. 

Videos showed people hurrying out of the ferry’s cabin while putting on life vests, as thick black smoke swept across the ferry. It was later engulfed in fire. 

Maitree, a Surat Thani resident who often travels to Koh Tao for work, said several boats came to their rescue around 20 minutes after they called for help, but the boats could not get close to the ferry out of fear of explosions. He said people had to jump into the sea to be rescued. Videos showed the ferry was also carrying several vehicles. 

“Everyone had to help themselves,” he said. 

Officials said the fire was since brought under control. It began in the engine, but the cause is being investigated. The ferry did not sink. 

The ferry from Surat Thani to Koh Tao carries both commuters and tourists. Koh Tao is about 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the coast. 
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Seoul, South Korea — A much-heralded first meeting between South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and a negotiator for young doctors who walked off the job in February appeared to have made little progress on Thursday after the latter expressed pessimism on social media.  

Yoon’s office said his first in-person talks lasted more than two hours, after he showed the first signs of flexibility in an approach until now marked by a hard-line attitude, as crucial parliament elections approach next week.

“There is no future for medical care in Korea,” the negotiator, Park Dan, posted on his Facebook page after the meeting at which Yoon’s office said the two exchanged views on improving working conditions and compensation for the doctors.

It was not immediately clear what aspect of the talks Park was referring to. Reuters has sent him a text message to seek comment.  

The long drawn-out walkout by thousands of trainee doctors nationwide is putting increasing strain on South Korea’s health care system, forcing hospitals to turn away patients and cut back on surgeries except in emergencies.

Park, the head of the Korean Intern Resident Association, accepted Yoon’s invitation to meet and conveyed the views of his colleagues, Yoon’s office said in its brief statement.

It added that Yoon would respect the position of the trainee doctors in future discussions with the medical community on health care reform, including an increase in physician numbers.

The centerpiece of Yoon’s contested plan is to boost medical school admissions and the number of doctors in a rapidly aging society, but many are instead concerned about securing better working conditions and legal protection.

Unless action is taken, South Korea faces having 15,000 fewer doctors than it needs to maintain essential services, the government has warned.

Yoon had said his plan to raise the number of new medical students to 5,000 a year from 3,000 now is not up for discussion but signaled on Monday there might be room to adjust it if the medical community offered reasonable proposals.  

South Korea’s practicing physicians and teachers in medical school have demanded that Yoon scrap his reform plans.  

While a large majority of the public support the thrust of Yoon’s plan, a poll on Monday showed more people are unhappy with the way his government has handled the stalemate.

South Koreans go to the polls on April 10 to elect a 300-member parliament and Yoon’s conservative People Power Party faces an uphill battle to win back a majority now held by the opposition.
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tokyo — Japan is set to improve its strategic partnership with the Philippines at an upcoming trilateral meeting with the United States amid rising tensions between Beijing and Manila.

Leaders of the three countries, who will meet April 11 in Washington, are expected to discuss maritime security issues that are drawing Japan into a more robust military role in the Asia-Pacific region.

China used water cannons last month to disrupt a Philippine mission to resupply its garrison in a disputed portion of the South China Sea, an attack that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. called “illegal, coercive” and warranting countermeasures.

Despite its geographical distance from the South China Sea, Japan’s national interests lie in defending peace across the region, according to Alexander Vuving, professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies.

“From the Philippines’ perspective, Japan is Manila’s second most important partner in the South China Sea, second only to the United States, given Japan’s high commitment to keeping the sea free of Chinese dominance; Japan’s robust economic and military capabilities; and Japan’s proximity to the sea,” he told VOA.

Protecting regional dominance

Freedom of navigation in the maritime region is vital to Japan, which sees 90% of its energy and trade flow through the South China Sea. Japan relies heavily on importing crude oil from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while one-fourth of the nation’s total trade in 2019 was from the European Union and members of ASEAN that also rely on the sea route.

Vuving added that Japan has changed its strategy from depending only on the U.S.-Japan military alliance to taking a more proactive role in defending its own national interests.

“The protection of the sea lines of communication that connect Japan with the rest of Afro-Eurasia is prominent in this vision because these maritime routes are some of the main arteries of Japan’s supply chains,” he said.

Ken Jimbo, a Keio University professor specializing in Japanese defense and security policy, said Japan is aiming to keep China’s maritime presence in check.

“Diplomatically, [keeping China in check] allows Japan to strengthen its position in the Indo-Pacific region, fostering closer security and defense cooperation with like-minded countries to counterbalance China’s assertiveness,” he told VOA.

Japan announced late last year that it was in talks with the Philippines for a defense pact known as a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) that would provide for enhanced security assistance.

“The negotiation of a Japan-Philippines RAA signifies a deepening military cooperation, aiming to elevate their defense relations,” Jimbo said. “Japan is considered a powerful ally for the Philippines, not just in terms of military equipment but also in enhancing interoperability and strategic alignment against common security challenges in the region.”

Early last year, the two countries signed terms of reference that simplified the process for Japanese forces to enter the Philippines for humanitarian assistance.

Further friction with China?

Japan’s siding with the Philippines and the U.S. has created friction in sometimes bumpy Sino-Japanese relations. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, urged Japan to “take actions that are beneficial to regional peace and stability,” state media CGTN reported in late March.

The sources of friction between the two countries range from anger over Japan’s use of sexual slavery during World War II to the release of wastewater from the disabled Fukushima nuclear power plant. There is also a long-standing dispute over islands in the East China Sea known as Diaoyu to China and Senkaku to Japan.

Jimbo said the trilateral summit in Washington could strain Sino-Japanese relations, but that the benefits outweigh the costs.

“It is a calculated move within Japan’s broader regional strategy,” he said. “The dynamics of Japan-China relations are complex, with economic interdependence coexisting with strategic rivalry, suggesting that both nations are accustomed to managing fluctuations in their relationship.”

Vuving said China is unlikely to react by raising tensions over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands.

“Such tensions would only strengthen Japan’s belief in seeking regional cooperation to deny Chinese regional dominance,” he said. “China may seek ways to hurt Japan economically, but for Japan, the trilateral cooperation … helps to redress the balance of power in the South China Sea in the long term … and would be immensely important if a conflict occurred over Taiwan.”

China is currently Japan’s largest trading partner, and one of the largest investment destinations for Japanese companies. Japan exports semiconductors and electronic parts to China and imports telecommunications and computer equipment from it, according to government data.

Experts say that after the trilateral meeting, Japan is expected to send its naval vessels to patrol with the U.S and the Philippines and will likely join military drills in the South China Sea. 
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WASHINGTON — Speculation has been spreading about the future, role, and place in China’s power structure of Premier Li Qiang since the unexplained cancellation of a routine press conference he was expected to hold last month. It was arguably the biggest news about Li, a figure largely unknown to the outside world, since he took office a year ago.

Analysts tell VOA that to better know Li, it is important to understand his place in China’s leadership structure – highly centralized under Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping’s tight rule – and the two men’s past together, which stretches back two decades.

Path to premiership

Li was born in 1959 in a rural area of China’s coastal province Zhejiang. His family is rooted in the farming communities of Zhejiang, and Li started out working as an industrial laborer at the age of 17 after he graduated from high school.

His background differs sharply from that of his boss, Xi Jinping, whose father was one of China’s first generation of Communist Party leaders. His background is also different from that of his immediate predecessor, Li Keqiang, who studied at the prestigious Beijing University and whose father was a local party official.

Li Qiang’s climb within the ranks of the Chinese Communist Party began after studying at an agricultural college in his home province. After graduating in 1982, Li did not work in factories or in the rural communities again.

From 2000 to 2002, Li presided over the Zhejiang provincial bureau of commerce. In 2002, at age 43, he rose to become the youngest Communist Party secretary of Wenzhou, known to be a capital of entrepreneurs, in his native Zhejiang province.

That same year, Xi Jinping moved from Fujian, another coastal province, to lead Zhejiang as its party secretary, directly overseeing Wenzhou and other municipalities.

It was during Xi’s tenure in Zhejiang, from 2002 until he left for Shanghai in 2007, that the two men had opportunities to know each other. From 2004 to 2005, Li served as the chief of staff to Zhejiang’s provincial Communist Party committee, essentially Xi’s chief of staff. His portfolio soon expanded to include membership in the provincial Communist Party standing committee, deputy provincial party secretary, head of the provincial political and legal affairs committee, and governor of Zhejiang.

Li was promoted to party secretary in neighboring Jiangsu province in 2016 and a year later to party secretary of Shanghai. He was placed in the premiership in March 2023.

“It is fair to say that all of his later promotions happened thanks to Xi,” Xia Ming, a China-born political science professor at the City University of New York, said in a phone interview with VOA.

Wenzhou model

“It’s worth noting that Li is closely tied to what is known as the ‘Wenzhou model,’ which resembles what is known in the West as liberal economics,” Xia added.

What enabled the private entrepreneur-led “Wenzhou model” to succeed, Xia said, was local Communist Party officials’ non-interference at the time, which stands in contrast with the party’s heavy-handedness today.

“Now that Li has joined Xi’s cabinet, whatever model he might have been tied to will have to succumb to the Xi model,” Hu Ping told VOA. Hu Ping is a native of China’s south-central Sichuan province and received his degrees from Beijing University in the 1980s, before entering into exile in the United States. Hu Ping is editor emeritus of China Spring magazine.

Steve Tsang, author of The Political Thought of Xi Jinping, explained to VOA in a phone interview from London how he sees the Xi model: “What Xi Jinping is trying to do is to create one country, one people, one ideology, one party, one leader,” Tsang said. 

Unlike Li Keqiang, who landed the job due to support from party elders, Tsang added, Li Qiang was hand-picked by Xi and is expected to do Xi’s bidding.

While Li Qiang’s appointment to succeed Li Keqiang is seen as an attempt to solidify the above model, there were signs that Li Qiang’s ties with the Chinese business community from his years working in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai might be tapped to help Xi solve some of the country’s economic challenges. 

Potential mediator

The Economist reported in March of last year that Li Qiang had a hand in persuading one of China’s most famous businessmen, Jack Ma, to return to China. Ma, like Li, a native of Zhejiang, had reportedly fallen out with Xi amid crackdowns on private enterprises and Ma’s increasing popularity, both at home and abroad. Ma was said gone into self-imposed exile in Japan.

Li was “trying to reassure wealthy private entrepreneurs that, though they should know their place, they are still valued by the party,” according to the article.

Despite assurances to Ma and private entrepreneurs, China’s economy continues to face big challenges, including falling foreign direct investment and outflow of capital.

Li Qiang’s predecessor, Li Keqiang, was known for his straight talk on China’s economy and calling for a more domestic welfare-centered approach, in contrast to the state power-centric and expansionist model put forth by Xi. 

In May 2020, Li Keqiang told reporters at the National People’s Congress press conference that more than 40 percent of China’s population of 1.4 billion live on $143 a month, remarks seen as a rebuke of the official line that poverty has been eliminated all throughout the country under Xi’s leadership.

Li Keqiang even developed an index for measuring China’s economic growth that was deemed more reliable than local government figures because it looked at railway cargo volume, electric consumption and loans disbursed by banks.

Li Qiang, who stepped into Li Keqiang’s role a year ago, is widely seen as a Xi protégé whose key job is doing the bidding of China’s leader. Whether that might include other mediation efforts on behalf of Xi in China’s political and economic power struggles remains to be seen. 

“To be a middleman, or power broker, you need to have a certain amount of sway on both sides,” said City University of New York’s Xia Ming. Putting his loyalist credentials aside, Xia said Li is also under pressure to show his ability to take care of the Chinese Communist Party’s pocketbook. 

Mao Zedong’s old saying that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun has since been amended, Xia adds. To stay in power, the money bag is a key factor as well.

 
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On a call Tuesday, President Joe Biden discussed with Chinese President Xi Jinping a range of high-level issues and reiterated his request that China not use web-based disinformation tools to interfere with the U.S. presidential election. The two leaders also discussed Taiwan – the island China claims – as it prepares to inaugurate a new leader next month. VOA’s Anita Powell reports from Washington.
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phnom penh, cambodia/washington — Cambodia’s first leadership change in almost four decades has given the United States an opportunity to reset its relationship with Phnom Penh, analysts and experts told VOA Khmer following a recent visit from an American diplomat. 

However, Cambodia’s slide away from democracy — along with claims that China is establishing an exclusive military presence at Cambodia’s main naval base — continues to pose a major impediment to warming relations, they said in recent interviews. 

Sebastian Strangio, the author of Hun Sen’s Cambodia, said some voices in U.S. foreign policy circles were questioning the effectiveness of Washington’s prevailing Cambodia policy even before former Prime Minister Hun Sen handed control to his son, Prime Minister Hun Manet, in August — ending the father’s 38-year reign. 

“There has been discussion amongst people who pay attention to Southeast Asia that the very moralistic tone of American policy toward Cambodia, really since the early ’90s, has failed to achieve its goals, while also opening up the space for China to step in as Hun Sen’s benefactor and patron, and that some sort of change in emphasis was needed,” he said during an interview with VOA Khmer on March 28. 

Strangio described tension between leading Hun Sen critics in Congress, who want human rights and democracy at the forefront of Cambodia policy, and more pragmatic figures in the State Department who are willing to sacrifice principles for more influence in Phnom Penh. 

The coming to power of Manet, a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, “has given an opportunity for the country to take a new approach, or for people advocating a new approach to get more of a hearing,” Strangio said. 

That shift was on full display after July’s election. The U.S. initially froze $18 million in foreign aid to Cambodia in protest of the election, pointing to a “pattern of threats and harassment” against opposition politicians, journalists and civil society ahead of the vote. 

Two months later, after Hun Manet was sworn in, Victoria Nuland, the acting U.S. deputy secretary of state, met with the new prime minister in New York and informed him the U.S. would unfreeze the funds. 

Analysts say Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Kritenbrink’s visit to Phnom Penh in late February showed the delicate balance the United States is pursuing, highlighting areas of agreement without entirely abandoning its stated priorities since helping broker peace in Cambodia 30 years ago. 

The U.S. envoy, in an online news conference March 7, said he raised “areas of difference related to issues such as human rights, trafficking in persons, and creating space for free and independent media,” while also reiterating the U.S. commitment to “a more prosperous, democratic, and independent country.” 

Kritenbrink praised Cambodia at the United Nations for cooperating with sanctions against North Korea and consistently condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

Astrid Norén-Nilsson, a senior lecturer at the Center for East and South-East Asian Studies at Sweden’s Lund University, said the U.S. “commitment to Cambodia remains fundamentally geopolitical.” 

She noted Hun Manet’s government was sending some positive signals on the domestic front, despite the political repression.

“The new government’s focus on administrative reform, its discourse of meritocracy, and its technocratic approach to policy also allow Western governments to latch on to its policy agendas,” she said. 

Kritenbrink said he and Hun Manet discussed the Ream Naval base, a pain point between the countries that has prompted U.S. sanctions against top military figures. 

The U.S. accuses Cambodia of allowing China to develop the base as an exclusive Chinese naval outpost. Cambodia denies any such deal and says China will not have any special access to the base.

 
Paul Chambers, of the Center of ASEAN Community Studies at Naresuan University in Thailand, said Kritenbrink’s visit was “meant to send a message to Cambodia that leading U.S. officials are worried about Cambodia’s tilt to China.” 

Chambers said the high level of Chinese military and economic involvement in Cambodia would remain a roadblock to expanding cooperation with Washington.

“It will deeply worsen U.S.-Cambodia relations unless there is an offset — Cambodia allows equal levels of U.S. security activity with Cambodia,” he said in an email to VOA Khmer on March 13. Cambodia canceled its annual joint military drills with the United States in 2017. 

Sophal Ear, an associate professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University and a longtime Cambodia observer, was optimistic about a potential breakthrough in U.S.-Cambodia relations. 

“Timing is everything. Rapprochement may be on the menu,” he said in an email last month. 

“Cambodia is strategically located in Southeast Asia and is crucial to regional dynamics,” he added. “Engaging with Cambodia allows the U.S. to promote its governance, trade, and regional security interests.”

However, other analysts said the United States is likely unwilling to take steps that would significantly change the state of relations.

Christopher Primiano, an assistant professor of political science at Huntingdon College in Alabama who studies China’s role in Southeast Asia, said Washington is not interested in competing with China in military or economic support for Hun Manet’s government. 

And though the tone from U.S. diplomats may have shifted to some extent, he told VOA in a phone call last week that criticism around democracy and human rights hasn’t stopped. 

“This will always be a source of discontent for the leadership in Cambodia,” he said. “If the U.S. government were very interested in Cambodia as a security partner, then we think that we would see less naming and shaming.”

Sim Chansamnang contributed to this report.
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