The number of people infected with a new strain of coronavirus in China tripled over the weekend and is spreading from Wuhan to other major cities. The new cases of pneumonia-like illness caused by the virus has been detected in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Scientists have also confirmed that the virus can be spread from human to human, which is bad news for China as it prepares for the Spring Holiday which is the busiest travel season. VOA’s Zlatica Hoke has more.
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The U.S. ambassador to South Korea has some unusual explanations for the harsh criticism he’s faced in his host country. His mustache, maybe? Or a Japanese ancestry that raises unpleasant reminders of Japan’s former colonial domination of Korea?Many South Koreans, however, have a more straight-forward explanation for Harry Harris’ struggle to win hearts and minds in Seoul, and it’s got more to do with an outspoken manner that they see as undiplomatic and rude.Since arriving in Seoul in July 2018, Harris, a retired navy admiral born to a Japanese mother and an American navy officer, has been the focus of keen attention because of his military and ethnic background. The 63-year-old former U.S. Pacific Command chief has sometimes drawn criticism from those who take issue with his manner when dealing with South Koreans.His mustache has become the subject of ribbing online, with jokes made about how it resembles those of Japanese colonial masters, who brutally occupied the Korean Peninsula from 1910-45. But there is more serious concern that the discord could widen a growing rift in Seoul’s relations with Washington at a time when diplomacy with rival North Korea seem in danger of imploding.
Harris recently said his appearance and ethnicity have been a source of his criticism in South Korea.
 
“My mustache, for some reason, has become a point of some fascination here,” Harris told a group of foreign reporters in Seoul last week. “I have been criticized in the media here, especially in social media, because of my ethnic background, because I am a Japanese-American.”
It’s not the first time a U.S. ambassador in South Korea has been in the news for things other than diplomacy. In 2015, former Ambassador Mark Lippert was slashed in the face and arm by an anti-American activist.
But unlike Lippert, Harris has repeatedly irked many South Koreans since President Donald Trump sent him here.
After meeting Harris in November, Lee Hye-hoon, then chairwoman of the South Korean parliament’s intelligence committee, said that the ambassador repeated about 20 times Trump’s calls for Seoul to drastically increase its financial contribution to U.S. troop deployment in the South.
In recent months, four students were arrested after they broke into Harris’ Seoul residence during an anti-U.S. rally. A mock mustache was plucked from his picture at another demonstration.
Harris said his mustache has nothing to do with his Japanese background and that he started growing it only to mark the start of his career as a diplomat.
 
“To those people, I say that you are cherry-picking history,” Harris said, adding that some Korean independence fighters also had a mustache.
Harris said he understands the historical animosity that exists between Japan and South Korea.
“But I’m not the Japanese-American ambassador to Korea” he said. “I’m the American ambassador to Korea.”
Kevin Gray, a professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex in the U.K., tweeted Friday that “Koreans’ reaction to Harris’ mustache is vastly exaggerated.”
He said what did rile South Koreans was Harris’ “imperialistic manner” and efforts to “undermine” South Korean President Moon Jae-in and “dictate” South Korean government policy.
A Monday editorial from the Korea Times said that “the point is not his mustache.”
“South Koreans would not have cared that much about his mustache if he was a ‘normal’ ambassador,” the editorial said.
Most surveys show a majority of South Koreans support the U.S. military presence in South Korea as deterrence against potential North Korean aggression, but there is a small but determined anti-U.S. network.
South Korean media have often compared Harris with his popular predecessor Lippert. Images of Lippert bleeding after the 2015 knife attack shocked many South Koreans and triggered an outpouring of public sympathy. The attack during a breakfast forum left deep gashes on Lippert’s face and arm and required five days of hospitalization.
While leaving a Seoul hospital, Lippert inspired many by saying in Korean: “The ground hardens after rain. Let’s go together.”
When asked by reporters about Moon saying he may push for individual tourism to North Korea because it won’t violate U.S.-led international sanctions, Harris stressed the need for South Korea to consult with the United States.
Those comments added to criticism of Harris, with ruling party lawmaker Song Young-gil comparing him to a Japanese governor general.
Harris’ troubles may also be linked to growing unease between South Korea and the United States.
The U.S. desire to enforce tough sanctions on North Korea doesn’t fit with the dovish Moon’s push to get sanction exemptions and restart joint rapprochement projects with North Korea. Trump’s demands for a large increase in Seoul’s payment for the U.S. military deployment prompted many South Koreans to question whether the United States is still a trustworthy ally.
 
“Rather than address the sources of these frustrations, some South Koreans have directed their ire at an American admiral-turned-diplomat of Japanese heritage,” said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “Unfortunately, Seoul faces political and diplomatic decisions that are much tougher than opting for a clean shave.”  
 
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Philippine officials ordered a crackdown Monday on people being allowed daily visits to the homes they fled after Taal volcano erupted, citing threats it could still explode at any time.Over 110,000 people have taken refuge in evacuation centers since Taal burst to life a week ago, but many hard-hit towns have permitted people in to fetch items, feed livestock and clean up their houses.”We are directing DRRMCs (civil defense officers)… not to allow anyone to enter the danger zone,” said Epimaco Densing, undersecretary for the Department of Interior.”It’s dangerous, that’s why we have imposed a lockdown,” he told reporters.The volcano shot ash 15 kilometers (nine miles) high in the January 12 eruption, which crushed scores of homes and killed livestock as well as crops.However, seismologists have warned the volcano could imminently unleash a much bigger blast, putting at risk the lives of anyone in the 14-kilometre (nine-mile) radius “danger zone” that surrounds it.”The threat remains. It has not waned,” Renato Solidum, head of the Philippines’ seismological agency, told reporters.He said the volcano might be spewing less ash that it was a few days ago, but the magma that would fuel a big eruption is still coursing toward it.Until experts deem the threat has passed, the evacuees will need the shelters spread across some 400 sites that range from school campuses to covered basketball courts.Authorities say they have so far been able to provide fundamental services to the evacuees, including a place to sleep, eat and wash.”We can handle the (current evacuee numbers). The issue is how are we going to sustain resources over the longer term,” Alex Masiglat, spokesman for disaster relief in the ground zero Calabarzon region.”Our concern is how are we going to sustain a long term evacuation period,” he added.Though no people have been reported killed in the eruption, it has wrought havoc on agriculture and tourism.Taal is set in the middle of a picturesque lake that is a popular draw for tourists.
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Chinese health officials in the central city of Wuhan confirmed 136 new cases of a new coronavirus — a huge spike — over the past three days.The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission says the total number of cases of the virus now exceeds 200, including two new cases in Beijing and one in Shenzhen in southern China. Most of the confirmed cases are described as mild, but three deaths have been reported.Doctors in Wuhan, China’s seventh most populous city, have stepped up screening for suspected cases of pneumonia. They are urging people to be more conscious of their personal hygiene and to cover their mouths when they cough or sneeze.On Friday the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention started screening passengers arriving from Wuhan at three airports — San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York. Airports in Japan, Thailand, South Korea and Singapore are also screening passengers.Passengers on a flight that arrived Saturday morning in San Francisco said they went through the screening and it was an easy procedure. Their temperature was taken and they filled out a form.Chinese and U.S. health officials are particularly concerned because many of the 1.4 billion Chinese citizens are expected to travel for the Lunar New Year holiday that starts Jan. 25, both inside China and beyond.FILE – A man leaves the Wuhan Medical Treatment Center, where a man who died from a respiratory illness was being treated, in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China, Jan. 12, 2020.A coronavirus is one of a large family of viruses that can cause illnesses ranging from the common cold to the deadly Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. SARS, which also started in China, killed nearly 800 people globally during an outbreak 17 years ago.Chinese health experts know little about the new strain, dubbed 2019-nCoV, in Wuhan, especially how it is transmitted. They suspect the outbreak started in a Wuhan seafood market, which also sold other animals such as poultry, bats, marmots and wild game meat, but some patients say they were never there.Health officials are urging caution but say there is no reason to panic. The World Health Organization is not recommending against travel to China, and China’s National Health Commission says the current outbreak is “preventable and controllable.”According to the latest information received and WHO analysis, there is evidence of limited human-to-human transmission of the virus, the WHO tweeted Sunday. This is in line with experience with other respiratory illnesses and in particular with other coronavirus outbreaks.While there is currently no clear evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission, we do not have enough evidence to evaluate the full extent of human-to-human transmission. This is one of the issues that @WHO is monitoring closely.While there is currently no clear evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission, we do not have enough evidence to evaluate the full extent of human-to-human transmission.This is one of the issues that @WHO is monitoring closely.— World Health Organization Western Pacific (@WHOWPRO) January 19, 2020Of the new cases announced this weekend, all involve adults ages 25 to 89. About half are male (78) and half are female (75), according Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, which translated the Wuhan commission’s statement.Of the 198 patients confirmed so far, 28 have recovered or been discharged. Of the 170 people still in the hospital, 126 have mild illness, 35 are listed as severe, and 9 are in critical condition. Three deaths have been now reported. Hospitalized patients in Wuhan are isolated at a designated facility.The number of close contacts under monitoring has risen from 763 to 817, and monitoring is still under way for 90. So far no related cases have been found in contacts. 
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Chinese health officials in Wuhan report 136 new cases of a newly confirmed coronavirus over the past three days – bringing the total number of cases of the potentially deadly virus to nearly 200.This is a huge and troubling spike in the number of cases in just one weekend.Most of the confirmed cases are mild, but at least three deaths are reported.U.S. health officials began screening passengers arriving from Wuhan at three at three airports – San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York.The virus is believed to have started in Wuhan. It belongs to the same family of coronaviruses that includes the common cold as well as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). SARS killed nearly 800 people globally during an outbreak 17 years ago. It also started in China.
 
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Police fired tear gas on Sunday to disperse thousands of anti-government protesters who gathered in a central Hong Kong park, but later spilled onto the streets in violation of police orders.Out in numbers before the demonstration began, police intervened promptly when the rally turned into an impromptu march. Several units of police in riot gear were seen chasing protesters and several arrests were made.A water cannon truck drove on central streets, flanked by an armored jeep, but was not used.Organizers initially applied for a permit for a march, but police only agreed to a static rally in the park, saying previous marches have turned violent.Once protesters spilled onto the streets, some of them, wearing all-black clothing, barricaded the roads with umbrellas and street furniture, dug up bricks from the pavement and smashed traffic lights.The “Universal Siege Against Communism” demonstration was the latest in a relentless series of protests against the government since June, when Hong Kongers took to the streets to voice their anger over a now-withdrawn extradition bill.The protests, which have since broadened to include demands for universal suffrage and an independent investigation into police handling of the demonstrations, had lost some of their intensity in recent weeks.A man walks past as police use tear gas on protesters calling for electoral reforms and a boycott of the Chinese Communist Party in Hong Kong, Jan. 19, 2020.In an apparent new tactic, police have been showing up ahead of time in riot gear, with officers conducting “stop and search” operations near expected demonstrations.”Everyone understands that there’s a risk of stop-and-search or mass arrests. I appreciate Hong Kong people still come out courageously, despite the risk,” said organizer Ventus Lau.On Jan 1, a march of tens of thousands of people ended with police firing tear gas to disperse crowds.The gathering in the park was initially relaxed, with many families with children listening to speeches by activists.In one corner, a group of volunteers set up a stand where people could leave messages on red cards for the lunar new year to be sent to those who have been arrested. One read: “Hong Kongers won’t give up. The future belongs to the youth”.Authorities in Hong Kong have arrested more than 7,000 people, many on charges of rioting that can carry jail terms of up to 10 years. It is unclear how many are still in custody.Anger has grown over the months due to perceptions that Beijing was tightening its grip over the city, which was handed over to China by Britain in 1997 in a deal that ensured it enjoyed liberties unavailable in the mainland.Beijing denies meddling and blames the West for fomenting unrest.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping reinforced his support for embattled Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi Saturday, signing 33 bilateral agreements covering a range of projects, including rail and port ventures to allow China access to the Indian Ocean and to shorten the route for its oil and gas imports from the Persian Gulf.The agreements were signed in the Myanmar capital of Naypyitaw at the end of Xi’s two-day visit, the first to the country by a Chinese head of state in nearly two decades.Xi’s visit came as the Myanmar government faces intense global criticism for a 2017 military campaign that targeted minority Rohingya Muslims, resulting in the deaths of thousands and the exile of nearly 750,000 others.United Nations investigators have described the military campaign as genocide, a charge Myanmar is facing at the International Court of Justice.The two leaders also signed agreements covering the resettlement of internally displaced persons in Myanmar’s Kachin State, on the border with China, and deals pertaining to security, agriculture and information.China has supported Myanmar throughout the Rohingya crisis and is now increasing efforts to solidify its relationship with the Southeast Asian country, a strategically located country in the region.“We are drawing a future road map that will bring to life bilateral relations based on brotherly and sisterly closeness in order to overcome hardships together and provide assistance to each other, Xi said Friday.The agreements are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, an ambitious global infrastructure development and investment plan to facilitate trade from East Asia to Europe.  Xi’s visit coincided with the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Myanmar, then known as Burma, and the first to the country by a Chinese president in the past 19 years. 
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Four more cases have been identified in a viral pneumonia outbreak in the central Chinese city of Wuhan that has killed two people and prompted countries as far away as the United States to take precautionary measures.
The latest cases bring to 45 the number of people who have contracted the illness, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission said Saturday. Five are in serious condition, two died and 15 have been discharged. The others are in stable condition.
The cause of the pneumonia has been traced to a new type of coronavirus.
Health authorities are keen to avoid a repeat of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, another coronavirus that started in southern China in late 2002 and spread to more than two dozen countries, killing nearly 800 people.
The U.S. announced Friday that it would begin screening passengers at three major airports arriving on flights from Wuhan. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it would deploy 100 people to take the temperatures and ask about symptoms of incoming passengers at the Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York City’s Kennedy airports.
At least a half-dozen countries in Asia have started screening incoming airline passengers from central China. The list includes Thailand and Japan, which have together reported three cases of the disease in people who had come from Wuhan. It  is an unusually busy travel period as people take trips to and from China around Lunar New Year, which falls on Jan. 25 this year.
Doctors began seeing a new type of viral pneumonia – fever, cough, difficulty breathing – in people who worked at or visited a food market in the suburbs of Wuhan late last month. The city’s health commission confirmed a second death this week, a 69-year-old man who fell ill on Dec. 31 and died Wednesday.
Officials have said the pneumonia probably spread from animals to people but haven’t been able to rule out the possibility of human-to-human transmission, which would enable it to spread much faster.
No related cases have been found so far among 763 people who had close contact with those diagnosed with the virus in Wuhan. Of them, 665 have been released and 98 remain under medical observation, the Wuhan health authorities said. 
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Russia is rapidly expanding foreign arms deals worldwide, with Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin confirming to the Russian military’s newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda December 20 that Moscow has signed military cooperation pacts with 39 countries in the last five years, many of them in Southeast Asia, including Laos, which has not been buying Russian weapons on this scale for decades.The expansion is raising eyebrows and comes as relations between Russia and NATO have broken down.Analysts said old Cold War alliances with countries such as Laos, Moscow’s appetite for barter deals, and the potential for access to railroads under construction that will provide access to seaports and trade routes along the Vietnamese, Cambodian and Thai coasts, appeal to Moscow, and the arms sales are part of a larger effort by Russia to strengthen its links with these countries.“Moscow’s motives appear to be a combination of commercial and the perhaps disruptive, in the sense that any erosion of U.S. or European defense interests is a de facto win,” Gavin Greenwood, an analyst with A2 Global Risk, a Hong Kong-based security consultancy, told VOA.He said Russia had accounted for 25% of major arms sales in Southeast Asia since 2000, and according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Moscow sold $6.6 billion in arms to Southeast Asia between 2010 and 2017, as much as the U.S. and China combined.The institute also says Russia accounted for 60% of arms sales across Asia and Oceania between 2014 and 2018.However, Russia also needs to offset falling sales to India, and the MiG-29 and Sukhoi-30 fighters purchased by Malaysia in 1995 are nearing the end of their life. Greenwood said any replacement was unlikely to be procured from Russia, as they are also considering deals with U.S. and European suppliers.Southeast Asia focusAs a result  of declining arms sales to India, Russia is falling further behind the U.S. in global arms sales, analysts say,  but it has remained the dominant player in Southeast Asia, where analysts said  South China Sea disputes, terrorism   and competition among rival states is increasing demand for high-tech weaponry.Fomin said progress in developing military cooperation with traditional partners China and India had been made alongside fresh efforts with Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos.“Their efforts to sell are obviously increasing and there’s a sense from some quarters that this is a strategic effort by Moscow – while others would say probably not, it’s commercial,” Greenwood said.Russia remains a primary supplier to Vietnam, accounting for 60% of all military sales to that country – including submarines – and is seeking opportunities in the Philippines while stepping up sales to Malaysia, Indonesia and Myanmar.Meanwhile, strategically important Laos, which forms a buffer between China and Southeast Asia, has increased its spending, acquiring Russian T-72B tanks, BRDM-2M armored vehicles, YAK 130 fighter jets and helicopters.In addition,  Russia and Laos last month launched the nine-day Laros 2019 exercise, their first joint military exercise, with more than 500 soldiers taking part alongside the recently acquired tanks, which was seen as part of a greater effort to deepen military ties with Southeast Asia.Analysts said further joint military exercises with Laos are now in the offing together with more arms and training for Laotian officers in Russian military academies.The timing could be related to Chinese railway construction, “which will connect southern-southwest China to Thailand,” Greenwood said, which would provide further seaport access.FILE – People attend a mobile exhibition installed on freight cars of a train and displaying military equipment, vehicles and weapons, in Sevastopol, Crimea.Ukraine sanctionsIncreased weapon sales worldwide can be traced to Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine six years ago. Sanctions followed and the ruble collapsed, sparking a three-year financial crisis.
 
Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales said military technology is one of Russia’s much-needed strengths.“Annexation of the Crimea was accompanied by very punishing sanctions by the United States and Russia went through a phase of trying to recover by developing its domestic market.“That didn’t work, and they had to do overseas exports and the one thing the Russians have is military technology,” Thayer told VOA, echoing Greenwood.Meanwhile, the issue for most Southeast Asian countries is that access to high-tech weaponry is limited to the U.S., which ties sales to human rights, and Russia, which offers soft loans, state-backed credits, barter deals, spares and servicing with a no such strings attached.  Don Greenlees, senior adviser at the Asialink think tank at the University of Melbourne, said U.S. costs and conditions, coupled with sanctions, mean easier options are available in Russia.“If you want really high-level military technology and you’re a Southeast Asian country you’ve either got to go to Moscow or you’ve got to go Washington. And Washington hasn’t made it terribly easy in recent years for a lot of these countries to obtain the best kit,” he told VOA.“And it’s also more expensive to buy it from Washington,” Greenlees said. “So Russia, for many of these countries, is the arms supplier of choice.”The big pictureThayer said Moscow also must act against any isolation spurred by sanctions and establish itself with Vietnam, with which it has always been a strategic partner, as a natural conduit in developing relations in Southeast Asia, but Laos  “is just one small peg in the larger picture.”Greenlees said Russia’s regional reemergence was still in its early days but from a big-picture geopolitical point of view, it’s the Sino-Russian alignment that concerns everyone.So far,  China has not complained about Russia’s push into its traditional sphere of influence.  Moreover, it also could benefit from potential sales to countries alienated by the U.S. linkage of sales to issues like human rights, which analysts said could lead to a stronger alliance between Moscow and Beijing in Southeast Asia.    “If that leads to a hardening of East-West ‘camps,’ that would be a concern to the region. It could force the issue of ‘taking sides and reduce the opportunities for small to medium sized powers to play the great powers off against each other,” Greenlees said.  
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The United States has long seen North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons as a major national security threat.  But the missiles Pyongyang would use to deliver a nuclear bomb appear to be a different matter. A top U.S. general Friday dismissed concerns North Korea’s rapidly developing missile program is capable, for now, of producing anything that could get by U.S. defenses. “I have 100% confidence,” General John Hyten, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told an audience in Washington.  “I don’t say 100% confidence often. I have 100% confidence in those capabilities against North Korea.” ‘Gift’ wasn’t givenU.S. military and intelligence officials have been keeping an especially close eye on Pyongyang since late last year, when leader Kim Jong Un threatened to give Washington a “Christmas gift” it might not like. At the time, U.S. officials expected some sort of weapons test or a test of one of the country’s new long-range ballistic missiles. Only no such test ever materialized. And with negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang seemingly stalled, there are growing concerns a peaceful, diplomatic solution may be drifting out of reach. Earlier this week, during a news conference at the Pentagon with Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper told reporters the next move was “in Kim Jong Un’s hands.” FILE – Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Japan’s Defense Minister Taro Kono speak during a news conference at the Pentagon in Washington, Jan. 14, 2020.”We continue to send the message to North Korea that the best path forward is through a diplomatic solution that results in the denuclearization of North Korea,” Esper said. “We monitor very closely what’s happening,” Esper added, warning that if necessary, “we remain ready to fight tonight.” Speaking alongside Esper, Kono voiced hope that dialogue could prevail. “Hopefully, he will make the right decision for his own people,” the Japanese minister said of North Korea’s Kim. Nearly 70 testsEven as Pyongyang engaged in talks with the U.S. last year, it launched 13 missile tests, bring the total of tests under Kin Jong Un to almost 70. “They’ve changed the entire structure of the world with the 115th most powerful economy,” Hyten said Friday at the Center for Strategic International Studies.  FILE – People watch a TV that shows a file picture of a North Korean missile for a news report on North Korea firing short-range ballistic missiles, in Seoul, South Korea, July 31, 2019.“North Korea has been building new missiles, new capabilities, new weapons as fast as anyone on the planet,” he added.  “They learned how to go fast.” In contrast to his confidence in defending against North Korean missiles, Hyten warned U.S. systems are not nearly as capable against new and emerging technologies, like hypersonic missiles being developed by Russia and China. “It doesn’t matter what the threat is, if you can’t see it, you can’t defend against it,” the former commander of U.S. Strategic Command warned, calling for space-based sensors while acknowledging their likely hefty price tag. “I would like to see research and development into low-Earth-orbit as well as medium-Earth-orbit,” he said. “That’s the only way to get a global [missile defense] capability that is affordable.” 
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In April, just weeks after his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump collapsed in Hanoi, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un decided to ramp up the pressure on Washington.  “We will wait for a bold decision from the U.S. with patience till the end of this year,” Kim said in a speech to North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly.Just three weeks later, Kim launched his first missiles in nearly a year and a half and would conduct 12 more rounds of launches in 2019, underscoring the urgency of his year-end deadline.At one point in early December, North Korean state media published near-daily warnings of Kim’s deadline, including one threat from a Foreign Affairs Ministry official regarding a potentially sinister “Christmas gift” for the U.S.The top U.S. Air Force general in the Pacific region said he expected North Korea’s gift to be a long-range missile launch. The U.S. increased surveillance flights around the Korean peninsula, apparently on alert for weapons tests.The Christmas gift never came, though.  Maybe, some analysts said, North Korea was waiting for Kim’s annual New Year’s speech to unveil a major, provocative announcement.  That didn’t really happen either. Kim’s New Year’s comments were relatively restrained, striking a more pessimistic than provocative tone.  All of this raises questions. Why did North Korea steadily raise tensions for much of 2019, only to let them apparently fizzle out once the deadline passed, and what does that say about how North Korea will act in 2020?North Korean ‘strategic patience’The short answer is that nobody knows.  One big clue is Kim’s New Year’s remarks, which came at the end of an important meeting of ruling party politicians in Pyongyang.  Kim warned the world would soon witness a “new strategic weapon” and said he no longer feels bound by his moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear tests, which he unilaterally declared in April 2018, just as his diplomacy with Trump was beginning.FILE – A man watches a TV screen showing a file image of North Korea’s missile launch during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Jan. 1, 2020.Kim did not formally abandon nuclear talks, though. Instead, he said their progress depends on the U.S. — progress that won’t likely come anytime soon, he added. North Korea, he said, should be prepared for a “long-term” standoff with Washington.That could be North Korea’s version of “strategic patience,” according to North Korea analyst Koo Kab-woo. That is a reference to former U.S. President Barack Obama’s attempt to apply carefully calibrated economic and military pressure until Pyongyang was ready to make concessions at the negotiating table.For North Korea, strategic patience includes emphasizing “self-reliance, an increase in its nuclear deterrent, and stronger diplomacy that could bring about the denuclearization [of North Korea] if the U.S. lifts its confrontational policies,” said Koo, a scholar at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, at a recent conference.While that strategy may include more weapons tests, as hinted at in Kim’s speech, North Korea may be reluctant to cross any “red line” that would prompt a major reaction by Washington, Koo said.  An intercontinental ballistic missile or nuclear test could also upset China and Russia when both countries are pressuring the U.S. to relax sanctions on North Korea, analysts have said.  As a result, North Korea may not fully provoke or fully engage the U.S. in the near future — a policy of intentional ambiguity, Koo said.Bigger moves coming?Not everyone agrees with the strategic patience analogy, though.”Strategic patience implies that North Korea has expectations from U.S.-DPRK diplomacy,” said Rachel Minyoung Lee, an analyst for the North Korea-focused NK News online publication, using the abbreviation for North Korea’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.  According to Lee, Kim’s New Year’s comments signaled he has “little to no hope” for a diplomatic breakthrough.”My feeling is that he is buying time for himself, not because he is hopeful of concessions from the U.S., but because he is not ready to showcase the ‘new strategic weapon’ yet,” she said.  There’s still a possibility that North Korea may act more forcefully this year, Lee said.”It could be that Kim feels it’s not the right time to provoke. It could be the China factor, it could be that Kim is waiting for the right moment in the U.S. presidential election, or it could be that he wants to see some progress on the problems on the economic front,” she said.  Status quoIf North Korea is reluctant to upset the status quo for now, though, that may be just fine for Trump, who is entering a more intense phase of his reelection campaign and has been focused on other foreign policy issues, such as Iran.FILE – U.S. President Donald Trump meets with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas, in Panmunjom, South Korea, June 30, 2019.”As long as North Korea doesn’t launch long-range missiles and doesn’t test nuclear devices, I think Trump can claim that everything is alright,” said Artyom Lukin, an international relations scholar at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, Russia.Trump’s reelection campaign has portrayed the North Korea talks as a major foreign policy win, and Trump remains publicly optimistic about their eventual success, even as North Korea stormed away from talks and conducted a near-record number of weapons tests in 2019.  However, there does appear to be a limit for Trump. Last month, he signaled he would be disappointed if Kim resumed ICBM or nuclear tests. “He knows I have an election coming up. I don’t think he wants to interfere with that, but we’ll have to see,” Trump said.Trump may be employing his own version of strategic patience, according to Lukin, describing the approach as: “We are ready to talk when you are ready, but we can wait.”Who will move first?If both the U.S. and North Korea are showing signs of “strategic patience,” the big question is: Who can afford to wait longer?  In Lukin’s view, the situation is much more urgent for North Korea.”Any radical move they make is only going to make their position worse. If they start testing long-range missiles, it will carry all sorts of risks for them. If they start real denuclearization, it’s also a very risky thing,” Lukin said.”The only thing that’s left for Kim Jong Un is to wait, wait, and wait. But you could wait a long time — you could wait forever and nothing could happen, actually,” he added.  Signs of frustrationOne sign of North Korean frustration came last week, when senior North Korean Foreign Affairs Ministry official Kim Kye Gwan accused the U.S. of taking advantage of the relationship between Trump and Kim.Though the Trump-Kim relationship remains “not bad,” it is also not enough to ensure the talks progress, he said. “Although Chairman Kim Jong Un has … good personal feelings about President Trump, they are, in the true sense of the word, ‘personal,'” the diplomat said.  Nuclear talks can only resume, Kim said, once the U.S. agrees to totally accept all of North Korea’s demands. “But we know well that the U.S. is neither ready nor able to do so,” he added.
 
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With billboards, banners, fanfare and flags, the government of Myanmar is welcoming Xi Jinping, president of the People’s Republic of China, for a two-day state visit beginning Friday that is expected to mark the 70th anniversary of China-Myanmar relations with agreements for infrastructure projects key to Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.As with any long-term connection, there have been ups, downs and detours.This will mark Xi’s first visit to Myanmar since 2009 before Xi became president and party chief,” Murray Hiebert, senior associate, South Asia Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., told VOA. “After that visit, Myanmar launched reforms, including freeing political prisoners, creating more independence for the media, opening up the economy, deepening relations with the U.S., and cancelling work on the Myitsone Dam which was a big priority for china. Since 2017, Myanmar has again had a falling out with the U.S. because of the expulsion of nearly a million Rohingya Muslim refugees. This [visit] provides an opening for China to build deeper ties with Myanmar again.”Yun Sun, co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, told VOA, that Xi’s visit is “uniquely high-level,” pointing to last week’s official media briefing conducted by Chinese vice foreign minister Luo Zhaohui.With the visit Xi “is consolidating his kingdom,” Priscilla Clapp, the chief of mission and permanent charge d’ affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Burma from 1999-2002 told VOA. “Myanmar represents to China the far western province. … I think it is China’s ambition to control Myanmar through economic and other means.”Clapp continued, “I think China is making a determined effort to harness all of Southeast Asia to the Chinese sphere of influence so it’s not just Myanmar. … Myanmar’s a gateway not only to the Indian Ocean but other parts of southeast Asia.”The close post-World War II association of the two nations, which share a long border, began when Myanmar, then known as Burma, was the first non-Communist country to recognize the People’s Republic of China in 1949. The two nations established diplomatic relations a year later.China defends Myanmar Today, as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, China has defended Myanmar since it began a military campaign against the Rohingya in 2011. A United Nations fact-finding mission described the campaign as “the gravest crimes under international law,” and called for Myanmar’s senior military officials to face investigation and prosecution for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes. This week, Amnesty International’s Regional Director, Nicholas Bequelin, said “China must stop using its position in the U.N. Security Council to shield Myanmar’s senior generals from accountability. This has only emboldened the military’s relentless campaign of human rights violations and war crimes against ethnic minorities across the country.”Despite international outcry about treatment of the Rohingya, China stepped up its investments in Myanmar, filling a void left by those departing in part because of the human rights issues. China is the second biggest investor in Myanmar, after Singapore, according to the World Bank. Myanmar’s exports to China, its largest trading partner, were worth $5.5 billion in 2018, while imports were worth $6.2 billion.”We have seen that China has achieved a great success in exploring and following a path suitable for its economic development since the reform and opening up,” Pe Myint, the Union Minister for Information told Reuters. “For Myanmar, we are happy for China, as it’s like our relative and friend that has achieved success. It’s worth our learning.”And it is those investments that will be in the spotlight during Xi’s visit. Last Friday China’s Luo told reporters in Beijing the purpose of the visit was to strengthen relations and cooperation on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)  and “materialize” the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a series of projects connecting China with the Indian Ocean. Launched in 2013 by then Chinese president Xi Jinping, BRI includes hundreds of infrastructure projects financed and constructed in part or in whole by Chinese entities that are envisioned as connecting almost all of Asia and Africa.Belt and RoadIn Myanmar, the CMEC is a Belt and Road component.“If you look at the design of the CMEC, … you can see that it’s designed by China to harness all of the basic infrastructure of Myanmar to Chinese infrastructure, and effectively create another western province beyond Yunnan,” said Clapp.It is also an area notable for long-running conflicts between the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups, which are widely believed to receive their weaponry from Chinese sources even as Beijing plays a role in negotiating peace. China is “playing a big role in the peace process but they’re playing both sides of it,” said Clapp. “I think that China’s interest in the long term is keeping some instability on the border so you have a firewall, as it were, between developing democracy in Myanmar, and the lack of democracy in China.”Xi’s visit comes after Myanmar pulled away from China in 2011 over public opposition to the Myitsone Dam, a $3.6 billion hydropower project. It remains a heated topic, with more than 50 civil society organizations calling on Xi to scratch the project in Kachin State in an open letter issued on Wednesday. Nau Kai Tu Kaung, a Kachin environmentalist told VOA’s Burmese Service that Chinese companies are also involved in destructive environmental endeavors such as rare earth mining.“[The dam] is highly unpopular,” said Clapp. “It would erupt as a political issue in Myanmar” if the project were revived. She pointed out that the dam’s original design sent more than 90% of the generated electricity to China. “But there were no plans for a transmission line, even into China,” she added. “So it didn’t make sense.”To succeed today “you have to completely redesign it, and … it has to feed in to the grid in Myanmar, it has to serve the electrical needs of Myanmar, not China. Yunnan doesn’t need the electricity now.”Xi is scheduled to meet Myanmar’s de factor leader Aung San Suu Kyi and army chief Min Aung Hlaing in the capital Naypyitaw, as well with the heads of an array of political parties. Chinese Ambassador to Myanmar Chen Hai said dozens of agreements will be signed during Xi’s visit.Clapp said that while the countries may sign memoranda of understanding “those are not final agreements. Even the CMEC, the China Myanmar Economic Corridor is an MOU so it’s aspirational.”The talks are also expected to touch on a project that involves a deep-sea port in Rakhine state that would give China access to the Indian Ocean. The port project was scaled back in 2018 over fears of a debt-trap, a move critics believe China uses “to gain influence by bankrupting its partners and bending them to its will.”Clapp said none of the massive infrastructure projects is going to happen quickly. The projects cannot become final until environmental, social and economic assessments are completed, and a business plan completed for each project. Financing for the projects is unclear because “the Myanmar government is not going to take any sovereign debt” and any financing by “big Chinese companies and their partners” will take a long time to put together, especially for large projects. “I think the most that we’re going to see in the near term is small projects; for example, there are several economic zones along the border that are already under development. The problem with those is that they’re largely unregulated, and they’re going to erupt at some point because they’re bringing in a lot of Chinese migration into Myanmar, [which is] going to cause a big problem with the Myanmar population. In the Karen State, in places where these economic zones are already underway, it’s going to start causing social problems. And this is something that China, Beijing needs to think about over the long terms because it could really destroy the relationship between the two countries if they’re not careful.”Liyuan Lu is with VOA’s Mandarin Service and Kyaw Zan Tha is with VOA’s Burmese Service. 
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