The coronavirus shutdown and the summer bushfires have ended Australia’s run of 29 years of uninterrupted economic growth. Gross domestic product, or national income, for the March quarter fell, dragging Australia into recession for the first time since the early 1990s.George H. W. Bush was the U.S. president when Australia last went into recession in 1991. That proud record of almost 30 years of uninterrupted growth has come to a shuddering halt.In a recession an economy shrinks, or goes into reverse.Latest figures show the Australian economy was in trouble before the COVID-19 outbreak after a devastating bushfire season, a slowdown in tourism and weak domestic demand. The pandemic has only added to the decline.Lockdown restrictions to stem the spread of the coronavirus saw thousands of businesses forced to close, including gyms, cafes, theaters and shops.Unemployment is expected to double to 10 percent, and massive financial stimulus packages have sent national debt soaring.The government is warning that the outlook for the months ahead is dire.However, Australia appears in better shape than other G7 and other Asian countries, which have had much bigger falls in national income.“What we were facing was an economist’s version of Armageddon,” Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said. “We have avoided the economic fate and the health fate of other nations because of the measures that we have taken as a nation. Now, the June quarter, the economic impact will be severe.”The governor of the Reserve Bank, Philip Lowe, said Australia was facing the toughest conditions since the Great Depression. But he, too, said it was “possible that the depth of the downturn will be less than earlier expected.”These are anxious times for many Australians. As unemployment increases, many of those in work are feeling greater job insecurity and face higher levels of household debt. All this against a backdrop of fears of a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.Australia has recorded just over 7,200 confirmed coronavirus cases. The majority of patients have recovered, but 102 have died.Various lockdown restrictions, including the reopening of schools, bars, cafes and beauty salons are being gradually eased across the country.
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Category: East
East news. East is the direction toward which the Earth rotates about its axis, and therefore the general direction from which the Sun appears to rise. The practice of praying towards the East is older than Christianity, but has been adopted by this religion as the Orient was thought of as containing mankind’s original home
Hong Kong Legislature Holds Final Debate on Chinese National Anthem
Hong Kong’s legislature began final debate Thursday on a controversial bill that would criminalize showing disrespect for China’s national anthem.Thursday’s proceedings were interrupted when two pro-democracy lawmakers rushed to the front of the chamber and held up a sign that said “A murderous regime stinks for 10,000 years” before dropping a pot of stinking liquid on the floor. The lawmakers were ejected from the chamber.The bill calls for anyone who intentionally insults the anthem by booing or any other means, to face up to three years in prison and fines of more than $6,000. The measure was introduced last year in response to fans regularly booing “March of the Volunteers” during football [soccer] matches.The bill is expected to be approved sometime Thursday.The global financial hub was engulfed by massive and often violent anti-government protests during the last half of 2019, sparked initially by a controversial extradition bill that eventually evolved into a demand for greater democracy. Many Hong Kongers fear their autonomy is steadily being eroded by a central government on the mainland that is increasingly meddling in its affairs.The vote on the national anthem bill comes exactly a week after China’s rubber stamp parliament approved a new national security law for Hong Kong that would prevent and punish acts of “secession, subversion or terrorism activities” that threaten national security.
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N. Korea Warns S. Korea to Stop Defectors from Scattering Anti-North Leaflets
The sister of North Korea’s leader has warned South Korea to stop defectors from sending leaflets into the demilitarized zone separating the countries, saying it may cancel a recent bilateral military agreement if the activity persists.Kim Yo Jong, who serves unofficially as Kim Jong Un’s chief of staff, issued the warning in a statement carried by state news agency KCNA on Thursday.She was referring to thousands of “anti-DPRK leaflets” recently dumped along the North’s side of the heavily fortified DMZ titled “Defectors from the North.”DPRK, or the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, is the North’s official name.”If such an act of evil intention committed before our eyes is left to take its own course under the pretext of ‘freedom of individuals’ and ‘freedom of expression’, the south Korean authorities must face the worst phase shortly,” the KCNA statement said.Kim Yo Jong warned of the possible scrapping of the inter-Korean military agreement that promised to eliminate practical threats of war as a result of the clandestine leafletting.The military pact reached in 2018 was “hardly of any value,” she said.She also warned the North will completely withdraw from the Kaesong industrial project and shut down the joint liaison office in the North’s border city, unless Seoul stopped such actions.The KCNA report did not single out any individuals for blame in the leafletting. But Kim Yo Jong’s comments come after a former North Korean diplomat and another North Korean defector won parliamentary seats in South Korea’s general election in April.Kim Yo Jong has been the most visible presence around her brother in the past two years. She serves formally as a vice director of the ruling Workers’ Party’s powerful Central Committee
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US to Bar Air China Planes From Entering Country
The United States said Wednesday it will prohibit Air China planes from entering the country beginning on June 16 as part of an effort to pressure Beijing to allow American air carriers to resume flights to China. The U.S. Department of Transportation said the move came after China did not conform to an existing deal between the two countries that addresses international travel. The agency said China rejected requests from United Airlines and Delta Airlines to resume flights to China on June 1. China “remains unable” to say when it will revise its rules “to allow U.S. carriers to reinstate scheduled passenger flights,” the agency said. The requests from the U.S. airliners came even as Chinese carriers have continued flights to the U.S. during the coronavirus pandemic, further escalating tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The U.S. is also restricting Chinese passenger airline charter flights and will warn carriers not to expect approvals. Because of the pandemic, the U.S. barred most non-U.S. citizens who had been in China within the previous 14 days from entering the U.S. but did not impose restrictions on Chinese flights. Most large U.S. airlines voluntarily stopped all passenger flights to China in February. Delta Airlines said Wednesday “we support and appreciate the U.S. government’s actions to enforce our rights and ensure fairness.” United Airlines did not immediately comment, nor did the Chinese Embassy in Washington. An earlier version of this story mistakenly featured a photo of a Taiwan China Airlines plane, which is distinct from China’s Air China. VOA regrets the error.
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Asian Markets Post Solid Gains for 3rd Straight Day
Asian markets rose for a third consecutive day Wednesday thanks to growing optimism over a gradual post-pandemic recovery. The Nikkei in Tokyo closed 1.2% higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is trading 1.2% higher in late afternoon trading. Sydney’s S&P/ASX index and the TSEC in Taiwan are both up 1.7%, while the KOSPI in Seoul is 2.8% higher. The Shanghai Composite index is trending upward but is basically unchanged. Oil markets are also on the upswing, with U.S. crude selling at $37.59 per barrel, up 2.1%, while Brent crude is selling at $40.19 per barrel, up 1.5%. All three major U.S. indexes are trending upward in futures trading Wednesday, indicating another good day for investors on Wall Street.
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Indigenous Australians Show Solidarity With US Protesters
As protests take place in the United States of America, indigenous families who have had bad experiences with law enforcement say police brutality is a serious problem in Australia. Aboriginal Australians make up about 3 percent of the total population, but almost a third of the prison population are indigenous. David Dungay Jr died in a prison hospital in Sydney in 2015 after being forcibly moved to an observation cell, restrained face down by guards, and sedated. The incident was captured on video, and the inmate was heard telling staff that he could not breathe ten times. The 26-year old Australian Aboriginal man eventually lost consciousness and could not be revived.For his family, the death of George Floyd many thousands of kilometers away in the US state of Minnesota has brought back traumatic memories. They believe the two men died in similar circumstances, although David Dungay Jr.’s death attracted no international headlines and no formal charges were made. His mother Leetona Dungay believes George Floyd’s death is another example of deep-seated racism. “It was very devastating to look at that, too, because of the memory of putting my son in the ground just like that had to put George (Floyd), their son, in the ground. Black lives do matter and Aboriginal lives matter. David Junior life’s matter(s),” Dungay said.
More than 430 indigenous Australians have died in custody since a landmark inquiry in the early 1990s. The royal commission made sweeping recommendations. Its key finding was the need to reduce the rate at which Aboriginal people are jailed. That has not happened. 30 percent of Australia’s prison inmates are indigenous, as are half of those in youth detention. However, Australia’s original inhabitants make up just 3 percent of the national population. Campaigners have long argued that Aboriginal Australians suffer widespread racism and discrimination.This week, an Australian police officer was filmed tripping up an Aboriginal boy, who was then pinned to the ground. Onlookers claim unnecessary force was used, but assistant police commissioner Mick Willing says it was not an act of brutality. “I am concerned that people will use this video, this footage, to create it into something it is not. As I said, we are all well aware of what is happening overseas but this is not the United States of America. We have very, very good relations with our local community,” Willing said.Four Australian states have indigenous courts. They abide by Australian law, but allow Aboriginal elders to take part in the process to help create a more culturally-sensitive forum for sentencing Indigenous offenders. Researchers say that Aboriginal people have lived in Australia for at least 65,000 years, and believe that this predates the human settlement of Europe and the Americas. Their land was colonized by the British in 1788. Despite a rich history and enduring culture, the Aboriginal people suffer high rates of poverty, ill-health and imprisonment.
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Singapore Begins to Lift Lockdown on Battered Economy
Singaporeans got perms and car repairs Tuesday when the first phase of life after lockdown began, but that will not be enough economic activity to stave off what looks to be the worst recession in the state’s history. If Singapore’s economy shrinks between 4% and 7% in 2020 because of Covid-19, which is what the trade ministry forecast last week, that would be the biggest downturn on record. The current record is from 1964, when the post-colonial economy shrank 3.1%, according to data from the World Bank. As an election looms, raising the stakes for decision makers, other records are being broken. The downturn forced Singapore to dip into its reserves, marking the first time that it has done so twice in a year. The island nation has tapped into savings to unveil yet another stimulus, the “Fortitude Budget,” to help those hurt by the virus emergency. The budget gives 33 billion Singapore dollars for programs such as wage subsidies, worker training and digitalization of things like payments and invoicing. Soh Pui Ming, who heads the tax division of consulting firm Ernst & Young Solutions LLP, said she is particularly impressed by the aid for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) “The Fortitude Budget continues to provide timely financial relief to businesses and individuals, while adopting a forward-looking approach,” she said. “I am most impressed with how the government is using this downtime to help our SMEs accelerate their transformation and upskill our workforce.” The parliament will take up debate on the budget on Thursday, which is the fourth aid package of the year, after the Unity, Resilience and Solidarity Budgets, adding up to 92.9 billion Singapore dollars in aid. Hong Kong tailwind Nearby Hong Kong faces an existential crisis after China passed a law to crack down on perceived security threats on the island. For business fleeing the Hong Kong turmoil, Singapore is a common alternative. Inflows have started already, with foreign currency deposits in Singapore banks in April at nearly four times the amount in April 2019, according to data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the central bank. That is only one example of the tailwinds in Singapore despite COVID-19. Some businesses that will grow in 2020 are those dealing in biomedical products and information technology, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry. There “are pockets of resilience in the Singapore economy,” the ministry said in a press release last week. With the economy reopening further on Tuesday, Singaporeans got to work in new ways. Some had to scan QR codes when they entered office buildings, part of a national program to trace contacts of people who get infected with the virus. Others added sanitation procedures like using machines to sterilize objects. “We are doing our part to combat the spread of the virus by encouraging our customers to shop online,” Wendy Han, co-founder of a floral shop in Singapore called Floristique, said. “Even after more and more firms resume business as usual at their physical stores, we will still encourage our customers and our team to practice effective social distancing.”
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US, South Korea Agree to Fund Furloughed Workers on US Bases
Thousands of furloughed South Korean workers could soon return to their jobs on U.S. military bases in South Korea under the terms of a deal announced by the Pentagon. In a statement late Tuesday, the Defense Department said it has accepted South Korea’s offer to fund labor costs for all Korean national employees on U.S. bases through the end of 2020. The agreement does not completely resolve a months-long impasse between Washington and Seoul over how to split the cost of the roughly 28,000 U.S. troops in South Korea. The allies’ previous military cost-sharing agreement expired at the end of the year. Over 4,000 South Korean civilian employees were placed on unpaid leave in March, after temporary U.S. funding ran out. Military officials and analysts have warned the furloughs could jeopardize military readiness, especially amid the coronavirus pandemic and increasing North Korean provocations. Under the new agreement, South Korea will provide more than $200 million for the entire Korean national (KN) workforce through the end of 2020, the Pentagon said. The U.S. said it expects all Korean employees to return to work “no later than mid-June.” “This decision enables a more equitable sharing of the KN employee labor burden by (South Korea) and the U.S.,” the U.S. statement said. “More importantly, it sustains the Alliance’s number one priority – our combined defense posture.” A South Korean foreign ministry official confirmed the arrangement, according to the Yonhap news agency. But the announcement does not mean that a broader cost-sharing deal, or Special Measures Agreement (SMA), has been reached. Critical defense infrastructure projects will remain suspended and all logistics support contracts for USFK will continue to be paid completely by the United States, the Pentagon statement said. “Burden sharing will remain out of balance for an Alliance that values and desires parity,” the U.S. statement added. “USFK’s mid- and long-term force readiness remains at risk.” President Donald Trump, who has long accused South Korea of taking advantage of U.S. protection, last month said he rejected South Korea’s latest offer. The negotiations have spilled over into the public – a rarity for such talks – greatly straining the alliance. South Korean officials have said publicly that a 13 percent increase is their final offer. Washington is reportedly now asking for a 50 percent increase. “It does not seem like we are anywhere close to an agreement,” said David Maxwell, an analyst who focuses on U.S.-South Korea military relations at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “This is only a band-aid. It will not stop the bleeding in the alliance.” Any eventual cost-sharing deal must be approved by South Korea’s National Assembly, and observers have noted that allies of South Korean President Moon Jae-in may be less likely to cede ground on the issue after winning a landslide election last month. It is not clear if the narrower labor proposal will need to be approved by parliament.
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Australia Investigates Treatment of Journalists at US Protest
Australia’s foreign ministery Tuesday said it would investigate an assault by U.S. police and security forces on two Australian television journalists outside the White House as U.S. President Trump had the area cleared for a photo opportunity.Foreign Minister Marise Payne said she has asked the Australian Embassy in Washington to investigate the incident in which the journalists can be seen on video being slammed with a riot shield, punched and hit with a baton while broadcasting from the protest.Video showed Australian TV reporter Amelia Brace being clubbed with a truncheon and cameraman Tim Myers being hit with a riot shield and punched in the face by police clearing Washington’s Lafayette Square of protesters Monday. The square is directly across the street from the White House.DC Episcopal Bishop: ‘I Am Outraged’ by Trump Church Visit Budde said the church was ‘just completely caught off-guard’ by the visit, with ‘no sense that this was a sacred space to be used for sacred purposes’ The incident was widely broadcast in Australia, causing consternation in a country that has been a close U.S. ally. The journalists said they were later shot with rubber bullets and tear-gassed, which Brace said left the pair “a bit sore”. Payne said wants further advice on how she would go about registering Australia’s strong concerns with the responsible local Washington authorities, indicating a formal complaint would follow.U.S. ambassador to Australia Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr. said on Twitter: “We take mistreatment of journalists seriously, as do all who take democracy seriously.” He said the U.S. stays “steadfast in our commitment to protecting journalists and guaranteeing equal justice under law for all.”Trump Threatens Wide Use of Military Force Against ProtestersDeclaring ‘acts of domestic terror’ have been committed by violent demonstrators, president vows to end ‘riots and lawlessness’ that has spread throughout countryLocal police — with support from military personnel — had forcibly cleared the square of peaceful protesters to allow U.S. President Donald Trump to conduct a photo opportunity.Trump has faced fierce criticism for his handling of days of protests over the death in police custody of an unarmed African-American man in Minneapolis.George Floyd died after a white police officer knelt on his neck for nearly nine minutes.
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China Reduces Paperwork for Gold Exporters
China’s central bank and customs authority said on Tuesday they would simplify procedures for companies exporting gold, following a slump in domestic demand for the metal. The economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic led dealers to sell gold in China, the world’s largest bullion consumer, at massive discounts versus the international spot prices. Companies applying to export gold no longer need to submit physical gold inventory certificates approved by the State Council, China’s cabinet, or gold production capacity certificates, the central bank said. The People’s Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs said in a statement the changes were aimed at reducing paperwork to make the process more convenient. Analysts said they were unlikely to have a significant impact on gold flows. China has strict controls on exporting gold, and typically consumes much more gold than it produces. But prices in the country in April fell as much as $70 an ounce below international prices — the biggest discount since Reuters records going back to at least 2014 — and are now around $20 below international rates. In April, China’s exports of gold via Hong Kong exceeded its gold imports via the territory for the first time since at least 2011, and Switzerland, which usually sends tens of tonnes of gold to China every month, shipped no metal to the country at all.
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Asian Markets Again in Positive Territory
Asian markets are once again proving resilient to the upheaval caused by the coronavirus pandemic, fraying diplomatic ties between the United States and China and the escalating social unrest in the U.S. Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei index finished Tuesday’s trading session 1.1% higher. Hong Kong is 0.7% higher in late afternoon trading, while Shanghai is up 0.2%. Sydney’s S&P/ASX is 0.3% higher, the KOSPI index in Seoul gained 1%, and Taiwan’s TSEC index is up 0.4%. In oil futures trading, U.S. crude is selling at $35.69 per barrel, up 0.7%, while Brent crude, the international standard, is selling at $38.73 per barrel, up 1%. In equities futures trading, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are down, but basically unchanged, while the Nasdaq is up 0.2%.
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Australian Bushfire Probe Scrutinizes Communication Problems
Claims that communication problems during Australia’s deadly summer of bushfires left communities dangerously exposed are coming under scrutiny Tuesday when hearings resume at a Royal Commission. With just months before the start of the next wildfire season the nation’s highest form of inquiry is looking at ways to make Australia more resilient and safer. For almost eight weeks the huge Green Valley fire raged near the border of New South Wales and Victoria. It was ignited by lightning in December. But emergency crews called in from across Australia were using different radio frequencies and were often unable to contact each other. Some firefighters say that in the heat of battle the result was a dangerous lack of information. The Royal Commission into the ‘Black Summer’ blazes is investigating calls for an overhaul of the communications network.
Greg Mullins, a former New South Wales Fire and Rescue Commissioner, says the response to the Green Valley blaze highlighted how out-dated the current system is. “We had fire-fighters from every state and territory assisting. But, for example, Melbourne Metropolitan Fire Brigade units in regional New South Wales not being able to speak to the local units on their radio channels. Country Fire Authority from Victoria, the same issue,” he said.FILE – Firefighters battle the Morton Fire as it burns a home near Bundanoon, New South Wales, Australia, Jan. 23, 2020.Emergency authorities say that liaison officers were deployed to boost cooperation between crews from different jurisdictions that included volunteers and professional firefighters. But the New South Wales Rural Fire Service concedes there is plenty of work to be done to fix the problems permanently.
The Black Summer blazes in Australia killed more than 30 people, destroyed 3,000 homes and scorched 12 million hectares of land. FILE – A member of the Australian Defense Force picks up an injured Koala after it was treated for burns at a makeshift field hospital at the Kangaroo Island Wildlife Park on Kangaroo Island, January 14, 2020.It is estimated that one billion animals died in the disaster. South-eastern Australia is one of the world’s most fire-prone regions. The fires last summer were exacerbated by a long drought, and were the worst in the nation’s modern history.
The impact of climate change on bushfires is also being examined by the commission, as well as land management. Scientists say that global warming is influencing the frequency and severity of the fires in Australia.
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Hong Kong Leader Accuses US of ‘Double Standard’ Over Protests
Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said the violent protests across the United States are an example of foreign governments applying a “double standard” when it comes to China’s approach to quelling a year of anti-Beijing protests. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced last week that it no longer considers Hong Kong autonomous from China’s autocratic rule after the mainland’s rubber-stamp parliament approved a bill that would prevent and punish acts of “secession, subversion or terrorism activities” that threaten national security, and allow Chinese national security organs to set up agencies in Hong Kong. Lam told reporters Tuesday that the U.S. and other governments who have criticized China “are very concerned about their own national security, but on our national security…they are looking at it through tinted glasses.”People walk past extra barricades that have been erected near the Legislative Council in Hong Kong on May 26, 2020, ahead of planned protests.She called reporters’ attention to the reaction in the U.S. over the pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong last year, and compared that to how local governments in the U.S. are handling the unrest sparked by the death of a black man in police custody in Minneapolis last week. With 1,300 American businesses operating in the financial hub, Lam warned the United States will be “hurting their own interests” if the Trump administration suspends Hong Kong’s preferential status that has made the city a top U.S. trading partner. Hong Kong’s government announced Wednesday that Lam will lead a delegation of senior Hong Kong officials to Beijing on Wednesday to present her views on the planned national security laws to Chinese government officials.
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Malaysia Struggles to Shake COVID-19 as PM Quarantines, Challenges Mount
In Malaysia the challenges keep piling on. The new prime minister went into a COVID-19 quarantine, even as he tries to crush rivals’ Game-of-Thrones-style attempt at his job. Hordes broke travel restrictions to celebrate Ramadan, leading to fears of a virus surge. And the economy has contracted, an outcome exacerbated by decreasing income from fallen oil prices. While COVID-19 spares few nations, Malaysia faces a combination of issues in particular. Not least of these is the unprecedented power struggle in March, which brought the party that ruled Malaysia for 50 years back in office. Muhyiddin Yassin has been prime minister less than three months, with much of that time spent fighting off power grabs as well as fighting off the pandemic. In this photo released by Malaysia’s Department of Information, the country’s new Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin poses for pictures on his first day at the prime minister’s office in Putrajaya, Malaysia, March 2, 2020.Now he’s in a two-week quarantine because another official came down with the virus. Adding to the tense political mood, rumors swirled that he went to Singapore for medical treatment, forcing Muhyiddin to deny the rumors last week. “I wish to state that these are false claims and are not true at all,” he said, assuring the public that he continues to work from home in Kuala Lumpur. “Nevertheless, at a time when the nation is battling the COVID-19 pandemic, I will ensure that discussions are ongoing in planning the strategy to fight the disease.” The Southeast Asian nation faces a confluence of “political uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, relatively high corporate debt” and decreased oil prices, said Raphie Hayat, a senior economist at Rabo Research Global Economics & Markets. “Oil represents 14% of Malaysia’s exports and comprises almost 20% of the government’s revenue,” he said. “The latter will also hamper the government’s ability to mitigate the negative economic effects of COVID-19.” While officials want to reopen the economy, new virus cases continue to be recorded daily, including in the triple digits on some days. The number of tasks that the state must tackle is not letting up. Infections have broken out among undocumented migrants, whom officials are treating while trying to fend off xenophobic complaints. Many citizens broke curfew to be with family on Ramadan and police have arrested thousands of people for breaking the Movement Control Order. A police officer arrives to disperse Muslims praying outside the closed National Mosque to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, amid the coronavirus outbreak, in Kuala Lumpur, May 24, 2020.They have also arrested citizens who criticized the official handling of COVID-19, including journalist Wan Noor Hayati Wan Alias. She faces six years in prison after questioning why Malaysia allowed Chinese tourists to enter the island of Penang as the virus broke out. “They dismissed early concerns and warnings about the coronavirus as ‘fake news,’” she said of officials in an interview published by the Committee to Protect Journalists. Economists note that the virus emergency has caused gross domestic product to shrink 2% in the first quarter of 2020, and things will likely get worse before they get better. The fall in GDP was driven by decreases in exports and investment as foreigners demand fewer products and travel less. “Consumer behavior is unlikely to return quickly to anything like normal, while fear of contracting the virus remains,” Alex Holmes, a senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, a research company, said. He doubts that the central bank, the Bank Negara Malaysia, will stop at its latest decision to cut a key interest rate to 2% in early May. That was a bid to stoke demand in the economy and was already the lowest rate since 2009, at the height of the Global Financial Crisis. “With growth set to be much worse than the bank is expecting,” Holmes said, “further rate cuts are only a matter of time.”
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Hong Kong Tiananmen Vigil Officially Banned
Hong Kong police on Monday formally banned an annual candlelit vigil to mourn the victims of the crackdown on the 1989 Tiananmen pro-democracy movement that has taken place uninterrupted for 30 years, saying the event would pose a “major threat to public health”, said organizers.In response the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China is asking Hong Kongers to hold individual commemorations through small gatherings, lighting candles at home, or online meetings on Thursday night, the 31st anniversary of the military crackdown.Already, after the Hong Kong government extended a ban on gatherings imposed over the coronavirus outbreak to June 4, the group had urged supporters to light candles wherever they are in the city on the anniversary.Richard Tsoi, the group’s spokesman, told VOA that its members still plan to gather at Victoria Park to light candles in groups of eight, in order not to breach the government’s social distancing restrictions, and would stream the event live online.He voiced fears that this year’s Tiananmen commemoration might be Hong Kong’s last, as national security laws imposed by China on Hong Kong would prevent and punish “acts and activities” that threaten national security, including secession, subversion and terrorism and foreign interference. The legislation would also allow Chinese national security organs to set up agencies in Hong Kong.“There is a real danger that this might be the last time,” said Tsoi. “The definition of subversion under the national security law is broad and this means room for (this kind of) activities would be narrowed.”A pro-democracy demonstrator wearing a face mask waves the British colonial Hong Kong flag as another one holds a sign during a protest against new national security legislation in Hong Kong, China, June 1, 2020.The alliance’s secretary-general Lee Cheuk-yan also expressed concerns over whether the vigil would be banned next year and whether chanting “end one-party dictatorship” — a slogan chanted every year at the vigil — would be regarded subversive under the new national security laws.”It’s a litmus test of one country two systems, if they suppress us, it means that one country two systems is no more,” he was cited by public broadcaster RTHK as saying.Amnesty International has also expressed concern about the banning of the Honk Kong vigil. “By deeming this important memorial event ‘illegal’, the police have again needlessly exacerbated rising tensions when thousands of people simply want to light a candle for those who lost their lives during the horrific events of 4 June, 1989,” said Amnesty International’s Deputy Director for East and South East Asia, Joshua Rosenzweig. “With this ban, and a disastrous national security law looming, it is not clear if Hong Kong’s Tiananmen vigil will ever be allowed to take place again.”China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, passed the plan in a vote last Thursday – details of the legislation will be drafted and could be enacted by August. Beijing said it was necessary to plug the national security “loophole,” which includes “foreign interference” blamed for stirring unrest in Hong Kong.A video screen shows the results of the vote on a piece of national security legislation concerning Hong Kong during the closing session of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) in Beijing, China, May 28, 2020.Police have already banned a march and two rallies that were scheduled to take place last Sunday, citing the risk of COVID-19 infection. Critics say the coronavirus restrictions have become “a tool for the crackdown on the freedom of speech and assembly.”The actual number of deaths resulting from the suppression of the Tiananmen prodemocracy movement remains unknown as China has never provided a full accounting of the incident.The death toll given by officials days after the 1989 crackdown was about 300, most of them soldiers, with only 23 students confirmed killed. A secret diplomatic cable from then-British ambassador to Beijing, Alan Donald, dated June 5, 1989, and released in 2017, said the Chinese army killed at least 10,000 people. This death toll is much higher than previously cited estimates, which ranged from hundreds to about 3,000.
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China Threatens to Retaliate Against US Over Hong Kong
China has threatened to retaliate against the United States after President Donald Trump’s decision to begin the process of eliminating Hong Kong’s special status and impose restrictions on Chinese students in U.S. Trump’s action was prompted by a new Chinese national security law in Hong Kong. Speaking to reporters at the daily briefing on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said “the announced measures severely interfere with China’s internal affairs, damage U.S.-China relations, and will harm both sides. China is firmly opposed to this,” adding that “any words or actions by the U.S. that harm China’s interests will meet with China’s firm counterattack.” Protesters gesture with five fingers, signifying the “Five demands – not one less” in a shopping mall during a protest against China’s national security legislation for the city, in Hong Kong, May 29, 2020.Trump said on Friday the controversial security law is tragic for the people of Hong Kong and violated China’s promise to protect its autonomy. He said the Chinese government had been “diminishing the city’s longstanding and very proud status.”The president stopped short, however, of calling an immediate end to privileges that have helped Hong Kong remain a global financial hub. Chinese President Xi Jinping reaches to vote on a piece of national security legislation concerning Hong Kong during the closing session of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) in Beijing, May 28, 2020.China’s people’s assembly voted last week to impose new national security legislation on Hong Kong that forbids secessionist and subversive activities, and what it labels foreign interference and terrorism. About 200 political figures from around the world have said, the new law constitutes a “flagrant breach” of the Joint Declaration which retuned the former British colony to China in 1997 under the framework of “one country, two systems.”
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Philippines Allows Soft Post-Lockdown Reopening to Avert Dire Economic Fall
The Philippine government lifted some of its strictest coronavirus containment measures Monday in what observers called a bid to salvage an economy battered by unemployment and new signs of poverty. Most businesses were allowed to re-open and some public transportation came back to normal, per orders approved May 28 by President Rodrigo Duterte. A percentage of domestic flights started taking off again, too. Bars, dine-in restaurants and schools will remain closed while minors and the elderly are still asked to stay home. The shutdown orders that began in mid-March have put millions out of work, threatening some with poverty that had afflicted about one in five Filipinos before the disease outbreak especially if they needed medical attention. The economy is looking at a 2.2% contraction this year, market research firm IHS Markit forecasts. Nationwide unemployment topped 10% in March and April. Food struggled to reach consumers because farmers couldn’t move produce through locked-off parts of the country, the World Economic Forum said last month. Government food aid had missed urban slum dwellers in late March, prompting them to look for meals elsewhere, domestic news outlet Rappler reported. Monday’s reopening moves are seen as ways to ease the economic losses in spite of a coronavirus caseload that had climbed past 18,000 as of Monday with 957 deaths and little sign of a falling caseload curve. Reopening rules will let more shops, factories, offices and transport operators try to resume where they left off in March, said Maria Ela Atienza, political science professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman. “There are groups, for instance the bus drivers, many of them of course lost a lot of income,” Atienza said. “Some people cannot continue working, so people definitely are desperate.” In a Web-broadcast speech May 28, Duterte urged mall owners to give their commercial tenants rent breaks if the shops had made no money during the shutdown.Bus workers fetch families, workers and students who were stranded at the capital when the community lockdown was implemented to give them a free ride back to their province in Baclaran, Metro Manila, Philippines, May 29, 2020.The Philippines will struggle this year especially because of the length of its shutdown orders and the halt to a normally vibrant tourism sector, said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Markit. Poorer people face the loss of whatever little work income they might have had before the outbreak, he said. “We don’t know how many people are dying because of the lockdown and their economic suffering,” Biswas said. “This is really an issue in poor countries, perhaps not so much in richer countries where they have some savings and the government can help them more.” Where shutdowns persist, locals expect strict enforcement. Police and military personnel patrol some spots. In others, neighborhood heads stop residents from going too far past their houses. Beaches are closed in parts of the 109.6 million-population archipelago because they’re common gathering places. Schools are looking toward online-only lessons later in the year or just calling off classes completely, said Rhona Canoy, president of an international school in the southern Philippine city Cagayan de Oro. She can’t pay her teachers. “Private schools, we’re disturbed,” Canoy said. “I’m looking at options already but at the end of the day my most extreme option would be just to shut down the school and find some other business.” Officials in relatively disease-free smaller provinces worry now that the reopening will bring an influx of people from cities with high infection rates, Atienza said. Most virus cases have been reported in Metro Manila and other major cities. “It will be more difficult now with more people going out,” she said. Closures will ease up at varying paces from region to region, depending on local governments’ ability to manage COVID-19, the presidential office said in a statement. “Remember that the…entire nation is still under quarantine,” Duterte was quoted saying in the statement. “Let’s see what develops ahead.”
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Asian Markets Begin the Week on Major Upswing
The indexes in Hong Kong and Shanghai are leading Asia’s huge rally in equities trading Monday as investors ignore multiple crises around the world. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong is up 3.3% in late afternoon trading, while Shanghai is up 2.2%, despite China’s current diplomatic dispute with the United States over Hong Kong’s semi-autonomous status. Meanwhile, the Nikkei index in Tokyo is up 0.8%, Sydney’s S&P/ASX is 0.9% higher, Seoul’s KOSPI index is up 1.7%, and Taiwan’s TSEC index is 1.2% higher. Oil markets are trading essentially even, with U.S. crude selling at $35.47 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, is $35.33 per barrel. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are all trading in positive territory, indicating a good opening session on Wall Street despite the angry protests over last week’s death of George Floyd, an unarmed black man while in custody of police in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
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On US College Campuses, Student Groups Call for Closure of Beijing-Funded Confucius Institutes
Two of the largest U.S. college campus political organizations are calling for the closure of all Confucius Institutes in the United States, saying the Beijing-funded outposts are part of the Chinese Communist Party’s attempt to control discourse on China at American universities.The open letter states that China’s actions at U.S. colleges and universities “pose an existential threat to academic freedom as we know it.” The Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., speaks during an interview with the Associated Press on April 26, 2018, in his office on Capitol Hill in Washington.In 2018, Undergraduate student Moe Lewis, left, shows her watercolor painting of peony leaves at a traditional Chinese painting class at the Confucius Institute at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., on May 2, 2018.The open letter condemns xenophobia and states, “The Chinese Communist Party’s actions pose an immense threat to academic freedom and to human dignity. It is imperative that we distinguish this totalitarian regime from the Chinese people, whom we must steadfastly defend from abhorrent acts of xenophobia, racism, and hatred. We must act to give voice to the long-oppressed, be they Chinese, Hong Konger, Mongolian, Taiwanese, Tibetan or Uyghur. We must condemn in the most unequivocal terms any and all anti-Asian sentiment wherever and whenever it arises.”Several of the student leaders told VOA that many American students do not understand the impact of CIs and the CCP on their campuses. They said the CCP’s practices on Hong Kong, and Xinjiang and the COVID-19 outbreak, have also made the U.S. students less likely to have any involvement with the CCP.John Metz, national council chair of the College Democrats of America, said, “I do think this reflects a growing consensus within the youth wings of both parties, and I think the events of the last few days in Hong Kong in particular, have really been moving the needle.” On Thursday, China’s National People’s Congress approved imposing a national security law on Hong Kong, which many resident fear will mean a sweeping erosion of the city’s rule of law, rights and freedoms. The authors of the open letter, as well as student leaders from the Democratic and Republican parties said it was only a first step, and that they would continue to push grassroots campaigns on campus, urge schools to take concrete action to implement the open letter’s appeal, and mobilize more students to contact their respective members of Congress to push for policies at the legislative level.As of May 15, 2020, there were 81 CIs in the US, according to the National Association of Scholars, and 480 CIs operating worldwide, according to the CI at the University of California Los Angeles.Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report
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Protesters Worldwide Voice Support for US Demonstrators
The shocking on-camera death of African American George Floyd is drawing attention around the globe.Anti-U.S. protests deploring the man’s death erupted in Western capitals on Sunday and newspaper headlines heaped scorn on American police over the incident last week in Minneapolis.Floyd, a black man, died after white police officer Derek Chauvin pressed a knee on the back of his neck for more than eight minutes, even as Floyd repeatedly said he could not breathe. The incident was captured on video.Thousands of protesters gathered in central London to voice support for American demonstrators who have marched in dozens of U.S. cities over the last five days to condemn the police conduct. Some of the worst U.S. violence in decades has erupted, with police cars and government buildings set afire, stores ransacked and looted, and public monuments defaced.The British protesters chanted, “No justice! No peace!” and waved placards with the words, “How many more?”People protest in Berlin, Germany, May 31, 2020 after the violent death of the African-American George Floyd by a white policeman in the USA against racism and police violence, among other things with a sign “Who do call when police murders”.Denmark, Germany
Protesters in Denmark marched to the U.S. Embassy in Copenhagen, carrying placards with such messages as “Stop Killing Black People.” In Germany, protesters carried signs saying, “Hold Cops Accountable,” and “Who Do You Call When Police Murder?”Germany’s top-selling Bild newspaper carried a provocative Sunday headline: “This killer-cop set America ablaze” with an arrow pointing to a photo of Chauvin, who has been fired and charged with third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter in Floyd’s death.In some newspapers, Floyd’s death and the ensuing American protests have pushed news of the ongoing worldwide fight against the coronavirus pandemic to second-tier status, at least for the moment. Authoritarian regime perspective
In countries with authoritarian governments, state-controlled media showcased the demonstrations in the context of U.S. government complaints about crackdowns on protesters in other countries, such as China’s treatment of pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong.Hu Xijin, the editor of the Chinese Communist Party-run Global Times newspaper, said U.S. officials can now see the protests out of their own windows: “I want to ask [House] Speaker [Nancy] Pelosi and Secretary [of State Mike] Pompeo: Should Beijing support protests in the U.S., like you glorified rioters in Hong Kong?”Iranian state television has shown frequent images of the U.S. unrest, with one unsubstantiated report accusing U.S. police agencies in Washington of “setting fire to cars and attacking protesters.”Russia said Floyd’s death was an example of U.S. police violence against African-Americans and accused the U.S. of “systemic problems in the human rights sphere.””This incident is far from the first in a series of lawless conduct and unjustified violence from U.S. law enforcement,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “American police commit such high-profile crimes all too often.” Lebanon
Lebanese anti-government protesters flooded social media with tweets supporting U.S. protesters, with the hashtag #Americanrevolts becoming the top trending tag in Lebanon.
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Asia Today: India Reports over 8,000 New Virus Cases
India reported more than 8,000 new cases of the coronavirus in a single day, another record high that topped the deadliest week in the country.Confirmed infections have risen to 182,143, with 5,164 fatalities, including 193 in the last 24 hours, the Health Ministry said Sunday.Overall, more than 60% of the virus fatalities have been reported from only two states — Maharashtra, the financial hub, and Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The new cases are largely concentrated in six Indian states, including the capital New Delhi.Public health experts have criticized the Modi government’s handling of the outbreak. A joint statement by the Indian Public Health Association, Indian Association of Preventive and Social Medicine and Indian Association of Epidemiologists, which was sent to Modi’s office on May 25, said it was “unrealistic” to eliminate the virus at a time when “community transmission is already well-established.”India has denied of any community transmission even though new cases have continued to mount significantly.The health experts said that the infections were rising exponentially despite the “draconian lockdown,” which began March 25.The restrictions have slowly been relaxed, with the government announcing Saturday a phased “Unlock 1” plan from June onwards that allows more economic activities. The restrictions in so-called containment zones — areas that have been isolated due to the outbreaks — will remain through June 30.Modi, who addressed the nation through his monthly radio program on Sunday, said India was faring better than other countries.India has a fatality rate of 2.8%.There are concerns that the virus may be spreading through India’s villages as millions of jobless migrant workers return home from cities during the lockdown. Experts warn that the pandemic is yet to peak in India.In other developments in the Asia-Pacific region: German engineer tests positive in China: A German engineer who flew to China on a special charter flight Saturday has tested positive for the coronavirus. The Tianjin city government said in a social media post that the 34-year-old man from Blaustein, Germany, had a body temperature of 36.3 Celsius (97.3 Fahrenheit) and no COVID-19 symptoms. It did not give his name. He has been transferred to a hospital where he will be kept for medical observation. About 200 people arrived on the chartered Lufthansa A340 from Frankfurt. A second flight is scheduled to depart on Wednesday for Shanghai. China has banned most foreigners from entering the country to try to prevent the introduction of new infections, but agreed to allow the two German flights to bring back business people as it tries to revive economic growth after the coronavirus shutdowns.27 new cases in South Korea: South Korea on Sunday reported 27 new cases of the coronavirus, including 21 from the densely populated Seoul metropolitan area, where officials are scrambling to stem transmissions linked to clubgoers and warehouse workers. The figures announced by South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on brought national totals to 11,468 cases and 270 deaths. Twelve of the new cases were international arrivals. South Korea was reporting about 500 new cases each day in early March but seemed to stabilize the outbreak with aggressive tracking and tracing, which allowed authorities to ease social distancing guidelines. A rise in infections in the greater capital area has caused alarm as millions of children have begun returning to school. KCDC said more than 100 infections were linked to workers or visitors at a warehouse of local e-commerce giant Coupang, which has seen orders spike during the epidemic.China reports two new cases: China reported two new cases of COVID-19, bringing its total to 83,001. Both cases were imported ones in Shandong province south of Beijing, bringing the number of cases from abroad to 1,740. China has cut international flights drastically to try to keep new cases out, though it allowed a chartered Lufthansa A340 with employees of Volkswagen and other German companies operating in China to arrive Saturday from Frankfurt. It was the first of two such flights from Germany aimed at restarting the economy. No new domestic cases have been reported for a week, since an outbreak that infected 42 people was tamped down in Jilin province in the northeast. The country’s official death toll stands at 4,634.Restrictions easing in Australia: COVID-19 restrictions are easing in most of Australia, but authorities say they’ll be watching carefully to ensure the country’s success in containing the pandemic remains on track. Deputy Chief Medical Officer Nick Coatsworth said the lifting of restrictions is a balancing act between socioeconomic benefits and the public health risk. “We’re taking a deliberately safe and cautious approach,” Coatsworth said. “Most importantly we’re taking the time to gather the data over the coming weeks to determine whether it’s safe to move to the next round of lifting restrictions.” Coronavirus cases remain low in Australia by international standards, with 7,180 infections and 103 deaths. The more flexible restrictions, which differ across the states, will mean more movement in public places, including pubs, cafes, and restaurants. But authorities have renewed their call for safe hygiene and social distancing measures to remain.
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Hearings Begin into Australia Bushfire Disaster
A Royal Commission has begun its investigation into Australia’s devastating summer bushfires. Hearings this week in Canberra have focused on climate change, as well as the impact of the fires on health and wildlife.Parts of Australia are some of the most fire-prone regions in the world. The task of the Royal Commission, the nation’s highest form of inquiry, is to help the driest inhabited continent become more resilient to bushfires and other natural disasters. Experts have told the inquiry that toxic smoke from the Black Summer blazes killed almost 450 people and affected 80 per cent of Australia’s population. The disaster destroyed more than 3,000 homes, burnt more than 12 million hectares of land, and led directly to the deaths of 33 people. The role of climate change and land management, including the use of controlled burns in the cooler months to reduce the fire threat, is under scrutiny. Also under examination are the government’s responsibilities during disasters to maintain essential services and infrastructure, and the impact on wildlife. Some estimates have suggested around one billion animals were killed in Australia’s bushfires. Scientists fear that many threatened or endangered species might have been pushed inexorably towards extinction.Dr. Sally Box, the government’s Threatened Species Commissioner, has told the Royal Commission that vulnerable flora and fauna might never recover.“There are currently approximately 1,800 species listed as threatened under the EPBC (Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation) Act, and more than 300 of these nationally-listed threatened species were in the path of the fire,” said Box. “49 threatened species had more than 80% of their known or likely range within the fire extent, and a further 65 threatened species had more than 50% of their known or likely range within the fire extent. And this includes plants and mammals and birds and frogs and reptiles and fish and invertebrates.” Some experts believe the summer of devastation has signaled the start of a new age of fire in Australia that is driven by man-made changes to the landscape, the use of fossil fuels and global warming. Hearings at the Royal Commission will continue next week. A final report is due by the end of August when southern Australia will be nervously awaiting the start of the next bushfire season.The previous season was unprecedented. March 2 was the first time in 240 days that not a single wildfire was burning in Australia.The blazes have various forms of ignition, including lightning and arson as well as sparks from road accidents and faulty power lines. Many of the witnesses appearing before the commission are giving their evidence remotely via the internet because of COVID-19 physical distancing regulations.
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Arcane Art of Kremlinology Remains Relevant for North Korea
A veteran practitioner of the arcane art of “Kremlinology” says the skills honed to decipher what was really happening in the ruling circles of a secretive Soviet Union remain useful today in trying to determine what is up with North Korea’s leadership.”North Korea is the last bastion of the old Soviet-style communism,” says Alexander “Sandy” Vershbow, U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2001 to 2005. “There is some intelligence collected about internal developments of North Korea, but it’s still opaque. So the old techniques applied to the Soviet Union are still relevant to today’s North Korea.”Vershbow, who also served as the Soviet Union affairs director at the State Department during the last days of the Cold War, had his first foreign posting to Moscow in 1979, as a second secretary at the U.S. Embassy.FILE – NATO Deputy Secretary General, Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, speaks at the Parliamentary Assembly’s spring session in Tirana, Albania, May 30, 2016.Soviet officials were not accessible in those days, he said in an interview. Even those who were willing to meet with foreign diplomats “weren’t all that open.”So, like many diplomats at the time, Vershbow became adept at piecing together any tidbits of information that could be gleaned from public appearances and official statements to understand the Soviet leadership’s inner workings. Even the positioning of senior officials in a group photograph could yield clues about changes in status.With his fluent Russian skills, Vershbow studied Pravda, the official newspaper of the Communist Party. “Reading between the lines, learning to understand the different pseudonyms that were used for editorials to reflect different levels of leadership was, as we would say, our diplomatic bread and butter in that period,” Vershbow told VOA.During his diplomatic career, Vershbow was centrally involved in Russian and European affairs, but he also served as ambassador to South Korea immediately after leaving Russia. “So watching North Korea from the South was a logical next step for me,” he said.Kim Jong Un health rumorsThe limitations of Kremlinology as applied to North Korea became apparent last month when a number of analysts jumped to unfounded conclusions about a mysterious three-week absence from public view by the nation’s leader, Kim Jong Un.With a lack of any explanation from Pyongyang, the absence stoked intense speculation about Kim’s health. It was not the first time he has disappeared from the public eye, but analysts found it highly unusual that he would have missed an April 15 celebration marking the birth of his grandfather — regime founder Kim Il Sung.A series of unsubstantiated news reports and rumors suggested that Kim had undergone a failed heart surgery, become brain dead or was in a vegetative state. Other reports said he had caught COVID-19 and was in lockdown, or even dead. But he reappeared on May 1 at a fertilizer factory.FILE – North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the completed Suchon fertilizer factory, in this picture taken May 1, 2020, and released from North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on May 2, 2020.”There was no real indication, other than Kim did something out of the ordinary, which is he didn’t go to the April 15th meetings and that led everybody to jump to conclusions,” said Ken Gause, adversary analytics director at CNA, a nonprofit analysis organization in Arlington, Virginia.”If you have done leadership analysis and Kremlinology for a long time, you will learn that there are always exceptions that pop up. And if you connect the dots in a straight way like we did this time, you can often be wrong.”Gause has closely followed North Korean leadership since the late 1980s with the analysis framework he developed to study the Soviet system. In the early 1980s, he was based in Moscow, interviewing defectors from the Soviet Union and analyzing Kremlin politics and decision making.”When you have a totalitarian regime, where the media has a certain coded language to it, which we saw under [Joseph] Stalin, which we see in North Korea, you can actually trust those photographs of who’s standing next to whom. You can pick up some clues,” Gause explained.Communist connectionAndrei Lankov, a respected historian of North Korea, was born and raised in the Soviet Union. He completed his undergraduate and graduate studies at Leningrad State University in the 1980s and also studied at North Korea’s Kim Il Sung University.”I was lucky to belong to a generation of Soviet specialists who had opportunities to study in North Korea. When I went there, I realized that this was an area where I probably would have a serious competitive advantage. It was quite clear my Soviet background and general interest in Soviet history would be extremely useful,” Lankov told VOA.FILE – Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert, answers a reporter’s question during an interview in Seoul, South Korea, Sept. 20, 2017.Compared to Kremlinology, a significant challenge for “Pyongyangology” comes from the lack of reliable data on key government officials, according to Lankov.”The Soviet Union was a far less closed society than North Korea, and stories about promotions and demotions, as well as secrets in the top tiers of the leadership, were normally filtered out, eventually reaching the ears of foreign observers,” he said.In North Korea, by comparison, “there are no ‘Pyongyang Kitchens’ where intellectuals, foreign journalists and spies disguised as journalists are drinking Soju [Korean hard liquor].”Lankov said the North Korean government has increasingly closed down communication channels with the outside world in recent years, and many experts have lost their sources inside North Korea. That lack of accurate information helped feed the recent rumors over Kim Jong Un’s health, he said.But Lankov still believes “something was wrong” in Pyongyang during Kim’s mid-April disappearance. “Something did happen to Kim Jong Un between the 11th and 15th of April.” How then, can one develop this hunch into a meaningful analysis?The sixth senseSoo Kim, a policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, previously worked as a CIA intelligence officer analyzing North Korean propaganda and leadership styles. Like Lankov, Kim believes it is premature to say the analysts were “wrong” about Kim Jong Un’s health.”I think there are certain fragments of information that have yet to emerge in public, and these may never be revealed or confirmed,” Kim said.When studying North Korea, Kim says, you cannot completely rely on patterns or past behavior.”Dealing with North Korea is not a science. There are nuances, contours, rivets that you sometimes develop an instinct for. Sometimes your instincts are right, sometimes you’re proven wrong. This unpredictability creates a constant state of tension internally.”Michael Madden, a Stimson Center fellow, has spent more than a decade running NK Leadership Watch, a website compiling intelligence on North Korea’s leaders from all available sources. Madden stresses the importance of developing insights to put the available fragments of information into the right context.”One of the problems we have in the North Korean leadership business is hanging too tightly onto precedents in history. You have to read, there’s a lot of books that have been published over the years and academic studies on leadership,” Madden said.”And there are people all over the world following North Korea, such as diplomats, NGO workers who are visiting the country or interact with the country’s officials. So it’s a matter of also developing a network of people to talk to.”And it takes a long time to develop the right instincts, says Gause.”You have to become very familiar, not only with the leadership politics in the country but the cultural aspects, the politics, the rules which the actors operate by. It can take a decade or two to really develop that, to a point where you have almost a sixth sense about how the system works.”
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Six Papuan Activists Convicted of Treason Freed
Six activists charged with treason in Jakarta for organizing a protest rally last August outside the presidential palace have been freed from prison. Paulus Suryanta Ginting, Ambrosius Mulait, Charles Kosay, and Dano Anes Tabuni, along with the only woman in the group, Arina Elopere, were freed this past week.Issay Wenda, the sixth person, was released April 28. He had been sentenced to eight months in prison, a month less than the others. At the August 28 rally, a banned separatist flag was raised as activists protested an incident that occurred against Papuans earlier that month in Surabaya in East Java. The Morning Star flag is a symbol of independence for West Papua. Over 40 students takenIn mid-August, Indonesian authorities stormed a university dormitory in Surabaya, where Papuan students live, concerning allegations someone desecrated the Indonesian flag in the building and threw it into a sewer. Police fired tear gas and took 43 students into custody, while an angry mob that had gathered outside the dormitory chanted, “Kick out Papua” and used racial slurs to describe the students.The incident triggered nationwide protests and galvanized the pro-independence movement. The Ministry of Communication and Information responded by blocking the internet in Papua. After that happened, some Papuans burned the office of Telkom Indonesia in Jayapura, the capital of Papua. Ginting, the spokesperson for the Indonesian People’s Front for West Papua (FRI-WP), said their indictment was unfair. “None of us has the initiative; it never crossed our minds that we want to commit treason. We were only protesting; it was a standard rally to make a statement. The only difference there was that flag on August 28. I assumed it was the initiative from the people at the rally,” he told VOA. ‘No intentions of treason’Michael Hilman, a member of the legal team representing the activists, said that the facts and evidence presented in court proved they were only protesting because of the incident in Surabaya. “There were no intentions of treason, or to attack the head of state, there was no violence whatsoever. But the judge’s decision did not take into account the facts,” he said in a statement. Five of the six were supposed to be released three weeks earlier under a new decree by the Indonesian Ministry of Justice and Human Rights. The decree initiated an assimilation program for prisoners who have served two-thirds of their prison sentences to be released early because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ginting said they signed the release documents on May 11 and had been tested for the coronavirus, which causes the COVID-19 disease. At the last minute, they were told they could not be granted an early release because they were charged of treason. “We suspect political pressure or alleged abuse of power by the authorities,” Hilman said. The Directorate General of Corrections at the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights has not responded to VOA’s requests for comments. Repression in Papua ‘getting worse’ Indonesia annexed the region of West Papua in 1969, after some of the population was forced to vote in favor of joining Indonesia. Since then, the area has become a hot spot of conflict with the government’s crackdown of separatist movements. Veronica Koman, a human rights lawyer, said violations and impunity still occur in Papua. “The repression in Papua is getting worse, because there’s a record of arrest in 2016. There were 5,136 arrests; that’s already during Jokowi’s regime,” she said, referring to President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. Failed promises?The president made a promise to prioritize infrastructure development in Papua. But the president has never addressed the alleged human rights violations. Koman said if the conflict in Papua is not resolved, it will be a ticking time bomb ahead of a violent uprising. “In a couple of years, there could be a (violent) incident. And then they’d ask, ‘Why did it happen?’ or ‘Who was the provocateur.’ Well, you’re making them (the Papuans) victims repeatedly and robbing them of their dignity,” she said. Meanwhile, Ginting said he would continue to speak out about the problems in Papua, but he acknowledged there is little he can do during the pandemic. He said the arrests have created momentum for people to start a discussion on Papua. “I think there are more people who are now curious. They want to find out what exactly is happening in Papua. A lot more people will be more open-minded,” he said.
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