TOKYO — Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba was set on Friday to become Japan’s next prime minister after winning a closely fought contest in his fifth and final attempt to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

The 67-year-old prevailed over hardline nationalist Sanae Takaichi in a run-off vote in what was one of the most unpredictable leadership elections in decades with a record nine candidates in the field.

The leader of the LDP, which has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war era, is essentially assured of becoming the next premier because of its majority in parliament.

The scramble to replace current premier Fumio Kishida was sparked in August when he announced his intention to step down over a series of scandals that plunged the LDP’s ratings to record lows.

“We must believe in the people, speak the truth with courage and sincerity, and work together to make Japan a safe and secure country where everyone can live with a smile once again,” an emotional Ishiba said in a brief speech to lawmakers after the result.

Ishiba must quell anger at home over rising living costs and navigate a volatile security environment in East Asia fueled by an increasingly assertive China and nuclear-armed North Korea.

His approach to diplomacy with Japan’s closest ally, the United States, will be in focus given he has repeatedly called for a more balanced relationship.

In his campaign, he also called for the creation of an Asian NATO, an idea that could draw ire from Beijing and has already been dismissed by a senior U.S. official as hasty.

U.S. ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, congratulated Ishiba in a post on X saying he looked forward to working with him to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance.

Ishiba entered parliament in 1986 after a short banking career, but his outspoken views have earned him enemies in the LDP.

He was sidelined by outgoing prime minister Kishida, instead becoming a dissenting voice in the party who enjoyed broad support from the public and rank-and-file members.

He has rebelled on policies including the increased use of nuclear energy and has criticized his party for not allowing married couples to use separate surnames.

His contrarian views and spats with colleagues contributed to four previous failed leadership bids. He has said this was his “final battle.”
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Washington — U.S. President Joe Biden says Washington is committed to a strong, prosperous, resilient, and independent Vietnam and discussed a broad range of ways the two countries can cooperate during a meeting with this Vietnamese counterpart, To Lam.

Since coming to office in May, Vietnam’s new president has been actively reaching out, meeting with the leaders of China and Russia. Washington is seeking to counter those advances and strengthen ties with Hanoi as well.

Lam, who is also head of the ruling Communist Party, met with Biden on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York Wednesday. According to a White House statement, the two talked about “building secure and resilient semiconductor supply chains” and strengthening their tech relationship as well as progress in cybersecurity cooperation and Vietnam’s efforts to increase its digital connectivity.

Vietnam is looking to the United States and China to triple its number of subsea cables by 2030. Biden and Lam also focused on ways the two could deepen a comprehensive strategic partnership they entered last year.

Biden said Washington wants to cooperate with Vietnam to uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific and discussed the importance of maintaining peace and stability — especially in the South China Sea, according to the White House statement.

During the meeting, which lasted a little more than an hour, Lam assured Biden that the United States is “a partner of strategic importance,” while Biden told Lam that Vietnam is “a top partner of the U.S. in the region,” Vietnam News Agency reported.

Analysts say that while the meeting did not take place in the White House, it did highlight the high level of trust between Hanoi and Washington and the growing importance of bilateral ties.

Nguyen Hong Hai, a lecturer of international relations at Hanoi-based VinUni, told VOA in an email that the way Washington and Hanoi are talking about one another and the high importance they attach to bilateral relations is significant. It is also a sign of deepening trust, Hai added.

“Vietnam falls short of a U.S. ally. But as a partner, it is a top of its kind,” Hai said.

Hai said that Hanoi fits perfectly into Washington’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy since it supports the rules-based order and is playing an increasingly bigger role in the U.S.-led global supply chain. On the other hand, Hanoi needs Washington as a regional security guarantor while its goal of becoming a developed economy with high income by 2045 is contingent on access to the U.S. market as well as its capital and technology.

Ha Hoang Hop, chair of the Hanoi-based Think Tank Viet Know, said it was significant that both leaders reaffirmed the importance of their comprehensive strategic partnership. So, too, was Biden’s commitment to support Vietnam’s tech-driven growth and encouragement for Hanoi to play an active role in regional security.

“The momentum of U.S.-Vietnam comprehensive strategic partnership will be maintained far beyond Biden’s and To Lam’s presidencies no matter who will succeed Biden next year or who will take the helm of the Vietnamese Communist Party in 2026,” Hop told VOA in an email.

The two countries recently marked the first anniversary of the comprehensive strategic partnership Biden signed with Nguyen Phu Trong, Lam’s predecessor, during a visit to Hanoi last year.

At that time, Lam was the country’s security czar. He became president following the forced resignation of President Vo Van Thuong in March and replaced Nguyen Phu Trong as party chief after Trong unexpectedly died in late July.

Lam’s first foreign trip after becoming Vietnam’s top leader took him to Beijing in August, when he and Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed their commitment to bilateral ties. He also hosted Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Hanoi in late June.

Although readouts of Wednesday’s meeting gave no indication that China was discussed, Beijing was watching the meeting closely, Hai said.

China became Vietnam’s first comprehensive strategic partner in 2008, and the two countries agreed late last year to build what they call a “community of shared future” following the upgrade in U.S.-Vietnam ties.

“Any progress in U.S.-Vietnam ties is unwelcome in Beijing. However, Bejing should understand that Hanoi’s deepening ties with the U.S. is not targeted at any country but just serves its own security,” Hai said.

Think Tank Viet Know’s Ha Hoang Hop said that Beijing is “fully aware of Hanoi’s strategic position in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy” and is trying to capitalize on this to serve its interests.

“For its part, Hanoi is proactively navigating between the two superpowers,” he said.
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TAIPEI, Taiwan — China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday in a rare occurrence, adding to tensions in the region where multiple countries have overlapping territorial claims and both Beijing and Washington seek to project their influence.

The launch was part of routine training by the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force, which is in charge of conventional and nuclear missile operations, and was not aimed at any country or target, the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

The ICBM, carrying a dummy warhead, landed in a designated area in the sea, the ministry said, without specifying where exactly.

China rarely tests ICBMs out in international waters, with some experts tracing the last such deployment back to May 1980, when Beijing launched a DF-5 missile into the South Pacific. Usually, the PLA test-fires ballistic missiles in China’s remote Xinjiang region or in the Bohai Sea.

Why the Pacific, why now?

China choosing the Pacific Ocean as the location for test-firing its missile comes across as both a display of its increased nuclear capabilities and as a warning to the United States and its allies in the region, experts say.

“There is no other potential audience, as China does not expect to have to confront the EU or the U.K. militarily,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London.

The test also comes weeks ahead of an expected call between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. It marks an increase in regional security tensions with U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines, and a continuation of frictions with the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday it was monitoring the missile launch, along with other military exercises by China in the region.

The launch, coinciding with the U.N. General Assembly meeting in New York, “is a pretty blunt signal” to the international order, said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and a former U.S. defense official.

“China is signaling that its forbearance has limits, that it is prepared to use its most powerful weapons to deter adversaries or punish them if needed, if deterrence fails,” he said.

Wednesday’s launch also follows a series of corruption arrests this year that ensnared several leading officers in its rocket corps on allegations of misconduct. Its aim could be to both provide assurances at home and signal to the world that the issues have been resolved.

How strong is China’s military?

China boasts the world’s largest standing army and the biggest navy. Its military budget is the second highest in the world, after that of the U.S.

According to the U.S., China also has the largest air force in the Indo-Pacific, with more than half of its fighter planes consisting of fourth or fifth generation models. China also boasts a massive stockpile of missiles, along with stealth aircraft, bombers capable of delivering nuclear weapons, advanced surface ships and nuclear-powered submarines.

In his more than a decade in power, Xi, who is also chairman of the Central Military Commission, has spearheaded the armed forces’ modernization, with investments in high-tech military technologies from stealth fighters to aircraft carriers and a growing arsenal of nuclear weapons.

China’s defense budget has more than doubled since 2015, even as the country’s economic growth rate has slowed considerably. A U.S. Department of Defense report last year said China has continued to strengthen the PLA’s ability to “fight and win wars against a strong enemy.”

How do China’s missiles compare to those of others?

The U.S. report also estimated China had more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023 and was on track to accumulate more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.

China has not revealed the size of its nuclear arsenal.

In comparison, Russia is believed to have a total inventory of more than 5,580 warheads — including 4,380 stockpiled warheads for operational forces, as well as an additional 1,200 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement — according to a report this year by the Federation of American Scientists.

The same report put the U.S. nuclear warheads at 5,044.

How common are missile tests in the region?

Few countries have ICBMs in their arsenal, and testing is usually restricted to their own territory. North Korea has carried out multiple ICBM tests since 2017, including firing a developmental solid-fueled missile in December that came down in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

The U.S. earlier this year fired two unarmed ICBMs equipped with reentry vehicles from California and brought them down on an American test site in the Marshall Islands.
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TOKYO — A Japanese court ruled Thursday that an 88-year-old former boxer was not guilty in a retrial for a 1966 quadruple murder, reversing an earlier wrongful conviction after decades on death row.

Iwao Hakamada’s acquittal by the Shizuoka District Court makes him the fifth death-row convict to be found not guilty in a retrial in postwar Japanese criminal justice. The case could rekindle a debate around abolishing the death penalty in Japan.

The court’s presiding judge, Koshi Kunii, said the court acknowledged multiple fabrications of evidence and that Hakamada was not the culprit, NHK said.

Hakamada was convicted of murder in the 1966 killing of a company manager and three of his family members and setting a fire to their central Japan home. He was sentenced to death in 1968 but was not executed due to lengthy appeals and the retrial process.

He spent 48 years behind bars — most of them on death row — making him the world’s longest-serving death row inmate.

It took 27 years for the top court to deny his first appeal for retrial. His second appeal for a retrial was filed in 2008 by his sister Hideko Hakamada, now 91, and the court finally ruled in his favor in 2023, paving the way for the latest retrial that began in October.

Hakamada was released from prison in 2014 when a court ordered a retrial based on new evidence suggesting his conviction may have been based on fabricated accusations by investigators but was not cleared of the conviction. After his release, Hakamada served his sentence at home because his frail health and age made him a low risk for escape.

At a final hearing at the Shizuoka court in May before Thursday’s decision, prosecutors again demanded the death penalty, triggering criticism from rights groups that prosecutors were trying to prolong the trial.

The extremely high hurdles for retrials have also prompted legal experts to call for a revision to the system.

During the investigation that followed his arrest, Hakamada initially denied the accusations, then confessed. He later said he was forced to confess under violent interrogation by police.

A major point of contention was five pieces of blood-stained clothing that investigators claimed Hakamada wore during the crime and hid in a tank of fermented soybean paste, or miso. The clothes were found more than a year after his arrest.

A Tokyo High Court ruling in 2023 acknowledged scientific experiments that clothing soaked in miso for more than a year turns too dark for bloodstains to be spotted, noting a possible fabrication by investigators.

Defense lawyers and earlier retrial decisions said the blood samples did not match Hakamada’s DNA, and trousers that prosecutors submitted as evidence were too small for Hakamada and did not fit when he tried them on.

Japan and the United States are the only two countries in the Group of Seven advanced nations that retain capital punishment. A survey by the Japanese government showed an overwhelming majority of the public support executions.

Executions are carried out in secrecy in Japan and prisoners are not informed of their fate until the morning they are hanged. In 2007, Japan began disclosing the names of those executed and some details of their crimes, but disclosures are still limited.

Supporters say Hakamada’s nearly half-century detention has taken a toll on his mental health. Most of his time behind bars was spent in solitary confinement, in fear of execution. He spent a total of 48 years in prison, more than 45 of them on death row.

His sister Hideko Hakamada has devoted around half of her life to win his innocence. Before Thursday’s ruling, she said she was in a never-ending battle.

“It is so difficult to get a retrial started,” she told reporters in Tokyo. “Not just Iwao, but I’m sure there are other people who have been wrongly accused and crying. … I want the criminal law revised so that retrials are more easily available.” 
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washington — This week marks 10 years since Ilham Tohti, a 54-year-old Uyghur economist and human rights advocate, was sentenced to life in prison by Chinese authorities.   

For some, like Enver Can, a 75-year-old German-based Uyghur rights activist who leads an organization advocating for Tohti’s release, the fight for his release continues to this day.  

“South Africa had Nelson Mandela, India had Mahatma Gandhi, and we Uyghurs have Ilham Tohti,” Can tells VOA.  

Tohti, a former professor at Minzu University in Beijing, was sentenced to life imprisonment in September 2014 on charges of separatism. He is widely recognized for promoting dialogue between Uyghurs and Han Chinese. In 2019, he was awarded the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought by the European Parliament.  

Like Tohti, Can was born in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region where the Uyghur remains imprisoned. At the age of 12, Can fled Xinjiang with his family. In the 1970s, he moved to Germany and worked as a journalist for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty until the early 1990s.  

In 2016, two years after Tohti’s life sentence, Can founded the “Ilham Tohti Initiative” to campaign for his release. Earlier this month, Can was particularly busy meeting European parliamentarians and other groups to push for Tohti’s release from Chinese detention.  

“To my knowledge, Ilham Tohti is one of the very few Uyghurs who dared to speak up for Uyghur rights while living under the Chinese regime. He articulated his demands eloquently and clearly, framing them within both international norms and Chinese law,” Can told VOA in a phone interview.  

EU pressure continues  

In a statement released on Monday, the European Union reiterated its call for the “immediate and unconditional release” of Ilham Tohti and other human rights defenders, lawyers, and intellectuals “arbitrarily detained” in China.  

“The imprisonment of Ilham Tohti is representative of the deeply worrying human rights situation in Xinjiang,” the EU said, citing reports from U.N. bodies and the 2022 assessment by the U.N. Human Rights Office.  

Since Tohti’s arrest in 2014, concerns about human rights abuses in Xinjiang have worsened with significant attention drawn to the issue around the beginning of 2017, when reports of mass detentions of Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in the region started to emerge.   

Advocacy organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have been vocal about the situation in Xinjiang, with notable reports and statements escalating around 2018.  

In particular, the U.N. Human Rights Office has issued assessments and reports highlighting the situation, including a U.N. rights report released in August 2022 that detailed human rights violations in Xinjiang. China’s response has consistently been to deny these allegations, labeling them as part of a Western agenda to undermine its sovereignty and stability in the region.  

Can told VOA that the time for mere statements is over.

“Just calling for Ilham Tohti’s release is not enough,” he said. “There have been countless petitions and open letters over the past decade. We need concrete actions.”  

Can urged tougher measures against China, including sanctions on officials, visa restrictions, and re-negotiating trade terms. 

China’s defense  

In an email to VOA, Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, defended the sentencing of Ilham Tohti, asserting that he is guilty of “splitting the country” and that the evidence against him is “conclusive.”  

“As a teacher, Ilham Tohti once publicly called terrorist extremists ‘heroes’, incited, lured and coerced some people to go abroad to participate in the activities of the ‘East Turkestan’ separatist forces, and planned, organized and carried out a series of criminal activities to split the country,” Liu said.  

He insisted that China’s judicial system acted strictly in accordance with Chinese law and that “China’s internal affairs and judicial sovereignty must not be interfered with.”  

Jewher Ilham, the daughter of Ilham Tohti and a human rights activist in the U.S., disputed the Chinese government’s portrayal of her father’s case, asserting that his imprisonment resulted from his peaceful advocacy for marginalized Uyghurs rather than any legal violations.  

“A normal and healthy society allows for more than one voice or opinion,” Ilham told VOA. “The Chinese government did not tolerate different opinions 10 years ago, and it is clear they still do not.”  

Family’s heartbreak  

   

Jewher Ilham last saw her father on February 2, 2013, in a Beijing airport interrogation room, where they shared their final goodbye. During that encounter, Ilham urged her to leave China for the U.S., despite the presence of Chinese authorities.

“Look at them, look at how they treat you and me. Do you still want to stay in this country? I would rather you sweep the streets in America than be treated like this here,” Ilham recalled her father’s words.  

At the time, Ilham Tohti was prevented from departing for a year-long visiting scholar position at Indiana University, and those parting words continue to resonate with his daughter to this day.  

After 11 months of house arrest, Chinese authorities arrested Tohti on January 15, 2014, while Jewher was in the United States.  

“On January 15, 2014, over 20 police officers came to arrest my father. My youngest brother was three-and-a-half years old, and the oldest was seven. They were napping when the police broke in and aggressively took him away,” Ilham told VOA in a phone interview. She kept in touch with her family and friends until early 2017, and that’s how she learned what had happened.  

“My stepmother wasn’t home because she was working away. My grandmother found out about my father’s arrest later, and she became very sick. I recently heard that my grandmother passed away two years ago,” she said.  

Eight months later, on September 23, 2014, Chinese authorities sentenced Tohti to life imprisonment on alleged charges of “splitting the country.”  

“September 23 is a devastating date for my family. My father Ilham Tohti was sentenced to life on this date 10 years ago,” Jewher told VOA. “Just like my father never stopped advocating for the voiceless, I will not stop, no matter what.” 
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Taipei, Taiwan — China’s central bank has released a series of economic stimulus plans, including cuts to mortgage interest rates and the required cash reserve ratio — the latter of which will allow commercial banks to inject $140 billion into the market — among other monetary policies aimed at reviving the housing market and stimulating economic growth.   

Many Chinese internet users applauded this initiative, but few expressed immediate willingness to buy a house. Analysts said the policies are “too late and too few,” since housing prices in China have fallen by half in some areas, leaving people wary of purchasing homes that could further decline in value.

The heads of China’s three major financial institutions — including Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People’s Bank of China; Li Yunze, the director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration; and Wu Qing, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission — on Tuesday unveiled the country’s most powerful economic rescue effort since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pan said that soon, commercial banks will be advised to reduce the interest rate of existing mortgages by about 0.5 percentage points on average, and the minimum down payment ratio for second homes will be reduced from the current 25% to the same 15% as the first home. He said this policy is expected to benefit 50 million households and 150 million people by reducing the nation’s total interest bill by about 150 billion yuan, or $21.3 billion, annually.

Pan said that depending on market conditions, the central bank may consider cutting the required cash reserve on commercial banks by another 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points before the year’s end.

Most Chinese internet users lauded the mortgage rate cuts.  But no one answered affirmatively when a user under the name “Mushroom’s Second Sister” in Zhejiang asked on Weibo, “Will everyone be more willing to buy a house?” 

A Weibo user from Guangdong under the name “Chun Sheng Qi” said flatly, “No.”

Another Weibo user in Zhejiang under the name “Little Lazy Pig Little Lin Lin” said, “Is there a possibility they cut the interest rate to entice you to buy homes, and then they will increase the interest rate after a few years? They have the final say on the interest rate increase and reduction anyway.”  

A real estate analyst in Taipei told VOA on the condition of anonymity due to the issue’s sensitivity that the new policy may not help restore confidence for Chinese home-buyers, who will be less inclined to spend lifetime savings on properties amid China’s sluggish economy, which has been hard-hit in recent years by the pandemic, the U.S.-China trade war and the global economic recession.

She said that while governments around the world have been easing monetary policies to stimulate post-pandemic economic recovery in the past two years, the Chinese government has not taken action, allowing the economy to deteriorate. It is “too late” to introduce the stimulus package, she said.  

She added that China’s policymakers are still holding onto an old development model and counting on the property market to drive the economy. But China’s housing market is taking a hit from the country’s declining birthrate.  Young people who will inherit a house from elders will not invest in the housing market. Those whose families own no properties may not be able to afford one because of their financial obligations to support elders or children.  

Francis Lun, CEO of Geo Securities in Hong Kong, said the policies are “too late and too few” but are better than nothing.

He said that the People’s Bank of China should have launched them a year ago, and the scale of 1 trillion yuan is not enough because developer Evergrande alone has $300 billion in debt.  Other Chinese real estate companies also sit on billions in debt, so Lun expects China’s central bank to ease the monetary policy again in coming months.

Lun told VOA by phone that to advance structural reform, China should also “replace land sales with property tax revenue as local governments’ source of incomes… Or property prices won’t be stabilized, which will only worsen the local economy.”

Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
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Washington — China, which has long influenced Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, is pressuring the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA — part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA) — to avoid aligning with other opposition forces that China perceives as Western-backed, experts say.

The MNDAA, also known as the Kokang ethnic armed group, whose members are Mandarin-speaking Han Chinese native to Kokang, reposted a statement on social media confirming their alliance with China.

“Our political red line is not to form alliances or work together with those who are against China,” read the statement, which was briefly posted Sept. 4 and reposted on Sept. 19.

Analysts say that Beijing’s pressure on ethnic armed groups, especially the MNDAA, reflects its strategic interests in maintaining control over Myanmar’s political landscape. Strategically located along Myanmar’s northeastern border with China, the MNDAA is being pushed to sever ties with opposition forces that Beijing views as having U.S. support.

China used its economic and political leverage when it reportedly cut off trade and supplies to Laukkai, the capital of the Kokang region, to create distance between the MNDAA and the National Unity Government (NUG) — the pro-democracy shadow government leading the fight against the ruling junta.

“The MNDAA’s statement is a follow-up to China’s warning that the ‘three bottom lines’ must not be crossed,” said Than Soe Naing, a veteran political analyst based in Myanmar.

The “three bottom lines,” articulated by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in August, call for Myanmar to avoid civil strife, remain part of ASEAN, and prevent external interference. 

According to a political analyst based in Yangon who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation, there is a perception in China that the National Unity Government and certain resistance forces, as well as some ethnic armed organizations, are close to the United States and are receiving U.S. support.

“This policy reflects China’s emphasis on preventing external forces from interfering in Burma’s affairs, which Beijing views as critical to its regional strategy,” said political analyst Than Soe Naing, using an alternative name for Myanmar.

So far, Beijing has not commented on the MNDAA’s statement, despite the group’s request for China’s help to resolve the conflict and its willingness to cease fighting and cooperate with Beijing to negotiate a solution to Myanmar’s crisis. Myanmar also has not commented on the MNDAA’s statement.

Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military continues airstrikes in northern Shan State. According to a Sept. 24 MNDAA social media post,a recent strike killed one civilian and injured 16 in Lashio, former headquarters of the junta’s Northeastern Command. 

Beijing’s interests in Myanmar

Frequent visits by Chinese officials to Myanmar have reinforced perceptions that Beijing is siding with Myanmar’s military because it perceives the opposition groups to be in alignment with the United States, observers say.

“China sees the NUG and the People’s Defense Forces as Western-backed entities, and for China, that is a red line,” said Thomas Kean, senior consultant for Myanmar at the International Crisis Group.

According to Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based expert on China-Myanmar relations, Myanmar offers China a valuable connection to the Indian Ocean, providing an essential trade route that would allow Beijing to compete more effectively in the region with the United States.

“If Myanmar is stable, China’s southwestern land-locked provinces will have a safe and secure outlet to the sea,” Hla Kyaw Zaw explained. “Beijing wants these initiatives to move forward quickly.”

China is the largest investor in Myanmar, and the internal conflict is “not conducive to foreign investment and trade,” according to a Stimson Center report.

 

That said, Kean told VOA that despite MNDAA’s public stance on China, the group may still maintain limited cooperation with resistance forces to secure its territorial interests.

Nan Lwin, head of the Myanmar China studies program at the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar, said, “If China is to be credible for the Myanmar peace process, it will need to have a multi-country approach.”

Balancing act for opposition

Earlier this year, the National Unity Government, or NUG, issued its first formal policy statement on Beijing, pledging to safeguard Chinese investments and enterprise as resistance forces continue to gain ground in areas near the Chinese border. 

However, the Yangon-based analyst who spoke on the condition of anonymity said this policy is insufficient to win over China, which seeks complete control in the region and wants to prevent any outside influence, particularly from the United States, near its strategic access point to the Indian Ocean.

“The more the conflict escalates on its border, the greater the risk of disagreements between China and the U.S. on Myanmar,” Kean said.

 
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Tokyo — U.S. naval dominance, unchallenged for decades, is now coming under strain as China’s state-backed shipbuilding industry rapidly expands, while the U.S. Navy faces severe maintenance delays.

The impact is being felt across the Navy. While some ships and submarines are stuck waiting for repairs at overcrowded U.S. shipyards, others are forced into extended deployments, pushing crews and vessels to their limits.

Analysts say the delays undermine the U.S. ability to project strength and deter conflict, especially in key areas like the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, where China is upsetting the status quo.

To help fix the problem, the U.S. is turning to its allies — particularly Japan, one of the world’s largest shipbuilders. Earlier this year, U.S. and Japanese officials began negotiating a plan to expand Japan’s role in performing major repairs on U.S. Navy vessels at its shipyards.

Rahm Emanuel, U.S. ambassador to Japan, sees the proposal as crucial for keeping U.S. ships in the region. “The Indo-Pacific is an away game for us…but with allies, it’s closer to a home game,” Emanuel told VOA.

The discussions underscore Japan’s broader shift toward a more active regional security role, as it steps away from decades of pacifism. It’s also part of a strategy by the U.S. to encourage its Asian allies to take on greater security responsibilities in the face of China’s rising influence.

However, the proposal faces major hurdles. In the U.S., legal changes would be needed to allow foreign shipyards to overhaul Navy vessels. In Japan, there are concerns about becoming a bigger target for China.

Severe backlog

But for the U.S. Navy, the challenge is severe.

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), about a third of the U.S. attack submarine fleet is currently out of service, either undergoing maintenance or awaiting repairs.

Fewer than 40% of the Navy’s scheduled ship repairs are completed on time, according to recent congressional testimony. By some estimates, the Navy is 20 years behind in maintenance work.

A wide range of key shipbuilding projects are also running years behind schedule — an “extraordinary situation” in the post-World War II history of the Navy, according to CRS.

Emanuel argues this reflects a broader decline in the U.S. defense industrial base, which has been hollowed out since the 1990s and is “not ready” to meet U.S. security needs.

“Every weapon that we’ve agreed to here, I’ve had to renegotiate the contract once it’s signed because we can’t meet the budget at the timeline,” Emanuel said. “It’s really bad planning [and] really bad preparation.”

According to a recent CRS report, the Navy’s repair backlog is caused by a shortage of skilled workers and limited capacity at the four U.S. government-run naval shipyards.

China challenge

Meanwhile, China boasts 20 large shipyards, which it is using to quickly build up what is already the world’s largest navy in terms of overall vessels.

According to a recent unclassified slide released by U.S. naval intelligence, China’s shipbuilding capacity is over 200 times that of the United States, fueled by generous government subsidies.

Even though the U.S. still maintains significant naval advantages — such as 11 aircraft carriers compared to China’s three and an unrivaled network of global alliances — some observers believe that China’s ability to dwarf U.S. shipbuilding represents a fundamental shift in the regional balance of power.

“We’ve let that underlying capacity atrophy to the point where we’re behind the eight ball at the moment, and that’s a big, thorny problem,” said Sam Byers, the senior national security advisor at the Washington D.C.-based Center for Maritime Strategy.

Benefits and drawbacks

In Emanuel’s estimation, the U.S.-Japan ship repair proposal could alleviate the U.S. Navy’s maintenance backlog, freeing U.S. shipyards to focus on meeting their construction goals. It would also allow U.S. ships to stay for longer in Asia, he said.

But not everyone agrees.

Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, argues that the problem isn’t a lack of shipyard capacity but rather their inconsistent use, due to fluctuating demand from the Navy. He suggests that repairing more ships overseas could help manage these fluctuations and minimize disruptions for Japan-based crews.

“And repair yards in Japan could gain experience working on U.S. ships, which could be beneficial in a conflict,” he added.

However, he cautioned that shifting work overseas wouldn’t solve the underlying issues of funding and planning that contribute to the Navy’s repair delays.

“Of course, the Japanese ship repair yards may do a better job or be more efficient than their American counterparts. If that is the argument, then U.S. officials should make that clear,” Clark said.

Others in the shipbuilding industry have argued against what they see as outsourcing U.S. Navy shipbuilding and repairs, a step they characterize as “kicking American shipyard workers to the curb.”

Japan risks

There are also barriers in Japan, where public opinion doesn’t always align with the government’s more assertive security stance.

While certain segments of the Japanese public appear more supportive of increased military involvement after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s unclear how deep or lasting this shift is, warned Misato Matsuoka, an associate professor at Teikyo University.

“There is this gap of understanding when it comes to what is going on in the security area,” Matsuoka said. “I don’t see a lot of Japanese who are even aware of these changes.”

Matsuoka also warned that the U.S.-Japan ship repair proposal could eventually be seen as one of many factors escalating U.S.-China tensions, potentially impacting Japan negatively.

“All the things Japan is doing makes it more important within the U.S. alliance but that also increases the risk of something happening to Japanese territory,” said Robert Ward, Japan Chair at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

While Japan deepens ties with the U.S., it is careful not to provoke China, Ward noted. Nonetheless, Japan, like many countries, remains wary of what it sees as China’s destabilizing behavior in the region.

“This isn’t happening in a vacuum,” Ward said, referring to Japan’s changing security posture. “There are very good reasons why all this is happening.”

When it comes to the U.S.-Japan ship repair deal, the choices are also complex for the United States, Emanuel acknowledged. However, he argued, sometimes “you’ve got to choose between what’s bad and what’s worse.”
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TOKYO — At least two candidates vying to become Japan’s next prime minister are planning to tackle one of the country’s most sacred political cows: labor market reforms that would make it easier for businesses to hire and fire workers.

Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old son of former premier Junichiro Koizumi, and Taro Kono, who as digital minister is trying to promote more innovation, have both called for relaxing Japan’s rigid labor rules.

Those rules have been a feature of Japan’s “salary-man” corporate culture for decades, dating from when the country’s post-war population was growing and its traditional labor model of lifetime employment was effective.

But rigid labor rules have been more recently blamed for blocking the movement of labor from mature sectors into growing ones where employees are needed in a tight labor market.

“The ongoing labor market reform is missing the crux of the issue, and that’s the revision to dismissal rules,” Koizumi said this month.

“An ultimate growth strategy is to create a system that fosters a labor shift to startups and small firms in growth sectors,” said Koizumi, who pledged to submit a labor reform bill next year if elected party leader.

Kono specifically proposed establishing a monetary compensation framework for dismissed workers as a way to settle disputes, a step he said would allow more flexibility in the labor market.

Overhauling dismissal rules is politically sensitive in Japan, having been repeatedly pushed back with little progress made in the past.

International bodies such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have also long blamed the lack of employment flexibility for Japan’s low labor productivity, low rates of new business entries and income gap between regular and non-regular staff.

On average, Japanese workers have been with their current employer for 12.3 years, compared to 4.1 years in the United States and 9.7 years in Germany. A Gallup poll found only 6% of Japanese workers engaged in their jobs compared to the 23% global average.

The statutory law on dismissal is vague, but judicial precedents have established four criteria that have to be met, raising the bar high for layoffs, experts say.

The rules, for example, require the company to prove that there is an economic need to decrease its workforce and all efforts have been made to avoid dismissals when firing employees.

“The biggest issue is that these rules are based on judicial precedents decades ago,” said Kotaro Kurashige, a lawyer who specializes in labor issues.

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, which has a parliamentary majority, will elect a new leader on Sept. 27, with the winner to replace outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. A record nine candidates are running in the race.

As in the past, the policy pledges by Koizumi and Kono have sparked heavy backlash on social media and from labor unions, as well as from conservative lawmakers worried such changes could increase layoffs.

“I strongly object to any relaxation of rules that allow companies to freely fire workers,” Tomoko Yoshino, the president of Japan’s largest labor organization Rengo, said in an emergency study session last week.

Some also doubt the validity of the argument that relaxed dismissal rules would help rejuvenate the economy.

“It may not be true that relaxed rules would promote a shift of labor to growth sectors and overall wage growth, as dismissed workers may end up with low-paying jobs,” Takuya Hoshino, economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, said.

The negative reactions have forced Koizumi to water down his pledge and shift his focus more to increasing support for workers to acquire skills and find new jobs, initiatives already launched by the Kishida administration.

Still, proponents say the opportunity for reform is now greater than in the past, as Japan exits years of deflation with companies delivering the biggest wage hikes in three decades this year and the jobless rate consistently below 3%.

Suntory Holdings CEO Takeshi Niinami, one of the leading voices of corporate Japan, welcomed the issue coming up during the ruling party leadership race.

“Those rules were created during the manufacturing-centered postwar economic boom and must be reviewed,” said Niinami, who also serves as chair of the Keizai Doyukai business lobby.

It’s good timing for such discussion as labor shortages and tougher competition for talent have begun to push up wages, he said. “I want new-generation leaders to discuss how to change all postwar frameworks without any taboo.”
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With pro-democracy publisher Jimmy Lai jailed in Hong Kong facing widely condemned charges, the journalist’s son and his international legal team are pushing the United States and other countries to help secure Lai’s immediate release. From Washington, Liam Scott has the story for VOA
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BEIJING/TAIPEI — China’s national security ministry said on Monday a Taiwan military-backed hacking group called Anonymous 64 has been carrying out cyberattacks against targets in China, urging people to report “anti-propaganda sabotage.”

Taiwan’s defense ministry denied the allegations, saying China was the real disturber of the peace with its cyber attacks and military harassment.

Since the beginning of this year, Anonymous 64 – which China’s national security ministry said belonged to Taiwan’s cyber warfare wing – has sought to upload and broadcast “content that denigrates the mainland’s political system and major policies,” on websites, outdoor screens and network TV stations, it said in a blog post.

Taiwan frequently accuses Chinese groups of seeking to spread online disinformation or carry out cyberattacks across the democratically governed island. China claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has ramped up military and political pressure against over the past five years to assert its claims.

The Taiwan defense ministry’s Information, Communications and Electronic Force Command said China’s accusations were untrue.

“The current enemy situation and cyber threats are severe,” it said in a statement. “The Chinese communist military and forces that coordinate with it continue to use aircraft, ships and cyber attacks to harass Taiwan and are the originators of undermining regional peace.”

Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims.

The hacking group’s X account said it was set up in June 2023 and showed screenshots of efforts to broadcast videos likening Chinese President Xi Jinping to an emperor, marking the second anniversary of protests against Beijing’s strict COVID curbs and commemorating the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations.

One video was an address from an Anonymous 64 member wearing the Anonymous hacking group’s Guy Fawkes mask in the style of the graphic novel and film V for Vendetta.

Neither the X site nor the blog post from China’s national security ministry said whether Anonymous 64 had any affiliation with the international hacking group.

Reuters was not immediately able to verify where the group was based or whether they had actually carried out the hacking attacks they were accused of.

In the blog post published on its official WeChat account, the national security ministry said its investigation into the group had found many of the websites Anonymous 64 claimed to have accessed were fake or had little no traffic. Posts showing it having infiltrated numerous university and media websites had been photoshopped, the ministry added.

The security ministry published screenshots of the group’s X account with heavily redacted text. It also said it had opened a case against three members of Taiwan’s cyber warfare wing.

“We advocate that netizens should not believe in or spread rumors and should promptly report cyberattacks or cases of anti-propaganda activity to the national security authorities,” the blog post said.
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