Washington — Indonesia’s newly inaugurated President Prabowo Subianto set off for China on Friday for his first international trip as president. 

“From Beijing I will fly directly to Washington, D.C., on the invitation of the U.S. president,” said Prabowo upon departing Jakarta. Indonesians often refer to public figures by their first names.

His tour aims to “cultivate good relations with all parties,” Prabowo said. He has stated his ambition to raise Indonesia’s international profile and made early foreign policy moves, including a surprise decision to join Southeast Asia’s largest economy to the BRICS bloc. 

BRICS, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, comprises a growing group of emerging economies and is seen as a counterweight to the West. In October, the group added Indonesia as one of its 13 new “partner countries.” 

The move is a shift away from the position taken by Prabowo’s predecessor, Joko Widodo, who took in massive amounts of infrastructure investments from Beijing but remained mostly nonaligned geopolitically.   

Prabowo’s visit comes during a transitional period at the White House, ahead of the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump in January. The White House has not formally announced the visit; however, Jakarta said Prabowo is scheduled to meet U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House early next week. 

Indonesian diplomatic sources who spoke under condition of anonymity told VOA that Prabowo has requested a meeting with Trump. The Trump team has not responded to VOA’s query on whether it will be granted.   

New period of US-Indonesia ties 

Starting in January, both countries will be under the helm of leaders who were democratically elected but have employed authoritarian rhetoric, at a time when Washington is focused on its rivalry with the authoritarian regime in China under Xi Jinping. 

Like Trump, Prabowo made a historical political comeback under unlikely circumstances. He secured a landslide victory after two failed attempts, 26 years after his father-in-law, President Suharto, was ousted from power. This, despite Prabowo admitting he was ordered by Suharto in 1998 to abduct activists protesting the regime.  

Washington was aware of Prabowo’s involvement, and the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations denied Prabowo entry to the U.S., citing human rights concerns. The Trump administration lifted the visa ban and then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper invited then-Defense Minister Prabowo to Washington in 2020.    

With Trump in the White House, analysts say, Jakarta could see more opportunities to expand ties with Washington if Prabowo makes inroads through the right people for the right incentives, given Trump’s history of relying more on personal connections than institutional relationships.   

Personal connections 

Jakarta’s point person for Washington under the first Trump administration was Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, a businessman and retired four-star army general who then served as coordinating minister for maritime affairs and investment.    

Luhut developed close ties with Adam Boehler, head of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and a former college roommate of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. In 2020, Boehler dangled the promise of a $2 billion investment into Indonesia’s planned sovereign wealth fund.

The plan fell through because the price, recognition of Israel under the Trump administration’s Abraham Accords, was too high for Jakarta, according to an interview Boehler gave to Bloomberg at the end of 2020.   

In Prabowo’s administration, Luhut holds the position of head of the National Economic Council and special adviser on investment affairs. But in a Cabinet of more than 100 officials, his influence has diminished. 

“The deck is being shuffled right now, and we don’t know yet where the cards will land,” said Yeremia Lalisang, assistant professor of international relations at the University of Indonesia. What’s clear, Lalisang told VOA, is that the “pragmatic” Prabowo will be delighted to be welcomed by Trump after being treated as a “human rights criminal” by previous U.S. administrations. 

One possibility to bolster ties under Trump would be for Prabowo to capitalize on the connection between billionaires among Trump’s inner circle. This would include Trump’s wealthiest backer, Elon Musk, and Hary Tanoesoedibjo, an Indonesian tycoon who has partnered with the Trump family on several real estate projects in Indonesia. Both were at Trump’s residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Tuesday night, celebrating his election victory. 

Tanoesoedibjo, who commonly goes by his initials H.T., would not confirm whether he is facilitating a Trump-Prabowo meeting next week. However, he said, Trump’s victory would bring “positive hope for Indonesia.” 

“Trump’s favorable understanding of Indonesia should be maximalized for the economic benefit of both countries, especially Indonesia’s economic interests,” H.T. told VOA.  

Investing in nickel 

Under Jokowi’s administration, Jakarta courted Musk, head of SpaceX and Tesla, to invest in two key areas: satellites and electric vehicle batteries. Earlier this year, Musk launched SpaceX’s satellite internet service, Starlink, in Bali and Maluku.   

With the Earth’s largest reserves of nickel, Indonesia is eager to develop its EV battery industry, and Prabowo is expected to continue his predecessor’s yearslong effort to lure Tesla to invest. 

The Biden administration has put aside tens of billions of dollars in tax credits to spur the U.S. EV industry, under the Inflation Reduction Act, its signature climate and energy legislation. To qualify for the credit, 40% of the minerals used for battery production for EVs sold in the U.S. must be extracted or processed domestically or in one of its free-trade partners.   

Jakarta has been pushing for a limited free-trade agreement that will allow it to benefit from IRA tax credits. However, its nickel industry is backed by investment from Chinese companies and besieged by environmental concerns, limiting its access to the U.S. market. 

“You might see some of this calculus change during the course of the Trump administration,” said Andreyka Natalegawa, associate fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Trump has vowed to loosen environmental restrictions. 

U.S.-Indonesia cooperation on nickel is “out there as an objective,” said Ann Marie Murphy, senior research scholar at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University. “If it fails to come to fruition, I think that could be disappointing to both sides,” she told VOA. 

However, Trump, who has made high tariffs on China a central theme of his campaign, will be looking closely at the tariffs’ impact on the EV industry. He has vowed to roll back tax credits available to EV buyers in the U.S.   

He will also be watching bilateral trade deficits. In 2017, his administration placed Indonesia on a watchlist of countries that have a large trade surplus, threatening Jakarta with unspecified consequences if trade was not brought into balance.    

“There’s lots of question marks here that we still need to wait and see to get answers,” Natalegawa told VOA. 

Yuni Salim contributed to this report.
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JAKARTA, INDONESIA — Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is in Beijing Friday for his first official visit to China, where he is expected to meet with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. Experts say he hopes to maintain the personal rapport with the Chinese leaders established by his predecessor, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.

“Presumably, he will be leaning more toward Beijing for economic purposes since Prabowo has ambitious plans for achieving 8% economic growth,” Aristyo Darmawan, a lecturer in international law at Universitas Indonesia, told VOA.

However, Darmawan voiced concern about reports that Prabowo has proposed to collaborate with China on oil exploration in the North Natuna Sea, a portion of the South China Sea that has long been controlled by Indonesia and lies within its Exclusive Economic Zone but is claimed by China.

“I think this is unnecessary and actually dangerous for Indonesia,” he said. “I think Prabowo is keen to have a closer relationship with Beijing, and, therefore, it might indicate how he might respond to any incursion in the North Natuna Sea.”

In his inaugural speech to Parliament on October 20, Prabowo vowed to bolster the defense of Indonesian territory. The next day, Indonesia’s Maritime Security Agency drove a Chinese coast guard ship away from a contested area in the North Natuna Sea.

The same ship returned on October 24 and 25, disrupting a survey being conducted by Indonesia’s state-owned oil company, Pertamina. The three intrusions, coming within a week during Prabowo’s first days in office, prompting questions about Beijing’s motives.

Past territorial disputes

Confrontations have dated back for years in the region, which is believed to hold huge, unexploited oil and gas deposits. These prompted then-President Widodo to hold a Cabinet meeting aboard a warship off the Natuna islands in 2016 to assert Indonesia’s sovereignty.

In December 2020, Widodo again visited the Natuna islands amid a stand-off between Indonesian warships and Chinese coast guard vessels escorting 60 fishing boats. Afterward, Indonesia deployed fighter jets and warships to patrol the waters, and it sent a diplomatic note to the Chinese ambassador to Indonesia.

One year later, China demanded that Indonesia stop drilling for oil and natural gas in the sea. A letter from Chinese diplomats to Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry claimed that a temporary offshore rig operated by Indonesia was in Chinese territory.

In 2023, a Chinese coast guard ship escorted a Chinese research ship without permission into North Natuna waters to carry out exploration activities.

Better monitoring

Ario Seno, a researcher at the Indonesian Maritime Security agency, said Indonesia does not have enough manpower and patrol boats to monitor the vast area effectively. This makes it hard to catch trespassing fishing boats or coast guard ships in a timely manner.

To address the problem, the agency is developing a monitoring system using buoys equipped with radar, long-distance surveillance cameras and sonar, which will be connected to its satellite system and the agency’s base.

“Our patrol boats will be able to focus on enforcing the law, so we don’t have to often patrol around in circles and then find nothing. With the existence of these floating surveillance tools, violations can be immediately detected, and the available patrol boats can immediately take action,” Ario said.

Indonesian authorities say the proposed system could be ready by 2026 and will provide major savings in surveillance costs.

China’s lukewarm response

During an October 24 press conference, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian defended China’s behavior in North Natuna, insisting the waters belonged to his country even though Beijing’s expansive claims to the South China Sea have been rejected by an international tribunal.

“China’s coast guard vessel carries out routine patrols in waters under the jurisdiction of China in accordance with international law and China’s domestic laws,” Lin said. “China stands ready to enhance communication and consultation with Indonesia through diplomatic channels and properly handle maritime issues between the two countries.”

A week later, Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Rolliansyah “Roy” Soemirat, said Indonesia’s position on the contested waters “remains unchanged.”

“We continue to have dialogue behind the scenes and other diplomatic efforts to address this issue proportionally with other countries,” he said, adding that Indonesia was in the process of seeking confirmation and exchanging “the most factual” information with the related parties.

Aristyo, the Universitas Indonesia lecturer, said Indonesia should be careful in its talks with China to ensure that Indonesia is treating the issue seriously.

He said that in the past, Prabowo has sent mixed signals regarding the territorial dispute. It’s too early to judge how he will respond as president, but there are expectations he will defend Indonesia’s sovereign waters more forcefully.
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MANILA, Philippines — Typhoon Yinxing battered the northern Philippines with floods and landslides before blowing away from the country on Friday, leaving two airports damaged and aggravating a calamity caused by back-to-back storms that hit in recent weeks.

There were no immediate reports of casualties from Yinxing, the 13th major storm to hit the disaster-prone Southeast Asian archipelago this year.

The typhoon, locally called Marce, was last tracked over the South China Sea about 100 kilometers west of the northern Philippine province of Ilocos Norte with sustained winds of up to 150 kph and gusts of up to 205 kph, according to government forecasters. It is expected to weaken further before hitting Vietnam.

The typhoon flooded villages, toppled trees and electricity poles, and damaged houses and buildings in Cagayan province, where Yinxing made landfall Thursday afternoon, provincial officials said. More than 40,000 villagers were evacuated to safer ground in the province.

In the northernmost island province of Batanes, Gov. Marilou Cayco said Yinxing’s fierce winds and rain blew away roofs of houses and damaged seaports and two domestic airport terminals.

More details of damage, including in two northern mountain towns hit by landslides, were expected after provinces battered by the typhoon complete an assessment, officials said.

The new damage will complicate recovery efforts from two powerful storms that lashed the northern region in recent weeks.

Tropical Storm Trami and Typhoon Kong-rey left at least 151 people dead in the Philippines and affected nearly 9 million others, mostly in the northern and central provinces. More than 14 billion pesos ($241 million) in rice, corn and other crops and infrastructure were damaged.

Trami dumped one to two months’ worth of rain in just 24 hours in some regions. In the hardest-hit province of Batangas, south of Manila, at least 61 people died in floods and landslides.

More than 630,000 people were still displaced due to Trami and Kong-rey as of Thursday, officials said, including 172,000 who remained in emergency shelters as Yinxing blew across the country’s mountainous north.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. decided not to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru next week to focus on recovery efforts, Communications Secretary Cesar Chavez said.

In 2013, Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest recorded tropical cyclones, left more than 7,300 people dead or missing, flattened entire villages and caused ships to run aground and smash into houses in the central Philippines. The archipelago also lies in a region often hit by earthquakes and has more than a dozen active volcanoes, making it one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. 
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SEOUL, South Korea — A fishing boat capsized and sank off the coast of South Korea’s Jeju island on Friday, leaving at least two people dead and 12 others unaccounted for, coast guard officials said.

Nearby fishing vessels managed to pull 15 crew members out of the water, but two of them were later pronounced dead after being brought to shore. The other 13 did not sustain life-threatening injuries, said Kim Han-na, an official at Jeju’s coast guard.

She said 27 crew members -– 16 South Koreans and 11 Indonesians -– were on the 129-ton boat, which left Jeju’s Seogwipo port late Thursday to catch mackerel.

The coast guard received a distress signal at around 4:30 a.m. Friday from a nearby fishing vessel that conducted rescue efforts as the boat sank about 22 kilometers northwest of the island. The rescuers were slowed by strong winds and waves of about 2 meters.

At least 30 vessels and 13 aircraft from South Korea’s coast guard, police, fire service and military were deployed as of Friday morning to search for survivors. They were being assisted by 13 civilian vessels.

Jung Moo-won, Jeju coast guard’s director of security and safety, said rescue workers have confirmed the location of the sunken boat and have dispatched divers to search the vessel.

The two crew members who died were South Koreans. Of the 13 survivors, nine were Indonesians, Jung said. Among the 12 missing, 10 were South Koreans. Jung said South Korean officials contacted the Indonesian Embassy to reach the families of the Indonesia crew members.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol called for officials to mobilize all available resources to find and rescue the missing crew members, his office said. 
…

Taipei, Taiwan — Leaders from China and Taiwan have congratulated Donald Trump’s national election victory, despite growing uncertainty about how his second presidential term might impact dynamics across the Taiwan Strait.

Chinese President Xi Jinping urged China and the United States to find the right way to get along in the new era, to benefit ‘’both countries and the wider world.”

He hopes the two sides will “uphold the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences and expand mutually beneficial cooperation,” according to a readout released by China’s official Xinhua News Agency on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, who came to power in May, said in a post on social media platform X that he is confident that the “longstanding Taiwan-U.S. partnership, built on shared values and interests, will continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability and lead to greater prosperity.” 

On the Chinese internet, some social media users say they expect Trump to impose high tariffs on Chinese products but expressed mixed views on how the looming trade war might affect the Chinese economy. 

In Taiwan, some Taiwanese people express concern about the U.S. reducing their support for Taiwan under Trump’s second term due to his comments about Taiwan during the campaign and his isolationist approach to international affairs. 

“Judging from his comments on Taiwan over the last few months, I worry the U.S. won’t be so supportive of Taiwan if they want to stabilize relations with China,” Lydia Yang, a 35-year-old marketing professional in Taipei, told VOA by phone.

During an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in July, Trump said Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defense and compared U.S. military spending on Taiwan to an insurance policy.

“I know the people very well. Respect them greatly. They did take 100% of our chip business. I think Taiwan should pay us for defense,” he said during the interview. 

In addition to asking Taiwan to pay for U.S. protection, Trump also accused Taiwan of stealing semiconductor technologies from the United States and threatened to impose tariffs against Taiwanese semiconductor companies.

“We put up billions of dollars for rich companies to come in and borrow the money and build chip companies here. They’re not going to give us the good companies anyway,” he said during an interview with Joe Rogan on October 25. 

Some Taiwanese people said these comments reflect Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy and underline that he would prioritize American interests once he returns to the White House next January.

“When it comes to things that don’t directly benefit the U.S., I would be worried about his approach,” Lai Ming-Wei, a 44-year-old engineer, told VOA in a recorded interview.

The Trump campaign has not yet responded to a VOA request for comment regarding the president-elect’s policy toward Taiwan.

Despite these concerns, some Taiwanese officials have tried to reassure the public that bilateral relations between Taiwan and the United States won’t significantly change under the second Trump administration.

“On relations across the Taiwan Strait, we believe that the United States will continue its current approach of constraining China and being friendly to Taiwan,” Tsai Ming-yen, Director-General of Taiwan National Security Bureau, told journalists on the sideline of Taiwan’s parliament on Wednesday.

Analysts say while the basic elements of U.S.-Taiwan relations will remain the same, Trump’s campaign comments and more isolationist foreign policy approach could increase uncertainty for bilateral relations between Taipei and Washington.

“We don’t know what version of Donald Trump we are going to see and this kind of uncertainty doesn’t bring stability and predictability to the Taiwan Strait,” Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University, told VOA by phone.

Other experts say Taiwan will have to take concrete actions to convince Trump that the island is serious about boosting its defense capabilities amid rising military pressure from China.

“Taiwan needs to offer something concrete, such as increasing the defense budget, because if Taiwan fails to do so, Trump may think Taiwan isn’t doing anything, so he doesn’t need to be too nice to Taiwan,” said Chen Fang-yu, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taiwan, speaking by phone to VOA.

Taiwan’s defense minister Wellington Koo said on Tuesday that Taipei must show its determination to defend itself regardless of who won the U.S. presidential election.

“We have to let them understand that Taiwan has the determination to defend itself, and the importance of Taiwan’s economic security and strategic geopolitical position,” he told journalists on the sidelines of the parliament. 

However, some Chinese analysts say Taiwan’s attempt to deepen military cooperation with the United States, including buying more weapons from Washington, would be counterproductive to the stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Trump’s comments about Taiwan paying for U.S. protection mean “he is asking Taiwan to increase their defense spending so they can buy more American weapons, but sending more arms to Taiwan wouldn’t help convince China that peaceful reunification is still possible,” Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in China, told VOA by phone.

Despite concerns about Trump’s potential policies toward Taiwan, based on his campaign comments, some analysts say it remains to be seen how his administration will formulate Taiwan policies.

“There are different voices in his camp. There are voices focusing on the economic competition side, which is represented by Trump himself, and there are voices talking about pulling away from Europe and focusing more resources in Asia to compete with China, and there are voices looking at drawing together U.S. assets, including allies, to compete hard with China,” Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, told VOA by phone.

However, he said Taiwan should be prepared for potential inconsistency in Trump’s approach as he tends to “cycle through officials very quickly” during his first term in office. “That inconsistency may create an impression that there’s an opening for Beijing,” Chong said.
…

Ukrainian officials reported damage to residential buildings Thursday after overnight Russian drone attacks, while South Korea’s president said he would not rule out sending weapons to Ukrainian forces.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram that the Russian attack damaged houses and apartment buildings in five districts in the Ukrainian capital.

Serhii Popko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, said Ukrainian air defenses shot down more than three dozen drones over the Kyiv region, and that two people were injured.

In the Odesa region in southern Ukraine, Governor Oleh Kiper said Thursday falling drone debris damaged several buildings and injured one person.

Serhiy Lysak, governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, reported on Telegram that Russian drone attacks damaged five houses overnight, but did not cause any injuries.

Officials in Cherkasy, Kherson and Mykolaiv also said Thursday that air defenses shot down Russian drones in their regions.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it destroyed two Ukrainian aerial drones over Voronezh, where officials said there were no reports of damage or casualties.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said at a news conference Thursday in Seoul that his government will “gradually adjust our support strategy in phases” depending on how much North Korea becomes involved in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“This means we are not ruling out the possibility of providing weapons,” Yoon said.

South Korean and U.S. officials have said North Korea has more than 10,000 troops deployed to Russia’s Kursk region.

On Wednesday, foreign ministers from the Group of 7, along with South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, issued a joint statement expressing “grave concerns” over “DPRK’s direct support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” referring to North Korea’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). 

“We condemn in the strongest possible terms the increasing military cooperation between the DPRK and Russia, including the DPRK’s export and Russia’s unlawful procurement of DPRK ballistic missiles in breach of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs), as well as Russia’s use of these missiles and munitions against Ukraine,” the ministers said, warning that this could dangerously expand the conflict with serious implications for European and Indo-Pacific security.

They also voiced serious concerns about any potential transfer of nuclear or missile-related technology from Russia to North Korea.

Some information for this story was provided by Agence France-Presse, Reuters and The Associated Press.

 
…

Ho Chi Minh City — Vietnam is taking a more outspoken and transparent approach in response to China’s recent detention of Vietnamese fishermen in the South China Sea, analysts tell VOA.

Hanoi is also moving forward with the construction of a new airstrip on a reef in its exclusive economic zone to further assert its sovereignty and challenge Beijing’s claims.

Late last week, deputy spokesperson for Vietnam’s foreign affairs ministry Doan Khac Viet called on China to release the fishermen who were captured with their fishing vessels in waters surrounding the Paracel Islands. Vietnam did not specify when or how many fishermen were detained. 

“Vietnam resolutely opposes China’s actions, and requests China to fully respect Vietnam’s rights over the Paracel Islands, release all illegally detained Vietnamese fishermen and vessels, compensate for damage, and stop and not repeat the harassment and illegal capture of Vietnamese vessels and fishermen,” Viet said during a news conference late last week on October 31.

Viet did not say when or how many fishermen have been detained. However, Radio Free Asia quoted a Chinese think tank saying this week that Vietnamese fishermen have been in Chinese detention in the Paracel archipelago for more than six months.

The Beijing-based South China Sea Probing Initiative, or SCSPI, said on the social media platform X that the fishermen “were detained in April and May” for illegal fishing activities in the waters around the Paracels, RFA reported.

“There are always Vietnamese fishermen in waters that are sensitive,” Raymond Powell, a fellow at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, told VOA on Monday. “We don’t know really how many have been detained because Vietnam is not the most transparent of administrations.”

China has disputed Vietnam’s description of what happened.

Asked about the incident last Friday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said, “China urges the Vietnamese side to do more to ask their fishermen to stop being engaged in illegal activities in waters under China’s jurisdiction.”

Known as Hoang Sa in Vietnamese, the Paracels have been under Chinese control since it occupied the islands in a violent conflict with Vietnam in 1974. China claims that most of the South China Sea is part of its territory, despite an international ruling to the contrary.

Nguyen Khac Giang, visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said China’s harassment of Vietnamese fishermen around the Paracels is common but Hanoi’s recent response shows a new approach from Hanoi.

“I think this move is inspired by the ‘transparency initiative’ by the Philippines,” Giang told VOA on a November 5 call, referring to how the Philippines government under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been exposing China’s aggression in the South China Sea.

Hanoi must manage a delicate balancing act, squeezed between its powerful neighbor, Western allies, and showing its population, it is not kowtowing to China, Giang added.

By taking a more transparent approach similar to the Philippines, Vietnam is allowing “anyone who wants to know about the current situation in the South China Sea dispute to judge for themselves who is right and who is wrong,” Giang said. “Vietnam has to play the game. Having this kind of transparency initiative is a part of the game.”

Clashing at sea

Vietnam hasn’t been as outspoken regarding China’s actions in the South China Sea since 2014, when China deployed an oil rig near the Paracel Islands, Giang said. The move led to anti-China protests in Vietnam and a monthslong standoff between Chinese and Vietnamese vessels.

Giang noticed Hanoi again taking a more public approach in early October when local media reported a “brutal attack on fishermen from Quang Ngai province.”

According to local outlet VnExpress, two Chinese ships surrounded a Vietnamese fishing vessel on September 29. About 40 people from the Chinese ships boarded the Vietnamese vessel and beat the fishermen with metal rods, breaking bones and leaving one man unconscious.

The Vietnamese fishermen said their gear and fish catch weighing four tons were also stolen before they were allowed to return to land.

A fisherman in his 30s from coastal Binh Thuan province described Chinese fishing vessels in that area are “armed and aggressive.”

“The Chinese don’t seem afraid of us,” he told VOA in Vietnamese on November 4, asking to withhold his name due to the sensitivity of the topic. “In fact, they behave as if the area belongs to their country.”

The fishermen in Binh Thuan said one of his friends has “been threatened by a Chinese boat” and another has had their vessel “attacked” by a Chinese ship and their equipment stolen.

On October 2, foreign ministry spokesperson Pham Thu Hang stated, “Vietnam is extremely concerned, indignant and resolutely protests the brutal treatment by Chinese law enforcement forces of Vietnamese fishermen.”

Powell of Stanford University, said that Hanoi is generally more tight-lipped when it comes to China’s attacks on Vietnamese fishermen, but the recent beatings may have been impossible for Hanoi to ignore.

“They may just have reached their limit,” Powell told VOA over the phone on November 4. “The injury to those fishermen was so bad that it really couldn’t be contained.”

New airstrip

In addition to protesting China’s treatment of Vietnamese fishermen, Hanoi has been building up artificial islands in the South China Sea. Satellite imagery shows its most recent effort is building an airstrip on Barque Canada reef, a rock near the within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone.

Collin Koh Swee Lean, senior fellow at Singapore’s Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, told VOA on November 5 that the airstrip could be as long as 3,000 meters (1.86 miles). He noted that the airstrip is likely to be used for temporary stopovers, refueling aircraft, and potentially to store munitions and rearm during a crisis.

The airstrip “will allow the Vietnamese to have a much more persistent presence over the South China Sea,” Koh said.

Powell said that Vietnam has used China’s preoccupation with the Philippines in recent years to focus on island-building. “China hasn’t said very much about [Vietnam’s island-building] perhaps because they’ve been so preoccupied with the Philippines,” Powell said. “Vietnam is literally strengthening their military outposts.”

Growing its military strength at sea is considered crucial for Hanoi as China’s influence grows over neighboring Cambodia and Laos. Hanoi may also be concerned about the Philippines swinging to a more China-friendly leadership in its 2028 election.

“The Vietnamese realized that there is so much Chinese build-up in the neighborhood,” he said. “Vietnam is trying to counter that with its own build-up.” 
…

Ukraine’s military said Tuesday it shot down two Russian guided missiles as well as 48 of the 79 drones that Russian forces used in overnight attacks.

The intercepts took place over the Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Odesa, Poltava, Sumy and Zhytomyr regions, the Ukrainian air force said.

Ivan Fedorov, governor of the Zaporizhzhia region, said Tuesday a Russian attack killed at least six people and wounded 16 others. Fedorov said on Telegram that Russia hit an infrastructure facility.

Officials in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region also reported a Russian attack that injured two people and damaged three apartment buildings.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday it destroyed six Ukrainian aerial drones over the Kursk region.

The governor of Bryansk, Alexander Bogomaz, said on Telegram there were no reports of damage or casualties.

A spokesperson for the South Korean Defense Ministry said at a briefing Tuesday that there are more than 10,000 North Korea soldiers currently in Russia, including a portion deployed to frontline areas such as in Kursk.

The statement, which spokesperson Jeon Ha-Gyu said was based on intelligence authorities, came a day after a similar assessment from the U.S. Defense Department.

Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters that there could be as many as 11,000 to 12,000 North Korean troops in Russia, with most of them in Kursk.

Ryder said the Pentagon could not corroborate reports that the North Koreans were engaged in combat.

Some information for this story was provided by Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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BEIJING — In an unusual warning, China’s navy told young officers and personnel that they could get ensnared by online dating scams and virtual gambling if they let down their guard, exposing themselves to security risks and undermining the military.

Addressing those born from 1990 who are “becoming the core of the army,” the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy said in a social media post that young soldiers should avoid revealing their military identity online as they could be “extremely easy” targets of criminals.

The political and confidential nature of the military profession dictates that the military personnel identity must not be exposed online, it said.

“Distinguish carefully and keep some distance when making friends online,” a line in the post advised, and “never lose sight of your principles and make random friends with netizens.”

The navy also cautioned against virtual gambling, which is illegal in China, likening gambling addiction to being “possessed by a demon” and warning against schemes that could lead to a “fall into an endless abyss” of debt.

China’s military projects an image of power, from launching drills around democratically governed Taiwan to deploying patrols in the South China Sea. But President Xi Jinping, also the military’s commander-in-chief, has often warned that the armed forces face “deep-seated” problems from within, including corruption and a lack of discipline.

Young soldiers are not the only demographic singled out. Xi has also stressed political loyalty from senior military personnel.

At a military conference in June, Xi emphasized upholding the Chinese Communist Party’s “absolute leadership” over the PLA and that the armed forces must always “uphold their core values, maintain purity, and strictly adhere to discipline.”

Xi attributed the root cause of problems to the lack of ideals and beliefs, calling on the armed forces particularly senior cadres, to “introspect, engage in soul-searching reflections, and make earnest rectifications,” according to official news agency Xinhua.
…

washington — Pyongyang may have bet all its chips on its relationship with Moscow by committing the lives of its soldiers to fight for Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine, according to analysts.

North Korean soldiers are gearing up for an anticipated battle in the Russian border region of Kursk.

According to the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine on Saturday, more than 7,000 North Korean soldiers in the front line near the border were armed with various weapons by Russia. They included 60 mm mortars, AK-12 rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers.

Some North Korean soldiers in the region have already come under fire, according to a message that Andriy Kovalenko, the head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, posted on Telegram on Monday.

The U.S. estimates that 8,000 soldiers are in the Kursk Oblast to fight in front-line operations against Ukraine forces in the coming days.

“There is no more significant and long-term a commitment one country can make to another than sending troops at wartime,” Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told VOA.

“I never believed this was short term, at least from the North Korean perspective,” said Cha, who formerly served as the deputy head of the U.S. delegation to the Six Party Talks with North Korea.

Cha added that Kim could face many risks by deploying troops  thousands of miles away from home and exposing them to fight alongside Russian soldiers.

“What if North Korean soldiers desert or are captured? What is the future of DPRK-Europe relations? What if South Korean weapons [supplied via the U.S to Ukraine thus far] kills North Korean soldiers? What if Ukraine makes a point of targeting North Korean soldiers for propaganda purposes?” he asked.

Long-term commitment

Cha, in an article CSIS published October 23, said that by sending troops, North Korea may have crossed the point of no return in its ties with Russia.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun said during a news conference in Washington, held last week after a security meeting, that Seoul is looking to send a team to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops.

When Kim visited Russia last year and began sending munitions the same year, some analysts saw him as largely engaged in a short-term transactional relationship with Moscow.

But after North Korea deployed troops to Russia — a move in line with a mutual defense treaty the two signed this summer — and joined Moscow’s war efforts against Ukraine and, by default, against NATO and U.S. interests, Kim is viewed as engaged in an “all-in” relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin that comes with major risks.

Evans Revere, a former State Department official with extensive experience negotiating with North Korea, said, “Kim Jong Un’s willingness to take these risks suggests he is ‘all in’ on the relationship with Moscow and prepared to make important sacrifices to show support for his Russian patron, in the hope that doing so will yield the benefits he seeks.”

Revere added, “This tells us a lot about what Kim is prepared to do to receive key military and space technologies. It remains to be seen whether Moscow is prepared to provide all the technologies and support Kim wants. If it does not, it will leave the North Korean ruler in a very difficult position.”

South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell held talks Monday in Seoul and condemned North Korea’s troop deployment and possible military technology transfers Russia could make in return.

North Korea launched a Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile Thursday in demonstration of what it described as the “world’s most powerful strategic deterrent.”

In addition to technologies Kim might want to further advance Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs, North Korea will receive about $200 million from Moscow for its troop deployment, according to an estimate from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service.

“North Korea is not necessarily wanting to back away from the relationship at the moment because it’s given a lifeline as well as a hedge partner against China,” said Samuel Ramani, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

Kim is “willing to commit almost anything that Putin is willing to ask him to do at this point,” Ramani said.

Transactional relationship

Whether long term or short term, Dan DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities, said, “Ties are still very much transactional in the sense that Kim expects Russian President Vladimir Putin to compensate him in some way, shape or form.”

However, DePetris said, “it’s unlikely North Korea will be comfortable putting all its chips in Russia’s basket,” as “betting on Russia over the long term would mean handcuffing North Korea to a single power, limiting the flexibility North Korean officials seek to maintain and giving Russia the ability to blackmail North Korea in the future.”

North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui said Friday, when she met in Moscow with her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, that Pyongyang would fully back Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine until victory.

Choe also said Kim had already “instructed” North Korean officials to provide support for the Russian army “without regard to anyone” when Russia launched what she described as “the special military operation” against Ukraine in 2022.

In return, Lavrov reaffirmed Moscow’s “full support for North Korea’s measures aimed at countering the aggressive policies of the U.S. and its partners” and its commitment to implement the mutual defense treaty.

“We’ve long thought of North Korea as a rogue state, but the tight cooperation between Putin and Kim Jong Un now makes Russia look like a rogue state, too,” said Stephen Sestanovich, senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations who served as U.S. ambassador-at-large for the former Soviet Union from 1997 to 2001.
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New York — Russia refused to confirm its plans for North Korean troops it reportedly plans to deploy in its fight against Ukraine, during a confrontation with the United States Monday at the U.N. Security Council.

“I heard the statement [of the Russian envoy], as did others in this room, but the one question still remains that that statement does not address, and that is whether there are DPRK troops on the ground in Russia,” U.S. Deputy U.N. Ambassador Robert Wood told council members, using the abbreviation for North Korea’s formal name.

“And my question still stands, and I hope that the Russian Federation will answer that simple question,” he said.

Wood was referring to intelligence indicating that an estimated 10,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia for training and deployment to fight alongside the Kremlin’s troops in Ukraine, with some of the North Koreans believed to be heading to Ukraine in the coming days. 

“We’re not in a court here, and the question of the United States, in the spirit of an interrogation, is not something I intend to answer,” said Russian Deputy Ambassador Anna Evstigneeva.

U.S. officials estimate that more than a half-million Russian troops have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale illegal invasion on February 24, 2022. Russia, they say, is now turning to pariah state North Korea to bolster its forces.

Ambassador Wood said the Russians have trained the North Koreans in artillery and drone operations, and basic infantry operations.

“The nature of the training Russia is providing to these forces, to include trench clearing, indicates Russia intends to use these forces in front line operations,” he said.

South Korea’s envoy said Pyongyang is acting in a “more desperate and dangerous” way recently, including the blowing up of rail and road links between the two neighbors.

“And now the desperate DPRK is demanding more sacrifices from its own people by dispatching troops to Russia,” said Ambassador JoonKook Hwang.

William Pomeranz, a senior scholar at the Kennan Institute, told VOA Monday that it is unclear how experienced and professional the North Korean troops are.

“And we don’t know how they will react when faced in combat positions. They have not been basically in a war for a long time,” he said. “So, whether the North Koreans have the ability and the equipment to maintain, to keep in the battlefield, is an open question.”

Western nations have questioned what the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will get in return from Moscow for its troops. There are concerns it could include advanced military technology, possibly for its illicit nuclear and ballistic missile programs, in addition to economic or other support.

“North Korea could benefit politically or diplomatically,” Naoko Aoki, a political scientist at RAND Corporation told VOA. “And this is a little bit more vague than the other more tangible support, but it is nevertheless important, because Russia, as it has been doing, can shield North Korea in the U.N. Security Council so that North Korea is not faced with further sanctions for its nuclear and missile development, for example, and also basically help [it] over the long run.” 

She said that would support the Kim regime’s goal of remaining in power and increasing its influence on the Korean Peninsula.

On March 28, Moscow took one such step to shield Pyongyang, using its Security Council veto to shut down the panel that monitors implementation of the council’s sanctions on North Korea — sanctions that Russia previously voted for.

Ballistic missile launch

The Security Council met Monday to discuss Pyongyang’s October 30 missile launch of a solid fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

“The latest ICBM is estimated to have landed in the waters near Japan, around only 200 kilometers from the island of Hokkaido,” Japan’s ambassador, Yamazaki Kazuyuki told the council. “This ICBM launch is more threatening than ever, as it reached a height of over 7,000 kilometers and a flight time of about 86 minutes — the highest and longest length trajectory of any missile that North Korea has launched to date.”

He said its estimated range capability of 15,000 kilometers covers three quarters of the planet, making it the gravest threat yet from North Korea.

North Korea’s ambassador dismissed the council’s meeting as “unlawful” and interference in its domestic affairs.

“Like all strategic weapons tests we have conducted so far, the test launching of our ICBM Hwasong-19 this time, is a part of the exercise of the just and legitimate right to self-defense to reliably safeguard security of our state as well peace of the region involved,” said Ambassador Kim Song.

Russia sides with North Korea

“The aim of convening a meeting is the same every time, to make yet another step towards demonizing the DPRK,” said Ambassador Evstigneeva. She blamed the United States for ratcheting up tension on the peninsula because of its recent military exercises with South Korea.

South Korea’s ambassador questioned the timing of the latest launch and strongly condemned it. 

“Its intention could be to distract the world’s attention from its troops in Russia, demonstrate themselves as larger than life, or gain diplomatic leverage amid the U.S. presidential election,” said Ambassador Hwang.

“Regardless of the intention, it was clearly an attempt to advance its missile technology, which makes the launch another flagrant violation of multiple Security Council resolutions,” he said. 

VOA’s Kim Lewis contributed reporting for this story. 
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BANGKOK — The independence of central banks is being challenged and they have come under more pressure lately than at any time in the past decade, the Bank of Thailand chief said, according to a speech transcript released on Monday.

“Central bank independence in many countries, including Thailand, is being challenged despite having done a reasonable job over past decades,” Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said in remarks made at the Bank of International Settlements annual conference in Switzerland, an undated transcript of which the Bank of Thailand released on Monday.

“If we allow central bank independence to be eroded, we will not be able to deliver on our core mandates,” the governor said.

The conference took place on June 28, according to the Bank of International Settlements website, which on Oct. 30 published a paper with transcripts of remarks made at the event by several central bank governors, including Sethaput.

The Bank of Thailand later on Monday removed the transcript from its site. It did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The comments were delivered at a time when the Bank of Thailand had clashed with Thailand’s government over monetary policy, with the central bank until last month coming under near-daily pressure to cut interest rates to help spur growth.

The Bank of Thailand unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate to 2.25% in October, but has since stressed that it was not embarking on an easing cycle and said the move was a “recalibration” and not a caving to political pressure.

Former Bank of Thailand governors last week expressed their concern that a candidate for the role of central bank board chairman had “close political ties,” widely seen as referring to the government’s nominee, a critic of the current governor.

The Thai government has maintained it respects the Bank of Thailand’s independence, but wants it to do more to help it revive the economy, growth of which has been tepid.

The Bank of Thailand on Monday said the decision on a candidate had been delayed until next week, the second time it has been postponed. The finance minister said the role had limited authority and the delay would not impact the central bank’s work.

In the remarks at the conference in Switzerland in June, Sethaput also said unconventional policies such as expanding balance sheets and pervasive crisis measures had expanded central banks’ footprints in private markets and raised expectations on what a central bank can achieve.

“It results in not just moving the goalpost but also adding more goalposts. As expectations increase, it becomes harder to ring-fence our reputation, credibility and the case for central bank independence,” he said.
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