The assault on Tripoli launched April 4 by Libya’s would-be strongman Khalifa Haftar, a Gadhafi-era general, and his self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) appeared Friday to be flagging, with his forces withdrawing from some of the capital’s southern suburbs amid heavy clashes.

Leaders of the country’s beleaguered, internationally recognized government are dismissing a behind-the-scenes effort by the U.N. special envoy, Ghassan Salame, for a cease-fire, suggesting they are more confident now of retaining their hold on the Libyan capital. 

​”It felt like thunder was going to split my house,” Libyan-American Holima El Haj, a mother of two, told VOA by phone. “I was crying, and I don’t normally do that.”

Muhanad Younis, the spokesman for the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), told reporters there’s no question of a cease-fire. He said Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj was determined to thwart the assault on the capital led by Haftar, who’s allied with a rival government in the east of the North African country. 

There will be “no negotiations or dialogue until after defeating the aggressors,” al-Serraj said.

Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, told reporters in New York that there’s “grave concern” about “the indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas in Tripoli” and urged all parties to protect civilians. According to the International Organization for Migration, more than 39,000 people have been displaced by the clashes.

Much of the fighting now, according to government military officials who discussed the flow and ebb of the battles, has been focusing on the suburb of Ain Zara in southern Tripoli. There have also been reports of fierce fighting around Wadi Rabea and Tripoli International Airport.

GNA officials say Tripoli forces have been gaining ground and threaten to cut off LNA supply lines running from Gharian, a town 80 kilometers (50 miles) south of Tripoli, which is serving as the LNA’s forward headquarters for the assault on Tripoli.

“We won’t agree to a cease-fire,” Abdulraham El Mansouri, an adviser to the GNA, told VOA. “If we agree to one, Haftar will only use the time to regroup his forces, and we won’t allow that.” 

He said the forces loyal to the GNA, which are made up mainly of an assortment of fighters drawn from the powerful and battle-hardened militias of Tripoli and Misrata, won’t stop fighting during the holy month of Ramadan, due to start on the evening May 5. “We won’t stop until we have driven Haftar all the way back to Benghazi and Tobruk, and we’ll finish him there.”

Some independent analysts agree that Tripoli now may be beyond Haftar. His forces are “dangerously stretched,” said Federica Saini Fasanotti, an analyst with the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank. She said LNA soldiers captured by forces loyal to the Tripoli government “are very young and clearly not up to the task.” 

Many of the fighters the LNA is battling are veterans of the 2011 uprising against Col. Moammar Gadhafi. Haftar’s forces are also drawn from less cohesive groups, including mercenaries from Chad and Sudan. The edge Haftar does have, say analysts, is in the backing he’s receiving from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates in terms of supplies, which appear to include armed drones.

“Haftar definitely overestimated his strength and underestimated his adversary,” said Karim Mezran, an analyst with the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East. His offensive prompted the country’s most powerful western militias from Tripoli, Misrata and Zintan — frequently at odds with each other in the past — to join forces in support of al-Serraj, he said.

But Mezran and other analysts say the GNA forces are probably incapable of capturing the LNA loyalist cities of Benghazi and Tobruk if Haftar is forced to withdraw from around Tripoli. 

“The United States, so far, along with Italy and Britain, has had a very straightforward position: There is no military solution possible in Libya, only a U.N.-backed negotiations process,” said Mezran.

Last week, it emerged that U.S. President Donald Trump might be considering reversing Washington’s position. In a phone call with Haftar, the U.S. leader praised the general for his fight against the Islamic State and other jihadists. Bloomberg News reported Trump told Haftar he supported an attack on Tripoli. 

But State Department officials told VOA that U.S. policy remains the same: Only a negotiated settlement can end conflict in Libya. 

The U.N.’s special envoy to Libya, Salame, told reporters in Rome on Friday that he was exploring ways “to convince the parties to the conflict to stop fighting and resume the political process.”

He added: “The U.N. continues its role in Libya. We have been providing assistance to thousands of families affected by the fighting to be relocated to safer areas. … The mission continues efforts to bring together the various parties in hope that they can recognize, before Ramadan, that it is better to stick to the political process than further fighting where there is no winner while the country is losing.”
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Air strikes by Syrian regime ally Russia killed 10 civilians in the jihadist-held northwestern region of Idlib on Friday, a monitor said, as unsuccessful peace talks ended in Kazakhstan.

The raids killed three civilians including a boy on the outskirts of the town of Kafranbel, and seven including a girl in the town of Tal Hawash, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Syria’s civil war has killed more than 370,000 people since it started in 2011, and endless rounds of negotiations have failed to stem the bloodshed.

The Damascus regime has won back large parts of the country from rebels and jihadists since Russia intervened in the war in 2015.

But several key areas remain beyond government reach, including Idlib, which is controlled by a former al-Qaeda affiliate.

Russia and rebel-backer Turkey in September inked a buffer zone deal to prevent a massive regime offensive on Idlib and nearby regions, close to the Turkish border.

But the area, currently home to some three million people, has come under increasing bombardment since jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took full control of it in January.

The latest air raids came as two days of talks on ending the war in Syria — sponsored by Russia, fellow regime ally Iran, and rebel backer Turkey — concluded in Kazakhstan.

In a statement released after the meeting, the three countries expressed concern about HTS extending its influence in Idlib.

They stressed their “determination to continue cooperation in order to ultimately eliminate” HTS and the Islamic State group, the statement said.

US-backed forces expelled IS from the last patch of their 2014 “caliphate” last month, but the jihadists still have a presence in the Syrian desert and sleeper cells elsewhere.

‘200 dead since February’

The United Nations has expressed worry over the new wave of bombardment on the Idlib region, around which a buffer zone was never fully implemented.

“I am alarmed by the recent escalation of violence and hostilities in and around the demilitarised zone in north-western Syria,” the UN regional coordinator for Syria, Panos Moumtzis, said Thursday.

“Since February, over 200 civilians have reportedly been killed in Idlib,” he said.

The fighting had also resulted in 120,000 people fleeing to areas closer to the Turkey border, he added.

Syria’s war has displaced millions since it began with the repression of anti-government protests in 2011.

The talks in Kazakhstan Friday ended without notable progress on forming a committee to draw up a post-war constitution for the country.

The meeting had broached the issue with UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, but further talks in Geneva would be needed, the joint statement said.

The parties were committed to “the establishment and the convening of the Constitutional Committee at the earliest in Geneva, holding the next round of consultations in Geneva” and supporting UN efforts, it read.

But talks in Kazakhstan would also continue, with Syria’s neighbours Iraq and Lebanon to be invited to the next round of talks in July.

Jordan and the United States have observed the talks in the past.

After years of failed UN-led negotiations to end the war, Russia has taken a lead role in diplomatic efforts through the so-called Astana process.

The capital of Kazakhstan was called Astana until last month, when it was renamed Nur-Sultan after the country’s outgoing president.
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