IMF: US Sanctions Cutting Iranian Growth, Boosting Inflation

The International Monetary Fund is forecasting Iran’s economy to shrink by 6% this year as it faces pressure from U.S. sanctions.

In a report released Monday, the IMF said its estimates for Iran, which include the potential for inflation to top 40%, predate a U.S. decision to end waivers that have allowed some Iranian oil buyers to continue making their purchases despite new sanctions that went into effect last year.

The Trump administration is due to formally end the waivers on Thursday for some of Iran’s top crude purchasers, including China, India, Japan, Turkey and South Korea.

The United States says it wants to deprive Iran of $50 billion in annual oil revenues to pressure it to end its nuclear and missile programs. The White House says it is working with top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to ensure an adequate world oil supply.

Turkey and China have attacked the U.S. action, but it is not clear whether they will continue to buy Iranian oil.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said an interview broadcast on the U.S. cable show Fox News Sunday accused the United States of trying to “bring Iran to its knees” and overthrow its government by seeking to thwart its international oil trade.

​He said U.S. officials are “wrong in their analysis. They are wrong in their hope and illusions.”

Zarif said the fact that Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 international agreement to curtail Iran’s nuclear program “would not put the U.S. in the good list of law-abiding nations.” Iran state media reported that Zarif told Iranian reporters in New York that Tehran’s withdrawal from the pact is one of “many options” it is considering in the wake of the U.S. end to the waivers on sanctions for countries buying oil from Iran.

Zarif said a team of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton, and leaders in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is trying to push U.S. President Donald Trump “into a confrontation he doesn’t want.”

“They have tried to bring the U.S. into a war,” Zarif said, with the goal, “at least,” of Iranian regime change.

Bolton, appearing on the same Fox News program, said the U.S. goal is not regime change, but a change in behavior, specifically an end to Iran’s nuclear weapons program and ballistic missile testing.

“The Iranian people deserve a better government,” Bolton said.

He called Zarif’s accusations “completely ridiculous, an effort to sow disinformation.”

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Former US Sen. Richard Lugar, Foreign Policy Expert, Dies

Former longtime U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, a foreign policy expert who helped spur the dismantling and securing of thousands of nuclear weapons in the former Soviet states, has died. He was 87.

The Lugar Center issued a statement saying Lugar died early Sunday at the Inova Fairfax Heart and Vascular Institute in Virginia. 

Lugar was a Rhodes Scholar who was first elected to the Senate in 1976, after eight years as Indianapolis mayor.

He was a generally loyal conservative but lost his bid for a seventh Senate term in the 2012 GOP primary after attacks over his reputation for cooperation with Democrats and friendliness with President Barack Obama.

Lugar gained little traction with a 1996 run for president, but he focused on the threat of terrorism years ahead of the Sept. 11 attacks.

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Cyclone Kenneth Continues To Drench Mozambique

Rain-soaked Mozambique is bracing for still more rain from Cyclone Kenneth. 

“It’s been raining hard since Sunday morning,” said Deborah Nguyen, spokeswoman for the U.N. World Food Program. “We are very worried because, according to the forecasts, heavy rain is expected for the next four days.”

The rain is causing floods and landslides already. More rain will add more misery, cutting off roads that aid groups are using to transport urgently needed supplies, including food and medicine. 

Nearly 200,000 people are in danger in the northern city of Pemba.

Mozambique’s National Institute of Disaster Management said Sunday more than 23,000 people have no shelter and nearly 35,000 homes have been partly or completely destroyed. 

Prime Minister Carlos Do Rosario said the death toll from Kenneth stands at five. Before reaching Mozambique, Kenneth swept over the island nation of Comoros, killing three people.

On Sunday, the U.N. released $13 million to “provide lifesaving food, shelter, health, water and sanitation assistance to people affected by Tropical Cyclone Kenneth.”

Kenneth is the second cyclone to hit the impoverished southern African country in six weeks.

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Wounded Rabbi Says Nothing Will Take Down the Jewish People

Anguish, pain and heartache poured out of Rabbi Yisroel Goldstein on Sunday as he recounted the terrorist shooting at his Chabad of Poway synagogue near San Diego that killed a woman and left him and two others wounded. 

“I see a sight that is indescribable,” the rabbi said, describing how a gunman pointed a rifle straight at him. 

“He wore sunglasses. I couldn’t see his eyes, I couldn’t see his soul,” Goldstein said, describing the alleged shooter.

Goldstein said he held up his hands as the suspect opened fire, wounding him and blowing off his right index finger.

But the rabbi said most of his pain came from seeing a beloved charter member of his shul, 60-year-old Lori Kaye, lying dead on the floor as her husband, a doctor, frantically tried to resuscitate her. 

He sobbed as he described Kaye as a person of “unconditional love” who was always there for those in need, regardless of their race or religion.

​Others wounded were an 8-year-old girl and her uncle — an Israeli war veteran who the rabbi said took a bullet trying to protect children. Both have been released from the hospital. 

Goldstein said President Donald Trump telephoned him Sunday, speaking for about 15 minutes sharing his condolences. 

A White House statement about the call said Trump “expressed his love for the Jewish people and the entire community of Poway.”

“He was so comforting,” Goldstein said.

The rabbi appealed to all Jews to go to their synagogues this Friday night, the start of the Jewish Sabbath, to show solidarity and that “terrorism will never prevail.”

“We are a Jewish nation that will stand tall. We will not let anyone or anything take us down. We need to battle darkness with light,” he said.

U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said there is “no doubt” Saturday’s synagogue shooting in San Diego is a hate crime, but that the alleged gunman likely acted alone.

“It was an atrocious and utterly inexcusable action,” Bolton told Fox News Sunday.

“Our entire nation mourns the loss of life, prays for the wounded, and stands in solidarity with the Jewish community,” Trump said at a political rally in Wisconsin hours after the shooting. “We forcefully condemn the evils of anti-Semitism and hate, which must be defeated.”

San Diego County police say 19-year-old John Earnest allegedly entered the Chabad of Poway synagogue Saturday and opened fire with an AR-style assault weapon.

Rabbi Goldstein said the suspect’s gun “miraculously” jammed and he was then confronted by off-duty U.S. Border Patrol agent Jonathan Morales, who Goldstein said “recently discovered his Jewish roots.”

Morales fired at the suspect as he fled, missing him but striking his car. 

“Sincerest thank you to our great border patrol agent who stopped the shooter at the Synagogue in Poway, California. He may have been off duty but his talents for law enforcement weren’t!” Trump tweeted.

Earnest called 911 emergency services himself to report the shooting and to tell police where he could be found. He surrendered peacefully with the apparent weapon sitting in the car. 

Police say if the weapon had not misfired, the suspect might have killed many more. They also say he tried to livestream the shooting on social media, but that his equipment failed.

Investigators also say Earnest apparently wrote an anti-Semitic manifesto on social media sometime before the shooting, in which he praised those accused of the deadly New Zealand mosque attacks and October’s massacre at a Pittsburgh synagogue. 

Rabbi Goldstein said his missing index finger will always be a reminder of how vulnerable people are to terrorism.

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Critics Say Russia’s Adoption Law Punishes Orphans

It has been more than six years since the Russian government passed the Dima Yakovlev Law, banning U.S. citizens from adopting Russian children. The controversial measure was informally named after a Russian orphan who died of heat stroke after being left in a parked car by his American adoptive father. Critics say the law was a mere political response to U.S. sanctions on Russia. Adoptive parents and experts talked to VOA’s Igor Tsikhanenka in Moscow about how the law has changed their lives.

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Sudan Protest Artists Paint 3-Kilometer Banner Against Oppression

As talks between Sudan’s protesters and the military make slow progress on the issue of civilian rule, one group is creating a colorful push to the process. A group of protester-artists is painting a three kilometer long banner that tells the story Sudan’s ongoing revolution. Ruud Elmendorp reports from Khartoum.

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Socialists Score Spanish Election Victory

Spain’s governing Socialist party won the most votes in elections held Sunday but fell short of an overall majority in a highly fragmented outcome in which the conservative vote split three ways. Surging far right and centrist groups seriously undercut what was until now the main opposition, the Popular Party.

“The Socialist party has won the elections. The future has won and the past has lost,” Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez told supporters outside his party headquarters in Madrid. He hinted at a possible governing arrangement with center-right parties, which have been bitter rivals leading up to the election.

With 99% of votes counted, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) is headed to a victory with an estimated 28% of the popular vote, giving it an estimated 123 seats in the 350-seat parliament, which is 40 more than it had. But the Popular Party (PP), which received less than 17% of votes, is losing almost half its seats, dropping from 137 to 65.

The centrist Ciudadanos party, which is barely 1 percentage point behind the Popular Party, has increased its representation to 57 seats. The far right Vox Party, however, fared worse than expected, receiving about 10% of the votes, giving it about 25 seats — its first in parliament.​

The far left Unidos Podemos also did poorly, with its projected parliamentary representation dropping, from 70 to 42.

“The mood of the country indicates a swing towards the center” political analyst Ramon Peralta, a law professor at the Complutense University of Madrid. “The three-way division of the right clearly hurt PP, with many of its votes going to Vox.”

Peralta projects a possible coalition between PSOE and Ciudadanos, despite bitter rhetoric exchanged between their leaders during the campaign, in which Ciudadanos candidate Albert Rivera called the prime minister a traitor for negotiating with Catalan separatists and vowed not to support a new mandate for the socialists.

The results, however, give no hope for a conservative dream coalition between PP, Ciudadanos and Vox, which had been openly discussed by the leaders of the three parties.

The numbers also show that Prime Minister Sanchez could continue with his current governing arrangement, counting on the parliamentary support of Podemos, Catalan secessionists and Basque nationalists, which also have increased their representation in the national parliament.

VOX leader Santiago Abascal defiantly told supporters outside his party headquarters in Madrid, “Spain may be worse off after the elections, but Vox will be in the parliament for the first time, and there will be 24 deputies that fight to defend Spain’s unity and basic values.”

PP had little to celebrate. “Things have gone very badly,” PP spokesman and congressional candidate Javier Fernandez Lasquetty told VOA.

“We are paying a very high price for a fragmented right,” he said.

Ciudadanos leader Rivera, whose party almost overtook PP, told supporters his centrist option “keeps growing.” However, he discounted any possible deal with Sanchez.

Analysts say Sanchez is more likely to look to his right for parliamentary support, as the far left Podemos party no longer seems a viable partner after losing half its seats.

The Catalan leftist separatist party ERC, led by secessionist President Quim Torra, gained support over more-moderate parties in Catalonia, making any parliamentary coalition with Spain’s central government difficult to sustain.

The Basque Nationalist Party and the radical separatist Bildu, composed of some former supporters of the terror group ETA, also increased their representation in parliament, each gaining a seat.

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Twitter Terror: Arrests Prompt Concern Over Online Extremism

A few months after he turned 17 — and more than two years before he was arrested — Vincent Vetromile recast himself as an online revolutionary.

Offline, in this suburb of Rochester, New York, Vetromile was finishing requirements for promotion to Eagle Scout in a troop that met at a local church. He enrolled at Monroe Community College, taking classes to become a heating and air conditioning technician. On weekends, he spent hours in the driveway with his father, a Navy veteran, working on cars.

On social media, though, the teenager spoke in world-worn tones about the need to “reclaim our nation at any cost.” Eventually he subbed out the grinning selfie in his Twitter profile, replacing it with the image of a colonial militiaman shouldering an AR-15 rifle. And he traded his name for a handle: “Standing on the Edge.”

That edge became apparent in Vetromile’s posts, including many interactions over the last two years with accounts that praised the Confederacy, warned of looming gun confiscation and declared Muslims to be a threat.

In 2016, he sent the first of more than 70 replies to tweets from a fiery account with 140,000 followers, run by a man billing himself as Donald Trump’s biggest Canadian supporter. The final exchange came late last year.

“Islamic Take Over Has Begun: Muslim No-Go Zones Are Springing Up Across America. Lock and load America!” the Canadian tweeted on December 12, with a video and a map highlighting nine states with Muslim enclaves.

“The places listed are too vague,” Vetromile replied. “If there were specific locations like ‘north of X street in the town of Y, in the state of Z’ we could go there and do something about it.”

Weeks later, police arrested Vetromile and three friends, charging them with plotting to attack a Muslim settlement in rural New York. And with extremism on the rise across the U.S., this town of neatly kept Cape Cods confronted difficult questions about ideology and young people — and technology’s role in bringing them together.

The reality of the plot Vetromile and his friends are charged with hatching is, in some ways, both less and more than what was feared when they were arrested in January.

Prosecutors say there is no indication that the four — Vetromile, 19; Brian Colaneri, 20; Andrew Crysel, 18; and a 16-year-old The Associated Press isn’t naming because of his age — had set an imminent or specific date for an attack. Reports they had an arsenal of 23 guns are misleading; the weapons belonged to parents or other relatives.

Prosecutors allege the four discussed using those guns, along with explosive devices investigators say were made by the 16-year-old, in an attack on the community of Islamberg.

Residents of the settlement in Delaware County, New York — mostly African-American Muslims who relocated from Brooklyn in the 1980s — have been harassed for years by right-wing activists who have called it a terrorist training camp. A Tennessee man, Robert Doggart , was convicted in 2017 of plotting to burn down Islamberg’s mosque and other buildings.

But there are few clues so far to explain how four with little experience beyond their high school years might have come up with the idea to attack the community. All have pleaded not guilty, and several defense attorneys, back in court Friday, are arguing there was no plan to actually carry out any attack, chalking it up to talk among buddies. Lawyers for the four did not return calls, and parents or other relatives declined interviews.

“I don’t know where the exposure came from, if they were exposed to it from other kids at school, through social media,” said Matthew Schwartz, the Monroe County assistant district attorney prosecuting the case. “I have no idea if their parents subscribe to any of these ideologies.”

Well beyond upstate New York, the spread of extremist ideology online has sparked growing concern. Google and Facebook executives went before the House Judiciary Committee this month to answer questions about their platforms’ role in feeding hate crime and white nationalism. Twitter announced new rules last fall prohibiting the use of “dehumanizing language” that risks “normalizing serious violence.”

But experts said the problem goes beyond language, pointing to algorithms used by search engines and social media platforms to prioritize content and spotlight likeminded accounts.

“Once you indicate an inclination, the machine learns,” said Jessie Daniels, a professor of sociology at New York’s Hunter College who studies the online contagion of alt-right ideology. “That’s exactly what’s happening on all these platforms … and it just sends some people down a terrible rabbit hole.”

She and others point to Dylann Roof, who in 2015 murdered nine worshippers at a historic black church in Charleston, South Carolina. In writings found afterward, Roof recalled how his interest in the shooting of black teenager Trayvon Martin had prompted a Google search for the term “black on white crime.” The first site the search engine pointed him to was run by a racist group promoting the idea that such crime is common, and as he learned more, Roof wrote, that eventually drove his decision to attack the congregation.

In the Rochester-area case, electronic messages between two of those arrested, seen by the AP, along with papers filed in the case suggest doubts divided the group.

“I honestly see him being a terrorist,” one of those arrested, Crysel, told his friend Colaneri in an exchange last December on Discord, a messaging platform popular with gamers that has also gained notoriety for its embrace by some followers of the alt-right.

“He also has a very odd obsession with pipe bombs,” Colaneri replied. “Like it’s borderline creepy.”

It is not clear from the message fragment seen which of the others they were referencing. What is clear, though, is the long thread of frustration in Vetromile’s online posts — and the way those posts link him to an enduring conspiracy theory.

A few years ago, Vetromile’s posts on Twitter and Instagram touched on subjects like video games and English class.

He made the honor roll as an 11th-grader but sometime thereafter was suspended and never returned, according to former classmates and others. The school district, citing federal law on student records, declined to provide details.

Ron Gerth, who lives across the street from the family, recalled Vetromile as a boy roaming the neighborhood with a friend, pitching residents on a leaf-raking service: “Just a normal, everyday kid wanting to make some money, and he figured a way to do it.” More recently, Gerth said, Vetromile seemed shy and withdrawn, never uttering more than a word or two if greeted on the street.

Vetromile and suspect Andrew Crysel earned the rank of Eagle in Boy Scout Troop 240, where the 16-year-old was also a member. None ever warranted concern, said Steve Tyler, an adult leader.

“Every kid’s going to have their own sort of geekiness,” Tyler said, “but nothing that would ever be considered a trigger or a warning sign that would make us feel unsafe.”

Crysel and the fourth suspect, Colaneri, have been diagnosed with Asperger’s syndrome, a milder form of autism, their families have said. Friends described Colaneri as socially awkward and largely disinterested in politics. “He asked, if we’re going to build a wall around the Gulf of Mexico, how are people going to go to the beach?” said Rachael Lee, the aunt of Colaneri’s girlfriend.

Vetromile attended community college with Colaneri before dropping out in 2017. By then, he was fully engaged in online conversations about immigrants living in the U.S. illegally, gun rights and Trump. Over time, his statements became increasingly militant.

“We need a revolution now!” he tweeted in January, replying to a thread warning of a coming “war” over gun ownership.

Vetromile directed some of his strongest statements at Muslims. Tweets from the Canadian account, belonging to one Mike Allen, seemed to push that button.

In July 2017, Allen tweeted “Somali Muslims take over Tennessee town and force absolute HELL on terrified Christians.” Vetromile replied: ”@realDonaldTrump please do something about this!”

A few months later, Allen tweeted: “Czech politicians vote to let citizens carry guns, shoot Muslim terrorists on sight.” Vetromile’s response: “We need this here!”

Allen’s posts netted hundreds of replies a day, and there’s no sign he read Vetromile’s responses. But others did, including the young man’s reply to the December post about Muslim “no-go zones.”

That tweet included a video interview with Martin Mawyer, whose Christian Action Network made a 2009 documentary alleging that Islamberg and other settlements were terrorist training camps. Mawyer linked the settlements, which follow the teachings of a controversial Pakistani cleric, to a group called Jamaat al-Fuqra that drew scrutiny from law enforcement in the 1980s and 1990s. In 1993, Colorado prosecutors won convictions of four al-Fuqra members in a racketeering case that included charges of fraud, arson and murder.

Police and analysts have repeatedly said Islamberg does not threaten violence. Nevertheless, the allegations of Mawyer’s group continue to circulate widely online and in conservative media.

Replying to questions by email, Mawyer said his organization has used only legal means to try to shut down the operator of the settlements.

“Vigilante violence is always the wrong way to solve social or personal problems,” he said. “Christian Action Network had no role, whatsoever, in inciting any plots.”

Online, though, Vetromile reacted with consternation to the video of Mawyer: “But this video just says ‘upstate NY and California’ and that’s too big of an area to search for terrorists,” he wrote.

Other followers replied with suggestions. “Doesn’t the video state Red House, Virginia as the place?” one asked. Virginia was too far, Vetromile replied, particularly since the map with the tweet showed an enclave in his own state.

When another follower offered a suggestion, Vetromile signed off: “Eh worth a look. Thanks.”

The exchange ended without a word from the Canadian account, whose tweet started it.

Three months before the December exchange on Twitter, the four suspects started using a Discord channel dubbed ”#leaders-only” to discuss weapons and how they would use them in an attack, prosecutors allege. Vetromile set up the channel, one of the defense attorneys contends, but prosecutors say they don’t consider any one of the four a leader.

In November, the conversation expanded to a second channel: ”#militia-soldiers-wanted.”

At some point last fall the 16-year-old made a grenade — “on a whim to satisfy his own curiosity,” his lawyer said in a court filing that claims the teen never told the other suspects. That filing also contends the boy told Vetromile that forming a militia was “stupid.”

But other court records contradict those assertions. Another teen, who is not among the accused, told prosecutors that the 16-year-old showed him what looked like a pipe bomb last fall and then said that Vetromile had asked for prototypes. “Let me show you what Vinnie gave me,” the young suspect allegedly said during another conversation, before leaving the room and returning with black explosive powder.

In January, the 16-year-old was in the school cafeteria when he showed a photo to a classmate of one of his fellow suspects, wearing some kind of tactical vest. He made a comment like, “He looks like the next school shooter, doesn’t he?” according to Greece Police Chief Patrick Phelan. The other student reported the incident, and questioning by police led to the arrests and charges of conspiracy to commit terrorism.

The allegations have jarred a region where political differences are the norm. Rochester, roughly half white and half black and other minorities, votes heavily Democratic. Neighboring Greece, which is 87 percent white, leans conservative. Town officials went to the Supreme Court to win a 2014 ruling allowing them to start public meetings with a chaplain’s prayer.

The arrests dismayed Bob Lonsberry, a conservative talk radio host in Rochester, who said he checked Twitter to confirm Vetromile didn’t follow his feed. But looking at the accounts Vetromile did follow convinced him that politics on social media had crossed a dangerous line.

“The people up here, even the hillbillies like me, we would go down with our guns and stand outside the front gate of Islamberg to protect them,” Lonsberry said. “It’s an aberration. But … aberrations, like a cancer, pop up for a reason.”


Online, it can be hard to know what is true and who is real. Mike Allen, though, is no bot.

“He seems addicted to getting followers,” said Allen’s adult son, Chris, when told about the arrest of one of the thousands attuned to his father’s Twitter feed. Allen himself called back a few days later, leaving a brief message with no return number.

But a few weeks ago, Allen welcomed in a reporter who knocked on the door of his home, located less than an hour from the Peace Bridge linking upstate New York to Ontario, Canada.

“I really don’t believe in regulation of the free marketplace of ideas,” said Allen, a retired real estate executive, explaining his approach to social media. “If somebody wants to put bulls— on Facebook or Twitter, it’s no worse than me selling a bad hamburger, you know what I mean? Buyer beware.”

Sinking back in a white leather armchair, Allen, 69, talked about his longtime passion for politics. After a liver transplant stole much of his stamina a few years ago, he filled downtime by tweeting about subjects like interest rates.

When Trump announced his candidacy for president in 2015, in a speech memorable for labeling many Mexican immigrants as criminals, Allen said he was determined to help get the billionaire elected. He began posting voraciously, usually finding material on conservative blogs and Facebook feeds and crafting posts to stir reaction.

Soon his account was gaining up to 4,000 followers a week.

Allen said he had hoped to monetize his feed somehow. But suspicions that Twitter “shadow-banning” was capping gains in followers made him consider closing the account. That was before he was shown some of his tweets and the replies they drew from Vetromile — and told the 19-year-old was among the suspects charged with plotting to attack Islamberg.

“And they got caught? Good,” Allen said. “We’re not supposed to go around shooting people we don’t like. That’s why we have video games.”

Allen’s own likes and dislikes are complicated. He said he strongly opposes taking in refugees for humanitarian reasons, arguing only immigrants with needed skills be admitted. He also recounted befriending a Muslim engineer in Pakistan through a physics blog and urging him to move to Canada.

Shown one of his tweets from last year — claiming Czech officials had urged people to shoot Muslims — Allen shook his head.

“That’s not a good tweet,” he said quietly. “It’s inciting.”

Allen said he rarely read replies to his posts — and never noticed Vetromile’s.

“If I’d have seen anybody talking violence, I would have banned them,” he said.

He turned to his wife, Kim, preparing dinner across the kitchen counter. Maybe he should stop tweeting, he told her. But couldn’t he continue until Trump was reelected?

“We have a saying, ‘Oh, it must be true, I read it on the internet,’” Allen said, before showing his visitor out. “The internet is phony. It’s not there. Only kids live in it and old guys, you know what I mean? People with time on their hands.”

The next day, Allen shut down his account, and the long narrative he spun all but vanished.

 

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Iran’s Zarif: US Trying to ‘Bring Iran to Its Knees’

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is accusing the United States of trying to “bring Iran to its knees” and overthrow its government by seeking to thwart its international oil trade.

Zarif, in an interview broadcast on the U.S. cable show Fox News Sunday, said a “B team” of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton, and leaders in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is trying to push U.S. President Donald Trump “into a confrontation he doesn’t want.”

“They have tried to bring the U.S. into a war,” Zarif said, with the goal, “at least,” of Iranian regime change.

Bolton, appearing on the same Fox News program, said the U.S. goal is not regime change, but a change in behavior, specifically an end to Iran’s nuclear weapons program and ballistic missile testing.

“The Iranian people deserve a better government,” Bolton said.

He called Zarif’s accusations “completely ridiculous, an effort to sow disinformation.”

The United States recently declared Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps a terrorist organization and says on Thursday it will end waivers of sanctions for all countries buying Iranian crude oil, including China, India, Japan, Turkey and South Korea, which had continued to buy from Tehran since last year when new U.S. sanctions against Iran were imposed.

The United States says it wants to deprive Iran of $50 billion in annual oil revenues to pressure it to end its nuclear and missile programs. The White House says it is working with top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and the UAE to ensure an adequate world oil supply.

But it is uncertain how effective the U.S. end of waivers to the sanctions on countries trading with Iran will prove to be. Turkey and China have attacked the U.S. action, but it is not clear whether they will continue to buy Iranian oil.

Zarif said the goal of the sanctions is to “put as much pressure on the Iranian people as possible so they will take action” against the Iranian government. Zarif said U.S. officials are “wrong, their hope and delusion.”

He said the fact that Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 international agreement to curtail Iran’s nuclear program “would not put the U.S. in the good list of law-abiding nations.” Iran state media reported that Zarif told Iranian reporters in New York that Tehran’s withdrawal from the pact is one of “many options” it is considering in the wake of the U.S. end to the waivers on sanctions for countries buying oil from Iran.

Zarif said the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear pact shows the Iranian people that “engagement does not have dividends. They should not trust the signature of the president of the United States,” referring to former President Barack Obama, whose push for the international pact was overturned by Trump.

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5 Killed as Cyclone Kenneth Slams Into Mozambique

Authorities in Mozambique have urged citizens to “seek higher ground” to avoid the flooding and mudslides that are sure to come in the aftermath of Cyclone Kenneth.  

Prime Minister Carlos Do Rosario said the death toll from Kenneth stands at five. Before reaching Mozambique, Kenneth swept over the island nation of Comoros, killing three people. 

Mozambique’s National Institute of Disaster Management said Kenneth has destroyed more than 3,000 houses and displaced more than 18,000 people.

The government said most of the homes on the Mozambican island of Ibo, home to about 6,000 people, were destroyed.

“Ninety-five percent of the homes on Ibo have been destroyed — not only roofs blowing off, but down to the ground,” Kevin Record, an Ibo hotel owner, told CNN. “The situation remains dire.”

The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged the international community to provide support for short-, medium- and long-term needs of affected communities.

“The Secretary-General is deeply saddened at reports of loss of lives and destruction in Mozambique and Comoros as a result of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth, six weeks after Cyclone Idai made landfall in Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe,” Stéphane Dujarric, spokesman for the secretary-general, said in a statement Sunday.

On Sunday, the United Nations released $13 million to “provide lifesaving food, shelter, health, water and sanitation assistance to people affected by Tropical Cyclone Kenneth in Comoros and Mozambique.”

Kenneth is the second cyclone to hit the southern African country within six weeks.

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Israel Frees 2 Syrians after Return of Soldier’s Remains

Israel released two Syrian prisoners on Sunday in what it described as a “goodwill gesture” following the repatriation of the remains of an Israeli soldier who went missing over 35 years ago.

Israel has insisted that the release was not a quid pro quo for the return of Zachary Baumel’s remains earlier this month.

Syrian state TV said the two prisoners, Zeidan Tawil and Khamis al-Ahmad, arrived on the Syrian side of the Quneitra crossing after being released. It showed a brief video of the two men, shortly after they were handed over to Syrian authorities.

State news agency SANA showed a photograph of the two men, one of them waving a victory sign from inside a vehicle that appeared to be an ambulance.

Baumel went missing during the Sultan Yacoub battle between the Israeli army and Syrian forces during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Russian mediators facilitated the return of his remains shortly before this month’s Israeli election.

The Syrian government denied any knowledge of Baumel’s whereabouts and said it was not involved in the repatriation of his remains. Russia is a close ally of the government in the civil war.

Israel’s Kan radio, citing unnamed security sources, said Ahmad was arrested 14 years ago when he tried to infiltrate an Israeli army base. It said Tawil was arrested on drug charges.

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Tech Helping Make Big Impact on Local Government

Local governments often try to solve problems using old technology. A U.S. Senate bill aims to fund small tech teams to help state and municipal governments update and rebuild government systems. Deana Mitchell takes a look at the impact on one program that is serving the needy.

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In Wake of Cyclone Kenneth, Flooding in Mozambique

Flooding began Sunday in parts of northern Mozambique that were hit by Cyclone Kenneth three days ago. The government has urged many people to immediately seek higher ground, with hundreds of thousands of people at risk. 

 

Authorities have said at least five people died after the storm arrived Thursday evening with the force of a Category 4 hurricane, stunning residents of a region where a cyclone had not been recorded in the modern era. Kenneth came six weeks after Cyclone Idai ripped into central Mozambique and killed more than 600 people.

The remnants of Kenneth could dump twice as much rain as Idai did, the U.N. World Program has said. It was the flooding after Idai that caused most of the deaths.

Heavy rain was falling in the main city of Pemba, which had lost power. As much as 250 millimeters (9 inches) of torrential rain, or about a quarter of the average annual rainfall for the region, is forecast over the next few days. 

Pouring in Pemba

Nearly 700,000 people could be at risk in the largely rural region, many left exposed and hungry as waters rise. Some rivers in the region have burst their banks in the past, notably in 2000.

With streets nearly deserted in Pemba, a few braved the pouring rain. One woman held a plastic dish over her head, negotiating a flooded street. 

“I have never seen such rains in my life, this doesn’t happen in Pemba. The storms we sometimes have, but such rains, never,” said a 35-year old resident, Michael Fernando.

Flattened towns

Aerial photos taken on Saturday showed several coastal communities flattened by the storm in Mozambique’s northernmost Cabo Delgado province. “Not a single house is standing anymore,” Saviano Abreu, a spokesman with the U.N. humanitarian agency, told reporters after the aerial assessment.

 

With many houses built of mud, wooden poles and metal roofs destroyed, families have begun wading through rising waters to what they hope are safer areas or huddling under impromptu shelters.

 

This was the first time in recorded history that the southern African nation has been hit by two cyclones in one season, again raising concerns about climate change.

 

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies has reported heavy damage to Cabo Delgado province, with the communities of Macomia, Quissanga and Mocimboa da Praia of highest concern.

 

About 3,500 homes in parts of Cabo Delgado were partially or fully destroyed by the cyclone, with electricity cut, some roads blocked and at least one key bridge collapsed. Some schools and health centers were damaged. 

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In Wake of Cyclone Kenneth, Flooding in Mozambique

Flooding began Sunday in parts of northern Mozambique that were hit by Cyclone Kenneth three days ago. The government has urged many people to immediately seek higher ground, with hundreds of thousands of people at risk. 

 

Authorities have said at least five people died after the storm arrived Thursday evening with the force of a Category 4 hurricane, stunning residents of a region where a cyclone had not been recorded in the modern era. Kenneth came six weeks after Cyclone Idai ripped into central Mozambique and killed more than 600 people.

The remnants of Kenneth could dump twice as much rain as Idai did, the U.N. World Program has said. It was the flooding after Idai that caused most of the deaths.

Heavy rain was falling in the main city of Pemba, which had lost power. As much as 250 millimeters (9 inches) of torrential rain, or about a quarter of the average annual rainfall for the region, is forecast over the next few days. 

Pouring in Pemba

Nearly 700,000 people could be at risk in the largely rural region, many left exposed and hungry as waters rise. Some rivers in the region have burst their banks in the past, notably in 2000.

With streets nearly deserted in Pemba, a few braved the pouring rain. One woman held a plastic dish over her head, negotiating a flooded street. 

“I have never seen such rains in my life, this doesn’t happen in Pemba. The storms we sometimes have, but such rains, never,” said a 35-year old resident, Michael Fernando.

Flattened towns

Aerial photos taken on Saturday showed several coastal communities flattened by the storm in Mozambique’s northernmost Cabo Delgado province. “Not a single house is standing anymore,” Saviano Abreu, a spokesman with the U.N. humanitarian agency, told reporters after the aerial assessment.

 

With many houses built of mud, wooden poles and metal roofs destroyed, families have begun wading through rising waters to what they hope are safer areas or huddling under impromptu shelters.

 

This was the first time in recorded history that the southern African nation has been hit by two cyclones in one season, again raising concerns about climate change.

 

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies has reported heavy damage to Cabo Delgado province, with the communities of Macomia, Quissanga and Mocimboa da Praia of highest concern.

 

About 3,500 homes in parts of Cabo Delgado were partially or fully destroyed by the cyclone, with electricity cut, some roads blocked and at least one key bridge collapsed. Some schools and health centers were damaged. 

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Sources: Sudan Military, Opposition Agree to Joint Council

Sudan’s military rulers and opposition agreed in principle Saturday to the formation of a joint body to lead a transition from 30 years of autocratic rule by Omar al-Bashir, but not on the new council’s makeup, two sources said.

The two sides were holding their first formal discussions as opposition groups and protesters push for a rapid handover to civilian rule following Bashir’s fall earlier this month.

Sudan’s Transitional Military Council (TMC), which ousted and arrested Bashir after months of protests, has said it will rule for up to two years ahead of elections.

Anti-Bashir opposition groups and protesters who have kept up a sit-in outside the Defense Ministry want a civilian-led transitional council with military representation.

They continued their thousands-strong demonstration Saturday evening.

“I came to support the sit-in for a civilian government because the army ruled Sudan since 52 years ago and the result is nothing,” said Nour el-Dayem Gaafar, a 23-year-old student from South Darfur state who had traveled by bus to the capital.

Opposition groups and activists are represented by an umbrella group called the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces, which held two meetings with the TMC Saturday. Both sides expressed optimism after an initial session around the middle of the day.

After a second, evening session, the sources said there was agreement over the formation of a joint council, but not over how many seats either side should have.

The TMC has arrested some former officials, announced anti-corruption measures and promised to give executive authority to a civilian government. But it has signaled that ultimate authority would remain in its hands, leaving protesters frustrated.

​‘Half a revolution’

“Half a revolution is the perishing of a nation,” said Osman Abadi, a 26-year-old sit-in security supervisor draped in a Sudanese flag, who said he was staying even if negotiations between TMC and the opposition failed.

Bashir was overthrown after 16 weeks of protests triggered by a deepening economic crisis. He is being held along with other former officials at Khartoum’s Kobar prison.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has indicted Bashir for alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in the western Sudanese region of Darfur, charges he denies.

On Saturday Sadiq al-Mahdi, the veteran leader of Sudan’s opposition Umma Party, which is part of the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces, said he thought Sudan should join the court.

“Now I have no objection to responding to its demands, and it’s necessary immediately to join (the ICC), but this position has to be coordinated with the military council,” Mahdi told reporters.

The military council has previously suggested that Bashir would be tried in Sudan, where the public prosecutor has begun investigating him, according to a judicial source.

Raid condemned

Separately, the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces condemned a reported raid on a meeting of the Popular Congress Party, which was allied to Bashir before turning against him.

The alliance said in a statement that though the party bore responsibility for what had happened over the past 30 years, there was “no place for the exclusion of rights by force in the nation that our fearless revolutionaries are working to promote.”

State TV reported that more than 140 people were evacuated from the hall where the meeting took place and more than 60 had suffered minor injuries.

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Sources: Sudan Military, Opposition Agree to Joint Council

Sudan’s military rulers and opposition agreed in principle Saturday to the formation of a joint body to lead a transition from 30 years of autocratic rule by Omar al-Bashir, but not on the new council’s makeup, two sources said.

The two sides were holding their first formal discussions as opposition groups and protesters push for a rapid handover to civilian rule following Bashir’s fall earlier this month.

Sudan’s Transitional Military Council (TMC), which ousted and arrested Bashir after months of protests, has said it will rule for up to two years ahead of elections.

Anti-Bashir opposition groups and protesters who have kept up a sit-in outside the Defense Ministry want a civilian-led transitional council with military representation.

They continued their thousands-strong demonstration Saturday evening.

“I came to support the sit-in for a civilian government because the army ruled Sudan since 52 years ago and the result is nothing,” said Nour el-Dayem Gaafar, a 23-year-old student from South Darfur state who had traveled by bus to the capital.

Opposition groups and activists are represented by an umbrella group called the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces, which held two meetings with the TMC Saturday. Both sides expressed optimism after an initial session around the middle of the day.

After a second, evening session, the sources said there was agreement over the formation of a joint council, but not over how many seats either side should have.

The TMC has arrested some former officials, announced anti-corruption measures and promised to give executive authority to a civilian government. But it has signaled that ultimate authority would remain in its hands, leaving protesters frustrated.

​‘Half a revolution’

“Half a revolution is the perishing of a nation,” said Osman Abadi, a 26-year-old sit-in security supervisor draped in a Sudanese flag, who said he was staying even if negotiations between TMC and the opposition failed.

Bashir was overthrown after 16 weeks of protests triggered by a deepening economic crisis. He is being held along with other former officials at Khartoum’s Kobar prison.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has indicted Bashir for alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in the western Sudanese region of Darfur, charges he denies.

On Saturday Sadiq al-Mahdi, the veteran leader of Sudan’s opposition Umma Party, which is part of the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces, said he thought Sudan should join the court.

“Now I have no objection to responding to its demands, and it’s necessary immediately to join (the ICC), but this position has to be coordinated with the military council,” Mahdi told reporters.

The military council has previously suggested that Bashir would be tried in Sudan, where the public prosecutor has begun investigating him, according to a judicial source.

Raid condemned

Separately, the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces condemned a reported raid on a meeting of the Popular Congress Party, which was allied to Bashir before turning against him.

The alliance said in a statement that though the party bore responsibility for what had happened over the past 30 years, there was “no place for the exclusion of rights by force in the nation that our fearless revolutionaries are working to promote.”

State TV reported that more than 140 people were evacuated from the hall where the meeting took place and more than 60 had suffered minor injuries.

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Spaniards Head to Polls, Result Too Close to Predict

Spain heads to the polls Sunday for its most divisive and open-ended election in decades, set to result in a fragmented parliament in which the far-right will get a sizeable presence for the first time since the country’s return to democracy.

After a tense campaign dominated by emotive issues, notably national identity and gender equality, the likelihood that any coalition deal will take weeks or months to be brokered will feed into a broader mood of political uncertainty across Europe.

At least five parties from across the political spectrum have a chance of being in government and they could struggle to agree on a deal between them, meaning a repeat election is one of several possible outcomes.

A few things are clear, however, based on opinion polls and conversations with party insiders. No single party will get a majority; the Socialist party of outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is leading the race; and there will be lawmakers from the far-right Vox party.

Beyond that, the result is too close to call.

​Third election in four years

Voting starts at 9 am (0700 GMT) and ends at 8 pm in mainland Spain for what will be the country’s third national election in four years, each of which has brought a further dislocation of the political landscape.

It is uncertain if Sanchez will manage to stay in office and how many allies he would need to gather together in order to do so.

If, in addition to far-left anti-austerity party Podemos and other small parties, Sanchez also needs the support of Catalan separatist lawmakers, talks will be long and their outcome unclear.

Opinion polls, which ended Monday, have suggested it will be harder for a right wing split between three parties — the center-right Ciudadanos, conservative People’s Party and Vox — to clinch a majority, but this scenario is within polls’ margin of error and cannot be ruled out.

​Known unknowns

With the trauma of military dictatorship under Francisco Franco, who died in 1975, still fresh in the memory for its older generation, Spain had long been seen as resistant to the wave of nationalist, populist parties spreading across much of Europe.

But this time Vox will get seats, boosted by voter discontent with traditional parties, its focus on widespread anger at Catalonia’s independence drive, and non-mainstream views that include opposing a law on gender violence it says discriminates against men.

One of several unknowns is how big an entry Vox will make in parliament’s lower house, with opinion polls having given a wide range of forecasts and struggled to pin down the party’s voter base.

The high number of undecided voters, in some surveys as many as 4 in 10, has also complicated the task of predicting the outcome, as have the intricacies of a complex electoral system under which 52 constituencies elect 350 lawmakers.

Voters in the depopulating rural heartlands, many of whom are old and may well feel little direct connection to the country’s young, male, urban political elite, are of particular importance.

They proportionally elect more lawmakers than the inhabitants of big cities, but at the same time the cut-off point for parliamentary representation there is trickier to reach, making the outcome harder to predict the more parties there are.

An opinion poll will be published at 8 p.m., and results will trickle in through the evening with almost all votes counted by midnight. In the past two elections, the 8 p.m. polls failed to give an accurate picture of the eventual outcome.

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Spaniards Head to Polls, Result Too Close to Predict

Spain heads to the polls Sunday for its most divisive and open-ended election in decades, set to result in a fragmented parliament in which the far-right will get a sizeable presence for the first time since the country’s return to democracy.

After a tense campaign dominated by emotive issues, notably national identity and gender equality, the likelihood that any coalition deal will take weeks or months to be brokered will feed into a broader mood of political uncertainty across Europe.

At least five parties from across the political spectrum have a chance of being in government and they could struggle to agree on a deal between them, meaning a repeat election is one of several possible outcomes.

A few things are clear, however, based on opinion polls and conversations with party insiders. No single party will get a majority; the Socialist party of outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is leading the race; and there will be lawmakers from the far-right Vox party.

Beyond that, the result is too close to call.

​Third election in four years

Voting starts at 9 am (0700 GMT) and ends at 8 pm in mainland Spain for what will be the country’s third national election in four years, each of which has brought a further dislocation of the political landscape.

It is uncertain if Sanchez will manage to stay in office and how many allies he would need to gather together in order to do so.

If, in addition to far-left anti-austerity party Podemos and other small parties, Sanchez also needs the support of Catalan separatist lawmakers, talks will be long and their outcome unclear.

Opinion polls, which ended Monday, have suggested it will be harder for a right wing split between three parties — the center-right Ciudadanos, conservative People’s Party and Vox — to clinch a majority, but this scenario is within polls’ margin of error and cannot be ruled out.

​Known unknowns

With the trauma of military dictatorship under Francisco Franco, who died in 1975, still fresh in the memory for its older generation, Spain had long been seen as resistant to the wave of nationalist, populist parties spreading across much of Europe.

But this time Vox will get seats, boosted by voter discontent with traditional parties, its focus on widespread anger at Catalonia’s independence drive, and non-mainstream views that include opposing a law on gender violence it says discriminates against men.

One of several unknowns is how big an entry Vox will make in parliament’s lower house, with opinion polls having given a wide range of forecasts and struggled to pin down the party’s voter base.

The high number of undecided voters, in some surveys as many as 4 in 10, has also complicated the task of predicting the outcome, as have the intricacies of a complex electoral system under which 52 constituencies elect 350 lawmakers.

Voters in the depopulating rural heartlands, many of whom are old and may well feel little direct connection to the country’s young, male, urban political elite, are of particular importance.

They proportionally elect more lawmakers than the inhabitants of big cities, but at the same time the cut-off point for parliamentary representation there is trickier to reach, making the outcome harder to predict the more parties there are.

An opinion poll will be published at 8 p.m., and results will trickle in through the evening with almost all votes counted by midnight. In the past two elections, the 8 p.m. polls failed to give an accurate picture of the eventual outcome.

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Seattle Construction Crane Falls, Kills 4, Injures 3

Four people died and three were injured when a construction crane on the new Google Seattle campus collapsed Saturday, pinning six cars underneath.

One female and three males were dead by the time firefighters arrived at the scene, Fire Chief Harold Scoggins said. He said two of the dead were crane operators and the other two were people who had been in cars.

A 25-year-old mother and her 4-month-old daughter as well as a 28-year-old man were taken to Harborview Medical Center, according to Seattle Fire spokesman Lance Garland. A fourth person also was injured and treated at the scene.

Harborview spokeswoman Susan Gregg said Saturday evening that the mother and baby would be discharged, while the man injured was in satisfactory condition.

The King County Medical Examiner’s Office said it would not release names of people who died until Monday.

“My thoughts and prayers are with those killed and injured,” Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan said on Twitter.

The crane collapsed near the intersection of Mercer Street and Fairview Avenue near Interstate 5 shortly before 3:30 p.m., Scoggins said.

With Amazon and other tech companies increasing their hiring in Seattle, the city has dozens of construction cranes building office towers and apartment buildings. As of January, there were about 60 construction cranes in Seattle, more than any other American city.

Scoggins said officials do not yet know the cause of the collapse.

Daren Konopaski, the business manager for the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 302, which represents heavy-equipment operators, told The Seattle Times he understood the crane was being dismantled when heavy winds moved through the area.

“We don’t know, but that’s what seems to have happened here,” he said. “We are in the process of trying to get information.”

The National Weather Service in Seattle said a line of showers moved over Seattle just about the time the crane fell. An observation station on nearby Lake Union showed winds kicked up with gusts of up to 23 mph at 3:28 p.m., just about the time officials said the crane fell.

“It was terrifying,” witness Esther Nelson, a biotech researcher who was working in a building nearby, told the newspaper.

“The wind was blowing really strong,” she said, and added that the crane appeared to break in half. “Half of it was flying down sideways on the building,” she said. “The other half fell down on the street, crossing both lanes of traffic.”

The office building the crane fell from was badly damaged, with several of its windows smashed.

“Trudi and I join all Washingtonians in extending our deepest condolences to the family and friends of the four people who died in this afternoon’s tragic accident,” Washington state Gov. Jay Inslee said in a statement. Inslee also said he hoped for a speedy and full recovery for those injured, thanked first responders and urged people to stay clear of the accident scene.

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Kenya Taps Into Technology to Attract Young People to Farms

Kenyan innovators are betting on digital technologies to attract young people to agriculture currently dominated by an aging population. With 98 percent mobile phone penetration, according to the latest data from the Communications Authority of Kenya, the cellphone is proving to be an important source of extension services in areas where such services are not available. Sarah Kimani reports for VOA from Kinoo, Kenya.

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Kenya Taps Into Technology to Attract Young People to Farms

Kenyan innovators are betting on digital technologies to attract young people to agriculture currently dominated by an aging population. With 98 percent mobile phone penetration, according to the latest data from the Communications Authority of Kenya, the cellphone is proving to be an important source of extension services in areas where such services are not available. Sarah Kimani reports for VOA from Kinoo, Kenya.

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More People Use Smartphone Apps to Find Flexible Gig Jobs

While many people have office jobs, working inside an office is not for everybody. And these days in the U.S. more people are turning to gig work — temporary jobs that allow them to work from home, hold multiple jobs and have flexible hours. More gig workers are now using smartphone apps to find jobs that set them free of office work. VOA’s Mykhailo Komadovsky spent time with one gig worker in Washington.

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Poll: Brexit Pushes Support for Scottish Independence to 49%

Support for Scottish independence from the United Kingdom has risen to its highest point in the past four years, largely driven by voters who want to remain in the European Union, according to a poll published Saturday.

As the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) meets for its two-day spring conference, the YouGov poll showed support for secession had risen to 49 percent from 45 percent in the last YouGov poll carried out for The Times in June 2018. 

The SNP is preparing a new independence push after it was defeated in a 2014 referendum by concerns about the economy. 

The party’s proposal for an independent Scotland to continue using the pound in a currency union with Britain was perceived as a particular weakness. 

On Saturday, the SNP leadership proposed that if the country voted for independence, it should use Britain’s pound until a Scottish currency meeting six economic tests could be introduced. Delegates rejected that in favor of a more pressing time frame and formulation urging preparations to introduce a new currency “as soon as practicable after Independence Day,” preserving the six economic tests. 

Scots rejected independence, 55 percent to 45 percent, in a 2014 referendum. Then the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a 2016 referendum, but among its four nations, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay, feeding political tension. 

Britain is mired in political chaos and it is still unclear when or even whether it will leave the EU. 

YouGov also found that 53 percent of Scots thought there should not be another referendum on independence within the next five years. Scotland’s first minister, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, is pushing for one before 2021, when the current Scottish parliamentary term ends. 

YouGov polled 1,029 adults in Scotland following a new guideline on independence set out by Sturgeon on Wednesday. 

The poll also showed voters moving away from both the Conservatives and the Labour Party north of the English border. 

The Scottish Conservatives, part of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party, are set to lose their only representative in the European Parliament in next month’s election as 40 percent of those who backed them two years ago switched to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. 

“These patterns represent a clear warning to the Unionist camp that the pursuit of Brexit might yet produce a majority for independence,” professor John Curtice, Britain’s leading polling expert, wrote in a column for The Times.

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Poll: Brexit Pushes Support for Scottish Independence to 49%

Support for Scottish independence from the United Kingdom has risen to its highest point in the past four years, largely driven by voters who want to remain in the European Union, according to a poll published Saturday.

As the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) meets for its two-day spring conference, the YouGov poll showed support for secession had risen to 49 percent from 45 percent in the last YouGov poll carried out for The Times in June 2018. 

The SNP is preparing a new independence push after it was defeated in a 2014 referendum by concerns about the economy. 

The party’s proposal for an independent Scotland to continue using the pound in a currency union with Britain was perceived as a particular weakness. 

On Saturday, the SNP leadership proposed that if the country voted for independence, it should use Britain’s pound until a Scottish currency meeting six economic tests could be introduced. Delegates rejected that in favor of a more pressing time frame and formulation urging preparations to introduce a new currency “as soon as practicable after Independence Day,” preserving the six economic tests. 

Scots rejected independence, 55 percent to 45 percent, in a 2014 referendum. Then the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a 2016 referendum, but among its four nations, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay, feeding political tension. 

Britain is mired in political chaos and it is still unclear when or even whether it will leave the EU. 

YouGov also found that 53 percent of Scots thought there should not be another referendum on independence within the next five years. Scotland’s first minister, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, is pushing for one before 2021, when the current Scottish parliamentary term ends. 

YouGov polled 1,029 adults in Scotland following a new guideline on independence set out by Sturgeon on Wednesday. 

The poll also showed voters moving away from both the Conservatives and the Labour Party north of the English border. 

The Scottish Conservatives, part of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party, are set to lose their only representative in the European Parliament in next month’s election as 40 percent of those who backed them two years ago switched to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. 

“These patterns represent a clear warning to the Unionist camp that the pursuit of Brexit might yet produce a majority for independence,” professor John Curtice, Britain’s leading polling expert, wrote in a column for The Times.

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