Month: November 2018

Pompeo: No Direct Link Between Crown Prince, Khashoggi Death

Posted on by SeeEA

The gulf between the White House and U.S. lawmakers regarding Saudi Arabia grew Wednesday after two top members of President Donald Trump’s national security team provided a classified briefing to the full Senate.

Nearly two months after a dissident Saudi journalist was killed at the kingdom’s consulate in Turkey, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis urged preservation of Washington’s historically close ties to Riyadh, including U.S. support for the Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen.

That message fell on increasingly deaf ears as senators of both parties blasted the exclusion of CIA Director Gina Haspel from the closed-door encounter. The CIA is widely reported to have concluded that Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the slaying of Jamal Khashoggi, a U.S. resident.

“Not having Gina Haspel at this briefing is a cover-up,” the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Bob Menendez of New Jersey, told reporters. “It tells me volumes about what really is going on here.”

“Look, he [Salman] is responsible for this death [of Khashoggi],” said Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican. “The fact that he hasn’t come clean, the fact that we haven’t forced him to come clean, is creating a problem. And Congress is likely to respond to this.”

Pompeo said based on all the intelligence he has seen, there is no direct evidence linking the crown prince to Khashoggi’s death. He also strongly objected to a pending Senate resolution to halt American backing for Saudi Arabia’s actions in Yemen, describing it as “poorly timed” and arguing it would scuttle efforts to end the country’s devastating civil war.

“Passing a resolution at this point undermines that [peace effort]. It would encourage the Houthis [Yemeni rebels]. It would encourage the Iranians,” Pompeo said.

In unclassified excerpts released from Pompeo’s remarks to the Senate, the secretary of state argued that America’s withdrawal from the Yemeni conflict would extend the civil war and make it more deadly.

Connecticut Democratic Senator Chris Murphy argued the reverse is true.

“The fact of the matter is the Houthis don’t believe the Americans are an honest broker,” Murphy said. “So, by Congress showing that our support for the Saudis is not unconditional, it actually gives reason for the Houthis to come to the [negotiating] table.”

The senator added, “I don’t think the administration won any votes [to oppose the Senate resolution] in that troubled briefing.”

Even so, some senators who opposed a previous version of the resolution earlier this year signaled they had not changed their minds.

“I think the secretaries made a pretty convincing case that, as outrageous as the [Saudi] behavior is, it would be counterproductive to do that [end U.S. involvement in the Yemeni conflict],” Wisconsin Republican Ron Johnson said. “It’s a mean, nasty, ugly world out there.”

Saudi Arabia has denied allegations that Salman played a role in Khashoggi’s death, blaming the killing on rogue agents. Trump has echoed Riyadh’s denials and said the matter remains an open question.

South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a frequent defender of Trump, joined other lawmakers in demanding a briefing by the CIA and threatened to withhold votes on urgent legislation if it doesn’t occur.

“If that briefing is not given soon, it’s going to be hard for me to vote for any [federal] spending bill,” Graham told reporters.
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Pompeo: No Direct Link Between Crown Prince, Khashoggi Murder

Posted on by SeeUS

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says based on all the intelligence he has seen, there is no direct evidence linking Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at Riyadh’s consulate in Turkey.

Pompeo and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis briefed the full U.S. Senate about the murder, amid concerns by members of both parties that CIA Director Gina Haspel was not in attendance.

When asked why Haspel wasn’t there, Pompeo answered “I was asked to be here and here I am.”

Mattis told senators the “fundamental” role Saudi Arabia plays in maintaining stability in the Middle East cannot be dismissed, even as the United States seeks accountability for last month’s murder of Khashoggi.

According to news reports, the CIA has assessed that Salman ordered Khashoggi killed. Saudi Arabia has denied the allegation, blaming the death on rogue agents. U.S. President Donald Trump has echoed Riyadh’s denials and said the matter remains an open question.

Pompeo told senators that “degrading ties with Saudi Arabia would be a grave mistake for U.S. national security, and that of our allies.”

The Trump administration has sanctioned 17 Saudi officials but argued against tougher measures to punish Riyadh, with the president highlighting the economic importance of U.S. arms sales to the kingdom.

Secretary Pompeo says the U.S. doesn’t condone Khashoggi’s murder while also warning against harming U.S. – Saudi ties. “The October murder of Saudi national Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey has heightened the Capitol Hill caterwauling and media pile-on. But degrading U.S.-Saudi ties would be a grave mistake for the national security of the U.S. and its allies,” he wrote in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal.

 

Trump and his administration’s stance has been widely criticized by lawmakers, including some of his most vocal backers.

 

“He [Trump] is focused on the strategic [U.S.-Saudi] relationship, which I understand,” Republican Senator Lindsay Graham said Tuesday. “The difference I have is that to give MBS [Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman] a pass — if he clearly is complicit — is a huge mistake. One of the most dangerous things is for an ally of the United States to disrespect our values and be so flagrant about it.”

 

In coming days, the Senate is expected to vote on ending U.S. backing for the Saudi-led coalition’s military campaign in Yemen, a measure that was defeated earlier this year but has been revived amid mounting anger with the kingdom on Capitol Hill.

“I think we have a real good shot at doing this [passing the resolution],” Vermont independent Senator Bernie Sanders, who co-authored the measure, said. “There is a growing understanding of the humanitarian disaster [in Yemen]. People are understanding the despotic nature of the Saudi regime.”

 

“We shouldn’t be rewarding regimes that are indiscriminately bombing civilians in Yemen, and I’m for ending the arms sales that we have with Saudi Arabia,” Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky said.

 

“On both sides of the aisle there is a growing frustration with the lack of willingness by the administration to challenge the Saudis, particularly on the Khashoggi killing but also on the question of Yemen,” Menendez said. “You just can’t let an ally do anything they want simply because they’re an ally. And if you do, you send a global message that you can kill with impunity.”

 

Not all senators endorse a heavily punitive treatment of Riyadh, however.

 

“I think our challenge here is how to express our disappointment and condemnation to Saudi Arabia without rupturing the relationship,” Louisiana Republican Senator John Kennedy said. “The president has said: this murder was wrong, we may never know with 100 percent certainty who ordered who to do what, but that Saudi Arabia needs to be held responsible. And I agree with that.”

 

“We should be very careful,” Republican Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma said. “Yes, we don’t want to accept the brutality surrounding the murder. But we’ve got to maintain a relationship and I anticipate that we will.”

 

 

 

 
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Trump: US Tariffs on More Foreign Vehicles Would Have Prevented GM Plant Closures

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U.S. President Donald Trump touted the use of U.S. tariffs on foreign small trucks Wednesday, saying their placement on other foreign vehicles would have prevented the closure of several General Motors plants and the loss of thousands of coveted manufacturing jobs.

Trump noted on Twitter that brisk U.S. small truck sales in the country are due to a 25-percent tariff on small truck imports.

The president reiterated on Twitter that “countries that send us cars have taken advantage of the U.S. for decades.” Trump added he has “great power on this issue,” which he said “is being studied now.”

Trump has threatened to eliminate all federal subsidies to GM in response to the company’s planned closure of five plants and the elimination of 14,000 jobs in North America. Questions remain, though, about whether Trump has the authority to act against the automaker without congressional approval.

Federal tax credits of up to $7,500 are available to those who buy GM electric vehicles. Killing the subsidies may have little financial impact on GM because it is on the cusp of reaching its subsidy limit.

Many of the jobs would be eliminated in Midwestern U.S. states, a region where Trump has long promised a manufacturing rebirth.

GM, which said it has invested more than $22 billion in U.S. operations since it came out of bankruptcy in 2009, has tried to appease the Trump administration while justifying its decisions.

“We appreciate the actions this administration has taken on behalf of industry to improve the overall competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing,” GM said in a statement Tuesday.

Before GM can shutter factories next year in Michigan, Ohio and Ontario, Canada, it must reach agreement with the United Auto Workers union. The union has vowed to fight the closures legally and in collective bargaining.

GM’s restructuring reflects changes in buying trends in North America, prompting vehicle manufacturers to shift away from cars and toward SUVs and trucks.

 

 

 

 

 
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Straight Talk Africa

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We are live. Let us know what part of the world you are watching us from and join our conversation.
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Nigerian Media Debuts Collaborative Project to Fight Fake News Ahead of Elections

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At least 15 Nigerian organizations debuted a collaborative online platform Wednesday to combat fake news ahead of the country’s February elections.

The Crosscheck Nigeria blog brings together competing newsrooms to investigate questionable claims, especially on social media. The collaboration was proposed by First Draft, a Harvard University-based project dedicated to fight fake news around the world, in partnership with the International Center for Investigative Reporting in Nigeria.

Completed investigations will appear on the site only when at least five of the partners have approved their work.

As of Wednesday evening, the site already had two posts — one discrediting a story about Russian President Vladimir Putin originating from a fake Al Jazeera Facebook page, and another fact-checking a politician who released photos he falsely claimed depicted the Nigerian military attacking the terror organization Boko Haram.

Nigeria often struggles with fake news. One of the most persistent examples is an online rumor that President Muhammadu Buhari, 75, who is running for reelection, died during his lengthy treatment in London for an unspecified illness in 2017.
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Speculation Grows About Ankara-Riyadh Rapprochement

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Ankara is opening the door to a meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), fueling speculation of a possible improvement in ties that were strained by last month’s killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at Riyadh’s consulate in Istanbul. Erdogan has blamed the death on unnamed elements of the Saudi Kingdom’s leadership.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu claimed the Saudi crown prince requested a meeting with Erdogan on the sidelines of this week’s G-20 summit in Buenos Aires. “At this point, there is no reason not to meet the crown prince,” Cavusoglu said to reporters Tuesday. Erdogan has not commented on any meeting.

Erdogan and the Saudi crown prince are widely seen as regional rivals. Analysts claim Erdogan has skillfully maintained pressure on the crown prince over Khashoggi’s disappearance. The Turkish president is at the forefront of demanding justice and holding to account all those responsible for the Saudi reporter’s death.

Some observers suggest Ankara’s apparent readiness to meet Salman could be a sign of a change in policy toward Riyadh.

“A meeting between Erdogan and the crown prince, which would also produce a good photo opportunity for the latter, but may lead to a number of questions and concerns over the continued investigation and prosecution of the Saudi journalist,” columnist Serkan Demirtas of Hurriyet Daily News wrote Wednesday.

“A meeting with the prince would not be a good idea if the Turkish side is not planning to enter a new stage in its ties with the Saudi Kingdom in the post-Khashoggi era,” Demirtas added.

Khashoggi investigation

Turkish police are continuing their investigation into Khashoggi’s death. This week, two large Saudi-owned residences in the city of Yalova, an hour’s drive from Istanbul, were searched. Local media report the owners have close ties to the crown prince. Despite extensive searches over nearly two months, the journalist’s body remains missing.

Erdogan’s dogged pursuit of Khashoggi’s killers and repeated insinuations of the crown prince’s involvement fueled speculation he was seeking to oust him from power, or at least significantly diminish his power. However, the robust support by U.S. President Donald Trump for the crown prince is seen as dashing such hopes.

Analysts suggest that with international pressure appearing to ease up on Riyadh and the risk of severe economic repercussions for Ankara, now could be the time for Erdogan to cash in on his strategic advantage.

“Justice for Khashoggi is threatening to mutate into economic war, which could upset the lucrative trade, tourism and contracting ties at a time when Turkey needs every penny of Arab money,” said analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners.

“The gains to be made, claiming justice is served, is Turkey has the moral high ground, but economic and political gains are minimal,” he added. “Real politics dictates Erdogan just stop short of revealing culpability of bin Salman and settles for political and economic concessions.”

Any rapprochement by Erdogan with the crown prince would be especially welcomed by Trump, according to observers. Washington has been forced onto the diplomatic back foot on several occasions by Ankara’s release of information regarding the death of Khashoggi.

“Trump would owe Erdogan a great deal if Erdogan would just stop this investigation before it reaches MBS,” Yesilada said.

Trump-Erdogan meeting

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said Trump would meet Erdogan at the G-20 Summit. Ankara has a long wish list of demands from Washington on multiple issues.

“Erdogan is going to follow Donald Trump, he is not going to break relations with Saudi Arabia,” said international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. “Of course, Saudi Arabia will have to pay something, but I do not know what. However, Tayyip Erdogan will use this situation for economic and political advantages for Turkey.”

Analysts point out that with the Turkish economy facing recession, Ankara could be looking for financial support from Riyadh, as well as a possible lifting or easing of the Saudi embargo on Turkish ally Qatar. On Monday, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani met Erdogan in Istanbul. Up until now, though, the Turkish president has dismissed talks of Saudi concessions as bribery.

Erdogan’s tough stance over Khashoggi’s death has won him rare international plaudits from many of Turkey’s western allies, which increasingly have been critical of his rule and the deterioration of human rights in Turkey. Equally, analysts point out that the so-called “Arab Street” is seen as supportive of the Turkish leader’s determination to hold Riyadh to account.

“Will Erdogan really throw all caution and possibly fat paychecks from Riyadh and political favors from Trump administration to declare all-out war on MBS?” Yesilada asked. “The difficulty in reaching a conclusion in this affair stems from the fact that the three main actors in the drama, namely Messrs. Erdogan, Trump and MBS are not what you and I would call ‘rational.'”
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Powell: Fed’s Gradual Rate Hikes Balance Against Risks

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that while there was “a great deal to like” about U.S. prospects, the Fed’s gradual interest rate hikes are meant to balance risks as it tries to keep the economy on track.

“We know that things often turn out to be quite different from even the most careful forecasts,” Powell said in a speech that comes in the wake of last week’s volatile market selloff. “Our gradual pace of raising interest rates has been an exercise in balancing risks.”

Powell offered few clues on how much longer the U.S. central bank would raise interest rates in the face of a slowdown overseas and market volatility at home. Instead he highlighted a new financial stability report the Fed published earlier on Wednesday.

“My own assessment is that, while risks are above normal in some areas and below normal in others, overall financial stability vulnerabilities are at a moderate level,” he said at an Economic Club of New York luncheon.
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Senate to Debate Ending US Military Support for Yemen War

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The Senate on Wednesday voted overwhelmingly to move forward on a resolution ending U.S. military support to the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen.

The 63-37 vote meant the Senate could start debating the resolution as early as next week.

Many of the lawmakers, from both parties, were concerned not only about the humanitarian calamity caused by the fighting in Yemen but also about President Donald Trump’s reluctance to punish the Saudis for the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Saudi-led airstrikes against Houthi rebels include weapons bought from the United States. They have killed thousands of Yemeni civilians, destroyed hospitals and wiped out entire neighborhoods. The U.S. has also provided intelligence to the coalition.

Before Wednesday’s vote, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis appeared before the Senate to defend U.S. involvement in Yemen.

“The suffering in Yemen grieves me, but if the United States was not involved in Yemen, it would be a hell of a lot worse,” Pompeo said.

Mattis told the senators that “the U.S. is not operationally involved in hostilities in Yemen’s civil war or in situations where the threat of hostilities is imminent, other than in counterterrorism operations against AQAP and ISIS” — references to the al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula and Islamic State terror groups.

Civilian casualties

Lawmakers have expressed skepticism about the Trump administration’s assertion that the coalition has been doing all it can to avoid civilian casualties.

“President Trump added measures to improve the coalition’s deliberate targeting procedures designed to minimize civilian casualties in this conflict to the greatest extent possible,” Mattis said.

A Saudi airstrike on a schoolbus bringing children back from a picnic in August killed about 40 children. Investigators said a U.S.-made bomb was used. 

The coalition called the bombing a “mistake.”​

Pompeo told the senators that a diplomatic mission led by U.N. Special Envoy Martin Griffiths was “gaining steam.”

“If that diplomacy starts to make breakthroughs, our hopes are high that hostilities will soon stop entirely,” he said. 

Pompeo also said the United States had sent nearly $700 million in food and humanitarian aid to Yemen in the last 14 months. 

Iranian-backed Houthi rebels seized the Yemeni capital of Sanaa in 2014, sending the government fleeing to exile in Saudi Arabia. It has since relocated to the Yemeni city of Aden. 

Crucial port

Much of the fighting between the rebels and Yemeni and coalition forces is focused in the key port of Hodeida, where nearly all food and emergency aid deliveries are made. 

The city is in rebel hands, and the Saudis say the Houthis use the port to receive Iranian weapons, a charge Iran denies. 

The U.N. has said 80 percent of Yemen’s population is in desperate need of food, medicine and clean water, and it warns of famine if there is no cease-fire soon. 
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Guilty Plea in Muslim Teen’s Death; Will Carry Life Sentence

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In a plea deal that allows him to avoid a possible death penalty, a northern Virginia man has admitted he raped and killed a Muslim teenager last year.

Twenty-five-year-old Darwin Martinez-Torres of Sterling entered the guilty plea Wednesday in Fairfax County in the June 2017 murder of 17-year-old Nabra Hassanen of Reston. She had been out with a group of friends eating a pre-dawn meal at a fast-food restaurant ahead of Ramadan services.

Martinez-Torres was driving by and got into an altercation with the group.

 

Wednesday’s plea deal imposes a life sentence without possibility of parole.

 

Nabra’s death attracted widespread attention amid concerns that her slaying was motivated by anti-Muslim sentiment, though police have said repeatedly they have no evidence of a hate crime.
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Senators Grill US Officials on Khashoggi Response

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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is warning senators that U.S. national security interests are at stake as they consider a vote to halt U.S. involvement in the Saudi-led war in Yemen.

In prepared remarks released ahead of a closed-door Senate briefing on Wednesday, Pompeo says diplomatic efforts to end the conflict are ongoing and argues that without U.S. involvement in Yemen, civilian casualties there would be much worse.

“The suffering in Yemen grieves me, but if the United States of America was not involved in Yemen, it would be a hell of a lot worse,” Pompeo said.

It’s unclear if that message will be enough for senators, who have grown increasingly uneasy with the U.S. response to Saudi Arabia after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The briefing with Pompeo and Defense Secretary James Mattis could determine how far Congress goes in punishing the longtime Middle East ally.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says “some kind of response” is needed from the United States for the Saudis’ role in the gruesome death. While U.S. intelligence officials have concluded the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, must have at least known of the plot, the CIA’s findings have not been made public and President Donald Trump has equivocated over who is to blame.

McConnell said on Tuesday that “what obviously happened, as basically certified by the CIA, is completely abhorrent to everything the United States holds dear and stands for in the world. We’re discussing what the appropriate response would be.”

The resolution needs just a simple majority to advance, but a vote is not certain this week. It could launch a process for amending the bill that could play out for days in the Senate. It could end up being a largely symbolic move as House Republican leaders have given no indication they would take up the war powers measure before the end of the year.

Pompeo says U.S. involvement in the Yemen conflict is central to the Trump administration’s broader goal of containing Iranian influence in the Middle East.

“The first mission is to assist the Saudis and the Emiratis in their fight against Iranian-backed Houthi fighters. This conflict isn’t optional for Saudi Arabia, and abandoning it puts American interests at risk, too,” he says according to the prepared remarks.

Much will depend on what senators hear from Mattis and Pompeo. Administration officials were able to stall a Senate effort earlier this year against the Saudi-backed conflict in Yemen, when the resolution from Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Mike Lee, R-Utah, fell just six votes short of passage. It drew a mix of Democrats and Republicans who have grown uneasy with U.S. involvement in the Saudi-led campaign against the Houthis in a war that human rights advocates say is subjecting civilians to indiscriminate bombing and wreaking havoc on the country.

That was long before the October 2 death of Khashoggi, the U.S.-educated journalist who was publicly critical of the Saudi crown prince. Senators are increasingly frustrated over the administration’s response to that killing and are particularly upset that no one from the intelligence community is attending Wednesday’s briefing.

Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, one of 10 Democrats who declined to join the earlier effort against the Saudis, said Tuesday he was reconsidering his position.

“Things changed,” Manchin said. “The whole thing with Khashoggi is very much concerning. It’s not who we are as a country. It’s not who we should have as allies and not condemn that.”

The top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, will likely be in favor of the Yemen resolution, and another key member of the panel, Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., said he was “inclined” to support it now if it came up for a vote.

 Senators are getting hammered by outside groups running ads and lobbying them for action.

“What I would argue to the administration is that somehow or another there’s got to be a price to pay for what has happened,” said Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., the chairman of the committee.

“My sense is, unless something happens — where they share what it is they’re going to do to deal with this injustice that has occurred — my sense is that people are going to vote to get on the bill.”

Khashoggi was killed in what U.S. officials have described as an elaborate plot at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, which he had visited for marriage paperwork.

Trump has said it may never be known who was responsible for the killing, and in public comments — and a long and unusual statement last week — he reinforced the United States’ long-standing alliance with the Saudis. Trump has praised a pending arms deal with the kingdom that he says will provide the U.S. with jobs and lucrative payments, though some outside assessments say the economic benefits are exaggerated.

Several GOP senators, including key allies Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Rand Paul of Kentucky, have publicly questioned Trump’s handling of the situation. Paul is trying to block the arms sale.

“If you don’t draw the line here, where do you draw the line?” Graham asked reporters Tuesday. He, too, supports blocking the arms sale and said giving the crown prince “a pass on murdering a critic doesn’t make the world a safer place.”
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Turkey’s Construction Sector in Crisis

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The collapse in Turkey’s currency and surging interest rates have plunged the country’s construction industry into recession.  The construction sector was the driving force of the country’s booming economy and with it President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s electoral success.

Istanbul’s Fikirtepe district is the center of a massive urban redevelopment project, but dozens of cranes are idle, with most workers laid off.  Turkey’s once-booming construction sector has come to a grinding halt.

The currency collapse drove up the cost of imported materials, and industry has also suffered from massive interest rate hikes, which increased loan repayment costs while drying up demand for new homes.  

“At least at half of these builders will exit or the market or go bankrupt,” said analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners, ”there is a huge oversupply in particular in the luxury sector, which cannot be liquidated.  The government has tried several mechanisms that didn’t work because they don’t have the money.”

Workers unpaid

Workers owed thousands of dollars in unpaid wages are seizing some luxury apartment blocks in Istanbul.

“I live with my wife and two children, and we can’t afford to pay our rent and monthly expenses anymore,” said construction worker Taner Mutlu, “That’s why I am in protesting here for 56 days.  We can only live with debt.”

Mutlu claims he is owed about $40,000 and many suppliers and contractors are also owed money.

The construction crisis has seen many families losing their homes.

In the Fikirtepe district, about 2,000 families gave up their old homes in exchange for the promise of new apartments in massive developments built on the land where their houses stood.  A sizable cavernous hole is all that remains of their dream homes.

The families now occupy the abandoned construction site.  Weekly meetings are held in a metal container, which serves as a campaign headquarters in their battle to seek redress.  Many of those attending have photos of their old homes on their telephones, a painful reminder of a lost way of life.

“At 60 years old I have been kicked out of my home, my household, my land,” said Zeynep Duzgunoglu.  “All these contractors,” she added her voice now trembling with emotion, “men with briefcases, came, lied and embezzled people and had families sign away their lands and now they are not building.”

Widespread trouble

The construction industry was the engine of more than a decade of unprecedented Turkish economic growth.  Given construction’s large supply chains, economists estimate up to a third of Turkey’s economy is impacted by the sector.

“After tourism, it’s the most labor-intensive industry.  It pulls the most inputs from a diverse range of industries,” said analyst Yesilada.

Observers say prosperity is the key to Erdogan’s 16 years of unbroken electoral success.

“The construction bosses have also financed AKP election campaigns,” said Yesilada. “You see hundreds of thousands of jubilant people screaming at the rallies, they are bused in.  These construction bosses hire hundreds of coaches for the rallies.”

State building projects are continuing in a bid to keep the construction industry alive.  Last month saw the opening of Istanbul’s new airport, touted as one of the world’s largest.  Next year, Erdogan promises to start building 43-kilometer long canal near Istanbul, with accompanying new towns.  

Despite the scale of the projects that run into billions of dollars, they risk being dwarfed by the size of construction sector crisis.

“I haven’t seen anything like this for 35 years,” said, Mustafa Adnan Akyol, a veteran construction worker organizer.

“I have never experienced such a scale of people being laid off,” he added, “Salaries not being paid, and working conditions being this terrible.  We had all these before, but this time it is 100 times worse.  It is not something small.  It is huge and affecting big time.  Unemployment started because the construction sites came to a halt.”

Recent polls indicate a sharp drop in support for Erdogan’s AKP Party, with crucial local elections for control of Turkey’s cities due in March.

“This [crisis] has employment implications, unemployment workers won’t vote for AKP, and campaign finance implications, construction companies don’t have the money to support AKP anymore, this is why AKP is slipping in the polls,” said Yesilada.
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Ikea Moving Into City Centers to Adapt to Consumer Changes

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An airport worker drops by Warsaw’s newest Ikea store during her lunch break to finish up plans for a home refurbishment. Around her, people drift in and out of the shop, placing small houseware items in big yellow bags as cafe tables fill up with people just stopping in for lunch.

The store is not one of Ikea’s out-of-the-way, maze-like warehouses that require a car to visit, but a shop like any other in a city center shopping mall. The Swedish retailing giant plans to open 30 such smaller stores in major cities around the world as part of a broader transformation to adapt to changing consumer habits.

Compared with just a decade ago, shoppers are more likely to be living in urban areas and not have a car, and often want a nearby location to look at goods like furniture in person before ordering things online.

“I like the idea because you can come any time,” said 29-year-old Angelika Singh, the airport worker, as she finalized an order for a new kitchen. “Mostly when you go to Ikea you need to have a whole day free, or at least half a day free, because it’s far.”

Warsaw’s store is located on two floors covering nearly 5,000 square meters (54,000 square feet), about one-fourth of a traditional big-box store. Similar stores have also opened in major cities like London and Madrid and more are expected, with one due next year in Paris, among other locations.

Shoppers can buy cushions, curtains and other home items. They can design the layout of bedrooms and kitchens at computer stations. But those hoping to buy a bookcase or bed will not find them stocked in a large warehouse, though they can order them at kiosks and have them delivered to their homes.

As such, it offers a very different shopping experience from the usual visit to one of the large warehouse stores.

“Ikea’s been doing pretty much the same for 70 years. It’s been a cash-and-carry company, and it still is for the majority of its sales,” said Andreas Flygare, the project manager for the Warsaw store. Now, he explained, the company must adapt to a consumer environment that has changed dramatically in the last 10 years.

“You have companies like Amazon and Uber that are raising the bar for what is expected. Because if you can have same-day delivery, or an Uber is two minutes away, it influences other companies, like Ikea,” he said in a recent interview in the store’s cafe. “It can be a quite tough environment. Everything is changing so fast.”

While Ikea is still profitable, its earnings have recently been growing more slowly than expected.

Thomas Slide, senior retail analyst at the market research firm Mintel, described it as a rational response to a “global trend towards urban living and a rebirth of the cities.”

“While Ikea used to be able to build its big blue warehouses on the edge of towns and cities and expect shoppers to come to them, now it has recognized it needs to be more flexible in its approach and take the Ikea experience to them, through digital channels and smaller stores closer to where people live and work,” Slide said.

Ikea isn’t the first to embrace such an approach. In the U.S., retailer Target has rolled out smaller stores to broaden its reach. French hardware store Leroy Merlin has done the same, as have Kingfisher-owned DIY store B&Q and sofa retailer DFS in Britain.

“While Ikea may not be on the cutting edge of this trend, it’s an important strategy to prepare the business for the future,” Slide said. “The challenge will be adding extra services through additional channels while also maintaining profitability.”

Chen Yu Ting, a 25-year-old from Taiwan who studies medicine in Warsaw, said it used to take him 40 minutes by bus to visit one of the large Ikea stores outside the city. But he is a short walk to the new store, and after an initial trip to buy pillows and bed sheets he now returns often for lunch, which is priced right for his budget.

“It’s more convenient, and now I just come here to eat,” he said.

His only complaint? The store doesn’t stock frozen meatballs.
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Pacific Storm to Bring Rain, Mountain Snow to California

Posted on by SeeUS

California will see widespread rain and heavy Sierra Nevada snowfall through midweek, potentially bringing travel problems and raising the risk of damaging runoff from wildfire burn scars, forecasters said Tuesday.

The wet pattern from a deep atmospheric fetch of Pacific moisture marks a significant change in the weather following conditions that contributed to disastrous and deadly wildfires up and down California, where hundreds of thousands of acres have burned this year.

“This is good news to help minimize that fire activity,” Cal Fire spokesman Scott McLean said . “But remember that if you are in an area that has seen recent fires this year or latter part of last year it could mean trouble as that soil is much more prone to mudslides and debris flow.”

The National Weather Service said there was a risk of heavy rainfall in northwest California through Tuesday night, then spreading farther south down virtually all of the coastal ranges and some interior sections of the state through Wednesday and Thursday.

Snow accumulations in the Sierra could range from 2-4 feet (0.6-1.2 meters), the NWS said.

In the Sierra, chain controls were put into effect on Interstate 80 between Kingvale and the Donner Lake interchange, the California Department of Transportation said. 

On the coast near Big Sur, Caltrans planned to close a section of Highway 1 between Mud Creek and Paul’s Slide for 48 hours starting Wednesday morning because of potential instability.

The scenic route perched between towering mountainsides and the ocean has been dogged by slides since late 2016. But the one that hit Mud Creek near Ragged Point in May 2017 was monumental. Millions of tons of earth moved, displacing 75 acres (30 hectares) of land and extensive work was required to rebuild the highway over the slide.

Caltrans also warned that chains will be required for travel through the mountains of San Bernardino and Riverside counties east of Los Angeles when the storm arrives there Wednesday evening. Flash flood watches were to go into effect Thursday morning in those area as well as parts of Orange County.

Forecasters also warned of very high surf along the coast. 
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Senate’s McConnell Says He Will ‘Probably’ Block Bill to Shield Mueller

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Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said on Tuesday he would “probably” block a renewed effort to bring to a vote a bill to protect Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

The bill, known as the Special Counsel Independence and Integrity Act, would make it harder for President Donald Trump to undermine the investigation, which he has called a witch hunt. The measure has already been approved at the committee level with bipartisan support.

“I probably would” object to bringing up the bill, McConnell told reporters at the U.S. Capitol, calling a bipartisan effort to force such a vote “a solution in search of a problem” as Trump renewed his Twitter attacks on Mueller and his long-running inquiry.

McConnell reiterated that Mueller should be allowed to finish his probe, which is also looking into possible collusion between Moscow and the Trump campaign and obstruction of justice. But he said he did not think Trump would try to fire Mueller, adding that lawmakers “have a lot of things to do to try to finish up this year without taking votes on things that are completely irrelevant to outcomes.”

Moscow denies interfering in the 2016 election, and Trump has denied any collusion occurred.

The president blasted Mueller again on Tuesday on Twitter, calling him a “conflicted prosecutor gone rogue” and accusing him of doing “TREMENDOUS damage” to the criminal justice system.

Noting the attack, Senator Jeff Flake, a Republican who is retiring from Congress, and Senate Democrats Chris Coons and Cory Booker said on Tuesday they would again seek to bring up the legislation for a vote Wednesday.

Flake tried the same step earlier this month, and McConnell stopped the bill from advancing. Flake responded by saying he would try to block judicial nominations pending in the Senate until McConnell lets the Mueller bill go to a floor vote.

Before McConnell spoke Tuesday, No. 2 Senate Republican John Cornyn told reporters that Republican leaders were trying to gauge support for the Mueller bill. He suggested it could be brought up for a vote to try to end Flake’s tactics.

Cornyn added that he opposed the bill, believing it to be unconstitutional. Some Democrats want to put language protecting the Mueller investigation into a spending bill to fund the government that must pass by Dec. 7.
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As Trump Renews Border Wall Demands, US Government Shutdown Looms

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President Donald Trump’s renewed demand for U.S. taxpayer funding of his proposed U.S.-Mexico border wall was threatening again on Tuesday to bring on a budget standoff and a partial government shutdown, leaving Congress just 11 days to act.

With time running short, Trump and Republican leaders of the U.S. House of Representatives huddled at the White House. Border security was expected to be high on the agenda.

By Dec. 7, Congress must pass this spending bill, estimated at $312 billion, to keep some government agencies funded, including the Department of Homeland Security, which polices the border and immigration.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will meet with the incoming foreign minister of Mexico on Sunday to discuss immigration, a top White House official said.

“They will have a full conversation about all the issues in connection with the border,” White House national security adviser John Bolton told reporters.

Washington’s focus on the Mexican border coincides with televised images of U.S. border police lobbing tear gas canisters over a border fence in Southern California on Sunday into crowds of asylum seekers, mostly from Central America.

Even with the divisive Nov. 6 congressional elections over, Trump has continued to rail against thousands of migrants in a caravan traveling from violence-ridden Central American countries to seek asylum in the United States.

The latest border incident was unlikely to shift the partisan split in Congress over Trump’s proposed, $23 billion wall, with many Republicans in favor and most Democrats against, Senator Marco Rubio told reporters in a Capitol hallway.

“People here are pretty dug in,” said Rubio, a Republican.

Democratic Senator Jon Tester, who like Rubio is a member of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, predicted a border security deal would be struck in coming days.

​But a House Democratic aide familiar with the negotiations said in a telephone interview that, at least for now, talks over Homeland Security’s budget were “a total mess.”

House Republicans want $5 billion for Trump’s wall, while the Senate wants $1.6 billion for this fiscal year. The Trump administration would like the entire $23 billion up front, fearing that a House run by Democrats next year would never fully fund the long-term costs of the wall.

Rubio said more “physical structures” are needed to reinforce the border. But, he said, “The ultimate border security is to help address … the causes of people leaving Guatemala and Honduras” and fleeing to the United States.

Under Republican control of the Senate and House in recent years, U.S. spending on programs to combat violence and promote the economies of El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Honduras has declined sharply. At the same time, despite Trump’s efforts to make immigration more difficult, the number of illegal crossings has risen.

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, in the fiscal year that ended on Sept. 30, apprehensions on the southwest border of unaccompanied children rose 21 percent from  the previous year to 50,000, while family apprehensions were up 42 percent to more than 107,000.

As Trump gears up for his 2020 re-election bid, he is expected to hammer on his 2016 campaign pledge to stop illegal immigration, raising fears that he might not back down, as he has before, from a threat to close the government.

“Life is hard, but it’s harder when you’re stupid. A government shutdown would be stupid,” said Republican Senator John Kennedy, also an Appropriations Committee member. “But if we can’t agree on the budget, we can’t agree on the budget,” he added.
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Pew: Undocumented in US Hit Lowest Level in Decade in 2016

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The number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. fell to its lowest level in 10 years in 2016, the Pew Research Center reported Tuesday. 

Using government data, nonpartisan Pew’s “Fact Tank” concluded that from 2007 to 2016, the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. fell from a peak of 12.2 million to 10.7 million. 

Pew attributed the decrease to a sharp drop — by 1.5 million — in the number of Mexicans crossing the U.S. border illegally. 

However, the number of immigrants from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras trying to cross over from Mexico illegally was up, making Central America the only region for which there was an increase in undocumented immigrants in the 10-year study period. 

The number of undocumented Central Americans in the U.S. grew from 1.5 million in 2007 to 1.85 million in 2016. 

Apprehensions of Central Americans at the U.S.-Mexico border have also risen, from 54,000 in 2007 to 165,000 in 2017.  But Pew said they remained well below the peak of 239,000 in 2014. 

Visa overstays 

Because the numbers overall are dropping, the current population of unauthorized immigrants includes fewer recent arrivals than 10 years ago, especially from Mexico. The country still accounts for about half of the undocumented population in the U.S. 

Here are some of the report’s other findings: 

— Two-thirds of adult unauthorized immigrants have lived in the country for more than 10 years. 

— The number of unauthorized immigrant workers has fallen, along with their share of the total U.S. workforce from 2007 to 2016. 

— As unauthorized immigrants extend their stays in the U.S., more have U.S.-born children — 43 percent in 2016, compared with 32 percent in 2007. 

And while the U.S.-Mexico border has been the focus of the Trump administration and the media in recent weeks, Pew said most unauthorized immigrants enter the U.S. on legal visas and remain after their visas expire. 

“The share who are likely to be people who overstayed their visas probably grew substantially between 2007 and 2016, to the point where they probably constituted most of the recent unauthorized immigrant arrivals in 2016,” the report said. 

The latest overstay report showed that more than 700,000 holders of expired visas should have left in fiscal 2017. Pew said 90 percent of overstays were from countries other than Mexico or Central America. 

Deportations 

Deportations, which peaked in 2013, could have played a role in decreasing the undocumented population. 

Pew noted that deportations rose during the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations — from 211,000 in 2003 to a record 433,000 in 2013, according to Department of Homeland Security statistics. 

In fiscal 2016, they remained above 300,000, most of them from Mexico and the three Northern Triangle nations in Central America. 

“Deportations appear to have declined since then, based on limited statistics,” the report said, citing a 17 percent drop from fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2017. “Nearly 230,000 unauthorized immigrants were removed, which included a decline in those detained at the U.S.-Mexico border, as well as an increase in those arrested in the interior of the U.S.” 
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Trump Threatens to Cut GM Subsidies in Retaliation for US Job Cuts

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U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Tuesday to cut subsidies for General Motors after the largest U.S. automaker said it would halt production at five plants in North America and cut nearly 15,000 jobs.

“The U.S. saved General Motors, and this is the THANKS we get! We are now looking at cutting all @GM subsidies, including … for electric cars,” Trump said on Twitter.

Trump has made boosting auto jobs a key priority during his almost two years in office and has often attacked automakers on Twitter for not doing enough to boost U.S. employment.

GM electric vehicles are eligible for a $7,500 tax credit under federal law, but it is not clear how the administration could restrict those credits or if Trump had other subsidies in mind. GM shares extended earlier declines and were down 3.6 percent after Trump’s tweets.

GM declined to immediately comment.

GM Chief Executive Mary Barra spoke to Trump over the weekend to discuss the cuts and was at the White House on Monday to meet with economic adviser Larry Kudlow.

Trump also criticized GM for not closing facilities in Mexico or China.

“General Motors made a big China bet years ago when they built plants there (and in Mexico) – don’t think that bet is going to pay off. I am here to protect America’s Workers!” Trump wrote on Twitter.

GM currently builds just one vehicle in China that it exports to the United States — the Buick Envision — and has sold about 22,000 through September. GM sold nearly 2.7 million vehicles in China through September, nearly all of them built in China for the market.

White House spokesman Sarah Sanders told reporters Tuesday that the president is looking at options.

“The president wants to see American companies build cars here in America, not build them overseas and he is hopeful that GM will continue to do that here,” she said.

GM has been lobbying Congress, along with Tesla, to lift the current cap on electric vehicles eligible for tax credits, but any action by Congress before 2019 is a long-shot, congressional aides said.

Under current law, once a manufacturer sells 200,000 electric vehicles, the tax credit phases out over time starting in the following quarter. GM has said it expects to hit the 200,000-vehicle threshold by the end of the year.

GM announced Monday it will halt production at one Canadian plant and four U.S. factories, including the Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly plant that builds the plug-in hybrid electric Chevrolet Volt. GM is ending production of six vehicles, including the Volt, as it cuts more than 6,500 factory jobs.

GM will continue to build the electric Chevrolet Bolt in Michigan.

Trump told GM on Monday it “better” find a new product for Lordstown Assembly plant in Ohio that will halt production in March. GM has said sagging demand for small cars largely prompted the cuts, but also cited factors including higher costs from U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.

GM said it also plans to close two unnamed plants outside North America by the end of 2019.
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Lebanon Minister: Syrian Abuses Slow Return of Refugees

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Some refugees who have gone back to Syria from Lebanon have been killed, detained or forced to join the military, abuses that deter others from returning, a Lebanese Cabinet minister said Tuesday.

Minister of State for Refugees Affairs Mouin Merhebi told The Associated Press that 20 refugees have been killed since refugees started returning from Lebanon in June. His claims have been contested by groups that closely monitor the Syria conflict and by Lebanese officials close to the Syrian government.

Merhebi said that so far about 12,000 Syrian refugees have returned home from Lebanon since June.  His numbers are much lower than those released by Lebanon’s General Security Directorate, which says more than 87,000 have returned.

Merhebi, who is a harsh critic of the Syrian government and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, said some of those who have been registered as returnees go back and forth between the two neighboring countries.

Either way, it’s a small fraction of the hundreds of thousands who fled to Lebanon to escape the civil war, which began in 2011.

Syria’s seven-year conflict has displaced nearly half the country’s population, with an estimated 6 million internally displaced and 5.6 million fleeing to neighboring countries and Europe, and registering with the United Nations Refugee Agency.

“What we are sure about is nearly 20 (got killed) and there are three cases that I personally documented and I spoke with their relatives and received their photos,” Merhebi said, before flipping through his smartphone showing photos of three young men who he said were killed in their village near the Lebanon border after crossing into Syria. He said his information about Syrians getting killed back home came from relatives residing in Lebanon. He did not offer any concrete evidence beyond that.

“Such acts discourage Syrian refugees from returning home,” Merhebi said.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which supports the Syrian opposition, said it had no reports that any repatriated refugees were killed. But its director, Rami Abdurrahman, said 700 have been detained since June. Of those, 370 remain in custody.

Merhebi said that at the height of the war the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon reached 1.2 million, or about a quarter of Lebanon’s population. He said the number now is about 940,000, after some returned to Syria or were resettled in other countries.

The Russian military says nearly 270,000 Syrian refugees have returned home in recent months.

Russia and the Syrian government have been encouraging refugees to repatriate, arguing that the violence has subsided. Russia launched military operations to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in 2015, changing the tide of the war in his favor.

Western governments say it’s too early to encourage return. Rights groups and the U.N. fear refugees would face persecution returning to government-controlled areas in the absence of a comprehensive political agreement.

Merhebi blasted the Shiite Hezbollah, which joined with government forces in 2013, accusing them of preventing mostly Sunni residents from returning to their homes in villages and towns near the Lebanon border. He accused the group of trying to bring about demographic change in the region, which runs alongside mostly-Shiite areas on the Lebanese side of the border.

“Hezbollah contributed to the destruction of Syrian cities and towns and killed and displaced Syrians,” he said. “The moment Syrian refugees hear that Hezbollah is registering names they get terrified. … This is having negative effects.”

Hezbollah has rejected Merhebi’s findings, and says it encourages Syrian refugees to return from Lebanon.
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Russia Moves Fast to Deepen Kerch Crisis

Posted on by SeeEU

Russia’s attack on Ukrainian military vessels in the Black Sea marks the first time the Kremlin has staged open aggression against Ukraine since President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea four years ago, and launched a destabilization campaign in the Donbas region.

In the past, the Kremlin has used so-called “little green men” — Russian soldiers without an insignia — to stage provocations or battle Ukrainian forces, denying they are directed by Moscow.

Sunday marked a new departure, however, with the hybrid war being stepped up, a development that risks igniting a broader conflict and spiraling out of control.

Putin power play

So why did the Russian leader decide now to stage such overt aggression — especially at a time when the Russian economy is struggling and could well do without any escalation of sanctions by Western nations? Putin’s move comes just days before he’s due to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump during the G20 summit in Argentina to discuss Syria and the recent U.S. decision to withdraw from a nuclear weapons treaty.

Some Western officials and analysts point to President Putin’s slumping popularity at home, the consequence of unpopular pension reforms, to explain the attack in the Kerch Strait, which links the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and is officially a waterway shared by Russia and Ukraine. They say it is calculated to boost Putin’s approval ratings that are now at a five-year low. 

On Twitter, Alexei Navalny, the prominent Putin critic, said the decision to ram, fire on and seize two gunboats and a tugboat is straight out of the Russian leader’s traditional playbook in which he uses foreign adventures to divert domestic attention and encourage a siege mentality, whereby Russians feel Western nations are ganging up on them. 

“We can expect 30 talk shows a day over the next month with discussions of aggressive warmongers from Kyiv,” he tweeted. 

Captured sailors on display

Russia has moved fast to deepen the crisis, say analysts. A court in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, has ordered one of the 24 Ukrainian sailors detained by Russia to be held for two months and Russian media are reporting the man faces a charge of illegally crossing Russian borders, which carries a sentence of up to six years in prison. The other sailors are likely to face similar court action. 

And the Kremlin moved quickly to blast the Ukrainians for what it paints as aggression against Russia, with state television Tuesday broadcasting interrogations of three of the captured sailors.

“I recognize that the actions of the ships with military hardware of Ukraine’s navy had a provocative character,” one of the sailors, identified as Vladimir Lisov, said in one of the interrogations, which Kyiv claims are being conducted under duress. “I was carrying out an order,” Lisov added. 

Dark intent?

The presence of Ukrainian counterintelligence officers on board the vessels also is being highlighted by the Kremlin and on state media as evidence of Kyiv’s dark intent. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov labeled the whole incident “a dangerous provocation” by the government of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. Russian officials accuse Poroshenko of trying to manufacture a crisis to boost his desperately low poll ratings ahead of next year’s presidential elections, which he appears to be in danger of losing.

The exchange of accusations is par for the course in the long-running conflict between Moscow and Kyiv since the Euro-Maidan uprising led to the 2014 ouster of Ukraine’s pro-Kremlin president, Viktor Yanukovych. 

Certainly Poroshenko has seized on Sunday’s clash, pressing for the imposition of martial law in 10 of the country’s 27 regions, a decisive move that some say may boost his poll standings. Jan Surotchak, senior director for Transatlantic Strategy at the International Republican Institute, a Washington-based democracy-promotion non-profit, acknowledges that Poroshenko could profit from the clash in domestic political terms, “if he is able to focus his allies in the West to be more supportive.”  

But he says, “In the end, of course, that is not what this is about.” Surotchak sees Sunday’s incident as not just being about Putin’s short-term domestic political needs or Poroshenko’s seizing on it to try to improve his own election prospects. “Most importantly what Moscow was trying to achieve is what it has tried to do now for the better part of the last five years, and that is destabilize Ukraine.” 

Western and Ukraine officials say there has been a pattern of heightened Russian activity in the Donbas region, as well as the Sea of Azov for the past few weeks. Speaking three days before the maritime clash, Stepan Poltorak, Ukraine’s defense minister, cautioned that the Donbas conflict was re-entering an “active phase,” saying he expected more open moves by Russia. 

Western officials say they are taking those Ukrainian warnings seriously and acknowledge there has been a ratcheting up by Russia of incidents in the Sea of Azov since Russia completed in May the building of a bridge across the strait linking the Russian mainland to Crimea. Russia has increased sharply the number of armed vessels patrolling the Kerch Strait, and cargo ships trying to reach Ukraine’s Azov ports — Mariupol and Berdyansk — have found themselves subject to more Russian inspections and week-long delays, resulting in a 33 percent decrease in freight traffic.  

West shares blame

Sunday’s incident, Ukrainian officials say, is a direct result of the lack of Western reaction to the unfolding imposition of a de facto sea border, which has been slowly but surely throttling access to the Sea of Azov and the Ukraine’s important Mariupol industrial region. The Kremlin felt emboldened, they say.

How all this will play out when Trump and Putin meet in Buenos Aires later this week isn’t clear. When asked whether it will have any impact on the encounter between the two leaders, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said the clash in the Kerch Strait won’t affect preparations for the meeting.

Putin may be banking, say American officials, on reducing any fallout from the Kerch clash by pledging to enforce U.N. sanctions on North Korea ahead of a planned U.S.-North Korea summit next month, something he was urged to do earlier this month by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence during an exchange at an Asian summit meeting.
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MPs: Kenya Must Pass Women’s Representation Bill or Risk Constitutional Crisis

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Kenyan politicians must pass a bill that would ensure women one-third of seats in parliament — or risk plunging the country into a constitutional crisis, MPs supporting the bill warned Tuesday.

Despite Kenya’s 2010 constitution stating that no more than two-thirds of any elected or appointed body can be of the same gender, women hold 22 percent of seats in the country’s lower house of parliament, and 31 percent in the upper house.

Court rulings since 2012 have directed parliament to pass legislation to enforce the gender rule or risk being dissolved — but previous attempts have failed with female MPs accusing male lawmakers of deliberately blocking efforts.

If parliament is dissolved, a general election would need to be called. Kenya held a controversial, highly polarized and violent election last year.

Amid increased scrutiny from the courts, Kenya’s lower house is expected to vote on a bill Wednesday.

“The truth is we, as parliament, are unconstitutional,” said Rozaah Buyu, representative for the western region of Kisumu.

“What authority do we have to bring others to account when we are not acting within the constitution by disregarding the gender rule?”

The high court in 2017 stated the chief justice can be petitioned to advise the president to dissolve parliament if a law was not enacted, said Buyu, who is vice president of the Kenya Women Parliamentary Association.

Time to be counted

Kenya’s economy has grown on average by 5 percent annually over the last decade, but the benefits have not been equally shared. Women and girls remain disadvantaged socially, economically and politically.

Women make up only a third of the 2.5 million people employed in the formal sector, says the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. And while women provide 80 percent of Kenya’s farm labor, they own 1 percent of agricultural land.

The percentage of women in Kenya’s parliament is lower than its east African neighbors such as Ethiopia, South Sudan, Burundi and Rwanda, according to Inter-Parliamentary Union.

Gender experts say women in politics around the world face a barrage of challenges — from physical and sexual violence to a lack of money to fund their campaigns. Quotas, they say, help create a more level playing field and ensure their voice is represented.

The bill, which was introduced in parliament last week, provides for special seats to be created if elections fail to achieve required numbers, with candidates from the under-represented gender nominated to fill them.

Backed by President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga, many MPs have voiced support for the bill, citing recent moves in Ethiopia where half the cabinet, the election chief, head of the supreme court and the president are women.

‘Slay queens’ and sexist slurs

But the bill faces stiff resistance.

Previous attempts to vote on a bill have flopped, largely due to quorum hitches where MPs have failed to be present, and there is a fear that this could happen again.

Gender rights experts say critics have also whipped up opposition by using populist comments and sensationalist sexist slurs, to portray the draft legislation as a “womens’ bill.”

Positions, they add, will be given to mistresses of senior politicians or “slay queens” — a slang term used to describe a beautiful woman who only dates wealthy men — rather than based on merit.

One MP suggested women who are nominated for parliamentary seats undergo an “integrity test” where their children’s DNA be checked to ensure they are all of the same father.

Gender rights experts say this has fueled public misconceptions about the bill — resulting in a debate which has been dominated by sexism instead of facts.

“There is a misunderstanding by citizens that gender is women, and the bill is meant to favor women in political representation,” said Zebib Kavuma, head of U.N. Women in Kenya.

“This provision could be men or women, like in the case of Rwanda where currently more men are nominated to achieve the threshold of two-thirds. Passing the gender rule is important for posterity. Men may need the law in some years to come.”

Male opponents have also argued that creating additional parliamentary seats would cost Kenyan taxpayers millions of dollars in extra salaries, but campaigners cite studies from the Institute of Economic Affairs which estimate the cost per person to be around six shillings ($.06) annually.

“All of these are just side shows of irrational patriarchy,” said Marilyn Kamuru, a prominent lawyer and gender rights commentator.

“Politicians are trying to rile up anti-women feeling as a basis to justify their voting no. That’s why they don’t want to have a discussion about the fact that this bill is a constitutional requirement.”
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Tunisians Stage 1st Arab Protests against Visiting Saudi Crown Prince

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Hundreds of Tunisians staged the first protests of the Arab world against Saudi Arabia’s crown prince as he arrived on a visit on Tuesday, denouncing him as a murderer involved in the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The protests were a rare occurrence for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler who faces no overt criticism at home and who received lavish receptions earlier in his tour in visits to Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.

Since the 2011 “Arab Spring” uprising, which unseated several entrenched rulers in the region and triggered turmoil, Tunisia has undergone a democratic transition and is one of the few Arab countries to allow protests.

Prince Mohammed was welcomed by Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi on arrival at Tunis airport, the presidency said, and the two went into talks shortly afterwards at Carthage Palace.

The crown prince told Tunisian state television that Saudi Arabia has long had good relations with Tunisia, adding, “I cannot come to North Africa without visiting Tunisia…Tunisia’s president is like my father.”

A Tunisian presidency statement issued later said Prince Mohammed and Essebsi reviewed ways to improve cooperation on the “economy and finance, investment promotion and security and military cooperation to counter extremism and terrorism.”

The mood in the streets was less friendly. In a second day of demonstrations against Prince Mohammed, hundreds of protesters marched along central Habib Bourguiba avenue in Tunis, scene of the mass protests that toppled autocratic president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011.

They chanted “the murderer is not welcome in Tunisia” and “shame on Tunisia’s rulers” for receiving the crown prince.

The killing of Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and a critic of the crown prince, at Riyadh’s consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2 has frayed Saudi Arabia’s relations with the West and tarnished Prince Mohammed’s image abroad.

Saudi Arabia has said the prince, heir to the throne of the world’s top oil exporter, had no prior knowledge of the murder.

After offering numerous contradictory explanations, Riyadh said last month that Khashoggi had been killed and his body dismembered when negotiations to persuade him to return to Saudi Arabia failed.

Protesters raised a large poster which depicted the Tunisian president pouring water on the bloodied hands of the Saudi crown prince – suggesting Tunisian complicity in washing away guilt.

Demonstrators also called for an end to the Saudi-led military campaign in neighboring Yemen, which was launched by Prince Mohammed in his role as defense minister in 2015.

The protests were in sharp contrast with earlier parts of the crown prince’s tour of allied countries in the region.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi underlined the strength of Cairo’s ties with Riyadh and called Saudi Arabia’s security and stability “an inseparable part of Egypt’s national security.”

Democratic Tunisia diverges from Saudis

Tunisian journalists on Monday put up a huge banner at their union showing the prince with a chainsaw, which Turkish sources have said was used to dismember Khashoggi in Istanbul. It read: “No to the pollution of the Tunisian revolution.”

In an apparent attempt to avoid embarrassing the prince, the presidency only invited photographers to cover his visit. It will not hold a news conference, a usual event at top visits.

Last week Essebsi adviser Nourredine Ben Ticha said the truth about the killing of Khashoggi must be established but the incident should not be used to harm the kingdom’s stability.

Tunisia and Saudi Arabia have very different political systems. The kingdom is an absolute monarchy while Tunisia has been holding free elections since 2011 and agreed three years later on a constitution guaranteeing fundamental rights.

Tunisia was a strong Saudi ally under Ben Ali but ties have since been strained at times. The kingdom granted exile to Ben Ali after he flew to Jeddah on the Red Sea following his ouster, resisting calls by some Tunisian parties to hand him over.

Another irritant is that moderate Islamists have been sharing power with secularists in Tunisia since 2011. Some critics have likened the Tunisian Ennahda party to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Saudi Arabia.

In contrast, Tunisia has since 2011 expanded cooperation with Qatar, with which Saudi Arabia and three other Arab states severed trade and transport ties in June 2017. The four accused Doha of supporting terrorism and Iran,  charges Doha denies.

Tunisia also has strong ties with Turkey, whose relations with Saudi Arabia have been strained by the Khashoggi killing.

The crown prince departed Tunisia on Tuesday evening after a visit of several hours, Al Arabiya television said, and is expected to fly on to a G20 summit in Argentina.
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Russian Bank: We Assigned $12 Billion ‘Loan’ to Poor African State by Mistake

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The impoverished state of Central African Republic landed a windfall on Tuesday, at least on paper, when Russian state bank VTB reported it had lent the country $12 billion — but the bank then said it was a clerical error and there was no such loan.

The loan was mentioned in a quarterly VTB financial report published by the Russian central bank. The report included a table listing the outstanding financial claims that VTB group had on dozens of countries as of Oct. 1 this year.

In the table next to Central African Republic was the sum of $12 billion — more than six times the country’s annual economic output.

When asked about the data by Reuters, the bank said the loan to the former French colony did not, in reality, exist.

“VTB bank has no exposure of this size to CAR. Most likely, this is a case of an operational mistake in the system when the countries were being coded,” the lender said in a statement sent to Reuters.

VTB did not say who was responsible for the mistake or how such a large figure could have been published without being spotted.

CAR government spokesman Ange Maxime Kazagui, when asked about the Russian data, said: “I don’t have that information. But it doesn’t sound credible because $11 billion is beyond the debt capacity of CAR.”

“We are members of the IMF (International Monetary Fund). When a member of the IMF wants to take on debt … it has to discuss that with the IMF.”

There was no indication in the data published by the Russian central bank of who was the recipient of the loan, the purpose of the loan, or when it was issued and on what terms.

CAR is a nation of 5 million people emerging from sectarian conflict, with a gross domestic product of $1.95 billion, according to the World Bank.

Russia has built up security and business ties with CAR in the past few years.

Muscling aside former colonial power France, Moscow has provided arms and contractors to the Central African Republic military, and a Russian national security advisor to President Faustin-Archange Touadera.

 

 
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Slovenia Appoints First Female Army Chief 

Posted on by SeeEU

Slovenia appointed Maj. Gen. Alenka Ermenc as chief of the army, the government said Tuesday, making her the only woman in charge of a NATO country’s military. 

Ermenc is the first female chief of the general staff of the Slovenian army. She takes over from Alan Geder on Wednesday. 

Ermenc has served in the army since 1991, the year Slovenia declared independence from Yugoslavia. She studied at the Royal College of Defense Studies and King’s College University, both in London. 

Her promotion came after a change of government in September, when center-left Prime Minister Marjan Sarec took power following a June general election. 
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Saudi Crown Prince Visiting Arab Allies 

Posted on by SeeEA

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is making a high-profile visit to Riyadh’s major Arab allies before heading on to the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires at the end of the week.   

After visiting Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, the crown prince went to Tunisia, where protesters denounced him for his alleged involvement in the killing of a Saudi journalist. 

Members of civil society and women’s groups chanted slogans against Crown Prince Mohammed in the center of the Tunisian capital, Tunis. They blamed him for the brutal killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi intelligence agents at Riyadh’s consulate in Istanbul last month. Saudi Arabia has said the crown prince had no prior knowledge of the killing. 

The crown prince’s visit Tuesday went ahead, despite calls from Tunisian journalists to cancel his invitation.  Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi defended his decision to welcome Crown Prince Mohammed. 

In Cairo, small crowds of Egyptian supporters chanted slogans in favor of Crown Prince Mohammed, as government officials, including President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, gave him a strong welcome, in what was being billed as his sixth visit to the country since his father became king in 2015. 

The crown prince last visited Egypt in March to sign economic agreements, including those pertaining to a bridge between the Sinai and the Saudi mainland, a joint economic zone, and efforts to join the electricity grids of both countries. 

The Saudi daily Asharqalawsat said Riyadh was the largest Arab investor in Egypt, with trade between the two countries surpassing $7.3 billion in 2017. Cairo and Riyadh also cooperate militarily in patrolling vital shipping lanes in the Red Sea and in Yemen.  Egypt does not, however, have ground troops in Yemen. 

Washington-based Gulf analyst Theodore Karasik told VOA that Crown Prince Mohammed’s visit was aimed at garnering geopolitical support for Riyadh in regional conflicts, including the economic embargo against Iran. 

“The visit to Tunisia is really about Iran and guaranteeing that Tunisia is on Riyadh’s side when it comes to confronting Iran,” he said.  

Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at American University of Beirut, said the Saudi crown prince’s visit to the region was aimed at telling his domestic audience that he was given a strong welcome by the kingdom’s Arab allies. 

“The Saudi media will focus on the official reception,” Khashan said. “As far as [the crown prince] is concerned, he will be sufficiently satisfied with the outcome of the visit.  Civil society does not count in the Arab region, so he is not really expecting a warm reception by the people.  He is focused on the ruling elite with whom he shares the same political values.” 

Khashan said he thought the crown prince was likely to survive the political storm that followed the killing of Khashoggi and that the issue was gradually losing steam in the Arab media. He noted that many pundits predicted the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after conflict broke out in 2011, but the Syrian president went on to survive the storm. 
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