The U.N.’s humanitarian chief warned Friday that aid workers are “losing the fight against famine” in war-torn Yemen.

“The position has deteriorated in an alarming way in recent weeks,” Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock told the Security Council. “We may now be approaching a tipping point, beyond which it will be impossible to prevent massive loss of life as a result of widespread famine across the country.”

The U.N. has been raising alarm bells on the food crisis in Yemen for more than a year. Lowcock said Yemen’s deepening economic troubles have escalated the situation. 

Millions of Yemenis no longer have regular salaries, including public servants who have not been paid in two years. In the past month, the local currency has plunged 30 percent in value, throwing one of the world’s poorest countries into further economic despair. 

“Because almost all the food consumed in Yemen is imported, that translates directly into a sharp increase in the price of food for some 10 million Yemenis who are food insecure but are not reached by the relief operation,” Lowcock said. 

He said humanitarians are starting to see pockets of famine-like conditions, including where people are eating leaves because they have no other food sources.

Aid workers currently assist some 3 million people each month, but Lowcock said they hope to massively expand to reach 8 million this month. But that is a fraction of those in need. The U.N. says 18 million Yemenis are food insecure, and 8 million of them are severely insecure and do not know where their next meal will come from. 

Food insecurity is also being exacerbated by an intensification of fighting around the strategic Red Sea port city of Hodeida. 

Hodeida is a lifeline for Yemen. The country imports 90 percent of its food, fuel and medicines, and 70 percent of those goods come through the city’s port. The Houthis have controlled Hodeida for the last two years and the Saudi-led coalition has stepped up military efforts to break their hold. 

Despite an international arms embargo against the rebels, the coalition accuses them of using the port to smuggle weapons into the country, a charge the Houthis deny. 

“We have to keep all the ports open, we have to keep all the main roads open, we have to keep them functional, we have to keep them safe,” Lowcock told council members. “The lifeline through which the aid operation runs now hangs by a thread.”

The aid effort is well-funded, with $2.6 billion committed this year, including large contributions from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who are conducting the airstrikes. 

The Saudi-led coalition began bombing Houthi rebels in support of the Yemeni government in March 2015. Since then, the U.N. estimates more than 10,000 people have been killed, mostly due to airstrikes.
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Ankara is signaling its readiness to use force against radical groups in the Syrian Idlib enclave as part of a deal struck with Moscow, which has been pressuring the Turkish government to comply with terms of an accord made between the Russian and Turkish presidents.

Earlier this month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, agreed to create a demilitarized zone (DMZ) in the rebel-controlled Idlib enclave.

The deal, heralded as a diplomatic triumph by Ankara, averted a Syrian regime offensive backed by Russian forces against the last rebel bastion. With 3 million people trapped in the region, aid groups have been warning of a humanitarian catastrophe.

Ankara now faces the formidable task of removing radical Islamist groups, along with the heavy weapons of rebel forces, from a 15- to 20-kilometer zone by October 15.

“It is one thing to speak in the chambers of the palaces to hold press conferences and so forth. It’s another thing to fight on the ground,” former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen said. “Especially because of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham elements, which are a 30,000-strong jihadi force in west Idlib, and especially near the Turkish border and within Idlib town itself, what will they decide? Will they agree on this solution? This is the question.”  

While addressing reporters Friday, Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin indicated a readiness to use force against radical groups if they don’t agree to leave the DMZ.

“Persuasion, pacification, other measures, whatever is necessary,” Kalin said. Last month, Ankara designated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, (formally called al-Nusra), as a terrorist organization.

Tall order

Analysts say Ankara will be careful to avoid a military confrontation and will look to its influence on the rebel opposition.

“The leverage Turkey has is that Turkey is still supporting the Free Syrian Army and many other groups. From the very beginning, they have looked to Turkey for support in fighting [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad,” according to international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

“But the radical groups linked to Daesh [Islamic State], al-Qaida, al-Nusra,” Bagci continued, “whether Turkey will be effective with those groups, I have some doubts. But Russia is expecting Turkey to get full success to convince all of them to leave, which is very, very difficult, I would say.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stepped up the pressure on Ankara. “Nusra Front terrorists should leave this demilitarized zone by mid-October; all heavy weaponry should be withdrawn from there,” Lavrov told a press conference Friday.

Critics of the Idlib deal insist Moscow has trapped Ankara into committing itself to remove or eradicate radical groups from the DMZ, which carries the risk of Turkey being sucked into a conflict with the jihadis.

However, the Idlib deal gives Ankara an opportunity to strengthen its hand in Syria.

“Turkey will definitely increase the number of military personnel in [Idlib] and its influence [in Syria],” said Bagci. “It [Turkey’s military presence] will become a part of the negotiations process in the future with Russia. Definitely, Turkey is using the opportunity, since it’s available, to get more military personnel there and keep them there longer.”

Under a previous agreement between Moscow and Tehran, Ankara established 12 military observation posts across Idlib. The outposts were part of a deal to create a de-escalation zone for Syrian rebel forces and their families. The threat of a Syrian regime offensive against the region prompted the Turkish military to bolster its presence around the outposts.

‘Twin objectives’

Analysts suggest a further consolidation of Turkey’s military presence in Idlib, along with Turkish forces’ current control of a large swath of northern Syria, will strengthen Ankara’s efforts to secure its Syrian goals.

“Turkey wants to create a situation in Syria so that these neighboring regions to Turkey that are controlled by pro-Turkish elements continue [to be controlled by them] so that there is no security threat to Turkey,” said Sinan Ulgen head of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, or Edam.

“Secondly, as a result of a political settlement,” he continued, “enough of [a] security guarantee would be provided so that some of the Syrian refugees [in Turkey] can go back to their homes. They are the twin objectives of the Turkish government regarding Syria.”

Turkey claims it is hosting more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees. The Idlib deal between Ankara and Moscow at least for now has removed the threat of another significant exodus of refugees into Turkey.

With Lavrov warning the deal is only an “intermediate step,” critics caution the Idlib deal may offer only a reprieve from a Syrian regime offensive against the rebel enclave. As Ankara seems prepared to use the coming weeks to step up its military presence in Idlib, that will bring a heightened risk of confrontation with jihadi groups.

Analysts say such a marked armed presence, however, also likely will enhance Erdogan’s bargaining position the next time he sits down with Putin to discuss the future of Idlib.
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U.S. President Donald Trump returns to the United Nations on Monday for the annual gathering of world leaders. After an international debut last year in which he threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea, many are anxious about what message he may bring this year to the U.N. General Assembly.

Since last September’s war of words with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un — during which Trump memorably called Kim “Rocket Man” and Kim responded from Pyongyang, calling Trump a “dotard” — tensions have cooled dramatically and the two leaders have met amid much fanfare to discuss North Korea’s denuclearization.

This year, however, Iran looks to be in Trump’s sights, with members of his administration ramping up the rhetoric ahead of the General Assembly.​

Tough talk

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Wednesday that the Trump administration was “working to get Iran to behave like a normal nation” and “stop being the world’s largest state sponsor of terror.”

U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley regularly castigates Tehran for its destabilizing role in Syria and Yemen and its support for militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.

“Iran continues to be a problem,” Haley told reporters Thursday. “Every dangerous spot in the world, Iran seems to have their fingerprints in it.”

Earlier this year, Trump announced the United States was withdrawing from the Obama-era 2015 deal to end Iran’s nuclear weapons program and reimposing unilateral sanctions on Tehran. In November, companies doing business with Iran will have to stop or risk being shut out of the U.S. financial system. Washington wants to pressure Tehran back to the negotiating table for a new, broader deal.

Trump will most likely fault Tehran for its destabilizing behavior in the region and disparage the nuclear deal when he addresses the General Assembly early Tuesday. Experts warn the U.S. might find itself somewhat isolated at the gathering.

“The problem for the Trump administration is that many of the U.S.’s allies, including the powers which are signatories to the Iran nuclear deal, they will not join such condemnation,” noted the Middle East Institute’s Ahmad Majidyar. “While these countries share Washington’s concerns about Iran’s controversial ballistic missile program or support for some terrorist and militant groups in the region, they strongly support the nuclear deal and they do not back Washington’s unilateral exit.”

The United States also happens to hold the rotating presidency of the U.N. Security Council this month and is using the opportunity for Trump to chair a meeting Wednesday on nonproliferation. Expect him to talk a lot about Iran.

“I am sure that will be the most-watched Security Council meeting ever,” Haley said in a nod to her boss’s love of good television ratings.

The president took to his favorite communications medium on Friday morning to promote the session, tweeting, “I will Chair the United Nations Security Council meeting on Iran next week!”

​Likely by Trump’s side will be his national security adviser and a former Bush-era U.N. ambassador, John Bolton, who is known for his hard-line views on Iran and his disdain for the United Nations.

“Bolton understands how the U.N. works better than others,” Majidyar said. “He would try to shape the discussion at the U.N. on Iran and also try to use both carrot and stick with its allies to gain their support when it comes to Iran.”

While Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will also be at next week’s General Assembly, a meeting between the two leaders is highly unlikely. But expect Rouhani to counter any criticism from Trump during his own address to the assembly hours after Trump’s speech, and at a news conference on Wednesday.

Talks with North Korea

Denuclearization talks with North Korea will also dominate the week.

The leaders of North and South Korea this week wrapped a three-day summit in Pyongyang and signed a series of agreements, as relations between the two countries continue to improve. But talks between the U.S. and North Korea have stalled since the June Trump-Kim summit in Singapore.

Kim has never attended the General Assembly and will not this year, but Trump will meet Monday with South Korean President Moon Jae-in for a debriefing on the Pyongyang summit.

Pompeo has also invited his North Korean counterpart to meet him in New York.

“This will mark the beginning of negotiations to transform U.S.-DPRK relations through the process of rapid denuclearization of North Korea, to be completed by January 2021,” Pompeo said in a statement Wednesday, setting out a timeline for completing Pyongyang’s denuclearization.

Pompeo also plans to chair a ministerial-level meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Thursday to discuss North Korea.

“It’s a chance for us to look at what we’ve achieved in progress on North Korea,” Haley told reporters this week. “It’s a chance to look at the commitment we want on peace. But it’s also a chance to have the conversation that if we don’t enforce the sanctions, all of this can go away.”

Multilateralism in peril?

In the year since he made his U.N. debut, Trump has cut funding to the world organization, withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal, and quit U.N. bodies, including the Human Rights Council. He has also had difficult outings at gatherings of G-7 leaders and NATO.

“I think that a lot of leaders are going to be pretty cautious with President Trump,” said Richard Gowan, senior fellow at the U.N. University Centre for Policy Research. “The Europeans have been quite burned at a number of recent summits.”

Without naming names, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently told reporters that “multilateralism is under attack from many different directions precisely when we need it most.” He said he would use his meetings to press for a renewed commitment to a “rules-based global order and to the United Nations.”
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