Emissions Goals at Risk as ‘Clunker’ Cars Flood Africa, S. Asia

African and South Asian nations could miss national targets to curb greenhouse gas emissions unless rich countries stop using them as dumping grounds for millions of polluting old cars, a study has warned.

The report by the Center for Science and Environment (CSE) said the United States, Japan and European Union countries had for years been exporting old, used cars — or clunkers — to nations such as Nigeria and Bangladesh.

The secondhand vehicles, which should have been scrapped under domestic regulations, are instead being used by poorer nations where they are contributing to carbon emissions, said CSE, a New Delhi think tank.

Weak environmental regulations in poorer economies and stronger emissions regulations in exporting countries are among the factors “inciting this unregulated global trade in clunkers,” Anumita Roychowdhury of CSE said this week.

“If this continues unchecked, without the exporting countries sharing the responsibility of addressing this problem, the poorer countries will not be able to meet their clean air and climate mitigation goals,” she said during a news conference on Facebook Live.

There are about 2 billion vehicles globally, of which 2 percent, or 40 million, are deemed unworthy for road use in developed nations annually, according to the report.

Many of them end up in countries such as Kenya, Nigeria and Ethiopia. Ninety percent of Nigeria’s 3.5 million cars are imported secondhand vehicles, according to data from the management consultancy firm Deloitte.

​Growing source of pollution

These old, poorly maintained and often malfunctioning vehicles become energy guzzlers and emit high levels of heat-trapping gases, CSE said.

Even though the level of emissions in less developed nations is lower than the world average, clunkers are a rapidly rising source of pollution, added the report. If left uncontrolled, clunkers could jeopardize climate goals set by poorer nations on reducing greenhouse gas emissions as part of an international pact to slow down global warming.

The cars are also contributing to high levels of air pollution in cities like Dhaka and Lagos, increasing the risk of lung diseases, respiratory illnesses and cancer, it added.

Car manufacturers should be responsible for taking back the vehicles, recycling or disposing of them, while authorities in higher-income countries should put in place export regulations.

Strong exit rules are needed to verify, inspect, certify and codify vehicles before export, and all vehicles with compromised emissions and safety features need to be barred from export, the study said.

Many lower-income nations are taking steps to control the sector — from reducing their dependency on used-car imports by promoting their own automobile manufacturing sector to raising import duties on big, fuel-guzzling vehicles.

But experts from the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) said many lower-income countries still lack a comprehensive set of policies to keep a check on imported clunkers.

“Our observation is that countries that lack policies and incentives to attract cleaner vehicles are importing inefficient vehicles that emit greenhouse gases above the global averages,” said Jane Akumu from UNEP’s Air Quality and Mobility Unit.

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Africa’s Richest Man Arranges $4.5B of Financing for Oil Refinery

Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has arranged more than $4.5 billion in debt financing for his Nigerian oil refinery project and aims to start production in early 2020, he told Reuters.

Dangote, who built his fortune in cement, is building the world’s largest single oil refinery with capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to help to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum.

Despite being a crude oil exporter, Nigeria imports the bulk of its petroleum because of a lack of domestic refining capacity.

Lenders would commit about $3.15 billion, with the World Bank’s private sector arm providing $150 million, Dangote said, adding that he was investing more than 60 percent from his own cash flow.

Dangote Group has said that Standard Chartered Bank was arranging funds for the project.

“We will end up spending between $12 billion to $14 billion. The funding is going to come through equity, commercial bank loans, export credit agencies and developmental banks,” Dangote said in an interview in Lagos on Tuesday.

“Hopefully, we will finish mechanical (construction) by next year and products will start coming out in the first quarter of 2020.”

Nigeria’s central bank would provide guarantees for about 575 billion naira in local currency for 10 years, with African Development Bank providing a $300 million loan. Trade banks from China, India and some European countries are also in the mix, Dangote said.

The planned refinery and petrochemical complex is expected to account for half of Dangote’s sprawling assets when it is finished next year.

Last week Dangote signed a loan of $650 million with the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) for the project.

Dangote said he was looking to acquire more oilfields as his focus shift towards the oil sector to feed the refinery.

Outside of oil, Dangote said he is also eyeing English soccer team Arsenal.

“We will go after Arsenal from 2020 … even if somebody buys, we will still go after it,” he told Reuters, referring to reports that Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov was looking to sell his 30 percent stake in the club.

Dangote added that the need for healthy cash flow until completion of the refinery project rules out a move for Arsenal before then.

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Ivory Coast Cashew Sales Slump on Low World Prices

Cashew nut farmers and exporters in Ivory Coast are seeing a slump in sales as Vietnamese exporters try to get out of contracts following a drop in world prices, an official said on Tuesday.

Ivory Coast is the world’s top cashew nut producer with output of 770,000 tonnes expected this year. Exporters in Vietnam, which has a major cashew processing industry, buy 70 percent of that production.

International prices for cashews have dropped by nearly half since March after consumers in the United States and Saudi Arabia objected to high prices. In response, exporters want to pay less than the state-imposed price for this season.

“The contracts that the exporters signed have been called into question,” Adama Coulibaly, the general director of Ivory Coast’s cotton and cashew council, told Reuters. “The Vietnamese processors have seen their margin erode.”

Coulibaly said Ivorian authorities were in discussions with the Vietnamese exporters to insist that they respect the contracts signed in February at the beginning of the cashew-growing season.

According to farmers and exporters, between 150,000 and 200,000 tons of cashew nuts have not been sold because exporters have not been willing to buy at the fixed price.

At a warehouse in the commercial capital Abidjan, thousands of bags full of raw cashews lay on the floor awaiting buyers.

Farmers, meanwhile, warned that they would consider switching to other crops if the current impasse persisted.

Ivory Coast’s cashew sector employs about 450,000 growers and has been an important source of economic growth since the end of a brief civil war in 2011.

Authorities are hoping to increase the country’s processing capacity from the current 100,000 tonnes per year to at least 300,000 tons by 2020 in order to make the sector less vulnerable to international market swings, Coulibaly said.

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2 With Alleged IS Ties Returned to US, Face Prosecution

At least two Americans believed to have joined the Islamic State terror group have been brought back to the United States to face charges.

Senior administration officials confirmed Tuesday that Ibraheem Musaibli of Dearborn, Michigan, and Samantha ElHassani of Indiana, arrived on U.S. soil Tuesday after U.S. forces escorted them from Syria.

In a statement, the Justice Department said Musaibli, “a natural-born U.S. citizen,” would be arraigned in federal court in Detroit on Wednesday.

‘Material support to ISIS’

Musaibli is charged with attempting to provide material support to IS, fighting with the terror group from April 2015 until his capture by U.S.-backed Syrian forces in June.

“Musaibli’s alleged provision of material support to ISIS put the United States at risk and may have endangered the lives of countless innocent people,” John Demers, assistant attorney general for national security, said in a statement that used an acronym for the militant group.

“The indictment in this case serves as a reminder of the danger posed by those who travel overseas to join forces with ISIS,” Timothy Slater, FBI special agent in charge, added.

ElHassani has been charged with making false statements to the FBI and will appear in federal court in Hammond, Indiana, at a later date, the Justice Department said Tuesday.

She was accompanied by her four children, two of whom were born in Syria, an official said. Her children are in the care of the Indiana Department of Child Services, a Justice Department statement said.

In media interviews done while in Kurdish custody, ElHassani said her husband, Moussa ElHassani, a Moroccan national, tricked her into accompanying him to Syria while they were vacationing in Turkey in 2015.

“We ended up in Raqqa,” she said in an interview with Frontline and the BBC. “The first thing I say to him is, ‘You’re crazy, and I’m leaving.’ And he said, with a big smile on his face, ‘Go ahead. You can try, but you won’t make it.’ ”

Moussa ElHassani was reportedly killed while fighting for IS. Samantha ElHassani said she and her four children eventually left Raqqa along with two Yazidi slave girls and ended up in a Kurdish detention camp.

In various media interviews, she has described her time in IS-held territory as harrowing, telling of failed escape attempts.

Her eldest son, Matthew, 10, was featured in an IS propaganda video in which he threatened attacks on the West.

According to a report earlier this year by George Washington University’s Program on Extremism, about 70 Americans have traveled to Iraq and Syria and have affiliated with IS or other jihadist groups since 2011.

Of those, 24 are believed to be dead, more than 14 have been apprehended, and the fates of a couple dozen others are still unknown.

European nations

U.S. officials have been pushing for European countries to take back nationals who left to fight with IS and prosecute them, but many have refused.

Earlier Tuesday, a French air force general serving with the anti-IS coalition in Iraq said his government’s position had not changed.

“It is quite clear. The government of France has said they don’t want these people back,” said Brigadier General Frederic Parisot, who also serves as the coalition’s director of civil-military operations.

Despite pushing for countries to take back their foreign fighters, U.S. policy on what to do with Americans suspected of fighting for IS has been less than clear.

In June, the U.S. announced it would release an American citizen suspected of being a member of IS in Syria. The Justice Department said it had given the man, who holds dual U.S.-Saudi citizenship, a choice of being released “either in a town or outside an Internally Displaced Persons camp.” But that decision has been put on hold, pending further legal action, according to court filings.

The American Civil Liberties Union, which has been representing the man, slammed the decision to release him in what it described as a war zone.

Department of Justice correspondent Masood Farivar contributed to this report.

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Heart of Yosemite Park to Close as Crews Battle Blaze

The heart of Yosemite National Park, where throngs of tourists are awe-struck by cascading waterfalls and towering granite features like El Capitan and Half Dome, will be closed as firefighters try to corral a huge wildfire just to the west that has cast a smoky pall and threatened the park’s forest, officials said Tuesday.

Yosemite Valley will be closed for at least four days beginning at noon Wednesday, along with a winding, mountainous, 20-mile (32-kilometer) stretch of State Route 41, park spokesman Scott Gediman said.

At least a thousand campground and hotel bookings will be canceled — to say nothing of the impact on day visitors, park workers and small businesses along the highway, Gediman said.

“We’re asking people here tonight to leave tomorrow morning,” he said. “And anyone that’s incoming tomorrow will get an email or phone call stating that their reservation is canceled.”

The last time the 7.5-mile-long (12-kilometer-long) valley was closed because of fire was 1990, he said.

Yosemite wasn’t under imminent danger from the Ferguson fire, officials were quick to point out. Authorities decided on the closure to allow crews to perform protective measures like burning away brush along roadways without having to deal with traffic in the park that welcomes 4 million visitors annually.

Yosemite Valley is the centerpiece of the visitor experience, offering views of landmarks such as Half Dome, Sentinel Dome, Bridal Veil Fall, El Capitan and Yosemite Falls. The glacial valley’s grand vista of waterfalls and shear granite faces has been obscured by a choking haze of smoke from a nearby fire.

Visitors are advised to “limit activity during the periods of poor air quality,” the park said in a statement. “Some facilities and services are closed or diminished.”

Over nearly two weeks, flames have churned through more than 57 square miles (147.6 square kilometers) of timber in steep terrain of the Sierra Nevada just west of the park. The fire was 25 percent contained Tuesday morning.

Mandatory evacuations are in place in several communities, while others have been told to get ready to leave if necessary.

More than 3,300 firefighters are working the fire, aided by 16 helicopters. One firefighter was killed July 14, and six others have been injured.

Gediman suggested valley visitors divert to Tuolumne Meadows, on Yosemite’s northern edge, or to Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks to the south.

“There are wonderful places to visit in the region, so we’re asking people to consider alternative plans,” he said.

In the state’s far north, a nearly 4-square-mile (10.3-square-kilometer) wildfire has forced the evacuation of French Gulch, a small Shasta County community that dates to the Gold Rush.

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US Envoy on Helsinki: No ‘Gifts to Russia at Ukraine’s Expense’

The top U.S. official for Ukraine negotiations doubled down on recent assurances from the State Department and White House that President Donald Trump did not reach any agreements on Ukraine during last week’s two-hour private meeting with his Russian counterpart in Helsinki, Finland.

Russian President Vladimir Putin last week told a gathering of diplomats in Moscow that he and Trump discussed the possibility of an internationally supervised referendum in pro-Russian separatist regions of eastern Ukraine, a claim later reiterated by the Kremlin’s ambassador to the U.S.

In an exclusive interview with VOA’s Ukrainian service, Kurt Volker, U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations, said that Kremlin remarks about the referendum were not only misleading but also blatantly implausible.

“There was no move toward recognition of Russia’s claimed annexation of Crimea. No support for a referendum. No movement toward Russia’s position on a protection force for [Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe] monitors that would effectively divide the country,” said Volker, referring to Russia’s controversial September 2017 U.N. proposal.

Because referendums aren’t part of the 2015 Minsk agreement, which aims to end the conflict, secure a cease-fire and pave the way for regional elections, Volker said any direct vote on secession from Kyiv would lack the necessary legal framework.

“So, a lot of things that people were worried about or had predicted might happen [in Helsinki] did not happen. So, I don’t think there’s really any basis to be worried here,” he said, noting that the administration has continued to maintain sanctions on Russia in concert with European allies and approved weapons sales to Kyiv.

The Pentagon, he added, recently unveiled plans for a new military financing package for the occupied Eastern European country.

“Let me just say this — that on all of the issues that Ukrainians would care about, nothing was given away,” he said. “No handing over of gifts to Russia at Ukraine’s expense.”

Volker’s comments supplemented initial reactions by Garrett Marquis, U.S. National Security Council spokesman, who said the White House was “not considering” supporting a referendum in eastern Ukraine, and a statement by U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert, who said an eastern Ukraine referendum “would have no legitimacy.”

The comments by the trio of U.S. officials followed days of speculation about what was discussed at the rare one-on-one meeting between the U.S. and Russian leaders with only their translators present.

Trump has been on the defensive over the summit since returning from Helsinki, especially during a key moment when he was asked about Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election as Putin stood beside him.

This story originated in VOA’s Ukrainian service.

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Recovery of US Troops’ Remains in N. Korea Complicated by Cash, Politics

When North Korean leader Kim Jong Un agreed in June to help return the remains of American troops killed in the 1950-53 Korean War, it was seen as one of the more attainable goals to come out of his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump.

American officials expect North Korea to hand over around 50 sets of remains in coming days or weeks, but the drawn-out process of negotiations to get to this point highlights the complications involved in the issue.

At the heart of the difficulty, former officials involved in previous recovery missions say, are likely demands from North Korea for cash compensation, as well as the unsolved tensions over the North’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile arsenal.

More than 7,700 U.S. troops who fought in the Korean War remain unaccounted for, with about 5,300 of those lost in what is now North Korea, according to the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency (DPAA), the U.S. military agency tasked with tracking down prisoners of war and troops missing in action.

The Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, leaving the United States and North Korea still technically at war.

Soon after the June summit, Trump announced North Korea had returned the remains of 200 soldiers that had already been found, but this has yet to take place and negotiations over the actual handing over of the remains have dragged on.

Trump told an audience of veterans on Tuesday that he hoped “fallen warriors” would begin to come home “very soon.”

Bill Richardson, a former U.S. diplomat with experience negotiating with North Korea, including during the recovery of the remains of seven Americans in 2007, said Pyongyang was using the issue as “a bargaining chip.”

“They’re stalling,” he told Reuters. “I think in the end the North Koreans will turn over the majority of the remains that they have — but it will have a price. Not just a financial price.”

Remains returned

Between the 1990s and 2005, more than 400 caskets of remains found in North Korea were returned to the United States, and the bodies of some 330 Americans were accounted for, according to the DPAA.

Decades-old remains that North Korea has handed over in the past have not always been identifiable as U.S. troops.

The U.S. and North Korea worked together on so-called joint field activities (JFAs) to recover remains from 1996-2005, until Washington halted operations, expressing concerns about the safety of its personnel.

A Congressional Research Service (CRS) report said the United States paid $28 million to North Korea for assistance in the effort.

“To the best of my knowledge, it was never based on a per body calculation. Payments were made in support of each field mission — each joint recovery operation,” said Frank Jannuzi, a former Democratic Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer focusing on East Asian and Pacific affairs. Payments were to compensate North Korea for direct expenses incurred such as fuel costs, disruption of agricultural planting, or equipment costs, he said.

In 2011, President Barack Obama’s administration agreed with Pyongyang to restart recovery missions, offering to pay $5,669,160 in “compensation” for services provided by North Korea.

Those planned missions never happened, however, as Washington called off the deal after North Korea tested a rocket in early 2012, said Paul Cole, author of POW/MIA Accounting.

“If the past is any indicator, the [North Koreans] are demanding upfront deliveries of food, fuel and at least $5 million in cash,” Cole told Reuters. “In the era of ‘maximum pressure,’ the dilemma for the Trump administration is whether to give the [North Koreans] massive amounts of food, fuel, trucks, SUVs and millions in cash, or cancel the deal.”

Former officials say typically North Korea has not asked for compensation when it unilaterally returns remains it recovers, such as the roughly 200 currently being discussed.

But if the United States hopes to send its own teams into North Korea, there will likely be a cost.

Asked whether the cost of future joint field activities would be similar to what was paid in the past, the Pentagon’s DPAA Public Affairs Office said: “As of yet, there are no JFAs scheduled in North Korea so we cannot speculate on what such activities may cost.”

The U.S. State Department did not have an immediate comment on the negotiations, but Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week North Korea had committed to return the first remains “in the next couple of weeks.”

According to CRS, the United States also paid for recovery operations in Vietnam. As with North Korea, critics complained the Vietnamese government charged “extraordinarily high fees for providing support … and that the services received are by no means as lavish as the bills presented indicate.”

South Korea’s former vice minister of foreign affairs and trade, Kim Sung-han, said Pyongyang would likely want to use the return of remains to improve its relations with Washington, while avoiding addressing more touchy subjects such as denuclearization.

“North Korea wants the war declared ended sooner rather than later, so trust can be built and progress on its international standing can be made,” he said, adding that any “reimbursements” were likely to violate sanctions.

Besides being politically sensitive, however, handing the North Korean government stacks of cash offers no guarantee that authenticated U.S. servicemen’s remains would be recovered, Jannuzi said.

“We might spend a million dollars and come up with nothing.”

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US Actions During Indonesia’s Democratic Transition Outlined

Newly declassified files from the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta from 1997 to 1999 provide fresh insight into American foreign policy in Indonesia during its tumultuous transition from the Suharto military dictatorship to fledgling democracy, as well as into the Asian financial crisis that swept the region around the same time.

The roughly 500 documents were declassified before being published by the nonprofit National Security Archive at George Washington University. Last fall, the archive published thousands of declassified files from the Jakarta embassy in the 1960s, when the Indonesian military killed up to 1 million suspected communists and leftists with material support from the U.S.

The major takeaways from this batch of files, which corroborate and fill out the existing historical record, are that the U.S. supported the Suharto military government until it collapsed in 1998 and that Washington “played a fairly decisive role in convincing Suharto to sign off on the [International Monetary Fund]’s structural adjustment program, which many scholars believe was responsible for the ouster of Suharto,” said Dr. Bradley Simpson, a University of Connecticut professor and specialist on U.S. foreign relations who leads the declassification effort.

Clinton-era foreign policy

The new cache of documents underscores how then-President Bill Clinton pledged his support for the Suharto government despite mounting evidence that it was involved in human rights abuses.

“Your personal leadership has produced unprecedented economic growth and prosperity for Indonesia and its people. I am convinced you can get through this present difficulty,” were the words of Clinton, according to a transcript of his phone call with Suharto on February 13, 1998, from Camp David, about three months before the longtime ruler would be deposed.

“These documents show that the U.S. viewed the Indonesian military as a stabilizing force, even though they were well aware of the activities of the Special Forces in spring 1998,” Simpson said. This was when the military brutally crushed students’ anti-Suharto protests and kidnapped pro-democracy activists, some of whom are still missing today.

“It was also the Clinton administration that put the final kibosh on Suharto’s proposal to create a currency board that would essentially artificially stabilize the value of the [Indonesian] rupiah rather than letting it float and continue to get pounded in international currency markets,” Simpson said.

“I have consulted with the IMF and G-7 countries and everyone seems to believe that if you implement a currency board, you could put at risk all the progress you have achieved,” Clinton told Suharto during the same phone call.

In 1998, Indonesia fell victim to the Asian financial crisis, a series of currency devaluations that swept the region starting with Thailand in 1997.

Steve Hanke, an American economics professor who advised Suharto at the time, has alleged that Clinton and the IMF deliberately counseled Indonesia against floating its currency in order to hasten the fall of Suharto. Hanke counseled Suharto to create an orthodox currency board with a fixed exchange rate.

“On the day that news hit the street, the rupiah soared by 28 percent against the U.S. dollar on both the spot and one-year-forward markets,” Hanke wrote. “These developments infuriated the U.S. government and the IMF,” he added, and prompted strong pushback.

Not long after this, the Suharto presidency collapsed.

​Insight on military activity

The documents also shed light on the role in 1998 of former military general Prabowo Subianto, Suharto’s son-in-law, who remains in headlines today as a possible contender in the 2019 presidential election. (Prabowo also ran in 2014 and lost to current President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.)

An embassy cable from August 1998 states that Prabowo would be summoned by a military “honor council” for his role in the kidnapping and torture of student activists. But another cable indicates that U.S. Embassy officials believed that lower-ranking officers would be prosecuted over powerful individuals like Prabowo.

Other documents suggest that some of the ammunition and material support for Kopassus, or special forces, during this period was provided by the United States, corroborating the reports of journalists like Allan Nairn. 

Earlier this year, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis stated that he would explore reopening ties with the controversial military unit, whose alleged human rights abuses in East Timor and against student protesters have never been prosecuted. 

Incomplete effort

The release of the documents is seen as unusual because the papers are so recent. Declassification review is automatic only after 25 years. “These are ahead of the declassification curve,” Simpson said.

Still, there are many more still-classified documents that could shed light on the U.S.’s awareness of and its policy regarding Indonesia’s actions in East Timor, which Jakarta brutally occupied for 22 years, and Aceh, the western province where the military quashed a long-standing separatist movement.

Within Indonesia, the declassified files are being disseminated by Tempo, a prominent investigative magazine that was briefly banned under the Suharto dictatorship.

Today, declassification of federal documents is spearheaded by nonprofits like the National Security Archive, but some past administrations have taken an outsized role in promoting the process.

“It starts all the way back with Clinton,” said Peter Kornbluh, a senior analyst at the archive, circling back to the president who features prominently in this batch of declassified files from Indonesia. “He was known as ‘the declassification president’ for authorizing a number of declassification projects through executive order.”

Such “declassification diplomacy” seems to have paused under the current administration. 

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Former Congolese Warlord Bemba Makes Case to Run for President

Former Congolese warlord and vice president Jean-Pierre Bemba said on Tuesday that he believed he would be the best candidate to represent the opposition in December’s presidential election but that he was open to supporting another candidate.

In his first in-depth public remarks since being acquitted in May on appeal for war crimes at The Hague, Bemba told a news conference in Brussels that standing for president was not an obsession but touted his experience and leadership qualities.

Candidate registration is due to open on Wednesday.

President Joseph Kabila, who has governed since 2001, is barred by term limits from running but has refused to commit publicly to not standing.

That and rising militia violence in Democratic Republic of Congo’s eastern borderlands have raised fears the country could be dragged back to the civil wars of the turn of the century that killed millions, most from hunger and disease.

Kabila’s opponents have struggled to coalesce behind a single standard bearer for the election and Bemba’s release from prison and planned return to Congo next week have further muddied the waters.

Asked why he should be the sole opposition candidate, Bemba cited his “experience, management of men, management of security, of the army and also of economic development.”

“It is not an obsession. It is so that we, the opposition, can win and do everything so that a candidate from the opposition can win by presenting a program that is credible for the population.”

Bemba, who is popular in western Congo, finished runner-up to Kabila in the 2006 election, which touched off days of combat in the capital Kinshasa between militia fighters loyal to him and state troops.

He was arrested in Europe in 2008 and charged with responsibility for murder, rape and pillage committed by fighters he sent to Central African Republic in 2002 to back then-president Ange-Felix Patasse.

The International Criminal Court convicted him in 2016 but an appeals court then ruled in May that he could not be held personally responsible for his fighters’ actions.

Bemba said he would meet with opposition leaders upon arriving in Kinshasa on Aug. 1. Besides Bemba, opposition leaders Moise Katumbi, Felix Tshisekedi, Martin Fayulu and Vital Kamerhe have been nominated by their parties to run for president.

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Egypt’s el-Sissi Opens Power Stations in State Development Drive

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi on Tuesday opened three new power stations built for a total of 6 billion euros ($7 billion) as part of the

country’s development drive.

Acute power shortages in the years immediately following Egypt’s 2011 uprising led to frequent summer blackouts and cuts to industrial output, but the new projects initiated in 2015 are part of an 8 billion-euro deal to supply gas- and wind-power plants to boost electricity generation by 50 percent.

Attending the unveiling of the gas-powered station in the administrative capital, a new city being built as the future government seat east of Cairo, el-Sissi praised Egypt’s ability to meet the electricity needs of the country’s population of nearly 100 million.

“Today is a day of hope,” el-Sissi said. “We have come a long way in one of the most important elements of building and development in the state.”

The 4,800-megawatt plant was one of two built in a joint venture between Siemens and Egypt’s Orascom Construction, Orascom said in a statement, adding that the second project at Burrulus, in the Nile Delta, had

generation capacity of 9,600 MW.

El-Sissi also unveiled a third gas-powered station in Beni Suef, 110 kilometers (68 miles) south of Cairo. That plant also has capacity of 4,800 MW, sufficient to cover the needs of 15 million people, according to the state-run al-Ahram newspaper.

El-Sissi also opened one of the world’s largest wind farms, built at a cost of 12 billion Egyptian pounds ($673 million). 

State media said the Gebel el-Zeit station, located in the Red Sea province, has capacity of 580 MW.

Egypt aims to meet 20 percent of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2022 and up to 40 percent by 2035.

Renewable energy currently covers only about 3 percent of Egypt’s needs.

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Ankara Rules Out Compliance with US Sanctions on Iran

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Tuesday ruled out his country’s compliance with U.S. sanctions on Iran, a move that threatens to exacerbate tensions between the NATO allies.

“We have told them we will not join these sanctions,” said Cavusoglu, referring to a meeting last Friday with senior U.S. officials in Ankara. “While we are explaining why we will not obey these sanctions, we have also expressed that we do not find these U.S. sanctions appropriate.”

Ankara strongly opposes U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose sanctions after pulling out of an international agreement with Iran on its nuclear energy program. Stringent sanctions are to start taking effect at the end of August, with measures against Iranian energy exports beginning in November.

Energy-hungry Turkey is heavily dependent on its Iranian neighbor for oil and natural gas, while Turkish businesses are eyeing Iran as an increasingly important market.

On Friday, Marshall Billingslea, assistant secretary of the Treasury for terrorist financing, visited Ankara to meet with Turkish officials and business representatives. Billingslea described the talks as “positive” and acknowledged the difficulties faced by Turkish companies, but warned, “The Treasury sanctions will be enforced very, very aggressively and very comprehensively.”

Washington says no to any waivers for countries trading with Iran, which puts it on a collision course with Ankara.

“We’ve seen this in the past. Turkey will not comply with U.S. sanctions. It will not stop importing Iranian gas and oil,” said Sinan Ulgen, head of the Istanbul-based Edam research institution. “Maybe the Turkish banks will be more careful because of what happened to Halkbank, but that’s about it.”

Earlier this year, a New York court convicted a senior executive of the Turkish state-controlled Halkbank for violations of previous U.S. sanctions on Iran. Analysts suggest the conviction will result in Turkish banks being reluctant to offer services to Turkish companies operating in the Islamic Republic. The Halkbank conviction also provides Washington powerful leverage over Ankara.

“The Halkbank case is still open. The Treasury still has to decide on what kind of fine to impose,” said analyst Atilla Yesilada of GlobalSource Partners. “I hear it will receive some kind of fine, from $1 billion to $10 or 11 billion. I think what kind of opinion is formed about [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan and whether he can be won back to the Western camp will affect the size of that fine.”

Analysts warn that hefty fines by U.S. authorities could also hit other Turkish banks implicated in the Halkbank case.

Iran, Russia

Turkey’s deepening relations with both Iran and Russia have strained ties with its Western allies. On Monday, the U.S. Congress delayed the delivery of F-35 jets to Turkey because of Ankara’s plans to purchase S-400 Russian missiles.

Ankara maintains that it is committed to its strategic alliances with the West, claiming trade motivates ties with Tehran and Moscow along with the need to cooperate to resolve the Syrian civil war.

Ilnur Cevik, a senior adviser to Erdogan, penned a column Monday, citing growing concerns over Iran. Cevik accused Tehran of a lack of gratitude over Ankara’s stance in breaking previous U.S.-Iranian sanctions.

“Turkish goodwill and friendship were not reciprocated by Tehran. As soon as the Iranians signed the nuclear deal with the West, they turned their backs on Ankara and started to hurt Turkish interests. Turkish companies were unable to win contracts in Iran,” wrote Cevik in the Turkish Sabah newspaper.

Cevik also warned of the threat posed by Tehran. “There is also Iran displaying Persian expansionist policies throughout the Middle East,” Cevik wrote.

Turkey and Iran historically are regional rivals. They back opposing sides in the Syrian war. Ankara is also privately voicing frustration over Tehran’s lack of cooperation in fighting the Kurdish insurgent group, PKK.

The PKK has been waging a decades-long battle for autonomy in Turkey and has its headquarters in neighboring Iraq, close to the Iranian border. A senior Turkish official, speaking anonymously, acknowledged that an ongoing military operation to seize the PKK headquarters is undermined by Tehran’s refusal to seal its border to prevent the rebels from escaping.

“Iran is definitely a regional competitor of Turkey, no doubt about that, whether it’s PKK or in the case of many other points,” said international relations professor Huseyin Bagci at Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

Bagci suggests Ankara could be more flexible toward Washington over Iranian sanctions if Washington changes its approach.

“America unconditionally expects from Turkey that Turkey follows the line on its sanctions. Turkey cannot do this. It is economic suicide. If Turkey would follow the America policy, America should contribute to the economic losses of Turkey,” Bagci said.

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Haley: ‘Talk is Cheap’ on Palestinian Situation

U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley has blasted Arab and Muslim states for offering rhetoric on the Palestinian situation while not taking more concrete action to alleviate humanitarian suffering and support the peace process. 

Haley told the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday that “talk is cheap” and called out many countries, including U.S. allies Kuwait, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, for their lack of or small contributions to the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, known as UNRWA.

“Last year, Iran’s contribution to UNRWA was zero. Algeria’s contribution to UNRWA was zero. Tunisia’s contribution to UNRWA was zero,” Haley said. “Other countries did provide some funding. Pakistan gave $20,000. Egypt gave $20,000. Oman gave $668,000.”

She also called out China and Russia, which provided $350,000 and $2 million, respectively.

“Last year, while Algeria was providing nothing to UNRWA, and Turkey was providing $6.7 million, the United States gave $364 million,” Haley said. But she did not mention that in January the Trump administration slashed its 2018 funding by $300 million, leaving UNRWA in an unprecedented financial crisis.

Emergency sessions

Since then, the agency has held two emergency pledging conferences and raised $238 million, but it still faces a $217 million shortfall and has warned that it may have to delay the start of the September school year. UNRWA schools educate more than a half-million children in the Palestinian territories and across the region. 

“You cannot come to the Security Council in an arrogant way and say you are the only one helping and others aren’t doing anything — that’s not the case,” Palestinian envoy Riyad Mansour told reporters. “If they care about the humanitarian situation of the Palestinian refugees, especially the 1.2 million in Gaza, you do not stop $300 million away from UNRWA under any pretext.”

 

Several envoys took issue with Haley’s comments, including Saudi ambassador Abdullah al-Moallemi, who said in the past year his government has given $100 million to UNRWA – half of that came after the U.S. funding cut to help make up the shortfall. While China’s ambassador Ma Zhaoxu said Beijing is making an additional $2 million contribution to UNRWA this year.

 

“In this regard, China has always been doing what we believe we should do and what we are capable of doing,” Ma told council members. “We have no intention of competing with any other countries,” he added.

Haley also chided Arab countries for not condemning Hamas and not supporting compromises that are necessary for peace.

“If they really cared about the Palestinian people, they would not do that,” Haley said. “Instead, they would condemn extremism and they would put forth serious ideas for compromises that could end this struggle and lead to a better life for the Palestinian people.”

In 2002, Arab leaders did put forward a plan known as the Arab Peace Initiative that called for normalizing relations between Arab states and Israel in exchange for Israel’s full withdrawal from the occupied territories, including East Jerusalem, and settlement of the refugee issue. 

It has been met with mixed reaction. The Palestinian Authority welcomed the plan, but Hamas, which controls Gaza, did not. On the Israeli side, support for the proposal has run the gamut from rejection to tentative support over the years. 

​Haley also said the Palestinian Authority looks “foolish” for dismissing the anticipated U.S. peace plan before they have even seen it.

 

Palestinian envoy Mansour said his government is not interested in any U.S. proposal because the status of Jerusalem is off the table, UNRWA is being “destroyed” through U.S. funding cuts, Jewish settlements “are more or less acceptable” and the two-state solution is fading.

 

“So if you have that kind of behavior that is being exhibited by the U.S. administration, what is left on the table?” Mansour asked. “That’s why we don’t want to engage in something that is useless because all the things that they’ve announced unilaterally are things that will not pave the way for peace and progress.”

Gaza on the brink

Meanwhile, the U.N. warned that tensions between Israel and Hamas were at the highest levels since the 2014 Israel-Gaza war.

“Over the last two weeks, however, the situation quickly spiraled out of control, nearly to a point of no return,” said U.N. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Nickolay Mladenov. “I reiterate my call to all in Gaza to step back from the brink; those who seek to provoke Israelis and Palestinians to war must not succeed.” 

In the past month, Mladenov said 19 Palestinians, including seven children, were killed by the Israel Defense Forces in Gaza and one in the West Bank. An IDF soldier was killed by gunfire from Gaza, and four Israeli civilians and a soldier were wounded. 

Tensions are also rising between Israel and Syria. Earlier Tuesday, Israel shot down a Syrian fighter jet it said had crossed 2 kilometers into its territory.

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Egypt Hikes Natural Gas Prices by up to 75 Percent

Egypt raised natural gas prices for households and businesses on Saturday by between 33.3 and 75 percent, the latest among tough austerity measures aimed at rebuilding the country’s economy battered by years of unrest since a 2011 uprising.

The government’s decision, published in the official gazette on Saturday, should come into effect starting in August. It sets the price for gas consumption of up to 30 cubic meters to 1.75 Egyptian pounds up from 1 pound per cubic meter, an increase of 75 percent.

Meanwhile, gas consumption between 30-60 cubic meters went up by 42.8 percent, from 1.75 Egyptian pounds to 2.50 pounds per cubic meter. Consumption of over 60 cubic meters was upped by 33.3 percent, from 2.25 pounds to 3.00 pounds per cubic meter.

The move is likely to further fan the flames of popular discontent, especially among poor and middle-class Egyptians who have borne the brunt of the government’s economic reform program.

In recent months, Egypt introduced its latest wave of price hikes for fuel, drinking water and electricity. It also raised the price of new cellular phone lines and monthly cellular phone bills. Charges for issuing passports and car licenses also went up steeply.

The austerity policies are part of measures taken to meet demands by the International Monetary Fund for a $12 billion bailout loan to support the government’s reform plan. Egypt secured the three-year loan in 2016.

President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi says the reforms, he implemented after he took office in 2014, have put Egypt on “the right track” and that they will spur economic growth by over seven percent in the coming years.

He urged Egyptians to be patient with the reforms, which the government says should start benefiting citizens within two years.

 

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Israeli Military Downs Syrian Warplane

The Israeli military said it shot down a Syrian warplane Tuesday after it entered Israeli airspace.

A statement issued by the Israeli Defense Forces said it fired two Patriot interceptor missiles at the fighter jet after it crossed “into Israeli territory.”

“The IDF monitored the advance of the fighter jet, which infiltrated about two kilometers into Israeli airspace,” the statement said. “It was then intercepted by the Patriot missiles.”

Israel’s Army Radio reported said the plane was shot down over the occupied Golan Heights but may have crashed on the Syrian-controlled side of the frontier.

The army radio report said the condition of the pilot was unclear.  

Syrian state media said the plane was targeted while conducting raids in Syrian airspace.

Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967. The U.N. deployed a peacekeeping force there two years later.

 

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Group Urges Iraq to Probe Excessive Force Used at Protests

A leading international watchdog has called on the Iraqi government to investigate the excessive use of force against protesters demanding better services and jobs in the country’s south.

In a report issued on Tuesday, the Human Rights Watch also urged that members of the security forces responsible for using lethal force at the rallies be disciplined or prosecuted.

 

Early this month, residents of oil-rich Basra province staged protests against the lack of jobs and poor services. The rallies spread to other provinces in Iraq’s Shi’ite heartland.

 

The protests turned violent with security forces killing a number of protesters who attacked policemen and damaged government property.

 

HRW’s Mideast chief Sarah Leah Whitson has warned that “as the government fails to address protester grievances, the danger of further bloody protests remains real.”

 

 

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Russian Spies Hide in Plain Sight

In the pre-Internet era, spies faced more challenges than now when trying to infiltrate Western political circles in order to gather information, identify potential recruits, enlist the assistance of sympathizers and mount active operations, like meddling in a foreign country’s election.

Now they have the benefit of Facebook and LinkedIn and other social-media networking sites to expand their contacts, say former and current U.S. and British intelligence officials.

Western governments accuse Russian intelligence services of exploiting widely for propaganda purposes social media platforms, where they can plant “fake news,” deepen political discord in adversary states and mount influence campaigns in a bid to shape Western public opinion. But Russian spies — as opposed to trolls — are using networking sites also in highly sophisticated ways to work their way into Western political circles.

Maria Butina, the latest Russian female alleged spy who U.S. prosecutors believe they have unmasked, is an object lesson in how social media can assist covert influence operations — and not solely as propaganda platforms aimed at swaying or warping public opinion, says a U.S. counter-intelligence official who asked not to be identified for this article.

In the pre-internet era Russian influence-peddlers had to make do with trawling for “targets” at think tank and embassy events, political conferences and trade fairs. But now they can combine the physical and virtual. “Butina was using old tradecraft, turning up at political events, making contacts and then befriending them on Facebook or LinkedIn and vice versa. Social media platforms are useful in mapping out friendship networks and opening doors,” he adds.

Butina, 29, was charged last week with acting as an agent for the Kremlin in the United States. The Justice Department alleges she was in regular contact with Russian intelligence services. She has been indicted for conspiracy to operate on behalf of the Russian government and failing to register as a foreign agent.

She has not been formally charged with espionage — most likely as her role was not to steal state and military secrets but to insinuate her way into U.S. political circles in ways useful for Russia’s foreign-policy aims, including deepening partisanship in Western countries and opening up avenues of influence.

Federal prosecutors accuse Butina of conspiring with two American citizens, one of whom she cohabited with, and a top Russian official to influence U.S. policy toward Russia by infiltrating the National Rifle Association gun rights group and other conservative special interest groups potentially influential on the Trump administration.

U.S. prosecutors allege in a memorandum filed in support of a request for Butina to be held in detention while she awaits trial that the Russian gun-rights activist “maintained contact information for individuals identified as employees of the Russian FSB.” Additionally, prosecutors claim FBI surveillance observed Butina having a private meal with a Russian diplomat whom the U.S. government expelled in March 2018 for suspicion of being a Russian intelligence officer.

From court papers filed by U.S. prosecutors last week it remains unclear whether her operation was initiated by Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, or whether it was conceived by her patron, Alexander Torshin, a Russian central banker, as a way to boost himself within the Kremlin administration, with the FSB only getting involved subsequently.

A former British counter-intelligence officer says that’s a distinction without much meaning in a Kremlin administration seeded with so-called siloviki, Russian intelligence officers who have formally left the security agencies but are considered still active by Western intelligence officials. Many occupy high-ranking positions in the government of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, himself a former KGB officer.

Among the more traditional tradecraft techniques Butina allegedly used was offering sex to cozy up to U.S. politicians and lobbyists; in one case, according to U.S. prosecutors, to try to secure a job with an American special interest organization she had targeted. She lived with a Republican political operative twice her age. He has been identified in U.S. media as lobbyist Paul Erickson. She chafed, though, at the cohabitation, and, according to prosecutors she treated the relationship “as simply a necessary aspect of her activities.”

Butina has pled not guilty. Her lawyer, Robert Driscoll, says all she was doing was trying to help improve relations between the United States and Vladimir Putin’s Russia. And he denies she’s a spy, telling CNN Friday that much of the case against her was “taken completely out of context.”

Butina, who came to the United States in 2014 on a student visa, founded a pro-gun group in Russia called Right to Bear Arms and used gun activism in what U.S. prosecutors allege was a “calculated, patient” plan directed by Torshin to infiltrate the NRA and conservative special interest groups to make inroads into American political circles. Social media platforms were highly useful in the endeavor as she cut a swathe through U.S. conservative politics, boasting on her Facebook page of meetings with, among others, former Republican presidential candidates Rick Santorum and Scott Walker, the current Wisconsin governor.

In one e-mail to Butina, disclosed in court papers, Torshin praised her efforts, comparing them to Kremlin agent Anna Chapman, another flame-haired Russian who gained international notoriety after her 2010 arrest in the United States. Chapman and a handful of other Russians were deported to Russia in July 2010, as part of a prisoner exchange. “You have upstaged Anna Chapman,” Torshin declared.

Journalist Michael Isikoff at Yahoo News had a front seat view of Butina’s methods. He co-authored with David Corn the book “Russian Roulette: The Inside Story Of Putin’s War On America And The Election Of Donald Trump” and had been tracking Butina’s activities.

He said she and Torshin had been making efforts to influence American conservative political organizations. He told the American public broadcaster NPR in an interview:

“As we reported in the book — David Corn and I — there’s a Republican lobbyist who remembers being approached by her at a CPAC conference — Conservative Political Action Conference — and just being struck by how solicitous she was, how she wanted to stay in touch with him and become his Facebook friend. And this is a somewhat elderly gentleman, balding, wasn’t used to this kind of attention from a young, attractive Russian woman.”

Hiding in plain sight on the internet, using overtly social media networking platforms holds risks, too. Being active on Facebook increases the chance of exposure, prompting the attention of counter-intelligence watchers, as well as journalists. In an e-mail exchange with VOA, Isikoff noted, he “friended’ her [on Facebook] in order to get in touch so I could interview her.”

And a U.S. counter-intelligence official says Butina drew attention to herself as much by her social media activity as her physical activities. So much so that she was called to testify earlier this year by the Senate Intelligence Committee, during which, according to CNN she disclosed her gun activism received funding from Russian billionaire Konstantin Nikolaev, another Kremlin-tied oligarch.

The Butina case is adding to an unfolding picture of a sophisticated and disruptive covert Russian influence campaign in the United States and the West, with the Kremlin targeting both sides of the political spectrum, say Western officials. In Soviet times, Moscow focused on far-left parties and nuclear-disarmament groups, but as a 2014 report by the Budapest-based think tank Political Capital noted, the Kremlin in recent years has become more sophisticated, courting overtly and covertly groups on the populist right of the Western political spectrum as well as the left.

The politically ambidextrous nature now of Russian intelligence and influence campaigns was dramatically captured during the 10th anniversary celebrations of the Kremlin-funded RT broadcaster in December 2015, when Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein was an invitee to a gala dinner. She sat at the same table as President Putin — along with Gen. Mike Flynn, who served briefly as President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, before pleading guilty to lying to the FBI about contacts he had with Russian officials during Trump’s presidential transition.

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Israel Partially Lifts Limitations on Gaza Cargo Crossing

Israel says it is partially reopening its only cargo crossing with the Gaza Strip after Hamas hostilities subsided.

Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman says Tuesday Israel will resume transferring gas and fuel through the Kerem Shalom crossing in addition to the food and essential medication it has been allowing.

 

Last week, Lieberman placed restrictions on the crossing after Gaza’s militant rulers continued to allow incendiary kites and balloons to float into Israel even after agreeing to a cease-fire. They set off damaging fires to farmlands. Lieberman says the crossing will resume operating fully once the fires cease completely.

 

Israel and Egypt have maintained a decade-long naval blockade on Gaza to try and weaken Hamas. The blockade has caused widespread economic hardship.

 

Israel says it is necessary to protect its citizens from weapon smuggling.

 

 

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Wildfires in Greece Kill At Least 49

Fire officials in Greece said Tuesday at least 49 people have been killed and more than 140 injured in wildfires raging through resort towns near the country’s capital.

Regional authorities have declared a state of emergency in areas east and west of Athens and deployed the army to help fight the blazes.

Athens has asked the European Union for aerial and ground support to help battle the flames. Greece said Cyprus offered to send firefighters, while Spain offered water-dropping aircraft. BBC News reported countries, including Italy, Germany, Poland and France, have sent planes, vehicles and firefighters.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras cut short a visit to Bosnia on Monday and returned to Athens to preside over an emergency-response meeting.

“We are doing everything humanly possible to try and tackle these fires,” Tsipras said. “What concerns us is that there are fires occurring simultaneously.”

The first fire broke out in a pine forest near the small town of Kineta, 50 kilometers west of Athens.

Three communities were evacuated, and the blaze shut down a nearly 20-kilometer section of a major highway.

High temperatures of up to 40 degrees Celsius have been predicted for Greece, and authorities have warned that the risk of forest fires is high. Wind gusts of up to 80 kph were hampering efforts to contain the blazes.

Another fire was burning northeast of Athens, in the Penteli area, moving into the town of Rafina. The mayor of Rafina estimated at least 100 homes have been destroyed.

The Greek coast guard sent boats to the area to evacuate residents trapped on the beach by the flames. It was also searching for a boat reported missing that was said to be carrying Danish tourists fleeing the fires.

A local fire chief went on state TV to appeal to people to leave the area after some tried to stay in their properties.

“People should leave, close up their homes and just leave. People cannot tolerate so much smoke for so many hours,” Achilleas Tzouvaras said. “This is an extreme situation.” 

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US Says 463 Migrant Parents May Have Been Deported Without Kids

More than 450 immigrant parents who were separated from their children when they entered the United States illegally are no longer in the country though their children remain behind, according to a joint court filing on Monday by the federal government and the American Civil Liberties Union.

The absence of the 463 parents, which U.S. government lawyers said was “under review,” could impede government efforts to reunite separated families by Thursday, the deadline ordered by a federal judge. The filing did not say why the 463 parents had left the country, but government officials previously acknowledged that some parents had been deported without their children.

As of Monday, 879 parents had been reunited with their children, according to the filing.

About 2,500 children were separated from their parents after the Trump administration announced a “zero tolerance” policy in April aimed at discouraging illegal immigration. The policy was ended in June amid an international outcry about the government’s treatment of immigrant children.

U.S. District Judge Dana Sabraw in San Diego ordered last month that the government had to reunite the children with their parents in a case brought by the ACLU.

On Monday, the government also said 917 parents were either not eligible to be reunited or not yet known to be eligible to be reunited with their child. That number includes parents no longer in the country as well as those deemed unsuitable because of criminal convictions or for other reasons.

Immigration advocates have expressed alarm about parents deported without their children, saying it can create problems with the children’s immigration cases.

“How can we go forward on a case if we don’t know the parent’s wishes?” Megan McKenna, spokeswoman for Kids in Need of Defense, told Reuters earlier this month.

While Monday’s report indicated progress with reunifications, the ACLU made clear its frustrations with the process. The rights group said it did not have a list of parents who signed a form electing to be deported without their child.

“These parents urgently need consultations with lawyers, so that they do not mistakenly strand their children in the United States,” the ACLU wrote in the court filing.

The ACLU asked Sabraw to order the government to turn the information over by the end of Tuesday.

The government said it had cleared an additional 538 parents for reunification pending transport.

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Geologists: Hawaii Eruption Could Last Years, Destroy New Areas

The eruption of Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano could last for months or years and threaten new communities on the Big Island, according to a report by U.S. government geologists.

A main risk is a possible change in the direction of a lava flow that would destroy more residential areas after at least 712 homes were torched and thousands of residents forced to evacuate since Kilauea began erupting on May 3, the report by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said.

A higher volume of molten rock is flowing underground from Kilauea’s summit lava reservoir than in previous eruptions, with supply to a single giant crack — fissure 8 — showing no sign of waning, according to the study published last week.

“If the ongoing eruption maintains its current style of activity at a high eruption rate, then it may take months to a year or two to wind down,” said the report designed to help authorities on the Big Island deal with potential risks from the volcano.

Lava is bursting from same area about 25 miles (40 km) down Kilauea’s eastern side as it did in eruptions of 1840, 1955 and 1960, the report said. The longest of those eruptions was in 1955. It lasted 88 days, separated by pauses in activity.

The current eruption could become the longest in the volcano’s recorded history, it added.

Geologists believe previous eruptions may have stopped as underground lava pressure dropped due to multiple fissures opening up in this Lower East Rift Zone, the report said.

The current eruption has coalesced around a single fissure, allowing lava pressure to remain high.

A 1,300-foot-wide (400-meter) lava river now flows to the ocean from this “source cone” through an elevated channel about 52 to 72 feet (16 to 22 meters) above ground.

“The main hazard from the source cone and the channel system is a failure of the cone or channel walls, or blockage of the channel where it divides in narrower braids. Either could divert most, if not all, of the lava to a new course depending on where the breach occurs,” the report said.

The report said it only considered risks from a change in lava flow direction to communities to the north of the channel as residents there have not been evacuated, whereas residents to the south have already left their homes.

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US-South Korea Pact to Remain, Even if North Korea Threat Eases

“The fundamental basis for the alliance” between the United States and South Korea “would continue” and grow stronger, even after North Korea’s nuclear threat and tension on the peninsula are reduced, a former U.S. ambassadors to South Korea said.

Although the pace of the denuclearization effort by North Korea has been slow since it made a commitment to work toward “complete denuclearization” at the summit in Singapore held in June, the level of threat from the regime has declined, Gen. Vincent Brooks, top U.S. commander in South Korea, said.

“We’ve gone now 235 days without a provocation, so we saw a big change occur,” Brooks said at the Aspen Security Forum via video link on Saturday. “To be sure, the physical threats and capabilities are still in place. But it’s evident through words and action that the intent to use them has changed.”

US-South Korea alliance

Even if North Korea’s nuclear threat is reduced and tension on the peninsula de-escalates, the U.S.-South Korea alliance will remain unchanged. The relationship is bound by the Mutual Defense Treaty, signed at the conclusion of the Korean War in 1953, to provide a basis for the continued U.S. troop presence on the Korean Peninsula to deter a North Korean attack on South Korea and to provide a nuclear umbrella in the region.

“The fundamental basis for the alliance would continue, in terms of mutual defense commitment under the original treaty,” said Alexander Vershbow, who served as ambassador to South Korea during the George W. Bush administration. 

Vershbow also said, in the long run, the absence of a North Korean threat could potentially reduce the U.S. troop presence in South Korea.

“In the context of the much-reduced threat from the North, one could see the basis for the reduction of the U.S. presence,” Vershbow told VOA. 

Before the June 12 Singapore summit, President Donald Trump had asked the Pentagon to consider reducing U.S. troops on the peninsula in May.

After meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore, Trump called for the suspension of “war games” with South Korea.

The annual Ulchi Freedom Guardian joint military exercises conducted by the U.S. and South Korea that usually takes place in August have been suspended, fueling concerns of possible U.S. force reduction on the peninsula.

During his visit to Seoul in June after Trump’s summit with Kim, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said the U.S. will maintain the current level of military presence in South Korea and that U.S. commitment to the country will remain “ironclad.”

Currently, there are 28,000 U.S. troops in South Korea.

‘Overarching goal’

Vershbow said if there is going to be a reduction of U.S. troops, it is after achieving a unified and “overarching goal of denuclearization as a precondition for any fundamental change when it relates to the North.”

Mark Lippert, who served as the U.S. ambassador to South Korea from 2012 to 2017, said even if the security situation on the peninsula changes, the U.S.-South Korean alliance that has “modernized and adapted in very, very strong capable ways to keep it relevant” will continue to grow robust, “not just on the Korean peninsula but helping the U.S. and Korea work on issues in the region and around the world.” 

Vershbow echoed Lippert, saying the alliance will continue to serve a purpose beyond deterring North Korean because it will continue by providing a deterrent throughout northeast Asia as envisioned in the defense treaty.

“The U.S. is not going to necessarily change the broader deterrent posture in the region,” he said. 

Mentioning that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states found “strong overriding” reasons for the U.S. “to stay in and engage in Europe with its military and security forces” even after the fall of the Soviet Union, Lippert said, “There are all sorts of data points to suggest it’s beyond the [Korean] peninsula at this point.”

Lippert pointed out that America’s largest overseas military base is Camp Humphreys in South Korea, as evidence that the U.S.-South Korean alliance is “one of the world’s greatest alliance, if not the greatest.”

Ending 70 years of presence in Seoul, the U.S. military headquarters in South Korea relocated to Pyeongtaek in late June, about 45 miles south of the capital.

The newly expanded Camp Humphreys took more than $10 billion to build, of which Lippert said South Korea paid about 92 to 96 percent. It is expected to house approximately 45,000 troops and their families by 2022. 

“One of the most important indicators of [the alliance growing strong] is the current move to Camp Humphreys,” Lippert said. “This is a great symbol of alliance. … And you noticed nobody is making negative noises about Camp Humphreys and our troop presence there. I think that suggests durability over time.”

Another factor suggesting the alliance remains strong and that “positive change is coming is that the Blue House has made comments that the alliance is not just about North Korea. It’s about other countries, other issues … in a form of global Korea,” Lippert added.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said during his three-day visit to Singapore that started July 11, “South Korea and the U.S. maintain a firm stance about the role and importance of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) for peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia.”

Moon also responded to the suspension of military drills possibly leading to the reduction of U.S. troops in South Korea, saying, “USFK is a completely different issue. It is a matter of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, not something that can be discussed in denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S.”

By providing a foundation of security and stability in northeast Asia, U.S. military presence on the peninsula and the alliance and relationship that Lippert said has grown in “multidirections” will continue to help create a condition for “unbridled economic and cultural success” in the region.

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Shooting Victims Outraged Over MGM’s Lawsuit Against Them

Victims of a mass shooting at a Las Vegas country music festival said Monday they were outraged when they learned they were being sued by the company that owns the hotel where the gunman opened fire.

Jason McMillan, a 36-year-old Riverside County sheriff’s deputy who was shot and paralyzed, said he can’t believe MGM officials would try to foist blame onto anyone but themselves.

“I just can’t believe the audacity,” McMillan said at a press conference in Southern California where survivors, victims’ relatives and attorneys railed against the decision to file lawsuits against hundreds of victims.

“I’m not just a victim from the concert. I’m a survivor, and they’re not going to get away with anything. We’ll keep this going as long as it takes,” McMillan said.

MGM Resorts International sued victims in at least seven states last week in a bid to get federal courts to declare the company has no liability for the deadliest mass shooting in modern U.S. history.

In October, high-stakes gambler Stephen Paddock killed 58 people and injured hundreds at the festival by firing onto the crowd from his room at the Mandalay Bay casino-resort in Las Vegas. Paddock then killed himself.

MGM’s lawsuits – which target victims who have threatened to sue or who have sued the company and voluntarily dismissed their claims – argue that that the shooting qualifies as an act of terrorism and that federally certified security services were used at the concert venue, which is also owned by MGM.

After 9/11, the U.S. enacted a law giving companies a way to limit their liability if their federally certified products or services failed to prevent a terror attack.

The company’s decision to file the lawsuits stoked a public outcry. On Monday, MGM Resorts spokeswoman Debra DeShong said the company has faced dozens of lawsuits in multiple jurisdictions and resolving each case on its own would take years.

 

“We believe Congress determined these cases should be in federal court and that getting everyone in the same court is the best and fastest way to resolve these cases,” she said.

 

McMillan said he felt helpless at the concert when he fell to the ground and couldn’t feel his legs. His girlfriend helped drag his body over a fence and others helped load him onto the back of a pickup truck where he lay staring at the night sky, struggling to breathe, while the driver plowed over curbs and through bushes to rush him and other victims to the hospital.

 

When he woke, doctors told him he had a bullet in his spine. He was afraid his 4- and 7-year-old daughters would look at him differently in a wheelchair. He was afraid of what they might miss out on, he said, because of him.

 

It was insulting to learn he was being sued by MGM at the same time he was struggling to rebuild his life, McMillan said. And it brought him right back to feeling helpless again.

 

“It enrages me to think that this company can just try to skip out on their responsibilities and their liability for what happened,” he said.

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Trump, Mexico Expect Progress in Stalled NAFTA Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump spoke warmly of Mexico’s incoming leftist president on Monday, saying he expected to get “something worked out” on NAFTA, while a top Mexican official said there was scope to revive the trade talks this week.

“We’re talking to Mexico on NAFTA, and I think we’re going to have something worked out. The new president, terrific person,” Trump said in a speech at the White House about American manufacturing.

“We’re talking to them about doing something very dramatic, very positive for both countries, he said, without giving more details.

Talks to reshape the 1994 trade accord have been underway since last August. But they stalled in the run-up to the July 1 presidential election in Mexico, which produced a landslide victory for veteran leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

The United States, Mexico and Canada have been at odds over U.S. demands to impose tougher content rules for the auto industry, as well as several other proposals, including one that would kill NAFTA after five years if it is not renegotiated.

Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo, who last week expressed hope an agreement in principle on NAFTA could be reached by the end of August, is due to hold talks with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer at the end of the week in Washington.

He will be accompanied by Jesus Seade, the designated chief NAFTA negotiator of the incoming Mexican administration.

“There’s clearly a window of opportunity to be able to bed down a series of open issues which are not numerous, but are very complex,” Guajardo said on the sidelines of a summit of the Pacific Alliance trade bloc in the western coastal city of Puerto Vallarta.

Guajardo is due to meet his Canadian counterpart Chrystia Freeland on Wednesday, also to discuss NAFTA.

After the election, top officials from both the outgoing and new Mexican governments met in Mexico City with senior Trump administration officials led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Seade said the visit had sent out “excellent” signals.

“We hope these signals translate into a willingness to move forward,” Seade told reporters in Puerto Vallarta.

The talks have been clouded by tit-for-tat measures over trade after the Trump administration slapped tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum imports.

The United States is also exploring the possibility of imposing tariffs on auto imports, though Guajardo said it was too early to speculate on how that would play out.

Mexico’s foreign ministry said on Monday that South Korea had initiated the process of seeking associate membership in the Pacific Alliance, which comprises Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru and is seeking to deepen free trade.

Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and Canada were last year admitted as associate members by the alliance. For Mexico, the expansion is part of a push to diversify its trading partners in the wake of Trump’s previous threats to pull out of NAFTA.

Guajardo indicated that despite his optimism about reaching a deal, risks still exist.

“The biggest risk is that instead of moving forward with an agenda of opening and integration, we move backwards, closing our economy and really undoing what we’ve built in the last two and a half decades,” Guajardo said.

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Large Stone Drops Out of Western Wall in Jerusalem    

A section of one of Judaism’s holiest sites is closed to worshippers after a huge stone dropped out of the Western Wall Monday, barely missing a woman praying.

Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat said the stone weighs 100 kilograms (220 pounds) and called it “a great miracle” no one was hurt.

Just one day earlier, the area was packed with worshippers for the Jewish holy day Tisha B’Av, which marks the destruction of temples that stood at the site.

The head of the Israeli Antiquities Authority, Israel Hasson, said the aging of the wall, plants and dampness may have caused the stone to drop and said it could happen again.

But, he said, “I wish that everybody could have a builder who would construct such buildings that a stone falls out only after 2,000 years.”

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