Month: March 2018

Rising Birthrates Not Enough to Replenish EU Population

Posted on by SeeEU

More babies are being born across the European Union but not enough to replenish the population naturally, the bloc’s statistics agency said Wednesday.

Across the 28-nation European bloc, 5.15 million babies were born in 2016, the last year for which figures were available, compared with 5.10 million in 2015, a Eurostat report showed.

The overall fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime, stands at 1.6 — well short of the 2.1 live births per woman that Eurostat said was “considered to be the replacement level in developed countries.”

France had the highest fertility rate of 1.92 births per woman, followed by Sweden with 1.85, Ireland with 1.81, and Denmark and the United Kingdom both with 1.79.

In comparison, Spain and Italy had the lowest rates with 1.34 births per woman.

Germany, where the rate is 1.59 births per woman, noted a record number of babies in 2016. There were 792,131 children born in the country that year. Officials said this was boosted by an increase in births by non-German women following large numbers of migrant arrivals.

The new figures also delved into the age of first-time mothers across the EU — and revealed a stark divide across the bloc.

Women in the EU had their first child on average at 29 years old, with the youngest in Bulgaria at 26 and the oldest in Italy at 31, Eurostat said.

Romania had the highest rates of teenage pregnancy, with 14.2 percent of births in the Eastern European country being to women under 20.
…

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Rising Birthrates Not Enough to Replenish EU Population

Posted on by SeeEU

More babies are being born across the European Union but not enough to replenish the population naturally, the bloc’s statistics agency said Wednesday.

Across the 28-nation European bloc, 5.15 million babies were born in 2016, the last year for which figures were available, compared with 5.10 million in 2015, a Eurostat report showed.

The overall fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime, stands at 1.6 — well short of the 2.1 live births per woman that Eurostat said was “considered to be the replacement level in developed countries.”

France had the highest fertility rate of 1.92 births per woman, followed by Sweden with 1.85, Ireland with 1.81, and Denmark and the United Kingdom both with 1.79.

In comparison, Spain and Italy had the lowest rates with 1.34 births per woman.

Germany, where the rate is 1.59 births per woman, noted a record number of babies in 2016. There were 792,131 children born in the country that year. Officials said this was boosted by an increase in births by non-German women following large numbers of migrant arrivals.

The new figures also delved into the age of first-time mothers across the EU — and revealed a stark divide across the bloc.

Women in the EU had their first child on average at 29 years old, with the youngest in Bulgaria at 26 and the oldest in Italy at 31, Eurostat said.

Romania had the highest rates of teenage pregnancy, with 14.2 percent of births in the Eastern European country being to women under 20.
…

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US South Asia Strategy Not Changing Afghanistan’s Fundamental Challenge

Posted on by SeeUS

Efforts to bolster Afghanistan’s armed forces, along with an increased use of American air power, seem to be doing little to change the country’s reputation as a magnet for foreign fighters and jihadists.

Afghan officials have been warning for months about the flow of 3,000 foreign fighters, many of whom had been coming from Pakistan and Uzbekistan to join the Islamic State terror group’s Afghan affiliate, IS-Khorasan.

Now, officials are warning of a new surge of jihadists, many coming to Afghanistan from places like Iraq and Syria via routes that lead through Pakistan.

“There has been a growth in the number of the foreign fighters in the country,” Afghan National Security Adviser Mohammad Hanif Atmar said during a visit to Washington last week. “We’re talking about hundreds of them coming from the Middle East through Pakistan, and other regional groups.”

Afghan and Western officials say that while precise numbers are hard to come by, unlike before, the fighters are not focused only on joining IS. 

Many are flocking to other terror groups operating within Afghanistan’s borders, including al-Qaida, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Lakshar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad.

Afghan officials worry this current influx is helping to create a changing dynamic in which these terror organizations are forging new ties with each other and the Taliban, allowing them to collectively benefit, even as they compete for people and resources.

“They have a symbiotic relationship with the Taliban, and the Haqqani and the drug networks,” Atmar said.

“The foreign fighters need Taliban as their local host and protector,” he added. “And the Taliban need them for their knowledge, their expertise and their resources.”

Pakistan’s counterterror role

Atmar and other officials believe Pakistan could help reduce the problem if officials in Islamabad choose to help.

“There will be no foreign fighters without Taliban in Afghanistan and there will be no Taliban insurgency without sanctuaries in Pakistan,” the Afghan national security adviser said. “So, we need to see some action.”

Pakistan, though, has been pushing back.

“[Nearly] half of the country is a safe haven,” Pakistani Defense Minister Khurram Dastgir said of Afghanistan, in an exclusive interview with VOA this week.

“You don’t control 45 percent of Afghanistan and don’t know what is going on there, who is there, who is moving in and out of that safe haven, but you keep blaming us,” Dastigir said.

U.S. officials say Pakistan has been somewhat more helpful when it comes to terrorism since President Donald Trump unveiled his South Asia strategy, freezing nearly $2 billion in aid unless Islamabad took more decisive action against terrorists operating along the border with Afghanistan.

But U.S. officials say they are still looking for more to be done, especially when it comes to Islamic State-Khorasan.

“These IS-K fighters are primarily Pakistani Pashtun,” General John Nicholson, the commander of U.S. Forces-Afghanistan, said in a statement last week.

Fighters flocking to Jowzjan

One area of ongoing concern for U.S. military officials has been Afghanistan’s northern Jowzjan province, a remote area where IS has been relocating fighters from Pakistan and from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

IS fighters from places like Tajikistan and Chechnya, as well as some from as far away as France and Sudan, also have been flocking to the area despite U.S. efforts to disrupt the group’s operations there.

According to Afghan security officials, at least 80 IS foreign fighters are in custody, with discussions underway about whether they should be kept in Afghanistan or returned to their countries of origin.

Making counterterrorism efforts much more difficult have been the deep ties many of the terror groups have forged with drug traffickers.

“They are all drawing on the criminalized economy,” said Afghanistan’s  Atmar. “The drug networks need them. They need the drug income.”

According to U.S. military officials, the Taliban alone are bringing in an estimated $200 million a year from drugs.

Afghan officials also suspect terrorists may be getting help from countries in the region and beyond.

They accuse Russia, in particular, of trying to strengthen some terrorist groups in order to weaken others, while peddling false narratives — allegations Moscow denies.

“We also get concerned when they [Russia] claim there are U.S., NATO, Afghan unmarked helicopters bringing so-called Daesh from the south or even the tribal areas of Pakistan to the north of the country,” Atmar said, using an Arabic acronym for Islamic State.

Ayaz Gul in Islamabad contributed to this report.
…

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US South Asia Strategy Not Changing Afghanistan’s Fundamental Challenge

Posted on by SeeUS

Efforts to bolster Afghanistan’s armed forces, along with an increased use of American air power, seem to be doing little to change the country’s reputation as a magnet for foreign fighters and jihadists.

Afghan officials have been warning for months about the flow of 3,000 foreign fighters, many of whom had been coming from Pakistan and Uzbekistan to join the Islamic State terror group’s Afghan affiliate, IS-Khorasan.

Now, officials are warning of a new surge of jihadists, many coming to Afghanistan from places like Iraq and Syria via routes that lead through Pakistan.

“There has been a growth in the number of the foreign fighters in the country,” Afghan National Security Adviser Mohammad Hanif Atmar said during a visit to Washington last week. “We’re talking about hundreds of them coming from the Middle East through Pakistan, and other regional groups.”

Afghan and Western officials say that while precise numbers are hard to come by, unlike before, the fighters are not focused only on joining IS. 

Many are flocking to other terror groups operating within Afghanistan’s borders, including al-Qaida, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Lakshar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad.

Afghan officials worry this current influx is helping to create a changing dynamic in which these terror organizations are forging new ties with each other and the Taliban, allowing them to collectively benefit, even as they compete for people and resources.

“They have a symbiotic relationship with the Taliban, and the Haqqani and the drug networks,” Atmar said.

“The foreign fighters need Taliban as their local host and protector,” he added. “And the Taliban need them for their knowledge, their expertise and their resources.”

Pakistan’s counterterror role

Atmar and other officials believe Pakistan could help reduce the problem if officials in Islamabad choose to help.

“There will be no foreign fighters without Taliban in Afghanistan and there will be no Taliban insurgency without sanctuaries in Pakistan,” the Afghan national security adviser said. “So, we need to see some action.”

Pakistan, though, has been pushing back.

“[Nearly] half of the country is a safe haven,” Pakistani Defense Minister Khurram Dastgir said of Afghanistan, in an exclusive interview with VOA this week.

“You don’t control 45 percent of Afghanistan and don’t know what is going on there, who is there, who is moving in and out of that safe haven, but you keep blaming us,” Dastigir said.

U.S. officials say Pakistan has been somewhat more helpful when it comes to terrorism since President Donald Trump unveiled his South Asia strategy, freezing nearly $2 billion in aid unless Islamabad took more decisive action against terrorists operating along the border with Afghanistan.

But U.S. officials say they are still looking for more to be done, especially when it comes to Islamic State-Khorasan.

“These IS-K fighters are primarily Pakistani Pashtun,” General John Nicholson, the commander of U.S. Forces-Afghanistan, said in a statement last week.

Fighters flocking to Jowzjan

One area of ongoing concern for U.S. military officials has been Afghanistan’s northern Jowzjan province, a remote area where IS has been relocating fighters from Pakistan and from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

IS fighters from places like Tajikistan and Chechnya, as well as some from as far away as France and Sudan, also have been flocking to the area despite U.S. efforts to disrupt the group’s operations there.

According to Afghan security officials, at least 80 IS foreign fighters are in custody, with discussions underway about whether they should be kept in Afghanistan or returned to their countries of origin.

Making counterterrorism efforts much more difficult have been the deep ties many of the terror groups have forged with drug traffickers.

“They are all drawing on the criminalized economy,” said Afghanistan’s  Atmar. “The drug networks need them. They need the drug income.”

According to U.S. military officials, the Taliban alone are bringing in an estimated $200 million a year from drugs.

Afghan officials also suspect terrorists may be getting help from countries in the region and beyond.

They accuse Russia, in particular, of trying to strengthen some terrorist groups in order to weaken others, while peddling false narratives — allegations Moscow denies.

“We also get concerned when they [Russia] claim there are U.S., NATO, Afghan unmarked helicopters bringing so-called Daesh from the south or even the tribal areas of Pakistan to the north of the country,” Atmar said, using an Arabic acronym for Islamic State.

Ayaz Gul in Islamabad contributed to this report.
…

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Israel Warns of Snipers, Live Ammunition Ahead of Gaza Protests

Posted on by SeeEA

The Israeli army will use live ammunition to disperse planned rallies Friday in the Gaza Strip, according to Israel’s top general.

Israel has deployed more than 100 sharpshooters on the Gaza border, and the soldiers have permission to open fire on protesters “if Israeli security infrastructure comes under threat,” Israeli army chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot told the Israeli daily Maariv on Wednesday. 

“The instructions are to use a lot of force,” he said. “In the event of mortal danger [to troops], there is authorization to open fire.”

Organizers said they expected thousands, including entire families, to answer their call to gather in tent cities in five locations along the sensitive border starting Friday, in a six-week protest for a right of return of Palestinian refugees to what is now Israel.

The start of the demonstration was symbolically linked to what Palestinians call “Land Day,” which commemorates the six Arab citizens of Israel killed by Israeli security forces in demonstrations in 1976 over land confiscation. The weeklong Jewish holiday of Passover, when Israel heightens security, also begins Friday.

The protest is due to end May 15, the day Palestinians call the “Nakba,” or “Catastrophe,” marking the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in the conflict surrounding the creation of Israel in 1948.

Palestinians have long demanded that as many as 5 million of their people be allowed to return to the land from which they were displaced. Israel resists the suggestions, fearing that an Arab influx would end the Jewish majority in Israel. 
…

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Israel Warns of Snipers, Live Ammunition Ahead of Gaza Protests

Posted on by SeeEA

The Israeli army will use live ammunition to disperse planned rallies Friday in the Gaza Strip, according to Israel’s top general.

Israel has deployed more than 100 sharpshooters on the Gaza border, and the soldiers have permission to open fire on protesters “if Israeli security infrastructure comes under threat,” Israeli army chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot told the Israeli daily Maariv on Wednesday. 

“The instructions are to use a lot of force,” he said. “In the event of mortal danger [to troops], there is authorization to open fire.”

Organizers said they expected thousands, including entire families, to answer their call to gather in tent cities in five locations along the sensitive border starting Friday, in a six-week protest for a right of return of Palestinian refugees to what is now Israel.

The start of the demonstration was symbolically linked to what Palestinians call “Land Day,” which commemorates the six Arab citizens of Israel killed by Israeli security forces in demonstrations in 1976 over land confiscation. The weeklong Jewish holiday of Passover, when Israel heightens security, also begins Friday.

The protest is due to end May 15, the day Palestinians call the “Nakba,” or “Catastrophe,” marking the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in the conflict surrounding the creation of Israel in 1948.

Palestinians have long demanded that as many as 5 million of their people be allowed to return to the land from which they were displaced. Israel resists the suggestions, fearing that an Arab influx would end the Jewish majority in Israel. 
…

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Trump Says He’ll Replace Veterans Affairs’ Shulkin With Physician Jackson

Posted on by SeeUS

President Donald Trump’s reshuffling of his Cabinet continued Wednesday with the ouster of Department of Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin.

​Dr. Ronny Jackson became a White House physician in 2006, during the George W. Bush administration, and was appointed physician to the president in 2013 under Barack Obama. Trump kept him on when he became president, and it was Jackson who conducted Trump’s most recent physical exam.

Shulkin, also a holdover from the Obama era, served as the head of the nation’s second-largest government agency for little more than a year. He had been locked for months in a power struggle with a group of Trump political appointees among his senior staff who wanted him out. 

Shulkin had pledged the VA would not be privatized on his watch but would provide veterans expanded opportunities to get private-sector care. White House political appointees want a more comprehensive overhaul and even more veteran access to VA-funded care in the private sector.​

Shulkin’s tenure was marked by his implication in a widening ethics scandal. In September 2017, the Veterans Affairs inspector general’s office found that he spent nearly half of a taxpayer-funded 10-day trip to Europe sightseeing with his wife.

Shulkin initially defended the trip, which included shopping, attending the women’s tennis final at Wimbledon, and a river cruise, as “nothing inappropriate.”

The inspector general, however, stated in a report, that Shulkin’s chief of staff had lied to investigators and had forged an email to justify Shulkin’s wife’s presence on the trip.

The report also found that Shulkin had misled investigators about the nature of his relationship with the woman who provided Wimbledon tickets for himself and his wife, describing her as a “friend” of his wife’s instead of as a business contact. The woman, when asked by investigators, could not remember Shulkin’s wife’s first name.
…

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Trump Says He’ll Replace Veterans Affairs’ Shulkin With Physician Jackson

Posted on by SeeUS

President Donald Trump’s reshuffling of his Cabinet continued Wednesday with the ouster of Department of Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin.

​Dr. Ronny Jackson became a White House physician in 2006, during the George W. Bush administration, and was appointed physician to the president in 2013 under Barack Obama. Trump kept him on when he became president, and it was Jackson who conducted Trump’s most recent physical exam.

Shulkin, also a holdover from the Obama era, served as the head of the nation’s second-largest government agency for little more than a year. He had been locked for months in a power struggle with a group of Trump political appointees among his senior staff who wanted him out. 

Shulkin had pledged the VA would not be privatized on his watch but would provide veterans expanded opportunities to get private-sector care. White House political appointees want a more comprehensive overhaul and even more veteran access to VA-funded care in the private sector.​

Shulkin’s tenure was marked by his implication in a widening ethics scandal. In September 2017, the Veterans Affairs inspector general’s office found that he spent nearly half of a taxpayer-funded 10-day trip to Europe sightseeing with his wife.

Shulkin initially defended the trip, which included shopping, attending the women’s tennis final at Wimbledon, and a river cruise, as “nothing inappropriate.”

The inspector general, however, stated in a report, that Shulkin’s chief of staff had lied to investigators and had forged an email to justify Shulkin’s wife’s presence on the trip.

The report also found that Shulkin had misled investigators about the nature of his relationship with the woman who provided Wimbledon tickets for himself and his wife, describing her as a “friend” of his wife’s instead of as a business contact. The woman, when asked by investigators, could not remember Shulkin’s wife’s first name.
…

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Looming US Showdown With Iran Puts Ankara in Tight Spot

Posted on by SeeEU

Top diplomats from Turkey and the United States are working hard to bridge the deep gulf between the two NATO allies. 

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Tina Kaidanow is in Ankara for talks this week, while Turkey’s top diplomat, Umit Yalcin, will visit Washington this weekend.

However, the effort may be complicated, as Ankara improves ties with neighboring Iran while America prepares a tougher approach to that nation.

Turkish analysts say U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of CIA chief Mike Pompeo as secretary of state and John Bolton’s appointment as national security adviser show that the administration is taking a hard-line view toward Iran.

Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in Washington and Iraq, said Pompeo is already focused on Iran, and he noted that disagreements with Trump over Iran policy were a key reason Rex Tillerson was fired as secretary of state. Selcen said a hawkish new policy might force Ankara to choose between Iran and the United States.

Washington has been wondering about Turkey’s commitment to Western allies since Ankara bought the powerful, long-range Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system. The deal prompted calls in Congress for Turkish sanctions. 

Fresh start

But a more confrontational approach by Washington toward Tehran offers the opportunity of a reset in Turkish-U.S. ties.

“I think the United States does not want to punish Turkey. I think the American establishment would love to befriend Turkey,” said analyst Atilla Yesilada of GlobalSource Partners, a markets research and analysis firm. “But they need someone on the ground as insurance against Iranian expansion, and Turkey is simply not ready to assume that role. Until Ankara changes its view and decides to adopt a more robust or antagonistic approach to Tehran, Americans cannot consider Turkey a strategic ally, and I don’t know if that change will come.”

Observers point out that with Turkey bordering Iran and being a key Iranian trading partner, Ankara would be an important if not vital ally for Washington as it confronted Tehran.

Iran and Turkey have always competed for power and influence in the region but have tempered such competition with cooperation. Syria has become a focal point of this balancing act. Turkey’s expanding military operation into Syria against a Kurdish militia is reportedly causing growing unease in Tehran. At the same time, the two countries are cooperating with Moscow to try to resolve the civil war, in what has been dubbed the Astana process.

“Ankara is not on the best of terms [with Iran] at the moment,” said political columnist Semih Idiz of the Al Monitor website, “but they are trying to maintain this appearance of cohabitation within this Astana process relating to Syria. Turkey would want to tread very cautiously, in terms of whether to align itself with America against Iran.”

Some Turkish analysts have suggested that Ankara’s price for backing Washington against Tehran could be an end to U.S. support of the Syrian Kurdish militia, the YPG, in its war against Islamic State.

Ankara accuses the militia of being linked to the PKK, which has waged a decades-long insurgency inside Turkey. With the YPG controlling a large part of Syria, it is also widely seen as important to Washington’s efforts to curtail Tehran’s influence in Syria.

Tehran offers

But Tehran has also been courting Ankara with offers of expanding bilateral trade. The two countries also recently found common ground in opposing Iraqi Kurdish aspirations for independence.

Such cooperation also has raised hopes in Ankara of getting help against the PKK, which has its headquarters in the mountainous Iraqi Qandil region that borders Iran.

“Ankara thinks by befriending Iran, they can get PKK out of Qandil,” Yesilada said. “Of course, there is the economic angle. Russia does the same thing to Turkey. They [Iran] dangle these massive economic projects or trade benefits, and Ankara gets fooled by those projects, even though Tehran hasn’t done us any favors recently.”

Ankara has in the past insisted it’s bound to enforce only U.N. sanctions against Iran, not Western allies’ measures against Iran.

Next month, Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a senior state Turkish banker, is due to be sentenced by a U.S. court for having violated U.S.-Iranian sanctions. The case continues to sour Turkish-U.S. relations, with Ankara calling the case politically motivated. 

But Ankara could yet pay a far higher price for sitting on the sidelines in any future U.S. showdown with Iran.

Possible sanctions would give the United States “a very effective means to deter Turkey,” Yesilada said. And “it’s not just the Atilla case. There is the S-400, and the U.S. local consular employees under arrest.”

The United States could “shame and blame Turkey” for any number of reasons, he said. “Given the Turkish lira is already extremely fragile, just the threat of imposing sanctions could have a serious impact.”
…

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Looming US Showdown With Iran Puts Ankara in Tight Spot

Posted on by SeeEU

Top diplomats from Turkey and the United States are working hard to bridge the deep gulf between the two NATO allies. 

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Tina Kaidanow is in Ankara for talks this week, while Turkey’s top diplomat, Umit Yalcin, will visit Washington this weekend.

However, the effort may be complicated, as Ankara improves ties with neighboring Iran while America prepares a tougher approach to that nation.

Turkish analysts say U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of CIA chief Mike Pompeo as secretary of state and John Bolton’s appointment as national security adviser show that the administration is taking a hard-line view toward Iran.

Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in Washington and Iraq, said Pompeo is already focused on Iran, and he noted that disagreements with Trump over Iran policy were a key reason Rex Tillerson was fired as secretary of state. Selcen said a hawkish new policy might force Ankara to choose between Iran and the United States.

Washington has been wondering about Turkey’s commitment to Western allies since Ankara bought the powerful, long-range Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system. The deal prompted calls in Congress for Turkish sanctions. 

Fresh start

But a more confrontational approach by Washington toward Tehran offers the opportunity of a reset in Turkish-U.S. ties.

“I think the United States does not want to punish Turkey. I think the American establishment would love to befriend Turkey,” said analyst Atilla Yesilada of GlobalSource Partners, a markets research and analysis firm. “But they need someone on the ground as insurance against Iranian expansion, and Turkey is simply not ready to assume that role. Until Ankara changes its view and decides to adopt a more robust or antagonistic approach to Tehran, Americans cannot consider Turkey a strategic ally, and I don’t know if that change will come.”

Observers point out that with Turkey bordering Iran and being a key Iranian trading partner, Ankara would be an important if not vital ally for Washington as it confronted Tehran.

Iran and Turkey have always competed for power and influence in the region but have tempered such competition with cooperation. Syria has become a focal point of this balancing act. Turkey’s expanding military operation into Syria against a Kurdish militia is reportedly causing growing unease in Tehran. At the same time, the two countries are cooperating with Moscow to try to resolve the civil war, in what has been dubbed the Astana process.

“Ankara is not on the best of terms [with Iran] at the moment,” said political columnist Semih Idiz of the Al Monitor website, “but they are trying to maintain this appearance of cohabitation within this Astana process relating to Syria. Turkey would want to tread very cautiously, in terms of whether to align itself with America against Iran.”

Some Turkish analysts have suggested that Ankara’s price for backing Washington against Tehran could be an end to U.S. support of the Syrian Kurdish militia, the YPG, in its war against Islamic State.

Ankara accuses the militia of being linked to the PKK, which has waged a decades-long insurgency inside Turkey. With the YPG controlling a large part of Syria, it is also widely seen as important to Washington’s efforts to curtail Tehran’s influence in Syria.

Tehran offers

But Tehran has also been courting Ankara with offers of expanding bilateral trade. The two countries also recently found common ground in opposing Iraqi Kurdish aspirations for independence.

Such cooperation also has raised hopes in Ankara of getting help against the PKK, which has its headquarters in the mountainous Iraqi Qandil region that borders Iran.

“Ankara thinks by befriending Iran, they can get PKK out of Qandil,” Yesilada said. “Of course, there is the economic angle. Russia does the same thing to Turkey. They [Iran] dangle these massive economic projects or trade benefits, and Ankara gets fooled by those projects, even though Tehran hasn’t done us any favors recently.”

Ankara has in the past insisted it’s bound to enforce only U.N. sanctions against Iran, not Western allies’ measures against Iran.

Next month, Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a senior state Turkish banker, is due to be sentenced by a U.S. court for having violated U.S.-Iranian sanctions. The case continues to sour Turkish-U.S. relations, with Ankara calling the case politically motivated. 

But Ankara could yet pay a far higher price for sitting on the sidelines in any future U.S. showdown with Iran.

Possible sanctions would give the United States “a very effective means to deter Turkey,” Yesilada said. And “it’s not just the Atilla case. There is the S-400, and the U.S. local consular employees under arrest.”

The United States could “shame and blame Turkey” for any number of reasons, he said. “Given the Turkish lira is already extremely fragile, just the threat of imposing sanctions could have a serious impact.”
…

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Police: Russian Spy Was poisoned by Nerve Agent on the Door of His England Home

Posted on by SeeEU

Russian former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with a nerve toxin that had been left on the front door of their home in England, British counter-terrorism police said Wednesday.

After the first known use of a chemical weapon on European soil since World War Two, Britain blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the attempted assassination and the West has expelled around 130 Russian diplomats.

Russia has denied any involvement in the attack and has said it suspects the British secret services of using the Novichok nerve agent, which was developed by the Soviet military, to frame Russia and stoke anti-Russian hysteria.

“We believe the Skripals first came into contact with the nerve agent from their front door,” said Dean Haydon, Britain’s’ senior national coordinator for counter terrorism policing. “Specialists have identified the highest concentration of the nerve agent, to-date, as being on the front door of the

address,” Scotland Yard said in a statement.

Skripal, 66, and his 33-year-old daughter Yulia have been in a critical condition since being found unconscious on a public bench in the English city of Salisbury on March 4 and a British judge has said they may have suffered permanent brain damage.

The attempted murder of Skripal, a former colonel in Russia’s GRU military intelligence who betrayed dozens of Russian agents to Britain’s MI6 spy service, has plunged Moscow’s relations with the West to a new post-Cold War low.

After Britain expelled 23 Russians it said were spies working under diplomatic cover, Russia followed by throwing out 23 British diplomats. The United States and other Western countries, including most member states of the European Union and NATO, expelled over 100 diplomats.

Putin, who has been dealing with a deadly shopping center fire in Siberia, has yet to respond, though Moscow has threatened to take retaliatory action.

“An analysis of all the circumstances … leads us to think of the possible involvement in it [the poisoning] of the British intelligence services,” the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement on Wednesday before the announcement by British police. “If convincing evidence to the contrary is not presented to the Russian side we will consider that we are dealing with an attempt on the lives of our citizens as a result of a massive political provocation.”

After the United States broke a Russian spy ring in 2010, Skripal was exchanged for the 10 Russian spies caught in the United States.

Since emerging from the John le Carre world of high espionage and betrayal, Skripal lived modestly in Salisbury and kept out of the spotlight until he was found unconscious on March 4.

His house in Salisbury was bought for 260,000 pounds ($360,000) in 2011. Skripal was listed at living there under his own name. In the years since he found refuge in Britain, Skripal lost both a wife and son.

British police said they would continue to focus their inquiries around Skripal’s home address as the investigation continued.
…

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Police: Russian Spy Was poisoned by Nerve Agent on the Door of His England Home

Posted on by SeeEU

Russian former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with a nerve toxin that had been left on the front door of their home in England, British counter-terrorism police said Wednesday.

After the first known use of a chemical weapon on European soil since World War Two, Britain blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the attempted assassination and the West has expelled around 130 Russian diplomats.

Russia has denied any involvement in the attack and has said it suspects the British secret services of using the Novichok nerve agent, which was developed by the Soviet military, to frame Russia and stoke anti-Russian hysteria.

“We believe the Skripals first came into contact with the nerve agent from their front door,” said Dean Haydon, Britain’s’ senior national coordinator for counter terrorism policing. “Specialists have identified the highest concentration of the nerve agent, to-date, as being on the front door of the

address,” Scotland Yard said in a statement.

Skripal, 66, and his 33-year-old daughter Yulia have been in a critical condition since being found unconscious on a public bench in the English city of Salisbury on March 4 and a British judge has said they may have suffered permanent brain damage.

The attempted murder of Skripal, a former colonel in Russia’s GRU military intelligence who betrayed dozens of Russian agents to Britain’s MI6 spy service, has plunged Moscow’s relations with the West to a new post-Cold War low.

After Britain expelled 23 Russians it said were spies working under diplomatic cover, Russia followed by throwing out 23 British diplomats. The United States and other Western countries, including most member states of the European Union and NATO, expelled over 100 diplomats.

Putin, who has been dealing with a deadly shopping center fire in Siberia, has yet to respond, though Moscow has threatened to take retaliatory action.

“An analysis of all the circumstances … leads us to think of the possible involvement in it [the poisoning] of the British intelligence services,” the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement on Wednesday before the announcement by British police. “If convincing evidence to the contrary is not presented to the Russian side we will consider that we are dealing with an attempt on the lives of our citizens as a result of a massive political provocation.”

After the United States broke a Russian spy ring in 2010, Skripal was exchanged for the 10 Russian spies caught in the United States.

Since emerging from the John le Carre world of high espionage and betrayal, Skripal lived modestly in Salisbury and kept out of the spotlight until he was found unconscious on March 4.

His house in Salisbury was bought for 260,000 pounds ($360,000) in 2011. Skripal was listed at living there under his own name. In the years since he found refuge in Britain, Skripal lost both a wife and son.

British police said they would continue to focus their inquiries around Skripal’s home address as the investigation continued.
…

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Trump’s Pick for National Security Adviser Advocates Tough Response to Russia

Posted on by SeeEU

President Donald Trump’s pick to be his new national security adviser, John Bolton, is known for his “hawkish” views on North Korea and Iran, but also has pushed for a tougher U.S. response to Russian aggression in the West and around the world.

Bolton has said the United States has been clear that it stands with its allies after the attack with Russian nerve gas on a former double agent and his daughter in Britain. Moscow denies responsibility for the poisoning.

“I think you saw a statement by the four leaders of Germany, France, the U.K. and the United States. I think that is a pretty good indication that the four countries see this the same way,” Bolton told a Sky News reporter last week, when asked if the U.S. and its allies should be tougher on Russia.

And during a discussion in February, before he was chosen by Trump to be one of his top advisers, Bolton outlined how he thought the U.S. should respond to Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections.

“Whether [the Russians] were trying to collude with the Trump campaign or the Clinton campaign, their interference is unacceptable. It’s really an attack on the United States Constitution,” Bolton said at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security in Washington.

The former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations called for an “overwhelming” response to Moscow.

“Whatever they did in the 2016 election, I think we should respond to in cyberspace and elsewhere,” Bolton said. “I don’t think the response should be proportionate. I think it should be very disproportionate. Because deterrence works when you convince your adversary that they will pay an enormous cost for imposing a cost on you.”

In an op-ed in the Daily Telegraph in July of last year, Bolton went even further, alleging that Russian President Vladimir Putin looked Trump in the eye and lied to him when he denied Russian government interference in the U.S. elections.

“It is in fact a casus belli, a true act of war, and one Washington will never tolerate. For Trump, it should be a highly salutary lesson about the character of Russia’s leadership to watch Putin lie to him,” Bolton wrote.

Putin has denied his government was behind the election attack, but has acknowledged individual Russians may have been involved.

‘Russia’s worst nightmare’

For his part, Trump repeatedly has downplayed Russian interference in the U.S. elections, noting results of the vote “were not impacted or changed by the Russians.”

Trump also has repeatedly called the investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller into Russian election interference and possible coordination with the Trump campaign a “hoax” and a “witch-hunt.”

“Every time he [Putin] sees me, he says, ‘I didn’t do that.’ And I believe — I really believe that when he tells me that, he means it,” Trump told reporters last November when asked about Putin’s denial that Russia was behind the cyberattacks.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow tells VOA that Putin may need to adjust his expectations of a friendly relationship with Trump now that Bolton is joining the team.

“We now have John Bolton, who is very tough on Russia, coming into the White House next month, so hopefully Russia will draw some conclusions from this and look for ways to pursue a less confrontational policy with the West,” said Vershbow, an Atlantic Council distinguished fellow.

Harry Kazianis, with The Center for National Interest, agrees, saying Moscow should brace for changes from Washington.

“I think John Bolton is Russia’s worst nightmare. He has been a Russia hawk for all of his career, he has always advocated a tough stand on Moscow,” Kazianis said. “I can see Bolton recommending to the president quite a few changes on policy, one being further arms sales to Ukraine.”

‘No reservations’

Bolton does not need to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate and is set to begin working in the White House on April 9.

At the Pentagon Tuesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters he had “no reservations” and “no concerns at all” about working with Bolton and any divergent world views.

“I hope that there’s some different world views. That’s the normal thing you want unless you want groupthink,” Mattis said.

National Security Correspondent Jeff Seldin and VOA Russia Service contributed to this report.
…

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Trump’s Pick for National Security Adviser Advocates Tough Response to Russia

Posted on by SeeEU

President Donald Trump’s pick to be his new national security adviser, John Bolton, is known for his “hawkish” views on North Korea and Iran, but also has pushed for a tougher U.S. response to Russian aggression in the West and around the world.

Bolton has said the United States has been clear that it stands with its allies after the attack with Russian nerve gas on a former double agent and his daughter in Britain. Moscow denies responsibility for the poisoning.

“I think you saw a statement by the four leaders of Germany, France, the U.K. and the United States. I think that is a pretty good indication that the four countries see this the same way,” Bolton told a Sky News reporter last week, when asked if the U.S. and its allies should be tougher on Russia.

And during a discussion in February, before he was chosen by Trump to be one of his top advisers, Bolton outlined how he thought the U.S. should respond to Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections.

“Whether [the Russians] were trying to collude with the Trump campaign or the Clinton campaign, their interference is unacceptable. It’s really an attack on the United States Constitution,” Bolton said at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security in Washington.

The former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations called for an “overwhelming” response to Moscow.

“Whatever they did in the 2016 election, I think we should respond to in cyberspace and elsewhere,” Bolton said. “I don’t think the response should be proportionate. I think it should be very disproportionate. Because deterrence works when you convince your adversary that they will pay an enormous cost for imposing a cost on you.”

In an op-ed in the Daily Telegraph in July of last year, Bolton went even further, alleging that Russian President Vladimir Putin looked Trump in the eye and lied to him when he denied Russian government interference in the U.S. elections.

“It is in fact a casus belli, a true act of war, and one Washington will never tolerate. For Trump, it should be a highly salutary lesson about the character of Russia’s leadership to watch Putin lie to him,” Bolton wrote.

Putin has denied his government was behind the election attack, but has acknowledged individual Russians may have been involved.

‘Russia’s worst nightmare’

For his part, Trump repeatedly has downplayed Russian interference in the U.S. elections, noting results of the vote “were not impacted or changed by the Russians.”

Trump also has repeatedly called the investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller into Russian election interference and possible coordination with the Trump campaign a “hoax” and a “witch-hunt.”

“Every time he [Putin] sees me, he says, ‘I didn’t do that.’ And I believe — I really believe that when he tells me that, he means it,” Trump told reporters last November when asked about Putin’s denial that Russia was behind the cyberattacks.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow tells VOA that Putin may need to adjust his expectations of a friendly relationship with Trump now that Bolton is joining the team.

“We now have John Bolton, who is very tough on Russia, coming into the White House next month, so hopefully Russia will draw some conclusions from this and look for ways to pursue a less confrontational policy with the West,” said Vershbow, an Atlantic Council distinguished fellow.

Harry Kazianis, with The Center for National Interest, agrees, saying Moscow should brace for changes from Washington.

“I think John Bolton is Russia’s worst nightmare. He has been a Russia hawk for all of his career, he has always advocated a tough stand on Moscow,” Kazianis said. “I can see Bolton recommending to the president quite a few changes on policy, one being further arms sales to Ukraine.”

‘No reservations’

Bolton does not need to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate and is set to begin working in the White House on April 9.

At the Pentagon Tuesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters he had “no reservations” and “no concerns at all” about working with Bolton and any divergent world views.

“I hope that there’s some different world views. That’s the normal thing you want unless you want groupthink,” Mattis said.

National Security Correspondent Jeff Seldin and VOA Russia Service contributed to this report.
…

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In the absence of drama, Egypt’s voters stay away in polls’ final days

Posted on by SeeEA

Voters cast ballots for a third and final day Wednesday in Egypt’s presidential election. With incumbent President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi running largely unopposed, there was little drama during the polling. Among those supporting Sissi were older Egyptians who hope for stability after years of political turmoil in the Arab world’s most populous country. Many young people — hungry for change and more freedom — were cynical and stayed away from the polls. Hamada Elrasam reports from Cairo.
…

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In the absence of drama, Egypt’s voters stay away in polls’ final days

Posted on by SeeEA

Voters cast ballots for a third and final day Wednesday in Egypt’s presidential election. With incumbent President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi running largely unopposed, there was little drama during the polling. Among those supporting Sissi were older Egyptians who hope for stability after years of political turmoil in the Arab world’s most populous country. Many young people — hungry for change and more freedom — were cynical and stayed away from the polls. Hamada Elrasam reports from Cairo.
…

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Straight Talk Africa

Posted on by SeeAF

We are streaming live. Join us and let us know from what part of the world you are watching us.
…

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Straight Talk Africa

Posted on by SeeAF

We are streaming live. Join us and let us know from what part of the world you are watching us.
…

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Lacking Drama, Egypt’s Elections Excite Few

Posted on by SeeEA

Voters cast ballots for a third and final day Wednesday in Egypt’s presidential election. With incumbent President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi running largely unopposed, there was little drama during the polling.  Among those supporting al-Sissi were older Egyptians who hope for stability after years of political turmoil in the Arab world’s most populous country. Many young people — hungry for change and more freedom — were cynical of the election and stayed away from the polls.
…

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Lacking Drama, Egypt’s Elections Excite Few

Posted on by SeeEA

Voters cast ballots for a third and final day Wednesday in Egypt’s presidential election. With incumbent President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi running largely unopposed, there was little drama during the polling.  Among those supporting al-Sissi were older Egyptians who hope for stability after years of political turmoil in the Arab world’s most populous country. Many young people — hungry for change and more freedom — were cynical of the election and stayed away from the polls.
…

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US Military: Al-Qaida Leader Killed in Libya Attack

Posted on by SeeEA

The U.S. military said Wednesday a high-ranking leader of the al-Qaida militant group was killed Saturday in a joint U.S.-Libyan airstrike in the southwestern Libyan town of Ubari.

Musa Abu Dawud, who trained members of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in Libya, was among two al-Qaida militants killed in the attack, according to the U.S. Africa Command.

In addition to training recruits, the command said Dawud provided AQIM with weapons and logistical and financial support.

The command said Dawud’s support of AQIM enabled the group to “threaten and attack U.S. and Western interests in the region.”

In May 2016, the U.S. named Dawud as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, a designation the U.S. said is reserved for those who have committed, or at risk of committing, terrorist acts against the U.S.
…

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US Military: Al-Qaida Leader Killed in Libya Attack

Posted on by SeeEA

The U.S. military said Wednesday a high-ranking leader of the al-Qaida militant group was killed Saturday in a joint U.S.-Libyan airstrike in the southwestern Libyan town of Ubari.

Musa Abu Dawud, who trained members of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in Libya, was among two al-Qaida militants killed in the attack, according to the U.S. Africa Command.

In addition to training recruits, the command said Dawud provided AQIM with weapons and logistical and financial support.

The command said Dawud’s support of AQIM enabled the group to “threaten and attack U.S. and Western interests in the region.”

In May 2016, the U.S. named Dawud as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, a designation the U.S. said is reserved for those who have committed, or at risk of committing, terrorist acts against the U.S.
…

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Worries of War Between Israel, Iran Increase

Posted on by SeeEA

Israel and Iran, with two of the most powerful militaries in the Middle East, appear on a collision course that some experts fear could ignite a regional war that might ultimately drag in the United States and Russia.

The tensions are centered in Israel’s northern neighbor Syria, where both Russia and Iran have been emboldened by their success in shoring up the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The war has occasionally spilled across Israel’s borders, causing alarm in the Jewish state.

“If a Hezbollah missile or mortar shell hits a kindergarten or a school bus — a terror attack that causes major damage in terms of Israeli lives — this would be a tactical incident that entails a strategic price,” predicts Lior Weintraub, a former Israeli diplomat and now a lecturer at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya.

“That would be translated into a significant Israeli retaliation and from there you might see a slippery slope.”

Christopher Kozak, a senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, also worries about an incident spinning out of control.

“That’s why I am greatly concerned in the next several months we are going to get, if not a total regional conflagration, then at least a more direct Israel-Iran confrontation on a new third front,” he told VOA.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Lebanese Hezbollah have stationed resources along the eastern Golan Heights and deployed key commanders to the area.

“Jerusalem’s liberation is near,” hardline Iranian cleric Ebrahim Raisi said in January during a tour of the Israel-Lebanon border, where he was flanked by Hezbollah commanders and Iranian officers.

Weintraub says Israel understands there is “only one reason” for Iran to entrench itself Syria, and that is “to build a launching pad for an attack against Israel.”

Some analysts worry that the situation will only get worse if the United States renounces the nuclear non-proliferation deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), between Iran and the international community.

“Beyond allowing Iran to re-initiate a nuclear weapons program, our trashing of the deal would send a signal to Israel that Washington would countenance something as bold as an Israeli military strike on Iran,” Ned Price, a National Security Council spokesman in the Obama administration tells VOA.

“That could well be the spark that sets the region ablaze, with Hezbollah then potentially doing the bidding of Tehran in locales near and far,” says Price, who spent a decade at the Central Intelligence Agency as a senior analyst and then spokesman.

Acknowledging that tension and that “fears have been developing around the worst-case scenario”, Pierre Pahlavi, assistant professor of defense studies at the Royal Military College of Canada, says war is not inevitable.

In February, the Middle East appeared on the edge of a wider war after an Iranian drone was shot down in Israeli airspace and an Israeli fighter jet was hit by anti-aircraft fire from Syria when attacking an Iranian base. Israel retaliated by hitting a dozen more targets in Syria, including four additional purported Iranian military facilities.

 

Even before those incidents, the International Crisis Group had warned that “a broader war could be only a miscalculation away.”

Pahlavi asserts that “neither Israel nor Iran wants to start a clash that would spiral up.”

In Israel, Weintraub concurs but warns “if the sword would be on Israel’s neck, then Israel will act. And if Israel will act, there’ll be a price for it. But when you fight for your survival, you do what you have to do, and you take what you have to take.”

 

Last week, Israel openly acknowledged for the first time that it bombed a suspected nuclear reactor in Syria in 2007 and suggested the air strike should be a reminder to Tehran it will never be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

“The Iranians are absolutely aware that they have no capacity to confront the Israeli forces conventionally,” says Pahlavi, whose great uncle was the last shah of Iran. “I do believe — but maybe it’s wishful thinking, the Iranians will do whatever they have to in order to keep things under control.”

Russia has an effective coalition with Iran in the Middle East while it is also interested in managing its relationship with Israel. That has allowed Moscow generally to turn a blind eye to Israeli actions against Iran inside Syria.

If Russia has to choose between Jerusalem and Tehran, most analysts see Moscow more closely aligning with Iran.

“Do they go all the way to shooting down an Israeli jet? I don’t know if they’d go that far,” says Kozak.

Israelis express confidence they would not need American forces to help fight Iran, but they also do not expect the Trump administration to try to restrain them.

Weintraub notes that it is “very visible to all of the Middle East that the United States stands behind Israel. It means a lot, in terms of national security, for the lives of Israelis. … But I’m not talking about moving one [additional] American soldier onto the soil of the Middle East.”

The United States military intends to keep forces in Syria, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in January, not only for mopping up Islamic State and al-Qaida fighters, but also as a signal to the forces controlled by Damascus and Tehran.

However, analysts say, Washington has effectively outsourced to Moscow the job of enforcing several so-called de-escalation zones in Syria, giving it the upper hand at a time of rising tension between the two countries.

Should any of its forces be hit by U.S. strikes, such as those conducted to punish Syria for chemical attacks, Russia’s military has issued an unprecedented blunt threat.

“If lives of the Russian officers are threatened, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will retaliate against missile and launch systems,” said Army General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian armed forces, earlier in March.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone last week. Trump told reporters they discussed the Syrian civil war — which is the world’s deadliest conflict in recent decades — and that the two leaders are looking to meet soon.

Arranging such a summit may prove difficult as the climate of U.S.-Russian relations plunges to its lowest temperature since the Cold War.

Moscow on Monday vowed retaliation after the United States — joined by numerous allies — expelled dozens of its diplomats it considers spies, in response to a nerve gas attack in Britain that is blamed by the West on Russia.

 
…

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Worries of War Between Israel, Iran Increase

Posted on by SeeEA

Israel and Iran, with two of the most powerful militaries in the Middle East, appear on a collision course that some experts fear could ignite a regional war that might ultimately drag in the United States and Russia.

The tensions are centered in Israel’s northern neighbor Syria, where both Russia and Iran have been emboldened by their success in shoring up the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The war has occasionally spilled across Israel’s borders, causing alarm in the Jewish state.

“If a Hezbollah missile or mortar shell hits a kindergarten or a school bus — a terror attack that causes major damage in terms of Israeli lives — this would be a tactical incident that entails a strategic price,” predicts Lior Weintraub, a former Israeli diplomat and now a lecturer at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya.

“That would be translated into a significant Israeli retaliation and from there you might see a slippery slope.”

Christopher Kozak, a senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, also worries about an incident spinning out of control.

“That’s why I am greatly concerned in the next several months we are going to get, if not a total regional conflagration, then at least a more direct Israel-Iran confrontation on a new third front,” he told VOA.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Lebanese Hezbollah have stationed resources along the eastern Golan Heights and deployed key commanders to the area.

“Jerusalem’s liberation is near,” hardline Iranian cleric Ebrahim Raisi said in January during a tour of the Israel-Lebanon border, where he was flanked by Hezbollah commanders and Iranian officers.

Weintraub says Israel understands there is “only one reason” for Iran to entrench itself Syria, and that is “to build a launching pad for an attack against Israel.”

Some analysts worry that the situation will only get worse if the United States renounces the nuclear non-proliferation deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), between Iran and the international community.

“Beyond allowing Iran to re-initiate a nuclear weapons program, our trashing of the deal would send a signal to Israel that Washington would countenance something as bold as an Israeli military strike on Iran,” Ned Price, a National Security Council spokesman in the Obama administration tells VOA.

“That could well be the spark that sets the region ablaze, with Hezbollah then potentially doing the bidding of Tehran in locales near and far,” says Price, who spent a decade at the Central Intelligence Agency as a senior analyst and then spokesman.

Acknowledging that tension and that “fears have been developing around the worst-case scenario”, Pierre Pahlavi, assistant professor of defense studies at the Royal Military College of Canada, says war is not inevitable.

In February, the Middle East appeared on the edge of a wider war after an Iranian drone was shot down in Israeli airspace and an Israeli fighter jet was hit by anti-aircraft fire from Syria when attacking an Iranian base. Israel retaliated by hitting a dozen more targets in Syria, including four additional purported Iranian military facilities.

 

Even before those incidents, the International Crisis Group had warned that “a broader war could be only a miscalculation away.”

Pahlavi asserts that “neither Israel nor Iran wants to start a clash that would spiral up.”

In Israel, Weintraub concurs but warns “if the sword would be on Israel’s neck, then Israel will act. And if Israel will act, there’ll be a price for it. But when you fight for your survival, you do what you have to do, and you take what you have to take.”

 

Last week, Israel openly acknowledged for the first time that it bombed a suspected nuclear reactor in Syria in 2007 and suggested the air strike should be a reminder to Tehran it will never be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

“The Iranians are absolutely aware that they have no capacity to confront the Israeli forces conventionally,” says Pahlavi, whose great uncle was the last shah of Iran. “I do believe — but maybe it’s wishful thinking, the Iranians will do whatever they have to in order to keep things under control.”

Russia has an effective coalition with Iran in the Middle East while it is also interested in managing its relationship with Israel. That has allowed Moscow generally to turn a blind eye to Israeli actions against Iran inside Syria.

If Russia has to choose between Jerusalem and Tehran, most analysts see Moscow more closely aligning with Iran.

“Do they go all the way to shooting down an Israeli jet? I don’t know if they’d go that far,” says Kozak.

Israelis express confidence they would not need American forces to help fight Iran, but they also do not expect the Trump administration to try to restrain them.

Weintraub notes that it is “very visible to all of the Middle East that the United States stands behind Israel. It means a lot, in terms of national security, for the lives of Israelis. … But I’m not talking about moving one [additional] American soldier onto the soil of the Middle East.”

The United States military intends to keep forces in Syria, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in January, not only for mopping up Islamic State and al-Qaida fighters, but also as a signal to the forces controlled by Damascus and Tehran.

However, analysts say, Washington has effectively outsourced to Moscow the job of enforcing several so-called de-escalation zones in Syria, giving it the upper hand at a time of rising tension between the two countries.

Should any of its forces be hit by U.S. strikes, such as those conducted to punish Syria for chemical attacks, Russia’s military has issued an unprecedented blunt threat.

“If lives of the Russian officers are threatened, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will retaliate against missile and launch systems,” said Army General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian armed forces, earlier in March.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone last week. Trump told reporters they discussed the Syrian civil war — which is the world’s deadliest conflict in recent decades — and that the two leaders are looking to meet soon.

Arranging such a summit may prove difficult as the climate of U.S.-Russian relations plunges to its lowest temperature since the Cold War.

Moscow on Monday vowed retaliation after the United States — joined by numerous allies — expelled dozens of its diplomats it considers spies, in response to a nerve gas attack in Britain that is blamed by the West on Russia.

 
…

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