Trump: I Told NATO, Pay Bills or Russia Can ‘Do Whatever The Hell They Want’

NEW YORK — Republican front-runner Donald Trump said Saturday that, as president, he warned NATO allies that he “would encourage” Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to countries that are “delinquent” as he ramped up his attacks on foreign aid and longstanding international alliances.

Speaking at a rally in Conway, South Carolina, Trump recounted a story he has told before about an unidentified NATO member who confronted him over his threat not to defend members who fail to meet the trans-Atlantic alliance’s defense spending targets.

But this time, Trump went further, saying had told the member that he would, in fact, “encourage” Russia to do as it wishes in that case.

“‘You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?'” Trump recounted saying. “‘No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.'”

NATO allies agreed in 2014, after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, to halt the spending cuts they had made after the Cold War and move toward spending 2% of their GDPs on defense by 2024.

White House spokesperson Andrew Bates responded, saying that: “Encouraging invasions of our closest allies by murderous regimes is appalling and unhinged – and it endangers American national security, global stability, and our economy at home.”

Trump’s comments come as Ukraine remains mired in its efforts to stave off Russia’s 2022 invasion and as Republicans in Congress have become increasingly skeptical of providing additional aid money to the country as it struggles with stalled counteroffensives and weapons shortfalls.

They also come as Trump and his team are increasingly confident he will lock up the nomination in the coming weeks following commanding victories in the first votes of the 2024 Republican nominating calendar.

Earlier Saturday, Trump called for the end of foreign aid “WITHOUT “STRINGS” ATTACHED,” arguing that the U.S. should dramatically curtail the way it provides money.

“FROM THIS POINT FORWARD, ARE YOU LISTENING U.S. SENATE(?), NO MONEY IN THE FORM OF FOREIGN AID SHOULD BE GIVEN TO ANY COUNTRY UNLESS IT IS DONE AS A LOAN, NOT JUST A GIVEAWAY,” Trump wrote on his social media network in all-caps letters.

Trump went on to say the money could be loaned “ON EXTRAORDINARILY GOOD TERMS,” with no interest and no date for repayment. But he said that, “IF THE COUNTRY WE ARE HELPING EVER TURNS AGAINST US, OR STRIKES IT RICH SOMETIME IN THE FUTURE, THE LOAN WILL BE PAID OFF AND THE MONEY RETURNED TO THE UNITED STATES.”

During his 2016 campaign, Trump alarmed Western allies by warning that the United States, under his leadership, might abandon its NATO treaty commitments and only come to the defense of countries that meet the alliance’s guidelines by committing 2 percent of their gross domestic products to military spending.

Trump, as president, eventually endorsed NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, which states that an armed attack against one or more of its members shall be considered an attack against all members. But he often depicted NATO allies as leeches on the U.S. military and openly questioned the value of the military alliance that has defined American foreign policy for decades.

As of 2022, NATO reported that seven of what are now 31 NATO member countries were meeting that obligation — up from three in 2014. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has spurred additional military spending by some NATO members.

Trump has often tried to take credit for that increase, and bragged again Saturday that, as a results of his threats, “hundreds of billions of dollars came into NATO”— even though countries do not pay NATO directly.

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Finland Elects President in New Geopolitical Landscape

Helsinki, Finland — Two seasoned politicians face off in Finland’s presidential election on Sunday, with the president’s role having gained importance in light of the country’s NATO membership and rising tensions with neighboring Russia.

Some 4.3 million voters will have to choose between former conservative Prime Minister Alexander Stubb and ex-Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, a Green Party MP running as an independent.

The changing geopolitical landscape in Europe will be the main concern for the new head of state, who — while having limited powers compared to the prime minister — leads the country’s foreign policy together with the government and also acts as supreme commander of Finland’s armed forces.

Relations between Moscow and Helsinki deteriorated following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, prompting Finland to drop decades of military nonalignment and join NATO in April 2023.

Russia, with whom Finland shares a 1,340-kilometer border, swiftly warned of “countermeasures.”

“The fact that we’ve just joined NATO has a lot of significance because the building of the NATO institution in Finland and what it will look like will largely be a task for the new president,” Theodora Helimaki, doctoral researcher in political science at the University of Helsinki, told AFP.

“The top two were perhaps the most experienced in terms of foreign policy,” she added regarding the first round.

Radio silence

Stubb came out ahead in the first round on January 28 with 27.2% of votes, while Haavisto came in a close second with 25.8% of the vote — qualifying them for the second round.

An opinion poll by public broadcaster Yle published on Thursday saw Stubb getting 54% of the vote, compared to 46% for Haavisto.

In the post-Cold War period, Helsinki maintained good relationships with Moscow.

Outgoing president Sauli Niinisto, first elected in 2012, once prided himself on his close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin before becoming one of his most trenchant critics.

Niinisto contacted him directly to announce the decision to join NATO.

Since then, there has been radio silence and neither candidate is expecting a phone call from the Kremlin if they win the election.

In August 2023, Finland observed an influx of migrants entering through its eastern border without visas.

Helsinki claimed Moscow was pushing the migrants to destabilize it, and in response closed their border in November — a move supported by both candidates.

Stubb and Haavisto, who have both served as foreign minister, share similar visions for the country’s position toward Russia, calling for additional sanctions against Moscow and support for Ukraine.

“The European Union can do much more to help Ukraine,” Haavisto said during a televised debate on Thursday evening.

“Ukraine’s road is our road, and at the moment they are fighting for the freedom of Europeans. They deserve all the support that we can give to them,” Stubb agreed.

Nuclear arms

For Helimaki, the differences between the candidates come down to nuance on certain issues, such as the storage or transport of nuclear weapons in Finland.

Haavisto does not want them on Finnish soil though he recognizes that as a member of NATO, the Nordic country must take part in exercises relating to the alliance’s nuclear policy.

Stubb meanwhile feels that the country should not exclude “any part” of NATO’s nuclear deterrence.

Given the lack of significant foreign policy differences, voters are likely to make their decision based on their political preferences, according to Matti Pesu, leading researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

“While Stubb’s liberalism is related to Western organizations and Western values, Haavisto has more of a global emphasis: the U.N., peace, development,” Pesu told AFP.

When it comes to personality, Stubb comes across as a “kind of modern politician and fairly open in how he talks,” while Haavisto “is a more traditional, more careful Finnish politician.”

Voter turnout in the first round was 75% and polling stations open at 9:00 a.m. local time and close at 8 p.m. 

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Hungary’s President Resigns Amid Uproar Over Child-Abuser Pardon

BUDAPEST, Hungary — Hungary’s conservative president resigned Saturday amid public outcry over a pardon she granted to a man convicted as an accomplice in a child sexual abuse case, a decision that unleashed an unprecedented political scandal for the long-serving nationalist government.

Katalin Novak, 46, announced in a televised message that she would step down from the presidency, an office she has held since 2022. Her decision came after more than a week of public outrage after it was revealed that she issued a presidential pardon in April 2023 to a man convicted of hiding a string of child sexual abuses in a state-run children’s home.

“I issued a pardon that caused bewilderment and unrest for many people,” Novak said Saturday. “I made a mistake.”

Novak’s resignation came as a rare piece of political turmoil for Hungary’s nationalist governing party, Fidesz, which has ruled with a constitutional majority since 2010. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Fidesz has been accused of dismantling democratic institutions and rigging the electoral system and media in its favor.

Novak, a key Orban ally and a former vice president of Fidesz, served as Hungary’s minister for families until her appointment to the presidency. She has been outspoken in advocating for family values and the protection of children.

She was the first female president in Hungary and the youngest person to hold the office.

But her term came to an end after she pardoned a man sentenced to more than three years in prison in 2018 for pressuring victims to retract their claims of sexual abuse by the institution’s director, who was sentenced to eight years for abusing at least 10 children between 2004 and 2016.

“Based on the request for clemency and the information available, I decided in April last year in favor of clemency in the belief that the convict did not abuse the vulnerability of the children entrusted to him,” Novak said Saturday. “I made a mistake, because the decision to pardon and the lack of justification were apt to raise doubts about zero tolerance for pedophilia. But here, there is not and nor can there be any doubt.”

Also implicated in the pardon was Judit Varga, another key Fidesz figure who endorsed the pardon as Hungary’s then-minister of justice. Varga was expected to lead the list of European Parliament candidates from Fidesz when elections are held this summer.

But in a Facebook post Saturday, Varga announced that she would take political responsibility for endorsing the pardon and “retire from public life, resigning my seat as a member of parliament and also as leader of the EP list.”

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Dutch Mom, 2 Adult Children Die in Hiking Accident in Switzerland

BERLIN — Three Dutch citizens were found dead in western Switzerland after an apparent hiking accident, police said Saturday.

The mother and her two adult children, who had been reported missing Thursday, were found near the Rochers-de-Naye mountain in the canton of Vaud, local police said in a statement.

The 57-year-old woman, her 25-year-old daughter and her 22-year-old son set off on a hike Wednesday morning and were not heard from since. A large-scale search operation was launched Thursday, and the grim discovery — the bodies of all three were found Friday morning about 300 meters (1,000 feet) below a steep path.

Police did not give details about the nature of the deaths or any details about the apparent accident scene.

The mother and daughter were on vacation in Switzerland while the son lived in the region, police said. The three victims were not identified by name, in line with Swiss privacy rules.

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Chinese Bank Cuts Ties to Russian Importers 

washington — A major Chinese bank for Russian importers, Chouzhou Commercial Bank, ceased operations with Russian and Belarusian companies, the Russian Vedomosti newspaper reported Wednesday. 

In addition to Chouzhou Commercial Bank, Vedomosti reported that other Chinese and Hong Kong banks are tightening regulations around transactions with Russia to ensure they comply with Western sanctions. The Kremlin has acknowledged the instability of relations between Russian companies and Chinese banks.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s government is “working” with the Chinese government to resolve the commercial problems between the two nations.

Since the West’s initial sanctions on Russia in February 2022 after its invasion of Ukraine, Chinese banks have become key commercial partners for Russian companies, facilitating increased Sino-Russian trade.

Vedomosti reported that Chouzhou’s decision was related to U.S. President Joe Biden’s December 22 executive order, which strengthened sanctions on financial institutions that aid the Russian military.

Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China at the nonprofit International Crisis group, said the move was a sign that sanctions are working.

“The United States is working harder to dissuade financial institutions from assisting Russia’s efforts to circumvent sanctions. Chinese lenders are taking note and maneuvering to avoid secondary sanctions,” Wyne told VOA in a statement.

Russian analysts said Chouzhou’s decisions, which coincide with the major Lunar New Year holiday season in China, would lead to short-term logistical delays.

“All the troubles are superimposed on the Chinese New Year, so the Russians will not be able to start solving this problem until the beginning of March,” Russian freelance economic journalist Maxim Blunt said to VOA Russian.

“This will not stop mutual trade, but it will certainly add to the problems on the railways and in the ports. Logistics chains between Russia and China are already overloaded, and now this is compounded by overstocking of warehouses and other problems.”

Blunt said Russian consumers would most likely face shortages or inflation as a result.

“Since China is Russia’s main trading partner, we should expect either a shortage or a rise in the price of a wide range of goods, from industrial equipment to wide ports,” Blunt said. “Another brick has been laid in the wall that separates Russia from the civilized market.”

Despite the increased costs, Chouzhou’s decision will not be paralyzing for Russia, according to Russian Sinologist Aleksei Chigadaev of Leipzig University. 

“Of course, the Russian economy will not collapse from this,” Chigadaev told VOA Russian. “The main segment that the bank serves seems to be small and medium-sized businesses. There is no exact customer data in the public domain.

“But judging by where it is located and which Russian companies are served in it, these are most likely small enterprises that are engaged in wholesale purchases of consumer goods, clothing, souvenirs and so on. Therefore, they will now record losses and come up with new payment schemes.”

Chigadaev said these tensions show that China is prioritizing its relationship with the U.S. over Russia.

“The Chinese do not mind making money on supplies to Russia, but as soon as it comes to choosing between the Russian market and the American market — and now the question often arises in this way — then, of course, they will choose the latter,” Chigadaev said. “This will be the end of any partnership.”

Wyne said, however, that Chouzhou’s decision does not necessarily reflect a recalibration in the Sino-Russian relationship.

“Whether one considers the frequent interactions between their presidents and defense ministers, the deepening of their military cooperation or the record trade that they posted last year, Beijing and Moscow are drawing closer, not drifting apart,” Wyne wrote.

“China appears to have concluded that it can simultaneously strengthen its ties with Russia and sustain the current thaw in its ties with the United States.” 

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King Charles’ Cancer Announcement Raises Questions

london — In British history, the secrecy of the monarch’s health has always reigned supreme. Buckingham Palace’s disclosure that King Charles III has been diagnosed with cancer shattered that longstanding tradition. 

On the heels of the shock and well-wishing that followed the official statement Monday came the surprise that the palace had announced anything at all. Indeed, the unprecedented missive was sparse on details: Charles, 75, had begun treatment for a cancer it did not name after being diagnosed during a recent corrective procedure for an enlarged prostate. The king is stepping back from public duties but carrying on state business during his treatment, which he’ll receive as an outpatient, the palace said. 

“The King has cancer,” The Times of London declared in a terse banner headline Tuesday. It was unlike any other in British history. 

Never complain, never explain, as Charles’ late mother, Queen Elizabeth II, was known to say. Charles has withheld details of his illness and treatment, and in that way is carrying on her approach. But in beaming a sliver of light from inside the palace walls and his own life, the king has broken with his mother and royal tradition.

Royals’ health a mystery

The world still does not know the cause of Elizabeth’s death in 2022 at the age of 96. In the final years of her life, the public was told only that the queen was suffering from “mobility issues.” Her death certificate listed the cause simply as “old age.” 

The British public wasn’t told that Charles’ grandfather, King George VI, had lung cancer before his death in February 1952 at the age of 56, and some historians have claimed that the king himself wasn’t told he was terminally ill. 

Given that Charles rules in a media-saturated age, “I do think it’s incumbent on him to reveal more than he’s revealed,” said Sally Bedell Smith, author of “Charles: The Passions and Paradoxes of an Improbable Life.” 

“He was admirably candid in what he said about being treated for an enlarged prostate, and his impulse was to be open and also to encourage men to have the necessary examinations,” she added. “But then he reverted to the traditional royal form, which is mystery, secrecy, opacity.” 

 

On Tuesday, former royal press secretary Simon Lewis told BBC Radio 4 that Charles’ openness about his cancer diagnosis has been his style as a monarch. 

“I think 20 years ago we would have got a very abrupt, short statement, and that’s about it,” he said. The palace statement goes as far as possible, “given that the King has had a diagnosis of cancer and, as a lot of people know, processing that is a pretty tough process.” 

One reason for disclosing his illness, the palace statement said, was “in the hope it may assist public understanding for all those around the world who are affected by cancer.” Cancer patient advocates reported glimmers of success on that front, with Cancer Research UK reporting a 42% rise in visits to its cancer information page, according to Dr. Julie Sharp, the group’s head of health and patient information. 

The jump “reflects that high-profile cancer cases often act as a prompt to encourage people to find out more or think about their own health,” she said. 

But there was another pragmatic reason: To keep control of the information in the age of lightning-fast social media and misinformation. The palace statement said Charles “has chosen to share his diagnosis to prevent speculation.” 

Privacy part of past

In the annals of power, leaders and their advisers strive to maintain — or at least, not undermine — the perception of being in strong and in control. Because to allow any perception of vulnerability or weakness could spark a fight for the gavel or the crown — or encourage a coup. 

The former Soviet Union was famous for neglecting to mention when its leaders are sick or dead — think Leonid Brezhnev, Yuri Andropov and Konstantin Chernenko, secretly sick and soon deceased one after the other in the 1980s. Each event sparked scrambles for succession. 

In the United States, there’s little to no debate about the public’s right to know the health status of their leaders. It’s a key feature of the 2024 presidential rumble between President Joe Biden, 81, and former president Donald Trump, 77, with other contenders, such as GOP hopeful Nikki Haley, arguing that they’re both too old to preside. 

And on February 1, U.S.. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin — sixth in the presidential line of succession — apologized for keeping secret his cancer diagnosis and surgery. In a rare press conference, he acknowledged missing a key chance to use the experience as a teaching moment for those he leads across the Defense Department and, even more importantly, for Black Americans. 

How much does the British public have a right to know? 

Whether the monarch owes the world more information about his health than other Britons do is a tense subject. 

Royals are private citizens but also, in a sense, part of the public trust given that they are subsidized by British taxpayers and play an important — though largely powerless — constitutional role. Unelected, they inherit their wealth under a 1,000-year-old monarchy that Republican activists have long tried to dislodge. 

And though some polls show the public is friendly toward Charles, opposition and apathy to the monarchy are both growing. In a recent study by the National Center for Social Research, just 29% of respondents thought the monarchy was “very important” — the lowest level in the center’s 40 years of research on the subject. Opposition was highest among the young. 

Remaining relevant is part of what makes Charles’ legacy and succession so urgent. Maintaining at least the appearance of vitality can be key to leaders’ pursuit of and hold on power. The king, the palace was careful to note, would step away from public-facing duties during his treatment but continue to manage other duties of state. 

In Charles’ case, succession has long been set: Next in line is his son, William, the prince of Wales. But the king’s illness makes William’s preparation more critical at a time when he’s also caring for his wife, Kate, princess of Wales, who is recovering from abdominal surgery. 

Charles’ news was received with great sympathy in a country in which 3 million people live with cancer, according to Macmillan Cancer Support, a London-based charity. On average, it says, one person is diagnosed with cancer in the UK every 90 seconds. That’s about 1,000 new cancer cases detected every day, according to the National Health Service. 

That the king has joined those ranks — and, critically for a British monarch, shared that vulnerability with the world — heralded for some a new era of transparency in an era of social media and misinformation. 

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Biden: Failure to Fund Ukraine Would Be ‘Close to Criminal Neglect’

The US Senate will consider an emergency aid package for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and other allies, but the fate of Ukraine aid is uncertain in the Republican-led House, with former President Donald Trump opposing it. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was at the White House Friday to discuss how to best help Ukraine. VOA’s Senior Diplomatic Correspondent Cindy Saine has the story.

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Hungary, EU Face Off Over New ‘Sovereignty Protection’ Law

Hungary has rejected criticism of its new ‘sovereignty protection’ law, after the European Union instigated legal action against Budapest Wednesday. The EU has concerns that the legislation breaches basic democratic rights. Henry Ridgwell has more from the Hungarian capital. Camera: Ancsin Gábor

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Hungary and EU Face Off Over New Sovereign Defense Law

budapest, hungary — Hungary has rejected criticism of its new sovereignty protection law after the European Union instigated legal action against Budapest on Wednesday over concerns the legislation breaches basic democratic rights. 

Hungary passed the Defense of National Sovereignty Act in December 2023, creating a new investigative body with sweeping powers to gather information on any groups or individuals that receive foreign funding and influence public debate. Hungary’s intelligence services can assist in investigations with little or no judicial oversight.

The legislation says that “the use of foreign funds in the context of elections should be punishable under criminal law” with a penalty of up to three years in jail.

Critics say the law could potentially target a broad range of people in public life.

“We have very vague provisions about a potential threat to sovereignty coming from foreign funding which might affect the voters in Hungary. So, we’re using very broad definitions here,” Barbara Grabowska-Moroz, senior fellow at Central European University’s Democracy Institute, said in an interview with VOA.

EU criticism

The European Union, which has repeatedly criticized what it sees as democratic backsliding in Hungary in recent years, announced Wednesday it had launched infringement proceedings against Budapest.

“The [EU] Commission considers that the laws violate EU law, in particular when it comes to the principle of democracy and the electoral rights of the EU citizens, the fundamental rights enshrined in the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, the EU Data Protection Law and several rules applicable to the internal market,” EU spokesperson Anitta Hipper told reporters in Brussels.

“In addition, the setup of a new authority with the wide-ranging powers, and a strict regime of monitoring enforcement and sanctioning, also risks to seriously harm the democracy in Hungary. In terms of the process, Hungary has now two months to reply to the letter of formal notice,” Hipper said.

Hungary repeatedly refused VOA requests for an interview.

Writing on X, government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs said the law was introduced after Hungarian opposition parties took foreign funding during the 2022 election, including from Hungarian-born U.S. financier George Soros, a frequent target of the ruling Fidesz Party. Opposition parties deny acting illegally.

The law states that “Hungary’s sovereignty is increasingly under unlawful attack. … In order to ensure democratic debate, transparency in public and social decision-making processes, disclosure of foreign interference attempts and the prevention of such attempts, an independent body should be set up to investigate them, and the use of foreign funds in the context of elections should be punishable under criminal law.”

Critics have compared the legislation to Russia’s foreign agents law, which has forced out several nongovernmental organizations and shuttered civil society.

Consolidating power

The new investigative body is another tool for the government to consolidate its grip on power, according to journalist Andras Petho, founder of the Direkt36 investigative journalism center, one of the few independent journalism organizations left in Hungary.

“Its responsibilities and its role is very vague. Basically, it can look into the activities of anyone — it can be private individuals, it can be organizations, the media, it can be civil society organizations. So, it’s very vague. That’s why we and a lot of other people think that it’s dangerous for the public discourse,” Petho told VOA.

“The government has been building this story, this narrative, for years now, that Hungary — by which they mean themselves — they are under attack from foreign interests, forces. And basically, anyone who criticizes them, or anyone who is not actually serving their interests, is part of that foreign operation,” he said.

Miklos Ligeti, head of legal affairs at Transparency International in Budapest, said the new law could target organizations like his.

“We believe that the new regulation — the whole sovereignty package — was designed to put further constraints on operations and activities of those civil society organizations which are successfully embarrassing the government,” he said.

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EU’s Dilemma: Dealing With Hungary’s Viktor Orban

Paris — Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, has long been a thorn in the European Union’s side, his many critics say, with attacks on press freedom, judicial independence, immigration and the LBGTQ community among others flouting the EU’s rule of law and democratic values.

Orban has a friendly relationship with Russian and Chinese leaders — even as ties between Brussels and Moscow are in a deep freeze, and those with China are tense.  Time and again, Hungary’s 60-year leader has obstructed or watered down a raft of EU sanctions against Russia, along with the bloc’s support for Ukraine.

But last week, Orban backed down, voting in favor of a $54 billion aid package for Ukraine, after what was reportedly extensive pressure and lobbying by the EU’s other 26 members. Still uncertain is whether the rare victory was a one-off, or will embolden the bloc’s leaders to keep their black sheep counterpart in line. Analysts say a tough approach is needed, as the EU faces new threats ahead of European Parliament and U.S. elections this year.

“I fear the EU member states drew the wrong lesson from this case,” said Daniel Hegedus, senior fellow for the German Marshall Fund policy institute, referring to the bloc’s win on Ukraine aid. “The widespread interpretation within EU capitals would be that at the end of the day Orban gives in, that it’s possible to forge a compromise with the Hungarian government.”

Rather than negotiating with Orban to reach “bad compromises,” Hegedus added, “the message should be clear [that] he’s just one step away from the red line. And if he crosses it, there will be far-reaching consequences.”

Right now, Hungary’s leader shows few signs of marching in lockstep with his mainstream EU counterparts. On Monday, his right-wing Fidesz party boycotted a Hungarian parliamentary session called to ratify EU member Sweden’s NATO bid.

On Wednesday, the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, announced it was beginning legal action against Hungary over new “sovereignty” legislation that critics see as a threat to political opponents and others — and which Brussels says violates the bloc’s democratic principles.

Over the years, the EU has fined and withheld funds from Hungary over similar concerns, with mixed success. Critics say Orban has been adept in securing concessions from the EU, in what the bluntest describe as blackmail.

Those talents have helped keep Hungary’s prime minister popular at home. Meanwhile, EU membership allows the small, central European country to hit well above its political weight, striking investment deals with major powers like China.

Isolated – for now

Yet today, Orban is more isolated than ever within the bloc, many say. His ideological ally, Poland’s populist and conservative Law and Justice party, lost October elections to a pro-EU opposition party. Unlike Orban, however, Law and Justice was staunchly anti-Russia.

Two other EU nationalist leaders — Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, and Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico — both voted in favor of the Ukraine aid package last week.

“Fico is not a follower of Orban when it comes to, for example, foreign policy,” says Zsuzsanna Vegh, a central Europe analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations research group, referring to the Slovak prime minister who has been seen as pro-Russian. “He has other considerations.”  

For her part, Meloni strongly supports both Ukraine and NATO.

Vegh and other analysts believe Hungary’s leader is looking ahead  — setting his sights on European Union parliamentary elections in June, and a U.S. presidential vote in November, when allies could come into power.  

Polls suggest right-wing, populist parties in Germany, France and elsewhere could score strongly in the EU legislative vote, which could influence the bloc’s foreign policy, including on Russia.

“Obviously, the new European Parliament will be less left-leaning and liberal minded, less progressive,” the German Marshall Fund’s Hegedus said. “The nationalist conservative forces will have a much larger representation.”

The European Commission is also set for renewal. The new right-wing governments in Europe — able to pick European commissioners — will help shape its makeup.

Orban also hopes former President Donald Trump, a NATO skeptic, will score a second term in office, many say.

“Prime Minister Orban can allow himself to play the long game,” Hegedus said. “And sit out uncomfortable periods, waiting for the better times when allies are coming into power in the European parliament and the United States — when the environment will be much more favorable for him.”  

Tougher response needed

Against this backdrop, he and others believe, mainstream Europe needs to toughen its response.

“None of us really knows why Orban is being such a disruptive, anti-EU, anti-Ukraine, anti-democratic force inside the EU,” said Judy Dempsey, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe.

“It’s puzzling. But what’s also puzzling is why [member states] didn’t take on these questions earlier on.”

“There was a lack of strategy, a lack of courage,” she added, “and just a lack of consensus to say to a member state, ‘Sign up to our values and democratic institutions — take them or leave them.’”

Beyond withholding funds, the EU has a last resort “nuclear option” that suspends voting rights of a member state, but only through a unanimous vote.

“It would be a very messy process, we know that Slovakia would block it,” fearing it could be vulnerable as well, said analyst Vegh. “But there’s a growing realization the situation is not sustainable.”

She believes the EU should stay tough with Hungary, as it was last week on Ukraine aid, and consider ways to shift to majority — rather than unanimous — voting on foreign policy matters. But the only way to really handle Orban, she believes, is through the ballot box.

“Ultimately, it’s up to Hungarians to change their government,” Vegh said. “As long as Orban is in power, the EU can expect the behavior he’s displayed for over a decade.”

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UN Committee Accuses Russia of Violating Ukrainian Child Rights

GENEVA — A U.N. watchdog group Thursday accused Russia of violating the rights of Ukrainian children in both Russian occupied territories in Ukraine and in Russia.

The U.N. Committee on the Rights of the Child, a body of 18 independent experts that monitors implementation of the convention, raised many concerns about the killings and injuries of hundreds of children by the indiscriminate use of explosive devices by Russia in Ukraine.

The committee also strongly criticized the forcible transfer and deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children to the Russian Federation “in violation of rights under the convention.”

Russia was one of six states parties whose record came under review during the committee’s latest three-week session. The states parties are the countries that ratified or acceded to the Convention on the Rights of the Child.

In presenting its major findings, committee Vice Chair Bragi Gudbrandsson highlighted “measures that Russia has taken, including the presidential decree from January 2024 providing Russian citizenship to forcibly transferred or deported children in a simplified procedure.”

He said the committee also was concerned about “evidence that suggests that children are deprived of their Ukrainian nationality in violation of the rights of a child.”

According to the Ukrainian government, at least 20,000 children have been forcibly deported to Russia. Gudbrandsson said several reliable sources have confirmed the number.

“However, Russia denied this,” he said. “They submitted information that over 700,000 children had fled to Russia, to safety, as they defined it.”

He said the committee assessed the information and evidence that was presented and “it is our conclusion that there is evidence of forceful transfer of children from Ukraine to Russia.”

“We cannot identify the number of these children, but we know there are many and we can support this with the actual measures Russia has taken to simplify procedures to acquire Russian citizenship and to place Ukrainian children with Russian families,” he said.

Russia stands accused of trying to erase Ukraine’s cultural and national identity, a charge that the committee corroborates.

Committee Chair Ann Skelton told journalists in Geneva that the Russian delegation denied that Ukrainian children were being adopted. It said that the children were being fostered by Russian families.

“On the other hand, they also acknowledged that there were a lot of children who were being given Russian citizenship, which would also in itself mean that these children were losing their identity and were being given a Russian identity. We consider it to be a very big risk for the future — these children who are being indoctrinated.”

To ensure that no child is deprived of their Ukrainian nationality in violation of their rights under the convention, the committee has asked the Russian delegation to provide information about the precise number of children taken from Ukraine and about the whereabouts of each child.

Gudbrandsson said that was important so “parents and other legal representatives can track them, including through identification of such children … so the children can be returned to their families as soon as possible.”

The committee says it has received worrying reports of sexual violence, arbitrary detention, ill-treatment, and torture of children by the Russian authorities in the occupied Ukrainian territory.

The human rights experts say they also are seriously concerned about reports of violations of children’s rights in Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, including “arbitrary arrests of children by Russian law enforcement officers, including for participation in peaceful assemblies.”

In both instances, the committee is calling on Russian authorities to investigate the crimes against children and to punish the perpetrators.

In his concluding remarks, committee Vice Chair Gudbrandsson urged the state party “to cease military operations in Ukraine without delay, to avoid further devastating consequences for children in Ukraine, Russia, and all over the world.”

In response, Alexey Vovchenko, deputy minister of labor and social protection of the Russian Federation and head of the delegation, said he valued the work of the committee and that “The state would be attentive to all the recommendations made by the committee.”

“However, the Russian Federation would not consider itself obliged to fulfill recommendations which were not aimed at fulfilling the rights of children in Russia,” he said, “but were biased and sought to interfere in the affairs of the sovereign state.”

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Volcano in Iceland Erupts Again, Spewing Lava and Cutting Heat

GRINDAVIK, Iceland — A volcano in southwestern Iceland erupted on Thursday for the third time since December, sending jets of lava into the sky and triggering the evacuation of the Blue Lagoon spa, one of the island nation’s biggest tourist attractions. 

The eruption began about 6 a.m. along a 3-kilometer (nearly 2-mile) fissure northeast of Mount Sylingarfell, the Icelandic Meteorological Office said. Several communities on the Reykjanes Peninsula were cut off from heat and hot water after a river of lava engulfed a supply pipeline. 

The eruption site is about 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) northeast of Grindavik, a coastal town of 3,800 people that was evacuated before a previous eruption on December 18. The Meteorological Office said there was no immediate threat to the town Thursday. 

Civil defense officials said no one was believed to be in Grindavik at the time of the new eruption. “They weren’t meant to be, and we don’t know about any,” Vioir Reynisson, the head of Iceland’s Civil Defense, told national broadcaster RUV. 

The Civil Defense agency said lava reached a pipeline that supplies towns on the Reykjanes Peninsula with hot water — which is used to heat homes — from the Svartsengi geothermal power plant. Authorities urged residents to use hot water and electricity sparingly, as workers rushed to lay an underground water pipe as a backup. 

The nearby Blue Lagoon thermal spa, created using excess water from the power plant, was closed when the eruption began, and all the guests were safely evacuated, RUV said. A stream of steaming lava later spread across the exit road from the spa. 

No flight disruptions were reported at nearby Keflavik, Iceland’s main airport, but hot water was cut off, airport operator Isavia said. 

The Icelandic Met Office earlier this week warned of a possible eruption after monitoring a buildup of magma, or semi-molten rock, below the ground for the past three weeks. Hundreds of small earthquakes had been measured in the area since Friday, capped by a burst of intense seismic activity about 30 minutes before the latest eruption began. 

Dramatic video from Iceland’s coast guard showed fountains of lava soaring more than 50 meters (165 feet) into the darkened skies. A plume of vapor rose about 3 kilometers (nearly 2 miles) above the volcano. 

Iceland, which sits above a volcanic hot spot in the North Atlantic, averages an eruption every four to five years. The most disruptive in recent times was the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano, which spewed huge clouds of ash into the atmosphere and led to widespread airspace closures over Europe. 

Dave McGarvie, a volcanologist who has worked extensively in Iceland, said it’s highly unlikely the “gentle, effusive” eruption would disrupt aviation because such volcanoes produce only a tiny amount of ash. 

Grindavik, about 50 kilometers (30 miles) southwest of Iceland’s capital, Reykjavik, was evacuated in November when the Svartsengi volcanic system awakened after almost 800 years with a series of earthquakes that opened large cracks in the earth north of the town. 

The volcano eventually erupted on December 18, sending lava flowing away from Grindavik. A second eruption that began on January 14 sent lava toward the town. Defensive walls that had been bolstered since the first eruption stopped some of the flow, but several buildings were consumed by the lava, and land in the town has sunk by as much as 1.5 meters (4.5 feet) because of the magma movement. 

No confirmed deaths have been reported, but a workman is missing after falling into a fissure opened by the volcano. 

Both the previous eruptions lasted only a matter of days, but they signal what Icelandic President Gudni Th. Johannesson called “a daunting period of upheaval” on the Reykjanes Peninsula, one of the most densely populated parts of Iceland. 

It’s unclear whether the residents of Grindavik will ever be able to return permanently, McGarvie said. 

“I think at the moment there is the resignation, the stoical resignation, that, for the foreseeable future, the town is basically uninhabitable,” he said. 

He said that after centuries of quiet, “people thought this area was fairly safe.” 

“It’s been a bit of a shock that it has come back to life,” he said. “Evidence that we gathered only quite recently is that eruptions could go on for decades, if not centuries, sporadically in this particular peninsula.”

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Russian Election Officials Reject Antiwar Politician’s Bid to Oppose Putin in Next Month’s Vote

TALLINN, Estonia — Antiwar politician Boris Nadezhdin was rejected Thursday as a candidate in next month’s presidential balloting by Russian election authorities, a strong signal from the Kremlin that it would tolerate no public opposition to the invasion of Ukraine.

The move by the Central Election Commission provides an even smoother path for President Vladimir Putin to win a fifth term in power. He faces only token opposition from pro-Kremlin candidates in the March 15-17 vote and is all but certain to win, given his tight control of Russia’s political system.

Nadezhdin, a local legislator in a town near Moscow, had needed to gather at least 100,000 signatures of supporters — a requirement that applies to candidates of political parties that are not represented in the Russian parliament.

The Central Election Commission declared that more than 9,000 signatures submitted by Nadezhdin’s campaign were invalid, which was enough to disqualify him. Russia’s election rules say potential candidates can have no more than 5% of their submitted signatures thrown out.

Nadezhdin, 60, has openly called for a halt to the war in Ukraine and for starting a dialogue with the West. Thousands of Russians lined up across the country last month to sign papers in support of his candidacy, an unusual show of opposition sympathies in the country’s rigidly controlled political landscape.

Speaking to officials at the election commission on Thursday, Nadezhdin asked them to postpone their decision, but they declined. He said he would appeal his disqualification in court.

“It’s not me standing here,” Nadezhdin said. “Hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens who put their signatures down for me are behind me.”

Putin is running as an independent candidate, and his campaign was required to gather at least 300,000 signatures in his support. He was swiftly allowed on the ballot earlier this year, with election officials disqualifying only 91 out of 315,000 that his campaign submitted.

Most of the opposition figures who might have challenged Putin have been either imprisoned or exiled abroad, and the vast majority of independent Russian media outlets have been banned.

Three other candidates registered to run were nominated by parties represented in parliament and weren’t required to collect signatures: Nikolai Kharitonov of the Communist Party, Leonid Slutsky of the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party and Vladislav Davankov of the New People Party.

The three parties have been largely supportive of the Kremlin’s policies. Kharitonov ran against Putin in 2004, finishing a distant second.

Exiled opposition activists threw their weight behind Nadezhdin last month, urging their supporters to sign his nomination petitions.

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said the Kremlin doesn’t view Nadezhdin as “a rival.”

Nadezhdin urged his supporters not to give up despite the setback.

“One thing happened which many could not believe: citizens sensed the possibility of changes in Russia,” he wrote in an online statement. “It was you who stood in long lines to declare to the whole world: ‘Russia will be a great and a free country.’ And I represented each of you today in the auditorium of the Central Election Commission.”

Nadezhdin is the second antiwar hopeful to be denied a place on the ballot. In December, the election commission refused to certify the candidacy of Yekaterina Duntsova, citing problems such as spelling errors in her paperwork.

Duntsova, a journalist and a former legislator from the Tver region north of Moscow, had announced plans last year to challenge Putin. Promoting a vision of a Russia as “peaceful, friendly and ready to cooperate with everyone on the principle of respect,” she said she wanted to end the fighting in Ukraine swiftly and for Moscow and Kyiv to come to the negotiating table.

Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter who became a political analyst, said the decision to keep Nadezhdin off the ballot showed how hollow the support for Putin was.

“All of Putin’s mega-popularity, which official sociology constantly broadcasts, all that ‘rally around the national leader’ that Peskov regularly talks about is, in fact, a highly artificial and unstable structure that does not withstand any contact with reality,” he said.

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NATO Allies Pressure Hungary for Blocking Sweden’s Accession

Hungary’s NATO allies are turning up the pressure on Prime Minister Viktor Orban to swiftly approve Sweden’s accession to the alliance, after lawmakers from his party refused to vote on the issue this week in parliament. Henry Ridgwell reports from Budapest.

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Russia, Iran Not Invited to Munich Security Conference

BERLIN — Russian and Iranian government officials have not been invited to this year’s Munich Security Conference, as they did not seem open to meaningful dialogue, according to the chairperson of the annual event.

The conference, attended by the world’s defense and security elite and sometimes known as “Davos for defense,” will take place in the southern German city on February 16-18.

The event will open days before the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and four months after the start of the Israel-Hamas war, which has deepened instability across the Middle East as Western nations battle Iran-backed groups in Iraq, Yemen and Syria.

Christoph Heusgen said Tuesday he hoped the meeting would discuss these conflicts as well as others that received less attention but were causing major humanitarian crises, such as the 10-month-old war in Sudan that has displaced millions.

U.S. and Chinese officials, for example, had spoken with one another for the first time in a long while at last year’s event, which led to further engagement, he told Reuters.

“So we hope Munich offers the opportunity to make these small steps,” said Heusgen, who was a longtime foreign policy adviser to former Chancellor Angela Merkel.

He also expected the attendance of high-ranking Chinese officials. Last year top diplomat Wang Yi attended the event.

Heusgen told German press agency DPA the Iranian and Russian governments had not been invited because they had not shown a serious interest in negotiations. However, Iranian and Russian non-governmental organizations had been invited, he said.

Heusgen, roundly condemned by Israel’s ambassador to Germany for warning in October against an Israeli ground offensive in Gaza, said he expected high-ranking Israeli officials to attend.

Germany was in a dilemma on Israel, he said, as it was committed to the country’s security but also disagreed with its current leadership on a number of issues and had therefore suspended bilateral government consultations.

Heusgen praised Germany’s support for Ukraine, as the second biggest provider of military help to Kyiv. However it would need to have a discussion throughout society on the importance of higher defense spending and how to finance this, he said.

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