WARSAW, Poland — Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk traveled Saturday to the country’s border with Belarus, which is also the European Union’s external border with the autocratic state, and pledged to do more to strengthen security along its entire eastern frontier.

Tusk accused Belarus, Russia’s ally, of intensifying what he called a “hybrid war” against the West by encouraging migrants to try to cross into the EU. He vowed that Poland would spare no expense on its border security.

“I know that there are more and more illegal crossings every day,” Tusk told reporters at the border, where he met with Polish army soldiers, border guard officers and police. He also cited “the growing threat resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the uncertain geopolitical situation.”

The visit to the border, Tusk’s first since he took office in December, comes after a Polish judge defected to Belarus this month. He claimed he was facing persecution in Poland, a democracy. Officials have denounced him as a traitor, and he is being investigated on suspicion of espionage.

Tusk replaced a national conservative party at odds with the EU over rule-of-law issues. That party, Law and Justice, took a strong stance against migration in a way that set it at odds with other European allies when it first took power in 2015.

Since then, though, the general mood against migration across Europe has toughened. While Tusk does not use some of the harsh anti-migrant rhetoric of his predecessors, he, too, is opposed to unregulated migration.

“This is not only Poland’s internal border, but also the border of the European Union. Therefore, I have no doubt that all of Europe will have to — and I know that we will achieve this — invest in its security by investing in Poland’s eastern border and in the security of our border,” Tusk said.

He added that he made a declaration to the commanders of the security forces at the border that “there are no limits on resources when it comes to Poland’s security.”

The visit comes weeks ahead of next month’s elections for the European Parliament, and Tusk seemed intent on sending a message to voters that his political party, Civic Coalition, favors border security and supports the uniformed officers there.

“I came today primarily so that both commanders and their subordinates have no doubt that the Polish state and the Polish government are with them in every situation, here at the border,” he said.

A crisis erupted along the EU’s eastern border with Belarus in 2021 when large numbers of migrants from the Middle East and Africa began arriving there. The EU accused Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko of encouraging the migration to destabilize the EU after it imposed sanctions on the country for an election widely viewed as fraudulent.

Poland’s previous government responded to the crisis by constructing a tall steel wall.
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BARCELONA, Spain — Carles Puigdemont, Catalonia’s fugitive former leader, stares confidently out the backseat window of a car, the sun illuminating his gaze in a campaign poster for Sunday’s critical elections in the northeastern Spanish region.

The image plays on another one imagined from six years prior when Puigdemont hid in the trunk of a car as he was smuggled across the French border, fleeing Spain’s crackdown on a failed illegal 2017 secession attempt that he had led as Catalan regional president.

Sunday’s elections will be a test to see if Catalonia wants him back as leader or if the wealthy region has moved on from secession and has more pressing worries.

Puigdemont is still technically a fugitive. But ironically, recent maneuvers by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have revitalized his political career. Sánchez promised amnesty to Puigdemont and other separatists facing charges in return for the support of separatist lawmakers in the national parliament to form a new government in Madrid. But that could now backfire and cause problems for the national government if Puigdemont, public enemy No. 1 for many Spaniards, is reelected.

Sánchez’s stake

Either from conviction or necessity, Sánchez has spent huge amounts of political capital taking decisions embraced in Catalonia but largely lambasted in the rest of the country that were aimed at wooing back voters from the separatist camp.

So far it seems to be working.

The Socialists’ candidate, Salvador Illa, is currently leading all the polls ahead of both Puigdemont and current Catalan regional president Pere Aragonès, another secessionist from a different Catalan party.

Illa won the most votes in the 2021 Catalan elections but could not stop Aragonès from keeping the separatists in power. If the Socialists win Sunday, Sánchez, who has campaigned alongside Illa, can boast that his risky bets on Catalonia have paid off.

“Carles Puigdemont is the past, we represent the future,” Illa said at a debate this week, as he focuses on social issues and casts the debate about secession as stale.

“If the Socialists have a strong showing, that will give Sánchez a boost, especially before European elections (in June),” Oriol Bartomeus, a professor of political science at the Autonomous University of Barcelona told The Associated Press.

But Illa’s chances of becoming regional president will, according to all election polling, still hinge on winning the support of other parties, including most likely Aragonès’ Republican Left of Catalonia.

Puigdemont’s pledge

Puigdemont is running on the pledge that he will finally return home — in theory under the protection provided by the amnesty — when the newly elected lawmakers convene to form a new regional government. That investiture vote would come in the weeks after the post-election negotiations between parties.

Puigdemont has moved, at least temporarily, from Waterloo, Belgium, where he has lived as a self-styled “political exile,” to a French village just north of Spain where he has campaigned with rallies by followers who have crossed the border.

He has said that if he is not restored to power he will retire from politics.

Voter priorities

The question Puigdemont, Illa, Aragonès and the other candidates now face is how much Catalonia has changed.

A record drought, not independence, is the number one concern among Catalans, according to the most recent survey by Catalonia’s public opinion office. Some 70% of would-be voters now say that the management of public services, the economy and climate change would drive their choice at the polls, while 30% say the question of independence was still their priority.

The opinion office said 50% of Catalans are against independence while 42% are for it, meaning support for it has dipped to 2012 levels. When Puigdemont left in 2017, 49% favored independence and 43% were against.

Pablo Simón, political science professor at Carlos III University in Madrid, said that the secessionist movement was in a period of uncertain transition.

“I would not dare say that the secessionist movement is dead, but I can say that we are in a period where we don’t know what will come next,” he said.
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ROME — Pope Francis pressed his campaign Friday to urge Italians to have children, calling for long-term policies to help families and warning that the country’s demographic crisis was threatening the future.

“The number of births is the first indicator of the hope of a people,” Francis told an annual gathering of pro-family groups. “Without children and young people, a country loses its desire for the future.”

It was Francis’ latest appeal for Italy – and beyond that Europe – to invert what he has called the demographic winter facing many industrialized countries.

Italy’s birth rate, already one of the lowest in the world, has been falling steadily for about 15 years and reached a record low last year with 379,000 babies born.

With the Vatican’s strong backing, the right-wing government of Premier Giorgia Meloni has mounted a campaign to encourage at least 500,000 births annually by 2033, a rate that demographers say is necessary to prevent the economy from collapsing under the weight of Italy’s aging population.

Francis called for long-term political strategies and policies to encourage couples to have children, including an end to precarious work contracts and impediments to buying homes, and viable alternatives so women don’t have to choose between motherhood and careers.

“The problem of our world is not children being born: it is selfishness, consumerism and individualism which make people sated, lonely and unhappy,” Francis said.

Francis is expected to continue emphasizing his demographic call during the upcoming 2025 Holy Year, which has hope as its main theme. In the official Jubilee decree, or papal bull, that was promulgated Thursday, Francis called for a new social covenant among Christians to encourage couples to be open to having children.
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belgrade, serbia — Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Serbia this week brought out a crowd waving Serbian and Chinese flags and praising the “ironclad” friendship of two countries. Elsewhere in the West, it raised many questions about Serbia’s future role in Europe. 

Analysts say that was exactly the idea. At a time of global rivalry between Beijing and Washington, the messages Xi delivered from Belgrade appeared aimed at a much wider audience. 

Xi and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic signed a number of bilateral agreements on Wednesday, which followed the 25th anniversary of NATO’s bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during NATO’s 1999 campaign to halt the ethnic cleansing of Albanians in Kosovo. The U.S. apologized for that action, calling it “a mistake.” 

David Shullman, an expert on China with the Washington-based Atlantic Council, told VOA that Xi’s arrival in Belgrade on the May 7 anniversary was aimed at sending a broader message in the context of the war in Ukraine: that China is not a “warmonger” like the U.S. and NATO. 

Chinese messaging, Shullman said, “parrots Russia’s messaging about the war in Ukraine, about not putting a blame on Russia, but putting a blame on the U.S., NATO for ‘fanning the flames’ of the war, continuing to support the Ukrainians, and that China is the one that’s the force for peace and stability. …  

“There is an awareness in the Chinese system [that] this is a key binding point between China and Serbia, and it fits into that message that China has been pushing about NATO and the U.S.” 

China’s president referred to the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in an op-ed published Tuesday in Serbia’s pro-government newspaper Politika: “The people of China value peace, but they will never allow a historical tragedy to happen again.”  

Paul McCarthy, director for Europe at the International Republican Institute in Washington, agreed that the timing of Xi’s visit was no accident. 

“I think that Xi’s entire visit to Europe was organized around the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing,” he said. “It is too symbolic an opportunity for the Chinese to miss and underlines, so to speak, the position of Serbia and the strategic disagreement with the West that has been going on for 25 years.” 

Xi and Vucic signed a statement on the two countries’ “shared future,” which the Serbian president described as being a level above the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership the two countries agreed to in 2016. 

According to the Atlantic Council’s Shullman, Xi has often used the phrase “shared future” to indicate he wants a new balance of power in the world. 

“The story of a shared future is how China wants to establish a global order that is less U.S.-led, that is multipolar, that is a more ‘democratic’ international order — as the Chinese say,” he said. 

“In essence, it is an order that is no longer led by the U.S. and in which China plays a more significant role.” 

He added: “The fact that Serbia is spoken of as the first European country that will be part of the community and ‘common future’ shows that for Chinese leaders, especially Xi, Serbia is of great importance … as an economic partner and as a country that is a candidate for the EU.” 

In addition, Xi’s visit to Serbia signaled to Washington that China has reliable partners in Europe and that the U.S. “will not be able to completely win over Europe to its side.”  

China owns mines and factories across Serbia and has provided billions of dollars’ worth of funding for roads, bridges and various facilities, becoming Serbia’s key partner in much-needed infrastructure development.  

Still, some experts say the future of cooperation between Belgrade and Beijing is uncertain, given the complicated relations between the U.S. and China. 

Vuk Vuksanovic, a senior researcher at the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, told VOA that broadening cooperation between Serbia and China from a strategic partnership to the level of “building a community of Serbia and China with a common future in the new era” is little more than a diplomatic game that suits both governments at the moment. 

He added that the future relationship depends much more on Beijing than on Belgrade.  

“The previous strategic partnership agreement was a joint statement from 2009 that had warm rhetoric but did not actually bring about any monumental transformation of those relations,” he said. 

“And that was until the moment when China showed greater interest in the Balkans due to the Belt and Road Initiative,” a massive, Chinese-led global infrastructure development strategy. “I think the key question for the U.S. will be whether that cooperation will include some major project in the field of defense and high technology.” 

The International Republican Institute’s McCarthy said it is unclear how the agreements between Serbia and China and the plans for a “common future” will affect Serbia’s relationship with the West. 

Still, he noted, a free-trade agreement between China and Serbia that comes into force in July “turns Serbia more towards the East,” raising the question of “how serious is Serbia on its European path.” 

He added: “I have to say that, from Washington’s perspective, they might feel like they’re losing the battle for Serbia’s heart, so to speak.” 

This article originated in VOA’s Serbian Service with contributions from Dino Jahic, Marko Protic and Stefan Miljus.
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WASHINGTON — North Macedonia elected its first woman president Wednesday as the ruling Social Democratic Union of Macedonia suffered historic losses in presidential and parliamentary elections.

With nearly all the votes counted, university professor Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, the presidential candidate of the right-wing VMRO-DPMNE opposition party, won nearly 65% of the vote, with incumbent President Stevo Pendarovski winning 29%, according to the country’s State Election Commission.

In the parliamentary contest, the VMRO-DPMNE-led coalition Your Macedonia won 43% of the votes, giving it 58 of the parliament’s 120 seats, just short of a majority.

Although it was uncertain on election day whether the 40% turnout threshold for the presidential election would be reached, due to calls for a boycott, the State Election Commission reported that turnout exceeded 46%.

In her first post-election public address, President-elect Siljanovska-Davkova promised to “act as the president of all citizens, of all ethnic groups, of party members, of those who are not in parties, because a president, especially not if she is a woman, cannot unite and search for unity if he sticks to party lines.”

VMRO-DPMNE party head Hristijan Mickoski called the election results a “historic victory for North Macedonia and the people of Macedonia,” adding that the ruling Social Democratic Union, or SDSM, lost because of “crime, corruption, incompetence, false values, the confiscated state, tenders, nepotism and a hundred other consequences that made the state suffer and the people disappointed.”

SDSM officials have repeatedly rejected these criticisms.

SDSM head Dimitar Kovacevski congratulated the victors Wednesday while telling reporters that his party’s loss was “disappointing” and “a heavy blow.”

EU and NATO considerations

The country agreed to change its name from the Republic of Macedonia to the Republic of North Macedonia in 2019 following a decadeslong dispute with Greece over the designation.

In a 2018 referendum, voters in North Macedonia approved an agreement with Greece that included changing the country’s name in order to clear the way for its European Union and NATO accession. However, turnout for the referendum was less than the 50% threshold required to validate the results, leaving parliament to approve the change.

Mickoski has refused to acknowledge the country’s name change and the 2018 agreement with Greece. The opposition also supports standing firm in ongoing linguistic and historical disputes with neighboring Bulgaria, an EU member that has blocked North Macedonia’s EU accession negotiations.

EU membership negotiations with North Macedonia — and fellow-candidate Albania — began in 2022, and the process is expected to take years.

Commenting Wednesday on North Macedonia’s elections and their potential effect on the country’s EU accession bid, Deputy U.S. Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Gabriel Escobar said, “I am confident and hope that regardless of the elections in North Macedonia, the road to Europe will continue.”

On Tuesday, European Commission spokesperson Ana Pisonero told reporters in Brussels that “North Macedonia has committed itself to constitutional changes and, from our perspective, we believe that all political forces will focus on progress in the EU integration process.”

Pisonero added: “The European Council has clearly stated what the expectations are and we, for our part, fully support the perspective of North Macedonia’s membership in the EU, and we hope that we will be able to open the negotiation process as soon as possible.”

Corruption is an issue

The European Commission reported in November that corruption, another hot-button issue, “remains prevalent in many areas” of North Macedonia.

In December, U.S. Ambassador to North Macedonia Angela Aggeler said there was “an epidemic of corruption in this country that has affected every sector, every organization, and only by exposing the corrupt actors can we begin to help the country address these issues.”

The VMRO-DPMNE has accused the SDSM and its junior coalition partner, the Democratic Union for Integration, the third-largest political party and largest ethnic Albanian political party, of causing a “corruption pandemic.”

Wednesday was the third time that Macedonian citizens in the U.S. and elsewhere outside North Macedonia voted in the country’s presidential elections.

According to the State Election Commission, more than 2,300 domestic and international observers monitored the voting.
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Warsaw, Poland — Poland’s defense minister said Thursday his country is strengthening the metal barrier along its border with Belarus to deter illegal migration.

“We are mending the barrier on the Polish-Belarusian border, we are strengthening this barrier,” Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on private Radio Zet. “The spending on these purposes is the highest in [Poland’s] history.”

Kosiniak-Kamysz said the increased presence of Polish and allied military forces in regions close to the border is also helping to tighten the eastern frontier of NATO and the European Union. That presence has been increased since Russia’s aggression in Ukraine in 2022.

He spoke in favor of Poland building a line of defensive bunkers, trenches and ditches along that border and the one with Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad, steps that the Baltic states have already taken.

Poland says a massive wave of illegal migration from Belarus, especially in 2022, was orchestrated by that country and by Russia to destabilize Poland, a Ukrainian ally, and the European Union. The influx was largely curbed by the metal barrier that Poland completed last year, but some illegal crossings continue.

The minister’s comments also suggested that the barrier is seen as a wider defense measure during Russia’s war with Ukraine, which borders Poland.
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MARSEILLE, France — French Olympic swimmer Florent Manaudou became the first Olympic torch carrier in France after the Olympic flame arrived in Marseille’s Old Port Wednesday on a majestic three-mast ship from Greece for the welcoming ceremony at sunset in the city’s Old Port. 

The ship sailed into Marseille’s old port with the French national anthem, La Marseillaise, echoing from the embankment and a French Air force flyover with planes first drawing the five Olympic rings and then the red-blue-white colors of the nation’s flag. 

The ship docked on the pontoon that reflects an athletics track and Manaudou carried the torch to mainland France as tens of thousands cheered and thousands of others waved from balconies and windows overlooking the festivities. 

“We can be proud,” said President Emmanuel Macron, who attended the ceremony to welcome the torch. 

“The flame is on French soil,” Macron said. “The games are coming to France and are entering the lives of the French people.” 

The torch was lit in Greece last month before it was officially handed to France. It left Athens aboard a ship named Belem, which was first used in 1896, and spent twelve days at sea. 

Paris 2024 Olympics Organizing Committee President Tony Estanguet said the return of the Olympic Games to France was cause for a “fantastic celebration.” 

“As a former athlete, I know how important the start of a competition is. That is why we chose Marseille, because it’s definitely one of the cities most in love with sports,” added Estanguet, a former Olympic canoeing star with gold medals from the 2000, 2004 and 2012 Games. 

Safety of visitors and residents has been a top priority for authorities in Marseille, France’s second largest city with nearly a million inhabitants. About 8,000 police officers have been deployed around the harbor. 

Thousands of firefighters and bomb disposal squads have been positioned around the city along with maritime police and anti-drone teams patrolling the city’s waters and its airspace. 

“It’s a monumental day and we have been working hard for visitors and residents of Marseille to enjoy this historical moment,” said Yannick Ohanessian, the city’s deputy mayor. 

The torch relay will start on Thursday in Marseille, before heading to Paris through iconic places across the country, from the world-famous Mont Saint-Michel to D-Day landing beaches in Normandy and the Versailles Palace. 

A heavy police and military presence was seen patrolling Marseille’s city center Tuesday, as a military helicopter flew over the Old Port, where a range of barriers have been set up. 

French Interior Ministry spokesperson Camille Chaize said officials were prepared for security threats including terrorism. 

“We’re employing various measures, notably the elite National Gendarmerie Intervention Group unit, which will be present in the torch relay from beginning to end,” she said. 

The Olympic cauldron will be lit after the Games’ opening ceremony that will take place on the River Seine on July 26. 

The cauldron will be lit at a location in Paris that is being kept top-secret until the day itself. Among reported options are such iconic spots as the Eiffel Tower and the Tuileries Gardens outside the Louvre Museum.
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Geneva — United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk on Tuesday condemned Russia’s brutal crackdown on journalists, which he says has been increasing since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. 

“The continuous attacks on free speech and the criminalization of independent journalism in Russia are very troubling,” Türk said in a prepared statement that called for the release of journalists detained “solely for doing their jobs.” 

The U.N. human rights office says the number of imprisoned journalists in Russia has reached an all-time high since Moscow began its war of aggression in Ukraine, noting that at least 30 journalists are currently detained on a variety of criminal charges. 

The charges include terrorism, extremism, spying, treason, extortion, violating the provisions of the law on foreign agents, inciting mass disturbances, illegal possession of explosives and illegal possession of drugs. 

Türk, who expressed concern about the frequent use “of the broad legislative framework to combat terrorism and extremism,” called on Russian authorities to amend the legislation in compliance “with international human rights law.” 

U.N. officials report 12 of the 30 jailed reporters are serving sentences ranging from five-and-a-half to 22 years in prison. 

“Since March, at least seven journalists have faced administrative or criminal charges,” Ravina Shamdasani, spokesperson for the high commissioner, told journalists Tuesday in Geneva. 

She observed that all seven are Russian journalists who have faced the charges “for criticism of Russia’s actions in Ukraine or for alleged links to the late opposition politician Alexey Navalny, and his Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK),” which Russia labeled extremist in 2021. 

According to the 2024 World Press Freedom Index produced by Paris-based Reporters Without Borders, Russia ranked 162nd out of 180 countries. Commenting on the designation, authors of the annual report said that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who “was unsurprisingly reelected in 2024, continues to wage a war in Ukraine” that “has had a big impact on the media ecosystem and journalists’ safety.” 

The latest report by the U.S.-based Committee to Protect Journalists finds “Russia holds a disproportionate number of foreign reporters in its jails,” noting that 12 of the 17 foreign nationals currently detained worldwide “are held by Russia.” 

Two are U.S. citizens. Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich has been held in pre-trial detention by Russia since March 2023 on charges of espionage, while Alsu Kurmasheva of VOA sister network Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has been detained since October 2023 for failing to register as a “foreign agent.” Both detainees and their employers vehemently reject the charges as bogus and politically motivated. 

The 10 other foreign journalists imprisoned by Russia are from Ukraine, including five Crimean Tatars. 

“Russia is a place where it is very risky to be a journalist these days if you are reporting on issues that are very sensitive to the authorities,” Shamdasani said. “What is worrying us is the lack of transparency. 

“The fact that independent journalists are being cracked down on leads to a level of uncertainty and facilitates a climate of misinformation, disinformation, chaos and panic for people who do not know what their rights are in these circumstances,” she said. 

U.N. human rights chief Türk is calling for an immediate end “to the intense crackdown on journalists’ independent work,” describing the right to inform as a critical “component of the right to freedom of expression [that] needs to be upheld.” 

“Journalists should be able to work in a safe environment without fear of reprisals in line with Russia’s international human rights obligations,” he said.
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Sapporo, Japan — Friction between Japan and Russia will likely escalate amidst the burgeoning Ukraine war, with the decades-long land conflicts showing no sign of thawing.

The Kremlin recently banned non-Russian vessels from waters near the Kuril Islands – known in Japan as the Northern Territories – currently occupied by Russia but claimed by Japan.

Tokyo saw the move as part of a series of Moscow threats after the recent security alliance between the United States and Japan.

There will be further retaliation from Moscow against Japan, according to James DJ Brown, professor of political science at Japan’s Temple University.

“The Putin regime feels an obligation to retaliate against what it regards as unfriendly actions by Japan,” Brown told VOA News. “Every time Tokyo does something more to assist Ukraine or to strengthen military ties with the United States, Moscow takes some measures to punish Japan.”

He said that as Japan is likely to introduce further sanctions to support Kyiv, Moscow’s retaliation is “all but guaranteed.”

The retaliatory measures aren’t just targeting Tokyo. A Russian man residing in the Kuril Islands was warned in March by a Russian court over his remarks to Japanese media that the territory had belonged to Japan in the past.

Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would visit the Kuril Islands, putting a damper on hopes for negotiations over sovereignty that both countries have attempted for decades.

Land disputes run deep

Russia and Japan’s competing claims over the four islands off the northeast coast of Hokkaido – Japan’s second-largest island – date back to at least the 19th century. Near the end of WWII, the then Soviet Union started fully occupying the Kuril Islands.

Japan claimed that the Soviet Union incorporated them “without any legal grounds” and refused to sign a peace treaty. Tokyo said about 17,000 Japanese residents were deported from the islands. The Russian public, Brown said, view the Kuril Islands as reward for the sacrifices of the Soviet people during the war.

The two countries have held talks off and on for decades to reach an agreement but to no avail.  

The conflict eased in 2016, when the two countries agreed on joint economic activities including tourism projects on the islands, as well as visa-free visits for Japanese citizens.

Two years later, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed a split of the four islands, returning two islands to Japan, but Putin rejected it. Akihiro Iwashita, professor of the Slavic-Eurasian Research Center at Japan’s Hokkaido University, called this Putin’s “failed diplomacy” toward Japan that eventually led to Tokyo taking a more hardline approach against Moscow.

“If Putin had shown goodwill to Japan, negotiating with Shinzo Abe for the peace treaty, Japan would not have taken a critical position over the Ukraine war,” Iwashita told VOA News. “Remember Japan’s hesitation to sanction Russia after its 2014 aggression against Ukraine? Japan now does not need to restrain its policy towards Russia.”

Tensions over the Ukraine war

Soon after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow put all peace treaty talks with Japan on hold and suspended the previously agreed economic activities and visa-free visits to the islands for Japanese citizens. This followed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s siding with Ukraine in the war, with Kishida calling the suspension “extremely unjust.”

Japan has been providing assistance to Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, including supplying Patriot air defense systems last year. Kishida was the first Japanese leader to visit an active war zone, to show solidarity with Ukraine and the U.S.

Moscow warned of “grave consequences” for its ties with Tokyo. That did not stop Japan from pledging $4.5 billion in aid to war-torn Ukraine last December, including $1 billion for humanitarian purposes.

Japan’s aid to Ukraine has affected residents of Hokkaido. A survey conducted by Hokkaido authorities and the Hokkaido Shimbun last year showed that over half of the respondents near the Russia-Japan border in the north felt a negative effect of the Ukraine war on local life, including reduction in fishing activities and trade, and human contacts.

In October last year, Russia banned all seafood imports from Japan, citing Tokyo’s release of wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear plant.

“Moscow used the pretense of the threat of radiation from treatment water from the Fukushima plant. In reality, it was an attempt by Moscow to punish Japan for its support for Ukraine,” Brown said.

In the survey, many also said they cannot foresee a solution for the northern territories, but a majority said they support Tokyo’s policy against Russia.

Both experts said Russia does not currently pose a military threat to Japan. Brown said, “the Russian military is present on the disputed islands, but their role is to defend the Sea of Okhotsk, which is important as a bastion for Russian nuclear submarines. It does not have the capabilities on the islands to launch an amphibious assault on Hokkaido.”

Peace treaty negotiations are expected to continue to be frozen for the foreseeable future, despite Kishida’s calls for their resumption in February this year.

“Kishida is displaying diplomatic goodwill towards Russia, but with no expectations of it being reciprocated…There is little room to fill the interest gap between the two,” said Iwashita.

He added that Russia’s pressure on Japan “will not lead to any results.”
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