Russia has long been the biggest exporter of arms to sub-Saharan Africa, but a new study indicates Western sanctions are making it harder for Moscow to sell weapons, opening the door for more Chinese-made arms.

Even before the Ukraine war, China had increased its sales of weapons to sub-Saharan Africa, exporting almost three times as many arms to the region between 2017 and 2020 as the United States, according to a report this month by the Atlantic Council. The lion’s share went to just five African countries where China has invested heavily in its key infrastructure program, the Belt and Road Initiative.

For example, in 2021, Nigeria — which is fighting an Islamist insurgency and spent $4.5 billion on its military that year — purchased 34.4% of its arms from China, with Russia accounting for more than 6% and the U.S. — while still by far the largest arms exporter globally – just over 2%.

The Atlantic Council researchers say this trend will likely continue.

“Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine may open additional opportunities for Chinese military influence in Nigeria. International sanctions in the wake of that invasion may limit the benefits of Nigeria’s 2021 agreement with Moscow for military equipment and training—and could mean an increase in Nigeria’s arms imports from China,” the report said.

“U.S. sanctions of many Russian defense contractors are forcing Nigeria to consider alternatives: China is clearly the default option as the growing relationship between China and Nigeria in the past few years has also made China the top arms exporter to Nigeria, surpassing Russia in arms exports for two consecutive years,” it found.

China, Russia exporting arms to Africa

The Atlantic Council estimated that between 2010 and 2021, Russia accounted for 24% of all arms exports to sub-Saharan Africa, China for 22% and the U.S. for 5%. China’s arms exports peaked in 2013, the year the Belt and Road Initiative was launched.

Oluwole Ojewale, a Nigerian researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, told VOA there were two reasons behind Nigeria and other African nations turning to China for arms. One, he said, is the fact that China is Africa’s largest trade partner generally. The other is that sales of Chinese arms — unlike U.S. arms exports which are governed by International Traffic in Arms regulations — don’t come with strings attached.

“It’s lax on the part of China, on the part of Russia, some of these autocratic countries, compared to the U.S.,” he said, noting that in the past Nigeria has turned to Russia for arms in its fight against Boko Haram because the U.S. was concerned their weapons could be used in abuses.

Paul Nantulya, a research associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, said the Atlantic Council data showed a “big jump” in recent Chinese arms sales compared to previous data.

“I believe that the sanctions that have been incurred by Russia, by the Russian government, by Russian defense companies is obviously a boon for China… China really stands to benefit,” he said, adding that “strategically speaking China and Russia are actually competitors when it comes to weaponry on the African continent.”

“I think one also has to mention the fact that African countries have been quite disappointed at what they’ve seen in how Russian hardware, especially tanks and heavy weapons have fared in Ukraine,” Nantulya said. “They’ve not fared very well.”

In terms of what exactly African countries are buying, Nantulya said that early on, Rwanda purchased China’s “Red Arrow” missile system, and Namibia procured patrol craft and attack vessels from China, as has Algeria. China has always had a monopoly on weapons and training in Tanzania, he said, and in Cameroon, the country’s naval assets have been fitted with high caliber Chinese guns.

The Atlantic Council said China also has graduated from selling mainly small arms to selling heavier weaponry to Africa, and Nantulya noted that “unmanned aerial vehicles have become a very popular defense article among African militaries.”

Selling drones, shopping for jets

This year, the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is fighting a rebel movement in the east, purchased nine Chinese attack drones.

The DRC is also reportedly looking to buy fighter jets and, just last week, a high-level delegation from the China-Africa Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation based in Beijing was in Kinshasa along with People’s Liberation Army officials to discuss a deal.

Thomas Newdick, a defense journalist at the U.S.-based War Zone defense technology website, told VOA that Russia does not have anything to offer comparable to China’s drones. Armed drones, he said, are good for insurgency-like situations — which abound in Africa — and countries are turning to China to purchase them because “the U.S. export guidelines for armed drones in particular are extremely strict.”

China also is selling more aircraft, where Russia used to dominate, he said.

“The Chinese footprint in terms of arms sales has been expanding rapidly, even before the war in Ukraine,” said Newdick, noting that now however, because of the war, “the Russian arms industry is struggling even to meet its domestic requirements.”

Asked for comment on its increasing arms exports to Africa, the Chinese Embassy in Washington referred questions to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing, which did not respond. The Chinese Mission to the African Union also failed to respond to request for comment, as did an A.U. spokeswoman.

As well as military hardware, China also provides regular training for African forces, as does the U.S.

“For decades, the United States demonstrated this commitment through sustained efforts to build defense capacity, particularly through professional military education, grant assistance, security agreements, joint exercises, training, and military exchanges,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson told VOA.

Regardless of where they buy their weapons, analysts say both Western-supplied weapons and Chinese weapons can fall into the wrong hands or be used in human rights abuses.

The U.S. sells billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to Saudi Arabia, an autocratic regime that has been accused of rights abuses in the war in Yemen.

“It matters less where governments of African countries choose to buy arms. What we need to underscore is that irrespective of the source, arms can still fall into the hands of organized criminal groups” including terrorists, said Ojewale.

With African governments increasingly turning to more sophisticated weapons like attack drones and missile systems, analysts expect insurgent and terrorist groups to upgrade their weapons to keep pace.
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Leaders of Central African states meeting Friday in Cameroon announced reductions and bans on some imports to encourage local production and create jobs.

The leaders from Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo say the ongoing economic slowdown is stifling development, increasing food and fuel prices, and making living conditions unbearable for a majority the region’s 55 million people.

Daniel Ona Ondo, president of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, CEMAC, said conference attendees decided that Central African states will tackle the crisis by reducing or stopping imports of clothing, food, and manufactured goods, mostly from China, Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union.

Ondo said Central African states will produce goods and grow food locally to boost their economies following a severe recession triggered in 2015 when the international price of oil dipped below $50, forcing many oil exporting countries to scale back production.

He said in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered one of the largest global economic crises in the world, and in 2022, Russia’s war in Ukraine provoked extreme price shocks and disruptions in the supply of food crops and oil in Central Africa.

Ondo said CEMAC, through its financial reforms program, is allocating about $5 million for projects, including import substitutions, over the next five years. He said the funds will be raised through contributions from member states and loans.

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Central African states relied on Russia and Ukraine for 80 percent of their wheat imports and 60 percent of petroleum products. Russia’s invasion caused disruptions in supply and price hikes, including a 40 percent spike in the cost of fuel.

CEMAC said most of the imported products could be grown locally.

Cameroon’s President Paul Biya, outgoing chairperson of the CEMAC Conference of Heads of State, said solidarity is needed among CEMAC member states to put an end to several crises that are making living conditions difficult and causing despair among civilians.

Biya said CEMAC member states that are still reluctant to reduce imports should open their borders for the free movement of goods and people, which is necessary in speeding economic growth and development.

He also said CEMAC members want to establish resilient, stable and prosperous communities at home.

The leaders agreed to continue negotiations to merge the 11-member Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) with the six-member Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) in a move to boost trade and growth.

ECCAS consists of all CEMAC member states plus Angola, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, and Sao Tome and Principe.
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Mozambique’s health minister said Friday a cholera outbreak in the area hit by Cyclone Freddy killed eight people this week and hospitalized 250 – part of 600 sickened since the record storm made landfall in February.

Health Minister Armindo Tiago told state-run Radio Mozambique the cholera victims were in the port city of Quelimane, capital of Zambezia province, the area most affected by the cyclone.

Tigao said cholera prevention is focused on 133 centers in the city that are sheltering up to 50,000 people displaced by flooding. He added that more work is needed in other provinces hit by Cyclone Freddy, a record storm that hammered the region since February.

Tiago said everyone must work to control the outbreak by boiling drinking water, cleaning and washing food, and disposing of garbage properly – especially human waste.  And, if people have symptoms such as diarrhea and vomiting, they must go to health units.   

The World Health Organization Wednesday confirmed that Mozambique is seeing a rise in cholera cases, while cases are dropping in neighboring Malawi after a record outbreak.   

The WHO said more than 40,000 cases of cholera were reported this year in Africa, more than half of them in Malawi.

Malawi gave out close to 5 million vaccination doses since the outbreak a year ago, but health authorities fear the numbers could spike there and in Mozambique if adequate measures are not taken.   

Malawi was hit the hardest by the cyclone, which has weakened to a low-pressure system, leaving hundreds dead and spreading floodwaters could be contaminated with cholera bacteria.

As the cyclone approached the southeast coast of Africa in February, Mozambique vaccinated more than 700,000 people in four provinces deemed at high risk for cholera, but Zambezia province was not among the regions targeted in the WHO-partnered vaccine drive.   

Reuters reported Mozambique on Wednesday received approval for an additional 1.3 million cholera vaccine doses to help control the spread.  
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In Mozambique, girls often drop out of school due to teen pregnancy, forced marriages, poverty, sexual violence and abuse. To help combat the problem, the U.S. Agency for International Development is providing millions of dollars over five years to promote girls’ education. Adina Sualehe has this story narrated by Salem Solomon.
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Sudan is in a political stalemate, with a long-awaited transition to civilian government yet to materialize and the country’s military rulers refusing to relinquish power. Ongoing protests against military rule have been met with force, with more than 100 protesters killed. In Khartoum, Henry Wilkins meets the family of a protester killed in February. Please be aware this story contains graphic images that many will find disturbing.
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U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with Ethiopian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen on Wednesday as part of his one-day working visit to the country.

During brief remarks made at the start of their official meeting, Blinken sounded optimistic about the November peace deal signed between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan forces.

“It’s very, very good to be back in Africa, especially to be in Ethiopia at, I think, a very important moment, a moment of hope given the peace in the north that is taking hold and that continues to move forward,” he said.

“There’s a lot to be done, but the most important thing is to continue to deepen the peace that is now taking hold in the north,” he added.

The meeting was attended by other high-level officials, including U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia Tracey Ann Jacobson and Ethiopian Ambassador to the U.S. Seleshi Beleke.

During the meeting, officials discussed the establishment of an interim regional administration in Tigray, which was part of the November peace deal.

The Ethiopian government has lifted blockades into the region since the deal, allowing the entry of humanitarian aid, and Tigrayan forces have handed over heavy weapons to the Ethiopian government.

Officials also discussed a transitional justice policy that will bring about accountability and redress for victims, according to statement from the Ethiopian government.

Rights group Amnesty International has recently called on the U.S. Secretary of State to make human rights issues central to the talks. 

Ethiopia has been lobbying to cut short a U.N.-backed investigation on human rights violations in the country, which it has said is politically motivated.

A report by the U.N. investigators, rejected by Ethiopia, found widespread violations by both sides during the war, including the government’s use of starvation as a method of warfare. 
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French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Central Africa this month has received mixed reviews, with some skeptical of his latest reset of French relations with the continent. It’s part of broader challenges Macron faces in asserting French influence — not just in Africa but also in Europe, amid a fast-changing political landscape marked by the war in Ukraine and Russia’s growing influence overseas. From Paris, Lisa Bryant reports for VOA.
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Somali officials are warning the federal and regional governments of Somalia not to underestimate the strength of militant groups al-Shabab and Islamic State as authorities plan new military operations against them.

Despite recent successes in dislodging al-Shabab from vast countryside areas in central Somalia, the militant group hit back, setting off deadly explosions and raiding military bases and installations, killing dozens.

In the latest attack Tuesday, an al-Shabab suicide car bomb targeted a building housing regional officials who have been planning mobilizations against al-Shabab in the town of Bardhere, Gedo region. The attack killed four soldiers and injured nine others.

On March 7, al-Shabab raided a military base at Janaa Cabdalle village, killing at least five soldiers.

Somali officials warn that al-Shabab’s militia strength is “intact,” and they argue recent operations did not substantially weaken the group’s strength.

“I believe on one hand they have been slightly wounded, but their strength remains intact,” said two-time former Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke. “They have been making tactical retreats lately, but their force cannot be underestimated.”

Mohamed Abdi Tall, the governor of Bakool region, which is planning to join the second phase of the offensive, says the group is particularly entrenched in the southern Jubaland and Southwest regions.

Tall said the country is large and it will require support from the federal government and volunteers to participate in the operations against al-Shabab.

He argues that al-Shabab has been building and recruiting for years and has a larger force than reported previously. He estimates that al-Shabab had “not less than 20,000 fighters” before last year’s military offensive started.

“For 15 years they have been recruiting, they readied lots of fighters,” he said. “They had lots of power. Since they have been removed from regions, we assess their strength has been destroyed, but we are not underestimating them.”

Hussein Sheikh-Ali, the national security adviser to the president of Somalia, gave a lower number for al-Shabab’s fighting personnel. “My assessment, plus or minus, is they are 10,000,” he said. “The last estimate I had couple of years ago was 14,000, but since then I don’t believe they have trained adequate numbers, and they have been involved in too many fights.”

Ali said he believes al-Shabab lost “more than a thousand” fighters within the past six months and “probably would have 2,000-3,000 injured” as a result of the military operations.

Ali insists the government itself is not underestimating al-Shabab.

“I have been somebody who always, when people were underestimating Shabab, used to warn people not to underestimate them,” he said. “But now, because they have no support from the population, their days are numbered.”

IS threat

In the remote mountains of northeastern Somalia, al-Shabab and Islamic State militants clashed this week, the latest in multiple skirmishes between the sides over the control and influence of the Cal-Miskaad highlands since late 2018.

Somalia’s IS contingent, which is smaller in size than al-Shabab, still poses a “great danger” to Somalia, experts said.

Founded by Sheikh Abdulkadir Mumin, who defected from al-Shabab in 2015, the group members occupy a small territory in the eastern parts of the semi-autonomous Puntland region.

Ahmed Mohamoud Yusuf, commissioner of Balidhidhin, a frontline district in Puntland, told VOA that IS militants have been recruiting Ethiopian fighters in recent years.

He said when the group first arrived in the area in 2015 and 2016 their numbers were estimated to be about 20 fighters. That number rose to 250 to 300 fighters, including Ethiopians, according to regional experts.

“It’s not easy to say exact figure,” Yusuf said when asked about the number of Ethiopian fighters.

The number of Ethiopian fighters is believed to be significant, and IS has previously released a propaganda video showing Ethiopians among its ranks.

 

“ISIS has always targeted Ethiopia and other African states for recruits, its main limitation is that its physical presence is limited to a very small district in northern Somalia east of Bosaso, where it has almost no vegetation, limited cover,” said Matt Bryden, Horn of Africa regional analyst.

“It moves its fighters between caves and settlements and cannot establish a viable operational presence. So however much it tries to recruit from across the continent, it really doesn’t have a solid base from which to project influence and power.”

Bryden believes al-Shabab is further ahead of IS in its regional reach, including recruiting Ethiopian fighters.

Yusuf said Puntland has been fighting IS since the militants arrived in the area and has prevented them from seizing control of an urban area.

The strategic location of the group’s hideout, which includes caves, poses danger to Puntland and Somalia, according to Sharmarke.

“Definitely these people will surprise us one day unless they are put under pressure and hunted down,” he said.

Sharmarke called for cooperation and intelligence sharing between Puntland, other states and the federal government of Somalia.

U.S. hails killing of IS leader

IS-Somalia recently came under the spotlight following the killing of one of its top foreign fighters, Bilal al-Sudani, in a special operation by U.S. forces in Cal-Miskaad mountains. The U.S. hailed the killing of al-Sudani in the January 26 counterterrorism operation.

The U.S. described him as a “key operative and facilitator for ISIS global network, as well as a number of other ISIS operatives.”

An IS defector who declined to be identified for security reasons told VOA that al-Sudani was not only the group’s finance operative but its number two leader behind the emir, Mumin.

Al-Sudani, real name Suhayl Salim, arrived in Somalia in 2006 along with his brother, Suhayb, seeking jihad in Somalia, defectors said. That is the year Islamic courts took over most of south central Somalia and defeated U.S.-backed warlords.

Omar Mohamed Abu Ayan, a former al-Shabab official, said Al-Sudani had a twin brother who died in 2008 after a mortar he was firing at the Somali presidential palace in Mogadishu malfunctioned and exploded on him.

Abu Ayan said al-Sudani had a role in the recruitment of Ethiopians.

“He came up with the idea to translate Daesh propaganda into Amharic, targeting Ethiopia,” Abu Ayan said.

Despite its limitations, IS-Somalia has enjoyed a “disproportionate influence” within Islamic State networks from Somalia to the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Uganda and down to Mozambique in southern Africa, analyst Bryden said.
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Illegal fishing is a multibillion-dollar global industry closely linked to organized crime. The trade will pose a greater threat to security as climate change warms the world’s oceans, according to a report from Britain’s Royal United Services Institute. Henry Ridgwell has more from London.
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Sudan has said it will host Russia’s first navy base in Africa, despite opposition from the West, as soon as the country completes a transition from military to civilian rule. But while some Sudanese support the business that a base would bring, local tribal leaders are opposed to a foreign military presence. Henry Wilkins reports from Port Sudan, Sudan.
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Malawi has diverted flights and suspended schools in its southern districts due to Cyclone Freddy, which has killed at least 40 people, according to the country’s disaster management agency. 

Cyclone Freddy hit Malawi on Friday and has caused damage in at least 10 districts in the country’s south.

The government in Lilongwe suspended schools in southern Malawi until further notice. In Blantyre, authorities suspended flights at the Chileka International airport for much of Sunday and Monday.

“Our officers have been deployed to rescue and provide other services to people who need rescue and we are in each of the districts because we also have police stations in these districts,” said Peter Kalaya, spokesman for Malawi’s Police Service. “But suffice to say our efforts are being hampered by the effects of the rains because the rains are still falling.”

Kalaya said the death toll will likely rise, as they expect reports from nine other affected districts.

Chipiliro Khamula, spokesman for Malawi’s Department of Disaster Preparedness, told VOA Monday rescue efforts were underway by police, the military and the Malawi Red Cross. 

“We have also set up a national emergency operations center in Limbe to facilitate coordination of preparedness interventions,” Khamula said. “Again we have also stockpiled some relief items at the humanitarian staging area in Bangula, at our Blantyre warehouse, and in some districts for effective and efficient provision of relief items in affected areas.”

Yobu Kachiwanda, spokesperson for Malawi’s Meteorological Department, said the cyclone has started to weaken and is expected to leave Malawi soon. 

“Projection is that it is still there in the next 24 to 48 hours, and will go back into Mozambique Channel as usual towards mid-week into the weekend,” Kachiwanda said.

Cyclone Freddy first appeared more than a month ago and is believed to be the longest-lasting storm in the region for the past 20 years. Since February, the cyclone has left scores of people dead across Madagascar and twice-hit Mozambique.

The storm is also expected to hit parts of Zambia and Zimbabwe this week.   
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The presidents of Botswana and Zimbabwe are to discuss scrapping passport requirements between their countries to allow for the easier flow of people and goods.

Addressing ruling party supporters over the weekend, Botswana’s president, Mokgweetsi Masisi, said he will soon meet his Zimbabwean counterpart, Emmerson Mnangagwa, to discuss the issue. 

Botswana reached a similar deal last month with Namibia, and Masisi said he also plans to discuss the issue with the Zambian president.

Some analysts are wary of Botswana’s aim to extend the open border to Zimbabwe, which has a struggling economy and is a major source of illegal migration. But Masisi said there is no reason for security concerns, as smart technology will be used at entry points.   

“Don’t think by opening borders, we will open for criminal elements,” he said. “Criminals will be caught as we will be using advanced technology.”

National security expert Pius Mokgware said while the move will benefit Botswana’s economy, it could allow criminals to cross the 840-kilometer border undetected.  

“We have to think twice on matters of security. The identity cards should be machine readable. Security features will ensure that identity cards of either country are not forged and used for other things,” Mokgware said.

Mokgware added that the proposed border arrangement could keep law enforcement agents vigilant.   

“Right now, what we are using to pick illegal immigrants is the passport, because we ask for the passport. The passport will definitely indicate when you came into Botswana and when you are expected to leave the country,” Mokgware said. “That element was not done for fun; it was done as a measure of security, because you have to control the people who are coming into the country.”

The number of Zimbabweans living illegally in Botswana is not known, but a Zimbabwean government report last year said 47,000 Zimbabweans had left for Botswana over the past decade. 

South Africa-based economist Colls Ndlovu said promoting the free movement of people within the region is key to boosting trade. 

“This is a very positive move by Botswana, which sends a very strong signal that Botswana is an outward-looking economy,” Ndlovu said. “If it continues to do so, very soon, Botswana will be the key economy in Africa characterized by free trade, free movement of people, free movement of goods and services. These are policies that are long overdue.” 

Masisi’s push to engage neighbors on opening up borders is in line with the Africa Union’s Protocol on Free Movement of Persons. 
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