KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Singapore authorities said Monday that a dredger boat reported a sudden loss in engine and steering control that led it to hit a stationary cargo tanker, causing an oil spill that has blackened part of the city-island’s southern shores.

The Netherlands-flagged dredger Vox Maxima struck the Singaporean fuel supply ship Marine Honor on Friday. It ruptured one of the cargo tanks on the Marine Honor, which leaked low-sulfur oil into the sea. The leak has been contained, but tides washed the spilled oil, which had been treated with dispersants, further along the shoreline, including to the popular resort island of Sentosa.

Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority, in a joint statement with the National Environment Agency, the National Parks Board and Sentosa Development Corp., said the master and crew members of Vox Maxima are assisting in the ongoing investigations.

Part of the beachfront at a public park, beaches at three southern islands and a nature reserve have been closed to facilitate cleanup efforts. Sentosa beaches remain open to the public, but sea activities and swimming are prohibited.

Oil Spill Response Limited, an industry-funded cooperative that responds to spills, will deploy floating containment and recovery devices to corral the oil on the water surface, where two skimmer craft will then lift the oil into storage tanks, the statement said.

More than 250 workers are involved in the cleanup. Close to 1.5 kilometers of containment booms have been set up to trap the oil and another 1.6 kilometers of temporary barriers will be laid over the next few days to prevent further spread of oil onto the shore, the statement said.

The National Parks Board also deployed oil-absorbing booms to protect mangroves at another park that hasn’t been affected so far. Members of the public who volunteered to help have been assigned to patrol the park for early signs of oil slicks.
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MELBOURNE, Australia — Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Sunday promised a new pair of giant pandas to a zoo and urged Australia to set aside its differences with Beijing at the outset of the first visit to the country by China’s second-highest ranking leader in seven years. 

China’s most powerful politician after President Xi Jinping arrived late Saturday in Adelaide, the capital of South Australia state, which has produced most of the Australian wine entering China since crippling tariffs were lifted in March that had effectively ended a 1.2 billion Australian dollar ($790 million) a year trade since 2020. 

Li’s trip has focused so far on the panda diplomacy, rebounding trade including wine and recovering diplomatic links after China initiated a reset of the relationship in 2022 that had all but collapsed during Australia’s previous conservative administration’s nine years in power. 

Relations tumbled over legislation that banned covert foreign interference in Australian politics, the exclusion of Chinese-owned telecommunications giant Huawei from rolling out the national 5G network due to security concerns, and Australia’s call for an independent investigation into the causes of and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Beijing imposed an array of official and unofficial trade blocks in 2020 on a range of Australian exports including coal, wine, beef, barley and wood that cost up to AU$20 billion ($13 billion) a year. 

All the trade bans have now been lifted except for Australian live lobster exports. Trade Minister Don Farrell predicted that impediment would also be lifted soon after Li’s visit with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. 

Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Li’s visit was the result of “two years of very deliberate, very patient work by this government to bring about a stabilization of the relationship and to work towards the removal of trade impediments.” 

“We will cooperate where we can, we will disagree where we must and we will engage in our national interest,” Wong said before joining Li at Adelaide Zoo, which has been home to China-born giant pandas Wang Wang and Fu Ni since 2009. 

Li announced that the zoo would be loaned another two pandas after the pair are due to return to China in November. 

“China will soon provide another pair of pandas that are equally beautiful, lively, cute and younger to the Adelaide Zoo, and continue the cooperation on giant pandas between China and Australia,” Li said in Mandarin, adding that zoo staff would be invited to “pick a pair.” 

Wong thanked Li for ensuring that pandas would remain the zoo’s star attraction. 

“It’s good for the economy, it’s good for South Australian jobs, it’s good for tourism, and it is a signal of goodwill, and we thank you,” Wong said. 

Li’s visit is the first to Australia by a Chinese premier in seven years and marks an improvement in relations since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s center-left Labor Party was elected in 2022. 

Li noted that Albanese in November was the first Australian prime minister to visit China since 2016. 

“China-Australia relations were back on track after a period of twists and turns,” Li said on arrival on Saturday, according to a translation released by the Chinese Embassy in Australia on Sunday. “History has proven that mutual respect, seeking common ground while shelving differences and mutually beneficial cooperation are the valuable experience in growing China-Australia relations.” 

Hundreds of pro-China demonstrators, human rights protesters and democracy activists gathered outside the zoo before Li’s visit. 

Among the protesters was former Hong Kong lawmaker Ted Hui, who fled to Australia three years ago to avoid a prison sentence for his activism. He said the panda offer was a cynical move to soften China’s image and to distract from the government’s human rights failings. 

“It’s a public relations move by the Chinese regime and, disappointingly, the Australian government is reciprocating by welcoming him and shaking hands,” Hui said. 

Hui said Li showed cowardice by entering the zoo by a rear entrance while most of the protesters and China supporters had gathered at the main entrance. But Hui and other protesters were able to shout slogans at Li from a distance inside the zoo. 

Li’s agenda became more contentious after he left Adelaide and arrived in the national capital, Canberra, late Sunday for Parliament House meetings on Monday with Albanese and other political figures. Li will visit a Chinese-controlled lithium processing plant in resource-rich Western Australia state on Tuesday. 

Albanese has said he will raise with Li recent clashes between the two countries’ militaries in the South China Sea and Yellow Sea that Australia argues endangered Australian personnel. 

Albanese will also raise the fate of China-born Australian democracy blogger Yang Hengjun, who was given a suspended death sentence by a Beijing court in February. Australia is also concerned for Hong Kong-Australia dual national Gordon Ng, who was among 14 pro-democracy activists convicted by a Hong Kong court last month for national security offenses. 

Li’s visit to Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia’s processing plant south of the Western Australia capital of Perth will underscore China’s interest in investing in critical minerals. The plant produces battery-grade lithium hydroxide for electric vehicles. 

Australia shares U.S. concerns over China’s dominance in the critical minerals, which are essential components in the world’s transition to renewable energy sources. 

Citing Australia’s national interests, Treasurer Jim Chalmers recently ordered five Chinese-linked companies to divest their shares in the rare earth mining company, Northern Minerals. 

Asked if Chinese companies could invest in processing critical minerals in Australia, Wong replied that Australia’s foreign investment framework was “open to all.” 

“We want to grow our critical minerals industry,” Wong said. 

Australia is the second stop of Li’s tour after New Zealand, and will end in Malaysia.
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KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — An oil spill caused by a dredger boat hitting a stationary cargo tanker has blackened part of Singapore’s southern coastline, including the popular resort island of Sentosa, and sparked concerns it may threaten marine wildlife as a cleanup operation was under way Sunday.

The Netherlands-flagged dredger Vox Maxima struck the Singaporean fuel supply ship Marine Honor on Friday. It damaged the cargo tank on Marine Honor, which leaked oil into the sea.

Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority said in a statement late Saturday the oil leak from the vessel had been contained, and that the oil that escaped from the damaged tanker had been treated with dispersants.

But due to the tidal current, it said the treated oil had landed along shorelines including at Sentosa and other southern islands, a nature reserve and a public beach park. Sentosa, which attracts millions of visitors annually, houses one of Singapore’s two casinos, golf courses and Southeast Asia’s only Universal Studios theme park.

Part of the beachfront at the public park and at the nature reserve have been closed to facilitate clean-up efforts, it said. The Sentosa beach will remain open to the public but sea activities and swimming are prohibited.

On Sunday, workers in orange suit were seen scooping up sand in a clean-up operation at an empty beach in Sentosa. Black water washed up on the oil-stained shore.

Authorities have deployed 18 crafts for the clean-up efforts and laid close to 1,500 meters of container booms, temporary floating barriers to trap the oil spill.

“More will be laid over the next few days to prevent further spread of oil onto the shore, and facilitate the recovery of the trapped oil off the affected shorelines and lagoons to prevent them from going back to sea,” the statement said.

Conservationists and biologists are monitoring the full extent of the damage on marine and wildlife.

Local conservation group Marine Stewards reportedly said there were photos of dead fish, otters and kingfishers covered in oil slick.

Group founder Sue Ye told Singapore Straits Times that oil spills smother and suffocate fish, birds and marine animals that have to go to the surface for air, such as turtles and dolphins.
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Taipei, Taiwan — Outgoing director of the American Institute in Taiwan, Sandra Oudkirk, has warned China against aggressive moves in the region that could spark a larger conflict.

Oudkirk made the comment in response to a question at a June 14 farewell news conference.

“The United States is profoundly devoted to a status quo in the straits and in the region … that is one of peace and stability. And that is why we have consistently urged the PRC [People’s Republic of China] to avoid coercive or provocative actions both in the Taiwan Straits and in other areas like the South China Sea and off Japan, because provocative actions are almost by definition dangerous,” she said. “They run the risk of a miscalculation or an accident that could spark a broader conflict.”

During Oudkirk’s three-year term, China conducted three island-circling military exercises against Taiwan, causing an unprecedented level of tension in the history of the American Institute in Taiwan, or AIT, which serves as Washington’s de facto embassy.

China considers self-governing Taiwan a breakaway province that must one day be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.

The U.S., like many countries, does not recognize Taiwan as a country in order to have relations with China. But Washington maintains informal diplomatic relations with Taipei through the AIT, along with direct trade and defense ties, and supports Taiwan as a self-governing democracy.

Oudkirk reiterated U.S. support for Taiwan’s defense capabilities against Chinese aggression, saying that bolstering Taiwan’s ability to defend itself was AIT’s “top priority.”

“We look forward to the delivery of the military capabilities” from the long-awaited U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, she said. Worth nearly $20 billion, they were purchased over the past several years but have seen delays in delivery.

Oudkirk blamed the COVID-19 pandemic for affecting supply chains but said the delays were gradually unwinding and to “watch this space.”

The U.S. in early June approved an $80 million sale of F-16 fighter jet spare and repair parts to Taiwan.

China’s defense ministry declared Beijing’s strong opposition to the arms sales on June 7 and urged Washington to withdraw them immediately.

Amid concerns about a potential defense vacuum in Taiwan, some analysts have suggested the U.S. move some arms and ammunition production to Taiwan.

In response, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo said on June 11 that the two countries are moving toward “possible joint production,” reported Taiwanese media.

Meanwhile, Oudkirk noted that Taiwan is looking at becoming a component supplier for the U.S. defense industry.

“We have had a variety of delegations come through Taiwan looking at cybersecurity, looking at unmanned systems, drones. I can tell there is a lot of interest there but there are still some steps in terms of meeting the standards that the U.S. puts down for its defense industrial base that Taiwan’s private companies would have to meet.”

Tzu-yun Su, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei, told VOA the technical issues for Taiwan and U.S. defense companies to expand cooperation are not big, but a major hurdle is corporate governance.

“The confidentiality of the companies, personnel safety control and information network security will be the three major factors,” said Su. “At the same time, the government laws must be connected. If Taiwanese companies can keep up with these regulations and management aspects, they will have a relatively good chance of entering the U.S. defense supply chain.”

Asked about concerns that U.S. policy to Taiwan could change if President Joe Biden is not reelected in November, Oudkirk said, “In the United States, unlike on almost any other issue of foreign policy or domestic policy, there is a broad-based, bipartisan consensus on policy towards Taiwan. So, I do not think an election would necessarily change that.”

The American Institute in Taiwan announced in late May that Raymond Greene will succeed Oudkirk as head of the office in Taipei sometime this summer.
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BANGKOK — Myanmar’s military government has launched a major effort to block free communication on the internet, shutting off access to virtual private networks — known as VPNs — which can be used to circumvent blockages of banned websites and services. 

The attempt to restrict access to information began at the end of May, according to mobile phone operators, internet service providers, a major opposition group, and media reports. 

The military government that took power in February 2021 after ousting the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi has made several attempts to throttle traffic on the internet, especially in the months immediately after their takeover. 

Reports in local media say the attack on internet usage includes random street searches of people’s mobile phones to check for VPN applications, with a fine if any are found. It is unclear if payments are an official measure. 

25 arrested for having VPNs

On Friday, the Burmese-language service of U.S. government-funded Radio Free Asia reported about 25 people from Myanmar’s central coastal Ayeyarwady region were arrested and fined by security forces this week after VPN apps were found on their mobile phones. Radio Free Asia is a sister news outlet to Voice of America. 

As the army faces strong challenges from pro-democracy guerrillas across the country in what amounts to a civil war, it has also made a regular practice of shutting down civilian communications in areas where fighting is taking place. While this may serve tactical purposes, it also makes it hard for evidence of alleged human rights abuses to become public. 

According to a report released last month by Athan, a freedom of expression advocacy group in Myanmar, nearly 90 of 330 townships across the country have had internet access or phone service — or both — cut off by authorities. 

Resistance that arose to the 2021 army takeover relied heavily on social media, especially Facebook, to organize street protests. As nonviolent resistance escalated into armed struggle and other independent media were shut down or forced underground, the need for online information increased. 

The resistance scored a victory in cybersphere when Facebook and other major social media platforms banned members of the Myanmar military because of their alleged violations of human and civil rights, and blocked ads from most military-linked commercial entities. 

Users unable to connect

This year, widely used free VPN services started failing at the end of May, with users getting messages that they could not be connected, keeping them from social media such as Facebook, WhatsApp and some websites.

VPNs connect users to their desired sites through third-party computers, making it almost impossible for internet service providers and snooping governments to see what the users are actually connecting to. 

Internet users, including online retail sellers, have been complaining for the past two weeks about slowdowns, saying they were not able to watch or upload videos and posts or send messages easily. 

Operators of Myanmar’s top telecom companies MPT, Ooredoo, Atom and the military-backed Mytel, as well as fiber internet services, told The Associated Press on Friday that access to Facebook, Instagram, X, WhatsApp and VPN services was banned nationwide at the end of May on the order of the Transport and Communications Ministry. 

The AP tried to contact a spokesperson for the Transport and Communications Ministry for comment but received no response. 

The operators said VPNs are not currently authorized for use, but suggested users try rotating through different services to see if any work. 

A test by the AP of more than two dozen VPN apps found that only one could hold a connection, and it was slow. 

The military government has not yet publicly announced the ban on VPNs. 
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washington — Thailand wishes to become the first Southeast Asian member of BRICS, a geopolitical group of developing countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

The Thai Cabinet approved the draft application letter May 28, indicating the country’s intention to join the group.

But experts suggest the membership may provide Thailand, Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, with mostly symbolic rather than concrete benefits that include existing free-trade agreements with countries such as China.

Nevertheless, the administration of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin plans to move forward with the application during a BRICS summit, set for October, in Kazan, Russia.

‘New world order’

Thailand expects the membership to enhance its participation in international economic policy and to “create a new world order,” according to a press statement by government spokesperson Chai Wacharonke.

Mihaela Papa, a senior fellow at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, told VOA by email that “joining BRICS certainly means greater exposure to China and Russia’s policy agendas and influence.”

Thailand’s enthusiasm in joining BRICS supports efforts by China and Russia to expand their economic influence in Southeast Asia, Soumya Bhowmick, an associate fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in Kolkata, India, told VOA.

“By joining BRICS, Thailand can contribute to the bloc’s collective influence in global economic policies, thereby supporting China and Russia’s strategic goals in the region,” he said.

Co-founded by Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2006, the group added South Africa in 2010. Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates became members at the start of this year.

Driven in part by threats of Western sanctions, the group has sought to develop alternatives to the U.S. dollar-based economic and financial system through initiatives like the New Development Bank and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement.

The New Development Bank provides financial assistance, such as loans and equities, among BRICS member countries akin to the U.S.-influenced World Bank Group, which provides assistance to developing countries worldwide. The CRA, meanwhile, is an agreement among the BRICS central banks for mutual support during a sudden currency crisis.

However, analysts say geopolitical tensions and differences among member countries test the bloc’s effectiveness.

While “BRICS has made significant strides in trade dynamics, the diversity among BRICS members … presents challenges in aligning interests and achieving consensus. The absence of formal trade and investment agreements further complicates the bloc’s effectiveness,” Bhowmick said.

“Joining BRICS at this stage means being one of many states in this large, informal group that increasingly acts as a bloc,” Papa said. “The group’s design — a combination of large membership, rotating country presidencies and decision-making based on consensus — does not enable any BRICS state to gain much spotlight.” 

Thailand is already a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

The latter is the first free-trade agreement embracing the largest Asian economies, including China, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea, and 11 other Asian countries.

But according to Hung Tran, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, BRICS may not bring any concrete economic results for itself or for ASEAN beyond political symbolism.   

According to Tran, Thailand’s membership with RCEP, for instance, has substantially increased Thailand’s trade with fellow Asian countries since the bloc was established at the beginning of 2022.

Trade volume for Thailand increased to $175 billion in 2023 with China, which has consolidated its position as the top trade partner of Thailand, accounting for 20% of its total trade.

Groupings such as APEC and IPEF, in which Thailand has been active, are also inspired by the United States, Tran said. 

“Joining BRICS would be a politically symbolic move for Thailand to show that it is open to all major countries or groups in the geopolitical context without being beholden to any sides — a stance in line with the ASEAN overall approach,” he said.

Accenting multilateralism

According to a press release by the Thai government, Thailand “has placed importance on multilateralism and the increased representation of developing countries in the international system, which is in line with BRICS principles.”

Thailand’s current application only starts the conversation, Papa said, and it will become clearer during the October summit how Thailand might benefit from membership in BRICS.

“Thailand has time to investigate what BRICS offers and if it works for its development,” she said. “After being invited to join the group, Argentina changed its mind, and Saudi Arabia has delayed accession.”

Eerishika Pankaj, director of the New Delhi-based Organization for Research on China and Asia, said a Thai entry into BRICS would be unlikely to prompt others in the region to follow quickly.

“Other Southeast Asian nations might be inspired … but they will still continue to proceed cautiously amidst U.S.-China rivalry,” Pankaj told VOA via email. 
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BORGO EGNAZIA, ITALY — U.S. President Joe Biden is in Apuglia, Italy, meeting with leaders of the Group of Seven wealthy democracies Thursday, aiming to address global economic security amid wars in Europe and the Middle East and U.S. rivalry with China.

The G7 leaders arrived at the luxury resort of Borgo Egnazia, the summit venue, welcomed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Meloni’s hard-right party took nearly 29% of the vote in last weekend’s European Parliament election, making her the only leader of a major Western European country to emerge from the ballots stronger.

Meanwhile Biden is dealing with a contentious reelection campaign against Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump, and a personal ordeal. On Tuesday, a day before departing for the summit, his son, Hunter, was found guilty on federal charges for possessing a gun while being addicted to drugs.

Still, Biden came to the summit hoping to convince the group to provide a $50 billion loan to Ukraine using interest from Russian frozen assets, and deal with Chinese overcapacity in strategic green technologies, including electric vehicles. 

The European Union signaled their support by announcing duties on Chinese EVs a day ahead of the summit, a move that echoed the Biden administration’s steep tariff hike on Chinese EVs and other key sectors in May.

Biden is also lending his support to key themes in Meloni’s presidency – investing in Africa, international development, and climate change. Those topics were covered in the opening session of the G7 on Thursday, followed by discussions on the Gaza and Ukraine wars. 

Gaza cease-fire

With cease-fire negotiations at a critical juncture, Biden could face tough questions from leaders on whether he is doing enough to pressure Israel to pause its military campaign, reduce civilian casualties and provide more aid for Palestinians.

Leaders are “focused on one thing overall; getting a cease-fire in place and getting the hostages home as part of that,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told VOA as he spoke to reporters on board Air Force One en route to Italy. Biden has “their full backing,” Sullivan added.

Leaders will also discuss increasing tension along the Israeli border with Lebanon, Sullivan told reporters Thursday morning. 

“They’ll compare notes on the continuing threat posed by Iran both with respect to its support for proxy forces and with respect to the Iranian nuclear program,” he added.

While the group has thrown its weight behind the cease-fire, G7 members are split on other Gaza-related issues, including the International Criminal Court’s decision last month to seek arrest warrants for the leaders of Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The United States denounced the court’s decision, and Britain called it “unhelpful.” France said it supports the court’s “fight against impunity,” while Berlin said it would arrest Netanyahu on German soil should a warrant is released.

Sullivan dismissed a United Nations inquiry result released Wednesday that alleges both Israel and Hamas committed war crimes and grave violations of international law.

“We’ve made our position clear,” he told VOA, referring to a review published in April by the State Department concluding that Israel’s campaign did not violate international humanitarian law.

Russian assets

Biden is pushing G7 leaders to provide Kyiv with a loan of up to $50 billion that will be paid back to Western allies using interest income from the $280 billion Russian assets frozen in Western financial institutions, estimated at $3 billion a year, for 10 years or more.

The goal is a leaders declaration at the end of the summit, a “framework that is not generic, that is quite specific in terms of what it would entail,” Sullivan told VOA Wednesday. Core operational details would still need to be worked out, he added. 

In April, Biden signed legislation to seize the roughly $5 billion in Russian assets that had been immobilized in U.S. financial institutions. The bulk of the money, though, $190 billion, is in Belgium, and much of the rest is in France and Germany.

“There’s a tension here between a Biden administration ambition on an issue in which they do not have the final say, hitting against very staunch European fiscal conservatism and simply the mechanics of, how do you get something done in Europe in the week of European [parliamentary] elections,” Kristine Berzina, managing director of Geostrategy North at the German Marshall Fund think tank, told VOA.

Attending the summit for the second consecutive year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is advocating for the deal to pass. He and Biden will sign a separate bilateral security agreement outlining U.S. support for Ukraine and speak in a joint press conference Thursday evening.

From Italy, Zelenskyy heads to Switzerland for a Ukraine peace conference over the weekend.

Africa, climate change and development

Meloni, a far-right politician who once called for a naval blockade to prevent African migrants from crossing the Mediterranean Sea to Europe, now wants to achieve the goal by bolstering international investments to the continent.

Most of the nearly 261,000 migrants who crossed the Mediterranean Sea from northern Africa in 2023 entered Europe through Italy, according to the United Nations.

She has aligned her G7 presidency with this agenda, and the group is set to release a statement on providing debt relief for low- and middle-income countries, dealing with irregular migration and calling for more investments in Africa.

The G7 statement will reflect the Nairobi/Washington vision that Biden signed with Kenyan President William Ruto, Sullivan said.

Meloni invited several African leaders as observers to the G7 meeting, including Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Tunisia’s Kais Saied, Kenyan President William Ruto and Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, the president of Mauritania. The invitation follows the first Italy-Africa summit in Rome in January, where Meloni launched her investment initiative called the Mattei Plan for Africa.

The Mattei Plan has been integrated into the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, which aims to mobilize $600 billion private infrastructure funding by 2027 as an alternative to Chin’s Belt and Road initiative.

On climate change, the G7 has an uphill climb. None of the group’s members are on track to meet their existing emission reduction targets for 2030 to align with the Paris Agreement goal, according to data compiled by Climate Analytics.
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STATE DEPARTMENT — The Association of Southeast Asian Nations will speed up negotiations with China on a code of conduct to mitigate the risk of conflicts in the hotly contested South China Sea, a senior official from the Southeast Asian bloc said. The bloc hopes to conclude talks by 2026.

But whether the code of conduct will be legally binding is still under discussion.

“We continue to call on all the direct parties concerned to exercise restraint,” Kao Kim Hourn, secretary-general of the association, also known as ASEAN, told reporters during a roundtable on Wednesday. “We cannot deny the fact that the situation continues to escalate.”

Kao is in Washington this week for his first working visit to promote the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the regional bloc and the United States.

Philippines seeks dialogue with China

During a seminar at the Stimson Center on Wednesday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell urged ASEAN to “send an unmistakable message about concerns with respect to provocations in what are clearly Philippine waters.”

His remarks came amid increasing tensions between China and the Philippines due to recent collisions near the waters around Second Thomas Shoal, known as Rén’ài Jiao in China.

It is an offshore maritime feature in the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, less than 370 kilometers from the Philippine Island of Palawan, and about 1111 kilometers from China’s Hainan Island, according to CSIS. 

Campbell added that Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. “does not seek a crisis” but desires a dialogue with Beijing. “We’re looking for China to cease provocative activities,” Campbell said.

According to an international tribunal’s legally binding decision issued in July 2016, Second Thomas Shoal is located within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, and China has no lawful maritime claims to the waters around this low-tide feature.

Beijing has rejected the ruling, claiming “indisputable sovereignty” over most of the South China Sea.

“All ASEAN member states exercise their own foreign policy,” Kao said, when asked if the regional bloc will issue a strong statement to support the Philippines. “In this case, it’s actually up to each member state” to decide.

Analysts still skeptical

Some analysts say that since 2017 they have repeatedly heard that a code of conduct is just around the corner, but it has never come from the claimants that really have disagreements with China.

Another sticking point is that while ASEAN has long insisted a code of conduct should be legally binding, China has never accepted this key position.

“ASEAN remains quite divided in that the non-claimants are not really invested in solving or even managing this issue and won’t risk China’s displeasure on behalf of their fellow members. This effectively leaves the claimants — the Philippines and Vietnam, in particular — often standing alone to hold the line in negotiations with China,” said Greg Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Others, including Luigi Joble, who teaches at Manila-based De La Salle University, said such a challenge — the lack of unity amid member countries’ diverse positions — “has been, unfortunately, chronic to ASEAN’s engagements with China on the issue, including the decades-long Code of Conduct on the South China Sea negotiations.”

Joble added that roadblocks to concluding the code of conduct have been encountered throughout its negotiations. This has prompted certain claimant states to exert control over disputed maritime features, despite violating established international law, hoping such developments will influence the outcome of the code of conduct negotiations.

Bloc divided about Myanmar conflict

The Southeast Asian bloc remains divided over the conflict in Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, which began more than three years ago when the junta overthrew the democratically elected government.

Authoritarian ASEAN members such as Laos and Cambodia continue to support the junta to some extent.

Other members, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore, have had some level of interaction with the Myanmar resistance.

“I believe that we cannot expect a quick fix or solution” to end the crisis in Burma, said Kao, who was born in Cambodia. “The priority should be to eliminate violence on the ground inside the country and to promote inclusive dialogue among different stakeholders so there is a political path moving forward,” he added.

Kao visited Myanmar last month. He said the country may send a nonpolitical representative to attend ASEAN foreign ministerial meetings in July in Laos’ capital, Vientiane. ASEAN will hold its summit in October.

“On political issues, we shouldn’t be expecting much of ASEAN, because member countries cannot reach a consensus that meets the needs of their political relations with countries outside ASEAN. So, they handle those individually on a bilateral basis,” said Priscilla Clapp, a senior adviser at the United States Institute of Peace.

Shortly after the military coup, the leaders of nine ASEAN member states and Myanmar junta chief General Min Aung Hlaing agreed to an immediate end to violence in the country; dialogue among all parties; the appointment of a special envoy; humanitarian assistance by ASEAN; and the special envoy’s visit to Myanmar to meet with all parties.

“The five-point consensus, I think, is basically dead,” Clapp told VOA, citing conditions that the resistance has rejected as unreasonable, including the impracticality of holding new elections under the current circumstances in the country and accepting a return to the 2008 military constitution.

She added that ASEAN’s special envoy cannot make any progress in ending the conflict without engaging Myanmar’s National Unity Government — which views itself as a shadow government — as well as other major parties to the conflict.
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Bangkok — Myanmar’s economy shows no signs of recovering from the 2021 military coup, as civil war drives more workers abroad, pushes inflation into triple digits in some parts of the country and pulls it deeper into poverty, a new World Bank report says.

“Livelihoods Under Threat,” launched Wednesday in Myanmar, says the economy shuffled along over the past year with gross domestic product growing at a meager 1%. The same is expected for next year.

While staving off recession, slow growth still leaves Myanmar’s once-booming economy 10% smaller than it was before the country’s military ousted the democratically elected government more than three years ago.

Resistance groups have made major battlefield gains against the junta since late last year and are believed to control more than half the country, including some key border trade routes.

“The overall storyline is that the economy remains weak and fragile overall. Operating conditions for businesses of all sizes and all sectors remain very difficult,” World Bank senior economist Kim Edwards said at the report’s launch.

The bank says overall inflation rose some 30% in the year leading up to September 2023, and even more in areas where fighting has been fiercest.

“You can see in the conflict-affected states and regions — Kayin, Kachin, Sagaing, northern Shan, Kayah — price rises of 40 to 50%,” Edwards said.

“And then in Rakhine, where … there’s been particular problems and increasing conflict recently, we’ve seen price rises of 200% over the year. So, very substantial. And obviously, it has very significant effects for food insecurity,” he said.

The United Nations’ World Food Program says food insecurity now plagues a quarter of Myanmar’s 55 million people, especially the more than 3 million displaced by the fighting.

In Wednesday’s report, the World Bank also estimates that nearly one-third of the population now lives in poverty.

“And we see the depth and severity of poverty. So, this is really a measure of how poor people in poverty actually are — worsening also in 2023, meaning that poverty is more entrenched than at any time in the last six years,” Edwards said.

The bank says much of the inflation is being driven by the steady depreciation of the currency, the kyat. While the official exchange rate remains stuck at 2,100 to the U.S. dollar, trading of the kyat on the black market soared past 4,500 to the dollar in May.

The junta has imposed several controls to conserve its dwindling foreign currency reserves. Last month, it urged companies doing business abroad to barter with their trade partners and settle bills with their wares instead of cash.

At the same time, the bank says border trade — a major source of tax revenue for the regime — is being hit hard by the gains the resistance has been making along Myanmar’s frontiers with China, India and Thailand. It says imports and exports by land fell 50% and 44% respectively, in the past six months.

The junta has leaned heavily on oil and gas revenue, but with little investment for exploration of new reserves, those exports are likely to start falling in the coming years, as well, Edwards said.

More of what the junta does earn is going to the military at the expense of other basic services. According to the report, defense spending hit 17% of the national budget in the fiscal year that ended in March, nearly twice what was spent on health and education combined.

Encouraging news

The World Bank says manufacturing and agriculture output in Myanmar have started to pick up, and a combination of cheaper fertilizer and higher crop prices could keep the farming sector growing.

Traders stymied by blocked border gates also seem to be shifting some of their traffic to new routes on land and sea.

“There are some signs of life,” Edwards said. “And these really speak to the adaptability of many of Myanmar’s businesses and their ability to cope with what, under any objective circumstances, are very difficult business constraints and conditions.”

Even so, Edwards said, “The near-term outlook remains quite weak, with the economy failing to recover from its recent, very sharp contraction.”

Htwe Htwe Thein, an associate professor at Australia’s Curtin University who has been studying Myanmar’s business and economic development for two decades, said she could not recall a worse time for Myanmar’s economy.

“The state of the economy has never been this low in terms of prospects, in terms of … the trajectory,” she told VOA.

“The only people who are doing well … is a very, very small percentage at the top who are working with the junta,” she said. “Everybody else is suffering severely.”

Amid the fierce inflation, falling wages and dwindling job prospects, Thein said, the young are losing hope and grasping at any opportunity to work or study abroad.

She added that the junta’s efforts to shore up the economy have been ad hoc and short-sighted, and that rebuilding will take years and can only be achieved if and when the junta is out of power.
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Inter-Korean relations have sunk to their lowest level in years as both countries intensify cross-border psychological warfare. The developments began with North Korea sending waste-filled balloons into the South. VOA’s William Gallo has more details from near the Korean border.
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