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Author: SeeEA
Myanmar ethnic armed group seizes tourist beachfront town
Yangon, Myanmar — A Myanmar ethnic armed group has seized the country’s most popular beach resort town, with junta troops holed up in a nearby airport, military and local sources told AFP on Tuesday.
Clashes have rocked western Rakhine state since the Arakan Army attacked the military there in November, ending a ceasefire that had largely held since the 2021 military coup.
For days, fighting has raged around Ngapali beach in the south of the state, where upmarket resorts dot the pristine, palm-fringed sands of the Indian Ocean.
The town of Thandwe, a few kilometers from the beach and home to the local airport, was largely deserted as of Monday, a resident who fled that day told AFP.
“Almost everyone in the town has fled… Very few people are now in Thandwe,” said the resident, who requested anonymity for security reasons.
“A rocket shell landed in the town yesterday. We also heard continuous heavy artillery shelling.”
A military source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP security forces had retreated to the airport and were in control of the site.
A local hotel owner who was no longer in the town told AFP his staff said the military had carried out airstrikes near the airport on Monday.
His employees told him there were “some army and police trapped inside the airport building.”
AFP was unable to reach a junta spokesman for comment and has contacted an Arakan Army spokesman.
Thandwe airport has been closed since early this month as Arakan Army fighters launched attacks in the area.
Analysts say many of the hotels and resorts at Ngapali are owned by businessmen close to the junta or are part of the military’s sprawling business empire that includes gems, tourism, tobacco and real estate.
Since launching its offensive in November, the Arakan Army has seized territory along the border with India and Bangladesh, piling further pressure on the junta as it battles opponents elsewhere across the Southeast Asian country.
State capital Sittwe is one of the few holdouts for junta troops in Rakhine state.
The Arakan Army, which says it is fighting for autonomy for the state’s ethnic Rakhine population, has vowed to capture the city, home to an India-backed deep sea port and around 200,000 people.
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Mongolians to vote in poll dominated by corruption worries
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia — Mongolians go to the polls Friday in parliamentary elections, with the ruling party expected to hold its majority despite voter fatigue over corruption and concern about inflation and the state of the economy.
People across the vast, sparsely-populated nation of 3.4 million will elect 126 members of the State Great Khural, a democratic exercise in a country surrounded by authoritarian powers China and Russia.
Streets across the capital Ulaanbaatar are decked out with vibrant multi-colored posters advertising candidates from across the political spectrum, from pro-market liberals to hardline nationalists, populist businessmen and environmentalists.
Analysts widely expect the ruling Mongolian People’s Party, led by Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene, to retain the majority it has enjoyed since 2016, allowing it to govern the resource-rich country for the next four years.
It can credit much of its success to a boom in coal mining that fueled double digit growth and dramatically improved standards of living for many Mongolians, analysts say.
But that belies deep frustrations with the state of the economy, battered by two years of double-digit inflation — still stubbornly high at seven percent — as well as what is seen as widespread corruption.
On Sunday, as loudspeakers blared out from a packed ruling party rally in downtown Ulaanbaatar’s National Park, retired miner Tumurkhuyag Bayanmunkh, 46, complained that the politicians were “all the same.”
“The parliament is full of wealthy people who promise changes and improvements, but they forget us the next day,” Bayanmunkh told AFP as his grandchildren played nearby.
“I worked in the mine for 25, 26 years but I can’t afford anything,” he explained. “A few elites benefit from the (mining) sector, not the ordinary people.”
The ruling party has promised to crack down on corruption since unrest in late 2022, when hundreds took to the streets of Ulaanbaatar to protest against “coal theft” by officials linked to state coal firms.
But under its rule, Mongolia has plummeted in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.
“The middle class is shrinking, real incomes are stagnating, and people very much feel like they’re not getting the benefits of the mining wealth that is coming to this country,” Munkhnaran Bayarlkhagva, an analyst and former adviser on the National Security Council of Mongolia, told AFP.
The ruling party has also presided over a plummeting in press freedom rankings as well as notable declines in the rule of law, campaigners say.
The arrest and trial of high-profile journalist Naran Unurtsetseg sent ripples through Ulaanbaatar’s relatively small community of journalists, compounding fears over a growing crackdown on freedom of speech.
According to the Confederation of Mongolian Journalists, the country’s main press NGO, 20 journalists are now under some kind of formal investigation for their reporting.
And a survey by the Sant Maral Foundation, Mongolia’s top independent polling body, suggested more than a third of Mongolians now believe the country is “changing into a dictatorship.”
Sunday’s rally was largely attended by older Ulaanbaatar residents, illustrating a stark generational divide in a country with an overwhelming young population, with an average age of 26 and where almost two thirds are under 35.
Twenty-six-year-old IT worker Norovbanzad Ganbat told AFP she was unimpressed by the choices on offer.
“Young people don’t vote for (the MPP),” she said.
Many people her age are giving up on Mongolia altogether, choosing to go to South Korea or the United States in search of a better life, Ganbat said.
“I don’t want that. I want to live and work happily in my country. I want young people to be valued more,” she said.
“Young people are undervalued — after we complete higher education, our degree, knowledge and talent is undervalued. The average salary is too low,” she told AFP.
The successor to the Communist party that ruled Mongolia with an iron grip for almost 70 years, the governing MPP remains popular, particularly among rural, older voters, and commands a sprawling campaigning apparatus across Mongolia.
It has benefited from a divided opposition Democratic Party, whose pro-market policies in the last decade remain widely blamed for the country’s grinding income inequality.
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Signs emerge North Korea-Russia defense pact making China anxious
State Department — The United States is carefully studying a new mutual defense pact between Russia and North Korea, which Washington believes could aid Pyongyang in its nuclear and long-range missile development programs.
There are also signs of tensions between North Korea and its longstanding ally, China, following the signing of the agreement.
China anxious
In a keynote address on sustaining U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific at the Council on Foreign Relations Monday, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said China is probably worried that North Korea will be encouraged to take provocative steps that could lead to a crisis in Northeast Asia.
“I think it is fair to say that China is somewhat anxious about what’s going on between Russia and North Korea. They have indicated so in some of our interactions, and we can see some tension associated with this,” Campbell said.
Campbell said he had a call with South Korean officials Sunday night to discuss next steps to enhance deterrence more clearly.
“We believe that that there are discussions about what North Korea gets in exchange [from the deal with Russia] and they could be associated with its nuclear, long range missile development plans,” he said.
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang for the first time in more than 20 years. U.S. officials have said while there are limits to their partnership, it cannot be ignored.
The State Department’s second-ranking diplomat also voiced concerns over China and North Korea’s support for Russia’s efforts to rebuild its defense industrial base since the start of its war on Ukraine.
South China Sea tensions
Campbell said Washington has “significantly démarched Chinese interlocutors” following what he called “Beijing’s military provocations” in the South and East China Sea and near the waters around the Second Thomas Shoal, known as Rénài Jiao in China and Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines.
According to an international tribunal’s legally binding decision issued in July 2016, the Second Thomas Shoal is located within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, and China has no lawful maritime claims to the waters around this low-tide feature. Beijing has rejected the ruling.
“The Philippines are very cautious at this juncture. They do not seek a crisis with China. They are seeking dialogue,” Campbell said. “They’re seeking discussion, and they want the United States to be purposeful with other allies and partners about our goals to maintain peace and stability and to send a very clear message of deterrence and reassurance.”
However, he stopped short of stating whether Washington would invoke a mutual defense treaty with Manila. “I’m not going to speculate in public. I will say we have continually reaffirmed its significance and relevance to these situations at the highest level,” he said.
In a phone call with Philippine Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs Maria Theresa Lazaro last week, Campbell reaffirmed that Article IV of the 1951 United States-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft — including those of its coast guard — anywhere in the South China Sea, according to the State Department.
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Chinese hackers have stepped up attacks on Taiwanese organizations, cybersecurity firm says
Hong Kong — A suspected Chinese state-sponsored hacking group has stepped up its targeting of Taiwanese organizations, particularly those in sectors such as government, education, technology and diplomacy, according to cybersecurity intelligence company Recorded Future.
In recent years, relations between China and Taiwan, a self-governed island across the Taiwan Strait that Beijing claims as its territory, have deteriorated. The cyberattacks by the group known as RedJulliett were observed between November 2023 and April 2024, during the lead up to Taiwan’s presidential elections in January and the subsequent change in administration.
RedJuliett has targeted Taiwanese organizations in the past, but this is the first time that activity was seen at such a scale, a Recorded Future analyst said, speaking on condition of anonymity out of safety concerns.
The report said RedJuliett attacked 24 organizations, including government agencies in places like Laos, Kenya and Rwanda, as well as Taiwan.
It also hacked into websites of religious organizations in Hong Kong and South Korea, a U.S university and a Djiboutian university. The report did not identify the organizations.
Recorded Future said RedJuliett accessed the servers of those places via a vulnerability in their SoftEther enterprise virtual private network, or VPN software, an open-source VPN that allows remote connections to an organization’s networks.
RedJuliett has been observed attempting to break into systems of more than 70 Taiwanese organizations including three universities, an optoelectronics company and a facial recognition company that has contracts with the government.
It was unclear if RedJuliett managed to break into those organizations: Recorded Future only said it observed the attempts to identify vulnerabilities in their networks.
RedJuliett’s hacking patterns match those of Chinese state-sponsored groups, according to Recorded Future.
It said that based on the geolocations of IP addresses, RedJulliett is likely based out of the city of Fuzhou, in China’s southern Fujian province, whose coast faces Taiwan.
“Given the close geographical proximity between Fuzhou and Taiwan, Chinese intelligence services operating in Fuzhou are likely tasked with intelligence collection against Taiwanese targets,” the report said.
“RedJuliett is likely targeting Taiwan to collect intelligence and support Beijing’s policy-making on cross-strait relations,” the Recorded Future report said.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson dismissed the allegations.
“I don’t know the specifics of what you mentioned, but I can tell you that it’s not the first time the company you mentioned has fabricated disinformation on so-called Chinese hacking operations. There is absolutely no professionalism or credibility to speak of in what the company does,” the spokesperson, Mao Ning, said.
Microsoft reported in August last year that RedJuliett, which Microsoft tracks under the name Flax Typhoon, was targeting Taiwanese organizations.
China has in recent years stepped up military drills around Taiwan and imposed economic and diplomatic pressure on the island.
Relations between Taiwan and Beijing worsened further after the election in January of Taiwan’s new president Lai Ching-te, who China has deemed a “separatist,” after he said in his inauguration speech that Taiwan and China were not subordinate to each other. Like his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, Lai has said that there is no need to declare Taiwanese independence because it is already an independent sovereign state.
Like many other countries including the U.S., China has been known to engage in cyberespionage. Earlier this year, the U.S. and Britain accused China of a sweeping cyberespionage campaign that allegedly hit millions of people.
Beijing has consistently denied engaging in any form of state-sponsored hacking, instead saying that China itself is a major target of cyberattacks.
According to Recorded Future, Chinese state-sponsored groups will likely continue to target Taiwanese government agencies, universities and critical technology companies via “public-facing” devices such as open-source VPN software, which provide limited visibility and logging capabilities.
Companies and organizations can best protect themselves by prioritizing and patching vulnerabilities once they become known, Recorded Future’s threat intelligence analyst said.
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Why Vietnam drought may spike global espresso prices
Gia Lai Province — Vietnam’s coffee growers have been hit hard by the worst drought in nearly a decade this year, and that could mean a morning espresso is about to get more costly.
The country is the world’s second biggest coffee producer and the top producer of robusta beans, the variety most commonly found in espressos and instant coffees.
Domestic forecasts for next season’s harvest in Vietnam remain grim, with the nation’s Mercantile Exchange expecting a 10-16% fall in output due to the extreme heat.
Doan Van Thang is a 39-year-old coffee farmer from the central Gia Lai province.
“The drought dried up this whole area and the surrounding areas, and the water shortage is so severe that compared to last year, the harvest of coffee cherries is very low. We lost a lot of the output. It’s very small, very low this year.”
With the price of coffee beans hitting a record high, farmers are enjoying the extra cash.
They are also trying out new tactics to protect trees in the heatwave, like letting them grow for longer, allowing their roots to access deeper water reserves.
Growers also soften the soil around plants, or cover it with leaves to improve absorption of rainwater and fertilizers.
And a return of rainfall in recent weeks has improved the outlook, boosting confidence among farmers and officials.
But it remains unclear whether the improved weather conditions and new farming practices will help boost output and drive down prices of robusta beans.
“We farmers should be happy when the price increases, but due to this drought, we are not very happy because the price increases but the output decreases. So in general, we’re happy and we’re sad at the same time because the climate changes erratically, and we can’t grasp those changes, so we are more sad than happy because the output has decreased much more compared to previous years.”
The United States Department of Agriculture has been far less pessimistic than domestic projections – estimating Vietnam’s next harvest to be roughly steady.
Whatever the impact on the harvest, coffee costs for drinkers around the world are likely to rise.
While record wholesale prices have so far had a limited impact on consumer prices, there are signs that might be changing.
Recent data from Eurostat showed coffee inflation up by 1.6% in the European Union in April and 2.5% in robusta-loving Italy.
That’s still well below price rises from a year earlier, but it was higher than 1% in the March EU reading – a sign roasters may have started to pass their higher costs on to consumers.
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Investigation continues into attack on office of Jewish Australian lawmaker
SYDNEY — State and federal police in Australia are coordinating an investigation into an attack by a masked gang on the Melbourne office of a Jewish lawmaker.
Windows were smashed, and fires were lit, and the slogan “Zionism is fascism” was painted in red over a picture of the face of Josh Burns, a member of Australia’s House of Representatives.
Investigators in the state of Victoria believe a group of at least five people broke windows, spray-painted anti-Semitic slogans and threw red paint into Burns’ office.
Police have confirmed the masked group also started two small fires. No one was hurt in Wednesday’s attack, but residents living in apartments above the lawmaker’s office in Melbourne had to be evacuated. No arrests have yet been made.
A chorus of politicians and community groups has condemned the vandalism.
The Anti-Defamation Commission, a Jewish campaign group, said it was an “assault on our democracy and our sense of safety.”
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told Australian radio that it was a distressing escalation of tensions that have been inflamed since the start of Israel’s war with Gaza in October.
Burns said the assault on his office was “premeditated, reckless and dangerous” and that he had been targeted in the past by vandals defacing his election posters.
He told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. that the abuse has been escalating.
“Since the war in the Middle East began on Oct. 7, you know, my staff have been at the receiving end of some pretty horrendous comments and abuse on the phones,” he said. “You know, I really do not want to see an escalation in political violence in Australia. We do not want to see a conflict on the other side of the world to be arriving here on our communities and our streets and in our neighborhoods. We want to remain the wonderful and peaceful multicultural Australia, where people are respected and free to live their lives in the Australian way.”
Australia has said Israel has the right to defend itself after the Oct.. 7 attack by Hamas militants.
Australia advocates a two-state solution in which Israel and a future Palestinian state coexist within internationally recognized borders.
Earlier this month, pro-Palestinian graffiti was daubed on the offices of senior government officials, including Attorney General Mark Dreyfus and Immigration Minister Andrew Giles.
Police in Victoria state have been monitoring suspected crimes incited by the conflict in Gaza. Around 200 incidents have been reported, and 60 people have been arrested for alleged criminal damage and offensive behavior. Official data has shown that of the incidents reportedly linked to religious affiliation, 88 related to antisemitic attacks and 16 involved Islamophobia.
A Victorian police spokesperson has said previously that there was “no place in our community for hate crimes of any kind.”
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Firefighters find ’20 bodies’ at S Korea battery fire site: Yonhap
SEOUL, South Korea — Around 20 bodies have been found at a South Korean lithium battery factory after a massive blaze on Monday, the Yonhap news agency said, with firefighters saying they were still searching the building.
Over 100 people were working in the factory when workers heard a series of explosions from the second floor, where lithium-ion batteries are inspected and packaged, firefighter Kim Jin-young told media.
Some 78 people were confirmed safe but many more were still missing, with Yonhap saying that “about 20 bodies (were) found” at the site, after rescue workers finally managed to get inside.
Kim told media that they had managed to put out the largest fire at the factory and were pulling bodies out of the charred building.
“A rescue team has gone inside and is carrying out search and rescue operations,” he said.
Images shared by Yonhap after the fire broke out showed huge plumes of billowing grey smoke rising into the sky above the factory, with orange flames inside the building. Dozens of fire engines were seen outside.
The vast factory had an estimated 35,000 battery cells on the second floor in storage, with more batteries stored in other areas.
Lithium batteries burn hot and fast, and are difficult to control with conventional fire extinguishing methods.
“Due to fears of additional explosions, it was difficult to enter,” Kim said.
“As it is a lithium battery manufacturer, we determined that spraying water will not extinguish the fire, so we are currently using dry sand,” he added.
The lithium battery plant is owned by Aricell, a South Korean primary battery manufacturer. It is located in Hwaseong city, just south of the capital Seoul.
Lithium batteries are used in everything from laptops to electric vehicles — but can be highly explosive, with airlines, for example, imposing strict regulations on checking devices containing them.
‘Mobilize all personnel’
South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol issued emergency instructions to authorities, telling them to “mobilize all available personnel and equipment to focus on searching for and rescuing people,” his office said.
The president also warned authorities that they should “ensure the safety of firefighters considering the rapid spread of fire”.
Firefighting and rescue efforts were ongoing, and the cause of the fire was unknown.
Authorities in Hwaseong sent out a series of alerts to residents warning them to stay inside.
“There is a lot of smoke due to factory fires. Please pay attention to safety, such as refraining from going out,” one alert sent by text message said.
“Factory fire. Please detour to surrounding roads and nearby citizens please close windows,” another one read.
South Korea is a major producer of batteries, including those used in electric vehicles.
Its battery makers supply EV makers around the world, including Tesla.
South Korea is also one of the world’s largest producers of high-end semiconductors, and the government has invested heavily in key technologies including displays and batteries.
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New Zealand wins Mubadala New York Sail Grand Prix
NEW YORK — New Zealand came out victorious in the Mubadala New York Sail Grand Prix, the “world’s most exciting racing on water,” on New York’s Hudson River Sunday.
The two-day event was the penultimate race weekend of Mubadala SailGP before the competition’s fourth season concludes in San Francisco in July.
SailGP is an international sailing competition in which F50 foiling catamarans compete at 13 global destinations for a season of grand prix races. Some of this season’s previous destinations included Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Sydney, Australia.
Each grand prix consists of separate “fleet races” before the three highest-scoring teams compete in a final race to decide the champion.
This SailGP season consists of 10 world-renowned teams: Australia, Canada, Emirates Great Britain, France, Germany, New Zealand, Rockwool Denmark, Spain, Switzerland and the United States.
On Friday, Coutts announced that SailGP Season Five would feature a Brazil team, the competition’s first-ever team from South America.
“As a league, it’s an awesome place to be,” said Phil Robertson, Canada’s driver. “You got new teams and a lot of interest from a lot of countries so to have Brazil on the start line is very special and cool to expand to South America.”
Coming off its last race in Halifax, Canada, earlier this month, SailGP completed its 12th stop around the world this season in the waters between New York and New Jersey in which Canada placed second and Emirates Great Britain placed third.
The last time SailGP raced in New York was its debut season in 2019.
“Looking back on that inaugural event is like reflecting on a totally different stage in our journey,” Russell Coutts, CEO of SailGP, said in a press conference Friday. “We had just six national teams in a five-event calendar and now nearing the end of Season Four, we have 10 teams with the best of the best athletes in the sport, competing in a 13-event calendar, broadcast in 212 territories around the world.”
Approximately 9,000 ticketed attendees gathered on Governors Island and on the water Saturday and Sunday to watch the races.
Taylor Canfield, driver for the U.S. team, spoke on the significance of sailing in front of home fans in New York City and in San Francisco next month.
“It’s so cool to be here in the U.S. and these two iconic cities in New York and San Francisco,” Canfield said in Friday’s press conference. “It’s going to be amazing conditions and just perfect weather. This is the most iconic city in the world and it’s going to come alive so we’re excited about that.”
Looking forward to the final races in San Francisco next month, team Australia — reigning champion of SailGP seasons one, two and three — faces pressure to take home another win.
“It’s exciting to be in this position,” Tom Slingsby, driver for Australia, said. “For sure there’s a bit more adrenaline and there’s a bit more on the line knowing that every race really counts at the moment but I have full faith in my team. We’ve performed under pressure, we’ve won three one million dollar races.”
On July 14, one team will walk away with a $2 million prize and the title of SailGP’s season four champion.
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Russia’s North Korea defense deal may create friction with China, US top general says
Espargos, Cape Verde — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mutual defense agreement with North Korea has the potential to create friction with China, which has long been the reclusive state’s main ally, the top U.S. military officer said Sunday.
“We’ve got someone else who’s kind of nudging in now, so that may drive a little bit more friction between (China) and Russia,” Air Force General Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters during an overseas trip.
“So, it’ll be interesting to see how these three countries — how this plays out.”
Analysts said the pact, signed Wednesday, could undercut Beijing’s leverage over its two neighbors and any heightened instability could be negative for China’s global economic and strategic ambitions.
On Thursday, Putin said Russia might supply weapons to North Korea in what he suggested would be a mirror response to the Western arming of Ukraine.
Brown acknowledged U.S. concern about the deal.
But he also tempered those remarks by noting apparent limitations to the accord and expressing doubt Moscow would give North Korea “everything” it wanted.
U.S. officials have said they believe North Korea is keen to acquire fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment or materials, and other advanced technologies from Russia.
“The feedback I have on the agreement — it was a broad agreement that’s not overly binding, which gives you an indication (that) they want to work together but they don’t want to get their hands tied,” Brown said.
The treaty signed by Putin and Kim on Wednesday commits each side to provide immediate military assistance to the other in the event of armed aggression against either one of them.
Putin has said Moscow expected that its cooperation with North Korea would serve as a deterrent to the West, but that there was no need to use North Korean soldiers for the war in Ukraine.
The United States and Ukraine say North Korea has already provided Russia with significant quantities of artillery shells and ballistic missiles, which Moscow and Pyongyang deny.
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Landslide kills 8 in China’s central Hunan province after heavy rainfall
Beijing — A landslide in a mountainous area of central China has left eight people dead, state media said Sunday, as parts of the country were placed on high alert for bad weather.
Heavy rain caused a deadly landslide in a village in Hunan province, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
Four houses collapsed early Sunday and all eight missing people “have been found with no vital signs,” the channel said.
China has been experiencing extreme weather conditions and unusually high temperatures in recent months.
Climate change driven by human-emitted greenhouse gases makes extreme weather events more frequent and intense, and China is the world’s biggest emitter.
Meteorological authorities issued several red alerts — the highest in China’s four-tier warning system — for torrential rain Sunday, including in Hubei and Anhui provinces.
Downpours in southern and densely populated Guangdong province sparked inundations and landslides, with at least 38 people killed in China’s manufacturing heartland, state media said Friday.
While torrential rains have struck the south, northern China has sweated in temperatures well above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit), including in Beijing, where the mercury exceeded 40C (104F) last week.
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Thailand sets extradition hearing for Montagnard activist wanted by Hanoi
Bangkok — A Thai court has set a mid-July extradition hearing date for Vietnamese dissident Y Quynh Bdap, who was arrested in Thailand earlier this month at Vietnam’s request, Thai officials have told VOA.
Rights advocates are meanwhile urging Thailand not to force Bdap back home, fearing for his safety, and say his arrest continues the “swap mart” they claim the region’s governments are running by returning each other’s wanted dissidents.
Bdap had been living in Thailand since 2018 to evade Vietnamese authorities for fear of arrest over this human rights work. Thai police arrested him in Bangkok on June 11 for alleged immigration offenses acting on a call from Vietnam for his return.
A Thai court issued the arrest warrant “upon the request for extradition made by the Vietnamese authority, from the ruling of the Vietnamese court that Mr. Bdap was guilty on the charge of terrorism,” Thai Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nikorndej Balankura told VOA.
Maj. Gen. Khemmarin Hassiri, an adviser to Thailand’s deputy police chief, said the criminal courts have scheduled an extradition hearing for Bdap on July 15.
Vietnam wants Bdap for his alleged role fomenting a riot last year that left nine people, including four local police officers, dead, according to state media. A Vietnamese court convicted him on related terrorism charges in absentia in January and sentenced him to 10 years in jail.
The Vietnamese government has also labeled his group, Montagnards Stand for Justice, which advocates for the rights of the mostly Christian ethnic minorities of the country’s central highlands, a terrorist organization.
Bdap denied the allegations against him and the group in a brief video recorded in Thailand days before his arrest and later posted online by United Nations special rapporteur on human rights defenders Mary Lawlor. In the clip, he says he fears his imminent arrest and urges the U.N., rights groups and foreign governments to protect him.
Clarion calls
Since his arrest, rights groups have issued statements urging Thailand not to send Bdap back to Vietnam.
Sunai Phasuk, a senior researcher for Human Rights Watch, said the arrest flies in the face of Thailand’s legal obligations to protect refugees.
“The situation has now gone from bad to worse as he is facing imminent extradition to face prosecution in Vietnam. The Vietnamese government has long persecuted Christian Montagnards belonging to independent house churches, supporters of nonviolent demands for independence or autonomy, and people objecting to the transfer of land and forests traditionally used by highlanders to Vietnamese businesses and settlers,” Sunai told VOA.
“Human Rights Watch has no information on Y Quynh Bdap’s possible involvement in the riots but is gravely concerned about his safety and his receiving a fair trial in Vietnam,” he added.
Y Phic Hdok, who cofounded Montagnards Stand for Justice with Bdap and is now in the United States after fleeing Vietnam eight years ago, said his friend would be in grave danger if handed over to Vietnam.
“I urge the Thai government to respect international human rights standards and reject Vietnam’s unlawful extradition request,” he told VOA. “It will be a risk for his life if he will be deported.”
Christopher MacLeod, a Canadian lawyer working to save Bdap from being extradited, echoed the concern.
“I worry for his life and safety,” he told VOA, including his “mistreatment and abuse in prison, and [about] the message it would send, the chilling effect it would have on anyone else who wants to speak to religious freedom and tolerance.”
MacLeod said Bdap’s arrest came a day after he had a meeting at the Canadian Embassy in Bangkok about his application to resettle in Canada as a political refugee. The embassy did not reply to VOA’s request to confirm the meeting or to comment on the case.
Past as prologue
Thailand’s handling of past refugee cases also has advocates concerned.
While Thailand has at times allowed foreign dissidents wanted by their home countries to resettle elsewhere, even after arresting them, it also has a track record of forcing them back to repressive regimes, including China and Cambodia. Activists wanted by Hanoi have also gone missing while hiding in Thailand in recent years only to show up days or weeks later in custody back in Vietnam, raising concerns about possible state-sponsored kidnapping.
Thai dissidents taking refuge from their own government in neighboring countries have also gone missing or turned up dead under mysterious circumstances in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.
“Especially in the region, there has been — I don’t know if it’s formal, but certainly the informal — trading and return of political dissidents from one country to the other,” MacLeod said.
“I worry that that is playing itself out in this instance,” he added, referring to Bdap.
In a recent report, Human Rights Watch recounts 25 confirmed or suspected cases of such transnational repression of activists and dissidents across the region between 2014 and 2023, a nine-year stretch of military-run or -aligned governments in Thailand.
Sunai said the civilian administration that took office following national elections last year risks following in their footsteps.
“The current administration of PM [Prime Minister] Srettha Thavisin carries on the legacy of military rule and maintains the pattern of transnational repression, in which Thai authorities helped neighboring governments take unlawful actions against refugees and dissidents seeking shelter in Thailand,” he said.
Treaty talks
U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk raised the issue during his latest global update to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva last week.
He spoke of an “emerging pattern” of transnational repression in Southeast Asia and of signs that the trend was going global.
Thailand and Vietnam are also in the midst of negotiations on a formal extradition treaty. Khemmarin said those talks would likely continue on a future visit to Vietnam by senior Thai officials, possibly next month.
MacLeod said a treaty could make the problem of transnational repression worse by making it easier and faster for the two countries to exchange dissidents, leaving other governments, rights groups or the U.N. less time and chance to intervene.
Thailand’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, which is leading the treaty talks, did not reply to VOA’s questions about a possible deal.
The Vietnamese Embassy did not reply to VOA either.
As for Bdap’s case, Thai government spokesperson Chai Watcharong told VOA that Thailand would “take into consideration all relevant factors and concerns including the safety of the alleged offender. The court shall decide whether the alleged offences requested for extradition are considered extraditable.”
“It is better at this stage not to prejudge the court’s decision,” he added.
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Niger planned on China-backed oil pipeline — then troubles began
ABUJA, Nigeria — A China-backed pipeline that would make Niger an oil-exporting country is being threatened by an internal security crisis and a diplomatic dispute with neighboring Benin, both a result of last year’s coup that toppled the West African nation’s democratic government.
The 1,930-kilometer pipeline runs from Niger’s Chinese-built Agadem oil field to the port of Cotonou in Benin. It was designed to help the oil-rich but landlocked Niger achieve an almost fivefold increase in oil production through a $400 million deal signed in April with China’s state-run national petroleum company.
But it has been stalled by several challenges, including the diplomatic disagreement with Benin that led to the pipeline’s closure last week. There also has been an attack this week by the local Patriotic Liberation Front rebel group, which claimed to have disabled a part of the pipeline and is threatening more attacks if the $400 million deal with China isn’t canceled.
The group, led by Salah Mahmoud, a former rebel leader, took up arms after Niger’s junta came to power, posing further security threats to the country, which is already struggling with a deadly security crisis.
Analysts say the crises could further hurt Niger, one of the world’s poorest countries which funds most of its budget with now-withheld external support in the aftermath of the coup.
Niger currently has a local refining capacity of only 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) for local demands while the pipeline is to export up to 90,000 barrels daily — a feat officials and analysts have said would help the country shore up its revenue and emerge from the coup sanctions that had isolated it from regional neighbors and hurt its economy and people.
“It is a completely messy situation and the only way for a resolution is if both administrations directly engage and resolve issues,” said Ryan Cummings, director of Africa-focused security consulting company Signal Risk.
One major concern is how the stalled pipeline operation might impact Niger’s overall economic growth. The World Bank had projected that the West African nation’s economy would rebound and grow the fastest in Africa this year at a rate of 6.9%, with oil exports as a key boost.
The diplomatic tensions with Benin date back to July when Niger’s president, Mohamed Bazoum, was deposed in a coup, resulting in West African neighbors closing their borders with Niger, and in the formation of the so-called local liberation group now threatening more attacks on the oil project.
Benin, alongside other neighbors, has reopened its border with Niger, but Nigerien officials have refused to open theirs, accusing Benin of hosting French troops that pose a threat to the country after Niger severed military ties with France. That has led Benin’s president, Patrice Talon, to make the oil exportation through its port conditional on the reopening of the border.
Both countries are losing out economically, with Benin also being deprived of millions of dollars in transit fees. Observers say the impasse is worsening regional tensions since the coup, which came after a string of other military takeovers. It has pitched Niger against the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, which usually mediates on such issues.
With Niger tilting towards Russia in its diplomatic shift and Benin aligned with France and the West African bloc, China has tried to step in and resolve the impasse and benefit from its investment in the project.
But even Beijing’s efforts, which resulted in the first lifting of oil from the Agadem field in May, collapsed as the diplomatic spat escalated further.
Benin this week convicted and imprisoned three of five Nigerien oil workers it recently arrested at the Beninise port after they crossed from the border and were accused of “use of falsified computer data.” Their arrests prompted Niger to shut the pipeline last week, with a senior government official alleging that their oil is being “stolen by other people.”
A big concern for Niger’s military government at this stage is “whether they have the requisite fiscal capacity to keep paying for public services” following the coup, which has made it unable to meet some of its financial obligations such as debt repayment and infrastructural funding, Cummings said.
The junta in Niger “definitely have to be more cautious in handling the financial position of the country” amid the ongoing crises, he said.
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Philippines says it won’t back down, but won’t start war, after clash with China
MANILA, Philippines — The president of the Philippines said Sunday his country would not yield to “any foreign power” after Chinese forces injured Filipino navy personnel and damaged at least two military boats with machetes, axes and hammers in a clash in the disputed South China Sea but added the Philippines would never instigate a war.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. flew with his top generals and defense chief to the western island province of Palawan, which faces the South China Sea, to meet and award medals to navy personnel who came under assault by the Chinese coast guard Monday as they attempted to deliver food and other supplies to an outpost on the hotly contested Second Thomas Shoal.
Videos and pictures of the chaotic faceoff made public by the military showed Chinese coast guard personnel hitting a Philippine navy boat with a wooden bar and seizing a bag while blaring sirens and using blinding strobe lights. The Chinese government said that its coast guard had to take action after Filipino forces defied warnings not to stray into what China calls its own offshore territory, a claim long rejected by rival claimant governments and international arbitrators.
The violent confrontation sparked condemnation and alarm from the U.S., the European Union, Japan, Australia and other Western and Asian nations, while China and the Philippines blamed each other for instigating it. Marcos’s key advisers said Friday that his administration has no plan to invoke the country’s mutual defense treaty with the United States.
“We are not in the business to instigate wars,” Marcos told Filipino forces. “In defending the nation, we stay true to our Filipino nature that we would like to settle all these issues peacefully.”
In Monday’s faceoff at the shoal, Marcos said “we made a conscious and deliberate choice to remain in the path of peace.” The Filipino navy special operations group personnel who came under attack used only their bare hands to push back the Chinese, some of whom pointed knives at them, said Philippine military chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr.
“We stand firm. Our calm and peaceful disposition should not be mistaken for acquiescence,” Marcos said. “History itself can tell that we have never, never in the history of the Philippines yielded to any foreign power.”
Chinese officials in Manila and Beijing did not immediately comment on Marcos’ remarks.
Marcos praised about 80 officers and personnel involved in Monday’s supply mission, including one who lost his right thumb during the high seas confrontation, saying they “exercised the greatest restraint amidst intense provocation.” He issued an appeal: “Continue to fulfill your duty of defending the nation with integrity and respect as you have done so far.”
The territorial disputes, which involve China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan, have long been seen as a flashpoint that could pit the U.S. against China if high seas confrontations escalate into armed conflict. Washington has repeatedly warned that it is obligated to defend the Philippines, its oldest treaty ally in Asia, if Filipino forces are attacked, including in the South China Sea.
Indonesian forces have also opened fire on Chinese fishing boats in past confrontations in waters off the Natuna islands on the fringes of the South China Sea.
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Taiwan intensifies war games in response to rising ‘threat’ from China
taipei, taiwan — Taiwan’s annual war games this year will be as close as possible to actual combat, no longer just putting on a show to score points but aiming to simulate real fighting given a rapidly rising “enemy threat” from China, a senior official said.
China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its territory, has been staging regular exercises around the island for four years to pressure Taipei to accept Beijing’s claim of sovereignty, despite Taiwan’s strong objections.
Taiwan starts its five-day Han Kuang exercises on July 22.
A senior Taiwan defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity to be able to speak more freely, said there was an urgent need to rethink how the drills were conducted.
“In recent years, the enemy threat has changed rapidly,” the official said. “Our defense combat plan must also be continuously revised on a rolling basis, and the urgency of comprehensive combat training is becoming more and more important.”
Elements that were mostly for show, like rehearsal drills, have been canceled, while this year there will be nighttime exercises and, unusually, the capital Taipei will be included too, the official said.
“It’s not about scoring points,” the official said. “We want the soldiers to wonder whether this is for real.”
Things may go wrong — such as vehicle breakdowns — and that is fine, the official added. “These are problems that may be faced in actual combat.”
The exercises will be a continuous experience, the official said. “War does not distinguish between night and day.”
China’s defense ministry did not answer calls seeking comment about the exercises outside of office hours at the weekend. It has previously said it is futile for Taiwan to think it can use arms to prevent “reunification.”
Announcing the drills in April, Taiwan’s defense ministry said the war games would practice “kill” zones at sea to break a blockade and simulate a scenario where China suddenly turns one of its regular drills around the island into an attack.
“Only with real-time, on-the-ground verification can we truly understand the capabilities and limitations of our troops,” the official said.
China held two days of its own war games around the island shortly after President Lai Ching-te took office last month, saying it was “punishment” for his inauguration speech, which Beijing denounced as being full of separatist content.
But China has also been using gray zone warfare against Taiwan, wielding irregular tactics to exhaust a foe by keeping them continually on alert without resorting to open combat. This includes sending balloons over the island and almost daily air force missions into the skies near Taiwan.
China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control. Lai, who says only the Taiwanese people can decide their future, has repeatedly offered talks but been rebuffed.
The official declined to comment on which parts of the war games Lai would attend, as is customary for the president as commander-in-chief, or whether there would be U.S. observers.
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Taiwan detects 41 Chinese aircraft around island
taipei, taiwan — Taiwan’s defense ministry said Saturday it had detected 41 Chinese military aircraft around the island in a 24-hour window, a day after Beijing said “diehard” advocates of Taiwan’s independence could face the death penalty.
China claims self-ruled democratic Taiwan as part of its territory and has said it would never renounce the use of force to bring it under Beijing’s control.
It has stepped up pressure on Taipei in recent years and held war games around the island following last month’s inauguration of new Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te.
On Saturday, Taipei’s defense ministry said it had detected 41 Chinese military aircraft and seven naval vessels operating around Taiwan during the 24-hour period leading up to 6 a.m. (2200 GMT).
“Thirty-two of the aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait,” the ministry said in a statement, referring to a line bisecting the 180-kilometer (110-mile) waterway that separates Taiwan from China.
The ministry added that it had “monitored the situation and responded accordingly.”
The latest incursion came after China published judicial guidelines Friday that included the death penalty for “particularly serious” cases of “diehard” supporters of Taiwanese independence, state media reported.
On May 25, Taiwan detected 62 Chinese military aircraft around the island in a 24-hour window, the highest single-day total this year, as China staged military drills following the inauguration of Lai, who Beijing regards as a “dangerous separatist.”
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India, Bangladesh boost defense ties to counterweigh China
NEW DELHI — India and Bangladesh on Saturday moved to bolster their defense relationship and signed agreements for expanding cooperation in maritime security, ocean economy, and space and telecommunication sectors, as New Delhi presents itself as a regional power and a counterweight to China.
The agreements were signed during Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to India, the first foreign leader to visit New Delhi since Narendra Modi became the country’s prime minister for a third term two weeks ago.
Modi welcomed Bangladesh’s decision to join his Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative to expand and facilitate regional cooperation of India’s maritime neighbors. He said the deals with Dhaka were part of his country’s pursuit of a neighborhood-first approach.
Bangladesh also enjoys good ties with China, its major trade partner mostly for raw materials. But maintaining a close relationship with Beijing is challenging for Bangladesh, which also balances diplomatic and trade relationships with India and the United States, China’s main rivals.
Bangladesh’s garment industry, which brings in more than 80% of foreign currency from exports, is heavily dependent on China for raw materials.
Hasina told reporters in New Delhi that the two countries decided to boost the sharing of river waters and cooperation in the power and energy sectors.
She also met Indian industry leaders and invited them to invest in Bangladesh, which plans to develop bigger ports, waterways rail, and road connectivity. India loaned Bangladesh $8 billion in the last eight years, to help expand that infrastructure.
Since Hasina’s Awami League party came to power in 2009, she has acted to address New Delhi’s concern about Indian militant groups taking shelter in Bangladesh.
However, an agreement on sharing the waters of the River Teesta remains elusive. The question of illegal immigration from Bangladesh to India also has dogged bilateral ties for years.
India is Bangladesh’s largest export destination in Asia. Trade between the two countries touched $15.9 billion in the financial year 2022-23.
New Delhi mainly exports cotton, motor vehicles, sugar, iron, steel, aluminum, electrical and electronic equipment to Bangladesh. It imports cereal, pulp paper and board, cement and raw hides from Bangladesh.
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Rescuers find family of 6 dead in landslide in eastern China
BEIJING — A family of six was found dead by rescuers in Fujian province, state media reported Saturday, adding to the extreme weather deaths after downpours caused landslides in the area, even as authorities extended a warning of more severe weather ahead.
The six people, who had previously been reported missing, were found dead in a temple near their home by rescuers after days of searching in Fujian’s Shanghang county, according to the state-backed Hongxing news. They had gone to the temple seeking shelter, as it was on higher ground, but the building was toppled by a landslide, killing the family.
Authorities on Friday said 47 people were dead in neighboring Guangdong province, which has seen historic flooding caused by the rains. The weather damaged more than a hundred bridges and flooded farmland and destroyed roads connecting rural townships.
The heaviest rains fell from Sunday into Tuesday, toppling trees and collapsing homes, and authorities estimated billions of dollars in damage.
China’s National Meteorological Center issued a warning for more extreme weather across a swath of provinces in the south on Saturday, extending a warning from Friday, and for a few areas in the north.
Henan and Anhui provinces in central China, as well as Jiangsu province on the coast and the southern province of Guizhou, all are expecting hail and strong thunderstorms, according to the forecast.
In Heilongjiang province in the northeast, railways canceled multiple trains running over the weekend owing to the heavy rain.
Last week, Fujian and Guangxi provinces in southern China experienced landslides and flooding amid heavy rain. One student died in Guangxi after falling into a river swollen from the downpour.
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Xi signals further military purges to eradicate corruption
Washington — Speaking at China’s first military political work conference in a decade this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated the need for the military to eliminate corruption and strengthen its loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party. He also warned of “deep-seated issues” in the military’s politics, ideology, work style and discipline.
“The gun barrels should always be in the hands of those who are loyal and reliable to the party and there must be no place for corrupt elements to hide in the military,” Xi said in his remarks, according to China’s state broadcaster CCTV.
In a lengthy overview, Xi urged the military to enhance the thoroughness of its ideological transformation by following the Communist Party’s theories, improving the leadership of party organizations, and eradicating conditions that may allow corruption to thrive.
Chieh Chung, a military researcher at the National Policy Foundation in Taiwan, said the remarks show that “Xi wants to emphasize the importance for the military to be loyal to the party and his leadership while signaling his concerns about how corruption affects the military” and its capabilities.
Xi “hopes the warnings can help accelerate the development of advanced technologies and equipment,” Chieh told VOA by phone.
Since last July, China has ousted more than a dozen top military commanders, including former defense minister Li Shangfu, and leaders of the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force.
While the Chinese government hasn’t publicly linked their removals to corruption, some foreign media outlets and experts see their removal as part of the extended anti-corruption campaign Xi initiated since he came to power in 2012.
Reuters reported last September that Li was facing an investigation related to the procurement of military equipment.
The removal of top military leaders not only highlights the prevalence of corruption; it also raises other questions.
“Since corruption has hampered Russia’s ability to supply its military in the Ukraine war, it raises the question of whether the Chinese military’s capabilities have been compromised by corruption or not,” Lin Ying-yu, a military expert at Tamkang University in Taiwan, told VOA by phone.
There is also a concern about the impact Xi’s persistent attempts to eradicate corruption will have on the military internally.
“When a former defense minister can be abruptly removed from his position without any clear explanation, it will create a deep sense of fear within the military because no one knows when they might be the next one to be purged,” said Su Tzu-yun, a military expert at the Taipei-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
Su said this is part of the Communist Party’s strategy of “ruling with terror,” which allows Xi to concentrate decision-making power on the top leadership within the party.
“While tackling corruption in the military is important to Xi, the anti-corruption campaign has become a political tool for him to consolidate his control over the military,” Su told VOA by phone.
In January, the state-run People’s Liberation Army Daily published an opinion piece that emphasized the importance of implementing Xi’s instructions for the military and extending the party’s governance to the grassroots level.
“By strengthening the supervision of military personnel, it builds a firm first line of defense for soldiers to comply with the rules and refuse to be corrupted,” said the opinion piece run by the PLA Daily.
While Xi looks to consolidate control and build loyalty, both Chieh and Su see other potential side-effects such as the promotion of unqualified leaders and the impact that could have on the military’s capabilities and readiness.
“When Beijing puts so much emphasis on loyalty to the party, it could reduce the military’s combat capabilities and make the military huge but weak,” Su said.
Xi’s expressed desire to continue cracking down on corruption also means the Chinese military may need to go through a period of adjustment, Chieh said.
“Normally, the military’s combat capabilities will decrease following several rounds of purges, so I expect the Chinese military to go through a tough period of adjustment and reorganization over the next few years,” he told VOA.
And while top officials in the U.S. have repeatedly highlighted 2027 as the year that the Chinese military aims to possess the capabilities to invade Taiwan, Chieh thinks the purges and Xi’s remarks at the political work conference suggest the PLA may be hard pressed to achieve that goal.
“Since the Chinese military’s command system and the rocket force’s capabilities may not have reached the goal set by the top leadership due to rampant corruption, I think this makes it even less likely for the Chinese military to have the capabilities required to invade Taiwan by 2027,” he said.
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Russia-North Korea defense pact moves military cooperation out of shadows
washington — A new defense pact signed between Russia and North Korea this week publicly laid out Moscow’s willingness to engage in full-fledged military cooperation with Pyongyang, in contrast to their denials prior to the summit, analysts said.
Before Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Wednesday, it was already widely believed that Moscow was transferring military technology to Pyongyang for weapons upgrades.
In 2023, North Korea launched the solid-fuel Hwasong-18 missile for the first time. After analyzing the shape and color of the smoke at the tail of the missile, experts said these technologies appeared to have come from Russia.
At the same time, U.S. and other officials have accused North Korea of providing Russia with large quantities of conventional munitions for its war in Ukraine.
In September, Kim showed an interest in various military assets during his tour of Russia’s satellite launch site, fighter jet factory, and Pacific Fleet equipped with nuclear-capable bombers and hypersonic missiles.
Both Russia and North Korea denied any arms dealings between them prior to Putin’s visit to Pyongyang.
It is still uncertain exactly what types of military technology Moscow could provide Pyongyang.
But at the summit, Moscow made explicit its willingness to prop up Pyongyang’s military in return for continued flow of munitions to use against Ukraine, according to Bruce Bechtol Jr., a former intelligence officer at the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency and now a professor at Angelo State University in Texas.
In the Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed between Putin and Kim at their summit, the two agreed to set up “mechanisms” for undertaking “measures” for “strengthening the defense capabilities.”
They also agreed to develop and cooperate in the areas of science and technology, including space.
At a joint press conference following their summit, Putin said Moscow “does not rule out developing military and technical cooperation” with Pyongyang as agreed on in the pact in response to the U.S. and other NATO countries’ allowing weapons that they supplied to Ukraine being used against targets inside Russia.
Kim and Putin also agreed in the treaty to intervene militarily if either North Korea or Russia is invaded. But Bechtol said the most significant part of the treaty “is military cooperation.”
“We’re not going to invade North Korea. We’re not going to invade Russia. It’s all about the military cooperation, the arms deals” that have “no limits” and will be made in a “barter” form rather than in a “cash and carry” arrangement, he said.
Any arms exports or imports by North Korea would violate U.N. Security Council resolutions.
Putin trade proposal
In an article by Putin published by North Korea’s state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun on Tuesday ahead of his arrival in Pyongyang, Putin said Russia and North Korea would develop a trade and payment system not controlled by the West. This would make it easier to circumvent international sanctions on both countries.
Joshua Stanton, a Washington-based attorney who helped draft the North Korea Sanctions and Policy Enforcement Act of 2016, said, “Russia and North Korea have been talking about setting up ruble-based and renminbi-based payment systems for at least a decade.”
He continued: “It never worked before. It would probably violate U.N. sanctions, and if our Treasury Department is willing to impose secondary sanctions on the banks that facilitate it, it will fail again.”
Moscow and Pyongyang are likely to exchange military hardware using railways rather than sea routes to avoid “any kind of interdiction,” said David Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy. He said the idea of interdiction could be discussed when Washington, Seoul and Tokyo meet on the sidelines of a NATO summit in July.
Putin said at a press conference in Pyongyang this week that Russian Railways will participate in the upgrade of the Khasan-Rajin railway crossing between the two countries.
‘High intensity of commitment’
Even without the treaty, military cooperation — including arms transfers from Russia to North Korea — was likely to have gone forward, according to Bechtol and other analysts.
“I frankly don’t think that the treaty makes a huge difference,” said Michael Kimmage, who from 2014 to 2016 served on the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. State Department, where he held the Russia-Ukraine portfolio.
“It’s signaling a high intensity of commitment” and “a longevity of commitment,” which “in and of itself is quite significant,” but “I don’t think the treaty itself is that dramatic of a turning point,” he said.
Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, said, “It is hard to imagine this new agreement makes it easier for Russia to transfer military technologies to North Korea, given the transfers in recent years of Iskander missile technology, liquid oxygen and petroleum fuel for satellite launchers, repair of satellite launcher problems, GPS jammers, and 24 mm MRL precision guidance.”
He continued: “I think the bottom line is not the greater feasibility of weapons technology transfers but the Russian government’s greater political willingness to make the transfers.”
Putin’s outspoken willingness to cooperate militarily with Pyongyang has prompted deep concerns in both Seoul and Washington.
A senior South Korean presidential official said on Thursday that Seoul will now consider sending arms directly to Ukraine. Seoul has withheld providing lethal weapons to Ukraine since Russia invaded the country in February 2022.
A spokesperson for the South Korean foreign ministry told VOA’s Korean Service on Thursday that Seoul is “gravely concerned” about the treaty and the declaration of military technology cooperation “that outrightly violates U.N. Security Council resolutions.”
A State Department spokesperson told VOA Korean on Wednesday that “deepening cooperation between Russia and the DPRK is a trend that should be of great concern.” The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is North Korea’s official name.
In contrast, Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, told VOA on Thursday that Moscow and Pyongyang have “a normal need for exchanges, cooperation and a closer relationship.”
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