Myanmar releases a Japanese executive after he was arrested for selling rice above set prices

Tokyo — A Japanese business executive who was detained in Myanmar for more than a month has been released after being convicted of violating rice pricing rules, officials said Tuesday.

Hiroshi Kasamatsu, a director of the Myanmar supermarket Aeon Orange, was in custody in Myanmar since his June 30 arrest for selling rice at prices above the official regulations. Japan’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Monday that the Japanese national was convicted of violating law related to daily necessities and service. He was sentenced to one year in prison and fined about $150.

Kasamatsu was freed Monday afternoon, said Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, spokesperson for the Myanmar’s ruling military council.

The Japanese Foreign Ministry said it was unclear if Kasamatsu would stay in Myanmar or return to Japan. He was released from custody and is in good health, it said, but declined to give further details.

Rice is vital in Myanmar, a country struggling to stabilize its economy as civil war disrupts efforts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The army seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, triggering nonviolent protests that have evolved into armed resistance.

Aeon Orange is a part of Japan’s retail giant Aeon group, and operates several supermarkets in Myanmar. Aeon said it had no immediate comment.

Kasamatsu was among a number of foreign executives arrested on similar allegations in Myanmar.

The state-run Myanmar Alin newspaper reported in early July that the arrests for allegedly overpricing rice — from 31% to 70% over official prices set by the Myanmar Rice Federation — involved 62 suspects, 102 warehouses, 53 supermarkets and superstores, 25 mills and seven other shops in major cities.

Japan has historically maintained friendly ties with Myanmar. Compared with many Western nations, it took a softer approach toward Myanmar’s military government over its poor human rights record and undermining of democracy. Tokyo has not imposed economic sanctions though it does not acknowledge the legitimacy of the current government and urges restoration of democracy, and limits Japanese aid to humanitarian purposes.

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South Korea deploys sniffer dog to screen for bedbugs after Paris Games 

INCHEON, South Korea — South Korea has deployed a bedbug sniffer dog at its main Incheon international airport in a bid to reduce the risk of the tiny insects entering the country when athletes, officials and fans return from the Paris Olympics. 

Leading the campaign is a beagle named Ceco, 2, who pest control company Cesco said is the first and so far only canine trained in the country to detect the odor of pheromones, the chemicals released by bedbugs. 

Ceco is capable of sweeping a standard hotel room in under two minutes, company official Kim Min-su said.

The pest control company has teamed up with South Korea’s ministries of security and transportation, as well as the Disease Control and Prevention Agency, and is working with airlines and Incheon airport to screen travelers on arrival. 

Last year, authorities in Paris raced to contain a nationwide panic over bedbugs as the city geared up for the Olympics, worried that the tiny wingless critters might ruin the event. It conducted a campaign to root out any infestation. 

“As the global community is gathering in Paris, France, on the occasion of the 2024 Summer Olympic Games, there’s a chance bedbugs will enter the country following the event,” a South Korean government press release said. 

“Therefore, we are taking a preemptive response to intercept the entry through the Incheon international airport, which is the main gateway to the country.” 

Ceco and his team were deployed on Friday as more athletes and officials started arriving from Paris, and they will continue to work through to September 8, the government said. 

South Korea sent 144 athletes to the Olympics in Paris, which ended on Sunday.

Flights arriving directly from Paris are being disinfected once a week compared with a rate of once a month normally, and the airport quarantine service is being prepared to swing into action if an outbreak is detected in an aircraft or the airport. 

South Korea also went through a period of national hysteria in 2023 after reports of suspected infestations at microapartments, motel rooms and a traditional spa called a “jjimjilbang,” and it conducted a widespread disinfection campaign.

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Kiribati’s pro-China government faces election test in Pacific

Tarawa, Kiribati — Pacific nation Kiribati will begin voting in a general election this week, a poll that will test the strengthening ties between China and the government of the climate-threatened archipelago.

The vote on Wednesday in tiny Kiribati – a country of scattered atolls and islands – has the potential to stir ripples across the South Pacific.

Kiribati has drawn closer to China under longtime President Taneti Maamau, who is looking to extend his almost 10-year stint in charge.

Beijing has been sending small teams of police to train Kiribati’s stretched forces in the lead-up to the election, a development that has raised eyebrows among Pacific watchers.

“What China is doing is normalizing its presence in the region,” said Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst Blake Johnson.

“We haven’t seen any kind of agreement that shows what they are doing there or how many there are,” he told AFP.

“So it’s all a mystery.”

In the past five years, Kiribati’s Pacific neighbors, Solomon Islands and Nauru, have also switched diplomatic recognition to China.

The low-lying nation meanwhile faces a raft of economic and environmental challenges, such as the rising sea levels that now regularly taint scarce drinking water supplies.

With waves already encroaching on Kiribati’s outer atolls, its capital Tarawa has become one of the world’s most packed places.

Coastal erosion and the search for higher ground means Tarawa today has a population density comparable to Tokyo or Hong Kong.

Residents are plagued by contagious diseases and other symptoms of overcrowding.

Judicial meddling

Under President Maamau, a former public servant, Kiribati severed diplomatic links with Taiwan in 2019 in favor of Beijing.

A memorandum of understanding followed in 2020, with Chinese President Xi Jinping praising Kiribati for being “on the right side of history.”

Maamau’s government has also been accused of meddling in the judiciary.

Australian-born high court judge David Lambourne, who is married to Kiribati’s main opposition leader, was forced to leave the country in May after running afoul of the government.

Officials accused Lambourne of misconduct, charges that his supporters maintain were trumped up as a political ploy.

Kiribati is home to around 120,000 people spread across about 20 inhabited islands and atolls.

The general election has up to two rounds of voting, and the process can stretch on for months.

Citizens separately elect a president from a pool of lawmakers put forward by parliament.

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China test-flies biggest cargo drone as low-altitude economy takes off

beijing — Engineers sent China’s biggest-yet cargo drone on a test run over the weekend while a helicopter taxi took to the skies on a soon-to-open 100-km route to Shanghai, laying new milestones for the country’s expanding low-altitude economy.

Packing a payload capacity of 2 metric tons, the twin-engine aircraft took off on Sunday on an inaugural flight, state media said, citing developer Sichuan Tengden Sci-tech Innovation Co., for a trip of about 20 minutes in southwestern Sichuan province.

China’s civilian drone makers are testing larger payloads as the government pushes to build a low-altitude economy, with the country’s aviation regulator envisioning a $279-billion industry by 2030, for a four-fold expansion from 2023.

The Tengden-built drone, with a wingspan of 16.1 meters and a height of 4.6 meters, is slightly larger than the world’s most popular light aircraft, the four-seat Cessna 172.

The trial run followed the maiden flight in June of a cargo drone developed by state-owned Aviation Industry Corp of China (AVIC), the leading aerospace enterprise.

The AVIC’s HH-100 has a payload capacity of 700 kilograms and a flight radius of 520 km. Next year, AVIC plans to test its biggest cargo drone, the TP2000, which can carry up to 2 tons of cargo and fly four times farther than the HH-100.

China has already begun commercial deliveries by drone.

In May, cargo drone firm Phoenix Wings, part of delivery giant SF Express, started delivering fresh fruit from the island province of Hainan to southern Guangdong, using Fengzhou-90 drones developed by SF, a unit of S.F. Holding 002352.SZ.

Cargo drones promise shorter delivery times and lower transport costs, Chinese industry insiders say, while widening deliveries to sites lacking conventional aviation facilities, such as rooftop spaces in heavily built-up cities.

They could also ferry people on taxi services.

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South Korea, US will start summer military drills next week

Seoul, South Korea — South Korea and the United States will begin their annual joint military exercises next week with a focus on improving their combined capabilities to deter and defend against growing North Korean nuclear threats, the allies said Monday.

The drills could trigger a belligerent response from North Korea, which portrays them as invasion rehearsals and have used the allies’ military cooperation as a pretext to advance the development of nuclear weapons and missile systems.

South Korean and U.S. military officials said this year’s Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise, scheduled for Aug. 19-29, will include computer-simulated exercises designed to enhance readiness against such threats as missiles, GPS jamming and cyberattacks, and concurrent field maneuvers and live-fire exercises.

The allies in particular aim to “further strengthen (their) capability and posture to deter and defend against weapons of mass destruction,” military officials said in a joint news conference.

Lee Sung Joon, spokesperson of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said about 19,000 South Korean troops will participate in the drills, which he described as an “essential element for maintaining a strong defense posture to protect the Republic of Korea,” using South Korea’s formal name.

Col. Ryan Donald, spokesperson of U.S Forces Korea, didn’t comment on the number of U.S. troops participating in the exercises and said he couldn’t immediately confirm whether the drills will involve U.S. strategic assets. The United States in recent months has increased its regional deployment of long-range bombers, submarines and aircraft carrier strike groups to train with South Korean and Japanese assets in a show of force against the North.

“This exercise will reflect realistic threats across all domains such as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s missile threats and we will take in lessons learned from recent armed conflicts,” Donald said, invoking the North’s formal name.

“ROK and U.S. units will execute combined field training exercises across all domains. Field maneuver and live fire exercises will strengthen the alliance’s interoperability while showcasing our combined capabilities and resolve,” he said.

In addition to its military exercises with the United States, the South Korean military will support the country’s civil defense and evacuation drills on Aug. 19-22, which will include programs based on North Korean nuclear attack scenarios, Lee said.

Animosity on the Korean Peninsula is high, as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continues to use Russia’s war on Ukraine as a window to accelerate weapons development while issuing verbal threats of nuclear conflict toward Washington and Seoul.

In response, South Korea, the United States and Japan have been expanding their combined military exercises and sharpening their nuclear deterrence strategies built around U.S. strategic assets.

During last year’s Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises, North Korea conducted ballistic missile tests that it described as simulating “scorched earth” nuclear strikes on South Korean targets.

The North in recent weeks has also flown thousands of balloons carrying trash toward the South in a bizarre psychological warfare campaign that has further deteriorated relations between the war-divided rivals.

Trash from at least one of those balloons fell on the South Korean presidential compound last month, raising worries about the vulnerability of key South Korean facilities. The balloon contained no dangerous material and no one was hurt.

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China supports Iran in defending security, says foreign minister

Beijing — China supports Iran in defending its “sovereignty, security and national dignity,” Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi told Iran’s acting foreign minister in a phone call Sunday, according to a statement by China’s foreign ministry. 

In the phone call, Wang repeated Beijing’s denunciation of the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, saying the attack violated Iran’s sovereignty and threatened regional stability. 

Iran and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas have accused Israel of carrying out the covert strike that killed Haniyeh. 

Israel has not claimed or denied responsibility for the killing, which has fueled concern that the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip was turning into a wider Middle East war. 

Iran has vowed to “harshly punish” Israel over the assassination. 

Wang told Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s acting foreign Minister, that the killing of Haniyeh had “directly undermined the Gaza cease-fire negotiation process and undermined regional peace and stability,” China’s foreign ministry said. 

“China supports Iran in defending its sovereignty, security and national dignity in accordance with the law, and in its efforts to maintain regional peace and stability, and stands ready to maintain close communication with Iran,” Wang was quoted as saying. 

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday nominated Abbas Araqchi as the country’s foreign minister. Araqchi had been Iran’s chief negotiator in nuclear talks from 2013 to 2021. 

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Australia spy chief accuses friendly nations of foreign interference

Sydney — Australia’s spy chief on Sunday accused some friendly nations of running foreign interference operations in the country, saying their identities would surprise people if revealed.

Canberra last year named Iran as having engaged in foreign interference, adding that Australian intelligence had disrupted “individuals” conducting a surveillance operation on an Iranian-Australian’s home.

But other countries are also secretly attempting to interfere in Australia’s political system and in its diaspora communities, said Mike Burgess, director-general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO).

“I can think of at least three or four that we’ve actually actively found involved in foreign interference in Australian diaspora communities,” Burgess said in an interview with public broadcaster ABC.

“Some of them would surprise you. Some of them are also our friends,” he said.

Burgess declined to identify the countries involved beyond confirming the government’s allegation of Iran’s involvement.

Foreign interference, espionage and politically motivated violence are Australia’s principal security concerns, Burgess said.

“In diaspora communities, there are multiple countries that attempt to threaten and intimidate Australians living in this country,” he said.

“When we find it, we deal with it effectively.”

In 2022, Burgess revealed ASIO had foiled a foreign interference plot by a wealthy person — named only as “the puppeteer” — with deep connections to a foreign government.

That person had funneled hundreds of thousands of dollars to an employee to try to influence an election, he said at the time, without specifying which vote was targeted.

ASIO this month raised Australia’s terrorism threat level to “probable,” saying a homegrown rise in extreme ideologies had increased the likelihood of a violent act in the next 12 months.

Burgess said Sunday the spread of misinformation on social media made it harder to tackle the threat of politically motivated violence, with minors notably “locked in their bedrooms on their devices” and increasingly exposed to violent extremism.

The spy chief said ASIO would be keeping an eye on such risks surrounding Australia’s next general election, widely expected to be held in 2025, because it would be a “focal point” for robust debate on social issues. 

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Chinese tax collectors descend on companies as budget crunches loom

BEIJING — Chinese authorities are chasing unpaid taxes from companies and individuals dating back decades, as the government moves to plug massive budget shortfalls and address a mounting debt crisis.

More than a dozen listed Chinese companies say they were slapped with millions of dollars in back taxes in a renewed effort to fix local finances that have been wrecked by a downturn in the property market that hit sales of land leases, a main source of revenues.

Policies issued after a recent planning meeting of top Communist Party officials called for expanding local tax resources and said localities should expand their “tax management authority and improve their debt management.”

Local government debt is estimated at up to $11 trillion, including what’s owed by local government financing entities that are “off balance sheet,” or not included in official estimates. More than 300 reforms the party has outlined include promises to better monitor and manage local debt, one of the biggest risks in China’s financial system.

That will be easier said than done, and experts question how thoroughly the party will follow through on its pledges to improve the tax regime and better balance control of government revenues.

“They are not grappling with existing local debt problems, nor the constraints on fiscal capacity,” said Logan Wright of the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm. “Changing central and local revenue sharing and expenditure responsibilities is notable but they have promised this before.”

The scramble to collect long overdue taxes shows the urgency of the problems.

Chinese food and beverage conglomerate VV Food & Beverage reported in June it was hit with an 85 million yuan ($12 million) bill for taxes dating back as far as 30 years ago. Zangge Mining, based in western China, said it got two bills totaling 668 million RMB ($92 million) for taxes dating to 20 years earlier.

Local governments have long been squeezed for cash since the central government controls most tax revenue, allotting a limited amount to local governments that pay about 80% of expenditures such as salaries, social services and investments in infrastructure like roads and schools.

Pressures have been building as the economy slowed and costs piled up from “zero-COVID” policies during the pandemic.

Economists have long warned the situation is unsustainable, saying China must beef up tax collection to balance budgets in the long run.

Under leader Xi Jinping, the government has cut personal income, corporate income, and value-added taxes to curry support, boost economic growth and encourage investment — often in ways that favored the rich, tax scholars say. According to most estimates, only about 5% of Chinese pay personal income taxes, far lower than in many other countries. Government statistics show it accounts for just under 9% of total tax revenues, and China has no comprehensive nationwide property tax.

Finance Minister Li Fo’an told the official Xinhua News Agency that the latest reforms will give local governments more resources and more power over tax collection, adjusting the share of taxes they keep.

“The central government doesn’t have a lot of responsibility for spending, so it doesn’t feel the pain of cutting taxes,” said Cui Wei, a professor of Chinese and international tax policy at the University of British Columbia.

The effectiveness of the reforms will depend on how they’re implemented, said Cui, who is skeptical that authorities will carry out a proposal to increase central government spending. That “will require increasing central government staffing, and that’s an ‘organizational’ matter, not a simple spending matter,” he said.

“I wouldn’t hold my breath,” Cui said.

Sudden new tax bills have hit some businesses hard, further damaging already shaky business confidence. Ningbo Bohui Chemical Technology, in Zhejiang on China’s eastern coast, suspended most of its production after the local tax bureau demanded 500 million yuan ($69 million) in back taxes on certain chemicals. It is laying off staff and cutting pay to cope.

Experts say the arbitrary way taxes are collected, with periods of leniency followed by sudden crackdowns, is counterproductive, discouraging companies from investing or hiring precisely when they need to.

“When business owners are feeling insecure, how can there be more private investment growth in China?” said Chen Zhiwu, a finance professor at the University of Hong Kong’s business school. “An economic slowdown is inevitable.”

The State Taxation Administration has denied launching a nationwide crackdown, which might imply past enforcement was lax. Tax authorities have “always been strict about preventing and investigating illegal taxation and fee collection,” the administration said in a statement last month.

As local governments struggle to make ends meet, some are setting up joint operation centers run by local tax offices and police to chase back taxes. The AP found such centers have opened in at least 23 provinces since 2019.

Both individuals and companies are being targeted. Dozens of singers, actors, and internet celebrities were fined millions of dollars for avoiding taxes in the past few years, according to a review of government notices.

Internet livestreaming celebrity Huang Wei, better known by her pseudonym, Weiya, was fined 1.3 billion yuan ($210 million) for tax evasion in 2021. She apologized and escaped prosecution by paying up, but her social media accounts were suspended, crippling her business.

The hunt for revenue isn’t limited to taxes. In the past few years, local authorities have drawn criticism for slapping large fines on drivers and street vendors, similar to how cities like Chicago or San Francisco earn millions from parking tickets. Despite pledges by top leaders to eliminate fines as a form of revenue collection, the practice continues, with city residents complaining that Shanghai police use drones and traffic cameras to catch drivers using their mobile phones at red lights.

Outside experts and Chinese government advisers agree that structural imbalances between local and central governments must be addressed. But under Xi, China’s most authoritarian leader in decades, decision-making has grown more opaque, keeping businesses and analysts guessing, while vested interests have pushed back against major changes.

“They have a hermetically sealed process that makes it difficult for people on the outside to know what is going on,” says Martin Chorzempa, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Beijing has been reluctant to rescue struggling local governments, wary it might leave them dependent on bailouts. So, the central government has stepped in only in dire cases, otherwise leaving local governments to resolve debt issues on their own.

“In Chinese, we have a saying: You help people in desperate need, but you don’t help the poor,” said Tang Yao, an economist at Peking University. “You don’t want them to rely on soft money.”

Economists say intervention may be required this time around and that the central government has leeway to take on more debt, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of only around 25%. That’s much lower than many other major economies.

Accumulated total non-financial debt, meanwhile, is estimated at nearly triple the size of the economy, according to the National Institution for Finance and Development and still growing.

“This is a huge structural problem that needs a huge structural solution that is not forthcoming,” said Logan Wright of the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm. “There’s really no way around this. And it’s getting worse, not better.”

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Chinese drones detected off Vietnam days before military drills with Philippines

Washington — Chinese drones were detected in Vietnam’s airspace twice recently, a response, experts say, to the joining of forces between Vietnam and the Philippines.

“The Chinese WZ-10 surveillance drone entered Vietnam’s airspace twice in close succession, in response to joint exercises with the Philippines,” Roni Sontani, founder of Indonesia-based Airspace Review said in a report Wednesday, the most recent drone flight.

Vu Duc Khanh, a law professor at the University of Ottawa who follows Vietnamese policies and its international relations, told VOA China always uses the tactic of “divide and rule.”

“Any cooperation is likely to affect China’s status as a regional power. Therefore, it will seek to disrupt it,” Vu said.

The drone incursions came within a week of the joint coast guard training exercises between Vietnam and the Philippines. The first occurred on August 2 and the second on Wednesday during the Philippines naval commander’s meeting with his counterpart in Hanoi.

In both cases, the drone, identified as a Wing Loong-10 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), took off from China’s Hainan Island and entered Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), flying along the coastline for approximately 800 kilometers  before turning back near Phan Rang province, the Belgium-based Army Recognition group said.

Data from Flightradar24 indicated that it was the same drone on both flights.

The Chinese Embassy in Hanoi and the Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to VOA’s inquiry for comments.

On Tuesday, when asked by Reuters about a Chinese unmanned military aircraft that was seen flying over Vietnam’s EEZ on August 2, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said she didn’t have any information and referred Reuters to the competent authorities.

On Friday, the Philippines and Vietnamese coast guards conducted their first joint drills in Manila Bay, off the west coast of Luzon, leading into the South China Sea.

Ha Hoang Hop, president of VietKnow think tank in Hanoi, told VOA that the Friday drill is the first between the two Southeast Asian nations who have competing claims over some parts of the South China Sea. Both countries have also been in disputes with Beijing in the same contested waters.

Both countries are claimants to the Spratly group of islands and became the most vocal critics of China’s increasingly hostile actions in the disputed waters, where Beijing has increasingly asserted its territorial claims.

“The drill presents their mutual support and their readiness [for] conducting talks and finding ways to further cooperate to help gain common interests in solving the South China Sea issues,” Ha told VOA by phone.

On Thursday, the Philippines completed two days of maritime exercises with the militaries of Australia, Canada, and the United States, a first involving the four countries, to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Vu says the warming relationship between the two countries is good for regional peace and security.

But he warned that Beijing could escalate tactics.

“No one is fooled by Beijing’s expansionist objectives. Today, it may be drones, but tomorrow, it may be the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) that intervenes,” Vu added.

Last month (July) Vietnam filed a claim with the United Nations for an extended continental shelf (ECS) in the South China Sea, a month after the Philippines made a similar move in June.

China rejected the moves by both Hanoi and Manila, saying that such an act violated China’s sovereignty and maritime interests and would not help resolve disputes.

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Philippines condemns China for ‘dangerous’ acts in South China Sea

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines and China traded accusations Saturday following an encounter between their aircraft over a contested area of the South China Sea.

The Philippine military strongly condemned “dangerous and provocative actions” by China’s air force, while the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, said it acted in a professional and legal manner.

It is the first time the Philippines has complained of dangerous actions by Chinese aircraft, as opposed to navy or coast guard vessels, since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office in 2022.

Two Chinese air force aircraft executed a dangerous maneuver and dropped flares in the path of a Philippine air force aircraft conducting a routine patrol over the Scarborough Shoal Thursday morning, the military said in a statement.

It “endangered the lives of our personnel undertaking maritime security operations recently within Philippine maritime zones,” said Philippines armed forces chief Romeo Brawner, adding that the Chinese aircraft interfered with lawful flight operations and violated international law on aviation safety.

The Philippine aircraft, “despite repeated warnings from China, insisted on illegally intruding into the airspace of Huangyan Island,” disrupting training activities, the Southern Theater Command of the Chinese PLA said Saturday.

China’s naval and air forces carried out identification, tracking, warning and expulsion in accordance with the law, it said.

“The on-site operation was professional, abided by norms, legitimate and legal,” the PLA said, urging the Philippines to stop what it called infringement and provocation.

Filipino fishermen frequent the Scarborough Shoal, one of two flashpoints in a longstanding maritime rivalry with China. Beijing Wednesday organized a combat patrol near the shoal, which Manila calls Bajo de Masinloc and China seized in 2012 and refers to as Huangyan island.

Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion in annual shipborne commerce, including parts also claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

China rejects a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that Beijing’s expansive claims had no basis under international law.

The Philippines in May accused Chinese fishermen of destroying the environment at Scarborough by cyanide fishing, harvesting giant clams and other protected creatures, and scarring coral reefs, which China denied.

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North Korea flies more trash balloons toward South, Seoul says

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea’s military says North Korea is again flying balloons likely carrying trash toward the South, adding to a bizarre psychological warfare campaign amid growing tensions between the war-divided rivals.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said Saturday that the winds could carry the balloons to regions north of the South Korean capital, Seoul. Seoul City Hall and the Gyeonggi provincial government issued text alerts urging citizens to beware of objects dropping from the sky and report to the military or police if they spot any balloons.

There were no immediate reports of injuries or property damage.

North Korea in recent weeks has flown more than 2,000 balloons carrying waste paper, cloth scraps and cigarette butts toward the South in what it has described as a retaliation toward South Korean civilian activists flying anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets across the border.

Pyongyang has long condemned such activities as it is extremely sensitive to any outside criticism of leader Kim Jong Un’s authoritarian rule.

North Korea last flew balloons toward the South on July 24, when trash carried by at least one of them fell on the South Korean presidential compound, raising worries about the vulnerability of key South Korean facilities. The balloon contained no dangerous material, and no one was hurt, South Korea’s presidential security service said.

South Korea, in reaction to the North’s balloon campaign, activated its front-line loudspeakers to blast broadcasts of propaganda messages and K-pop songs. Experts say North Korea hates such broadcasts because it fears it could demoralize front-line troops and residents.

The Koreas’ tit-for-tat Cold War-style campaigns are inflaming tensions, with the rivals threatening stronger steps and warning of grave consequences.

Their relations have worsened in recent years as Kim continues to accelerate the North’s nuclear weapons and missile program and issue verbal threats of nuclear conflict toward Washington and Seoul. In response, South Korea, the United States and Japan have been expanding their combined military exercises and sharpening their nuclear deterrence strategies built around U.S. strategic assets.

Experts say animosity could further rise later this month when South Korea and the United States kick off their annual joint military drills that are being strengthened to deal with the North’s nuclear threats.

The resumption of the balloon campaign comes as North Korea struggles to recover from devastating floods that submerged thousands of homes and huge swaths of farmland in areas near its border with China.

North Korean state media said Saturday that Kim ordered officials to bring some 15,400 people displaced by the floods to the capital, Pyongyang, to provide them with better care, and that it would take two or three months to rebuild homes in flood-hit areas.

Kim has so far turned down aid offers by traditional allies Russia and China and international aid groups, insisting that North Korea can handle the recovery on its own. He accused “enemy” South Korea of a “vicious smear campaign” to tarnish the image of his government, claiming that the South’s media have been exaggerating the damage and casualties caused by the floods.

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China’s drivers fret as robotaxis pick up pace – and passengers

WUHAN, China — Liu Yi is among China’s 7 million ride-hailing drivers. A 36-year-old Wuhan resident, he started driving part-time this year when construction work slowed in the face of a nationwide glut of unsold apartments.

Now he predicts another crisis as he stands next to his car watching neighbors order driverless taxis.

“Everyone will go hungry,” he said of Wuhan drivers competing against robotaxis from Apollo Go, a subsidiary of technology giant Baidu 9888.HK.

Baidu and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology declined comment.

Ride-hailing and taxi drivers are among the first workers globally to face the threat of job loss from artificial intelligence as thousands of robotaxis hit Chinese streets, economists and industry experts said.

Self-driving technology remains experimental but China has moved aggressively to green-light trials compared with the U.S which is quick to launch investigations and suspend approvals after accidents.

At least 19 Chinese cities are running robotaxi and robobus tests, disclosure showed. Seven have approved tests without human-driver monitors by at least five industry leaders: Apollo Go, Pony.ai, WeRide, AutoX and SAIC Motor 600104.SS.

Apollo Go has said it plans to deploy 1,000 in Wuhan by year-end and operate in 100 cities by 2030.

Pony.ai, backed by Japan’s Toyota Motor 7203.T, operates 300 robotaxis and plans 1,000 more by 2026. Its vice president has said robotaxis could take five years to become sustainably profitable, at which point they will expand “exponentially.”

WeRide is known for autonomous taxis, vans, buses and street sweepers. AutoX, backed by e-commerce leader Alibaba Group 9988.HK, operates in cities including Beijing and Shanghai. SAIC has been operating robotaxis since the end of 2021.

“We’ve seen an acceleration in China. There’s certainly now a rapid pace of permits being issued,” said Boston Consulting Group managing director Augustin Wegscheider. “The U.S. has been a lot more gradual.”

Alphabet’s GOOGL.O Waymo is the only U.S. firm operating uncrewed robotaxis that collect fares. It has over 1,000 cars in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix but could grow to “thousands,” said a person with knowledge of its operations.

Cruise, backed by General Motors GM.N, restarted testing in April after one of its vehicles hit a pedestrian last year.

Cruise said it operates in three cities with safety its core mission. Waymo did not respond to a request for comment.

“There’s a clear contrast between U.S. and China” with robotaxi developers facing far more scrutiny and higher hurdles in the U.S., said former Waymo CEO John Krafcik.

Robotaxis spark safety concerns in China, too, but fleets proliferate as authorities approve testing to support economic goals. Last year, President Xi Jinping called for “new productive forces,” setting off regional competition.

Beijing announced testing in limited areas in June and Guangzhou said this month it would open roads citywide to self-driving trials.

Some Chinese firms have sought to test autonomous cars in the U.S. but the White House is set to ban vehicles with China-developed systems, said people briefed on the matter.

Boston Consulting’s Wegscheider compared China’s push to develop autonomous vehicles to its support of electric vehicles.

“Once they commit,” he said, “they move pretty fast.”

‘Stupid radishes’

China has 7 million registered ride-hailing drivers versus 4.4 million two years ago, official data showed. With ride-hailing providing last-resort jobs during economic slowdown, the side effects of robotaxis could prompt the government to tap the brakes, economists said.

In July, discussion of job loss from robotaxis soared to the top of social media searches with hashtags including, “Are driverless cars stealing taxi drivers’ livelihoods?”

In Wuhan, Liu and other ride-hailing drivers call Apollo Go vehicles “stupid radishes” – a pun on the brand’s name in local dialect – saying they cause traffic jams.

Liu worries, too, about the impending introduction of Tesla’s TSLA.O “Full Self-Driving” system – which still requires human drivers – and the automaker’s robotaxi ambitions.

“I’m afraid that after the radishes come,” he said, “Tesla will come.”

Wuhan driver Wang Guoqiang, 63, sees a threat to workers who can least afford disruption.

“Ride-hailing is work for the lowest class,” he said, as he watched an Apollo Go vehicle park in front of his taxi. “If you kill off this industry, what is left for them to do?”

Baidu declined to comment on the drivers’ concerns and referred Reuters to comments in May by Chen Zhuo, Apollo Go’s general manager. Chen said the firm would become “the world’s first commercially profitable” autonomous-driving platform.

Apollo Go loses almost $11,000 a car annually in Wuhan, Haitong International Securities estimated. A lower-cost model could enable per-vehicle annual profit of nearly $16,000, the securities firm said. By contrast, a ride-hailing car earns about $15,000 total for the driver and platform.

‘Already at the forefront’

Automating jobs could benefit China in the long run given a shrinking population, economists said.

“In the short run, there must be a balance in speed between the creation of new jobs and the destruction of old jobs,” said Tang Yao, associate professor of applied economics at Peking University. “We do not necessarily need to push at the fastest speed, as we are already at the forefront.”

Eastern Pioneer Driving School 603377.SS has more than halved its instructor number since 2019 to about 900. Instead, it has teachers at a Beijing control center remotely monitoring students in 610 cars equipped with computer instruction tools.

Computers score students on every wheel turn and brake tap, and virtual reality simulators coach them on navigating winding roads. Massive screens provide real-time analysis of driver tasks, such as one student’s 82% parallel-parking pass rate.

Zhang Yang, the school’s intelligent-training director, said the machines have done well.

“The efficiency, pass rate and safety awareness have greatly improved.”

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North Korean leader says thousands of flood victims will be brought to capital for care

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea will not seek outside help to recover from floods that devastated areas near the country’s border with China, leader Kim Jong Un said as he ordered officials to bring thousands of displaced residents to the capital to provide them better care.

Kim said it would take about two to three months to rebuild homes and stabilize the areas affected by floods. Until then, his government plans to accommodate some 15,400 people — a group that includes mothers, children, older adults and disabled soldiers — at facilities in Pyongyang, North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said Saturday.

KCNA said Kim made the comments during a two-day trip to northwestern town of Uiju through Friday to meet flood victims and discuss recovery efforts. The agency gave Kim its typical effusive praise, saying the visit showed his “sacred leadership” and “warm love and ennobling spirit of making devoted service for the people.”

State media reports said heavy rains in late July left 4,100 houses, nearly 3,000 hectares of agricultural fields, and numerous other public buildings, structures, roads and railways flooded in the northwestern city of Sinuiju and the neighboring town of Uiju.

The North has not provided information on deaths, but Kim was quoted blaming public officials who had neglected disaster prevention for causing “the casualty that cannot be allowed.”

Traditional allies Russia and China, as well as international aid groups, have offered to provide North Korea with relief supplies, but the North hasn’t publicly expressed a desire to receive them.

“Expressing thanks to various foreign countries and international organizations for their offer of humanitarian support, (Kim) said what we regard as the best in all realms and processes of state affairs is the firm trust in the people and the way of tackling problems thoroughly based on self-reliance,” KCNA said.

Kim made similar comments earlier in the week after Russian President Vladimir Putin offered help, expressing his gratitude but saying that the North has established its own rehabilitation plans and will only ask for Moscow’s assistance if later needed.

While rival South Korea has also offered to send aid supplies, it’s highly unlikely that the North would accept its offer. Tensions between the Koreas are at their highest in years over the North’s growing nuclear ambitions and the South’s expansion of combined military exercises with the United States and Japan.

The North had also rejected South Korea’s offers for help while battling a COVID-19 outbreak in 2022.

During his recent visit to Uiju, Kim repeated an accusation that South Korea exaggerated the North’s flood damages and casualties, which he decried as a “smear campaign” and a “grave provocation” against his government. Some South Korean media reports claim that the North’s flood damages are likely worse than what state media have acknowledged, and that the number of deaths could exceed 1,000.

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Philippines, Vietnam conduct 1st joint drills amid South China Sea tensions

Washington — The Philippines and Vietnamese coast guards conducted their first joint drills Friday in firefighting, rescue, and medical response in Manila Bay, off the west coast of Luzon, the Philippines’ main island, leading into the South China Sea.

This exercise represents the first such joint activity between the coast guards of the two countries amid ongoing territorial disputes with each other and, more significantly with China, which claims almost the entire South China Sea as its own.

The drills featured a simulated search and rescue operation and the use of water cannons to repel a mock threat.

According to Jay L. Batongbacal, a professor at the University of the Philippines College of Law, the strengthened relations and security cooperation between Vietnam and the Philippines serve as a significant counter to China’s increasingly expansionist and assertive actions in the South China Sea.

“Since both [countries] carry these activities out fully in accordance with international law, it should be seen as a stabilizing factor and deterrent to Chinese aggression, and at the same time stand for asserting and maintaining international law,” Batongbacal told VOA.

Strategic shifts

Although the Philippines and Vietnam face overlapping sovereignty disputes with China in the South China Sea, Batongbacal views this first-ever Philippines-Vietnam exercise as a key demonstration of how claimant countries should interact.

“It is a demonstration of what is possible between claimants who are sincere in their declarations to cooperate and improve relations, temporarily setting aside the disputes and maintaining the status quo,” Batongbacal said. “So even if they do not have active and direct cooperation, their activities contribute to maintaining the regional balance of power because of their common goals and converging interests.”

Vietnam in late June said it was open to discussing overlapping claims with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Since Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office in 2022, the Philippine government has adopted a more assertive stance on the South China Sea, differing from his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte. This shift has heightened maritime tensions with China as Beijing has sought to assert its claims to the region.

In mid-June 2024, the Philippines accused Chinese coast guards of boarding a Philippine navy vessel near Second Thomas Shoal, confiscating equipment, and causing a severe injury to a Philippine sailor.

Just ahead of the joint exercise with Vietnam, the Philippines conducted multilateral maritime exercises with the U.S., Australia, and Canada on August 7-8.

The exercises aimed at “safeguarding the right to freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea,” according to a joint statement.

Additionally, the Philippines and Japan held their first joint exercises in the South China Sea on August 2, despite Beijing’s repeated warnings to “extraterritorial states” against interfering in the region.

Chinese response

China’s Foreign Ministry has not yet commented on the Philippines-Vietnam joint drills but Tuesday spokesperson Mao Ning repeated Beijing’s claim, “It is the Philippines, not China, that is creating problems in the South China Sea.”

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced on August 7 that its Southern Theater Command had conducted air and sea combat patrols near Scarborough Shoal— an area with a long-standing sovereignty dispute between China and the Philippines.

According to Ding Duo, deputy director of the Institute of Marine Law and Policy at the China Institute of South China Sea Studies, Beijing is likely to respond with measured concern to the Vietnam-Philippines joint exercise despite the ongoing disputes over territorial sovereignty and maritime boundaries.

“The venue for the Vietnam-Philippines joint exercise is Manila Bay, and the scale of the exercise is relatively small,” Ding said. “Its defensive nature suggests that China will probably view it as a routine instance of bilateral security and military cooperation among regional nations.”

Ding said China aims to prevent Vietnam-Philippines cooperation from growing into a broader alliance that could challenge its interests.

“I believe China may use diplomatic or party-to-party channels to address military security concerns and mitigate the risk of potential miscalculations,” Ding said.

Beijing has been stepping up its friendly military engagements and exercises with Hanoi, as the two sides have sought to reduce historic tensions in the South China Sea.

China’s state-run Xinhua news agency reported on August 7, the Vietnam people’s navy’s guided-missile frigate 015 Tran Hung Dao arrived at Zhanjiang, a naval port in southeast Guangdong province for a visit.

The PLA stated that the visit would include “ship tours, deck receptions, cultural exchanges, joint exercises, and other activities” aimed at “improving mutual understanding and trust between the Chinese and Vietnamese navies and further strengthening the friendship between the two naval forces.”

Four ships from the Chinese and Vietnamese navies in June held a two-day joint patrol exercise in the Gulf of Tonkin between Vietnam and China, which Chinese state media said was their 36th such drill.

China and the Philippines have tried to improve their relations since the June clash.

Chinese and Filipino officials in a July 2 meeting in Manila agreed to reduce tensions and even consider cooperation between their coast guards.

Regional impact

Nonetheless, analysts say this first joint exercise between Hanoi and Manila is likely to carry significance beyond its immediate scope.

Nguyen Khac Giang is a visiting scholar at the Vietnam Studies Program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

“I think that is important because although this is only a search and rescue exercise and not a military drill, I think it will signal further collaboration between the two countries in the future, including military exercises and other activities in the region. So I think it’s very important for both countries going forward,” Nguyen told VOA.

Nguyen highlighted that Vietnam and Indonesia successfully concluded negotiations on their exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea at the end of 2022. He suggested that if Vietnam and the Philippines can use this joint exercise to address their overlapping border issues, it could represent the potential for Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) claimants in the South China Sea to enhance cooperation and collectively address challenges posed by China.

“Because China always wants to divide and conquer, they want to negotiate with each country individually because it will give them better leverage,” Nguyen said.

However, Nguyen noted that if ASEAN countries like Vietnam and the Philippines can work together, it would strengthen their ability to counter Chinese influence not only in terms of military presence in the South China Sea but also on diplomatic and economic fronts.

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US election looms over US-South Korea-Japan security cooperation

washington — Experts in Washington are split on their perspectives of the durability of the recently elevated U.S.-South Korea-Japan security cooperation in the event of former President Donald Trump winning the November U.S. presidential election, given his critical stance toward U.S. alliances in the past.

Last month, the U.S., South Korea and Japan signed a memorandum of cooperation on the Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework (TSCF), which is aimed at institutionalizing the countries’ security partnership against threats from China and North Korea.

While not legally binding, the memorandum is expected to facilitate trilateral security cooperation regardless of any leadership changes in their respective countries.

The agreement calls for regular high-level talks, joint exercises and other exchanges among the three nations.

Some in Washington, however, question whether the United States, South Korea and Japan would successfully institutionalize the enhanced security cooperation in a second Trump presidency.

“Certainly, the greatest and near-term concern is if President Trump is reelected, whether he would undo some of the progress of recent years,” Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation, told VOA Korean by telephone Wednesday.

Klingner added that the three governments hoped that signing the memorandum would regularize and operationalize the ongoing security improvements among the three nations.

The Biden administration says stronger trilateral cooperation is an integral part of its Indo-Pacific strategy.

The administration also has been touting the August 2023 summit at Camp David with the U.S., South Korea and Japan as a historic meeting, saying the three leaders “inaugurated a new era of trilateral partnership” there.

In a Washington Post opinion piece published this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that the U.S. security partnership in the Indo-Pacific region is working more effectively than before, citing the cooperation among the United States, South Korea and Japan as an example.

“President [Joe] Biden brought together Japan and South Korea — two countries with a difficult history — to join the United States in the Camp David Trilateral Summit, spurring unprecedented defense and economic cooperation among our countries,” they wrote.

Uncertainty looms

It is uncertain how the U.S. trilateral partnership with South Korea and Japan would shape up if Trump returns to power, as the former president has not publicly articulated a stance on the trilateral cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.

Trump has put strong emphasis on U.S. allies paying their “fair share” of defense costs.

During his presidency, Trump demanded that South Korea and Japan pay more for the cost of the U.S. military presence in their countries. He warned the U.S. could withdraw its troops unless the demands were met.

Michael O’Hanlon, director of foreign policy research at the Brookings Institution in Washington, told VOA Korean via email Wednesday that it would be hard to predict whether the TSCF would survive a possible Trump second term.

“Most things are personalized with him, or they relate to his instincts and impressions based on previous business dealings,” he said.

“Both the leaders [of South Korea and Japan] he dealt with when president are now gone. So, it’s a wild card or blank slate.”

However, some disagree.

Richard Armitage, who served as deputy secretary of state during the George W. Bush administration, told VOA Korean by telephone Thursday that Trump would likely allow the institutionalization of the TSCF, considering the strong support from both sides of the aisle.

“I find the majority [of] members on Capitol Hill are very positive to it,” Armitage said.

“I do notice that some of the people who are rumored to be coming in, should Mr. Trump win, are actually quite international in their outlook,” he added, declining to say who those people are.

Alliance commitment

Frederick Fleitz, who served as chief of staff of the National Security Council in the Trump White House, told VOA Korean by phone Wednesday that he would expect the agreement on the security framework among the U.S. and the two U.S. allies in Asia to be upheld in a second Trump administration.

“It’s going to remain,” Fleitz said. “He [Trump] is a strong supporter of alliances, particularly our alliance in the Asian Pacific.”

Fleitz added that the stronger security ties among the three countries is “a significant achievement that’s going to continue.”

Evans Revere, who served as acting assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific affairs, told VOA Korean via email that China’s rise to become the greatest threat in the Indo-Pacific theater is a fact not to be ignored by any of the three countries.

“There is every reason to believe the three countries can effectively institutionalize trilateral security cooperation, even if there is a change of administration in one or more of the three capitals,” Revere said. “There is a growing perception in all three countries of the threats and challenges they share in common. China’s attempts at political, military and economic intimidation are becoming more frequent.”

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris, who is running to become the successor to Biden, is widely predicted to continue on the path Biden forged.

“Harris does not have a clearly established record on U.S.-South Korea-Japan security cooperation, but I expect that she will follow the policies of the Biden administration on this issue,” Gary Samore, former White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction during the Obama administration, told VOA Korean via email.

Blinken, Austin and Sullivan highlighted in the Post opinion piece that the transformed approach toward the Indo-Pacific region is “one of the most important and least-told stories of the foreign policy strategy advanced by President Biden and Vice President Harris.”

Joeun Lee contributed to this report.

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Australia strikes ‘landmark’ nuclear defense agreement with AUKUS allies  

Sydney — Australia Friday called a new nuclear technology agreement with the United States and Britain a “very significant step down the … path” toward a nuclear-powered fleet of submarines. Australia struck the deal Monday, aimed at allowing transfer of nuclear equipment and technology for the country’s proposed fleet. It is the latest advance in the 2021 AUKUS security pact linking the three countries.

The agreement, described by U.S officials as another significant “AUKUS milestone,” is a further step to giving Australia the technology and hardware to build, run and maintain nuclear-powered submarines.

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, who is also the deputy prime minister, signed the latest part of the trilateral accord in the United States Monday. He called the agreement “a key foundational document.”

Under plans unveiled in San Diego, California, last year, Australia intends to spend up to $242 billion over the next 30 years to first buy second-hand Virginia-class submarines from the United States and then develop a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines using technology from Rolls Royce.

Marles told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. Friday the AUKUS pact is taking an important step forward.

“This agreement is the legal underpinning for that technology to be provided to Australia, for ultimately the nuclear equipment to be provided to Australia. So, that is both the Virginia Class submarines from the United States [and] the nuclear reactors from Rolls Royce that will form part of the submarines that we build in Australia,” he said.

The AUKUS accord is widely seen as a counter to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Beijing has said the security pact undermines peace and stability.

China accused Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States of fueling military confrontation when the AUKUS accord was signed in 2021.

The alliance has been criticized by former Australian Prime Ministers Malcolm Turnbull and Paul Keating, who have said the deal would erode the country’s sovereignty.

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Myanmar’s junta loses first regional command base since 2021 coup

Bangkok — Armed groups in Myanmar fighting the country’s military regime are making major, even “historic,” gains in the northeast since the breakdown of a cease-fire in June, experts tell VOA, setting up a possible push toward Mandalay, the country’s second-largest city.

The centerpiece of the groups’ recent string of wins was the taking last weekend of Lashio, the headquarters of the Myanmar military’s northeast regional command, in Shan State.

Lashio anchors one of 14 regional commands across the country and is the first to fall to resistance groups since the military seized power from a democratically elected government in February 2021, setting off a bloody civil war.

With a population of some 150,000, it is also the largest city the military has lost and straddles the main highway between Mandalay and Myanmar’s border with China, a key trade route.

“It’s just a massive, historic achievement for the resistance, something that hasn’t been seen before … so, it will have a lot of ramifications,” said Matthew Arnold, an independent Myanmar analyst tracking the fighting.

Of the 14 regional command bases, he said, Lashio was among the most heavily fortified and defended.

“This was a massive, massive garrison, with layers of defense,” Arnold said. “If they can’t keep Lashio, it starts to open up lots of other questions about what they can keep.”

Cease-fire collapsed

The rebel advance is part of Operation 10-27, for October 27, the date last year that a trio of ethnic minority armed groups based in Shan — the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Arakan Army — launched a coordinated offensive against the junta.

After sweeping across much of northern Shan in a few months, the so-called Three Brotherhood Alliance agreed to a cease-fire brokered by China in January but has been back on the offensive since the truce collapsed in June.

Jason Tower, Myanmar program director for the United States Institute of Peace, a U.S. government-funded think tank, estimates the alliance has seized at least another 12,000 square kilometers (about 4,630 square miles) since then, an area greater than all of Jamaica.

He says its latest push has seen more cooperation between the ethnic armed groups, which have been around for decades, and the People’s Defense Forces, local community militias that have sprung up across Myanmar to resist the junta.

Tower said the first phase of 10-27 saw some collaboration, but less coordination between the two.

“But now, for phase two, you see where the TNLA is very publicly working with the Mandalay PDF, and operations are going on down in Mandalay Region,” he said.

“That alliance is quite significant and also sends a sign … that you could well see a much more robust type of relationship begin to emerge between the Brotherhood and the PDFs.”

That cooperation and coordination was on show in Lashio, where hundreds of PDF and other fighters helped the MNDAA seize control, said Ye Myo Hein, a senior adviser at the USIP and a global fellow at the Wilson Center, another Washington think tank.

By taking Lashio, he said, the groups have proven their ability to wage and win in conventional urban warfare in what has been a largely rural armed resistance movement using mostly guerrilla tactics.

“Resistance forces have demonstrated their ability to defeat junta troops even in conventional warfare, advancing toward key cities like Mandalay. If the resistance succeeds in gaining ground in major cities such as Mandalay in the upcoming wave of operations, the regime will find it exceedingly difficult to maintain control in Naypyidaw and Yangon in 2025,” said Ye Myo Hein.

Naypyidaw, Myanmar’s capital, and Yangon, its largest city, remain firmly in the junta’s hands.

The TNLA and Mandalay PDF have each claimed victories in recent weeks in towns inching ever closer to Mandalay, though. That includes Mogok, the source of the world’s most-prized rubies, landing another financial blow against a junta already hit hard by international sanctions.

A spokesperson for the regime could not be reached for comment.

In a rare move, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing on Tuesday admitted the military was under pressure in Shan in a televised address on state media. He accused “foreign technology experts” of aiding its enemies.

The general’s remarks were widely seen as a stab at China. Myanmar’s giant neighbor has been one of the military’s main weapons suppliers. But it is also widely believed to be aiding some ethnic armed groups, which have in turn been helping arm and train some of the PDFs.

‘What does the junta lose next?’

Despite a broadly unpopular conscription drive started earlier this year to shore up the military’s dwindling ranks, the analysts say the momentum in the war is squarely with the resistance.

“The question is, what does the junta lose next, and overall, how does it stem the momentum of the resistance? And I think for everybody across the resistance, they can sense that the junta is … gravely weakening,” said Arnold.

“It just doesn’t have experienced, combat-proven units that it can maneuver to launch counteroffensives, so what it tries to do is pump in fresh conscripts,” he said. “It’s just not an adequate response.”

Since the coup, resistance groups have been pushing the junta farther and farther away from the country’s borders and inching closer to its strongholds in the center.

The fighting has come at a grave cost. More than 5,000 civilians are estimated to have been killed, on top of tens of thousands of fighters on both sides. The United Nations says more than 2.8 million have been displaced.

Seeing the junta’s latest run of losses in Shan, the analysts say, resistance groups elsewhere across Myanmar are likely to try to push the military a bit harder, and the Brotherhood’s successful siege of Lashio could give them some valuable lessons on how to take other well-fortified positions.

“I think across the country you’re going to see more waves … by both ethnic armed organizations and other PDFs to try their own hand against the Myanmar military given that they have seen just how readily people are surrendering and how easy it’s been for the Brotherhood to finish off this operation,” said Tower.

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Nagasaki marks 79th A-bomb anniversary

TOKYO — Nagasaki marked the 79th anniversary of its atomic bombing at the end of World War II at a ceremony Friday eclipsed by the absence of the American ambassador and other Western envoys in response to the Japanese city’s refusal to invite Israel.

Mayor Shiro Suzuki, in a speech at Nagasaki Peace Park, called for nuclear weapon states and those under their nuclear umbrellas, including Japan, to abolish the weapons.

“You must face up to the reality that the very existence of nuclear weapons poses an increasing threat to humankind, and you must make a brave shift toward the abolition of nuclear weapons,” Suzuki said.

He warned that the world faces “a critical situation” because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and accelerating conflicts in the Middle East.

The atomic bomb dropped by the United States on Nagasaki on Aug. 9, 1945, killed 70,000 people, three days after the bombing of Hiroshima killed 140,000. Japan surrendered on Aug. 15, 1945, ending World War II and its nearly half-century of aggression across Asia.

Speaking at Friday’s ceremony, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reiterated his pledge to pursue a nuclear-free world. His critics, many of them atomic bomb survivors, or hibakusha, say it’s a hollow promise as Japan relies on the U.S. nuclear umbrella while building up its own military.

At 11:02 a.m., the moment the plutonium bomb exploded above the southern Japanese city, participants observed a moment of silence as a peace bell tolled.

More than 2,000 people, including representatives from 100 countries, attended Friday’s ceremony. But ambassadors from the U.S. and five other Group of Seven nations — Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the U.K. — and the European Union were absent. Their governments sent lower-ranking envoys in response to Suzuki’s decision not to invite Israel.

They said that treating Israel like Russia and Belarus, which also were not invited, was misleading.

U.S. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel instead attended a ceremony at a Buddhist temple in Tokyo honoring the Nagasaki atomic bombing victims, joined by his Israeli and British counterparts, Gilad Cohen and Julia Longbottom.

“We are obviously in Tokyo but that doesn’t mean we don’t have a responsibility to think and to reflect and to remember” what happened 79 years ago in Nagasaki and Hiroshima, Emanuel said.

Suzuki denied that his decision to exclude Israel was political, and said he feared that possible “unforeseeable situations” such as violent protests over the war in Gaza might disrupt the ceremony. Suzuki, whose parents are hibakusha, said the Aug. 9 anniversary is the most important day for Nagasaki and must be commemorated in a peaceful and solemn environment.

Emanuel disagreed.

“I think it was a political decision, not one based on security, given the prime minister’s attendance,” which required high security, Emanuel told reporters.

He said excluding Israel drew “a moral equivalency between Russia and Israel, one country that invaded versus one country that was a victim of invasion,” and that “my attendance would respect that political judgment, and I couldn’t do that.”

Cohen, in a statement on the social media platform X, expressed his “gratitude to all the countries that have chosen to stand with Israel and oppose its exclusion from the Nagasaki Peace Ceremony. Thank you for standing with us on the right side of history.”

The anniversary comes shortly after the United States and Japan reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to provide “extended deterrence” under its nuclear umbrella for Japan amid growing tension in the region. That is a shift from Japan’s previous reluctance to openly discuss its protection under the nuclear umbrella as the world’s only country to have suffered atomic attacks.

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Ex-Philippines election official facing US bribery charges

miami — A U.S. federal grand jury on Thursday indicted the former chairman of the Philippines election commission for allegedly taking bribes from a company that provided voting machines for the country’s 2016 elections.

Andres “Andy” Bautista, 60, faces one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering and three counts of international laundering of monetary instruments, the Justice Department said in a statement.

Three executives of the voting machine company were also indicted for their roles in an “alleged bribery and money laundering scheme to retain and obtain business related to the 2016 Philippine elections,” it said.

The Justice Department did not identify the company, but one of the three indicted executives is Roger Alejandro Pinate Martinez, 49, a Venezuelan citizen and Florida resident who is a co-founder of Smartmatic.

The indictment alleges that between 2015 and 2018, Pinate, Jorge Miguel Vasquez, 62, and others “caused at least $1 million in bribes to be paid” to Bautista.

Pinate and Vasquez are each charged with one count of conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

Like Bautista, Pinate, Vasquez, and Elie Moreno, 44, a dual citizen of Venezuela and Israel, are also charged with one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering and three counts of international laundering of monetary instruments.

The Philippines Commission on Elections banned Smartmatic last year from bidding on election contracts, but the country’s highest court overturned the ban in April.

Bautista, who headed the election commission from 2015 to 2017, awarded Smartmatic a $199 million contract to supply the Philippines with 94,000 voting machines for the 2016 presidential election won by former leader Rodrigo Duterte.

He has denied any wrongdoing, writing on X that he “did not ask for nor receive any bribe money from Smartmatic or any other entity.”

The Justice Department and U.S. Attorney’s Office did not respond to a query from AFP as to whether Bautista is in U.S. custody.

In a statement, Smartmatic confirmed two of its employees had been indicted, saying that “regardless of the veracity of the allegations and while our accused employees remain innocent until proven guilty, we have placed both employees on leaves of absence, effective immediately.”

“No voter fraud has been alleged and Smartmatic is not indicted,” the company said, adding: “Voters worldwide must be assured that the elections they participate in are conducted with the utmost integrity and transparency. These are the values that Smartmatic lives by.”

Smartmatic has filed lawsuits against Fox News and allies of former president Donald Trump, including ex-New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, over false claims that its machines were used to manipulate the results of the 2020 U.S. election. 

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Philippine court orders corporate regulator to restore media firm’s license

MANILA, Philippines — A Philippine court has ordered the country’s corporate regulator to restore the license of Rappler, a media firm led by Nobel laureate Maria Ressa who reported on former President Rodrigo Duterte’s campaign against illegal drugs.

The Court of Appeals, in a decision dated July 23 that was seen by Reuters on Friday, had voided orders and decisions of the Philippine Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to shut down the online news site.

The Securities and Exchange Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The SEC in 2018 rescinded the operating license of Rappler for violating foreign equity restrictions on domestic media when it sold depositary rights to a foreign entity. The decision was upheld in 2022.

The appellate court said the SEC “acted with grave abuse of discretion” in revoking Rappler’s certificate of incorporation.

Rappler had previously argued the Omidyar Network, the philanthropic arm of EBay founder Pierre Omidyar, was a silent investor. Omidyar cut ties by donating the depository receipts to Rappler’s staff.

Rappler was founded by Ressa, won the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize along with Russian investigative journalist Dmitry Muratov in a decision widely seen as an endorsement of free speech rights that had come under fire worldwide.

Ressa is currently on bail after being convicted in 2020 in a cyber libel case. She has appealed the decision to the country’s top court. 

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Germany’s membership in UN Command signals commitment to Indo-Pacific    

washington — Germany’s entry into the U.S.-led U.N. Command, which expanded the multinational body tasked with defending South Korea against North Korea, reflects growing fears in Europe and the U.S. that multiple wars that could break out simultaneously across the globe, said analysts.

North Korea this week denounced Germany’s membership in the U.N. Command (UNC), calling the expansion an attempt by the U.S. to create an Asian version of NATO, according to state-run KCNA.

The move will “inevitably aggravate the military and political situation on the Korean Peninsula and the rest of the region,” KCNA said Tuesday.

Pushing back against Pyongyang’s criticism, the German Federal Foreign Office told VOA Korean in a statement on Tuesday that by joining UNC, it is “sending a signal for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and strengthen[ing] our commitment in the Indo-Pacific.”

The statement continued, “Just as others are there for us, we are there for others when they need us.”

Germany joined UNC on August 2, becoming the 18th member of the body charged with maintaining the armistice on the Korean Peninsula during peacetime. In the event of war, the UNC would coordinate the movement of troops and weapons from its members to the Combined Forces Command of the U.S. and South Korea. 

Enhanced deterrence

Markus Garlauskas, who served as the U.S. national intelligence officer for North Korea from 2014 to 2020, said the UNC’s main role is to defend South Korea but that “expanding the number of countries contributing to UNC helps enhance deterrence … of the escalation of aggression in the entire region.”

This is particularly important because a conflict on the Korean Peninsula could escalate into a conflict with China, said Garlauskas, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

The U.S. maintains several military bases and approximately 28,500 troops in South Korea.

But with wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza and the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, analysts said the addition of new members to the UNC makes it easier for the United States to respond to crises elsewhere without having to send additional forces that may be needed to defend South Korea if the North attacks.

“The U.S. military is not large enough to fight multiple contingencies around the world” by itself, said David Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy.

The U.S. Commission on the National Defense Strategy released a report in July saying the U.S. must prepare to deal with simultaneous conflicts coordinated by China and Russia and involving countries such as North Korea and Iran, amounting to a “global war.”

Bruce Bennett, senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, said, “The more forces that are available to potentially assist South Korea, the better it is for the U.S. if conflict occurs in both Taiwan and in Korea.”

By joining the UNC, “Germany is hoping South Korea will also become more supportive of the defense of Ukraine against Russian aggression” by sending ammunition and other weapons, Bennett said.

South Korea has withheld sending lethal weapons directly to Ukraine while providing nonlethal weapons.

Germany’s membership in UNC follows a NATO summit last month in Washington where the alliance agreed to cooperate closely on security with the Indo-Pacific countries of South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

Germany’s participation in UNC demonstrates “a tangible step” toward that defense cooperation, Garlauskas said. He noted that Pyongyang’s and Beijing’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine “directly threatens Germany security.”

Germany, along with other NATO member states, has been arming Ukraine so it can defend against Russia, which has been threatening NATO with nuclear strikes. The U.S. and its NATO allies have condemned China for supporting Russia’s defense industry and North Korea for sending munitions to aid its war in Ukraine.

James Przystup, senior fellow and Japan chair specializing in alliance management in the Indo-Pacific at the Hudson Institute, said Germany, the U.K., France, the Netherlands and the EU “have all released Indo-Pacific strategy that recognizes that stability in the region is critical to Europe’s own prosperity.”

Those countries have also expressed their commitment to supporting a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific, he said. “But this is far from the emergence of an Indo-Pacific NATO.”

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Japan leads Central Asia summit amid rising tensions with Russia, China 

washington — Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s landmark three-day visit to Central Asia, beginning Friday, is poised to challenge the existing geopolitical balance in the region.

The Central Asia + Japan group will hold its inaugural summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, where Kishida, supported by a delegation of 50 Japanese business leaders, will unveil a strategic $2 billion economic support package.

During the August 9-12 trip, Kishida is also scheduled to visit Uzbekistan and Mongolia.

Japan’s foreign ministry said on X that the meeting marks the 20th anniversary of the Central Asia + Japan Dialogue, though it is the first such meeting at this level. “The friendships built over these last two decades will form the foundation for further cooperation & partnerships for decades to come,” the posting said.

Experts say that as Central Asia’s natural resources and its strategic roles in trade and security attract global interest, Japan is seeking to counter Russia’s and China’s dominance in the region with alternative models for trade and governance.

“The visit shows Japan’s desire somewhat to counter, or perhaps more realistically, to mitigate the historically closer economic engagement with Central Asian countries that Russia and China have had,” said Koichi Nakano, professor of political science at Sophia University in Japan.

“But it would seem unrealistic to think that Japan can quickly ‘flip’ them to its side by ditching their close ties with Russia and China in economic and security terms,” he told VOA.

In the five post-Soviet Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — China is the leading exporter, boosted by its Belt and Road Initiative and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Meanwhile, Russia exerts substantial influence through energy exports, labor migration and regional security, particularly via the Collective Security Treaty Organization and its military presence in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

China hosted a summit with Central Asian leaders in May 2023, followed by a high-level meeting organized by the European Union in June. The United States and Germany then held their own summit in September.

Japan has maintained diplomatic relations with Central Asian countries since their independence in the early 1990s. In August 2004, Japan established the regional framework called the Central Asia + Japan Dialogue. Subsequently, other countries, including the U.S., India and South Korea, have initiated similar diplomatic frameworks with the region.

Cautious alliances

According to Nakano, Central Asian countries are cautious about being dominated by Russia and China.

“But now that the tension between Japan, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other hand, is rising, there is a stronger reason for Japan to boost its ties with the Central Asian countries,” Nakano said.

Those tensions have escalated because of Japan’s support for Western sanctions against Russia and disputes over the Kuril Islands. Japan’s concerns about China’s military activities have also strained relations.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Wednesday issued a statement criticizing the Tokyo-led summit as “Japan’s attempts to penetrate Central Asia.”

“We have no doubt that our partners from Central Asia, with their wisdom, will be able to distinguish approaches in favor of mutually beneficial cooperation from plans to reduce their countries to the position of a neocolonial appendage of the Western camp,” she said in the statement.

“We hope that the destructiveness of such a prospect and the serious costs of losing full-blooded ties with Russia are quite obvious to them.” 

Domestic motives

Hiromoto Kaji, professor at Aichi University in Japan, said that while the new summit framework with Central Asia might seem like a foreign policy move, it is actually driven by Japan’s internal political factors.

“The new cooperation framework that Prime Minister Kishida has now proposed does not fundamentally change the policy objectives. Rather, Prime Minister Kishida may be seeking to establish ‘a diplomatic legacy’ in preparation for the upcoming LDP [Liberal Democratic Party] presidential election,” Kaji told VOA.

Kishida’s LDP will hold elections in September to choose its next party president.

Tsuyoshi Nojima, a professor at Daito Bunka University in Japan, said Japan enjoys a higher level of goodwill in Central Asia and the Middle East than the United States.

“In Asia, the U.S., Japan, China and Russia are all competing for influence — one in Southeast Asia and one in Central Asia. Japan is effectively helping the U.S. manage relationships with Central Asian countries,” Nojima told VOA.

Democratic engagement

Anders Corr, publisher of the Journal of Political Risk, says Japan’s summit in Central Asia is a positive development that could introduce greater democratic influence in the region.

“The summit is focused on bringing Japanese diplomacy and businesses to the region, which will assist in democratic influence efforts through economic incentives,” Corr told VOA.

Corr also said democracies will need to solidify any gains in the region through a combination of business incentives and sanctions aimed at addressing authoritarianism and human rights abuses.

“Such incentives and disincentives can only be reliably based upon the economic and military strength and unity of the democracies more broadly as they face off against increasingly belligerent autocracies, including Iran, that surround Central Asia,” Corr said. 

After more than 30 years of independence, citizens in Central Asian countries at varying levels continue to face restrictions on press freedom, civil liberties and political rights as they endure authoritarian practices.

Chung-Hsi Tu of VOA Mandarin contributed to this report. 

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