JAKARTA, INDONESIA — Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is in Beijing Friday for his first official visit to China, where he is expected to meet with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. Experts say he hopes to maintain the personal rapport with the Chinese leaders established by his predecessor, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.

“Presumably, he will be leaning more toward Beijing for economic purposes since Prabowo has ambitious plans for achieving 8% economic growth,” Aristyo Darmawan, a lecturer in international law at Universitas Indonesia, told VOA.

However, Darmawan voiced concern about reports that Prabowo has proposed to collaborate with China on oil exploration in the North Natuna Sea, a portion of the South China Sea that has long been controlled by Indonesia and lies within its Exclusive Economic Zone but is claimed by China.

“I think this is unnecessary and actually dangerous for Indonesia,” he said. “I think Prabowo is keen to have a closer relationship with Beijing, and, therefore, it might indicate how he might respond to any incursion in the North Natuna Sea.”

In his inaugural speech to Parliament on October 20, Prabowo vowed to bolster the defense of Indonesian territory. The next day, Indonesia’s Maritime Security Agency drove a Chinese coast guard ship away from a contested area in the North Natuna Sea.

The same ship returned on October 24 and 25, disrupting a survey being conducted by Indonesia’s state-owned oil company, Pertamina. The three intrusions, coming within a week during Prabowo’s first days in office, prompting questions about Beijing’s motives.

Past territorial disputes

Confrontations have dated back for years in the region, which is believed to hold huge, unexploited oil and gas deposits. These prompted then-President Widodo to hold a Cabinet meeting aboard a warship off the Natuna islands in 2016 to assert Indonesia’s sovereignty.

In December 2020, Widodo again visited the Natuna islands amid a stand-off between Indonesian warships and Chinese coast guard vessels escorting 60 fishing boats. Afterward, Indonesia deployed fighter jets and warships to patrol the waters, and it sent a diplomatic note to the Chinese ambassador to Indonesia.

One year later, China demanded that Indonesia stop drilling for oil and natural gas in the sea. A letter from Chinese diplomats to Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry claimed that a temporary offshore rig operated by Indonesia was in Chinese territory.

In 2023, a Chinese coast guard ship escorted a Chinese research ship without permission into North Natuna waters to carry out exploration activities.

Better monitoring

Ario Seno, a researcher at the Indonesian Maritime Security agency, said Indonesia does not have enough manpower and patrol boats to monitor the vast area effectively. This makes it hard to catch trespassing fishing boats or coast guard ships in a timely manner.

To address the problem, the agency is developing a monitoring system using buoys equipped with radar, long-distance surveillance cameras and sonar, which will be connected to its satellite system and the agency’s base.

“Our patrol boats will be able to focus on enforcing the law, so we don’t have to often patrol around in circles and then find nothing. With the existence of these floating surveillance tools, violations can be immediately detected, and the available patrol boats can immediately take action,” Ario said.

Indonesian authorities say the proposed system could be ready by 2026 and will provide major savings in surveillance costs.

China’s lukewarm response

During an October 24 press conference, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian defended China’s behavior in North Natuna, insisting the waters belonged to his country even though Beijing’s expansive claims to the South China Sea have been rejected by an international tribunal.

“China’s coast guard vessel carries out routine patrols in waters under the jurisdiction of China in accordance with international law and China’s domestic laws,” Lin said. “China stands ready to enhance communication and consultation with Indonesia through diplomatic channels and properly handle maritime issues between the two countries.”

A week later, Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Rolliansyah “Roy” Soemirat, said Indonesia’s position on the contested waters “remains unchanged.”

“We continue to have dialogue behind the scenes and other diplomatic efforts to address this issue proportionally with other countries,” he said, adding that Indonesia was in the process of seeking confirmation and exchanging “the most factual” information with the related parties.

Aristyo, the Universitas Indonesia lecturer, said Indonesia should be careful in its talks with China to ensure that Indonesia is treating the issue seriously.

He said that in the past, Prabowo has sent mixed signals regarding the territorial dispute. It’s too early to judge how he will respond as president, but there are expectations he will defend Indonesia’s sovereign waters more forcefully.
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