JAKARTA, indonesia — The first time Prabowo Subianto lost a presidential bid, he claimed there had been “massive” fraud. The second time, the former special forces commander initially said he did not accept the election results but later joined the winner’s Cabinet.
Prabowo dominated this year’s presidential election, his third attempt in a decade, and is set on Sunday to become the leader of Indonesia on the back of support from outgoing President Joko Widodo and popular policies like free meals for schoolchildren.
The 73-year-old, who celebrated his birthday Thursday, has undergone a remarkable transformation: projecting a persona of a charismatic statesman during the campaign — associated with viral dance moves, represented by a cute and cuddly cartoon avatar and often posing with his cat, Bobby.
His new image contrasts with his past reputation as a fiery, pious nationalist who as a military commander faced unproven allegations of rights abuses, and who for a time went into self-exile in Jordan after authoritarian leader Suharto, his former father-in-law, was ousted in a popular uprising in 1998.
Since winning the February election, Prabowo has signaled he will seek a greater role for Indonesia on the international stage, pledged to lift economic growth and urged unity in the country.
“I will prove that I will fight for all Indonesians, including those who did not vote for me,” Prabowo said soon after being declared the winner.
Prabowo’s personality as a self-assured leader is set to reflect in the way he runs the country, likely taking a top-down approach and surrounding himself with a close group of advisers, analysts and sources say.
But his past has also raised concerns about the trajectory of democracy, human rights advocates say, in a country that only 26 years ago broke free of authoritarian rule.
Officials with Prabowo’s Gerindra party did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
But Muhammad Sarmuji, a top official with the Golkar party that is in Prabowo’s coalition, said the incoming leader’s education in Western countries meant he would not always be a top-down leader and he had also absorbed the value of democracy.
Prabowo studied at the American School in London and attended military courses in the United States, including at Fort Benning.
“I am not worried that he will do anything that is anti-democratic. So, there’s nothing to worry about,” Sarmuji said.
Past a harbinger for future?
Prabowo comes from an elite political family. His father was one of Indonesia’s most prominent economists, serving in the Cabinets of both presidents Sukarno and Suharto.
In 1983, Prabowo married Suharto’s daughter Siti Hediati Hariyadi, but they separated soon after the president was ousted in 1998. They have one son.
Prabowo, who was a three-star lieutenant general before being dismissed from the military also in 1998, has been accused of involvement in the kidnapping of student activists and rights abuses in Papua and East Timor. This year, Jokowi, as the outgoing president is popularly known, gave him the honorary rank of four-star general.
There was previously a de facto ban on Prabowo’s entry to the United States, but the allegations against him are unproven and Prabowo has always denied any responsibility.
It’s those allegations and some recent comments that have increased fears among human rights activists, who say that Prabowo is inheriting a fragile democracy.
President B.J. Habibie, Suharto’s successor, said that in 1998 Prabowo showed up at the presidential palace after his inauguration, armed and with a squad of special forces soldiers, and tried to stage a coup. Prabowo has dismissed the accusation.
In March, Prabowo described democracy as tiring, costly and messy, and said there was room for improvement.
Usman Hamid, executive director of Amnesty International Indonesia, said that unlike Jokowi, Prabowo could be more overt in any challenges to civil society.
“Prabowo will be more explicit in expressing his views. He will do whatever he says,” Hamid said.
Approach to the presidency
Prabowo surrounds himself with close family members and former colleagues, including from his time in the military, analysts say.
His approach to leadership, sometimes freewheeling comments and who he includes in his inner circle will be closely watched.
A Western government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said there were questions about how he would work with bureaucrats compared to his closest advisers.
While Jokowi often sought advice from his close aides and gave them key positions, he left some issues like foreign policy largely in the hands of bureaucrats.
Western officials say they have felt they had a better handle on how Jokowi’s government functioned and are still working to understand how Prabowo will operate.
Foreign investors have been worried that Prabowo may ease fiscal discipline in the country to try to reach his goal of boosting Indonesia’s economic growth to 8%.
Prabowo, who was defense minister under Jokowi, raised eyebrows at the regional security forum, the Shangri-La Dialogue, in June by talking about Indonesian peacekeepers going into Gaza and last year proposing a U.N. referendum on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including a demilitarized zone.
While experts say public comments like those are unlikely to stop any time soon, they hope Prabowo’s actions may be more restrained when he is in office.
Yoes Kenawas, a research fellow from Atma Jaya University, said it was unlikely Prabowo would be an authoritarian figure, because of international and domestic resistance.
“Prabowo will be more actively voicing his thoughts to (the) public, from here we could get the sense of a strongman,” Yoes said. “But whether he will kidnap his opposition? I don’t think so, hopefully not.”
…