Seoul  — Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who has effectively announced his resignation, helped transform Japan’s foreign policy, boosting its global role and accelerating a major military expansion, despite facing domestic challenges that ultimately led to his exit.

In an unexpected announcement Wednesday, Kishida said he will not seek re-election as head of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, meaning he will step down as prime minister following an internal party leadership election next month.

During Kishida’s three-year term, global geopolitical tensions sharply escalated. Kishida responded by taking several steps to align his country closer with the West and to loosen Japan’s self-imposed post-World War II military restraints.

Most notably, Kishida increased Japan’s defense budget. Under a five-year plan unveiled in 2022, Japan is on track to become the world’s third-largest military spender, trailing the United States and China.

Under Kishida, Japan announced for the first time that it will acquire missiles that can reach other countries, breaking a decades-old taboo against weapons that could have offensive uses.

Kishida also deepened Japan’s security ties with like-minded partners, not only reinforcing its alliance with the United States but also enhancing cooperation with the Philippines, Australia, South Korea, and NATO.

Those policies largely continued the vision of the late Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, who advocated a more assertive Japanese foreign policy.

“But I think [Kishida] went beyond Abe in many ways,” said Daniel Sneider, an East Asia policy specialist at Stanford University.

Under Kishida, Japan “moved beyond the kind of narrow definitions of self-defense that were the hallmark of Japanese security policy for so many decades,” Sneider added.

Ukraine war impact

A main reason Kishida was able to enact many significant changes to Japan’s security policy was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began four months after Kishida took office.

“Kishida understood very quickly that this was a huge turning point in postwar history,” Sneider said.

Although the Ukraine war was on the other side of the world, Kishida viewed it as a violation of the fundamental principles of the post-World War II international order, “the first of which was not to use force to change boundaries,” Sneider said.

For many Japanese, the lesson of Ukraine was clear: the country needed a more proactive foreign policy – especially with Russia next door and China and North Korea increasingly intent on upsetting the U.S.-led regional order.

“Ukraine’s example was perfect to convince Japanese people that, look, talking peacefully is not enough – something else needs to be done,” said Mieko Nakabayashi, a former Japanese lawmaker and professor at Tokyo’s Waseda University.

“Mr. Kishida used that rhetoric very well – and it was not only rhetoric, but a reality in the world. Therefore, it was very convincing,” Nakabayashi said.

Kishida responded by quickly joining U.S.-led economic sanctions against Russia. Japan also sent Ukraine large amounts of humanitarian and military aid, which although non-lethal was unprecedented in Japan’s modern history.

Taiwan support

For Kishida, another foreign policy focus was Taiwan, the self-ruled island that China views as its own and has threatened to invade.

Japan has much to lose if a regional war over Taiwan erupted. Its westernmost inhabited island is just 100 kilometers from Taiwan. And Japan hosts over 50,000 U.S. troops, who analysts say would likely be drawn into any Taiwan conflict.

Although Japan has not committed to defending Taiwan, Kishida has expanded Japan’s rhetorical support for the island democracy. He has also boosted security cooperation with countries who aim to preserve the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

At international forums, Kishida repeatedly warned that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,” a statement many saw as an implicit reference to the dangers of China invading Taiwan.

Tough legacy at home

Kishida’s more assertive, values-laden foreign policy won him admirers throughout the West, but his legacy at home is more complicated. 

During his three years in office, Kishida suffered consistently low approval ratings – one poll in July suggested that only 15.5% of Japanese approved of his Cabinet.

Many Japanese voters appear unhappy with Kishida’s handling of the economy. Not only did the policies of Kishida’s government fail to fix Japan’s long-standing stagnation, he and his cabinet struggled to respond to newfound inflation, which drove up consumer prices, especially following the Ukraine war.

Kishida’s LDP also faced a series of domestic controversies, including one involving millions of dollars in undocumented political funds.

In Kobayashi’s view, Kishida exerted more effort trying to protect his political allies than uncovering who was responsible for the allegedly misappropriated funds.

“The perception [of Kishida] outside of Japan and inside of Japan are very different,” she said. “He was respected by international leaders because of his consistent role to protect democracy…however, looking at him from inside Japan, he lacked leadership.”
…