Britain, France and Germany announced Thursday they will keep their sanctions on Iran related to the Mideast country’s atomic program and development of ballistic missiles. The measures were to expire in October under a timetable spelled out in the now defunct nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers.

In a joint statement, the three European allies known as E3 and which had helped negotiate the nuclear deal, said they would retain their sanctions in a “direct response to Iran’s consistent and severe non-compliance” with the accord, also known by its official name as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA.

The measures ban Iran from developing ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons and bar anyone from buying, selling or transferring drones and missiles to and from Iran. They also include an asset freeze for several Iranian individuals and entities involved in the nuclear and ballistic missile program.

Iran has violated the sanctions by developing and testing ballistic missiles and sending drones to Russia for its war on Ukraine.

The sanctions will remain in place until Tehran “is fully compliant” with the deal, the E3 said. The sanctions, according to the accord from eight years ago, were to expire Oct. 18.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry called the European decision an “illegal, provocative action” that will hamper cooperation, in comments quoted by the country’s official news agency IRNA.

“The actions of the European parties will definitely have negative effects on the efforts to manage the tension and create a suitable environment for more cooperation between the JCPOA parties,” the ministry said.

The 2015 nuclear deal was meant to ensure that Iran could not develop atomic weapons. Under the accord, Tehran agreed to limit enrichment of uranium to levels necessary for nuclear power in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

In 2018, then-President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the United States out of the accord, saying he would negotiate a stronger deal, but that did not happen. Iran began breaking the terms a year later and is now enriching uranium to nearly weapons-grade levels, according to a report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog.

Formal talks to try to find a roadmap to restart the deal collapsed in August 2022.

The E3 have informed the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, about their decision, the statement said. Borrell, in turn, said he had forwarded the E3 letter to other signatories of the 2015 deal — China, Russia and Iran.

The development comes at a delicate moment as the United States is preparing to finalize a prisoner swap with Iran that would include the unfreezing of Iranian assets held in South Korean banks worth $6 billion.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters that Washington was in touch with the European allies over “the appropriate next steps.”

“We are working closely with our European allies, including members, of course, of the E3, to address the continued threat that Iran poses including on missiles and arms transfers with the extensive range of unilateral and multilateral tools that are at our disposal,” he said.

Iran has long denied ever seeking nuclear weapons and continues to insist that its program is entirely for peaceful purposes, though Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, has warned that Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “several” nuclear bombs if it chose to build them.

Under the terms of the nuclear deal, a U.N. arms embargo against Tehran will expire on Oct. 18, after which countries that do not adopt similar sanctions on their own as the E3 — likely Russia and perhaps also China — will no longer be bound by the U.N. restrictions on Iran.

However, Iran has lately slowed the pace at which it is enriching uranium, according to a report by the IAEA that was seen by The Associated Press earlier this month. That could be a sign Tehran is trying to ease tensions after years of strain between it and the U.S.

“The decision makes sense,” Henry Rome, an analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said of the European decision. “The real question is how Iran will react. Given the broader de-escalation efforts under way, I would expect Iran not to act rashly, but we never know.”
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China, watching this week’s historic Russia-North Korea summit from the sidelines, is likely to welcome a boost for President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine but worry that its longtime client state in Pyongyang could be slipping from its grasp, experts say.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s green bulletproof train headed to Komsomolsk-on-Amur, a city in Russia’s far Khabarovsk region, on Thursday after his rare summit with Putin a day earlier, according to Yonhap News in Seoul.

In Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Kim is expected to meet with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and visit a manufacturing facility that produces Sukhoi fighter jets. From there, he will head toward Vladivostok to inspect Russia’s Pacific fleet before returning to Pyongyang.

China and Russia, autocratic socialist states, have supported each other for decades. The two have become closer than ever as they seek to counter the United States and its allies in Europe and Asia. But experts say the shift by North Korea, their junior partner and socialist neighbor, toward Moscow may make Beijing feel as if Kim has found a new suitor.

Kim’s summit with Putin on Wednesday at the Vostochny spaceport in Russia’s far eastern Amur region reset Pyongyang’s strategic ties with Moscow based on their common military needs and goals, experts said.

Putin needs artillery shells and ammunition to sustain his war in Ukraine. Kim needs technological help to send a spy satellite into orbit after failed attempts in May and August.

Their converging needs brought them together for the first time since April 2019.

‘That’s why we came here’

Although specifics about this week’s summit were not announced in public, both Kim and Putin seem to have suggested they would meet each other’s needs in defiance of international sanctions and concerns.

“The relationship between Russia and North Korea that’s moving forward now is in violation of numerous U.N. Security Council resolutions,” said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a podcast on Wednesday. “We don’t want to see Russia be in a position where it can strengthen the capabilities it’s bringing to dealing with the aggression on Ukraine, and we also don’t want to see North Korea benefiting from whatever technologies it might get from Russia.”

Before their meeting, Putin gave Kim a tour of the spaceport and suggested he would provide satellite technology that Kim has been trying to hone. “That’s why we came here,” he said.

Prior to their closed-door, one-on-one meeting, Kim said Pyongyang would stand with Moscow in its “just fight against hegemonic forces” and pledged to provide “full and unconditional support for all measures” taken by Russia in its war in Ukraine.

Kim also said Pyongyang’s relationship with Moscow was its “top priority.”

Putin said before the one-on-one meeting that he planned to discuss with Kim issues including the economy, humanitarian aid and the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

At a reception following their talks, Putin accepted Kim’s offer to visit Pyongyang, according to North Korea’s state media KCNA.

As North Korea’s primary aid provider and top trading partner, China has for years held considerable leverage over Pyongyang. But now, experts say, Beijing might feel anxious that Pyongyang is leaning too much toward Moscow and starting to slip from its influence.

Gary Samore, former White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction during the Obama administration, said China probably feels ambivalent about the arms deals.

“On one hand, Beijing wants Putin to survive the Ukraine war, so it probably welcomes North Korean military aid to Russia,” Samore said. “On the other hand, Beijing may be nervous that Russian transfer of advanced military technology to North Korea could increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula and strengthen the U.S.-[South Korea]-Japan alliance.”

South Korea, Japan, US reflect on pledge

In August, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo agreed to bolster their defenses against North Korea at their summit at Camp David. They agreed to hold regular multidomain trilateral exercises and share live ballistic missile defense warning data.

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts on Thursday about the Putin-Kim meeting and stressed the importance of their commitment to consult against common threats — a pledge made at Camp David — and to cooperate in their efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

Experts said China is reluctant to match Russia in providing advanced weapons technologies to North Korea, at least explicitly. They said Beijing does not want to taint its international image by aiding a pariah state, risk further straining its relations with the U.S., and be on the road to become isolated like Russia.

China increasingly wants to be “a world power” and is thinking “globally, not just regionally,” said Ken Gause, director of special projects for the Strategy and Policy Analysis Program at research group CNA and an expert on North Korean leadership.

“They can’t go overboard in terms of the defense stuff in Northeast Asia because it can have negative effects on what they’re doing in the world,” including Beijing’s global Belt and Road Initiative, Gause said.

Gause said Beijing is likely to use its economic leverage over Russia to discourage Moscow from jeopardizing the security of Northeast Asia by giving Pyongyang “all kinds of sensitive technology.”

He said what North Korea gets from Russia will indicate Moscow’s stance toward Beijing. If Pyongyang gets advanced military technology such as submarine technology, it shows that “Russia is extremely desperate” and “Russia doesn’t care about what the Chinese say.”

Economic cooperation with China

Russia has become economically dependent on China since its invasion of Ukraine, which triggered multiple sanctions by the U.S. and its allies and partners.

Putin said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on Tuesday that Moscow’s economic cooperation with Beijing had “reached a very high level,” according to Russian state-run TASS news agency.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is planning to visit Moscow on Monday to hold talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Wednesday, according to Interfax news based in Moscow.

Despite differences that might exist among the three autocratic states, Zack Cooper, former deputy national security adviser at the National Security Council and current fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said it would be difficult to drive “a serious wedge” into Beijing-Moscow-Pyongyang relations as they “increasingly” move in the direction of opposing the U.S. and its key allies.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a press briefing in Beijing on Thursday that “China and Russia have been in close communication on bilateral ties and international and regional issues.”
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A press freedom group based in Austria has been combating a cyberattack since early September that the group believes is in retaliation for its recent report on similar attacks against independent media in Hungary.

The International Press Institute announced Thursday that the group has been fighting “a targeted and sustained cyberattack” since September 1. The assault on IPI began with a series of distributed denial-of-service, or DDoS, attacks that took the organization’s website offline for three days.

A DDoS attack is a form of cyberattack that temporarily slows or crashes a website by overloading its servers with millions of simultaneous access requests.

“It really has just strengthened our dedication and our commitment to our mission,” IPI advocacy director Amy Brouillette told VOA from Vienna, where IPI is based.

“It’s sharpened our resolve. We are more committed than ever to our mission, and we’re more committed than ever to supporting Hungarian independent media and independent media around the world,” Brouillette added.

IPI’s website has since been restored, but the organization continues to face milder DDoS attacks, the group said in a statement. The persistent assault marks the most severe attack on IPI’s online infrastructure since the group was founded in 1950, IPI said.

In response to the attack, IPI has reinforced its security measures and filed a report with Austrian police’s cybercrime unit.

IPI believes the cyberattacks are in retaliation for an August report the group published about cyberattacks against independent media in Hungary.

More than 40 Hungarian media websites have been hit by DDoS attacks in the last five months, the report found. Outlets that are critical of the government were hit particularly hard, according to the report.

IPI said evidence suggests the same attacker that has been targeting independent media in Hungary is also responsible for the attack on IPI.

No actor has taken responsibility for the attacks against Hungarian media, but IPI reported in August that the perpetrator appears to go by the nickname HANO, which is a Hungarian acronym for a medical condition that causes bodily swelling.

The attacker left a similar message to IPI. In the log data of the attack, the perpetrator left a message in English: “See you next time Hano hates u.”

Brouillette said IPI wasn’t taking that warning very seriously.

The first phase of the attack on IPI did not knock out the group’s website, but between September 6 and 8, the perpetrators brought it down multiple times. On September 8, the attack increased to 350,000 requests per second. DDoS attacks can be significantly larger.

“It was aggressively persistent,” Brouillette said.

The attacks came from servers around the world, including the United States, Germany, Russia, France, Indonesia and Singapore, but IPI said that doesn’t reveal much about where the attacker is located because the traffic is rerouted.

It is unclear whether the DDoS attacks against IPI and independent media in Hungary are government-backed, according to Brouillette.

Hungary’s Washington Embassy did not immediately reply to VOA’s email requesting comment.

Brouillette said the attack on IPI underscores the concerning state of press freedom in Hungary and around the world. In terms of media freedom, Hungary ranks among the worst countries in the European Union.

“It reflects a wider and alarming pattern of the abuse of digital tools by malicious actors, not only against journalists but also against the organizations that defend journalists,” Brouillette said.

Brouillette added that the assault on IPI underscores the increasing threat that DDoS attacks are posing around the world — from Kosovo and Kyrgyzstan to Nigeria and the Philippines.

“DDoS attacks in general are on the rise,” she said. “It’s a really big and very dangerous new front in the war against press freedom.”
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Italy is considering whether to leave the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s multibillion-dollar global trade and infrastructure program, by the end of the year. The dilemma comes amid geopolitical pressures from Western allies and domestic disappointment that the program has not delivered the economic benefits that the country hoped for.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni spoke to reporters after meeting the Chinese delegation at last week’s G20 summit in New Delhi.

“There are European nations which in recent years haven’t been part of the Belt and Road but have been able to forge more favorable relations [with China] than we have sometimes managed,” Meloni said. “The issue is how to guarantee a partnership that is beneficial for both sides, leaving aside the decision that we will take on the BRI.”

BRI benefits?

Italy signed on to China’s BRI in 2019, the only member of the Group of 7 most advanced economies — including Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States — to do so. But Italy has not received the expected economic benefits, Filippo Boni, a lecturer in politics and international studies at the Open University in England, told VOA.

“From the Italian side, the idea was to both try and boost its exports but also to make a political move towards Brussels, as a signal that Italy was able to sign successful deals with third countries independently from the European Union,” Boni said, adding that Meloni is seeking to make a clear break with previous [Italian] governments by forging new relationships with China and the EU.

“There is a growing realization that the memorandum of understanding that was signed with China in March 2019 did not really bring the benefits that were expected,” he said. “Trade balance is still heavily tilted in China’s favor, and Italian exports to China did not pick up, did not see the increase that those who wanted [the BRI] were envisaging and hoping for.”

Geopolitics

There are also geopolitical reasons for Italy rethinking its membership in China’s BRI, said Luigi Scazzieri, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.

“There’s come to be a certain diplomatic stigma attached to it, partly because the whole of the West is rethinking its relationship with China,” Scazzieri told VOA. “And Italy being the only G7 country having signed up to the Belt and Road makes it, on the other hand, look like it’s trying to get closer to Beijing.”

Italy’s Western allies are reducing their reliance on some Chinese imports and restricting the sale of technologies such as advanced semiconductors to Beijing.

In recent years, Italy’s government has blocked the sale of some of its biggest companies to Chinese firms, such as the tire maker Pirelli, under its so-called Golden Power rules.

“It’s really a clear signal the government in Rome is sending to its partners in the European Union, and Washington most importantly, about Italy’s position on the international chess board,” Boni said.

China’s response

Questioned about Italy’s potential departure from the BRI this week, China’s Foreign Ministry insisted the program brings benefits to its members.

“The Belt and Road Initiative has attracted more than 150 countries and a wide range of partners in various fields over the past 10 years and has brought tangible benefits to the people of all countries,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters. “It is in the interests of all participating countries to further tap the potential of cooperation.”

Italy is choosing its language carefully and said it wants to boost trade with Beijing outside the BRI, Scazzieri said.

“The fear of Beijing reacting in a negative way has been precisely why Meloni has been quite careful about how to go about extracting Italy from BRI,” he said.

Italy already has a strategic partnership with China, an agreement Beijing has signed with many countries aimed at fostering economic and cultural ties. It’s likely Rome will seek to amend that document in the hope of replacing its BRI membership with a looser relationship.

“Given the centrality that ‘strategic partnerships’ have in China’s foreign policy — as of the end of last year, there were 110 strategic partnerships that China signed with countries globally — I think it might be a good way out of the Belt and Road Initiative for both countries to say, ‘We’re still engaged in bilateral cooperation,’ ” Boni said.
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