Latest Developments

Estonian Prime Minister supports Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, EU
China says it respects the sovereignty of former Soviet states
Letter containing unknown substance was sent to the French embassy in Moscow, the TASS news agency said Monday, citing law enforcement.

Ukrainian officials said a Russian missile struck a museum in the city of Kupiasnk on Tuesday, killing at least one person and injuring 10 others.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is doing all it can to destroy Ukraine’s history, culture and its people.

“Killing Ukrainians with absolutely barbaric methods,” Zelenskyy said after the Kupiansk attack. “We have no right to forget about it for a single second. We must and will respond!”

Zelenskyy said those responsible for committing war crimes “will definitely be brought to justice and it will be merciless.”

Russian forces seized Kupiansk, an important rail hub in northeastern Ukraine, during the early part of the invasion it launched in Ukraine last year. Ukrainian forces took it back in September.

Grain deal

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has proposed a “way forward” of the Black Sea Grain Deal to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Guterres outlined his proposal in a letter to the Russian president on “the improvement, extension and expansion” of a grain deal that would allow the safe Black Sea export of Ukrainian grain, a U.N. spokesperson said on Monday after Guterres and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met in New York.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Monday that an agreement between Moscow and the United Nations on Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports is not being fulfilled and there are “lots of details” to be discussed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Secretary-General Guterres.

The Kremlin has indicated it will not allow the deal — brokered by the U.N. and Turkey last year — to continue beyond May 18 unless Russia’s terms on its own grain and fertilizer exports are met.

The European Union and Japan have pushed back against a U.S. proposal for G-7 countries to ban all exports to Russia, the Financial Times reported Monday.

Lavrov did not answer questions on his way in or out of the 90-minute meeting with Guterres. “Don’t shout at me,” he told reporters.

During the Security Council meeting Monday, Guterres said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is “causing massive suffering and devastation to Ukraine and its people” and contributing to “global economic dislocation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“Tensions between major powers are at a historic high. So are the risks of conflict, through misadventure or miscalculation,” he remarked.

Sitting next to the U.N. chief, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the council that the world is now in a more dangerous situation than even during the Cold War. “As during the Cold War, we have reached the dangerous, possibly even more dangerous, threshold,” Lavrov said during the session on “Maintenance of International Peace and Security” that he was chairing.

Russia holds the monthly rotating presidency of the 15-member body for April.

Some material in this report came from Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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In the aftermath of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine last year, global attitudes toward Russia’s leadership have shifted dramatically, with large majorities of the population in dozens of countries reporting disapproval of the Kremlin.

Data compiled from surveys of thousands of people in 137 countries and regions showed a marked decline in approval of the Kremlin, according to a report released by the Gallup organization on Tuesday. Globally, 57% of respondents reported that they disapprove of Russia’s leadership in 2022, up from just 38% the year before.

Only 21% of respondents said that they approve of Russia’s leadership, down from 33% in 2021. Both the approval and disapproval figures were the most extreme Gallup has measured since it began asking the question as part of its annual survey tracking attitudes toward global leaders in 2007.

“It’s incredible,” Zacc Ritter, a senior researcher with Gallup and the lead author of the report, told VOA. “I don’t think we’ve seen a shift like this before in Gallup’s data for any country.”

Negative shift everywhere

While peoples’ impression of Russia’s leadership varied across individual countries in the survey, the overarching result was a worsening of the public image of its leadership across the board.

The shift was most prominent in Latin America and the Caribbean, where the median approval rating fell by 21 percentage points, to 16%, while the median disapproval rating jumped by 30 points, to 61%.

Even in parts of Africa and Asia where Russian influence remains strong, the change was negative. In North Africa and the Middle East, disapproval rates rose by 12 points, to 55%. In sub-Saharan Africa, where Russia maintains active influence operations, disapproval rates still spiked from 21% to 32%, worsening even in countries whose leaders have refused to condemn the war.

Still, sub-Saharan Africa was the only region polled by Gallup in which the median approval rating of Russia’s leadership (35%) remained above the median disapproval rating.

State-level differences

The data collected by Gallup indicates significant regional differences in attitudes toward Russia’s leadership, with disapproval most concentrated in Europe, North America, Australia, South Korea and Japan. Feelings toward Russia were more ambivalent in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

Unsurprisingly, Ukraine registered the highest rate of disapproval, at 96%, followed closely by Poland, at 95%. The U.S., Canada and 10 different European countries registered disapproval ratings of 90% or above.

In Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed as a possession by China and itself under constant threat of invasion, the shift against Russia was large. In 2021, just 26% of Taiwanese surveyed expressed disapproval of Russia’s leadership. By 2022, that number had leapt to 72%.

Another outlier was Kazakhstan, the former Soviet republic on Russia’s eastern border. Normally a reliable ally of Moscow’s, Kazakhstan showed a major shift in attitude between 2021 and 2022. Approval of Russian leadership fell to 29% from 55% and disapproval jumped to 50% from just 20%.

Little surprise

Steven Pifer, a former senior U.S. State Department official who also served as ambassador to Ukraine, told VOA that it is no secret that Russia has seriously damaged its international standing, particularly in Europe.

“Certainly when you look at how Europeans now look at Russia, I think it’s a much more negative image than was the case before this war began,” said Pifer, who is now an affiliate of Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. “Russian actions are so at odds with the fundamental principles that we thought had been the basis for European security… that now, when they talk about security in Europe, it’s not about security that involves Russia. It’s about security against Russia.”

On the broader global stage, he said, it will be difficult for most world leaders to engage meaningfully with senior Russian officials and hard to trust them on the occasions when engagement is possible.

“Start at the top. Vladimir Putin has been indicted for war crime. It’s really difficult to see how any Western leader can sit down with him at this point. There’s a reputational cost to doing that,” Pifer said.

He said the willingness of senior Russian diplomats to parrot obvious lies and distortions about the war that have been put forward by the Kremlin will make re-engagement all the more difficult.

“Russian diplomats who I used to have some respect for are just out there, basically saying the most bizarre things,” Pifer said. “That will come back to bite them. These guys have lost a lot of credibility, and it’s going to be hard to see how they get it back.”

Similar findings

Although its sample size makes the Gallup survey stand out, its findings echo those of a number of other major research firms that have explored the decline in Russia’s global standing, including the Pew Research Center and Ipsos.

Last month, Brand Finance, the U.K.-based consultancy that issues an annual Global Soft Power index, reported that in the previous year, Russia was the only country to see its soft power decline over the previous year.

Soft power, which refers to a country’s ability to affect the behavior of other nations without resorting to force, derives from many things, including economic ties and cultural influences.

“While nations have turned to soft power to restore trade and tourism after a devastating health crisis, the world order has been disrupted by the hard power of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Brand Finance Chairman and CEO David Haigh said in a statement. “An event that would be hard to believe were it not for the intensity of the images we have been seeing for months and the consequences the conflict is having on politics and the economy alike.”
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The European Union’s top diplomat described as good news China’s distancing from controversial comments from one of its envoys who questioned the sovereignty of Ukraine and other former Soviet states.    

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell’s remarks come after China’s ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, sparked an uproar by suggesting countries emerging from the ashes of the Soviet Union did not have status under international law.     

“They [China] issued a tweet yesterday saying they hope that this statement or remark issued was not the official position of China,” Borrell said. “And now we have the concrete answer from China that it’s not. So, it’s good news.”     

Made during an interview with French media, Ambassador Lu’s remarks add to European unease about China’s growing economic and political clout — and its stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.    

Beijing says it wants to be a mediator ending the war. But some EU member states are skeptical — especially those once part of the Soviet Union.     

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said at an EU foreign ministers meeting Monday in Luxembourg that “We’ve been always saying that we do not trust China as a mediator, as a possible mediator. It definitely has chosen a side. It’s sided with Russia, politically.”    

Ammunitions for Ukraine was another top item at the Luxembourg meeting. The EU has promised to deliver a million artillery shells or missiles to Kyiv within a year. But member states are at odds over whether to procure them only within the EU — France’s position to boost the bloc’s defense industry — or tap other countries.    

“I understand those who want to see the European military industry flourishing. Indeed, we need that. But if we delay currently, Ukrainians might not push as far and as successfully as they could with our assistance,” Landsbergis argued. “Therefore, speed is the main factor that we should be looking for now.”    

The EU’s Borrell predicts member states would finalize a plan to procure ammunitions for Ukraine within days.   
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The U.K. government on Monday said it was applying for a court order to stop a strike by nurses in the state-run National Health Service from going ahead.   

Health Secretary Steve Barclay said he was acting on a request from NHS Employers, which represents hospital groups in England and Wales, to declare the planned walk-out on May 2 “unlawful.”   

Nurses are due to start a new strike on the evening of April 30 and end two days later, on May 2. The government is arguing that the nurses’ union mandate for a walkout covers only the first day of the planned strike, and thus the second day would be illegal.   

“Despite attempts by my officials to resolve the situation over the weekend, I have been left with no choice but to proceed with legal action,” Barclay said.  

“I firmly support the right to take industrial action within the law — but the government cannot stand by and let a plainly unlawful strike action go ahead nor ignore the request of NHS Employers.   

“We must also protect nurses by ensuring they are not asked to take part in an unlawful strike,” he said.   

Members of the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) earlier this month voted to reject a 5% government pay offer to end their industrial action.   

Union bosses then announced an escalation of walkouts to include staff in emergency departments, intensive and cancer care units for the first time.   

But that has led to fears about the provision of critical care for patients, and the worsening of a growing backlog in appointments and procedures.   

The government is relying on legislation that stipulates unions have six months from the initial vote for strike action to walk out.   

It maintains the RCN’s lawful ballot mandate ends at 11:59 pm on May 1. 

The RCN has accused NHS Employers of “seeking to discredit” the action on May 2 and will “strongly resist any application for injunctive relief from any or all NHS employers.” 
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Russia has threatened to scrap the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which enables the safe export of grain from Ukrainian ports onto the world market. The threat comes as members of the G-7 group of rich nations are reportedly mulling further sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is due to discuss the grain deal with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in New York this week.

Export ban

The G-7 countries are considering a near total ban on all exports to Russia, Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported April 21, citing Japanese government sources.

“The G-7 countries have already stopped exporting a wide range of items to Russia, including products that can be used for military purposes and luxury goods. But the latest plan could expand the trade embargo to used cars, tires, cosmetic items and clothing,” Kyodo reported.

The G-7 includes Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, currently deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, wrote on the social media site Telegram that if the G-7 implements such a ban, Moscow will terminate the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

“This idea from the idiots at the G-7 about a total ban of exports to our country by default is beautiful in that it implies a reciprocal ban on imports from our country, including categories of goods that are the most sensitive for the G-7. In such a case, the grain deal — and many other things that they need — will end for them,” Medvedev wrote Sunday on Telegram.

Grain deal

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the U.N. and Turkey last July, enables the vital export of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports onto world markets through the joint inspection of vessels at a facility in Istanbul.

Ukraine is the world’s fifth biggest grain producer, and around 28 million tons have been exported under the deal since July. Its termination could have a devastating impact amid a global food crisis, said Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the London-based Center for Global Development.

“If the Black Sea deal isn’t renewed and Ukraine can’t export, then I expect to see food commodity prices to increase substantially again,” Mitchell told The Associated Press.

Professor Stephen Flynn, founding director of the Global Resilience Institute at Boston’s Northeastern University, said any such price spike would have grave implications for security.

“Anything that disrupts the food supplies has a dramatic effect, not just on potentially putting lives at risk but also fueling instability in parts of the world that already are facing significant violence and disruption,” Flynn told VOA.

May expiration

Moscow had already indicated it may not renew the grain deal beyond its next expiration on May 18, well before the reports of a G-7 export ban. The deal is supposed to be renewable every 120 days. At the last renewal in March, Russia agreed to extend the deal for only 60 days.

The Kremlin says a separate but parallel memorandum of understanding it had agreed with the U.N. to help Russia’s own agriculture sector in the face of Western sanctions is failing.

“Namely, the removal of any obstacles to the export of Russian fertilizers and grain — practically nothing has been done here,” Lavrov said April 20 during a visit to Cuba.

Despite that claim, figures show Russian wheat exports actually doubled in the first two months of 2023 compared to 2022, according to Bloomberg.

Russian demands

Among the Kremlin’s demands are the return of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT global payment system, the resumption of supplies of farm machinery to Russia, and the lifting of restrictions on insurance and access to ports for Russian ships and cargo.

“Certainly, those demands cannot be fully met, and the Russians know it,” said Flynn. “They’re again trying to leverage food to get all the concessions they can get. They’re doing it at a time when it’s almost certain that we’re going to see an uptick in the conflict, with the Ukrainians potentially trying to really push back the Russian positions.”

Inspections

So, what happens if Russia terminates the grain initiative?

“In theory, if the Russians opt out of doing the inspections, the inspections could be done without them. And the inspections are to confirm that the ships coming in to pick up grains are carrying agricultural products, not weapons,” Flynn said.

“If Russia clearly decides to be aggressive and mine the areas where the ships move, [or] potentially target those ships, then the ships aren’t going to move, and insurance rates would go very high. Decisions would be made by shipowners not to come into the Black Sea. And that would really put a strangle on the flow of grains,” Flynn told VOA.

UN response

The U.N. has also urged Russia to extend the deal.

“Our message is clear: We urge all involved to meet their responsibilities to ensure that vessels continue to move smoothly and safely in the interest of global food security. … The positive humanitarian impact all over the world of the initiative is evident and not limited to its exports to specific low-income countries. It’s in everyone’s interest to keep it going and to work within the agreed-to policy procedures,” Stéphane Dujarric, spokesperson for U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, told reporters on April 12.

G-7 agriculture ministers meeting in Miyazaki, Japan, called for the grain deal to be extended.

“We condemn Russia’s attempts to use food as a means of destabilization and as [a] tool of geopolitical coercion and reiterate our commitment to acting in solidarity and supporting those most affected by Russia’s weaponization of food,” the ministers said in an official communiqué issued April 23.
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The severe divisions between Western nations and Russia over its invasion of Ukraine overshadowed a U.N. Security Council meeting presided over by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday.

Russia holds the rotating presidency of the 15-nation council this month. Before even entering the chamber to discuss Moscow’s chosen theme of “effective multilateralism through the defense of the principles of the U.N. Charter,” Western nations denounced the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine and its hypocrisy in choice of meeting topic.

“By organizing this debate, Russia is trying to portray itself as a defender of the U.N. Charter and multilateralism,” European Union Ambassador Olaf Skoog said, surrounded by envoys from all 27 EU nations. “Nothing can be further from the truth. It is cynical. We all know that while Russia is destroying, we are building. While they violate, we protect. The U.N. Charter, the U.N. General Assembly, the ICJ [International Court of Justice], the ICC [International Criminal Court]—everywhere you look, Russia is in contempt.”

U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, flanked by her Canadian and Irish counterparts, told reporters that Russia has repeatedly violated universal human rights and fundamental freedoms both domestically and abroad.

She was accompanied by the sister of American Paul Whelan, who was arrested on espionage charges while on a visit to Moscow. He has been in detention in Russia since December 2018 and is currently being held at a remote penal colony.

“Paul has not committed a crime, but a crime has been committed against him,” Elizabeth Whelan told reporters.

She said her brother is a “pawn and victim” of Russia and its strategy to detain American citizens to extract concessions from Washington.

“This is not the work of a mature and responsible nation; it is the action of a terrorist state,” Elizabeth Whelan said. “Paul was first in what has been an escalating series of wrongful detentions by Russia. First, my brother Paul Whelan, then Trevor Reed, both tourists. The sports star Brittney Griner. And now the journalist Evan Gershkovich.”

Reed was released in April 2022 and Griner in December. Both were part of prisoner exchanges between Moscow and Washington. Gershkovich was in Russia as the Moscow correspondent for the U.S. newspaper the Wall Street Journal when he was arrested on March 29 during a reporting trip and accused of spying.

Inside the Security Council chamber, the Russian foreign minister, with no hint of irony, complained that Russian reporters who had applied to cover his New York trip only received their U.S. visas as his plane took off, and he directly appealed to the reporters covering the meeting.

“So, I request, insist, that you compensate for the loss of the presence of Russian journalists,” Lavrov said. “Try to make your reporting objective so that the international community has a genuinely multilateral objective overview in your assessments and the facts provided.”

Lavrov sat next to Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as the U.N. chief condemned the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in violation of the United Nations Charter and international law, is causing massive suffering and devastation to the country and its people and adding to the global economic dislocation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic,” Guterres said.

Turning to the topic of the debate—effective multilateralism—the U.N. chief said there must be better cooperation to strengthen multilateral institutions.

“Members of this council, particularly those that enjoy the privilege of serving permanently, have a particular responsibility to make multilateralism work, rather than contribute to its dismemberment,” Guterres said. Russia is among the five permanent members of the 15-nation Security Council, along with Britain, China, France and the United States.

Lavrov’s remarks went on for nearly 25 minutes in a sometimes-incoherent ramble of familiar themes—Russia is fighting Nazis in Ukraine; NATO is a threat to Russia; sanctions are illegitimate; the West never intended to implement the Minsk Agreements but only wanted to buy time to arm Ukraine.

He added that the United States wanted “to leverage the openly racist regime” in Kyiv in the hope of weakening Russia and eliminating its competitors.

“It is clear to all, even though not everybody talks about this, it is not at all about Ukraine,” Lavrov said. “It is about how international relations will continue to be shaped through the establishment of a sound consensus on the basis of balance of interests or through the aggressive and volatile advancement of Washington’s hegemony.”

The council meeting was held at the ministerial level, but of the 15 council members, only Gabon and Ghana sent their deputy foreign ministers, and the United Arab Emirates sent a minister of state. Most of the other members were represented at the ambassador level.

Foreign Minister Lavrov and Secretary-General Guterres met Monday afternoon for private discussions that lasted nearly one and half hours.

Their meeting comes just weeks before the May 18 deadline Russia has set for the U.N. to meet its conditions to extend a deal that facilitates the exports of Ukrainian grain and Russian grain and fertilizer through the Black Sea. Moscow has complained for months that it is not benefiting from the nine-month-old deal.

The U.N. said in a readout of the meeting that the secretary-general gave Lavrov a letter for President Vladimir Putin, “outlining a proposed way forward aimed at the improvement, extension and expansion” of the deal, known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The U.N. said the proposal takes into account positions expressed by the parties and the risks posed by global food insecurity, as well as a “detailed report” on the progress already achieved in addressing Moscow’s concerns about its food and fertilizer shipments.

A similar letter is being sent to Ukrainian and Turkish officials. Turkey is one of the signatories to the grain deal, and ships traveling to and from Ukraine pass through the Bosphorus Strait and are inspected by a joint team in Istanbul.
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With Russian troops occupying almost 20% of Ukrainian territory in Europe’s first major conflict since World War Two, Latvia, one of Russia’s Baltic neighbors, is reorganizing its defenses – reenergizing its volunteer force and raising discussions about reinstating its draft system. Marcus Harton narrates this report from Ricardo Marquina in the Latvian capital, Riga.
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