Nearly a year has passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent millions of Ukrainians fleeing to other countries, including to neighboring Poland. Lesia Bakalets reports from Warsaw on how some Ukrainians have adapted to life in Poland and are affecting the economy. Camera: Daniil Batushchak.
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Month: February 2023
Russian Parliament Approves Putin’s Suspension of Nuclear Pact with US
Both houses of Russia’s parliament on Wednesday endorsed President Vladimir Putin’s suspension of Moscow’s participation in the 2010 New START nuclear arms treaty with the United States, casting it as a rebuke to the U.S.-led Western alliance arming Ukraine in its bid to fend off Russia’s year-long invasion.
Putin announced suspension of Russia’s involvement in the last remaining nuclear arms treaty with the U.S. during his state-of-the-nation speech on Tuesday. The pact, set to expire in 2026, limits each country to a maximum of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads.
Putin said Russia can’t accept U.S. inspections of its nuclear sites under the pact while Washington and its NATO allies have called for Russia’s defeat in Ukraine. But the Russian Foreign Ministry said the country would respect the caps on nuclear weapons set under the treaty.
U.S. President Joe Biden, speaking in Warsaw where he was meeting with the leaders of the eastern flank of NATO countries closest to Russia, called Putin’s suspension of the nuclear pact a “big mistake.”
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council that is chaired by Putin, said Wednesday that the suspension of Russia’s participation in the pact signaled to the U.S. that Moscow is ready to use nuclear weapons to protect itself.
“If the U.S. wants Russia’s defeat, we have the right to defend ourselves with any weapons, including nuclear,” Medvedev said on his messaging app channel. “Let the U.S. elites who have lost touch with reality think about what they got. If the U.S. wants Russia to be defeated, we are standing on the verge of a global conflict.”
Leonid Slutsky, the head of the foreign affairs committee in the lower house, the State Duma, emphasized that the suspension is “reversible and can be reviewed if our Western opponents come back to reason and realize their responsibility for destroying the global security system.”
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said it would be up to Putin to decide whether Moscow could return to the pact. “The president will determine if and when the conditions for reviewing or clarifying [Tuesday’s] decision emerge,” he told reporters.
The diplomat noted that Russia’s satellite surveillance capability will allow it to keep track of U.S. nuclear forces even without exchanges of data and inspections that were envisaged by the treaty.
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Ukrainian Family Finds New Home in Texas
The Avtushenkos spent the past year living in war-torn Ukraine, but with a new baby on the way, the family left the country to start anew in Texas. Deana Mitchell has the story.
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Poland Braced for More Refugees, as Fighting Intensifies in Ukraine
Millions of Ukrainians fled into Poland in the first months of Russia’s invasion. A year on, the chaotic scenes at the border have eased – and many Ukrainians now cross back and forth from their home country. As Henry Ridgwell reports from the border town of Przemyśl, Poland is braced for a new influx of refugees as the fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine. Videographer: Henry Ridgwell
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Poland Braces for More Refugees as Fighting Intensifies in Ukraine
Poland is braced for a spike in the number of refugees arriving from Ukraine, as fighting intensifies in the east ahead of the anniversary of Russia’s invasion on February 24.
Millions of Ukrainians fled into Poland in the first weeks of the war as a huge Russian column bore down on the capital, Kyiv. Every day, tens of thousands of refugees arrived in the Polish border city of Przemyśl by road, rail or on foot.
Ukraine successfully defended the capital and pushed back Russian forces in the ensuing months, eventually recapturing swathes of territory around Kharkiv and Kherson. As spring approaches, both Russia and Ukraine are preparing to launch new offensives, which could force thousands more Ukrainians to flee their homes.
Chaos
A year since the start of the invasion, the chaotic scenes in Przemyśl have eased. Many Ukrainians still travel through the city to cross back and forth from their home country.
“There’s quite a steady flow going both ways,” said Charlotte Farrar, an American volunteer with the charity Fastlane Ukraine, which operates in Przemyśl. “In recent days… we saw quite a spike in first time refugees, especially coming out of Kyiv, which is quite unusual.”
“We’re thinking maybe that has something to do with the upcoming anniversary. Either people feeling afraid of what’s to come, or sort of having the gravity of what’s been happening for the past year hit them all over again as they’ve been struggling through the winter without electricity, heating, clean water and so on,” Farrar told VOA.
“Quite a bit we see people coming out of de-occupied zones, where they might not have been able to leave for quite a few months. But I would still say probably at least 50 percent of people coming out have been out of Ukraine since February 24th [2022] and have gone back for some reason and are leaving again,” Farrar said.
Psychological toll
Among the dozens of Ukrainians lining up at Przemyśl station for the train to Lviv, just over the border in Ukraine, was 55-year-old Olga Schust. She works in Poland but frequently returns to look after her parents, who are too old to escape the war. Fighting back tears, she told VOA that 12 months of brutal fighting and displacement have taken a toll on her mental health.
“Psychologically, I can’t stand it all. I’m helping as much as I can. I help at the Orthodox church. We’re collecting [aid] and helping as much as we can at a time like this, because what more can we do?”
“How can you kill other people like that? The 21st century, everything is moving forward, and here is such despair. People at my age have their lives laid out, they have plans for the future. And it’s all destroyed,” Schust told VOA.
Returning home
Nearby, Anna Federova and her two young children are also preparing to board the train to return home to Zaphorizhia, just tens of kilometers from the front line. The husband and father, Andriy, has brought them to Przemyśl station. He is staying in Poland, where he works as a driver. The family won’t meet again for at least another month.
“The war is close by, but I still want to go home,” Anna told VOA. “The children, for a while, were very worried, very afraid. But then, I guess everyone just got used to it, you know. Even when you walk and feel the explosions, somehow it is accepted more calmly.”
Coping with the war and getting Stronger
Taisiia, who did not want to give her family name, and her infant daughter Juliana, had just arrived in Przemyśl from Kyiv. After a year of traveling back and forth, she said she is learning to cope with the war.
“I’m stronger. And it’s not so scary anymore. And there is hope that everything will end soon. There was so much unknown – it seemed that nothing would work anymore. But we continue to live, to work, we continue to move. There is hope that everything will be fine soon.”
Extraordinary optimism in the face of extreme hardship. Early fears among the refugees that Ukraine would fall to Russia’s invasion are mostly gone – replaced by a stoic determination to survive and adapt as the war enters its second year.
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Ukrainian Refugees Find Welcome in Pacific Northwest
One year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, refugees fleeing the violence have settled around the world. For VOA, Deborah Bloom take us to meet a refugee mother and daughter in the U.S. Pacific Northwest state of Oregon.
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New Malaria Spreader Discovered in Kenya
Researchers in Kenya say they’ve detected an invasive mosquito that can transmit malaria in different climates, threatening progress to fight the parasitic disease. Kenya’s Medical Research Institute this week urged the public to use mosquito nets and clean up areas where mosquitos can breed.
Kenya has detected the presence of a new malaria carrier, which was first discovered in the region in Djibouti in 2012.
The new carrier, the Anopheles stephensi mosquito, transmits plasmodium vivax, the parasite the causes the deadliest type of malaria.
Bernhards Ogutu is a chief researcher at Kenya Medical Research Institute. He says it was only a matter of time before the mosquito was discovered in the country after it appeared in Ethiopia and South Sudan.
“We’ve not been able to pick plasmodium vivax which is found in Asia and Kenya. It’s there in Ethiopia and this vector can also transmit it,” said Ogutu. “So that will also look at whether we might have plasmodium vivax in coming up with this new vector showing in our place. Vivax is more difficult to treat in that you can get treated and real up because it keeps staying in the body and the liver.”
Malaria affects over 229 million people each year and kills over 400,000 people, according to the World Health Organization.
More than a quarter of a million children die in Africa each year as a result of the mosquito-borne disease, including over 10,000 in Kenya.
Ogutu expresses concern for urban residents, saying that the new carrier may feed on poor environmental management systems.
“So the fact that this can survive in urban areas where water is not clean and that can transmit, that’s the worry people are having. For the time being its to monitor and see to what extent we are going to have its spreading and what impact it will be having,” said Ogutu.
Redentho Dabelen is a public officer in the Marsabit County town of Laisamis, where the vector was discovered.
He says experts are going to communities to teach people how to protect themselves from the disease.
“To sensitize them and teach them how to prevent themselves from the vector bites. We are trying to spray the houses,” said Dabelen. “We are trying to tell them about the disease through the community health volunteers and if they get infected they go to the hospital.”
According to the researchers, the population should continue to use malaria control tools such as sleeping under mosquito nets and practicing good environmental management and sanitation.
In 2021, the WHO approved a malaria vaccine for children aged five months to two years that has been shown to reduce child deaths.
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Russia Says No Firing Hypersonic Missile at South Africa War Games
Russia has said it will not test fire a hypersonic missile during joint naval drills with China and South Africa, contradicting earlier reports in Russian state media.
A senior Russian naval official told a news conference in Richards Bay, on South Africa’s east coast, that the country had no plans to fire the Zircon missile during the ten-day exercise, Reuters reported Wednesday.
A frigate that carries the weapon, the Admiral Gorshkov, is in South African waters — one of several Russian ships deployed to Exercise Mosi II.
Russian news agency TASS reported earlier this month that the Zircon — which President Vladimir Putin has called “unstoppable” — could be used in a training launch during the exercise.
That drew condemnation from South Africa’s main opposition Democratic Alliance as well as the Ukrainian Association in South Africa. South African officials denied the report.
Speaking to reporters Wednesday, Captain Oleg Gladkiy, who is heading the Russian contingent, said, “The hypersonic weapon will not be used in the context of these exercises… There is no hidden meaning in the exercises that we are performing today,” according to Reuters.
South Africa has been heavily criticized for going ahead with the exercises, which coincide with the first anniversary of the ongoing Ukraine war. But the South African government, which has officially remained neutral on the conflict, has defended its right to hold drills with “friends.”
The ruling African National Congress party has a long relationship with Moscow, dating back to the days when the Soviet Union supported the ANC’s struggle against white minority rule.
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Pope Francis Highlights ‘Sad Anniversary’ of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion
Pope Francis Wednesday noted what he called the “sad anniversary” of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking during his weekly general audience, the pope called the conflict an “absurd and cruel war.”
“Let us remain close to the martyred Ukrainian people and ask ourselves: has everything possible been done to stop the war?” the pope said. “I appeal to those in authority over nations to make concrete efforts to end the conflict, to reach a cease-fire and to start peace negotiations.”
Pope Francis has repeatedly called for peace since Russia sent its troops into Ukraine on February 24 last year. The day before the invasion, he urged all parties to avoid any actions that would cause people more suffering and said the threat of war had brought “great pain in my heart.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Tuesday accused Russia of “mercilessly killing” civilians in the southern city of Kherson following a missile strike that left five people dead and 16 others injured.
“A vehicle park, residential areas, a high-rise building, and a public transport stop were hit,” Zelenskyy said on the Telegram social messaging app. “The Russian army is heavily shelling Kherson. Again, mercilessly killing the civilian population.”
“The world has no right to forget for a single moment that Russian cruelty and aggression know no bounds,” the Ukrainian leader said. He posted photographs online showing corpses lying in the street.
Russia has denied targeting civilians.
Ukraine recaptured Kherson in November after eight months of Russian occupation, forcing Russian forces to abandon the only regional capital they had seized since invading Ukraine on February 24 of last year. But Moscow’s shelling of the city continues.
Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration, said Russian troops had targeted the city “probably by Grad” multiple rocket-launchers and that 20 explosions were heard.
The attack came as Russian President Vladimir Putin was defending the invasion in a speech before the Russian parliament in Moscow, and a day after U.S. President Joe Biden made a historic visit to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, to assure Zelenskyy of the continued support of the United States and its Western allies.
Some information for this story came from Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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Biden to Meet with NATO Eastern Flank Leaders
U.S. President Joe Biden meets Wednesday with leaders from NATO’s eastern flank to show support for their security.
The so-called Bucharest Nine includes Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, and most are among the strongest supporters of military aid to Ukraine.
Biden Tuesday used a speech in Poland’s capital, Warsaw, to defend NATO’s year-long effort to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s invasion and vowed it would not stop.
“One year ago, the world was bracing for the fall of Kyiv,” Biden told the over ten thousand Poles gathered outdoors at Poland’s Royal Castle complex. “Well, I’ve just come from a visit to Kyiv, and I can report Kyiv stands strong. It stands tall. And most important, it stands free.”
Biden promised that support for Ukraine will not waver, and NATO will not be divided. “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never,” he declared, saying the alliance is “more resolved than ever” in supplying munitions and humanitarian aid to non-NATO member Ukraine to help it defend itself against Russia.
Fresh off his dramatic visit to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, on Monday, Biden assailed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the invasion he launched a year ago this Friday and said the Russian leader could just as easily end the warfare. “The West is not plotting to attack Russia as Putin said today,” Biden declared.
“The democracies of the world have grown stronger” in their pushback against Russian aggression, Biden said, adding “The autocracies of the world have grown weaker.”
Biden used part of his speech in front of an applauding crowd to reiterate what Vice President Kamala Harris announced just days earlier at the Munich Security Conference, that the U.S. has determined Moscow has committed “crimes against humanity” and “atrocities” against the Ukrainian people.
“They’ve committed depravity, crimes against humanity without shame or compunction,” Biden said.
Specifically, he accused Russia of “targeting civilians with death,” using rape as “a weapon of war,” stealing Ukrainian children by forcibly removing them from their homeland and launching airstrikes against train stations, maternity wards, hospitals, schools and orphanages.
“No one, no one can turn away their eyes from the atrocities Russia is committing against the Ukrainian people. It’s abhorrent,” Biden said.
Russia has denied targeting civilians.
The administration pushed back against Moscow’s claim, made by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev on his Telegram channel Monday, that “Biden, having previously received security guarantees, finally went to Kiev.”
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told VOA in a briefing to reporters Tuesday that the U.S. did not receive such guarantees. Sullivan said the U.S. informed Moscow of the security accompanying Biden to ensure they know “what they would be seeing and what President Biden would be doing.”
“Just to let them know he would be there in this time period and the means by which he was traveling and that he would be out on this timetable, the means by which he was traveling out,” he said. “We conveyed that information. They acknowledged receipt. End of story.”
US-Poland ties
Earlier Tuesday, Biden began his second trip to Poland in a year by meeting with President Andrzej Duda, thanking the Polish leader for his support for Ukraine and calling U.S.–Poland ties a “critical relationship.” He underscored Washington’s commitment to the principle of collective defense in Article 5 of the NATO charter and assured Duda that the alliance will respond if Russia expands its war beyond Ukraine and launches an attack on Poland.
“And we reaffirmed our ironclad commitment to NATO’s collective security, including guaranteeing that the command headquarters for our forces in Europe are going to be in Poland, period,” he said.
Biden said the two countries are launching “a new strategic partnership” with plans to build nuclear power plants and bolster Poland’s energy security.
Poland has been an unwavering ally of Ukraine, its neighbor, providing billions of dollars in weapons and humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy’s government, welcoming Ukrainian refugees and providing a critical logistics hub for military assistance for Kyiv.
On Monday Biden announced $460 million in new military aid for Ukraine and said his administration will soon announce another new wave of sanctions against individuals and companies “that are trying to evade or backfill Russia’s war machine.”
Geopolitical symbolism
The speech in Warsaw delivered by the American president to mark the war anniversary carries significant geopolitical symbolism. During the Cold War, Poland was locked behind the Iron Curtain as a signee of the Warsaw Pact, a military treaty established in 1955 by the Soviet Union and several Eastern European countries to counterbalance NATO, the Western military alliance. The Warsaw pact was dissolved on July 1,1991.
The backdrop of Biden’s speech was Warsaw’s Royal Castle, whose construction began in the 1300s and has witnessed many notable events in Poland’s history, including the drafting of the first constitution of a European state in 1791. Now a UNESCO World Heritage Site, the castle was destroyed by Nazi Germany during World War II and later rebuilt.
Warsaw is an appropriate place to reiterate U.S. commitment to European security, said Ian Lesser, vice president of the German Marshall Fund.
“Poland is very much on the front line and will remain so whatever the course of the war in Ukraine. The country occupies a critical position in allied deterrence and defense and is the key logistical hub for assistance headed to Ukraine,” he told VOA. “The fact that the president’s speech takes place in the Cold War birthplace of the Warsaw Pact will not be lost on observers, not least Russians.”
A few hours before Biden’s speech, President Vladimir Putin delivered remarks to Russia’s Federal Assembly in which he blamed Western countries for provoking conflict and announced that Moscow will stop participating in the new START (Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty), the last major remaining nuclear arms control agreement with the U.S.
Putin also said Western economic sanctions against Russia had not “achieved anything and will not achieve anything.”
Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and Reuters.
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Biden Defends Western Support of Ukraine Against Russia’s Yearlong Invasion
Fresh off his surprise visit to Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, President Joe Biden delivered a speech from the Royal Castle in Warsaw, Poland, on Tuesday, marking the 1-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion by highlighting how the United States has unified NATO and the West in support of Ukraine. White House Bureau Chief Patsy Widakuswara brings this story from Warsaw.
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Who Will Emerge as Nigeria’s Next President?
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, goes to the polls Saturday to elect a new president amid worsening insecurity and economic struggles. Tensions over shortages of cash and fuel could also influence how people vote. Timothy Obiezu reports from Abuja, Nigeria.
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US Agrees to Extradite Former Peruvian President Toledo – Peru Attorney General’s Office
Peru’s attorney general’s office said Tuesday on Twitter that the U.S. State Department had agreed to extradite former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo on corruption charges.
Peru has been trying to extradite Toledo, the Andean country’s president between 2001 and 2006, since 2018.
Peruvian authorities allege that Toledo negotiated bribes of up to $20 million with Brazilian construction conglomerate Odebrecht. Toledo has denied soliciting or receiving bribes.
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Somali Security Forces End Al-Shabab Siege Near Mogadishu
Somali security forces have ended a more than 7-hour-long siege of al-Shabab militants at a residential building in the east of Mogadishu, the Somali government said.
The Ministry of Information said 10 people were killed by the militants and seven were injured, including four security personnel who were involved in the operation to end the siege.
The government said the victims were innocent civilians and “martyrs.”
In a statement the ministry said four militants behind the attack were killed.
The militants raided a care home for members of the pro-government forces who have been injured in military operations in central Somalia.
“An explosion that didn’t really sound like the typical explosion occurred, and I had a bad feeling, although my friends disagreed that it was an explosion,” said a resident in the area who requested anonymity for security reasons.
“A minute later sporadic gunfire started, and it was clear what was taking place. I thought it was the Djibouti Embassy because it’s the only high-profile building in the area but later realized that injured Ma’awisley from Hiran were the target of the attack.”
Since August of last year, Somali government forces supported by locally mobilized fighters known as Ma’awisley have been conducting military operations against al-Shabab, which drove the militant group from vast territories in the central regions.
Al-Shabab has been carrying out retaliatory attacks against local community elders and commanders who have supported the federal government.
The government has confirmed that a militant bomber detonated a suicide vest in front of the building in Abdiaziz district about 3 p.m. local time.
Following the explosion, four al-Shabab militants stormed the building.
Gunfire and explosions continued intermittently for hours as the government forces fought to take over the building.
The al-Shabab militant group claimed responsibility for the attack. In a statement the group said its fighters targeted the building housing “apostate” militias who participated in the fighting in Hiran, the region where mobilizations started in August last year.
Al-Shabab claimed to have killed 70 people in the attack, a figure that has not been independently verified.
Meanwhile, the Somali government on Tuesday reported killing more than 42 al-Shabab fighters in the latest operation in the Cadalay village near Mahaday town of the Middle Shabelle region.
In a statement, the Ministry of Information said government forces, local fighters and international partners were involved in the planned operation, which lasted more than 30 hours.
Casualty figures given by the government have not been independently verified.
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Eight US States Consider Banning Drag Artists From Performing for Kids
Some conservative-led U.S. states are weighing measures to prevent female impersonators, known as drag queens, from performing at any venues visited by children. They say it’s about keeping kids safe, but critics say it’s part of a larger anti-LGBTQ agenda. Maxim Moskalkov has the story. Videographer: Aleksandr Bergan
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Scores Killed in Cameroon’s Battles with Separatists Ahead of Senate Elections
Cameroon’s military says it has killed scores of armed separatists in clashes this month and at least 15 have surrendered. The rebels, who vowed to disrupt March senate elections in Cameroon’s western regions, claim to have killed scores of government troops.
Ndop district residents in Cameroon’s restive Northwest region say seven bodies were found in bushes Tuesday morning, following heavy fighting between separatist rebels and government troops.
Ndop businessman Anyam Edison Penn said the clashes halted trade in Ngoketunjia, where Ndop is located. He spoke to VOA from Ndop via a messaging app.
“For the past weeks fighting in Ngoketunjia has been very very intensive between the separatists and the defense forces, and this has been affecting so many lives, so many persons killed and it has been a burden on our side,” Penn said. “Thousands of people were like they were in a cage. I pray and hope that the crisis will be resolved so that we, the civilians, should not be suffering like this.”
Cameroon’s Anglophone separatists have vowed to disrupt the March 12 elections for Senate and last month killed two election officials.
Cameroon’s government said at least 15 rebel fighters were killed in ongoing clashes this month around Ndop while the military said it killed at least 30 rebels in other northwestern towns.
Cameroon’s highest-ranking official in the area, Handerson Quetong Kongeh, said military raids Monday night targeted at least five separatist camps.
Capo Daniel is a spokesman and self-proclaimed deputy defense chief for one rebel group, the Ambazonia Defense Forces. He said separatists and government troops sustained casualties in this month’s clashes.
“We have killed over 38 Cameroon military men since Paul Biya announced the election,” Daniel said. “We have authorized our forces to carry out attacks on critical infrastructure. Our recruitments are high, our spirits are high, and we will continue to attack the Cameroon military. We have called for appropriate punishment for those who violate this ban against the election.”
Cameroon’s military acknowledged it took casualties in the fighting but would not give any figures and has not responded to requests for comment.
Despite the threats and ongoing clashes, Cameroon officials say election preparations will continue.
The military said about 15 rebels surrendered and were handed to Cameroon’s centers for Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR).
DDR country director Francis Fai Yengo said one of the rebels who surrendered was a self-proclaimed general.
Yengo spoke Monday to state broadcaster Cameroon Radio Television.
“We continue to call on those misguided youths that are still in the bush, that are still reluctant to come out to forget about the past and seize the opportunity President Paul Biya has offered to come out of the bushes and make sure that this adventure which they undertook never repeats itself again in our country,” he said.
Yengo said the DDR centers offer social and jobs skills training to help former rebel fighters reintegrate.
The separatist conflict broke out in 2016 when Anglophone Cameroonians protested discrimination by the Francophone majority.
Cameroon’s military responded with a crackdown and rebels took up arms with the aim of carving out an independent state they call Ambazonia.
The U.N. says fighting has since killed at least 3,500 people and displaced 750,000.
Canada, which is attempting to negotiate an end to the conflict, says more than 6,000 people have been killed and the unrest has deprived 600,000 children of education.
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Somali People ‘Highly Traumatized’ After Years of Conflict
Decades of violence and humanitarian crises have left many Somali people traumatized, according to a health study by the U.N. and Somali organizations. Harun Maruf reported from Washington and Abdulkadir Zubeyr in Mogadishu spoke to mental health doctors and patients in the country. They have this report narrated by Salem Solomon. Camera: Abdulkadir Zubeyr. Video editor Betty Ayoub.
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Calculating the Economic Toll From Turkey’s Massive Earthquakes
As Turkey continues to mourn the tragic loss of human life caused by two powerful back-to-back earthquakes two weeks ago, there are emerging assessments of the cost of rebuilding, plus the broader financial toll it has taken on the vulnerable economy.
The Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation estimated the cost of reconstruction at more than $80 billion in its preliminary report issued four days after the quakes.
U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley put the housing costs alone at around $38 billion, while JPMorgan said the estimated cost of rebuilding houses and infrastructure would be around $25 billion.
Those tallies do not account for the economic damage to businesses in the disaster zone, where some 13.5 million people lived and worked, accounting for nearly 10% of the country’s economic activity.
For comparison, in 1999, a massive tremor shook Izmit, Turkey’s industrial heartland, which at the time accounted for more than 30% of the country’s GDP.
Following that quake, the country’s economic growth shrank by 3.3%.
World Bank economists tell VOA, while it’s too early to forecast the toll from the recent quakes, they are watching several key factors.
Slower growth expected
The IMF had predicted the Turkish economy would grow at a rate of 3% this year. But many experts say the earthquakes, the most powerful to hit Turkey in almost a century, could reduce that by at least one-third.
Speaking to VOA from London, Timothy Ash, a Turkey analyst from BlueBay Asset Management, says the direct economic impacts are likely to be more moderate in comparison to the 1999 earthquake, because quakes mostly affected agricultural and rural areas this time.
Once the immediate aftermath of the disaster passes, he expects to see a growth boost in the medium term when reconstruction begins.
World Bank economists say that typically, reconstruction by the private and public sectors in the aftermath of a major disaster is recorded as investment in the economy. Thus, the rebuilding effort might limit the impact.
Problems rooted in economic policy
While initial analyses by financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, indicate that financing the economic loss appears manageable, experts warn that the rooted problems in Turkey’s macro-economic policy framework can make things more difficult.
Turkey was already facing challenges with an annual inflation of more than 60% and a staggering depreciation in its currency.
“While Turkey’s economy is estimated to have grown rapidly in real terms in 2022, and fiscal space remains, inflation climbed to a 24-year high, the lira depreciated, the current account deficit widened; banks’ capital buffers declined, Humberto Lopez, the World Bank country director for Turkey, told VOA.
Speaking to VOA last week, Selva Demiralp, professor of economics from Koc University in Istanbul, argued Turkey would have been better positioned to deal with the economic fallout from the earthquake if it had not already been suffering significant vulnerabilities largely blamed on the macro-economic policies of the government.
“If we were not facing such a high level of inflation and narrowed monetary policy, we would be better placed to provide extensive support and handle this more easily,” she told VOA.
Turkey is also confronted with growing external financing requirements. Ash says, depending on how much money would be needed to fund the reconstruction effort, Turkey might need some external financing in the form of loans.
Political uncertainty concerns
According to analysts, the bigger concern for the economy is the perceived political uncertainty.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced last month that the presidential and parliamentary elections were to be held May 14.
However, a recent statement posted on social media by Bulent Arınc, a former founder of the ruling AK Party and former speaker of the Turkish parliament, sparked a debate about a possible delaying of the elections in the wake of the massive devastation caused by the earthquakes. It was firmly dismissed by the opposition bloc.
International investors are monitoring Turkey’s economic and political situation. Most foreigners had exited local markets because of the government’s unorthodox economic policies.
“They are waiting to see the results of the elections scheduled for 14th May. We’ll have to wait and see if it will be held on that day. Foreigners want to see credible and orthodox policy whether it is with this administration or the next one,” Turkey analyst Ash argues.
The government was criticized for what many in the disaster zone described as a slow response and lack of coordination.
Ash says he believes the outcome of the elections depends on the quality of the disaster response and the recovery phase.
“The results of the elections and possible policy changes depending on the outcome are important for investors,” he says.
“The earthquake will be a decisive factor in determining who wins.”
This story originated in VOA’s Turkish Service.
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EPA Takes Charge of Cleanup in Toxic Ohio Train Derailment
Federal environmental regulators on Tuesday took charge of the cleanup from the East Palestine, Ohio train derailment and chemical burn and ordered Norfolk Southern to foot the bill.
The Environmental Protection Agency told Norfolk Southern to take all available measures to clean up contaminated air and water, and also said the company would be required to reimburse the federal government for a new program to provide cleaning services for impacted residents and businesses.
The EPA warned Norfolk Southern that if failed to comply with its order, the agency would perform the work itself and seek triple damages from the company.
“The Norfolk Southern train derailment has upended the lives of East Palestine families, and EPA’s order will ensure the company is held accountable for jeopardizing the health and safety of this community,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement ahead of a planned news conference with the governors of Ohio and Pennsylvania.
“Let me be clear: Norfolk Southern will pay for cleaning up the mess they created and for the trauma they’ve inflicted on this community,” he said.
“In no way shape or form will Norfolk Southern get off the hook for the mess they created,” Regan said at the press conference.
He added that he knows the order “cannot undo the nightmare that families in this town have been living with, but it will begin to deliver much needed comfort for the pain that Norfolk Southern has caused.”
The agency said it would release more details on the cleanup service for residents and businesses this week.
The EPA said its order marks the end of the “emergency” phase of the derailment and the beginning of long-term remediation phase in the East Palestine area.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine on Tuesday also acknowledged the community’s concern that it will be left to handle the aftermath on its own once the news cameras leave and public attention turns elsewhere, and he assured residents that won’t be the case.
Separately, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg announced a package of reforms Tuesday, calling on railroad operators to take immediate steps to improve safety, such as accelerating the planned upgrade of tank cars.
Some 50 freight cars derailed on the outskirts of East Palestine, near the Pennsylvania state line, prompting persistent environmental and health concerns. The derailment prompted an evacuation as fears grew about a potential explosion of smoldering wreckage.
Officials seeking to avoid the danger of an uncontrolled blast chose to intentionally release and burn toxic vinyl chloride from five rail cars, sending flames and black smoke again billowing high into the sky. That left people questioning the potential health impacts for residents in the area and beyond, even as authorities maintained they were doing their best to protect people.
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Jill Biden to Visit Namibia, Kenya for First Time as First Lady
Jill Biden left Tuesday for her first visit to Africa as first lady, with plans to visit the Southwest African nation of Namibia and the East African nation of Kenya. There, she will focus on women’s empowerment, children’s issues and the food insecurity that has ravaged parts of the continent. VOA’s Anita Powell, who is traveling with the first lady, reports from Washington.
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Calls Grow for Tribunal for Russia’s ‘Crime of Aggression’
In December, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned his ambassadors from around the world to discuss his foreign policy priorities for the new year.
Meeting in Kyiv, Zelenskyy gave the assembled diplomats “tasks and assignments” for the coming year, recalled Ukraine Ambassador-at-Large Anton Korynevych.
One of his main priorities for Ukrainian diplomacy, Zelenskyy told the group, was the creation of “an ad hoc special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine,” according to Korynevych, who is Ukraine’s point person on the issue.
This was not the first time Zelenskyy was demanding accountability for Russia’s aggressive war, without which, Ukrainian officials say, other crimes such as the atrocities in Bucha and Irpin would not have happened.
Going back to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in 2014, Kyiv has turned to every available international court to push legal claims against Moscow; the International Court of Justice, the European Court of Human Rights, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea.
“We’re in all the courts, but we see that these mechanisms and tools are not enough,” Korynevych said during a recent panel discussion at the New York City Bar Association. “There is no international court or tribunal which can try … Russian political and military leadership for the commission of the crime of aggression against Ukraine.”
Considered a “leadership crime,” the crime of aggression is defined as the “planning, preparation, initiation or execution” of an act of aggression such as an armed invasion by a country’s top political and military leadership. In the case of the Ukraine conflict, as many as 20 officials could be implicated, according to Korynevych.
In contrast to the painstakingly difficult-to-prove war crimes and crimes against humanity, proving the crime of aggression is relatively straight-forward. The evidence, according to the State Department’s top war crimes adviser, can be seen “on our front pages every day.”
Prosecuting the crime of aggression
To show what a case against Russia would look like, the Open Society has drafted a 65-page “model indictment” that names Russian President Vladimir Putin and seven subordinates. Others have suggested including Belarusian officials since Belarus has allowed Russian forces to stage attacks on Ukraine from its soil.
The International Criminal Court (ICC), created in 2002 to deal with crimes of war, has the power to prosecute the crime of aggression but it can’t investigate Russian officials for aggression because of a legal quirk: Russia is not a “state party” to the Rome Statute that established the court. While the United States played a central role in the establishment of the Rome Statute that created the ICC, the U.S. isn’t a “state party” either.
Ukrainian courts face a legal hurdle of their own.
While the Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office has been investigating senior Russian officials for their alleged complicity in the crime, prosecutors can’t bring charges in the case because under international law top Russian officials enjoy immunity in Ukrainian courts.
Hence, Ukraine’s call for a special court to prosecute the crime.
A special international tribunal is the “most feasible and efficient route for accountability,” Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin said during a recent event at Georgetown Law Center. The center works closely with Kostin’s office.
Ukraine’s push for a special tribunal, like its plea for tanks and fighter jets, was once seen as a long shot.
But as Western nations amp up efforts to beat back the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s advocacy of “no peace without justice” is finding increasingly receptive ears among its international backers.
In recent months, the proposal for a special tribunal has been endorsed by the European Parliament, the Council of Europe, the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe, NATO, as well as several foreign governments such as Britain and Germany.
As a precursor to the tribunal, the European Commission this month announced plans to launch a prosecutor’s office in The Hague to investigate the crime of aggression and identify potential defendants.
All that has imbued Ukrainian officials with renewed optimism that their once seemingly elusive goal may be closer at hand.
“Now is the momentum for the international community to hold Russian aggressors accountable for the most flagrant act committed on European soil since 1945,” Kostin said.
Court models for a possible war tribunal
The last time the crime of aggression was prosecuted was in the 1940s when German and Japanese leaders were tried in Nuremberg and Tokyo for what the International Military Tribunal called the “supreme international crime.”
Western officials say the quest for Russian accountability is not just about Ukraine. At stake is the future of a rules-based international order that has largely held since the Second World War.
“No one in the 21st century,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in The Hague last month, “must be allowed to wage a war of aggression and go unpunished.”
Yet even as Germany and other Western nations have thrown their weight behind a tribunal, they remain split over the form it should take.
In recent discussions among Ukrainian and Western officials, two competing models have emerged, according to experts involved in the discussions.
A so-called “hybrid” model, proposed by Germany, envisions “a court that derives its jurisdiction from Ukrainian criminal law.”
To ensure its legitimacy, Baerbock said, the court would be located outside Ukraine, and include international prosecutors and judges. Rather than weaken it, it would strengthen the ICC, she said.
Another hybrid model, backed by the U.K. envisages a court “integrated into Ukraine’s national justice system with international elements.” It’s unclear where this court would be based.
Competing with the composite model is a proposal for a “fully international” tribunal established through negotiations between Ukraine and the United Nations and recommended by the U.N. General Assembly.
Modeled on U.N.-backed tribunals for Sierra Leone and Cambodia, the proposed court is being backed by a group of prominent international law experts and veterans of other international tribunals who say a hybrid structure would likely “immunize” Russian leaders and potentially run afoul of the Ukrainian Constitution.
“You need an international tribunal if you’re going to go at the highest level,” said Jennifer Trahan, a law professor at New York University and convener of the Global Institute for the Prevention of Aggression.
To get it up and running, Ukraine would make a formal request to the United Nations. Once the U.N. General Assembly makes a recommendation, the United Nations and Ukraine would engage in talks to create the tribunal through a mutual treaty.
Though no government has publicly endorsed this model, Trahan said it has the support of “a handful of countries,” with “more support growing.”
The U.S., which is part of a “core group” of more than 20 countries studying proposals for a tribunal, hasn’t taken a public stand.
Nor has Ukraine made a formal request to the United Nations. Although Kyiv hasn’t ruled out other options, Korynevych voiced support for involving the United Nations in the process.
Saying U.N. support is critical for the legitimacy of any tribunal, Korynevych added, “That is why we’ll use the possibilities of the United Nations, in particular the General Assembly, in order to sound this issue, and in order to get the support of the United Nations in relation to this endeavor.”
The proposed tribunal has been met with some skepticism. For one, ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan has pushed back against the notion, warning about the potential for “fragmentation.”
An ICC spokesperson said the ICC as a court has “never made any statement about potential ad hoc tribunals.”
Other critics have raised concern that establishing a special tribunal could undercut efforts to end the Ukrainian conflict by making Russian leaders less amenable to peace.
“Someone who is fighting a war is less likely to prosecute a peace or to engage in peace talks if he thinks, ‘Hmmm, if there is peace, we’re going to The Hague,’” Senator Rand Paul, a frequent critic of U.S. foreign policy, said during a recent Senate hearing.
Responding to Paul, Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland said both goals — peace and justice — could be pursued simultaneously.
“I’d cite the precedent of Kosovo, of Bosnia, of Rwanda where we’ve successfully supported wars winding down through diplomatic means while also pursuing justice,” Nuland said.
Russia, which has sought to justify the invasion of Ukraine by accusing Ukraine of carrying out “genocide” in eastern Ukraine, has questioned the proposed tribunal’s legitimacy.
Ultimately, even if a fully international tribunal is created, it’s unclear if it would be able to conduct much of a trial while Putin holds power.
To other would-be aggressors, critics say, that failure would convey the message that they can commit aggression and get away with it.
But that’s not a reason not to pursue a mechanism for accountability, Trahan said, noting that the U.N. Security Council created an ad hoc tribunal for the former Yugoslavia not knowing that Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic would ever end up in The Hague.
But he did. In 2001, a new Serbian government arrested and handed Milosevic over to the Tribunal.
Though he died five years later before his trial was to conclude, the court eventually convicted a number of his co-conspirators, giving his victims a measure of justice.
“Never say never,” she said.
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What Joint Drills With South African, Russian Navies Mean for China
South Africa is under fire for hosting joint naval exercises with Russia during the one-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, with critics saying it will be a propaganda victory for Moscow. But what does the third participant in the drills, China, have to gain from the tripartite exercises taking place this week?
Some analysts told VOA that, in China’s case, Exercise Mosi II, off South Africa’s east coast, is less about a real exchange of military prowess and more about important political and diplomatic optics.
“China has a lot to gain from these exercises,” said Paul Nantulya, from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington. “It is sending a very powerful signal to other African countries that in-person military training is now back on the table. … China and [its] People’s Liberation Army are basically back” after years of closed borders during the pandemic.
He said the drills were also sending a message to China’s competitors, namely the U.S., that Beijing has military clout in the region. The South Africa war games are taking place at almost the same time as the U.S. Army’s Exercise Justified Accord in Kenya and just after U.S.-led maritime exercises off the Gulf of Guinea.
They also take place amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing in the wake of the U.S. shooting down an alleged Chinese spy balloon and after Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that China is considering supplying Russia with weapons for its war against Ukraine.
Priyal Singh, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria, had a similar assessment.
“This assists Beijing in illustrating to the West [and the world in general] that it has a foothold in the South Indian Ocean through its strong relations with South Africa. I believe this may be important to China, given the geopolitical contestations being played out across the Indian Ocean region,” Singh said in an email to VOA.
“I believe that the decision to proceed with these exercises was primarily driven by political considerations. Navies play important diplomatic and symbolic roles,” Singh’s ISS colleague Denys Reva added.
Darren Olivier, director at the African Defense Review, pointed out this week’s naval exercises off South Africa are limited in nature and “focused mostly on basic maneuvers and light gunnery.”
“It’s important to note that South Africa has a NATO-oriented operational and tactical doctrine that’s dissimilar to that of Russia and China, which inherently limits what can be done jointly, and unsurprisingly as a result, the exercise as described will not feature in-depth exploration or testing of any serious combat capabilities or procedures,” he said.
Asked by VOA what China seeks to gain from the exercises, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. said “the joint maritime exercise held by the navies of the three countries in the southern waters of Africa is of great significance.”
“It will help deepen the exchanges and cooperation among the navies, improve their ability to jointly respond to maritime security threats, demonstrate their determination to maintain regional maritime peace and stability and their good will and strong capabilities to actively promote the building of an ocean community with a shared future.”
China, Russia and South Africa are all members of the BRICS grouping of emerging economies, which also includes India and Brazil.
Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London, said that for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to join their Russian counterparts “in an exercise far away from China is highly beneficial,” as the Russian navy is more modernized.
Asked whether such exercises could act as preparation for an invasion of Taiwan, Tsang said they were too different, but added that “enhancing the capacity of the PLAN to operate long-distance will be beneficial in general terms to enhancing its capacity in a Taiwan Strait crisis in the future.”
The PLAN “need to train for long-distance deployments, particularly off Africa, where China is building up its interest,” he said. China has invested heavily in the continent through President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Infrastructure Initiative and is Africa’s biggest trade partner.
But there are more than economic reasons for China to join the exercises, according to Nantulya. They include having the ability to protect the many Chinese nationals working in Africa — the Chinese have been engaged in anti-piracy operations off Africa’s East coast for years — and maintain stability in countries that host Chinese peacekeepers or strategic investments.
Also, Nantulya said, it’s possible Beijing — which has only one military base in Africa, in Djibouti — is looking to establish additional bases on the continent in the next decade.
The U.S. has raised concerns about a possible Chinese base in Equatorial Guinea on the Atlantic coast.
“In terms of Russia, I think it’s quite obvious that what China has been doing is trying to provide Russia some form of platform to be able to continue conducting international relations despite the fact that it’s been heavily sanctioned,” Nantulya said. The war games that have been heavily criticized for taking place amid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
The U.S. State Department has told VOA by email, “We note with concern South Africa’s plan to hold joint naval exercises with Russia and the PRC. … We encourage South Africa to cooperate militarily with fellow democracies that share our mutual commitment to human rights and the rule of law.”
According to Chinese state media, China has sent a destroyer, a frigate and a defense ship to the exercises in South Africa, which run until February 27.
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Defending NATO’s Edge: Air Policing on Romania’s Border With Ukraine
Securing the skies has been a primary concern in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began, and for NATO countries bordering Ukraine and Russia, it is a job that is shared. Fighter pilots from Italy, Germany, the United States and others rotate through countries on the alliance’s eastern flank to keep constant watch for any threat crossing into NATO air space. VOA Pentagon correspondent Carla Babb caught up with members of the Italian Air Force as they practiced how to intercept threats entering Romania. Videographer: Mary Cieslak.
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Putin: Russia to Suspend Participation in START Nuclear Treaty
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday he is suspending Moscow’s participation in the New START treaty, the last remaining U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control pact.
The treaty signed in 2010 limits each country to a maximum of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads. It is due to expire in 2026.
Speaking during a state-of-the-nation address to the Russian Duma, or parliament, Putin said he is not completely withdrawing from the treaty at this time.
He also said Russia should be ready to resume nuclear weapons testing if the United States does so.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Russia’s announcement “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible.”
“We’ll be watching carefully to see what Russia actually does,” Blinken told reporters. “We’ll, of course, make sure that in any event, we are postured appropriately for the security of our own country and that of our allies.”
He also said the United States remains ready to talk with Russia about strategic arms limitations at any time, even as the U.S.-led Western coalition continues to supply arms to Ukraine to fight against Russia’s nearly year-long invasion.
Blinken said it is in the security interests of both countries to control their nuclear arsenals.
“I think it matters that we continue to act responsibly in this area,” Blinken said. “It’s also something the rest of the world expects of us.”
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged Putin to reconsider his decision and said, “More nuclear weapons and less arms control makes the world more dangerous.”
“Over the last years, Russia has violated and walked away from key arms control agreements,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels. “With today’s decision on New START, the whole arms control architecture has been dismantled.”
Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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