Here is a fast take on what the international community has been up to this past week, as seen from the United Nations perch.     

‘Broad agreement’ on deal to export blockaded Ukrainian grain 

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Wednesday there is “broad agreement” on a deal between Russia and Ukraine, with Turkey and the United Nations, to export millions of tons of Ukrainian grain stuck in silos since Russia’s invasion on February 24. Breaking his silence to speak to reporters at U.N. headquarters, Guterres said important and substantive progress had been made and the parties are getting closer to a comprehensive agreement. 

UN Chief Cites ‘Broad Agreement’ on Ukrainian Grain Exports 

Cross-border aid operation into Syrian renewed for six months 

On Tuesday, after days of difficult negotiations, the U.N. Security Council renewed for an initial six months the mechanism that allows humanitarians to bring about 800 aid trucks a month from Turkey into opposition-controlled areas of northwest Syria. More than 4.1 million Syrians depend on that assistance, but they will face the possibility of losing it in the dead of winter, when, at the insistence of Russia, the council will have to vote again to extend it.

UN Aid Operation to NW Syria Gets 6-Month Extension

Thousands of children maimed, raped or killed in conflicts last year

The United Nations said Monday that thousands of children in war zones suffered grave abuses last year, including rape, severe injuries and death, and that concerns are growing for children in new regions of conflict, including Ukraine. The secretary-general’s report on children in armed conflict verified nearly 24,000 grave violations against children. More than 8,000 were killed or maimed because of conflict; 6,310 were recruited and used in combat; and nearly 3,500 children were abducted, among other violations.

UN: Thousands of Children Suffer Grave Abuses in War Zones 

Gang violence driving more Haitians into poverty and hunger

The World Food Program said Tuesday that nearly half of Haiti’s 11.4 million people are facing hunger because of gang violence and soaring food costs. The violence has killed scores of people and made it more dangerous and difficult for farmers to get produce to the country’s markets. Humanitarians are also having to move food by sea and air to parts of the island nation that are too dangerous to reach by road, making aid more expensive and harder to distribute. The Security Council is due to vote late Friday on a proposed resolution that includes a ban on small arms to Haitian gangs and threatens them with sanctions if they do not end the violence. The U.N. says at least 99 people have been killed in recent days.

Gang Violence, Rising Prices, Send Food Shortages in Haiti Spiraling Out of Control 

World’s population projected to be 8 billion by November 

The United Nations projected this week that the global population will hit 8 billion people by November, and that it will gradually increase to 8.5 billion by 2050, and to more than 10 billion by 2080. That growth will come with significant economic and environmental implications. India is soon expected to overtake China as the most populated nation on Earth. 

Continued Global Population Growth Creates Challenges, Opportunities

In brief 

— Guterres urged leaders in Sri Lanka to embrace a compromise for a peaceful democratic transition, as that country experiences a political and economic crisis that saw President Gotabaya Rajapaksa resign and flee the country this week. Guterres said it is important that the root causes of the conflict and protesters’ grievances be addressed. The U.N. says humanitarian needs are on the rise, with nearly 5.7 million people in need of assistance. 

— Following the deaths of seven of its peacekeepers in Mali this year, Egypt is suspending its participation in the stabilization mission known as MINUSMA, as of August 15. Egypt is one of the largest contributors of troops and police to the mission, with 1,039 personnel. Most recently, on June 28, two Egyptian peacekeepers were killed in northern Mali and nine others were wounded when their convoy hit an improvised explosive device.

— The U.N. refugee agency said Wednesday that nearly two-thirds of refugees who fled Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion in late February plan to stay in their host country in the coming months. That compares with 16% who said they plan to return to Ukraine. Another 9% said they would go to another host country, while 10% were uncertain. Refugees said their most urgent needs are cash, jobs and housing. UNHCR estimates that at the end of June there were at least 5.5 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe, with another 7.1 million people displaced within Ukraine.

— The World Health Organization and the U.N. Children’s Fund, UNICEF, said Friday that 25 million children missed out on one or more doses of routine vaccinations last year. The report attributed the decline to factors including increased misinformation about vaccines and COVID-19-related disruptions. UNICEF said it is the largest sustained disruption in 30 years and the consequences could be deadly for many children.

Good news

Botswana is set to become the first country in Africa to achieve the 95-95-95 target of diagnosing 95% of HIV-positive individuals, providing them antiretroviral therapy and achieving viral suppression. The southern African nation is eight years ahead of the 2030 target date. The U.N. says a recent survey found 93% of people living with HIV in Botswana are aware of their status and 97.9% of them are receiving antiretroviral therapy. Of that group, 98% have achieved viral load suppression to reduce the amount of HIV to an undetectable level, which also helps prevent transmission.

Quote of note  

“In a world darkened by global crises, today, at last, we have a ray of hope.”

— Guterres on Wednesday, welcoming news from Istanbul that a deal is nearing completion on exporting Ukrainian grain that Russia has blocked in the southern Ukrainian port of Odesa.

Next week

Monday, the U.N. will commemorate Nelson Mandela’s birthday. Prince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, will deliver the keynote address in the General Assembly. He will be accompanied by his wife, Meghan Markle. The day is also marked with community service to honor the late South African leader. On what would have been Madiba’s 104th birthday, U.N. participants will do their good works at the Thomas Jefferson Park in New York’s neighborhood of East Harlem.
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Across Europe, there is a growing uneasiness that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is serving to overshadow another critical, even existential threat that could do severe damage to the West while serving the Kremlin’s interests.

Instability and the rise of terrorism across Africa, according to multiple European and NATO officials, cannot be overlooked no matter how deeply Russian President Vladimir Putin pushes into Ukraine.

And nowhere are concerns growing as fast as they are in the Sahel, the semiarid stretch of land spanning northern and western Africa from Senegal to Sudan.

“By sending a couple of thousand Wagner paramilitaries, the Russians are taking over there,” Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren told an audience in Washington Thursday. “We cannot accept that.”

Ollongren is not alone in voicing concerns about the Russian threat from Ukraine, in the east, overshadowing the threat from Africa.

“One of the worst effects this will have on the Western side in my view is that it focused attention of the European member states on the eastern front, lowering the already low level of attention on the south,” Lieutenant General Giovanni Manione, the deputy director general of the European Union Military Staff, warned a forum in Washington last month.

“It is a tragic effect. It is a huge mistake,” Manione added. “We are keeping resources [in Europe] just in case something happens, forgetting completely that actions should be taken now in another theater.”

Manione went even further, suggesting that Putin, as much as he may want to conquer Ukraine, is also adroitly using the fight there as a distraction.

“I’m not sure this is the main target of the Russians,” Manione said of Ukraine. “The main target of the Russians could be having people focused on there [Ukraine], forgetting their actions elsewhere.”

Russian paramilitary groups in Africa

Other European countries are also sounding alarms.

An Austrian Federal Intelligence Service report issued late last month warned of a “belt of instability” reaching across Africa, from the Sahara Desert and the Sahel region all the way to Somalia and the Arabian Sea.

“This instability is exacerbated by the rise of a grass-roots anti-West movement in the Sahel region and the withdrawal of European armed forces from Mali,” the report said. “Ostensibly private actors on the ground, such as the Russian Wagner Group, also play an important role here.”

Many Western officials view Wagner, a paramilitary company run by Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, as a proxy force for Putin, helping Moscow secure access to natural resources with no regard for human rights.

So far, U.S. military officials have reported the presence of Wagner mercenaries in more than a dozen African countries over the past several years. With recent deployments to Mali sparking renewed concerns, especially after Wagner forces were tied to the slaughter of 300 civilians this past March.

Wagner has also been tied to January’s coup in Burkina Faso, though U.S. officials have not confirmed the allegations.

Like their European counterparts, U.S. officials agree Russia’s involvement in Africa, and in the Sahel in particular, is worrisome, warning the payoff for countries turning to Russia, and to Wagner, often fails to deliver on Moscow’s promises.

“We’ve seen the impact and destabilizing effect that Wagner brings to Africa and elsewhere, and I think countries that have experienced Wagner Group deployments within their borders found themselves to be a little bit poorer, a little bit weaker, a little bit less secure,” U.S. Deputy Commanding General for Africa Major General Andrew Rohling told reporters last month.

But U.S. military and intelligence officials, while concerned, question whether Russian forces are capable of threatening Europe from the south.

“There’s not necessarily a concrete and cohesive plan,” one U.S. official told VOA, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss intelligence.

“They’re not a very effective organization, except for extorting money and resources,” the official added, comparing Russia’s strategy in Africa to “placing a bunch of bets on a roulette table.”

Indirect threat

NATO, in its recently adopted, updated strategic concept, also sees the threat from Russia in Africa as indirect.

“NATO’s southern neighborhood, particularly the Middle East, North Africa and Sahel regions, faces interconnected security, demographic, economic and political challenges,” the alliance document said, adding it “enables destabilizing and coercive interference by strategic competitors.”

Some experts warn it would a mistake, however, to view Russia’s actions as incoherent.

“Russia is pursuing several strategic objectives on the continent,” Joseph Siegle, director of research at the National Defense University’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies, told U.S. lawmakers Thursday.

While much of Moscow’s effort is designed to “displace and discredit Western influence,” Siegle said that is just the start.

“Russia is trying to gain control over strategic territory in North Africa, most vividly seen in Libya. This would provide Moscow with an enduring security presence on NATO’s southern border,” he said.

“Combined with port access that Moscow’s trying to gain on the Red Sea, this would put Russia in a position where it could disrupt maritime traffic through the chokeholds of the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandab [Strait] through which some 30% of global container traffic passes every year,” he warned.

Carla Babb contributed to this report.
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“The simple truth is that, as we speak, children, women and men, the young and the old, are living in terror,” International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan said at the opening of the Ukraine Accountability Conference in The Hague on Thursday, with about 40 nations in attendance.

Khan said an “overarching strategy” is needed to bring those guilty of conducting war crimes in Ukraine to justice.

Ukraine has granted the ICC jurisdiction over the crimes committed within the country, opening the door to the court’s investigations, since neither Ukraine nor Russia is an ICC member.

Ukrainian officials said Russian missiles struck the central Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia on Thursday, killing at least 23 people and wounding more than 100 others.

Police said three missiles hit an office building in the center of the city, located about 270 kilometers southwest of the capital, Kyiv. The strikes, coming from a Russian submarine in the Black Sea, damaged residential buildings in the area and engulfed 50 cars in a nearby parking lot.

“This is the act of Russian terror,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the ICC meeting in a video address.

The governor of the Vinnytsia region, Serhiy Borzov, said Ukrainian air defense systems shot down another four missiles over the area.

With a population of 370,000, Vinnytsia is one of Ukraine’s largest cities. Thousands of people from eastern Ukraine, where Russia has concentrated its offensive, have fled there since the start of the war in late February.

President Zelenskyy said the dead included a child.

“Every day Russia is destroying the civilian population, killing Ukrainian children, directing missiles at civilian objects where there is no military (target). What is it if not an open act of terrorism?” Zelenskyy wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

Russia has denied targeting civilians in Ukraine.

Warfare continues to rage in eastern Ukraine, but the British Defense Ministry said Thursday that despite continued shelling, Russian forces have not made major territorial gains in recent days.

“The aging vehicles, weapons and Soviet-era tactics used by Russian forces do not lend themselves to quickly regaining or building momentum unless used in overwhelming mass — which Russia is currently unable to bring to bear,” the British ministry said.

Grain exports

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Wednesday there is “broad agreement” on a deal between Russia and Ukraine, with Turkey and the United Nations, to export millions of tons of Ukrainian grain stuck in silos since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24.

“Today is an important and substantive step,” Guterres told reporters of developments at talks in Istanbul among the four parties. “A step on the way to a comprehensive agreement.”

The U.N. chief broke his public silence on the negotiations, pointing to a statement from Turkey’s defense minister, who said there is agreement on major points, including the creation of a coordination center with Russia, Ukraine and the U.N.; agreement on controls for checking grain at ports; and ensuring the safety of cargo ships carrying the grain out of Odesa.

“Of course, this was a first meeting,” Guterres noted. “The progress was extremely encouraging. Now, the delegations are coming back to their capitals, and we hope the next steps will allow us to come to a formal agreement.”

While Guterres would not speculate about when the final agreement would be ready, he said he hoped the parties would reconvene next week and have a final agreement. Whenever it is, he said, he would be ready to go to Istanbul to sign it.

A U.N. official with knowledge of the talks said there was an important meeting of the Russians and the Ukrainians where they were able to make a lot of progress on sticking points.

More than 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain are being stored in silos at the Black Sea port of Odesa, and dozens of ships have been stranded because of Russia’s blockade. Turkey said it has 20 merchant ships waiting in the region that could be quickly loaded and dispatched to world markets.

The grain deal has been in the works for months, with U.N. officials raising the alarm nearly immediately after the war started about the consequences for global food security if Ukraine, which is one of the world’s top grain exporters, is unable to get its harvests out.

“Truly, failure to open those ports in Odesa region will be a declaration of war on global food security,” World Food Program chief David Beasley warned at a meeting of the U.N. Security Council on May 19. “And it will result in famine and destabilization and mass migration around the world.”

WFP says 276 million people worldwide were facing acute hunger at the start of this year. They project that number will rise by 47 million people if the conflict in Ukraine continues, with the steepest increases in sub-Saharan Africa.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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A Russian arms dealer labeled the “Merchant of Death” who once inspired a Hollywood movie is back in the headlines with speculation around a return to Moscow in a prisoner exchange.

If Viktor Bout, 55, is indeed eventually freed in return for WNBA star Brittney Griner and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, as some published reports suggest, it would add to the lore around a charismatic arms dealer the U.S. has imprisoned for more than a decade.

Depending on the source, Bout is a swashbuckling businessman unjustly imprisoned after an overly aggressive U.S. sting operation, or a peddler of weapons whose sales fueled some of the world’s worst conflicts.

The 2005 Nicolas Cage movie, “Lord of War” was loosely based on Bout, a former Soviet air force officer who gained fame supposedly by supplying weapons for civil wars in South America, the Middle East and Africa. His clients were said to include Liberia’s Charles Taylor, longtime Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi and both sides in Angola’s civil war.

Shira A. Scheindlin, the former New York City federal judge who sentenced Bout before returning to private law practice, can be counted among those who would not be disappointed by Bout’s freedom in a prisoner exchange.

“He’s done enough time for what he did in this case,” Scheindlin said in an interview, noting that Bout has served more than 11 years in U.S. prisons.

He was convicted in 2011 on terrorism charges. Prosecutors said he was ready to sell up to $20 million in weapons, including surface-to-air missiles to shoot down U.S. helicopters.

Bout has steadfastly proclaimed his innocence, saying he’s a legitimate businessman and didn’t sell weapons. He’s had plenty of support from high-level Russian officials since he was first arrested. A Russian parliament member testified when Bout was fighting extradition from Thailand to the U.S.

Last year, some of his paintings were displayed in Russia’s Civic Chamber, the body that oversees draft legislation and civil rights.

Bout’s case fits well into Moscow’s narrative that Washington is lying in wait to trap and oppress innocent Russians on flimsy grounds.

“From the resonant Bout case a real ‘hunt’ by Americans for Russian citizens around the world has unfolded,” the government newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta wrote last year.

Increasingly, Russia has cited his case as a human rights issue. His wife and lawyer claimed his health is deteriorating in the harsh prison environment where foreigners are not always eligible for the breaks that Americans might receive.

Last month, Russia’s human rights commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova said: “We very much hope that our compatriot Viktor Bout will return to his homeland.”

Moskalkova said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the General Prosecutor’s Office and the Ministry of Justice were working to see if Bout might qualify for transfer to Russia to serve the rest of his sentence.

Now held in a medium-security facility in Marion, Illinois, Bout is scheduled to be released in August 2029.

“If you asked me today: ‘Do you think 10 years would be a fair sentence,’ I would say ‘yes,'” Scheindlin said.

“He got a hard deal,” the retired judge said, noting the U.S. sting operatives “put words in his mouth” so he’d say he was aware Americans could die from weapons he sold in order to require a terrorism enhancement that would force a long prison sentence, if not a life term.

“The idea of trading him shouldn’t be unacceptable to our government. It wouldn’t be wrong to release him,” Scheindlin said.

Still, she said an even exchange of Griner for Bout would be “troubling.”

The WNBA star and two-time Olympic gold medalist was arrested in February at a Moscow airport, where police said they found cannabis oil in a vape canister in her luggage. While the U.S. government has classified her as “wrongfully detained,” Griner pleaded guilty to drug possession charges on July 7 at her trial in a Russian court.

Scheindlin said Griner was arrested for something that “wouldn’t be five minutes in jail.”

That sentiment is shared by others. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch said in a July 9 editorial that Bout illegally trafficked billions of dollars of weapons “to feed wars around the world” and has “the blood of thousands on his hands,” while Griner “made a stupid mistake with a tiny amount of cannabis. She harmed no one.”

Griner could face up to 10 years in prison. Her guilty plea was not unanticipated by those who understand that similar moves commonly precede prisoner swaps. Whelan was arrested three years ago on espionage charges that the U.S. has said were trumped up and false.

In April 2012, Scheindlin imposed the mandatory minimum 25-year sentence that Bout now serves, but she said she did so only because it was required.

He was taken into custody at a Bangkok luxury hotel after conversations with the Drug Enforcement Administration sting operation’s informants who posed as officials of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, also known as the FARC. The group had been classified by Washington as a narco-terrorist group.

He was brought to the U.S. in November 2010.

The “Merchant of Death” moniker was attached to Bout by a high-ranking minister of Britain’s Foreign Office. The nickname was included in the U.S. government’s indictment of Bout.
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