A series of voyages by multiple Western allies in mid-2021 through a disputed Asian sea will incite China, the waterway’s largest claimant, to shadow the foreign ships, hit back at the countries behind them and possibly hold a live-fire drill, analysts say.At least eight countries have indicated since late July plans to send navy vessels into the resource-rich South China Sea, which stretches from Hong Kong to Borneo Island, in support of keeping it open internationally rather than ceding it to Chinese control.The HMS Defender destroyer, part of a British carrier strike group, reached the South China Sea last month, domestic media reported. It’s scheduled to join vessels from France, Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand and the United States for joint exercises near the sea. India for its part plans to send four ships over two months, according to its FILE – In this photo provided by U.S. Navy, the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and USS Nimitz (CVN 68) Carrier Strike Groups steam in formation, in the South China Sea, July 6, 2020.“It’s almost like a flock mentality — they see more and more of their friends making baby steps into this part of the world, they follow suit,” said Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.India’s defense ministry said its ship deployment “seeks to underscore the operational reach, peaceful presence and solidarity with friendly countries towards ensuring good order in the maritime domain.”Chinese defense planners should view the foreign ship movement as “shows of flag” with coordination such as “parallel cruising” rather than a direct military threat, said Alexander Huang, strategic studies professor at Tamkang University in Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army Navy may respond with more missile tests without hitting anyone, he said.This month China already announced it was planning live fire, “aircraft carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missiles exercises in the sea.“They may try again the anti-ship ballistic missile firing, since they have a pretty huge range, but I don’t see the gathering of Chinese navy assets in those areas [as foreign ships pass],” Huang said.China accuses the United States of going too far and hints at avoiding conflict.“In the regional waters, there is no room for confrontation, zero-sum games, or bloc rivalries,” the official Xinhua News Agency said in a July 31 commentary posted to its website. “The so-called ‘China threat’ is merely one of the many tricks adopted by Washington to deliberately smear China, sow discord between regional countries, and contain China’s development.”Officials in Beijing will resent India and the European governments as “extraterritorial countries” and come out with “forceful responses,” Oh said. But in calibrating its responses, he said, China will consider too that France, Germany and the U.K. are major trading partners.“I think what China would do is to very carefully have differentiated responses to all these different countries,” Oh said. “But, of course, China could not do too much as well because these are major trading partners.” Some of the 220 Chinese vessels are seen moored at Whitsun Reef, South China Sea, March 7, 2021. (Credit: Philippine Coast Guard/National Task Force-West Philippine Sea/Handout)Western-allied navies for their part might venture to the center of the sea but keep a distance from “sensitive areas” held by China, said Carl Thayer, Asia-specialized emeritus professor from the University of New South Wales in Australia.
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