FBI Finds No Single Motive for Las Vegas Mass Shooting That Killed 58

The FBI has found no clear motive for the slaying of 58 people by a sniper firing down at an outdoor concert in Las Vegas in 2017, the agency said on Tuesday after a year-long investigation of the deadliest mass shooting in modern U.S. history.

According to an FBI report, the 64-year-old gunman, Stephen Paddock, was no different from many other mass shooters driven by a complex mix of issues, ranging from mental health to stress, who wished to die by suicide.

The report also found no evidence that any ideological or political beliefs motivated Paddock, who also wounded more than 800 in the shooting rampage on Oct. 1, 2017.

“There was no single or clear motivating factor behind Paddock’s attack,” the FBI’s Behavioral Analysis Unit said.

Paddock acted alone when he planned and carried out the attack, firing more than 1,000 rounds during 11 minutes from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino. As law enforcement officers assembled in the hallway outside his hotel room, he fatally shot himself.

An important aspect of the attack was Paddock’s desire to die by suicide as he suffered a decline in his physical and mental health and financial status, the FBI report said.

“Paddock concluded that he would seek to control the ending of his life via a suicidal act,” according to the report.

He wanted to attain a degree of infamy through a mass- casualty attack and was influenced by the memory of his father, a well-known criminal, the report said.

Paddock displayed minimal empathy throughout his life and his decision to murder people while they were being entertained was consistent with his personality, according to the report.

As was his nature, he carefully planned the attack, buying an arsenal of guns and ammunition in a year-long spree and methodically researching police tactics and site selection. That work provided a sense of direction as his health declined.

He had no plan to escape the Mandalay Bay alive.

“Paddock took multiple, calculated steps to insure that he could commit suicide at a time and in a manner of his choosing,” the report concluded, adding he used surveillance cameras and brought one handgun to the room that he used to shoot himself.

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With Unrest at Home, Some Nicaraguans Flee to US

A new element has joined the flood of migrants clamoring to get into the United States — Nicaraguans fleeing their homeland’s political unrest and violence.

In recent years, Nicaraguans had been only a small drop in the wave of Central Americans trying to migrate to the U.S., mostly from the poor and crime-wracked nations of Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.

Now physicians, taxi drivers and other Nicaraguans are streaming in and applying for asylum or at least temporary protection, saying they fear they will be persecuted if forced to return home.

“I left Nicaragua because of the repression, the harassment, the intimidation I was under,” said Luis Rodolfo Ibarra Zeledon, a family doctor who says he was targeted for helping injured protesters. “If I had stayed, it is likely that they would have made me disappear somewhere.”

Nicaragua erupted in turmoil last April after the government announced a plan to cut social security benefits. Widespread protests caused the government to back down on reducing pensions, but the demonstrations grew and evolved into a movement demanding Ortega step down after 11 years in power.

Ortega called it a U.S.-supported coup attempt, and his government and allies cracked down on protests, resulting in more than 300 people being killed, according to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. Some non-governmental groups estimate more than 500 died.

While clashes have subsided, the country of 6 million people is tangled in its worst political crisis since civil war in the 1980s. Tens of thousands of people have left. According to the U.N., a large majority — at least 29,000 — fled to Costa Rica.

Some have made their way to the U.S. by plane with existing tourist visas, staying for weeks or months to see if conditions improve at home. Others cross the border from Mexico illegally, then surrender to U.S. officials and ask for asylum.

The newcomers join 444,500 Nicaraguan nationals already living in the United States, primarily in Florida and California. Most of those fled the 1977-1990 civil war or the devastation of Hurricane Mitch in 1998.

“Since April there has been a tremendous increase” of Nicaraguans, said Alfonso Oviedo Reyes, an immigration lawyer who has been offering asylum advice at public libraries in south Florida during weekends.

U.S. policies

They are reaching the U.S. at a difficult time for migrants.

President Donald Trump’s administration recently said it was ending a program that allowed earlier Nicaraguan migrants to live in the U.S. temporarily, putting more than 5,000 at risk of deportation.

It has also imposed tough new rules on asylum-seekers in general, though at the same time, it has strongly accused Ortega’s government of human rights abuses and imposed financial sanctions on high-level Nicaraguan officials. 

Ibarra, the family physician, was at a detention center in Arizona for almost three months after entering illegally from Mexico at the end of September and immediately requesting asylum. He was released in December, when two American friends put up $28,500 in bail and offered to let him live in their house in central Florida.

Ibarra said by telephone that he decided to flee after receiving death threats. One was a 24-second video sent via WhatsApp showing armed men in military camouflage along with images of Ibarra, his wife, their baby daughter and his mother. A male voice says they are awaiting orders to “settle scores.”

Ibarra said he was targeted because he assisted injured protesters at his home in the northern Nicaragua city of Esteli. At one point, masked men pulled him out of an ambulance, beat him and dumped him in a field, he said.

“I had a life, a good salary, a good job, a house, food,” Ibarra said. “I never thought I would come to the U.S. I enjoyed living in my country.”

He said he hopes his wife and 1-year-old daughter can join him in the U.S.

Nicaraguan numbers

Though there are few hard statistics yet for the past few months, the Department of Homeland Security has seen a jump in detentions of Nicaraguans trying to enter the U.S. illegally from Mexico.

About 1,000 Nicaraguans were detained along the U.S. border with Mexico in the full 12 months from October 2016 through September 2017 — a fairly typical number for recent years. But at just one point recently, the department was holding 1,300 Nicaraguans newly caught at the southern border— a figure that doesn’t include those released on bond or deported.

New asylum applications filed by Nicaraguans in immigration courts rose from 351 in fiscal year 2016 to 599 the following year and 654 in the latest fiscal year.

“Previously we nearly never saw Nicaraguan asylum-seekers,” said Alan Dicker of the Detained Migrant Solidarity Committee in El Paso, Texas, which helps detained migrants pay bail. “We have received numerous requests to post bonds for Nicaraguans.”

That increased flow is going to continue, predicts Charles Ripley, a political science professor at Arizona State University who lived in Nicaragua for eight years and visited the country in June.

“The economy has been decimated. These are people who are fearful of the government, but most importantly, there is an economic refugee problem. People are losing jobs left and right in Nicaragua,” Ripley said.

‘They will kill us’

Asylum is what Luis Antonio Campos Manzanares, a taxi driver, has in mind. He says that after he joined protests in the central Nicaraguan town of Boaco, he was pursued and threatened by police and government supporters.

“I did not know what to do,” he said while showing a picture of an uncle whose bloodied face he said was inflicted by pro-government activists. “We came here looking for some help. We can’t go back because they will kill us.”

In July, he crossed the border and surrendered to Border Patrol officers. He was released from detention in October after paying a $12,000 bond with money his family put together. Wearing an electronic ankle monitor, he lives in Miami with his mother, Reina Manzanares, a housewife who fled their homeland three years ago and has requested political asylum.

Also seeking asylum are Darling Perez, her husband and 12-month-old baby, all of whom arrived in the U.S. on tourist visas.

Perez was a pediatrician at a public hospital in the central province of Chontales and was told not to treat protesters when the disturbances broke out. She said she was fired by the hospital after she began helping wounded students at private clinics and also openly criticizing the government on social media.

She said she popped up on a “Wanted” poster showing people involved in the protests. Two of the 30 people on the poster have been detained, while others are in hiding or have fled Nicaragua, she said.

“I am in posters like if I were a terrorist,” Perez said. “I can’t go back in there.”

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Maria Butina: Naive Idealist or Dangerous Conspirator?

Even in the densely packed Soviet-era apartment blocks at the edge of this faded Siberian industrial hub, little redheaded Masha always seemed to stand out.

“She was quite an unusual kid to some extent — physically quite tall in comparison with her peers, and she was in fact much more physically developed,” says her father, Valeriy Butin, a retired 55-year-old manufacturing engineer.

“Since childhood she had the strongly marked characteristics of a leader,” he says. “She enjoyed giving commands, organizing her peers, her brother and her sister. She has always tried to carry herself as a leader. That was just natural for her.”

Soft-spoken with a patient disposition, Valeriy is also unfailingly polite. Even upon declining initial interview requests, he would nonetheless thank us for asking and apologize for needing time to consider.

Meeting my videographer and me at the cafe beside our hotel, he seems oblivious to patrons who appear to recognize him immediately, even if they don’t dare say so.

After agreeing to the interview, he waits for us out in the car where, through the cafe window, he seems adrift in an aimless stare, his thoughts likely turning to a Virginia jail cell where his daughter, Maria Valeriyevna Butina, has been held in solitary confinement since U.S. officials brought espionage-related charges against her in July.

Despite a December plea bargain, Valeriy, just like his friends and family, still cannot square the foreign media depiction of a confessed foreign agent with his precocious daughter who, until weeks of incarceration, mailed home report cards and research papers — cherished tokens of the myriad academic accomplishments the family has scrapbooked since primary school.

“She was always gifted with a good memory and inquisitive mind, a willingness to research and really grasp something new,” he says, his vocal pitch beginning to tremble. “I have no doubt it was — it is — natural for her.”

The world that shaped Masha

Touching down on the chemically treated Tarmac at Barnaul International Airport in southwestern Siberia, the pilot stops the plane at the end of the runway and pivots the nose onto a massive five-centimeter-thick expanse of plow-scarred ice and snowpack.

Descending the airplane stairs to board a bus idling in the deep freeze of early dawn, passengers trudge through the glare of a single floodlight as four policemen in matching black Ushankas look on in silence. The only sound is an engine and the rhythmic crunching of snow under boots.

Nestled between the northern borders of Kazakhstan and Mongolia, Barnaul lies 228 kilometers due south of Novosibirsk, part of what Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn described as the “Gulag Archipelago.”  Like nearly all of its centrally planned neighboring municipalities, the city, which is the administrative seat of the Altai Krai region, immediately evokes memories of its Soviet past. Once known for manufacturing tanks, ammunition and tractors, Barnaul — also like nearly all of its neighbors — has long since seen most of those jobs disappear.

A half-hour from the airport in a flat grid of city blocks where Maria Butina spent her first 20 years, camouflage-clad hunters tote bagged rifles alongside morning commuters with briefcases. For many youth, it’s the kind of place where one aspires to nothing more than one day residing anyplace else.

“The official statistics brought me into a state of dismay,” Maria wrote of regional brain drain in a 2008 essay for a local paper. “Last year the number of people leaving the region was 9,383 more than those who came to my native Altai.”

As an 18-year-old college junior, Maria was a Rotary Club member who had recently been elected to a civic organization comprising “prominent citizens of Russia, representatives of national, regional and interregional NGOs” that aimed to be a conduit between citizens and lawmakers.

“When first elected, I wondered if it would be possible to transform the region into a place with lifelong professional prospects for my peers,” wrote Butina. “Now I’m pretty confident [that]… if someone doesn’t ‘rejuvenate’ the regional elite, programs will neither succeed nor stop the young from leaving.”

Political aspirations

Adjacent to the Krai Administration building in Barnaul’s Soviets Square, the School of Real Politics (SRP) was architecturally designed to contrast with the stodgy edifice beside it that, until just years ago, still hosted regional legislative sessions.

“Maria came to the Real Politics faculty in 2005, where she instantly showed herself as an active leader,” said Konstantin Emeshin, SRP’s founder and, as Valeriy tells it, the personal mentor who perhaps more than any other individual has shaped Maria’s worldview.

Although not affiliated Altai State University, where Maria was concurrently enrolled, Emeshin’s “faculty,” as he called it, appears to be a government subsidized private organization aligned with the pro-Kremlin United Russia Party that mentors and develops aspiring politicians. Altai State University administrators did not respond to multiple inquiries about its relationship with SRP, and Emeshin declined follow-up interview requests to learn more about the organization.

The concept behind SRP, he said, is that “‘real policy’ doesn’t come from the TV set.”

“Television channels as a rule broadcast information as well as propaganda, whereas real politics is always made by [actual] deputies, officials.”

In “real politics,” he said, students are immersed in day-to-day parliamentary life, in government life, communicating directly with officials, even at the highest levels.

After her first year with the political organization, Butina’s SRP peers elected her school coordinator,a coveted position in which the student reports on legislation and wrangles VIPs for on-site events.

Smitten by her boundless energy and networking savvy, Emeshin nominated her for the prestigious Seliger forum for young leaders. The annual lakeside gathering — once dubbed “Russia’s nationalist summer camp” and sometimes attended by President Vladimir Putin — invites participants to give presentations of their work.

Having solicited the sponsorship of local businessmen, Butina would be expected to champion a regional cause.

At the time, Emeshin said, short-barrel arms legalization was strongly supported by Altai regional Governor Alexander Bogdanovich Karlin.

For the daughter of an avid hunter, a personal history of gun ownership suddenly dovetailed with a politically practical regional cause.

The gun rights cause

In Russia, private citizens can be licensed to own long-barreled shotguns, stun guns and gas pistols, but handguns and assault rifles are banned for the broader public.

Like a handful of provincial Russian politicians, Karlin had long framed pistol ownership as a civilian rights issue, but in his economically struggling region it meant more than that: Altai Krai is also home to one the few small-arms bullet manufacturers in Russia.

At Seliger, Butina connected with politically like-minded activists and expanded the pistol rights debate to the federal level, hosting roundtables throughout the country.

“It was no secret that Senator [Aleksandr] Torshin,” long an avid gun rights supporter, “was now in touch with Maria.”

“She knew everybody: [Alexei] Kudrin, [Andrey] Nechayev, she was at the top of public activities of Russia,” said Emeshin, referring to a close Putin ally and a former economic minister respectively.

Emeshin then encouraged Maria to pursue graduate work abroad.

“Having mastered real politics at the city, regional and federal level,” he told her in 2014 Facebook message, “you should certainly master the real politics at the international level.”

For personal friends of Maria, the rapid career developments came as no surprise.

“At the time, she seemed to be quite the young idealist, a person who awakes with an idea of changing the world,” said Lev Sekerzhinsky, a Barnaul-based photographer who was close to Butina before she departed for Moscow. “But unlike most people, she woke up not just with an idea but with some real energy … just a willful determination to implement all the plans to do something good.

“Every day she had to be doing something,” he recalled. “I’ve never met anyone else like her in all my life.”

Asked whether she could have turned that energy against the interests of a foreign nation, he was unconvinced.

“I’ve read trial documents saying she was doing or planning things against the United States, but I’m pretty confident she wanted to improve ties,” he said. “It’s quite a pity if she violated some laws on the way.”

Charges against her

On December 13, Butina pleaded guilty to conspiracy, engaging in unofficial diplomacy and lobbying after building relationships in American conservative circles — including the National Rifle Association — not unlike what she did on behalf of Altai officials at Seliger. She also admitted to working at the behest of her ex-employer, former Senator Torshin, to create back-channel communications between NRA contacts and Russian officials.

“She was playing a role familiar to professional intelligence officers…using her natural network of contacts to spot, meet, and assess potential targets for the Russian espionage apparatus,” writes Atlantic Monthly contributor John Sipher, a 28-year veteran of the CIA’s clandestine service and an authority on espionage at the Brookings Institution.

Describing modern Russia as “the world’s first intelligence state” and Putin’s actions as “those of a superpowered spy chief,” any Russian national living abroad — especially politically connected former State Duma aides such as Butina — can be tapped to act informally as the “overt face of covert operations.”

Ambitious young professionals who wish to maintain professional options at home, said longtime Russian affairs reporter Danila Galperovich, often have little choice but to accommodate the intelligence inquiries, which, for many, inevitably blurs boundaries between networking, lobbying and espionage.

“Can they be approached at any time? Yeah, absolutely, the same way, if we’re perfectly honest, a congressional aide in Washington can be approached by the CIA,” said Mark Galeotti, a globally renowned expert on Russian intelligence.

“But is there any evidence of her being a spy in the sense of someone who actually works for the Russian intelligence apparatus? For me, the answer is absolutely not,” said Galeotti. “I think what this all simply reflects is the way modern Russia works. That you have all kinds of different individuals and agencies who are pushing their own agendas, but also with an eye on whether their actions are likely to fit the kind of interests that we think the Kremlin has. Because, if you can pull off something that is a value to the Kremlin, then you will be rewarded.”

As Galeotti tells it, Russia’s president sets broad policy directives, “and then all these scurrying little entrepreneurs will use whatever leverage or interest they themselves have — and it may be totally different if you’re an ambassador compared to if you’re a journalist compared to if you’re whatever else” — to further those Kremlin interests.

“If they fail? Well, the Kremlin’s no worse off; it can deny anything and it hasn’t spent a penny,” he said. “But if they succeed, then sometimes the Kremlin will actually reach in and, in effect, takeover an operation, or simply reward them for a job well done.”

Calling Butina “ambitious in a perfectly normal way,” Galeotti said her long history of advocating gun rights made the NRA a logical place to network.

“She has a personal and passionate commitment to this issue of the right to bear arms, and therefore she obviously wants to have connections, she wants to have some sense of meaning,” he said. “Because of the extent to which the NRA and the Republican Party are incestuously intertwined, you can’t really network in one without the other.

For Galeotti, the best way to detect the presence of formal intelligence directives is by identifying a given suspect’s behavioral anomalies.

“Look at friendships pursued that, otherwise, just don’t seem to make sense or seem to fit a pattern,” he said. “Quite frankly, if one looks at what Butina was doing, it all seems pretty consistent with someone who’s just trying to see where she can get, see what she can do.”

Galeotti also said that former Senator Torshin, who declined multiple phone and email requests for interview, has long operated in this gray area between personal ambition and political favor.

“If you operate in Russia, you know this,” said Galeotti. “Everyone is constantly looking for what kind of blat, what kind of connections, what kind of leverage they can find. That’s just the nature of this environment.”

However, Yuri Shvets, a former KGB major who worked in the Washington office of the Soviet First Chief Directorate, the intelligence organization responsible for foreign operations, said the NRA has been a target of Soviet infiltration since at least the 1980s.

“She is certainly an ‘agent’ [of the Russian government], whether an active duty one or just an ‘agent of influence’ that I don’t know,” added Shvets, who defected to the West in the early 1990s. “But after the Anna Chapman story, I wouldn’t be surprised by anything.”

In June, American prosecutors said Butina possessed materials indicating direct communication with a Russian intelligence service, although a December Department of Justice affidavit summarizing charges against Butina cites none.

American parallels

Driving to the Butin family home, Valeriy’s gray late-model Nissan shoots down a snowy stretch of canopied coniferous byway about 32 kilometers west of Barnaul. I tell him that I can see why Solzhenitsyn chose voluntary exile in the U.S. state of Vermont, and that the surrounding pines could pass for a postcard from there.

“I’ve heard it’s lovely,” he said. “But we’ve got more bears.”

Does the lifelong hunter advocate the pistol legalization his daughter championed?

“I’m not as political as my daughter is,” he said after some hesitation. “But I think it’s important that one should at least have the right, if only for personal protection.

“Look at this guy in Kerch,” he said, referring to an October shooting at a polytechnic college in Russian-occupied Crimea that claimed 20 victims.

“This young man bought a gun absolutely legally and goes on rampage, but nobody could do anything because of gun restrictions. What if just one other person there had had a gun?

“Guns are deadly, but someone could be attacked with a frying pan or beaten to death by fists. To me legalization just means you can have an opportunity to protect yourself against these insane people, and they’re everywhere. They’re here and in America, too.”

As the road crests, we bear left down a snow-rutted unpaved access lane leading into a sprawling warren of scattered structures that betray a range of income levels. Some homes are new, some are old or restored, and a handful were abandoned mid-construction, the skeletal rebar-and-cement casualties of Russia’s chronic boom-and-bust economic cycles.

Waiting for Maria

Entering the Butin family drive, an automated steel gate slides open, revealing a low-slung structure all but buried in snow. On setting foot in the entryway, Maria’s younger sister, Marina, crosses the house to greet us and insists on taking our coats.

“You’re from Washington,” she sighs in almost unaccented English. “Such a cool city.”

Placing an arm around a sprightly older woman who emerges from the kitchen, Marina introduces her grandmother.

“This is the American?” she asks Marina, who nods.

“Welcome,” says the older woman, offering a hand and holding tight with a lengthy penetrating stare.”I’ll put on some tea.”

Arrayed on a table are family albums that chronicle the achievements of each Butin child. The photos and clippings show just how much academic engagement and school-based events were an organizing principle in the Butin household, which, until Maria left for university, had been located within a half-block of a primary school.

At only 24, Maria’s younger sister holds multiple degrees from one of Russia’s elite polytechnic universities in St. Petersburg, where she has since joined an electronics manufacturing firm.

Like both of her parents, she is an engineer. Also like both of her parents, she learned of Maria’s incarceration via news reports.

“I was in the car, going to work and I didn’t know what had happened,” says Marina, who says she spoke with her older sister at least once weekly until the arrest.

“I was confused and then heard her name and just pulled over and fell silent,” she recalls. “I thought it was fake news, and then I thought maybe after two days everything would be okay, that this was all a big misunderstanding.”

Since hearing the news on television that same morning, Valeriy says his impression of the accusations is unchanged.

“I can only imagine it must have been Maria’s legal ignorance about the details of these [lobbying] laws that her absolutely friendly activities resulted in such an accusation,” he says, insisting that his daughter was fond of the United States and wanted to see relations improved.”Maria couldn’t possibly wish any harm to the country where she was studying, that she treats with great respect.”

Maria’s mother, Irina, says Maria had often spoken taking “part in some global decisions that are being undertaken for (her) country and to be a public figure.”

“Masha did these things without any deliberate intentions,” she says. “I am confident that any illegal activity resulted from her legal ignorance, her young years, her drive, persistence, and of course some naïveté.”

Although the U.S. indictment refutes that opinion, the family remains hopeful that their daughter will be deported immediately after her mid-February hearing, and that U.S.-Russian ties can be salvaged.

“Our two countries are simply obliged to exist peacefully, at a minimum,” says Valeriy. “But even better, we can have absolutely friendly, good relations.”

Asked what he would say directly to President Donald Trump and other top U.S. officials, Valeriy appeared to have tears welling in his eyes.

“It is difficult to say what one could say to the U.S. president, as well as to the Secretary of State,” he says. “But if something will depend on them, I would ask them to release her as soon as possible.”

Asked if Russian officials have been adequately supportive, he exhales in mild exasperation. Although Russian officials have amplified the case via state-media news interviews, the family says they remain dependent upon crowdfunding to deal with more than $500,000 in legal fees.

Characteristically polite, Valeriy asks us to convey a message to Maria’s defense lawyers.

“I am tremendously grateful for their diligence and impartiality, their faith in the fact that Maria should not be punished,” he said before drawing a parallel to a positive memory from the Cold War.

“There was a situation between our countries, quite a tough one dating back to the presidency of Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Yuri Andropov,” he says. “A young American girl named Samantha Smith wrote a letter to Andropov in very human and straightforward tone that ultimately fostered a kind of détente in Cold War tensions. It seems to me there is now some similarity to that situation.”

Regardless of whether her upcoming court ruling can help mend relations, Maria’s younger sister sees the good that is resulting from her sister’s incarceration.

“I want her to stand firm and know that, despite the conditions of solitary confinement, the large distance separating us, she is actually the one keeping us all in the right mind set,” she says. “She reminds us that everything will be tackled, that everything will be okay, that truth and justice will prevail.”

“These are the basics we laid from childhood,” says Irina, calling their family bonds the “thread” to which her daughter holds tight in a Virginia jail.

Even for professor Emeshin, the weighty darkness of a naïve, high-energy extrovert stuck in solitary confinement may yet have one silver lining.

“She is unusually talented, an incredibly clever girl, you can’t deny that,” he said earlier that day. “That’s why she chose the path of public life, why she took charge of the school’s information center, joined our public chamber and quickly leaped to federal-level work.”

For better or worse, he said, she’s found herself in the high-profile international role she always sought.

“Quite a complicated one, yes, but still a real experience,” he said. “She’s now well-known and, like any decent and honest person from this country, she’ll come to occupy a worthy spot in Russia’s political sphere.”

Olga Pavlova in Moscow, Ricardo Marquina in Barnaul, Igor Tsikhanenka in Washington contributed to this report.

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Europe’s Right-Wing Populists Unite, but Face Rivalry on the Street

From Sweden to southern Spain, and the Netherlands to Hungary, populist forces have gained seats in recent elections and they now see a chance at power in Brussels itself.

Europe is gearing up for EU parliament elections in May, a vote where the balance of power could shift decisively.

The campaigns are getting under way amid the fevered atmosphere of street protests in France and many other EU states, alongside growing brinkmanship in the negotiations on Britain’s imminent withdrawal from the bloc.

The 751 members of the European Parliament (or MEPs) are directly elected every five years, and they form the legislative body of the bloc which has the power to pass EU laws and approve the appointment of EU commissioners.

Populist forces, backed by the power of street protests, look set to make the coming vote unlike any other in the bloc’s history, according to analyst Michael Cottakis of the London School of Economics. He is also director of the ’89 Initiative,’ which seeks to engage younger generations in European decision-making.

“It’s an opportunity to hit the piñata when the establishment presents it to you and get your policy opinions across,” Cottakis told VOA. “Generally we’ve seen that the European elections have been a sort of locus in which angry, disaffected citizens essentially voice their concerns – the height of a delayed populist political backlash against a long period of economic hardship.”

In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen is seeking to align her National Rally party with the yellow vest protesters.

Coordinated May assault

Across Europe, populist forces are attempting a coordinated assault on the May elections. Italy’s far-right interior minister recently weighed in on the French protests, posting a video on social media in which he said he hoped “that the French can free themselves from a terrible president, and the opportunity will come on May 26.”

The minister, Matteo Salvini, is trying to form alliances with governments in Hungary and Poland. Their common foe is immigration — but there are major contradictions, says analyst Luigi Scazzieri of the Center for European Reform.

“With Italy wanting other countries to take migrants but Hungary, for example, having absolutely no intention of doing so. So the real question is, will they be able to work together to form an effective group?'”

That’s unlikely, says Michael Cottakis, citing other significant policy differences among Europe’s populist governments.

“Italy is a member of the eurozone, Poland is not. And then in terms of foreign policy, very importantly, Poland is a great believer in the NATO alliance, terrified of Russia, greatly mistrusting of Vladimir Putin; whereas Salvini has openly expressed support.”

Street fights back

Political battle lines are being drawn, colors nailed to the mast. Several hundred self-styled red scarf’ protesters staged counter-demonstrations in Paris Sunday, waving EU flags and voicing support for pro-EU President Emmanuel Macron of France.

In Hungary, the EU flag has been at the forefront of growing anti-government demonstrations. In Germany meanwhile, the Green party has overtaken the far right Alternative for Germany’ party in the polls.

Populists are fast discovering they do not have a monopoly on the street. The real test of strength will come at the ballot box on May 26, a vote that could change the balance of power in Europe.

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Palestinians Say Israel Removing Witnesses by Ejecting Hebron Monitors

Palestinians in Hebron accused Israel on Tuesday of trying to rid the flashpoint city of witnesses to its actions in the occupied West Bank by ejecting a foreign observer force that helps safeguard residents.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that he will not renew the mandate of the Temporary International Presence in Hebron (TIPH), accusing the observers of unspecified anti-Israel activity.

Norway, which has headed the multi-country observer mission for the past 22 years, said “the one-sided Israeli decision can mean that the implementation of an important part of the Oslo accords is discontinued.”

“The situation in Hebron is unstable and characterized by conflict,” Foreign Minister Ine Eriksen Soereide said in a statement to Reuters, adding that the end of the observer mission was therefore “worrying.”

​Hebron, a Palestinian city of 200,000 people, is home to a community of around 1,000 Israeli settlers who are heavily guarded by a large Israeli military presence.

The TIPH was set up after a Jewish settler killed 29 Palestinians at a Hebron shrine holy to both Muslims and Jews in 1994. The city has also seen stabbing and shooting attacks against settlers and Israeli soldiers by Palestinians.

Since Israel partially withdrew from Hebron in 1998 under interim peace deals with the self-rule Palestinian Authority, the TIPH has monitored “breaches of the agreements (and) violations of international humanitarian law and international human rights law,” the force’s website says.

“The settlers’ attacks will increase,” said Aref Jaber, a Palestinian resident of Hebron. TIPH’s presence was particularly helpful to schoolchildren, he added, because they patrol the city “in the morning and the afternoon, when they go to and return from school.”

U.N. reaction

The United Nations said it regretted Israel’s decision.

“While the TIPH is not a United Nations body its role in contributing positively to defusing tensions in such a sensitive area has been widely recognized,” U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.

TIPH draws staff from Norway, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland and Turkey. The TIPH website says it has 64 international staff in the city. An Israeli official said its mandate ends on Jan. 31.

“[It] is our window to the world. They can show the Israeli occupation’s ugly face — which is definitely annoying to the Israelis,” said Bader Daour, a ceramics merchant in Hebron’s old city.

‘Atmosphere of conflict’

Settler leaders welcomed news of the force’s upcoming departure. They have accused the TIPH of harassing settlers and agitating against them.

Yishai Fleisher, a spokesman for the Hebron Jewish community, said the TIPH observers “created an atmosphere of conflict, not a congenial atmosphere of peace.”

Jews and Palestinians, he said, have inhabited the city for centuries: “We know each other and I’m sure we’ll find a way to get along without Norwegian help,” Fleisher said.

Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Tzipi Hotovely said in November that the TIPH were pro-Palestinian, “ignore Palestinian terrorism and harm IDF [Israel Defense Forces] soldiers by documenting their daily security activity.”

Peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinians collapsed in 2014. Most world powers consider Israel’s settlements in the West Bank, territory captured by Israel in a 1967 war, to be illegal. Israel disputes this, citing biblical, historical and political ties to the land.

“[The Israelis] don’t want there to be witnesses to their crimes, or any other crime they commit against the Palestinians anywhere, and especially in Hebron,” said the city’s mayor of Tayseer Abu Sinaneh.

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Study: Climate Change Linked to ‘Arab Spring’ Mass Migration

For the first time, scientists have linked climate change to the mass migration flows that followed the Arab Spring in North Africa and the Middle East a few years ago.

According to scientists from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, water shortages and droughts contributed to the Arab Spring conflicts, particularly in Syria, which remains mired in a civil war.

“People started not being able to produce agricultural production, and that was the start of migration from the rural areas to urban areas, which were already quite crowded. And the resources in the urban areas were also scarce. So with that kind of tension, fighting for limited resources, and on top is the ethnic polarization in Syria. So, it’s sort of all that combination,” said Raya Muttarak, of the University of East Anglia in Britain. She co-authored a report on the subject.

The researchers used United Nations’ data on asylum applications and conflict-related deaths. They combined this with data on drought and rainfall, plus other variables like population size and measures of democracy and ethnic diversity. All the figures were combined in a mathematical model. 

“So, let’s look at how climate affects the probability of conflict. And once we estimate that we use the number that we got from that to estimate the next step. So, the countries that experience conflict from climate variation — are they likely to send out the refugee flows or not?” explained Muttarak.

She said that climate change would not cause conflict and subsequent asylum-seeking flows everywhere.

“The effect of climate on migration, through conflict, is quite specific to certain time periods and to certain countries. So, climate-induced conflict, it’s a bit more likely in a country with a medium level of democracy.”

The results of this study are specific to the western Asia region. However, researchers say they hope the study will contribute to the global debate on how migration flows will be affected by increasingly severe climate change.

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Italy PM Says 5 Nations Offer Help to End Migrant Boat Stand-off

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said on Tuesday five countries had come forward with offers to help end the stand-off over a rescue boat moored off Sicily with 47 migrants on board.

The Sea Watch 3, run by a German humanitarian group, rescued the migrants from a rubber boat off the Libyan coast more than a week ago but Italy, which has closed its ports to charity ships, has refused to allow them ashore to request asylum.

“I want to thank the friendly countries that have in the last few hours said they are willing to find a shared solution,” Conte told reporters in the Cypriot capital Nicosia.

He named the countries as Germany, France, Portugal, Malta and Romania. Similar stand-offs in the past have ended with several EU countries offering to each take in a share of migrants stranded on rescue boats.

‘European framework’

French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking alongside Conte at a meeting of southern European countries, called for the ship to dock in the nearest safest harbor as quickly as possible, a clear reference to Italy, and for the migrants to then be shared out.

“France has always done it in a European framework. We are ready for it and I want to make it very clear this evening for this ship, and I want it to be very clear for all our Italian friends”, he said.

However, Conte said he had not given instructions for the migrants to be brought ashore in Sicily. He said that for now his government was ensuring they were looked after properly on the boat.

Second standoff 

The current situation is the second time in a month that Sea Watch 3, which flies a Dutch flag, has been stranded at sea with rescued migrants and no safe port.

The last standoff ended after 19 days with the migrants allowed ashore in Malta and an agreement among eight EU countries, including Italy, to subsequently take them in.

Italy allowed rescue ships to dock regularly until June of last year, when the new government of the right-wing League and the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement took office and cracked down on migrant arrivals, in line with the election promises of League leader Matteo Salvini.

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UN Finds at Least 15 Mass Graves in Congo After December Violence

At least 15 mass graves have been found in northwestern Democratic Republic of Congo in the wake of three days of ethnic bloodshed in December, a spokeswoman for the U.N.’s MONUSCO mission in Congo said Tuesday.

Earlier in January, the United Nations estimated that at least 890 people were killed as a result of the violence, some of the worst in the area for years which highlighted the precarious state of inter-ethnic relations even in the Central African country’s more peaceful regions.

A MONUSCO special mission looking into the circumstances of the fighting found at least 11 mass graves and 43 individual graves around the town of Yumbi and at least four communal graves containing at least 170 bodies in nearby Bongende, spokeswoman Florence Marchal said.

“While the conclusions of this mission are still being finalized, we are able to confirm that several hundred people including women and many children were killed in unbearable circumstances,” she said.

“The speed, the modus operandi and the high death toll of this violence suggest that these events were planned and premeditated,” she said.

A dispute linked to a tribal chief’s burial is seen as a catalyst for the fighting between the Banunu and Batende communities. It led the government to cancel voting in the area for last month’s presidential election.

While the bloodshed was not directly related to the Dec. 30 vote, a local activist told Reuters at the time that tensions between the two ethnic groups had festered because Batende leaders were supporting the ruling coalition while Banunu leaders backed opposition candidates.

Marchal said the area was now relatively calm, but warned: “Tensions between the two communities are still very evident and are at risk of worsening.”

Safeguarding Congo’s fragile security situation will be one of the key tasks for President Felix Tshisekedi, who was sworn in Jan. 24 in Congo’s first transfer of power via an election in 59 years of independence.

The country remains deeply unstable years after the official end of the 1998-2003 regional war in the eastern borderlands with Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi that led to millions of deaths, mostly from hunger and disease. Dozens of militia continue to ravage those areas.

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Kenyan Court Says Four Suspects to Stand Trial in 2015 University Attack

A court in Kenya says four men must stand trial for their alleged role in the 2015 terrorist attack on Garissa University College in the northeastern part of the country. The suspects are accused of belonging to a terror group and committing a terror act.

The suspects were in court Tuesday as Chief Magistrate Francis Andayi read the ruling.

 

“I have considered the evidence by the prosecution and submission by learned council, and my findings are that the prosecution has made it out of the prima facie case to warrant the court to call upon the first, the second, the third and the fifth accused persons to offer a defense on respective counts they are charged with, other than the fifth accused person on the 156th count,” he said.

 

The suspects, Charles Mberesero, Mohamed Ali Abdikar, Hassan Aden Hassan and Sahal Diriye are charged in connection with the April 2, 2015, dawn attack in which more than 150 people, most of them students, were killed. The court acquitted Osman Dagane, a university guard, saying there was no evidence linking him to the attack.

Witnesses say the assailants followed the students to the classes and dormitories before killing them. The armed men were killed after security forces retook the institution. The four suspects were arrested a few weeks later.

Twenty-five year-old university graduate Steve Mwangi survived the assault, which Somali militant group al-Shabab claimed responsibility. Mwangi said he was pleased with the court decision.

“I am feeling happy. I am feeling good. At least some people will be punished for the crimes that were committed. Before, we have not seen anybody being punished. Now, at least I feel good some people will be punished,” he said.

Mwangi lost his sister, who was also a student. Mwangi says every year, he dreads the anniversary of the attack.

“When [the] 2nd [of] April comes, you just wish it would be over soon. We stop all these reminders we see on TV and social media. I just pray that when a day like that comes, I just pray it ends soon,” he said.

Prosecutors so far have testimony from 22 witnesses.

The defendants are expected in court again on February 13.

The town of Garissa is about 200 kilometers from the border with Somalia and has, in recent years, been the site of sporadic gun and grenade attacks blamed on al-Shabab. The group has targeted Kenya in retribution for Kenya sending troops to Somalia.

 

 

 

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UN Seeks Nearly $1 Billion to Assist Displaced in Nigeria

The United Nations is launching a three-year Humanitarian Response Strategy together with the Nigeria Regional Refugee Response Plan. The $983 million appeal will assist millions of victims of Boko Haram attacks in northeastern Nigeria and hundreds of thousands of refugees who fled to neighboring countries.

The bulk of the appeal, $848 million, will assist 6.2 million vulnerable people in Nigeria’s north-eastern Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states.They have been the hardest hit by the decade-long crisis between Boko Haram and Nigeria’s government forces.

Boko Haram, which wants to set up its own Islamic State based on Shariah law, reportedly has killed more than 20,000 people and forced more than two million to flee their homes since the insurgency began in 2009.

Spokesman for the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Jens Laerke, says a recent upsurge in violence has displaced more than 80,000 civilians who have sought refuge in crowded camps or in towns in Borno State.

“In total,” added Laerke, “1.8 million people are internally displaced in the northeast due to this protracted crisis which is characterized by massive abuses against civilians including killings, rape, abduction, child recruitment and burning and pillaging of homes and entire villages.”

Food aid accounts for nearly one third of the appeal.Money also will be used to provide special treatment for some 370,000 severely, acutely malnourished children, for nutrition, health, water and sanitation projects among others.

The U.N. refugee agency and U.N. Development Program are launching Nigeria’s Refugee Response Plan.The agencies are appealing for $135 million to assist more than one-quarter million Nigerian refugees displaced by the worsening Boko Haram insurgency in the Lake Chad Basin region.

The appeal will assist Nigerian refugees in Cameroon, Chad and Niger.Beyond supporting those forced to flee, money also will help the communities hosting the refugees as they themselves are living below the poverty line and are in dire need of aid.

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Iran’s Cyber Spies Looking to Get Personal

Iran appears to be broadening its presence in cyberspace, stealing information that would allow its cyber spies to monitor and track key political and business officials.

As part of this growing focus, Iranian-linked cyber actors are using phishing emails and stolen credentials to infiltrate telecommunication companies and the travel industry in order to steal personally identifiable information they can use in future operations.

The main culprit, according to a report released Tuesday by cybersecurity firm FireEye, is a group known as Advanced Persistent Threat 39, or APT 39. Active since 2014, FireEye maintains the group has been working “in support of Iranian national interests,” showing an ability to hits targets across the Middle East and beyond.

“APT 39’s focus on the widespread theft of personal information sets it apart from other Iranian groups,” the report said, warning the activity “showcases Iran’s potential global operational reach.”

“They are targeting a number of telecommunication and information technology entities and really going after just large amounts of PII [personally identifiable information],” said FireEye Senior Analyst Cristiana Kittner.

“Once in the network, they’re looking at phone logs and employee records and airline records,” she added. “Our assessment is that the PII is being stolen both for general surveillance as well as for specific targets, including high profile people and potentially political individuals and those that have significant roles in strategic affairs related to the country.”

Kittner said APT 39 has even gone after visa and passport information, searching through keystroke logs to try to get what it wants.

And while most of the companies that have been targeted by APT 39 are in the Middle East — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates – the group’s pursuit of telecommunications and travel industry data have led it further afield. Companies in Norway, South Korea, Australia and the United States may also have been affected.

The report from FireEye follows similar warnings from other cybersecurity firms, which have increasingly voiced concern about Iranian-linked cyber actors targeting the telecommunications and travel sectors. And there is likely to be debate over just how new APT39 may be.

Much of APT 39’s activity aligns with that of the Iranian-based cyber group known as Chafer, which was identified by the cybersecurity firm Symantec in 2015, and which has also focused on the telecommunications, travel and IT industries.

“Chafer has become notably more ambitious,” Symantec told VOA in a statement. “Over the past two years, the group moved their attacks up the supply chain in the industries they typically target, and these supply chain attacks may allow Chafer to reach a broader set of victims in each industry they target.”

Other experts and analysts worry advances by APT 39 and Chafer show that Tehran, already a formidable actor in cyberspace, has further refined its cyber espionage doctrine and will soon find more ways to use cyber spying to gain an advantage, economically and politically.

“Iran’s leveraging these capabilities in order to identify suppliers…where they’re shipping certain things to,” said David Kennedy, the chief executive officer at the IT security consulting firm TrustedSec. “They may have the ability to snag individuals or pick them up.”

“The methods that they use are very effective for going against a lot of different companies,” added Kennedy, who previously served with the U.S. National Security Agency and with the Marine Corps electronic warfare unit.

European officials, meanwhile, worry that this is just the start, and that Iranian cyber actors are only going to get more ambitious as the U.S. and Western powers increase pressure on Tehran in response to its missile tests and nuclear activity.

“Newly imposed sanctions on Iran are likely to push the country to intensify state-sponsored cyberthreat activities in pursuit of its geopolitical and strategic objectives at a regional level,” the European digital security agency warned in a report Monday.

U.S. officials have also warned of Iran’s growing prowess in cyberspace.

This past November, the U.S. indicted two Iranian hackers for using the SamSam ransomware to extort millions of dollars from U.S. municipalities, hospitals and other public institutions.

And in march of last year, U.S. prosecutors charged nine Iranian hackers with penetrating the computer networks of hundreds of universities and institutions to steal research material.

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US Drops in Global Anti-Corruption Index

A global anti-corruption watchdog says the United States has dropped four spots in its list of nations’ anti-corruption efforts and is now no longer listed in the top 20 for the first time.

Acting U.S. Representative at Transparency International, Zoe Reiter, calls a four point drop in the 2018 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) a “red flag.”

She says it comes at a time when the U.S. is experiencing “threats to its system of checks and balances” and an “erosion of ethical norms at the highest levels of power.”

“If this trend continues, it would indicate a serious corruption problem in a country that has taken a lead on the issue globally,” Reiter says.

The United States scored a 71 in the perceptions index after scoring 75 the previous year.

“The expert opinion captured by the CPI supports the deep concern over corruption in government reported by America in our 2017 survey. Both experts and the public believe the situation is getting worse,” Reiter said.

Transparency International uses several criteria for measuring how well a country is fighting corruption, including checks and balances on political power, controls on conflicts of interest and private influence on government, and voter suppression.

For the 2018 index, 180 countries were surveyed. Denmark and New Zealand topped the list while Somalia, Syria, and South Sudan were at the bottom.

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Analysts See Many Obstacles to Peace in Afghanistan

U.S. and Taliban negotiators say they have agreed on a draft framework for a peace deal aimed at ending 17 years of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan’s conflict. The framework was hammered during six days of talks last week in Qatar. Analysts say there are many obstacles on the road to a sustainable peace deal for Afghanistan. VOA’s Zlatica Hoke reports.

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US Announces Sanctions on Venezuela’s State-Owned Oil Company

The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PdVSA, in an increased effort to pressure Nicolás Maduro to relinquish power to Juan Guaidó, now recognized by the U.S. and a number of other nations as the country’s legitimate president. VOA’s diplomatic correspondent Cindy Saine reports from the State Department.

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At Baghdad Workshop, Search for Iraq’s Looted Artifacts Gets Serious

Before Islamic State militants were dislodged from Iraq in 2017, they stole thousands of ancient artifacts. Most are still missing, and an international team of archaeologists is turning detective to recover as many as possible.

In 2014 and 2015, during its occupation of most of the country, the jihadist group raided and wrecked historical sites on what UNESCO called an “industrial” scale, using the loot to fund its operations through a smuggling network extending through the Middle East and beyond.

“We’re trying to recover a lot of artifacts and need all local and international resources to work. Iraq cannot do this on its own,” said Bruno Deslandes, a conservation architect at the U.N. cultural agency.

He spoke at a workshop at Baghdad’s National Museum convened to coordinate international retrieval efforts.

Video that went viral after it was released by Islamic State in 2014 showed militants using bulldozers and drills to tear down murals and statues the 3,000-year-old Assyrian site of Nimrud near Mosul. What they did not destroy they smuggled and traded.

Deslandes was the first international expert to access the site in early 2017 while Islamic State was still being driven out.

With the battle raging just kilometers away, he and his team had to work quickly to assess damage to the site, using 3D scanning and satellite imagery. Within minutes, they gathered a trove of data he says will be critical in tracking lost items down.

“When an artifact has been taken, we can document the footprint left,” Deslandes said.

“We document this very precisely… so we can recover it… When we have an artifact in Europe or somewhere matching this specification we can… yes!” he added, clapping his hands together for emphasis.

‘Tip of the Iceberg’

The workshop, which brought together Iraqi and foreign police, customs officials and archeological experts, was the second in two years organized by the European Union Advisory Mission in Iraq.

Law enforcement officials said they can help Iraqi police track down the objects using databases of seizures and other information, including smuggling routes.

Mariya Polner of the World Customs Organization (WCO) said reports of cultural heritage seizures by customs officials worldwide were “only the tip of the iceberg,” and that better coordination between the WCO’s 183 members states had helped increase recoveries.

In 2017, the WCO said customs officers recovered more than 14,000 items looted worldwide including antiquities, paintings and statues, 48 percent up from the previous year.

Eckhard Laufer, a participating police officer from Germany, said many private collectors and some museums often did not question the provenance of artifacts. “It is one of the biggest problems in crime.”

Deslandes said sites inside Iraq were still at risk. “When a site is liberated, it doesn’t mean the looting has finished.”

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Britain-based Transport Union Urges Iran to Free Detained Labor Activists

A major international labor union has called on Iran to immediately release several labor activists whom it says appear to have been tortured in custody late last year.

The London-based International Transport Workers’ Federation made the appeal in a letter addressed to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, shared with VOA Persian on Monday.

In the letter dated Jan. 25, ITF General Secretary Stephen Cotton said there was “credible evidence” that confessions by several labor activists in a recently-broadcasted state television program were obtained through threats, beatings and torture.

“Such violations of basic human rights must cease immediately,” Cotton wrote to Rouhani. “I call on you both to stop such torture, and to immediately release these detainees.”

There was no public response from Rouhani to the letter by late Monday. ITF represents 20 million workers in 140 countries.

The state TV documentary Tarahi Soukhteh (A Burnt Plot), broadcast Jan. 19, accused labor activists involved in recent protests at the Haft Tapeh sugar cane plantation in southwestern Iran of having ties to the United States, Israel and an exiled Iranian Marxist group. The program included confessions by activists Esmail Bakhshi and Sepideh Gholian, who were arrested Nov. 18 for joining Haft Tapeh workers in daily peaceful protests that began Nov. 5 in the town of Shush.

The striking workers had been demanding months of unpaid wages and the removal of private owners, whom they accuse of mismanaging and abandoning the sugar cane complex, founded in the 1950s.

After being released on bail in mid-December, Bakhshi and Gholian declared they had been beaten during their several weeks in detention, a period in which their televised confessions were recorded. Bakhshi made the accusation in a Jan. 4 Instagram post and Gholian backed him up in a Jan. 9 Twitter message saying she had seen him being beaten. In a video broadcast Jan. 21 by BBC Persian, Gholian said she also had been beaten. Authorities re-arrested both activists Jan. 20.

Iranian officials have denied the torture allegations. Speaking to reporters Jan. 14, Iranian prosecutor general Hojatoleslam Montazeri accused Bakhshi of “pursuing political goals.”

In a Jan. 24 statement, New York-based group Human Rights Watch said Iran’s broadcast of what it termed “forced confessions” by Bakhshi and Gholian “only raises more concerns about torture and mistreatment” of activists in Iranian detention.

The Iranian state TV program also accused the Syndicate of Workers of Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company (SWTSBC) of being part of a plot behind the recent Haft Tapeh strike. In his letter to Rouhani, ITF leader Cotton said the accusation is incorrect and expressed “extreme concern” for all members of SWTSBC, also known as the Vahed Syndicate.

“We urge you to make immediate assurances as to their ongoing liberty and safety and look forward to receiving said assurances from you,” Cotton wrote.

SWTSBC has expressed solidarity with Iranians protesting poor labor conditions in various industries around the country in the past, including the workers at the Haft Tapeh plantation.

This article originated in VOA’s Persian Service.

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Nigeria Adjourns Trial of Top Judge Suspended by President

A legal case against Nigeria’s top judge which raised fears of interference in next month’s presidential election was adjourned indefinitely on Monday, days after President Muhammadu Buhari suspended the chief justice.

The European Union and the United States voiced concerns after Buhari suspended Walter Onnoghen from the position where he would have a key say in resolving any disputes after the Feb. 16 election.

“This case has been adjourned sine die (indefinitely), pending the determination of the matter at the court of appeal,” Danladi Umar, chairman of the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) said. 

The next court of appeal hearing is due to take place on Jan. 30.

Protestors gathered outside the courthouse in the capital, Abuja — some in support of Onnoghen and others who backed his suspension. A replacement judge, Tanko Mohammed, was sworn in on Friday to take his place.

Lawyers’ body, the Nigerian Bar Association, said it would boycott the courts for two days from Jan. 29 to protest the suspension. 

The Code of Conduct Tribunal said on Jan. 12 that Onnoghen would face six counts of alleged non-declaration of assets. The allegations were initially made by Dennis Aghanya, who served as Buhari’s media aide between 2009 and 2011.

Onnoghen’s lawyers said the tribunal did not have the authority to try him, and an appeal court ordered last week that the trial be halted while it ruled on that.

On Monday, the senate brought a case against the government at the supreme court to rule whether the president had acted within the law in suspending the chief justice or whether he had usurped parliament’s powers.

Buhari said on Friday his decision to suspend Onnoghen for the duration of the CCT trial was based on an order to do so from the tribunal dated Jan. 23 — the day before the court of appeal halted the proceedings.

The charges are yet to be disclosed.

The president, in a series of tweets, said security agencies had traced “suspicious transactions running into millions of dollars to the CJN’s (Chief Justice of Nigeria’s) personal  accounts, all undeclared or improperly declared as required by law.”

Onnoghen could not be reached to comment.

It is not the first time such claims have been leveled at the judiciary since Buhari, a former military ruler who vowed to crack down on corruption, took office in 2015.

The Department of State Services, Nigeria’s security agency, in 2016 said it seized $800,000 in cash during raids on judges from the supreme, appeal and high courts. Senior judges were arrested and released. None were convicted.

 Nigeria’s judiciary has long been the subject of corruption allegations amid claims that judges routinely accept bribes.

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Cameroon’s Main Opposition Leader Kamto Arrested for Protest

Cameroonian authorities arrested opposition leader Maurice Kamto on Monday, his lawyer said, after weekend protests that security forces dispersed with live bullets, wounding six people.

Kamto has been mobilizing dissent against President Paul Biya since losing what he says was a fraudulent election in October. Kamto declared himself winner at the time of the poll and has since challenged Biya’s win in the African Union court.

Protests are rare in Cameroon, outside its troubled Anglophone western region, and tend to be swiftly put down by force and mass arrests.

“I can confirm that professor Maurice Kamto was arrested [today],” his lawyer, Agbor Bala, told Reuters by telephone, adding that it was because of the weekend protests in which dozens took part. The treasurer of his Cameroon Renaissance Movement party, Alain Fogue, was also detained, Bala said.

At 85, Biya is the oldest leader in sub-Saharan Africa and most Cameroonians have known only him as president. He holds Cabinet meetings only every few years and spends a lot of his time on private trips to Switzerland. But the opposition has been unable to mount a credible challenge to him.

The election cemented his place as one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders, but allegations of ballot stuffing and intimidation loomed over his victory, and turnout was low because of a secessionist uprising in the Anglophone regions in which hundreds have died.

Biya’s camp has denied all allegations of electoral fraud.

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EU Has Brexit Message for May: Decide What You Want

The European Union has a message for Prime Minister Theresa May as she plots a path out of the Brexit impasse: Britain needs to decide what it really wants but the negotiated divorce deal will not be reopened.

With less than nine weeks until Britain is due by law to leave the European Union on March 29, there is no agreement yet in London on how and even whether to leave the world’s biggest trading bloc.

Parliament defeated May’s deal two weeks ago by a huge margin, with many Brexit-supporting rebels in her Conservative Party angry at the Irish “backstop,” an insurance policy aimed at preventing a hard border in Ireland if no other solutions can be agreed.

Ahead of Tuesday’s votes in the British parliament on a way forward, lawmakers in May’s party are pushing for her to demand the European Union drop the backstop and replace it with something else.

“It is quite a challenge to see how you can construct from a diversity of the opposition a positive majority for the deal,” EU deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand told a Brussels conference organized by the European Policy Center think-tank.

In a note of criticism of May’s strategy, she said there appeared to be a lack of “ownership” in Britain of the agreement struck between the two sides in November, and that there was insufficient transparency in the prime minister’s moves.

“There will be no more negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement,” said Weyand, a German senior civil servant at the European Commission, reiterating the EU stance.

As the Brexit crisis goes down to the line, however, EU officials indicated there might be wriggle room if May came back with a clear, and viable, request for changes that she — and the EU — believe will secure a final ratification.

Wriggle room?

However, Weyand echoed her boss Michel Barnier in saying that Britain could resolve some of the problems caused by opposition to the Irish backstop by changing some of its demands on post-Brexit trade.

Referring to an amendment to May’s proposed next steps on Brexit put forward by senior Conservative lawmaker Graham Brady, who wants “alternative arrangements” to the backstop, Weyand said that the withdrawal treaty already contained that possibility.

“We are open to alternative arrangements” on the Irish border, she said. “The problem with the Brady amendment is that it does not spell out what they are.

“The backstop is not a prerequisite for the future relationship,” she said. “We are open to alternative proposals.”

A source in May’s office said the government would tell Conservative lawmakers to vote in favor of Brady’s amendment if it is selected by the speaker on Tuesday.

Britain remaining in a customs union, or even the EU single market, could help reach a final agreement, Weyand said, adding: “We need decisions on the U.K. side on the direction of travel.”

Weyand said the ratification of the EU-U.K. deal would build the trust necessary to build a new relationship, but ruled out bowing to British calls to set a time limit to the backstop beyond which the insurance policy would lapse.

“A time-limit on the backstop defeats the purpose of the backstop because it means that once the backstop expires you stand there with no solution for this border,” Weyand said.

Impasse 

Speaking to the same conference, a former British envoy to the EU, Ivan Rogers, said he expected the deadlock to persist in the coming weeks, saying it had always seemed likely that the outcome would remain in doubt until much closer to March 29.

Rogers was speaking in a personal capacity, having resigned two years ago after differences with May over the negotiation.

The question for May is whether the EU can offer enough to get a variant of her defeated deal through parliament.

May wants to use a series of votes on Tuesday to find a consensus that lawmakers in her own party could support, just two weeks since her deal suffered the biggest parliamentary defeat in modern British history.

Parliament will vote on proposals made by lawmakers including a delay to Brexit and going back to the EU to demand changes to the Northern Irish backstop.

In essence, May is forcing lawmakers to show their cards on what sort of Brexit, if any, they want. Lawmakers in her own party want her to demand a last-minute change to the withdrawal deal to remove the backstop, which they fear could end up trapping the U.K. in a permanent customs union with the EU.

 

 

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In New Lithium ‘Great Game,’ Germany Edges Out China in Bolivia

When Germany signed a deal last month to help Bolivia exploit its huge lithium reserves, it hailed the venture as a deepening of economic ties with the South American country. But it also gives Germany entry into the new “Great Game,” in which big powers like China are jostling across the globe for access to the prized electric battery metal.

The signing of the deal in Berlin on Dec. 12 capped two years of intense lobbying by Germany as it sought to persuade President Evo Morales’ government that a small German family-run company was a better bet than its Chinese rivals, according to Reuters interviews with German and Bolivian officials.

While the substance of the deal has been reported, how China, Bolivia’s biggest non-institutional lender and close ideological ally, lost out to Germany has not.

China has been quietly cornering the global lithium market, making deals in Asia, Chile and Argentina as it seeks to lock in access to a strategic resource that could power the next energy revolution.

China has invested $4.2 billion in South America in the past two years, surpassing the value of similar deals by Japanese and South Korean companies in the same period. Chinese entities now control nearly half of global lithium production and 60 percent of electric battery production capacity.

German officials told Reuters they championed the bid by ACI Systems GmbH because they saw an opportunity to lower Germany’s reliance on Asian battery makers and help its carmakers catch up with Chinese and U.S. rivals in the race to make electric cars.

The German push included a series of visits by German government officials who talked up the benefits of picking a German company. Bolivian officials also toured German battery factories, Bolivia’s deputy minister of High Energy Technologies, Luis Alberto Echazu, told Reuters.

German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier wrote a letter to Morales, an environmental champion, emphasizing Germany’s commitment to environment protection.

The lobbying effort was capped by a call last April between Altmaier and Morales, Bolivian, German and ACI officials said, without offering details of what was discussed.

German diplomats in La Paz also stressed high-level German government backing for the project, potential loan guarantees and the tantalizing prospect of supply agreements with German automakers, ACI and Bolivian officials told Reuters.

ACI’s win means Germany now has a foothold in the final frontier of South America’s so-called Lithium Triangle: the Uyuni salt flat in Bolivia, one of the world’s largest untapped deposits. The triangle comprises lithium deposits in an area that includes parts of Chile, Argentina and Bolivia.

“This partnership secures lithium supplies for us and breaks the Chinese monopoly,” Wolfgang Tiefensee, economy minister of the German state of Thuringia, an automotive manufacturing hub, told Reuters during a visit to the Bolivian capital La Paz in October.

Some risks

The venture in Bolivia is not without risk for ACI.

While Uyuni boasts at least 21 million tons of lithium, Morales has made nationalizing natural resources a key policy plank. Bolivian officials assured ACI that foreign investments in the Uyuni would be guaranteed should anything go awry, CEO Wolfgang Schmutz said in an interview.

In addition, unlike Chile’s sun-drenched Atacama salt flats, snow and rain slow the evaporation process needed to extract lithium from brine in Uyuni, and the landlocked nation will have to use a port in neighboring Chile or Peru to ship the metal out.

ACI, a family-run clean tech and machinery supplier, has no experience producing lithium. The company dismisses concerns from some lithium analysts about its ability to deliver, saying its small size gives it more flexibility to bring partners from different fields into the project.

Schmutz said the company has preliminary lithium supply deals with major German carmakers, but declined to provide details, citing non-disclosure agreements.

None of Germany’s top three carmakers — BMW, VW or Daimler — confirmed any agreement with ACI when contacted by Reuters.

BMW said it was in preliminary talks with ACI but had made no decision. VW said ensuring supplies and stable prices for raw materials was important, but noted lithium production in Bolivia was particularly demanding. Daimler board member Ola Kaellenius said: “If it’s happening, we’re not part of it.”

ACI said the carmakers that it was in talks with would not be able to confirm anything publicly until final deals were made.

The “Great Game” — lithium version

The global battle for control of lithium has been likened to the “Great Game,” the term coined to describe the struggle between Russia and Britain for influence and territory in Central Asia in the 19th century.

The Bolivian project includes plans to build a lithium hydroxide plant and a factory for producing electric car batteries in Bolivia. Once completed, the factory will help to fulfill Morales’ ambition to break with Bolivia’s historic role as a mere exporter of raw materials.

ACI has said it expects the lithium hydroxide plant to have an annual production capacity of 35,000-40,000 tons by the end of 2022, similar in output to plants operated by the world’s top lithium producers. Eighty percent of that would be exported to Germany.

ACI’s willingness to build a battery plant in Bolivia helped to seal the deal, said Echazu, the deputy minister.

The Chinese did not want to build a battery plant in Bolivia because they felt it made no economic sense to ship in materials to make the batteries only to re-import the final product to China, he said.

China’s embassy in La Paz declined to comment on the Uyuni project, but said the potential for future cooperation with Bolivia on lithium was “huge.”

Bolivia’s state-owned lithium producer YLB will own 51 percent of the new joint venture. Control of the project was another key demand of the Bolivians, who have bitter memories of foreign powers meddling in the former Spanish colony to seize its natural resources.

Juan Carlos Montenegro, the head of YLB, said geopolitics was a factor for Bolivia in deciding which companies to work with.

“We don’t want a single country to set the rules, we want balance and other world powers must help create that balance,” he said. “So for Bolivia, it’s important to have not just economic partners for markets, but geopolitical strategic partners.”

He stressed, however, that Bolivia had not been predisposed against China in deciding who had made the best offer.

“China-Bolivia relations are still good. China is present in every country in the world and impossible to avoid,” he said.

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Zimbabwe Unions Issue New Strike Ultimatum after Wage Talks Deadlock


Public sector unions gave Zimbabwe’s government a 48-hour ultimatum to make a new salary offer or face a strike after wage negotiations reached a deadlock, raising the prospect of more unrest following this month’s violent protests.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa is under pressure to deliver on pre-election promises to revive an economy wrecked during the tenure of his predecessor Robert Mugabe, who ruled for 37 years before being forced to resign after a coup in 2017.

Mnangagwa’s government has also come under severe criticism for a crackdown on violent protests over a fuel price hike that rights groups say killed at least 12 people and injured scores. Police say only three people died.

Apex Council

The Apex Council, which groups 16 civil service unions, said government negotiators did not bring a new offer at a meeting on Monday. More talks are set for Wednesday, Apex Council secretary David Dzatsungwa told reporters after a four-hour meeting.

“The Apex council gives the government up to the meeting of Wednesday 30 January 2019 or face inevitable job action,” said Dzatsungwa.

Unions want to be paid in dollars or have the monthly salary of the lowest paid worker increased from $414 to $1,700. There are 305,000 civil servants, including security forces.

With inflation at 42 percent, its highest since 2008, and a shortage of cash in circulation eroding ordinary Zimbabweans’ spending power, the fragile state of the economy is at the heart of the country’s political troubles.

Mnangagwa promised during campaigning for the July 2018 presidential vote, which he won amid charges of fraud from the opposition, to repair the economy and break with Mugabe’s politics.

Strong-arm politics

But security forces dispersed demonstrations by force and cracked down on activists, leading to fears that Mnangagwa’s government is reverting to Mugabe-era strong-arm politics.

Several opposition officials and activists have gone into hiding and police said on Monday they wanted to question at least 27 of them over the Jan. 14-16 strike that turned into violent street protests.

On Monday, Mnangagwa said he had told authorities to arrest security forces filmed by Sky News assaulting a man in handcuffs. Last week he promised action on security forces who committed violence during the crackdown.

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Greece Plans 11 Percent Minimum Wage Hike

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced on Monday plans to increase the standard minimum monthly wage by about 11 percent, the first such hike since the country’s debt crisis erupted almost a decade ago.

The country emerged in August from its third international bailout since 2010 and the government, which faces a national election this year, has promised to reverse some of the unpopular reforms Greece implemented under bailout supervision.

“I’m calling on you, after a decade of wage cuts, to make another historic step,” Tsipras said, calling on his cabinet to approve the labor ministry’s proposal for an increase to 650 euros from 586 euros currently.

Tsipras, who was elected in 2015 pledging to end austerity but later signed up to Greece’s third bailout, also proposed the abolition of a youth minimum wage for those below 25.

Ministers applauded and a smiling Tsipras responded: “From your reaction I reckon that my proposal is … approved”.

The plan must be approved by parliament in the coming days to take effect next month, as the government hopes.

Athens had told its European lenders that it would reinstate the process of increasing the minimum wage periodically after the end of the bailout.

Greece slashed the standard minimum monthly wage by 22 percent to 586 euros in 2012, when it was mired in recession.

Workers below 25 years suffered deeper wage cut as part of measures prescribed by international lenders to make the labor market more flexible and the economy more competitive.

Greece expects 2.5 percent economic growth this year. “The minimum wage increase marks the beginning of a new era for Greek workers who carried the weight of the crisis on their shoulders,” Labor Minister Effie Acthsioglou told Reuters.

“This decision proves in practice what it means to have a leftist government at the country’s wheel.”

The government’s current term ends in October and Tsipras’ Syriza party is trailing the conservative New Democracy party by up to 12 points in opinion polls.

Labor unions said on Monday the suggested increase was far from offsetting the loss that workers suffered during the crisis. Employers also said that it should be combined with tax cuts and a reduction in social security contributions.

The International Monetary Fund urged Athens last week to introduce greater flexibility into the labour market to mitigate an expected negative impact from its new policies.

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Trump Warns Europeans Not to Try to Evade Iran Sanctions

The Trump administration is closely eyeing efforts in Europe to set up an alternative money payment channel to ease doing business with Iran and avoid running afoul of sanctions the U.S. has levied on the Islamic republic.

The White House is putting the Europeans on notice, saying if they try to do an end-run around U.S. sanctions on Iran, they will be subject to stiff fines and penalties. Unfazed, the European Union is marching forward with the plan, which, if implemented, could further strain trans-Atlantic relations.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said Monday the EU was on the verge of setting up the alternative channel to send money to Iran that would side-step U.S. sanctions on Tehran. He said Germany had been working on it in recent months with Britain, France and other EU partners.

“This has always been our goal and we will implement it,” Maas said.

The EU has struggled to keep alive the Iran nuclear deal since President Donald Trump pulled out of it last year. The bloc has already introduced measures to stop European companies from complying with the U.S. sanctions without authorization from Brussels.

Getting out ahead of a possible announcement, a senior administration official told The Associated Press on Friday that the U.S. will fully enforce its sanctions and hold individuals and entities accountable for undermining them. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the issue.

“The choice is whether to do business with Iran or the United States,” Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., told the AP. “I hope our European allies choose wisely.”

The U.S. joined China, France, Germany, Russia and Britain in signing a pact with Iran in 2015 that offered to lift economic sanctions in exchange for Tehran’s pledge to rein in its nuclear weapons program.

President Donald Trump called it a “horrible, one-sided deal.” He pulled out of the pact last year and restored punishing U.S. sanctions on Iran. Tehran, which denies wanting nuclear weapons, continues to abide by the agreement, and the remaining five nations in the pact are trying to keep it intact.

Restoring the sanctions regime is part of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure campaign” on the Iranians to force them to radically alter their policies on developing ballistic missiles, supporting regional militant groups and violating human rights.

The U.S. has many concerns about the alternative payment system, according to an outside Trump administration adviser. The adviser spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the key U.S. worries.

Long-term, the U.S. worries that the alternative money payment system could become successful enough to compete with the international bank transfer system known as SWIFT. The fear is that it could eventually supplant SWIFT as the leading global vehicle for financial institutions to send and receive information about banking transactions.

Secondly, the U.S. is concerned that other countries might try to route transactions through the European system just to circumvent U.S. sanctions, the adviser said. Thirdly, while the Europeans have signaled that the alternative money transfer system would be used only for humanitarian transactions, the U.S. is suspicious that it could be used for non-humanitarian transactions to evade U.S. sanctions, the adviser said.

“We should oppose efforts to create foreign financial channels that Iran could use to circumvent America’s maximum pressure campaign against it, especially when humanitarian exceptions are already in U.S. sanctions laws,” Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., told the AP.

As the administration prepares for the potential fallout from the possible European move, it is pressing ahead with its sanctions campaign against Iran and preparing to co-host with Poland next month a conference that will focus on combatting Iranian threats.

On Thursday, Treasury imposed sanctions on two Iran-backed militias in Syria and on Qeshm Fars Air, an Iranian civilian airline it accuses of ferrying weapons and personnel to Syria to support President Bashar Assad’s government. The sanctions block any assets those targeted might have in U.S. jurisdictions and bar Americans from doing business with them.

At the same time, the State Department told Congress earlier this month that it would waive some Iranian sanctions to allow U.S. companies to sell spare parts to Iranian airlines, which need them to operate aging, American-built Boeing jets.

The waivers raised questions on Capitol Hill because some lawmakers are weighing legislation to specifically target Iran’s civilian aviation sector. And Iran hawks outside the administration have expressed concern too.

Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said Iran’s aviation sector is being used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, a branch of the Iranian military that has ties to militant networks, which Iran uses to expand its influence in the region and abroad.

“What effective controls does the administration have in place to ensure that the aircraft receiving these licensed services are not facilitating Iran’s support for these destructive activities?” he asked.

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Bashir Seeks Support Abroad as Protests Heat Up

As protests against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir continue, the embattled leader has made visits to Qatar and Egypt in what analysts say is an effort to get diplomatic support to bolster his government. 

Speaking Sunday in Cairo, President Omar al-Bashir said protesters in Sudan are trying to copy the Arab uprising in 2011 that toppled some leaders in the Middle East.

Bashir was visiting Egypt for the second time since the crisis began more than a month ago.

Ahmed Soliman is a researcher with Chatham House.  He says Bashir is looking for support in case he starts to lose his grip on power.

“Sudan has been reaching out to Russia at the same time to balance those relationships with the West in case it deteriorates at a given stage,” he said. “President Bashir has always been pragmatic in his foreign relations, and he continues to do so in terms of trying to maintain a broad base of support for his government at this time in case he loses support from one side.”

The protests in Sudan began in December, with demonstrators demanding the government reduce the prices of fuel and other essential commodities.

Sudan’s economy has been struggling, and foreign currency has been hard to come by since 2011, when South Sudan broke away and took most of the oil reserves.

Human rights organizations have accused Bashir’s security forces of killing and injuring protesters.  Amnesty International says at least 40 people have been killed since the protests began.  Government figures put the death toll at 29.

Amnesty International Sudan researcher Ahmed Elzobier says the situation will get worse if no political solution is found.

“We can imagine the magnitude and the scale of the human right violations at the moment in Sudan,” he said. “Our expectation is this will continue because of the government of Sudan they are not willing to give any concession to the protesters or provide any kind of political draws or to resolve this conflict as government.”

Sudanese media report the protests are spreading despite mass arrests and a harsh crackdown by security forces.

 

Bashir has accused the opposition and armed groups of trying to destabilize his country and the region.

Soliman of Chatham House says Sudan is headed toward a major political showdown.

“You can look at different examples elsewhere, very close in the region in Ethiopia, to see that these kinds of events can take a long time to unfold,” he said. “But what is clear is that at the moment the protesters are very strong in their demands, and the government is also very strong in maintaining its position and it is not going anywhere.”

Bashir has ruled Sudan since 1989, making him the fifth longest serving ruler in all of Africa.  

 

 

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