Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan began a three-day state visit to Germany on Thursday, the latest step in rapprochement efforts after more than a year of acrimony that pushed bilateral ties to the breaking point.

In in op-ed in the Thursday edition of Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper, Erdogan called for bilateral ties to “turn over a new page.”

The arrest of German citizens in Turkey has been a point of contention between the two NATO allies, and Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to press for their release. They include five Germans who Berlin says are being held for political reasons.

Turkey’s human rights record is also seen as a key obstacle in Erdogan’s talks with German leaders. Berlin is a strong critic of an ongoing crackdown following a 2016 coup attempt in Turkey, which led to the arrests of tens of thousands of people and the purging of just as many from their jobs. Erdogan last year accused Merkel of using Nazi tactics after Germany accepted thousands of political refugees in the wake of the failed coup against him.

Erdogan regularly dismisses international human rights criticism, saying the judiciary is functioning normally and merely defending democracy. Some analysts, however, say the human rights issue could sour hopes of a new Turkish-German relationship. They also say the Turkish president will be under pressure to accommodate some of Berlin’s demands.

Others predict that both sides may be keen to prevent human rights from scuppering reconciliation efforts. Berlin’s granting of a full state visit already is seen as a diplomatic victory for Erdogan.

‘Togetherness of necessity’

The Turkish leader now appears to be looking to the future, rather than dwelling on the past, according to analysts.

“It’s a marriage of logic, a togetherness of necessity — they may not love each other, but they have to come together because the strategic and geopolitical imperatives forced both sides together and there is no way out,” said international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. “He [Erdogan] has seen in particular that without the German leader, you cannot do anything on the European continent.”

Erdogan is scheduled to hold several talks with Merkel during his three-day visit, as well as to attend a state banquet Friday in his honor, hosted by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Erdogan’s visit comes as the Turkish economy is facing a crisis, with the currency falling in value by more than 40 percent this year. Analysts predict the Turkish economy is likely to need considerable financial support, given that Turkey owes upward of $140 billion in foreign-denominated loans, much of which is due to be repaid over the next 12 months.

Ankara has repeatedly ruled out turning to the International Monetary Fund for help. Such a move, analysts say, would be politically toxic for Erdogan since he regularly touts freeing Turkey from dependence on IMF support as one of his most significant achievements.

Berlin, along with the wider European Union, is promoted in Turkey as an alternative to the IMF. German and Turkish finance ministers met earlier in September in Berlin for talks that reportedly included possible German financial support.

Johannes Hahn, EU enlargement commissioner, appeared, however, to rule out any wider EU support. “Turkey’s current economic problems are essentially homemade. The situation cannot be solved by the EU or single member states giving out aid packages or credit to Ankara,” he told the German Die Welt newspaper this week.

Separately, Christian Lindner, the leader of Germany’s pro-business Free Democrats, criticized the granting of the state visit, calling it a “propaganda victory” for Erdogan.

Ankara has significant leverage over Berlin in its role as gatekeeper for refugees and migrants entering the European Union. An EU deal with Ankara two years ago resulted in a dramatic drop in migrant numbers leaving Turkey for the EU. Erdogan frequently has warned of ending the agreement.

Opposition to Trump’s moves

U.S. President Donald Trump also is providing major impetus for improving relations between Erdogan and Merkel. The two leaders share opposition to Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the reimposition of sanctions.

With key trading partner Iran providing oil for Turkey, Erdogan has ruled out imposing U.S. sanctions, putting Ankara on a collision course with Washington.

Trump warned Wednesday that anyone who did not comply with U.S. sanctions would “face severe consequences.” U.S.-Turkish relations continue to be profoundly strained for myriad reasons, and in August, U.S. tariffs imposed on Turkish goods triggered a collapse in Turkey’s currency.

Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat, underscores that Berlin is key for Ankara in resisting U.S.-Iranian sanctions.

“The biggest ally for Turkey will be the EU, and among the EU countries it obviously will be Germany, and that is why we must watch very carefully when Erdogan is in Berlin,” said Selcen.

Erdogan is likely to be buoyed by EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini’s Wednesday announcement of an initiative to create an alternative payment system to dollars in an effort to avoid U.S. sanctions in trading with Iran.

The Turkish president is likely to be offered the lure of long-term business contracts with German companies. German media reported manufacturing company Siemens is on the verge of a $35 billion deal to modernize Turkish railways. Analysts point out Ankara will be aware that such mammoth contracts provide an essential incentive to Berlin to support the Turkish economy.
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Dutch police said Thursday that they had arrested seven men suspected of plotting a “major terror attack in the Netherlands.” National prosecutors said they believed the alleged plot has been foiled.

The national prosecutor’s office said in a statement that the suspects were arrested in the towns of Arnhem and Weert.

The statement said the arrests were the result of a months-long investigation based on intelligence suggesting a 34-year-old man of Iraqi descent was planning an attack on a large event that could cause major casualties.

The suspects allegedly had planned to use bomb vests and assault rifles to attack one site, and a car bomb to attack another. Authorities say they are still investigating potential targets.
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Russia and China called Thursday for international sanctions to be eased on North Korea as an incentive for it to denuclearize. The call is seen by the West as jeopardizing the international consensus on pressuring Pyongyang.

“China firmly believes that pressure is not the end,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a high-level meeting of the U.N. Security Council on North Korea. “Both implementing sanctions and promoting political settlement are equally important under Security Council resolutions.”

Wang urged the 15-member council to consider using a provision in its resolutions that allows for modifying sanctions.

“Given the positive developments in inter-Korean and the DPRK-U.S. relations and the DPRK’s important pledges and actions on denuclearization, China believes that the Security Council needs to consider invoking, in due course, this provision to encourage the DPRK and other relevant parties to move denuclearization further ahead,” Wang said. DPRK is the abbreviation for North Korea’s formal name.

Russia’s foreign minister seconded the Chinese proposal.

“Steps by the DPRK toward gradual disarmament should be followed by easing of sanctions,” Sergey Lavrov told council members. He said Western calls for maintaining pressure on North Korea seemed “inappropriate and untimely” given that Pyongyang had taken “important steps toward denuclearization.”

Lavrov said the Security Council should send a “positive signal” to the North and asked why some council members “stubbornly” refused to do so. He said Russia is ready to draft a council resolution supporting the positive momentum around the Korean Peninsula.

US response

Their position is opposite of the United States and most Western countries, which seek to maintain a policy of maximum pressure on Pyongyang until it fully denuclearizes.

“We must not forget what brought us this far: the historic international pressure campaign that this council has made possible through the sanctions that it imposed,” said U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who chaired the council meeting. The United States holds the council’s rotating presidency this month.

“Until the final denuclearization of the DPRK is achieved and fully verified, it is our solemn collective responsibility to fully implement all U.N. Security Council resolutions pertaining to North Korea,” Pompeo said.

Since North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006, the U.N. Security Council has imposed several rounds of increasingly tough targeted sanctions to choke off funding to Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Until now, the council has been united in its approach, but the call to ease sanctions by Beijing and Moscow could signal an end to the council’s unity and ability to pressure North Korea going forward.

Pompeo said he met Wednesday with his North Korean counterpart Ri Yong Ho to discuss how to move forward on commitments made at the June Singapore summit between President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un. He said they also discussed a second summit between the two leaders. Pompeo said he plans to go to Pyongyang next month for more discussions.

Illegal transfers

The United States has accused Russia of “consistent and wide-ranging” violations of the sanctions imposed on North Korea. Specifically, Washington says it has evidence of illicit ship-to-ship transfers of banned items, mainly oil, but increasingly coal and other goods.

Washington said last week it has tracked at least 148 instances this year of oil tankers conducting such illegal transfers of refined petroleum products, netting North Korea more than 800,000 barrels of refined petroleum products. Pyongyang is allowed 500,000 barrels a year under the sanctions.

Also present at the session were the foreign ministers of South Korea and Japan, who both urged international pressure to continue. North Korea did not speak at the meeting, but had diplomats in the room.

Thursday’s meeting was held on the sidelines of the annual meeting of world leaders, who are gathered this week at the General Assembly.
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