International calls for restraint grew Wednesday for Syria and its allies, Russia and Iran, to avoid a bloodbath and humanitarian disaster in Syria’s Idlib province.

The northwestern province along the Turkish border is the last major part of Syria in rebel hands. Syrian forces are surrounding the province, and observers say a multiparty operation may be imminent.

Meeting Wednesday with the emir of Kuwait, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, President Donald Trump called the situation in Idlib “very sad.”

“That cannot be a slaughter. If it’s a slaughter, the world is going to get very, very angry and the United States is going to get angry, too,” Trump added.

When a reporter asked Trump if he was not going to let an attack on Idlib happen, the president said only that he was watching very closely.

The 10 nonpermanent members of the U.N. Security Council issued a joint statement Wednesday urging all parties in Syria to show restraint. They said a military strike on Idlib would lead to a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

The entire council is scheduled to meet Friday to discuss the crisis, while at the same time, the presidents of Turkey, Russia and Iran are planning to hold a summit in Tehran.

Russia and Iran are Syria’s top allies, and Turkey fears another refugee crisis along its border if Syrian forces attack Idlib.

The three nations last year declared Idlib to be a “de-escalation zone,” and Turkey says the cease-fire inside Idlib must not be violated. Moscow, however, has called Idlib a “nest of terrorists,” the word it uses to refer to the rebels.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Russian airstrikes on Idlib killed at least nine civilians Tuesday. 

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with his German counterpart, Heiko Maas, in Ankara Wednesday, in part to send a message to Moscow that such attacks are unacceptable.

Cavusoglu says Russian and Turkish officials have been holding talks on preventing a military strike on Idlib.

“We don’t find it correct that the [Russian raids] happened before the Tehran summit,” he said. “If the problem here is the radical groups, a common strategy needs to be adopted. Joint work can be done to eliminate these groups, but the solution is definitely not to bomb Idlib in its entirety.”

Maas said Germany was also concerned about massive bloodshed and “looming humanitarian catastrophe” inside Idlib.

About 3 million people are in the province. Many of them are rebels and their families who went there after being given a chance to evacuate from other areas formerly held by rebels before Syrian forces moved in.

The Syrian military has been urging the rebels in Idlib to surrender.
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German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas is making a two-day visit to Turkey in the latest step in warming relations between the two countries.

Last year, bilateral relations plummeted to the point that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused German Chancellor Angela Merkel of using “Nazi methods.”

But before leaving for Ankara, Maas  said “we are determined to keep working hard to improve our relations. Turkey is more than a large neighbor, it is an important partner of Germany.”

Maas will meet Erdogan and top Turkish ministers.

The visit is to prepare for Erdogan’s state visit to Berlin later this month, a rare privilege in Europe, analysts say, given Turkey’s poor human rights record.

Looking for help

“There indeed seems to be a warming of relations between Turkey and Germany,” said political analyst Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Edam research group. “Turkey’s relationship with its other big partner in the West, the United States, is under tension. So,there is a real willingness in Ankara to improve the relations with key European countries, primarily Germany.”

Last month’s imposition of U.S. tariffs on Turkish goods triggered a collapse in Turkey’s currency, threatening a financial crisis. The Turkish and German finance ministers are to meet in Berlin later this month to reportedly discuss financial support for Turkey.

Until recently, Erdogan had threatened to look east toward Moscow, in response to souring ties with Washington and Europe. But analysts point out that Turkish financial woes and the deepening crisis in Syria, underscore the limits of Ankara’s relationship with Moscow.

“There was always a consciousness in Ankara that Russia could never really be a strategic partner to Turkey,” Ulgen said. “Namely, there continue to be fundamental differences on how the two countries look at developments in the region, be it Syria, Ukraine, Crimea.”

“Secondly,” he added, “Russia is not an economic partner in the sense that the IMF [International Monetary Fund] or EU could ever be,” he added, “so expectations in terms that Russia could be helpful in an economic downturn scenario in Turkey were always very superficial.”

Human rights

Turkey’s human rights record is seen as a significant stumbling block to any improvement in relations with the EU.

Maas said he would call on Turkish authorities for the release of seven German citizens, which Berlin claims are being held for political reasons.German politicians are accusing Ankara of pursing hostage diplomacy.

Ankara insists the Turkish judiciary is independent. But in the past few months, Turkish courts have released German journalists Deniz Yucel and Mesale Tolu.

Analysts warn if Ankara is seeking significant improvement in its ties with Berlin and the wider European Union, it will have to take substantial steps toward complying with EU standards on human rights defined by the Copenhagen Criteria.

“The EU demand of meeting the Copenhagen Criteria requires having some kind of democratic regime — some kind of independent judiciary, some role for checks and balances,” said political analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners. “You cannot put people in jail for their postings on social media or arrest journalists for writing something Erdogan doesn’t like. These practices need to stop.”

“Ankara is looking for a relationship that is devoid of political conditionality. From the European perspective, that will not be possible,” Ulgen said.

Analysts claim the decline in human rights in Turkey means Ankara’s EU membership hopes are all but finished.

“This vocation of becoming a full EU member is over,” said former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen. “Now, even to renew the customs union is not going to happen this year or next.”

“But yet separately,” he added, “those countries in the European Union are the biggest trade partners of Turkey, and it will remain so,” he added. “Especially Turkey and Germany enjoy a special relationship with many problems, but no country can replace Germany for Turkish industry, and Turkey needs more industrial production to get out of this dire straits in Turkey.”

Analysts say an EU agreement with Turkey to control migrants entering European countries remains a compelling reason for Berlin and the rest of the bloc to improve relations and maintain Turkey’s economic stability.

“Given that both parties now realize that Turkey’s accession is unfeasible, at least for the foreseeable future, a new relationship will have to be defined,” Ulgen said. “A new balance has to be struck overall.”
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Kite Runner” author Khaled Hosseini urged world leaders to “act with compassion” towards refugees as he launched his new book inspired by a Syrian boy who drowned in the Mediterranean trying to reach Greece.

Hosseini said on Wednesday there was a “deeply concerning” shift in attitudes in Europe — where several countries have closed their borders — and called for greater efforts to resettle those fleeing violence and reunite divided families.

“I wrote “Sea Prayer” to pay tribute to those who have perished or gone missing at sea coming to Europe,” said Hosseini at a book launch in London.

The Afghan-American novelist, himself a former refugee, said that while the numbers arriving on European shores had fallen since the height of the refugee and migrant crisis in 2015, the Mediterranean had become more treacherous.

One in 18 people have died attempting the central crossing this year, up from one in 42 last year.

“Sea Prayer” is inspired by Alan Kurdi, a three-year-old boy whose body washed up on a Turkish beach in September 2015, sparking a global outcry.

“When I saw those devastating images … my heart shattered,” Hosseini, a father of two, wrote in a U.N. report this week on migrant deaths.

“Yet, just three years on and despite thousands more people losing their lives at sea, our collective memory and urgency to do better seems to have faded.”

“Sea Prayer” is an imagined letter from a Syrian father to his son, on the eve of crossing the sea to Europe, who does not know if they will still be alive the next day.

“The experience of being a refugee often is escaping one nightmare and falling into another,” Hosseini said.

Agonizing decision

The writer, a goodwill ambassador for the U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR), said he hoped to show the despair that pushes families to leave everything and hand their life savings to smugglers who have little regard for human life.

“It’s agonizing to leave your home,” he told a public event on Tuesday night. “Those boats are vessels of desperation.”

“I think much of what we’re seeing [in Europe] is based at least in part on a poor understanding of who refugees are … and why exactly they are coming.”

He said there was a common misconception that refugees were opportunists seeking better jobs, but all the refugees he had met wanted to go home.

Hosseini was particularly struck by one Afghan refugee he met on a recent trip to Lebanon who told him: “Even heaven is not home.”

The vast majority of refugees did not head west but chose to stay in countries neighbouring their own, Hosseini said, adding that one in six people in Lebanon was a Syrian refugee.

He said governments must keep their borders open and do more to tackle the root causes of displacement, which would increasingly include climate change as well as conflict.

Hosseini, whose novels have sold over 55 million copies, said stories like “Sea Prayer” could help humanize the issue.

“We’re a species hardwired to respond to storytelling. For us to understand something we have to care first, and for us to care first we have to feel something,” he said.

“If you just watch the news and just look at stats … they have a way of blunting our emotional response.”

Hosseini said he was “really proud” that “The Kite Runner” — the book that made his name — had brought a more human face to Afghanistan.

The novel, which tells the story of the friendship between a wealthy Afghan boy and the son of the family servant, was made into a film in 2007.

Proceeds from the sale of “Sea Prayer,” his fourth book, will go to the UNHCR and Hosseini’s own foundation.
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First it was Argentina, quickly followed by Turkey. Now anxious investors and policy-makers are watching with alarm the plummeting currencies of several emerging-market economies, most of which have borrowed heavily in dollars.

The nosediving currencies are prompting fears of a repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crash or the “Tequila Effect” of Mexico’s 1994 financial crisis. Or is something even worse coming — a financial contagion to compare with 2008?

Argentina’s peso dropped 29 percent against the U.S. dollar in August, the worst performer among major emerging-market currencies. Turkey’s currency followed closely, with a 25 percent slide.South Africa’s rand saw an almost 10 percent drop. The Indonesian rupiah fell to its weakest level since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, while India’s currency slid into unprecedented territory against the dollar.

September has seen no major uplift in those currencies. The Turkish lira is down 40 percent to the U.S. dollar this year, sparking mounting alarm over the sustainability of the country’s sizable dollar-denominated debts held primarily by its banks and businesses rather than the government.

The foreign exchange markets are jittery with traders watching to see if more countries start joining the troubled list, which would indicate contagion is underway. African countries like Angola, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Mozambique could be vulnerable. And in a worst-case scenario even more developed economies like Chile, Poland and Hungary, which are also shouldering large foreign-currency debts above 50 percent of their GDPs, could be impacted, say some financial analysts.

Corporate debt in emerging and developing economies is significantly larger than it was before the 2008 global financial crisis.The bigger the debt, the harder the fall.

“The risk is increasing in those countries,” Bertrand Delgado, director of global markets for Societe Generale in New York, has warned.

There is general consensus why emerging markets are in turmoil. Three main developments are blamed:

1 – The impact on market sentiment from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tit-for-tat trade war with China and others

2 – Rising U.S. interest rate that has prompted global investors to exit emerging markets to chase yield in dollar investments

3 – The winding down of post-2008 quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which has reduced liquidity and the availability of cheap money for governments and businesses in emerging markets to borrow.

A global financial crash?

Marcus Ashworth of Bloomberg cautioned last week the emerging-markets sell-off looks contagious.

“The difficulties for emerging markets have entered a new phase.What were once clearly country-specific crises, well contained within their borders, are bleeding across the world,” he warned.

Ashworth, a columnist and a veteran of the banking industry, most recently as chief markets strategist at Haitong Securities in London, added, “One emerging country’s problems have become other emerging countries’ problems, and it’s hard to see how to break the cycle.”

Other analysts dispute that contagion is underway, saying each of the troubled states have their own idiosyncratic problems and country-specific challenges, although they acknowledge the turmoil could mount with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates several times this year.

In a note to investors, DBS, a Singapore-based international financial services group, warned the currencies of Argentina and Turkey “have been struggling with rising U.S. rates since the start of the year, due to deficits in their fiscal and current account balances.

“Heightened trade tensions threatening to erupt into a full-blown trade war could prompt, DBS said, disorderly capital outflows leading to “financial instability, especially in countries that have high external debt levels.”

Britain’s The Economist magazine argues the weakness in emerging-market currencies “is not fundamentally contagious” and the fallout can be contained.Western lenders including banks will be impacted, it said, as emerging-market borrowers struggle to repay dollar and other foreign-currency debts now worth more in terms of their own currencies. “But it would not threaten their [Western lenders’] solvency,” it said.

Optimists say for all the wider currency woes and the economic weakness of Argentina and Turkey, many major emerging-market countries are doing well.

India’s GDP was growing at an 8 percent rate ending June. Mexico’s peso is steady and it appears to have concluded trade negotiations with the Trump White House, which markets are viewing favorably.

The optimists say the global scare is being fanned by screaming, doom-laden headlines, pointing out that in 2013, when the U.S. Federal Reserve started to cease Quantitative Easing, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa all suffered from currency depreciation, but they soon regained their footing.

The biggest emerging-market risk, though, is that rattled global investors could be so alarmed by currency turmoils that they ignore economic fundamentals and stampede away from emerging-market countries, compounding currency falls, triggering indirect contagion, and adding to debt burdens.
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British public opinion on leaving the European Union is still deeply split, according to a survey on Wednesday, indicating only a slight increase in support for remaining a member despite growing pessimism about the outcome of negotiations.

Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, 2019 but has yet to secure an exit agreement to define future relations with Brussels and manage the economic impact of ending over four decades of integration with the world’s largest trading bloc.

Polling showed 59 percent of voters would now vote to remain in the bloc, versus 41 percent who would vote to leave. The findings were published in an academic-led report on Wednesday by research bodies NatCen and The UK in a Changing Europe.

That is the highest recorded support for ‘remain’ in a series of five such surveys since the 2016 referendum and a large reversal of the actual 52-48 percent vote to leave.

But the author of the report, polling expert John Curtice, added a note of caution, saying that their panel of interviewees reported they had voted 53 percent in favor of remain in the original vote – a higher proportion than the actual vote.

“Nevertheless, this still means that there has apparently been a six-point swing from Leave to Remain, larger than that registered by any of our previous rounds of interviewing, and a figure that would seemingly point to a 54 percent (Remain) vote in any second referendum held now,” Curtice said in the report.

The government has ruled out holding a second referendum.

The survey interviewed 2,048 subjects between June 7 and July 8. That means the survey does not fully reflect any change in opinion brought about by the publication of Prime Minister Theresa May’s negotiating strategy, published in early July.

That negotiating strategy has split May’s party at every level and drawn heavy criticism from both Brexit supporters and those who want to retain close ties to the EU.

Nevertheless, the poll shows voters thought the negotiations were going badly even before the publication of May’s so-called Chequers plan.

“Both Remain and Leave supporters have become markedly more critical of how both the U.K. government – especially – and the EU – somewhat less so – have been handling the negotiations,” Curtice said. “They have also become markedly more pessimistic about how good a deal Britain will get.”

Curtice said the results of the polling showed that the most influential factor over whether voters will support the conclusion of the negotiations is their perception of its economic effect rather than the details of any deal.
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