A pan-European rights body said on Friday there were significant concerns about a draft law in Moldova that would change the way the country conducts parliamentary elections and expand the powers of the president.

The proposed changes have proved divisive in the ex-Soviet nation ahead of a parliamentary election next year, when parties who favor closer integration with the European Union will fight it out with pro-Moscow rivals.

At the moment, Moldova elects its parliament under a proportional representation system. The ruling pro-European Democratic Party wants a mixed system, with some lawmakers elected, as now, on party lists, and others running in first-past-the-post constituency races.

On Friday, the Venice Commission, a body that rules on rights and democracy disputes in Europe, decided to accept the conclusion of external experts, who said the new system could be susceptible to undue influence by vested interests.

Their report “raises ‘significant concerns’ including the risk that constituency members of parliament would be vulnerable to being influenced by business interests,” the commission said in a statement.

Like neighboring Ukraine, Moldova has become the subject of a tug of war for influence between Russia and the West.

It has a trade pact with the European Union and its government says it wants even closer integration, but President Igor Dodon, a frequent visitor to Russia, has said Moldova should focus instead on building ties with Moscow.

Earlier in June, Andrian Candu, the speaker of the Moldovan parliament and a member of the Democratic Party, told Reuters he disagreed with the conclusions of the experts’ report, but would work with the Venice Commission on its technical recommendations.

European member states of the commission are committed to respecting its decisions, but Candu said the body should “not … interfere in what we consider to be the sovereign choice of the country.”

Supporters of the electoral change say having legislators represent particular constituencies would enhance the link between parliament and voters. Opponents say it is an attempt to skew the electoral system in favor of the Democratic Party.

Last Sunday, several thousand people took part in demonstrations across Moldova, protesting both in favor of and against the proposed changes.

Moldova has seen three governments fall since 2015, after the disappearance of $1 billion from the banking system plunged the country, Europe’s poorest, into political and economic chaos.
…

Greek stocks rallied to two-year highs Friday after the government struck a deal with European creditors that means the country won’t face another brush with bankruptcy anytime soon.

However, for austerity-weary Greeks, the deal does little to lift the pall from years of belt-tightening.

After months of haggling that raised fears of another escalation in Greece’s nearly eight-year debt crisis, the 19-country eurozone agreed late Thursday to release a further 8.5 billion euros ($9.5 billion) from its current, third bailout after the Greek government delivered on an array of reforms. Getting the money was becoming increasingly urgent because Greece has a big debt repayment hump next month.

Extending repayments

With an eye to the longer term, the eurozone creditors also made clear they are ready to ease the burden of Greece’s debt repayments when its bailout program ends next year, possibly by extending repayments by up to 15 years. The International Monetary Fund may also get involved financially, with up to $2 billion, but only if and when it sees the specifics of the debt relief and agrees it can make Greece’s debt bearable.

“I think that’s really the best agreement we’ve had for quite a while,” said Pierre Moscovici, the top economy official for the European Union, the 28-country bloc that includes the 19 states using the euro.

Even though some details remain sketchy, investors breathed a sigh of relief if just on the mere fact that a deal wasn’t postponed, as has occurred so many times previously. The main Athens stock index hit a two-year high, later closing up 0.8 percent on the day. The yields on both the two-year and 10-year Greek bonds fell, reflecting diminished investor fears of the chances of bankruptcy.

“While the deal might have proved the usual exercise in issue avoidance, the fact is that it’s now unlikely that a fresh crisis will emerge in Greece in July,” said Simon Derrick, chief markets strategist at BNY Mellon.

Greece’s left-led coalition government sought to present the deal as favorably as possible, even though the precise nature of the debt relief has to still be ironed out.

“We had a decisive step yesterday,” Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras told the country’s president. “A decisive step for the country’s exit from the long-running crisis.”

Government spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos said Greece’s European creditors had accepted “nearly all the points that the Greek side was asking for.”

The spokesman highlighted the creditors’ acceptance of a long-standing Greek demand that debt repayments be linked to economic growth, meaning that repayments could be postponed if the economy entered recession.

Less optimism

Outside the government, the view was less rosy.

Dozens of protesting hospital workers held a rally outside the finance ministry building in central Athens, building a fake wall outside the entrance topped with a banner reading “They have made us drown in debt.”

Pictures pinned to the fake wall depicted Tsipras, with a tie pinned to his neck. Tsipras doesn’t wear a tie, and had once joked that the only time he would do so would be on the day Greece won debt relief.

Tsipras, elected in 2015 on promises to repeal bailout-related budget cuts, has lost popularity after implementing further austerity measures in return for the bailout money and a promise on debt relief.

As part of Thursday’s deal, the government committed to deliver primary budget surpluses — that is, a surplus excluding the cost of servicing debt — worth 3.5 percent of Greece’s annual gross domestic product until 2022, and 2 percent thereafter each year until 2060. That is a big commitment for Greece, but seems to have been agreed on in principle to show Greece’s debt can be sustained with help from creditors.

Despite years of spending cuts and tax increases since Greece was first bailed out in 2010, the public sector debt burden stands at about 320 billion euros, or 180 percent of GDP. That’s largely because the economy has contracted by around a quarter, meaning a worsening in the relative debt load even though the budget has improved.

An outright cut in Greece’s debt is not allowed under euro rules, but the length of time the country has in paying back its debts can be extended, and the interest rates can be cut. More comprehensive details should emerge in the coming months.
…

China’s recent detention of Wu Xiaohui, head of the massive insurance conglomerate Anbang Insurance company, is seen by some as a crucial turning point in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on wealthy corrupt business people, or “big crocodiles” as they are called here.

But that turning point is not without its risks, analysts note, given that Wu is said to have powerful political backers and millions of policy holders.

Until recently, Anbang Insurance company was on a global buying spree. The company claims to have nearly $300 billion in assets and was behind some of China’s most high-profile overseas acquisitions in recent years, including the purchase of the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York City. It also tried to buy Starwood Hotels, has ties on Wall Street and has been linked to a potential deal involving U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

Wu not only connected himself with those in power and influence overseas, but at home as well from high-ranking party members to state owned banks. Political analyst Hu Xingdou said Wu’s arrest is a new milestone for China’s anti-graft crackdown.

“This highlights that the country’s financial sector is now under heavy graft scrutiny. The detention of Wu Xiaohui, as a symbolic figure, ushers in the fight against [corrupt] red generations and the industries they work in,” Hu said.

Wu doesn’t necessarily belong to the so-called “red second generation” – the children of China’s revolutionary leaders – but through marriage he is the grandson-in-law to late leader Deng Xiaoping. The two, however, were reportedly divorced recently.

Political analysts said he is also supported by another heavyweight backer, Zeng Qinghong, former vice-president and right-hand man of Jiang Zemin.

Anti-corruption effort

The financial sector is the most corrupt sector of all as it is highly monopolized by the state. That, Hu said, gives room for well-connected people, who have political backers, to pull strings and reap huge gains, for example, in the forms of sweetheart loans.

Wu’s detention, analysts note could be part of a genuine effort to clean up the sector and to send a message to others in the industry. According to the New York Times, in its most recent financial disclosure, nearly three-fifths of Anbang’s assets were overseas.

Chinese regulations stipulate that insurers cannot put more than 15 percent of their assets overseas.

Christopher Balding, a professor at Peking University’s HSBC Business School, said while Anbang was at the very least pushing the boundaries of regulatory limits, so were other companies that were the same size.

“I don’t see anything that Anbang has done differently than anyone else that would warrant detention and so that seems to raise the possibility that there are other factors at play besides strict business issues,” he said.

Some believe Wu’s detention could be part of a larger political struggle.

China’s crackdown on big crocodiles has been gaining steam for more than six months. And one key development, said China leadership analyst Willy Lam, was the abduction of Xiao Jianhua from Hong Kong.

“Xiao Jianhua was what the Chinese call a white glove. A broker for powerful families. Xiao Jianhua was apparently friendly with the family of Zeng Qinghong and other clans,” Lam said. “It is well known that Xi Jinping is now in a power struggle with the Shanghai clique, including Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong.”

Cause and effect

Political connections aside, the potential impact the handling of Anbang could have on society is perhaps even more of a concern. Anbang is not just an insurance company, but is really a massive wealth management company. And any mishandling of it brings big risks.

“The people who bought insurance from Anbang, these are not peasants or urban workers, most of them are middle class families. Some with college education. It will be a big problem. They will definitely make a big noise and hold demonstrations,” Lam said.

Lu Siqi, a professor of economics at Peking University, said while it is still too early to tell whether Wu may have manipulated capital markets, or if his political backers were illegally involved in some way, authorities will take measures to avoid unnerving investors.

“The Chinese government will ensure financial stability – a precondition for its clean-up of the mess left behind by the nation’s financial crocodiles. Shall this jeopardize financial stability, the regulator may resort to some measures, but they won’t be extreme or drastic,” he said.

If it doesn’t get handled properly, however, the company’s 35 million policyholders and share investors will take the first and direct hit, Lu said. And the government may be further forced to step in with a bailout plan – a tab which will eventually be paid by taxpayers.
…

2017 was described as the year that right-wing populists would take charge in Europe, echoing the election of President Donald Trump in the United States. But it has not played out like that at the polls.

Centrist Emmanuel Macron scored a crushing victory in France, and the far-right UK Independence Party was all but wiped out in Britain as the ruling Conservatives lost their majority.

Analysts think Trump may in fact be hindering Europe’s populist right.

British Prime Minister Theresa May was the first foreign leader to visit Trump in January. Media on both sides of the Atlantic focused on the warm reception as the two leaders held hands on the grounds of the White House, but the encounter may have cost May at the polls.

Britain suffered a series of terror attacks before last week’s election, the latest at London Bridge, which killed seven people. Initially, Trump offered the United States’ support, but he later used Twitter to criticize the mayor of London. That led many voters to question Britain’s approach, said Ian Dunt, editor of the website politics.co.uk.

“It’s not a tangible thing, but you just get a sense of the national debate swinging back around a little bit, becoming more wary of America again,” he said.

Le Pen’s defeat

In April, Trump appeared to endorse French far-right candidate Marine Le Pen after the terrorist shooting of a police officer in Paris. Macron soundly defeated her. Polling suggested many French voters disliked Le Pen’s praise of Trump, said Catherine De Vries of the University of Essex.

“It did play a role in the sense that it hindered her chances because of the example that Donald Trump was setting in the United States, which was not necessarily perceived as positive,” she said.

Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris climate agreement also alarmed Europe.

Competing force

“And I think many voters are now realizing and asking themselves: Would voting for anti-establishment right-wing candidates in Europe do them any good?” De Vries said. “I don’t think it’s the end of right-wing populism. I do think that they’re not necessarily the only mobilizers of anti-establishment sentiment. And they just find themselves in competition.”

That’s competition with a new political breed: populist yet centrist. But not all of Europe is converted.

Trump remains popular in the east, in countries like Poland. The president will visit Warsaw next month. No visits are planned for Paris or Berlin — and his proposed state visit to London is on hold.

Analysts say it is a mark of the growing gulf between Washington and Western Europe.
…