Iraq’s Sunni minority is pushing for a greater say in power once the Islamic State group is defeated, reflecting growing sentiment that the country’s government must be more inclusive to prevent extremism from gaining ground once again.
But so far, there’s little momentum. Many Shiite politicians are wary, and the Sunni leadership is divided and disorganized. On the ground, tensions are further stoked because Shiite militias and Kurdish fighters control some mainly Sunni areas recaptured from IS militants and are resistant to withdrawing.
Sunni resentment over disenfranchisement and the rise of Shiite power after the 2003 ouster of Saddam Hussein fueled an insurgency and gave a foothold to al-Qaida. The U.S. military, backed by Sunni tribal fighters, largely crushed al-Qaida. But Sunni bitterness over continued discrimination by Shiites helped in the subsequent rise of the Islamic State group. Each time, the rise of militants only deepened Shiite suspicions that the Sunnis cannot be trusted.
U.S. officials backing Baghdad in the fight against IS have warned repeatedly that the same could happen again now unless the government is made more inclusive.
A historic compromise “is a must, otherwise Iraq will be gone,” Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, the former parliament speaker said.
He and some Sunni factions put together a working paper outlining their stance for talks on a new system, calling for negotiations over dramatic changes to the constitution.
Shiite Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has called repeatedly for unity after the defeat of IS, and Shiite politicians say they recognize the need for more inclusiveness.
“We have big concerns for the post-Daesh period,” said Shiite lawmaker Ali al-Alaq, using an Arabic acronym for IS. He says proper distribution of resources and rebuilding of state institutions are key to keeping the country together.
But any real talks are on hold while fighting rages over the Islamic State group’s last main urban bastion, Mosul.
And already there are fault lines over numerous issues.
The Sunni working paper calls for steps to address their complaints that crackdowns on militants have unfairly hurt their community. It demands a halt to “random arrests,” the freeing of detainees not convicted of crimes and eventually a review of anti-terrorism laws.
Shiite politicians have long resisted those demands, pushing for a tougher fight against terrorism. Shiites, estimated at up to 60 percent of the population of more than 36 million, often suspect the Sunni minority of secret sympathies with militants and of aiming to regain power.
Long term, many Sunnis want provincial governors to have greater control over security forces on their soil, ensuring that Sunnis are patrolling Sunni regions.
But Shiite-led governments have long distrusted local Sunni security forces, at times refusing to arm or pay them. The collapse of mainly Sunni police forces in the face of the IS blitz of 2014 only reinforced Shiite fears that Sunnis would not act against militants.
Intertwined with Sunni security demands is their deep opposition to Shiite militias, which have a major role in the fight against IS but are also accused of abuses against Sunnis. The working paper calls for the disbanding of the government-backed umbrella group of militias, most of them Shiite.
Far from agreeing to disband, however, the militias are pushing for greater official recognition of their power.
Shiite militias and Kurdish fighters hold significant parts of Nineveh province and other mainly Sunni areas. The Federal Police, an overwhelmingly Shiite force, is also fighting in Mosul alongside the military. Sunnis want those forces to leave quickly.
A main Sunni call is for greater authority and resources to be handed down to the provinces, giving Sunnis more say in areas they dominate.
A major issue would be how to distribute government funds. Sunnis have long complained that Shiite-majority areas get favored in budget spending, infrastructure development and directing of investments. That question will become particularly acute after IS’s fall because billions of dollars are needed to rebuild Sunni cities destroyed in the fight against the militants, and there is grumbling that no plan has been put together for reconstruction.
The working paper also calls for significant reforms to ensure Sunnis have a voice in the central government. It demands an end to the system of divvying up government posts that effectively turns ministries into fiefdoms of political factions, particularly Shiite ones.
But that could meet resistance from Shiite parties with entrenched interests. In the eyes of some Shiites, Sunni complaints over Shiite domination only fuel sectarianism.
Iraq faces another possible conflict over the Kurds. The Kurdish autonomous region in the north has repeatedly called for a referendum on full independence from Iraq. Now, Kurdish leadership says such a vote could happen as early as September.
That is potentially more explosive because the Kurds seized extensive areas outside their self-rule zone during fighting with IS. Most notably, they hold the oil-rich central province of Kirkuk, which they have long claimed as their own but has significant Sunni Arab and ethnic Turkmen communities.
Not all Sunni factions have signed onto the working paper. Since Saddam’s fall in 2003, Iraq’s Sunni Arabs have been wracked by divisions and lack a strong political party to press their case in Baghdad.
If a compromise is not reached with Baghdad, it could strengthen calls for Sunnis to demand outright autonomy like the Kurds. So far, that holds limited appeal among Sunnis because their provinces lack resources and would likely be squeezed out of oil wealth.
Still, Atheel al-Nujaifi, the former Nineveh governor, is one of a few calling for a self-rule region. He says the priority is the liberate Mosul, then try talks with Baghdad. But failing that, Mosul residents have the right to create their own region.
“We will still need Baghdad only to protect the borders,” he said.