Bangkok — Ethnic and resistance forces in Myanmar have completely blocked a key trade route to China, halting cross-border commerce and further damaging Myanmar’s already struggling economy.
The Mandalay-Lashio-Muse Road is considered the most strategically important road in the country’s northern Shan State.
Formerly known as the “Burma Road,” locals commonly call it the “pearl necklace,” as it connects Myanmar’s second largest city of Mandalay with the Chinese border. The string of pearls of trade towns already captured by rebel forces include Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Lashio, Hsenwi, Kutkai and Muse near China’s southern border of Yunan province.
Lway Yay Oo, spokeswoman for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, or TNLA, told VOA that right now “there are battles all along the trade route.” That has increasingly been the case, she said, since the second phase of operation 1027 began several weeks ago.
The TNLA is part of the “Three Brotherhood Alliance,” along with the Arakan Army, AA and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA.
The first phase of the 1027 rebel offensive, which is named after the date it began, began on October 27, 2023.
The recent capture of several key towns along the trade route in a relatively short span of time has been widely seen as a potential turning point in the resistance as rebels look to cement control and further loosen the grip of junta forces the region.
The military government isn’t giving in easily, however, with intense battles along the route making trade nearly impossible.
“The TNLA and joint forces control the entire border trade route with the cities of Kutkai, Lashio, Kyaukme and Hsipaw, except for Muse,” Lway Yay Oo added. “Although we are prepared to keep businesses operating, we’ve had to stop border trade due to fierce fighting.”
Myanmar’s trade crisis deepens
The ongoing conflict and capture of key trading towns is already having an impact.
“Myanmar’s trade sector depends mostly on border trade,” said one Yangon-based businessman, who requested anonymity due to security reasons during a phone interview with VOA. “Air trade is very expensive now, and maritime trade takes a long time, so we must rely on border trade routes.”
With main trade routes closed, businesses are looking to find alternate routes.
“Trade flows are slower than they should be, and we are spending more on transportation, leading to further losses,” the man said. There is also an impact on consumers as the ripple effect of higher transportation costs, currency fluctuations and slower trade spreads to the general population.
“When these things happen, consumers also suffer,” he said, adding that right now “with demand so low, our revenue has dropped by about 50%.”
Earlier in June, the World Bank downgraded Myanmar’s economic growth forecast to just 1% for the 2024-2025 fiscal year, citing the intensifying conflict, labor shortages and a depreciating currency as key challenges. And that was just as the second phase of operation 1027 was beginning.
Impacting the junta
According to the Ministry of Commerce’s statistics, the border trade value between Myanmar and China totaled US$416.867 million in the first two months of the current financial year 2024-2025, which began on April 1.
It is a significant decline from the $640.43 million recorded during the same period last year, and a decrease of $223.564 million.
So far, for its part, Myanmar’s military rulers are playing down the impact the conflict is having.
“Despite the challenges posed by recent conflicts, we continue to facilitate trade with our neighboring countries, especially China,” a representative from Myanmar’s Ministry of Commerce said in June, according to state media. The ministry has not commented on the impact fighting has had on the economy since then.
Opposition forces disagree and say the success of the resistance has significantly weakened the junta’s ability to manage the economy, including trade.
“The revolutionary forces have grown stronger militarily and now control more territory,” said Min Zayar Oo, the NUG Deputy Minister of Planning, Finance, and Investment, in an interview with VOA.
Min Zayar Oo added that part of this is because of the junta’s mismanagement.
“Stability and clear policy are essential for business, but the military council has failed to provide this,” he said.
Commodity prices are soaring due to inflation and recent efforts by the junta, such as printing new currency notes, have only worsened the economic situation, he adds.
“Cross-border trade routes are disrupted, foreign currency is scarce, and the junta is struggling to provide basic services. The economic front, like the military front, is already collapsing,” he said.
The economic downturn is also impacting military funding, former army Major Naung Yoe told VOA in a telephone interview.
“No matter how much the junta increases the military spending budget, if the country doesn’t have foreign currency, the military spending will also be affected,” he said.
Border trade stalls, Kyat at record low
As fighting continues and trade stalls and the value of Myanmar’s currency the Kyat plummets, many business owners are hoping a resumption of stability will come soon.
“Every day that the fighting continues, our businesses suffer,” one medium-sized entrepreneur based in Yangon told VOA, who requested anonymity for security reasons. “We rely on cross-border trade, and with the current situation, it feels as though we have been cut off from the rest of the world.”
In late June, the Kyat hit a record low in foreign exchange markets, exacerbating the financial crisis faced by many in the country.
“We are struggling to keep our operations afloat,” another entrepreneur noted. “The depreciation of the kyat is making imports prohibitively expensive, and we cannot raise prices without losing customers.”
As the conflict rages on, the future of Myanmar’s economy remains uncertain, with many calling for an urgent resolution to restore stability and revive trade. “We need peace to rebuild our businesses and our country,” the Yangon based entrepreneur added. “Without it, we are all at risk.”
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