paris — On a warm fall evening five years ago, supporters of the moderate Islamist Ennadha party packed one end of Tunis’ Habib Bourguiba Boulevard, the iconic landmark of Tunisia’s 2011 revolution. The other end hosted a boisterous get-out-the vote for business tycoon Nabil Karaoui — one of 26 candidates running in the North African country’s 2019 presidential race.

Tunisians voting Sunday will face a sharply narrower field. Out of 14 aspiring presidential candidates, the country’s electoral commission — handpicked by current President Kais Saied — approved just three. The first is in prison. The second is considered close to Saied. The third is Saied himself.

“The climate today is one of repression of every form of liberty,” said Kamel Jendoubi, a former minister who headed Tunisia’s first post-revolution electoral commission. “Arrests have multiplied against the opposition. Today all the main political leaders, from the left, center and right, are in prison.”

Jendoubi’s remarks are echoed by a raft of opposition politicians, analysts and rights activists, even as Saied’s supporters praise him for overhauling a corrupt and gridlocked system. Few dispute that after five years in office, the 66-year-old leader has dramatically reshaped Tunisia’s political landscape, even as high unemployment and a struggling economy persist.

With Sunday’s vote seemingly stacked in the president’s favor, some believe a second Saied term could consolidate a return to the country’s authoritarian past. Others suggest Tunisians, notably a young, post-revolution generation, will not tolerate the loss of their fledgling democracy — especially if they judge the vote to be rigged.

“If he’s elected under these circumstances, it will be a weak regime,” predicted Michael Ayari, senior Tunisia analyst for the International Crisis Group policy institute. “And a weak regime will do spectacular things to gain legitimacy.”

Cleaning up

A law professor and political newcomer, Saied catapulted to power in 2019, running a one-man, shoestring campaign. His populist message of rooting out cronyism and returning power to the people resonated among an electorate fed up with years of dysfunctional governance.

Thousands celebrated after Saied clinched runoff elections against businessman Karaoui, capturing 73% of the vote — a score some analysts believe he hopes to match or exceed.

Tunisian taxi driver Mongi Ben Ameur voted for Saied then. He plans to vote for him again on Sunday.

“The former regime, the people in politics, they profited from the country, they profited from the people,” Ben Ameur says. “Saied is trying to clean everything up. We won’t harvest the fruits right away, but he’s done things we haven’t seen before.”

In July 2021, Saied seized widespread powers, ultimately dissolving parliament. Over the next two years, he rewrote the country’s constitution, beefing up presidential powers and reducing legislative ones. Voter turnout to approve each change was low, however, dipping to just over 11% in last year’s legislative polls.

“I think he had this philosophy that he had to destroy everything to rebuild on solid foundations,” said Abdelkaddous Saadaoui, an activist and former Cabinet member, describing Saied’s philosophy which he opposes.

“He’s convinced he’s found solutions for the people,” said Tunisian essayist Hatem Nafti, who authored a newly published book on Tunisia under Saied. “He doesn’t even realize he’s a dictator.”

Under Saied’s presidency, authorities have detained or imprisoned dozens of opposition politicians, activists and journalists, dismissed judges and prosecutors, and weakened free expression and judicial independence. Even as Saied cracked down on corruption, analyst Ayari said, new forms have rooted and flourished.

For now, Saied faces no major challengers. On Tuesday, a Tunisian court toughened a prison sentence against presidential candidate Ayachi Zammel on forgery charges, although he remains on the ballot.

Separately, the elections commission rejected a top administrative court’s decision authorizing three additional candidates to run. Last week, lawmakers hastily passed legislation stripping the court’s authority to decide election disputes.

“He’s afraid of losing,” former minister Jendoubi said of Saied. “When Kais Saied did his coup, he was popular — people went out on the streets to applaud him. But his popularity has dropped considerably, because he’s not been able to resolve people’s problems.”

Challenging times

Internationally, Saied has moved beyond Tunisia’s traditional Western alliances, reaching out to Iran, China and Russia, and rejecting foreign interference.

He struck a controversial deal with the European Union to radically curb African migration to Europe, but rejected a $1.9 billion International Monetary Fund bailout, even as the country’s public debt soars. Prices and joblessness are also high, and the country faces a major water crisis, which the president blames on a conspiracy.

“Mr. Saied has shown little interest in reforms: his economic policy does not go much beyond ranting about speculators and the odd anti-corruption drive (usually aimed at his political opponents),” The Economist wrote recently. “Another five years of this all but ensures that Tunisia’s economy will continue to flounder.”

While some activists still take to the streets, fear has silenced others. One declined to be interviewed over safety concerns.

“We’ve returned to self-censorship,” another Tunisian said. “It’s true that some still dare to speak out, but no one knows when that will be deemed too much.”

Still, one Tunisian businesswoman, with local government experience, does not regret Saied’s tenure. “These are challenging times, but sadly I feel we need to go through this,” she said. “Because in the past, political parties always made agreements to get a piece of the pie instead of serving the people.”

“For the moment, populism works,” said Crisis Group analyst Ayari of Saied. “Because each time he makes a mistake, he says ‘it’s not me — it’s the others, it’s the plotters.’ But if there’s a new narrative saying Kais Saied is responsible, then there will be mobilizations.”Members of Tunisia’s weakened and divided opposition believe change will come, sooner or later.

“I think there will be resistance against Kais Saied if he is going to confiscate power through cheating and repression,” says Ridha Driss, a senior member of the opposition Ennahdha party. “A peaceful political resistance will gain ground, and things won’t last long for Kais Saied.”
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