Moldovan analysts are warning of a Russian “large-scale hybrid war” against their country as it moves toward a presidential election on Sunday, when a referendum on future relations with the European Union will also be held.

Moldova’s incumbent president, Maia Sandu, supports the country’s integration with Europe and enjoys a comfortable lead in opinion polls over her 11 challengers. Sunday’s referendum will ask Moldovan voters whether they support declaring the country’s EU accession as a strategic goal in its constitution.

In an interview with Voice of America’s Russian Service, Victor Zhuk, director of Moldovan State University’s Institute of Legal, Political and Sociological Research, said that Russia believes now is the time to direct all its efforts to preventing Moldova from taking the “European path.”

“There will be a referendum and presidential elections now, and parliamentary elections in 2025, so Russia believes that it is necessary to conduct a large-scale hybrid war against our country,” he said.

According to Zhuk, three of the candidates running against Sandu are “pro-Russian politicians.” He added that while a fourth candidate, former prosecutor and lawmaker Alexandr Stoianoglo, “personally advocates the European path of Moldova,” he was nominated by the Party of Socialists, led by former Moldovan President Igor Dodon, “who also opposes the referendum and the European path.”

“So, the Russian Federation has the ability to torpedo public consciousness in the republic from the outside with various fake news, and there are political parties inside that destabilize the situation and oppose Moldova’s accession to the EU,” Zhuk said.

Alleged attempts at bribery

Sergiu Musteata, a Moldovan historian and dean of the history and geography faculty of Moldova’s Ion Creanga State Pedagogical University, contended that Russia has attempted to “bribe” Moldovan voters to cast their ballots in a way that serves Russia’s interests. He alleged that this attempted bribery involved people connected to Ilan Shor, a fugitive pro-Russian Moldovan oligarch.

“Various people from Ilan Shor’s entourage and even priests were invited to Moscow for instructions, from where they returned with money,” Musteata told VOA. “Now the special services and police of the Republic of Moldova have spoken out on this matter and stated that more than $100 million has been invested in this election campaign against Maia Sandu and against the referendum.”

Earlier this year, Shor reportedly obtained Russian citizenship and identity documents after being sentenced in June 2023 to 15 years in prison for alleged involvement in a $1 billion bank fraud and other illicit schemes. That same month, Moldova’s Constitutional Court declared Shor’s pro-Moscow opposition party unconstitutional.

Shor has been sanctioned by the U.S. and EU for attempts to destabilize Moldova.

According to Musteata, Russia is supporting candidates in Moldova who oppose Sandu while at the same time “calling for a boycott of the referendum, which is very important for the future pro-European vector of the country.” More than 33% of eligible voters must participate for the referendum to be considered valid.

‘Inevitable’ move

Sandu has consistently condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — a position that, according to Zhuk, is shared by a majority of Moldova’s voters.

“Of course, they always think that in the event of Ukraine’s defeat, Russia’s aggression against the Republic of Moldova is practically inevitable,” he said.

On Tuesday, White House national security communications adviser John Kirby told reporters in Washington:

“In recent months, the U.S. government, Moldovan President Sandu, the Moldovan security services, and other allies and partners have warned that Russia is seeking to undermine Moldovan democratic institutions in the lead-up to the presidential election and referendum on Moldova’s EU membership.

“Now, with Moldova’s election just days away, we remain confident in our earlier assessment that Russia is working actively to undermine Moldova’s election and its European integration.”

Kirby said Russia in recent months has put millions of dollars “toward financing its preferred parties and spreading disinformation on social media in favor of their campaigns.” He added that Shor “has invested tens of millions of dollars per month into nonprofit organizations that spread narratives about the election that are in line with Russian interests.”

Kirby concluded by saying that “the United States will continue to support Moldova and the Moldovan people, and to expose and counter Russian efforts to undermine Moldovan democracy.”

This article originated in VOA’s Russian Service.
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