West African nations have given Niger one week to return to civilian rule following the recent coup there and threatened measures including the use of force unless coup leaders return ousted President Mohamed Bazoum to power. The situation complicates the fight against terrorism in the Sahel region.

Confidence MacHarry is a Nigeria-based geopolitical security analyst. He says that the region has lost a key ally who has been serious about the fight against terrorists and extreme groups.

“These guys who launched the coup are senior officers who are far removed from actual fighting,” said MacHarry. “Actual fighting differs from other southern parts of Niger. So, on one hand, the region has lost an important ally in Bazoum in the fight against armed groups. There is not much the new military guys can do in that regard.”

The coup leaders say they acted in response to what they termed Niger’s worsening security situation and lack of action against jihadists.

President Bazoum’s overthrow has raised questions about the fight against al-Qaida and Islamic State in the Sahel region. Experts say the terror groups are gaining ground in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger.

The foreign forces pulling out of these countries are leaving a security gap that terror groups exploit, says David Otto, head of security and defense analysis with the Geneva Center for Africa Security and Strategic Studies.

“When you have forces that are engaged in counterinsurgency and withdraw those forces, the expectation is that you have to replace them,” said Otto. “If you do not replace them, you create an operational gap in the areas of operation so it means that the forces that will be withdrawn will not be immediately replaced. What is happening, for example, in the case of the Niger Republic, is that there will be a consolidation of power by the military. They will not have time to redeploy their forces. The impact could be dire.”

In May, Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, a Ghanian diplomat at the United Nations, said the security situation in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger was deteriorating and that armed groups were persistent in launching attacks against both civilians and the military.

According to the Global Terrorism Index, a yearly study conducted by the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace, the Sahel region recorded 2,880 deaths out of a total of 6,701 global deaths from terrorism in 2022.

Niger’s military leadership has been threatened with sanctions, military invasion and suspension of government funding.

Otto says sanctions and suspension of aid will empower insurgent groups to carry out more regional attacks.

“Resources are quite key, so the junta has to find alternative resources to be able to relocate its strategy to deal with these jihadist groups and it takes time so that also creates a level of vulnerability, so it’s a win-win for the jihadists while this chaos takes place in the short and medium term,” said Otto. “But in the long term we are still left to see these governments that are popping through military coups will be able to deal with it in the battlefield.”

The call for the military leadership to cede power and restore democracy has grown as Bazoum was seen in Chad Sunday, his first public appearance since the coup last week.

The call for the military leadership to cede power and restore democracy has grown as Bazoum was seen in Chad Sunday, his first public appearance since the coup last week.
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