New developments:

French President Emmanuel Macron, during visit to Beijing, says with China’s relationship with Russia it can “play a major role” in achieving peace in Ukraine.
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi reiterated the “urgent need” to protect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine as he met with Russian officials in Kaliningrad.
Russian bank VTB reports $7.7 billion in losses for 2022. Bank officials blamed Western sanctions that targeted Russia’s financial sector after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Poland’s Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk announces resignation amid anger from Polish farmers about effects of Ukrainian grain imports on prices.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled Wednesday to neighboring Poland to meet with leaders there as well as members of the public and Ukrainian refugees who fled after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Polish officials said his talks with President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki would include discussion of the conflict as well as international support and cooperation.

Poland has been a key ally for Ukraine. The U.N. refugee agency says there are 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees who have registered for temporary protection status in Poland.

Poland has also served as a main hub for other Ukrainian partners to send in military and humanitarian aid.

U.S. aid

The United States is providing Ukraine with a $2.6 billion military aid package that includes munitions for Patriot air defense systems and three surveillance radars.

The package also includes hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds along with 155 mm and 105 mm artillery rounds, which Ukrainian forces have continued to quickly burn through as they counter Russia’s illegal invasion.

“Ammunition for HIMARS, for air defense, for artillery is just what we need,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address Tuesday. “Thank you Mr. President Biden, thank you Congress, thank you every American!”

A senior defense official, who spoke to reporters Tuesday on the condition of anonymity, said new equipment in the package such as nine 30 mm gun trucks could “detect and intercept drones such as the Iranian-built Shahed[s]” that Moscow is currently using in the fight.

About $500 million of the aid package announced Tuesday will provide ammunition and equipment from U.S. military stockpiles using the presidential drawdown authority. Another $2.1 billion will buy an array of munitions and weapons for Ukraine in the future.

The U.S. has now pledged more than $30 billion worth of security assistance to Ukraine since the invasion. When viewed as a percentage of donor country GDP, the U.S. ranks about 10th in its security donations to Kyiv.

Some material in this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron are to land in China on Wednesday seeking to “reset” ties with an important economic partner while broaching thorny issues like Ukraine and trade risks.  

Macron last visited China in 2019. It will be von der Leyen’s first trip since becoming European Commission president that year. 

Since then, China’s strict pandemic controls forced all diplomatic meetings online as relations with Europe soured: first because of a stalled investment pact in 2021 and then Beijing’s refusal to condemn Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. 

For Macron, facing embarrassing pension protests at home, the trip offers a chance to land some economic wins as he travels with a 50-strong business delegation, including Airbus, which is negotiating a big plane order, Alstom and nuclear giant EDF. 

However, some analysts said ostentatious deal-signing would appear opportunistic at a time of heightened frictions between the United States and China.  

“It’s not the time to announce business deals or big new investments,” said Noah Barkin, an analyst with Rhodium Group. “It would essentially be a vote of confidence in the Chinese economy and send the message that France is not on board with the U.S. approach.” 

Von der Leyen has said the EU must reduce risks in ties with Beijing, including limiting Chinese access to sensitive technology and reducing reliance for key inputs such as critical minerals, as well as batteries, solar panels and other clean tech products. 

Macron invited von der Leyen on the trip as a way to project European unity, after French officials criticized German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for going solo to China late last year.  

He has pushed the EU to be more robust in trade relations with China and is broadly supportive of von der Leyen’s stance, Macron advisers said, but the French leader has publicly refrained from using strong anti-China rhetoric, Beijing being prone to bilateral retaliatory measures.  

Beyond trade, both have said they want to persuade China to use its influence over Russia to bring peace in Ukraine, or at least prevent Beijing from directly supporting its ally. 

“Both (Macron and von der Leyen) have not only business in mind but also Ukraine,” said Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. “I’m sure it’s not going to be an easy visit.” 

China earlier this year proposed a 12-point peace plan for the Ukraine crisis, which called on both sides to agree to a gradual de-escalation leading to a comprehensive ceasefire. 

But the plan was largely dismissed by the West because of China’s refusal to condemn Russia, and the U.S. and NATO then said China was considering sending arms to Russia, claims which Beijing has denied.  

Suspicions over China’s motives only deepened after President Xi Jinping flew to Moscow for meetings with Vladimir Putin last month in his first overseas visit since securing a precedent-breaking third term as president. 

Macron has said he is also keen to stress to Xi, who he will meet alongside von der Leyen on Thursday, that Europe will not accept China providing arms to Russia. 

“Considering China’s proximity with Russia, it’s obvious it is one of the few countries, if not the only one, which could have a game-changing effect on the conflict, in one way or another,” one of Macron’s advisors said ahead of the trip. 

In a meeting with Xi in Beijing last week, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said he had encouraged the Chinese leader to talk to the Ukrainian leadership and learn first-hand about Kyiv’s peace formula. 

Macron and von der Leyen are expected to echo the message that Xi should also talk to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

After brokering a surprise detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia last month, China has been eager to present itself as a global peacemaker and an alternative to the United States, which it says is fanning flames by sending weapons to Ukraine. 

The talks with European leaders come amid high tension with the U.S. over issues ranging from Taiwan to bans on semiconductor exports, and China is eager that Europe does not follow what it sees as a U.S.-led effort to contain its rise.  

Taking aim at von der Leyen’s comments last week on the risks of trade with China, the state-run Chinese nationalist Global Times warned on Monday that Europe would suffer from any attempt to cut economic ties with Beijing. 

“The EU is in a difficult struggle as it is under great pressure from the U.S. to adjust its economic relations with China. China and EU decoupling will only serve U.S. interests, but make both China and Europe suffer,” it said.  

But aside from some hard talk on Ukraine and trade tensions, the trip will also serve up some lighter opportunities to demonstrate what Macron’s advisor said was an attempt to “reset” diplomatic and economic relations with China. 

On Friday, Xi will accompany Macron on a trip to the sprawling southern port of Guangzhou, where the first French ship reached Chinese shores in the 17th century and where France opened its first consulate.  

After meeting students there, Macron will attend a private dinner and tea ceremony with the Chinese leader who also has sentimental attachment to the city as his late father, Xi Zhongxun, used to work there as provincial first secretary. 

“We believe that this (trip) has very large symbolic significance and suggests that (France) is ready to relaunch cooperation with China,” Henry Huiyao Wang, president of the Centre for China and Globalisation, a Beijing-based think tank. 
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After a relatively low turnout of 40% in Bulgaria’s parliamentary elections that were held on Sunday, results show there was no outright winner, and the parties are headed to coalition talks.

Analysts say the results could influence Bulgaria’s position on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The two-party coalition of GERB-SDS, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, won the early parliamentary elections with 26.51% of the votes, Bulgaria’s Central Election Commission announced on its website, based on unofficial regional results.

The pro-Western reformist coalition We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria, or PP-DB, is in second place with 25%. Revival, with 14% of the votes, is in third place, ahead of DPS, receiving nearly 14% of voter support. The Bulgarian Socialist Party, an heir to the Bulgarian Communist Party, finished with a historically low 9%.

“The biggest setback was the rise of the Russophile Party to third place, gaining 5 percentage points more than last year,” said Margarita Assenova, an analyst at The Jamestown Foundation. “This will boost Moscow’s influence in Bulgaria and potentially increase calls for a peace settlement of Russia’s war against Ukraine, favoring the Kremlin-desired partition of Ukraine.”

At the same time, both likely winners share pro-European, pro-NATO positions and strong support for Ukraine. During former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov’s government, a secret supply of Bulgarian-made ammunition made its way to Ukraine as early as April 2022, as VOA reported. PP and GERB voted to provide Ukraine with military aid last November.

After casting his ballot, Borissov said a stable government in Bulgaria was the only way out of the crisis.

“With this terrible war in Ukraine, with this redistribution of the world and the entire supply chain, we very clearly have to stand with the democratic world,” The Associated Press reported Borissov as saying. Borissov was first elected as Bulgaria`s prime minister in 2009.

In an earlier interview with VOA, Petkov called on EU leaders to introduce the toughest sanctions against Russia in the early days of the full-force invasion and also emphasized his pro-European position at the polls.

“I voted for a normal European life, to have a normal European government, normal European roads, normal European health care, normal European education,” he said, according to the AP. Petkov led the Bulgarian government formed by a coalition of four parties between December 2021 and August 2022.

Despite their similar political positions, forming a coalition between two political forces is not a given, experts say.

“Too much hostility has accumulated in the last year to the point that it has been the official political strategy to deny any possibility of future cooperation,” Hristo Panchugov, assistant professor at New Bulgarian University, told VOA.

The PP and its ally, Democratic Bulgaria, vowed to never collaborate with GERB and its leader, accusing the party of presiding over rampant corruption during its lengthy rule, Borissov has denied the accusation.

“Even small collaborations on shared policy positions will be extremely difficult. With the local elections coming up in the autumn, the parties will be even more hesitant to enter a partnership that might lead them to lose support,” Panchugov said.

But the strong showing of the Russophile parties in this election, Assenova, said, might force two likely winners to cooperate and form a stable two-party coalition.

“It will be a historic chance for GERB and PP to return the country to its hard-earned place and role within Europe and NATO and to wash its face from shameful pro-Russia rhetoric as Moscow’s brutal genocidal war against independent Ukraine continues,” she said.

Ognyan Minchev, professor of political science at the University of Sofia, Bulgaria, points to other forces that push both political forces to form a coalition. The first one comes from regular Bulgarians who are “fed up with the so-called caretaker government of the president, which practically in many important aspects did not govern,” he said.

“Secondly, there is significant pressure from Bulgaria’s partners in the European Union within NATO to create a parliamentary majority and normal functional government, because there are many issues that Bulgaria has to address separately and together with its allies in the context of present-day European and world developments,” Minchev said.

Thirdly, Minchev said both political forces would benefit from joining the government coalition, which would allow GERB to restore its legitimacy after the massive protests in 2020 against corruption in Borissov’s government. It would also help Petkov’s political force maintain its electoral support, which has decreased during the last three election cycles.

If the two leading parties cannot form a coalition, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev will form another caretaker government and schedule another national election. For most of the last two years, except for Petkov’s eight-monthslong government from December 2021 to August 2022, Bulgaria has been ruled by technocratic caretaker governments.

Radev is considered friendly to Russia. Both Panchugov and Assenova point to his opposition to sending military aid to Ukraine.

“He has been exploiting gaps in legislative decisions to limit or reduce support towards Ukraine,” Panchugov said.

“He even disregarded the parliament’s decision to do so. So, we will see another six months of the same, not only regarding the policy towards Ukraine in the war that is going on there, but also in foreign policy, defense policy, rearmament and modernizing of the Bulgarian army,” Assenova said.

She pointed out that the president, whose constitutional role is primarily ceremonial, made most foreign policy and defense decisions during the last two years.

Some information for this report comes from The Associated Press, Reuters and RFE/RL.
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French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrive in China Wednesday for a three-day state visit aimed at discussing trade, human rights, and especially Ukraine with President Xi Jinping, amid ever closer ties between Beijing and Moscow.

The trip will be Macron’s first to China since 2019, and von der Leyen’s first as head of the European Union’s executive arm. Analysts and officials have downplayed expectations for any major outcome, though the two leaders will likely prod China to limit its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“My understanding is it is very much about reengagement,” said Tara Varma, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, who specializes in Indo-Pacific issues.

Macron and von der Leyen are expected to hold talks with President Xi on Thursday. Macron is also scheduled to visit the southern city of Guangzhou.

The trip aims to present a common European front toward China, analysts say, amid growing friction on several fronts. The stakes for improving ties are high for both sides, including China’s position as a top EU trading partner.

In a recent speech that Chinese officials criticized, von der Leyen warned Beijing against directly supporting Moscow in its war on Ukraine and described EU-China relations as “more distant and more difficult.”

Von der Leyen characterized China as becoming “more repressive at home and more assertive abroad.” And she dismissed hopes of resuscitating a stalled investment deal with China, saying it had to be “reassessed” within Europe’s larger China strategy.

Von der Leyen, however, also said the EU did not need to “decouple” from its relations with China.

“That was the hardest hitting and most critical speech that we’ve had on China from a European leader in recent decades,” said Andrew Small, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, and author of a recent book on China, titled, “The Rupture: China and the Global Race for the Future.”

“Although there are elements of this visit that will be about diplomatic reengagement, I think she laid out pretty starkly where the balance of European thinking is really moving,” he added.

Red line?

Macron, who had earlier hoped to visit China at least once a year as president, appears to have greater ambitions for success.

At a minimum, the French presidency reportedly wants China to draw a red line on providing arms to Russia while the war rages in Ukraine.

“Macron also has this hope to secure some form of Chinese support for a peace process, for putting pressure on Russia,” analyst Small said, even as he characterized broader European expectations for that happening as “extremely low.”

Last month, Beijing laid out a 12-point plan to end the war that included calls for a cease-fire, peace talks, and an end to sanctions against Russia. But it did not label Moscow as the aggressor in the war and offered no specifics on its stance toward Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Last week, von der Leyen said any peace plan that consolidated Russian seizures of Ukrainian territory was not viable.

Still, Small said, “there is value in delivering a strong message to the Chinese side that says, ‘The relationship with Europe will be conditioned by how you handle the Ukraine question and your relationship with Russia.’”

Along with Ukraine, Macron and von der Leyen will focus on human rights and economics.

Trade rivalry

Macron is accompanied by a hefty business delegation, composed of CEOs from the energy, transport and aviation sectors. The Reuters news agency reports Macron’s visit coincides with talks on a possible new Chinese order for Airbus planes.

The Europeans have been pressing for a more level playing field when it comes to trade and investment. For its part, China is particularly eager to resurrect an EU investment deal put on hold three years ago, Brookings analyst Varma said.

“I’m pretty sure the Chinese authorities will put the issue to both President von der Leyen and President Macron,” she added. “But there will need to be some guarantees provided by the Chinese authorities in terms of a level playing field, and reciprocity in terms of market access — which is not the case today.”

Ahead of the trip, European Commissioner Thierry Breton warned of the EU’s capacity to inflict economic damage on China as a major market for Chinese goods.

“China is a trade partner, but China is also a systemic rival,” Breton told French radio, “If the (EU) internal market ever closes to China, which I hope will not be the case, that’s four to five GDP points fewer for China.”
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Analysts say the war in Ukraine has been largely a stalemate in recent months, despite high casualty counts on both sides. But in the city of Chasiv Yar, the war has become deadlier and more dangerous week by week. VOA’s Heather Murdock reports. Videographer: Yan Boechat
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