Stockholm, Sweden — As China and Russia look to deepen cooperation in the Arctic, analysts cite concern about increasing geopolitical competition in the region, forcing countries to think more about how to respond to potential threats.
Following a meeting between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Moscow on August 21, China released an expansive communique outlining ways the two countries are boosting cooperation.
On the Arctic, Beijing and Moscow pledged to strengthen cooperation in areas including shipping development, navigation safety, polar ship technology and construction.
“Both countries will encourage their enterprises to actively engage in Arctic shipping routes cooperation based on market principles and pay special attention to the protection of the Arctic ecosystem,” according to the communique.
Analysts say the latest announcement is part of Beijing and Moscow’s efforts to deepen collaboration in areas such as shipping, energy exploration and Arctic security.
“China has invested in Russia’s energy projects in the Arctic, cooperated with Russia in shipping and infrastructure development, and conducted military exercises in the strategically important region,” said Patrik Andersson, an analyst at the Swedish National China Center.
In July, the U.S. Canada North American Aerospace Defense Command revealed that it had tracked two Russian and two Chinese long-range strategic bombers that appeared in the skies off coastal Alaska.
Since 2023, Beijing and Moscow have worked jointly to develop the Northern Sea Route across Russia’s Arctic coastline, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has said is “absolutely fundamental.” The two also signed a memorandum of understanding aiming to deepen maritime security cooperation between their coast guards.
Despite attempts to deepen cooperation in the Arctic, Andersson said there are still several friction points between Beijing and Moscow.
“Russia has historically been wary of inviting China into the Arctic because Moscow views the region as its backyard,” he told VOA in an interview in Stockholm.
“As the bilateral power balance increasingly shifts in China’s favor since the start of the Ukraine War, Russia is becoming more economically and politically dependent on China, which may force Moscow to consider strengthening cooperation with Beijing in some areas where it was previously reluctant to do so,” Andersson said.
And while the recent joint aerial patrol near Alaska has attracted a lot of attention, Andersson said the scope of their bilateral military cooperation in the Arctic remains unclear.
“It’s difficult to determine how much these exercises mean that they are really ready to establish a closer military cooperation in the region or whether they are mainly about posturing and deterring the U.S. and its allies in the Arctic,” he told VOA.
Growing Arctic awareness
Even so, analysts say some Nordic countries are becoming more aware of the potential threat China may bring to the region through its cooperation with Moscow.
“[While] officials in Finland are currently observing the developments in the Arctic, there’s definitely a growing awareness about the potential threats or challenges that come with the growing Chinese presence in the region,” said Minna Alander, an expert on Arctic security at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
She said Russia remains the main driver of the militarization of the Arctic but China could pose challenges to Finland and other Arctic states because of more opaque strategies.
“There’s always this suspicion that most of the research that China is conducting at its research station in Norway’s Svalbard is not purely for ‘the advancement of human civilization,’” she told VOA by phone.
Regional experts note that Nordic countries have yet to come up with a set of strategies to cope with the potential challenges.
“I think we are realizing the complexity of hybrid threats that could be posed by China and Russia [in the Arctic] but we haven’t developed a toolbox to cope with those challenges,” Patrik Oksanen, a senior fellow at the Stockholm Free World Forum, told VOA by phone.
He said economic ties with China complicate Sweden’s attempt to produce a strategic plan to cope with the new challenges.
“There is an unwillingness to do something that could be interpreted as escalating the situation with China, but we will need to address the potential threats that China and Russia pose in the Arctic in a very short time,” Oksanen said.
Ice pact
Alander in Finland said she expects countries like Finland and Sweden, which became NATO members in 2023, to increase cooperation in the Arctic with other NATO allies.
“Finland has an interest in developing relations with [other NATO members] in sectors such as security, economy, and trade, and Finland has gone all in on this transatlantic link,” she told VOA.
In July, the U.S., Canada, and Finland announced a trilateral initiative, called the “Ice Pact,” to collaborate on the production of polar icebreakers.
The Canadian government said the initiative recognizes the “joint priority of upholding safety and security in the Arctic, including the continued protection of long-standing international rules and norms.”
In addition to increasing cooperation with NATO allies, Joar Forssell, a Swedish MP from the Liberal Party, told VOA that lawmakers from Nordic countries also are looking to deepen coordination on issues related to the Arctic.
As NATO countries, along with Russia and China, look to increase cooperation with partners in the Arctic, Alander said the trend likely will lead to greater geopolitical tension in a region that’s long been free from global power struggle.
“There used to be a slogan ‘High north, low tension’ [to describe the state in the Arctic] but unfortunately, it might be more like ‘high north, high tension’ in the future,” she told VOA.
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