HALIFAX, CANADA — With the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding this month, the United States, Canada and Finland are moving ahead on what military analysts see as a belated but much-needed answer to a mounting Russian and Chinese threat in the Arctic Ocean.
Under the arrangement whimsically labeled the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, or ICE Pact, the three nations have agreed to share research, knowledge and capabilities in building a still unspecified number of icebreakers capable of enforcing each nation’s sovereignty in an ocean that has become increasingly navigable because of climate change.
While the retreat of the polar icecap is steadily opening the region for commercial traffic and mineral exploration, the ICE Pact is largely driven by concerns over the Arctic capabilities of an increasingly hostile Russia and the rapidly growing presence of China.
“Up until this past summer, you would expect one Chinese research vessel in the Arctic. This past summer, there were five,” said U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Linda Fagan at a security forum in the Canadian city of Halifax this month.
“This summer they were operating in tandem surface action groups with both China and Russia, 60 to 70 miles off the coast of Alaska,” Fagan added. “If we were to see that same pattern of behavior off the East or the West Coast of the [contiguous] United States, it would have the attention of the United States.”
Speaking at the same forum, Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair said his country has been watching “the activities of two particular adversaries, China and Russia, in the area, which are deeply concerning to us and, frankly, their aggression and assertions in the region are somewhat different.”
Blair said that in passages through the Arctic, the Russians “have not demonstrated respect to the international rules-based order and respect for other countries sovereignty and economic interests.”
China, he said, approaches the Arctic in two ways, the first being significant investment in critical and other infrastructure.
“And the second one is through what they term scientific research. And we’ve seen a huge increase in their presence in the Arctic. And it’s not just scientific research. They’re mapping the sea floor. They’re gathering intelligence,” he said.
Experts say Russia is far ahead of the United States and its NATO allies in icebreaker capability, largely because it has for years been developing a commercial shipping route across its Arctic coast known as the Northern Sea Route. The route is of particular interest to China as a shortcut for its lucrative trade with Europe.
But Russian icebreaking is no longer limited to economic development, according to Heather Exner-Pirot, a global fellow at the Washington-based Wilson Center’s Polar Institute.
“Its first armed combat icebreaker, the Ivan Papanin, is in sea trials and scheduled to join Russia’s Northern Fleet by the end of 2024,” she wrote on the Wilson Center website in July.
“And China is quickly gaining capacity, having commissioned its fourth polar-capable vessel, the Jidi, last week,” added Exner-Pirot, who is also the director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
If the Western alliance hopes to match Russian and Chinese capabilities in the Arctic, it has a lot of catching up to do.
While precise counts vary according to how one defines a polar-capable icebreaker, the CIA World Factbook says Russia has 18 such vessels of varying classes, part of a world-leading fleet of 46 icebreakers including the world’s only two nuclear-powered icebreakers. It has 11 more planned or under construction, according to a chart prepared by the U.S. Coast Guard Office of Waterways and Ocean Policy.
Icebreakers – The World Factbook
Canada ranks second in the world with 18 total icebreakers, according to the CIA World Factbook, but only one is suitable for polar missions. The others are mostly deployed to maintain commercial shipping channels through the St. Lawrence Seaway and the Great Lakes in winter. Canada has two more polar icebreakers under construction and another five planned.
Finland has at least eight polar-capable icebreakers, according to most assessments, and uses them mainly to clear ice around its Baltic Sea ports. It is also regarded as the world leader in the design and construction of icebreakers but has been unable to sell them to its main customer, Russia, since that country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Its expertise will be critical to the ICE Pact program.
The United States has only two operational polar-capable vessels, both of which are nearing the end of their lifespan, a senior administration official told Reuters earlier this year. A third vessel is being cannibalized for parts. The U.S. currently has three more polar-capable icebreakers planned and hopes to secure funding for an additional three, according to a RAND Corporation report.
The U.S. Coast Guard Is Building an Icebreaker Fleet: What Comes Next? Issues and Challenges
“While Russia has steadily expanded its world-leading fleet, and China is making significant inroads, Canada and the U.S. have let their icebreakers age and their shipbuilding capacity atrophy,” Exner-Pirot wrote in her Wilson Center article.
“Even with the recent resolve to reverse trend and commit billions in new dollars to icebreakers, previous neglect has led to shipbuilding programs that are frequently over time and over budget,” she wrote. “The ICE Pact aims to turn the ship around.”
Deep-water ports where the West’s new icebreakers can take on provisions and fuel may be an even tougher problem to solve.
“Russia also has 17 deep-water ports on that [Arctic] Ocean, Canada has none, and so we need to do better,” Blair said at the Halifax International Security Forum. “They also have significant additional capabilities in icebreakers and military presence in the region.”
Canada does hope to open a deep-water naval facility soon at Nanisivik, at the north end of Baffin Island, which would allow it to command the entrance to the Northwest Passage across Canada’s Arctic. But the facility is 10 years behind schedule as a result of logistical and environmental delays.
Due to escalating costs, plans for the facility were scaled back to make it operational for only four months a year rather than 12. The station is primarily intended for use as a refueling station for vessels patrolling Arctic Sea routes.
It remains unclear how many new vessels will be built under the ICE Pact or how soon they will be completed, though it is expected that each of the three participants will send the work to shipyards in its own country.
Finnish shipyards are said to be capable of building an icebreaker within two years, but progress in the United States and Canada has often stretched out much longer.
At the Halifax forum, U.S. Admiral Fagan brushed off a mischievous suggestion that, given the rate at which the Arctic ice pack is retreating, by the time the new icebreakers are completed they may no longer be needed.
“The ability to create year-round presence [in the Arctic] from a sovereignty and defense standpoint requires heavy icebreakers,” she said. “It requires it now and into the foreseeable future. And so, this is not a waste there, but we need to accelerate. We need to continue the partnership.”
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